(BFW) York Capital Sold Entire ~5% Stake in Monte Dei Paschi: Reuters


BFW 11/07 13:10 *YORK CAPITAL SOLD ENTIRE ~5% STAKE IN MONTE DEI PASCHI: REUTERS

York Capital Sold Entire ~5% Stake in Monte Dei Paschi: Reuters
2014-11-07 13:16:55.564 GMT


By Joshua Fineman
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. hedge fund York Capital
Management had been biggest single investor in Monte dei Paschi
di Siena, says Reuters.

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>>> Walt Disney: Color on Quarter

Walt Disney: Color on Quarter

* FBR Capital likes Disney's outlook, and they thought the Sept quarter was fine. But, in this time of heightened secular fears, one data point leaps out of the report, post-close Tuesday, November 6: Even Disney is seeing weak ad pacing. ESPN, right now, is pacing down low to mid single digits for the December Q. The ABC broadcast network, with the strongest trend in the non-sports broadcast audience this season, was down low single digits in the Sept Q. Pacing is a snapshot in time. For ESPN, in particular, this should turn around, with NBA ad sales pacing up 21% (and the NBA season just getting started), an NFL wild card game at the network for the first time this year, and college football playoffs launching this year. But the drumbeat of secular concern for the TV network group beats louder with each successive soft ad outlook; and, on the call, Disney CEO Bob Iger conceded that, at some level, digital is taking at least a modicum of share. 

* Topeka notes after the close, DIS reported FQ4 2014 results. Revs came in at $12.39B, up 7.1% YOY, just missing their projection of $12.41B, on a slight shortfall at Consumer Products relative to our projections. Consensus revenues were $12.37B. On overall operating expenses which came in well below their models on a percentage of sales basis, particularly at Theme Parks and Consumer Products, segment EBIT was $2.78B, up 11.7% YOY, and edging their projection of $2.77B. They would qualify FY16 as a 'crescendo' year for the co given the Star Wars event, and the economic rent that comes with that, which will lift virtually all of DIS' businesses. With that, given near-certainty of a high-teens earnings profile in FY16, their target remains $97. 

* Wunderlich notes that although shares of Hold-rated DIS were under some pressure after the market close following the FQ4 earnings release, they would use any weakness to accumulate shares for investors comfortable with the global macro position. There are 21 franchise tentpole movies to be released over the next three fiscal years, vs. just 13 over the prior three fiscal years, with Marvel IP remaining the most predictable bedrock. 

* Needham notes DIS reported revenue of $12.389B (up 7% y/y and in line with our estimates), Segment Operating Profit of $2.775B (up 12% y/y and in line with their estimates), and Operating EPS of $0.89 (up 16% y/y and 2% above estimates). DIS reported results largely in line with analyst expectations for 4Q14. With regard to Capital Expenditures, mgmt guided to FY15 Cap Ex of ~ $4.8B, $1.5B above FY14 levels of $3.3B; Hold.

* DIS closed at an all time high last night but is now down 2% in the premarket.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: MITK +38.2%, ECOM +33.6%, RMTI +25.3%, RPRX +20.8%, SHLD +17.8%, RPRX +17.8%, MRC +12.9%, ZNGA +11.4%, VPCO +11.1%, PVCT +11.1%, APT +10.4%, INFI +9.6%, LFVN +8.5%, ZGNX +7.4%, GST +7.3%, IDRA +6.4%, NKTR +6.2%, VOLC +5.8%, FICO +5.3%, RDY +4.8%, KING +4.6%, LGF +4.5%, BEBE +4.5%, TCPI +4.4%, TKMR +3.4%, LMOS +3.3%, NVDA +3%, GPS +2.9%, UNXL +2.9%, SWKS +2.8%, NOG +2.6%, SPPI +2.3%, JOBS +2.1%, RIO +2%, VALE +2%, UEPS +2%, MT +2%

Gapping down: SLXP -29.3%, MDRX -17.3%, CPST -16.7%, UBNT -16.5%, YUME -16.2%, OLED -12.6%, KTOS -11.8%, WAVX -10.7%, GUID -9.9%, CTIC -9.7%, GUID -9.4%, SSTK -9.2%, XOMA -7.8%, BPZ -6.7%, SFM -5.7%, FSLR -5.5%, CSC -4.6%, GXP -4.2%, PME -3.9%, DVA -3.8%, RBCN -3.8%, DAR -3.7%, AIRM -3.5%, GSAT -3.2%, NE -2.9%, LOCO -2.9%, REXX -2.5%, IDSY -2.2%, DVCR -1.9%, DIS -1.7%, AGO -1.7%, ELON -1.5%, FTEK -1.4%, SPWR -1.1%, BAC -0.8%

WWD : Cannes: Calling All Shoppers (DFS, WDF...)

Cannes: Calling All Shoppers

CANNES, France — As the worldwide beauty business gears down, converting the burgeoning number of travelers into consumers has never been as important — or complex.

That was a key talking point at the Tax Free World Association annual meeting at the Palais des Festivals here, which ran from Oct. 26 to 31 and was the busiest session in its 30-year history. The number of visitors and companies represented each rose 6 percent versus the 2013 session, to 6,303 and 2,917, respectively.

Despite the unstable geopolitical and economic environment around the globe, which recently caused a noted drop in travelers coming from Russia and China, beauty’s travel-retail business, worth $17.26 billion last year, is poised to grow again in 2014.

The channel has gained such clout that L’Oréal now refers to it as the “sixth continent.”

This year beauty’s travel-retail business is expected to close up 5 percent and with a 7 percent increase in 2015, estimated Jérome Goldberg, managing director of JMG-Research consulting and research company. Such turnouts represent a slowdown from last year, when the category’s revenues increased 9.3 percent, according to industry tracking firm Generation.

Still, the projected percentage upticks strongly outpace the global beauty market, which is expected to advance just 3.5 to 4 percent in 2014 and 3 to 5 percent in 2015, said Goldberg.

Erik Juul-Mortensen, TFWA president, described travel retail as fragile yet resilient and outlined three key challenges.

“The first challenge is penetration and conversion.…After 30 years we have yet to convert enough passengers to be customers,” he said.

According to industry estimates, only 20 percent of passengers enter airport shops today and of those, approximately 50 percent actually purchase beauty products.

“We just have to convert 10 percent more people from travelers to consumers and it will make a huge difference,” said Patrick Bouchard, global travel retail managing director at Puig.

“I think this is the opportunity, but it is also a challenge,” said La Prairie’s Marteau.

Javier Bach, Puig’s chief operating officer, added that the “trinity” — comprised of the airports, retail operators and brands — is working together “to optimize the formula. It’s working, even if there’s more to be done in terms of penetration.”

Moving down his list, Juul-Mortensen said the mobile world is the second challenge facing the travel-retail industry.

“Have we moved on as fast as our customers? No, I think not,” he said, also naming as a challenge the travel-retail business model.

“At what point do the expectations of landlords…become so great that they lead to an unsustainable tipping point, where retailers can no longer invest in high-quality [stores plus new and exclusive products] and as a result fall behind the high street?” he demanded. “The consequences of an unsustainable model would have an impact far beyond our own business.”

Still, travel retail maintained its growth trajectory in the first half of 2014, when fragrance and cosmetics sales advanced 6 percent to $9.24 billion, making up 28.8 percent of the channel’s business — the largest share of any product category, according to Generation.

Helping spur the business were recent strategic developments, many in step with Juul-Mortensen’s pivotal points.

Henrik Ottosson, category manager for perfume and cosmetics at Nuance, noted growth from the entry and premium ends of the beauty spectrum.

“With low-cost carriers…there are new customer groups that we need to cater to,” he said. “We see a continued growth in masstige, where we are working with L’Oréal mass [products].”

These include Maybelline and Essie.

“We have also seen wellness as a very strong and growing segment,” he explained, pointing to brands such as The Body Shop, Origins, L’Occitane, Rituals and Nuxe.

Nuance runs an entry price-point promotion, as well, involving fragrances from brands such as Jean Paul Gaultier, Paco Rabanne, Burberry, Jil Sander and Azzaro, which sell for 19 euros, or $23.70 at current exchange.

“It is doing extremely well,” said Ottosson. “This drives big volumes for the brands. We can’t see any cannibalization [with the brand’s other products].”

On the other end of the spectrum, Nuance has been developing its “premium” and “superpremium” fragrance offers, the latter of which range from 120 euros to 500 euros, or $149.80 to $624.30. The niche scents are in a dedicated zone.

“[Travel retail tries] to be everything for everyone in a way,” said Ottosson. “On local markets, you are either a premium retailer with premium brands, premium execution, premium service, or you are at the other end. But we need to be Boots and Selfridges at the same time, and that is a big challenge. We need to do it in a way that doesn’t alienate any of the customer types.”

Other specificities to the travel-retail channel include swiftly needing to adapt to passengers of diverse nationalities, with their various languages spoken and product preferences. And there’s the rising expense, too.

“We sometime see that the cost of doing business can increase faster than the increase of retail [sales],” said one brand executive.

Some industry insiders said their primary focus has turned back toward their core local consumer, rather than on travelers from emerging markets such as Brazil, Russia, India and China, which remain important nonetheless.

Speaking of the industry overall, Ottosson said: “I think we kind of forgot the core of our business.”

Meanwhile, there are numerous ways World Duty Free is servicing its local consumers, including price positioning and particular types of offers, according to Antonin Carreau, the operator’s global head of beauty.

Overall, World Duty Free is evolving its stores on an ongoing basis, plus focusing on the digital side of the travel-retail business “to better connect with our airport partners, brand partners and consumers before they travel, while they travel and after they travel, for them to know what is happening in our stores,” said Carreau.

Its Shop and Collect service allows travelers to buy before they fly and pick up their purchases on their return, for instance.

“We are going to see a lot more online disruptions,” said Cedric Prouvé, group president for international at the Estée Lauder Cos. Inc. “Travel retail is becoming more and more integrated with what’s going on.”

Olivier Bottrie, president of travel retailing worldwide at the Estée Lauder Cos., suggested that airlines and airport authorities should get together “and think about how we can optimize the potential that comes from people sitting in a chair for 15 hours and flying from New York to Hong Kong. How do we do that?”

“The dream would be to be able to connect consumer data from the airports to the local market, to track the consumers wherever they buy in the world,” said Patrick Rasquinet, president and chief executive officer of the La Prairie Group.

Nonstop connections can be a double-edged sword.

“When you have a smartphone linking you to the whole world, even when you are on the inside of the plane, you are no longer [a captive audience],” said Philippe Guitelmann, travel retail worldwide director of the LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton-owned Guerlain, referring to a 180-degree shift from years past. “What will happen with Wi-Fi on board is that people will be able to compare the price with anybody else.”

“That’s a very big deal,” said Carreau.

Also key to travel retail is service, not least in terms of staffing.

Ferragamo Parfums ceo Luciano Bertinelli said the company has been working to improve the quality of its transactions by adding sales assistants in airport shops. Worldwide, the number has grown to 25, and that’s helped result in double-digit sales gains, he said. And plans are afoot to add more next year.

Coty took to the Internet for its training Web site, introduced in June, called Coty Engage that functions like a chat room, allowing people to fill each other in on tips and tricks of the trade. And the conversations can be translated into Korean and Chinese.

Free-of-charge treatments also bear fruit. At World Duty Free, Carreau noted that they can result in an average transaction almost doubling.

“We are doing hundreds of services in U.K. airports with our brand partners,” he said.

“When we service a customer, as soon as we do a consultation, we have a 92 percent conversion rate,” continued Laurent Marteau, head travel retail worldwide at La Prairie Group.

RELATED STORY: TFWA Annual Meeting Rocks On >>

Also on the service front, DFS Group is among the first operators that will be implementing L’Oréal’s new Kérastase Hair Studio concept, in its downtown Hong Kong location.

The French beauty giant during the TFWA show announced it would introduce dermocosmetics and professional hair care in travel retail for the first time, starting later this year.

The move was made to respond to some unmet beauty needs of travelers, who are ever more diverse, said Olivier Benamou, consumer products general manager at L’Oréal Travel Retail.

“Today we need to have a vast range of portfolio of brands [in travel retail] to make sure we can answer all the desires, all the needs, all the aspirations of [customers],” said Vincent Boinay, the newly minted managing director of L’Oréal Travel Retail.

L’Oréal will launch its Vichy, La Roche-Posay and Kérastase brands beginning in Asia at the end of this year and in the Americas at the start of 2015. The dermocosmetics brands are to be retailed through Dermacenter shop-in-shops.

“That’s something we’re definitely looking at,” said Ariel Gentzbourger, senior vice president, general merchandise manager of beauty at DFS. She added it could answer Chinese people’s concerns about pollution.

DFS is also offering skin diagnostics with its Visia Complexion Analysis machine, which gives product suggestions.

From the brand end of the business, Procter & Gamble said it’s been focusing heavily on its core brands and classic products, according to Bill Brace, vice president of global marketing development and operations at P&G Prestige.

“There is always going to be a role for innovation,” he said. “But 60 percent of the shoppers in this channel are looking for what we call the tried-and-true classics.”

That’s because many people are looking for gifts, and classics are a safe bet. A good example was Boss Bottled Unlimited, a line extension to its classic Boss scent that was recently launched exclusively at Gebr. Heinemann in Frankfurt during the World Cup, a key consumption period.

“The new sku was consistently in the top 10 of rankings,” said Brace.

Also in travel retail, P&G has been broadening the footprint of its SK-II brand.

“We want to win with the Asians in Asia as well as outside Asia,” said Murat Akyildiz, managing director of global travel retail and distributor operations at P&G Prestige. “With the boom of [Asians traveling], we’ve been following their footprint to make sure that we bring SK-II to them wherever they go.”

That included Dubai, London, San Francisco, Los Angeles, and more recently, New York and Toronto.

SK-II partnered with Nuance in Singapore to launch exclusively its Stem Power Essence product.

“It shows how travel retail is becoming the window to the world,” said Akyildiz.

For its part Guerlain is introducing into travel retail in January, prior to the Chinese New Year, a 200-ml. limited edition of its Orchidée Impériale cream. One-thousand units will be available, according to Guerlain’s Guitelmann.

Groupe Clarins decided to aim its innovation fire power at specific nationalities of consumers from various emerging markets, where “we need to adapt more products,” said Nicolas Piquereau, marketing director for the Clarins Fragrance Group and commercial director for Groupe Clarins in the Europe, Middle East, Russia and Asia region. “We realize that our portfolio was mainly European.”

At TFWA, the company previewed a quartet of products, including an oud version of Thierry Mugler’s Alien fragrance, conceived with the Middle Eastern consumer in mind; a reformulated iteration of Shaping Facial Lift, originally targeting Asian consumers that will roll out in Europe next year; Mission Perfect, a serum designed for ethnic skin, and the Mademoiselle Azzaro fragrance, destined to be an exclusive at Russia’s L’Etoile perfumery chain.

Coty Inc. continues to produce sophisticated kits for travel retail. Its OPI nail-polish brand that launched in the channel less than two years ago was highlighting, for instance, a box of six mini-sized enamels created through a venture with Coca-Cola. The colors and clever names are parodies of different varieties of the soda. A kit of six 3.75-ml. bottles retails for 20 euros, or $25.

Increasingly, Coty has been creating kits that cut across product categories. One example is called Summer Party, which includes a seasonal fragrance, OPI nail color and Lancaster sun protection.

“The more you bring entertainment into the store, the more attractive it is to the consumer,” said Markus Stauss, marketing director of travel retail and export worldwide for Coty.

OPI has already sold its fair share, now ranking number-one for nail care in travel retail, according to Generation.

Beauté Prestige International, Shiseido’s fragrance arm, has been investing in visibility for its big brands such as Elie Saab and Narciso Rodriguez in travel retail, said Eric Henry, the company’s chief operating officer.

BPI’s recent animations in the Barcelona airport — taking place both outside and inside stores — involved four brands from different parts of the world that were showcased in a universe, including fashion accessories. They helped increase conversion and sales productivity, continued Henry.

As part of its travel-retail strategy, Bulgari is angling to offer a differentiated product mix from one country to the next, according to Valeria Manini, its perfume business unit managing director.

Shiseido is stretching the reach of its masstige Aupres brand, which is currently sold in the Chinese domestic market through 1,000 doors. It will open three travel-retail locations at the end of this year, including one in Mainland China and two in downtown Hong Kong.

“We really believe it has great potential,” said Elisabeth Jouguelet-Aparicio, worldwide travel retail marketing manager at Shiseido.

The company recently deployed Nars in South Korea, to great success, she said.

As executives look to broaden their travel-retail business, not everyone is convinced that the conversion rate is just 10 percent in the channel.

“I don’t believe it is as bad as we think,” said Estée Lauder’s Bottrie. “Nobody has a real number on a global basis on conversion.”

Prouvé chimed in: “Are you looking at total traffic or people who are seeing your brand? The point is to make the brand visible and accessible. Once people experience the brand they buy. So the conversion is high.

He continued: “The truth is that the fundamentals are fantastic.”

(BFW) Tocos to Offer EU40 Cash/Hawesko Share; Stock Jumps 8%


Tocos to Offer EU40 Cash/Hawesko Share; Stock Jumps 8%
2014-11-07 12:21:57.711 GMT


By Chris Malpass
Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Tocos Beteiligung says it currently
holds 2.65m Hawesko shares.
* Says that’s abotu 29.5% of voting rights
* Shares rise as much as 8.1%, most since August 2011

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WWD : H&M Pushes Growth, Talks Sustainability

NEW YORK — H&M’s ambitious agenda — which includes expanding its product offerings, creating another stand-alone brand and opening more and more stores worldwide — may seem at odds with sustainability and human rights. But not to Karl-Johan Persson, managing director of Hennes & Mauritz AB.

The Swedish retailer this year will open nearly 365 stores — almost one of every day of the year — and the size of those stores is increasing. At a time when retailers such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Target Corp. are building smaller units, H&M in June unveiled a 57,000-square-foot flagship on Fifth Avenue and 48th Street here, and a 63,000-square-foot unit will bow on West 34th Street here next year. H&M delivers dozens of new styles daily to its stores, a massive logistical effort repeated 3,388 times around the world.

Persson defends the retailer’s seemingly endless quest for growth — even as he acknowledges most consumers have enough “stuff.” In his view, H&M needs to grow because “consumption creates lots of jobs. To consume less of everything could have a negative effect on the economy. Sometimes, when we’re speaking about fast fashion, it’s connected to a negative impact on the world. The customer is getting good value for their money. It creates taxes and jobs in developed countries and creates a lot of jobs in the developing world. The one thing is the environment. The right response is to continue consuming, but to consume from companies that are responsible. Tesla is a great example. They’re cracking the code.”

Of course, Persson believes H&M is another responsible company. “On the environmental side, we want to continue to grow while respecting planetary boundaries,” he said. “We have to change how fashion is made. We have to make more with less. We have to go from a linear model to a circular model. We recycle in all stores the H&M brand and other brands. We’ve collected 8,000 tons of garments. We’re closing the loop, getting fibers or yarns back into production again. We’re investing in finding new materials and recycling Tencel. Our R&D is finding solutions for fibers that can be reused and at scale. We’re optimizing this so it can be scaled up. If we do this, we’ll have a major positive impact on the world.”

To the frequent contention that fast fashion is disposable, Persson said, “We want to make fashion affordable, so it’s not throwaway fashion. We see a trend of a lot of companies growing in the low-price area. We want to offer good design and affordable, good quality. We’re investing in improving the quality.”

Persson discussed H&M’s future in an interview following a speech he gave at the BSR 2014 Conference here.


The company’s portfolio includes H&M, COS, Monkey, Cheap Monday and & Other Stories. “We’re looking into new ideas to broaden the H&M concept portfolio,” Persson said in the interview. “It’s too early to talk about, but we’re developing another concept. It’s a new brand. We’re also broadening the H&M brand and developing new categories. We’re constantly growing at H&M, and when we find new concepts that the consumer likes — like sportswear, shoes and home — we’ll make sure we have the space in stores to showcase them.”

H&M was slow to join the e-commerce wagon, launching a transactional site 13 years after its arrival in the U.S. in August 2013. “We’re working a lot on omnichannel,” Persson said. “We’re working on scanning and buying products in store, click and collect, and returning in stores. All stores will be able to access online [e-commerce]. We see our online shop growing faster than our physical stores. We have to find ways to make the in-store experience better and more exciting. One way is customer service. It’s a work in progress.”

The retailer is looking for growth in the U.S. and China, and new markets such as Australia, India, Peru and South Africa. With global sales of $17 billion in 2013, H&M is the second-largest apparel retailer in the world after Zara parent Inditex. The global apparel market is estimated to be $1.1 trillion.

“Do [we] want to be the number-one fashion company in the world,” Persson asked, rhetorically. “When I’ve said, no, people have looked at me like I’m not telling the truth. We want to become the biggest and we could expand quicker in the race to be number one, but who knows where that will take us. If we become number one, we become number one. If it’s three or 10 or one, it will happen [organically].”

Regardless of Persson’s attitude toward growth, the retailer has been castigated for its emphasis on low prices, which naturally lead to low wages in third-world countries where it sources, especially Bangladesh and Cambodia.

“When you look at costs, H&M produces different materials but using the same suppliers as some high-end brands,” he said, arguing that the price consumers are charged for a product doesn’t necessarily impact wages.

During his speech at BSR, Persson said that H&M last year launched with experts and global trade unions a fair living wage road map. “It’s a complex issue,” he said. “It’s based on a four-way collaboration between H&M, our suppliers, the suppliers’ workers and the government [of Bangladesh].

“Higher wages will mean higher prices,” he added. “Are we prepared to pay higher prices without passing them along to the consumer? Yes. It’s already impacting margins. All the pressures are coming from analysts and investors. You have to be prepared to sacrifice short-term profits for long-term profits. There’s too much short-term thinking, especially in the fashion industry. It’s bad for the environment. There is a lot more that can be done from the standpoint of the industry. We’re not in any way alone, but there are companies that are not doing enough.”

Persson said H&M has to “buy more evenly, buy smarter and work with suppliers and the Fair Wage Network, an independent organization. Extreme poverty is falling by 90,000 people every day. We’re leading the way in countries like Bangladesh. Since 1991, the number has been halved. I was in Bangladesh a month ago to visit factories. Overtime has been reduced and wages have increased. We’re investing in training for technical skills and negotiating skills. We’re working with the government to make sure they enforce the labor laws and that salaries are revised annually.”

In its 2013 sustainability report, H&M surprised the fashion industry by listing the names of most, but not all, of its 1,700 factories. “We were a bit hesitant about releasing the list of factories where we do business due to the competition,” Persson said. “We thought we should get it out there and make the fashion industry more transparent and hopefully inspire others to do the same.” The company is now working with the Sustainable Apparel Coalition to develop consumer labeling called the Higg Index that takes into account everything from a product’s raw materials to its end-of-life solutions.

H&M is the world’s biggest buyer of 100 percent sustainable cotton, and the fiber’s share of the total H&M collection is growing and will continue to increase. “We don’t charge more for organic cotton, even though it’s costing us more,” Persson said. H&M is also developing new care labels with Gintex, called Clevercare that remind consumers of the climate impact of washing clothing, and encourages behavioral changes to reduce the environmental footprint of fashion consumption.

H&M’s goal of 100 percent sustainability by 2020 is ahead of schedule, Persson said. His commitment to sustainability and human rights, he said, comes from his grandfather, who in 1947 founded the company. “My grandfather often spoke of the importance of long-term thinking,” he said, “that a business must have wider responsibilities than just building profits.”

FT : EM central banks go their separate ways

Two central banks surprised the world last week with unexpected hikes in interest rates in the face of panicky financial markets. Raising rates a startling 150 basis points, the Central Bank of Russia was reacting sharply to yet another week of runs on the rouble. (It fell further this week nonetheless.)

The other, the Central Bank of Brazil, increased the cost of borrowing by a more modest 25 basis points. It seemed to be attempting to re-establish its independence credentials after the previous weekend’s presidential elections and subsequent worries that economic policy would tend towards the populist and the inflationary.

Yet just as with the advanced economies’ central banks – the Bank of Japan ramping up quantitative easing just as the Fed withdraws – monetary policy has diverged rather than unified in the big emerging economies.

Taking a selection – India, Brazil, South Africa and Turkey from the “fragile five” and Russia for variety – it is clear that the performance of central banks has varied considerably. Not only have interest rates been moved differently, but the very frameworks of monetary policy are evolving in contrasting ways, some improving and some regressing.

All those economies have faced stagflation over the past year and all except Russia a current account deficit (Russia has a surplus, but a shrinking one). This is a tricky bind for central bankers. If economic expansion is slowing but inflation high, it takes a courageous and independent policymaker, eyes fixed on a longer time horizon than that of politicians, to raise rates in the cause of price stability at the risk of worsening growth.

That, though, is exactly what the Reserve Bank of India did under its new governor, Raghuram Rajan. Rajan took over in September last year and soon afterwards surprised investors by tightening, raising the main policy rate in three stages by 75 basis points and focusing on reducing inflation as the RBI’s primary goal. India has been rewarded with consumer price inflation almost halving to 6.5 per cent by this September (admittedly helped by lower food prices) and a relatively stable currency. It has also earned credibility that reduces the need for tightening in the future, particularly since it has resisted some grumbling from politicians about the level of interest rates.

At the other end of the spectrum, in keeping with a national deterioration in economic and political governance, is Turkey. The Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey held benchmark interest rates at the historically low level of 4.5 per cent for the second half of 2013 despite rising inflationary pressure. The bank was then forced to hike rates dramatically to 10 per cent when the Turkish lira collapsed during the second bout of “taper tantrum” this January. Since then it has loosened again, its independence clearly compromised by continual pressure from the government. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, until recently prime minister and now president, has made repeated public demands for looser monetary policy. Perversely, this is likely to lead to higher rates in the long run, as the central bank’s inflation-fighting credibility is eroded.

South Africa and Brazil are middling cases. The Brazilian central bank’s action last week, though unexpected, fitted into its desire to show its political independence. Like the RBI it had already raised rates in the second half of 2013. Yet the fact that this autumn it waited until after the election to tighten policy suggested that its independence is tempered with an unhealthy dose of political calculation.

One of Brazil’s problems is that monetary policy is being asked to do too much. With political constituencies that need placating with public spending, Dilma Rousseff’s administration has not delivered enough fiscal tightening to stabilise Brazil’s public debt ratios and is unlikely to do so. The central bank is having to do what the government will not.

South Africa is in a similar situation to Brazil. Although the SARB has an orthodox inflation goal, it is not an easy target to hit in a small open economy that is frequently buffeted by commodity prices and the exchange rate. Its task would also be greatly eased by fiscal and regulatory policy from the government to increase investment and reduce the current account deficit.

The Russian central bank, meanwhile, has asserted its independence both by hiking rates sharply and by continuing to move towards a free-floating rouble, defying those who thought that Moscow might impose capital controls. The central bank has in effect set itself the honourable but difficult task of coping with capital flight and a falling currency with domestic monetary policy only.

Indeed, the frameworks for central banking in the emerging markets are diverging as much as their recent monetary policy stances. Until the financial crisis, the standard model in central banking was to use one instrument – short-term interest rates – to hit one target – inflation. That framework took something of a battering in the advanced economies after it transpired that low and stable inflation was perfectly compatible with the massive financial and housing bubbles that caused the global crisis. Still, a monetary framework centred on inflation and with measurable and transparent goals is still the anchor for the actions of most central banks, including, in the main, those of Brazil and South Africa.

By this measure, not only is India conducting much better monetary policy than Turkey but its rules are moving in a more positive way. The Reserve Bank of India has traditionally had a confusing plethora of targets and tools, though for historically understandable reasons. In an economy where food prices are bounced around by the monsoon’s effect on agriculture and other unpredictables, a single inflation target based on consumer prices was generally considered inappropriate.

Nonetheless, India has been moving closer towards simplicity and transparency. A commission headed by the RBI’s deputy governor earlier this year recommended the RBI adopt a clear consumer price inflation target of 4 per cent. The government has declared itself in favour if it can specify the target itself and if a monetary policy committee rather than Rajan on his own can decide on interest rates.

In Turkey, by contrast, the central bank’s task has only been compounded by a set of instruments and a confusion of targets which, with historical aptness, might be termed Byzantine. Turkey has a corridor for policy interest rates around four percentage points wide and manages liquidity by shifting operations back and forth from a one-week repo rate to its overnight rate. Meanwhile, the central bank has multiple objectives over and above its inflation target, including economic growth and financial stability.

Targeting several outcomes unsurprisingly means Turkey has missed them all. Inflation has been above the 5 per cent target for the past three years and the economy has slowed sharply. Nor have the central bank’s interventions necessarily delivered financial stability: there has been a rapid increase in private sector leverage and short-term capital inflows during the last five years. The confusing system has also weakened the credibility and hence the impact of monetary policy. The IMF has noted that hikes in short-term rates in Turkey have relatively little effect further down the yield curve, where borrowing costs for companies are generally set.

The central banks of many emerging markets have been faced with similar problems over the past couple of years. But their reactions have taken them in markedly different directions. If the economic slowdown persists, and particularly if capital inflows dry up because of a tightening of global credit, those differences will only become more evident.