(ZH) Is The US Already In A Recession?

Chart Of The Day: Is The US Already In A Recession?

A month ago, when looking at the latest Factory Orders numbers, we noticed something very disturbing: the annual rate of increase, or rather decrease, in factory orders dropped to -2.3%. The last two time this happened was in 2008, just after the failure of Lehman, and in 2001, just as the US was again entering a recession. In fact, if there is one reliable, false-negative proof indicator of key recessionary inflection points in the US economy, it is the annual change in Factory Orders.
Unfortunately for the econo-bulls, and the Fed's rate-hike prospects, moments ago the latest Factory Orders number came out, and it was not good.
Amusingly, on the surface it was actually a beat, rising by 0.2%, relative to the -0.4% expected. However, if one actually looks at the underlying number, February was still a miss, because the January print was revised substantially lower, from $470Bn to $467.5Bn, which means the 0.2% increase was really a0.4% decline relative to the pre-revised number.
What worse, however, is when one looks at the Factory Orders series on anannual basis. It is here that the sequential fudges become irrelevant, and here where it becomes obvious that, all else equal, the US is already in a recession.

And the long-term chart, courtesy of the St. Louis Fed

Finally, ignoring the annual rate of change, here is just the absolute unadjusted number. The message is very clear.

(UBS) IPR against Shire: A Storm in a Tea Cup?

IPR against Shire: A Storm in a Tea Cup?

* Hayman Capital targets Shire Lialda and Gattex with Inter Partes Review
Hayman Capital via the Coalition for Affordable Drugs II LLC filed a petition for Inter
against Shire claiming that Lialda patent '720, which expires on June 8th 2020, was
obvious and should not have been granted in the first place. We also understand that
Hayman Capital could have filed a second petition for IPR against patent Gattex patent
US 7056886 B2 which expires in 2019 (source: http://traderszone.net/).

* A storm in a tea cup? Update expected in 6 months & decision in 2.5 years
Although we cannot rule out that the Patent Office could accept the Inter Partes
Petitions and start an Inter Partes Review (please get in touch if you want to get an
update as to how IPR works) in 6 months; even if they do, we would not expect a final
decision before Q3'17 at the earliest (when taking into account the potential decision
appeals). Should Shire lose the IPR on Lialda that would mean potential generic
competition in late 2017 instead of mid 2020. For Gattex, since the drug is protected
by an Exclusivity Period until 2019 and by a formulation patent until 2022, even if Shire
were to lose a potential IPR, this would have only a small impact on Gattex we believe.

* 4-5% impact on valuation for Lialda and 5-6% for Gattex
Should Lialda generic come in 2017 rather than 2020, and Gattex sales start declining
25% each year from 2019, this would impact our valuation by 11% in total, all else
remaining equal. We consequently believe that, even in a worst-case scenario, the
downside risk on valuation is not significant. We are surprised, however, that Hayman
Capital is challenging Shire as the expected return appears limited to us. Indeed, we
argue that challenging companies using IPR only makes sense if one expects a
potentially significant impact on valuation, as was the case when Hayman challenged
Acorda's Ampyra. However, we believe Hayman targeting Shire might suggest a lack of
more important alternatives.

* Valuation: DCF-based model and NPV models
We value Shire using a DCF-based model for the current business and value each of the
pipeline opportunities using probability weighted NPV models.

Reuters - Exclusive - Greece tells creditors it will run out of cash on April 9

 Exclusive - Greece tells creditors it will run out of cash on April 9
Greece has told its creditors it will run out of money on April 9, making an appeal for more loans before reforms on which new disbursements hinge are agreed and implemented, but the request was rejected, euro zone officials said.

The appeal was made by Athens at a teleconference of euro zone deputy finance ministers on Wednesday organised to assess how far Athens still was from meeting the conditions for unlocking new financial aid.

Greece's appeal echoed remarks by Interior Minister Nikos Voutsis on Wednesday that the country would have to choose whether to pay back 450 million euros to the International Monetary Fund on April 9th or pay salaries and pensions. He said it would choose the latter.

A government spokesman later denied that Greece would miss the IMF repayment deadline. But the choice Athens said it would face was repeated at the closed teleconference with creditors.

Greece can get 7.2 billion euros of new loans from the euro zone and the IMF if it implements reforms that the previous government agreed would be the condition for disbursement.

The new government does not want to implement most of these measures because they go against its election promises of ending budget consolidation policies. It is now negotiating a new list of steps that would keep both sides satisfied.

The Greek representative on the call said that a deal on the reforms should not be a "post mortem" for the country as "there is no way we can go beyond April 9th", euro zone officials said.

He added that holding off with new loans until a deal with creditors can be reached was unrealistic.

But others on the call, including Germany, reiterated that for Greece to get the reminder of the 240 billion euro bailout, Athens would have to agree on the reforms and implement them and there was no chance of releasing the funds on April 9.

Euro zone officials pointed out to Greece that it could manage its liquidity by tapping funds of various entities in the Greek general government and those of state-owned companies, even if it had to pass appropriate laws to do so if necessary.

But Greece repeated that this would not be enough to cover both the IMF repayments and its wage and pension obligations in April after next week.

No resolution was reached on the call regarding what would happen if the talks continue beyond April 9.

NEW REFORM LIST FAR FROM SATISFACTORY

Greece sent a more detailed list of planned reforms to institutions representing the creditors -- the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the IMF -- earlier on Wednesday.

But the list was work in progress and far from satisfactory, representatives of the institutions said on the call.

Some policies, like social measures, went in the right direction, while others still lacked detail or an estimation of how much they would cost, they said.

Others still, like some measures on tax, the labour market, a law to allow the payment of tax debt in instalments or steps to limit the autonomy of public revenue administrations, went clearly against earlier agreed objectives, officials said.

Fiscal reform assumptions were far too optimistic, some officials on the call said.

Euro zone officials said on the call that even though teams of creditor representatives have been in Athens for three weeks, useful work went on only in the last four days and at this rate reaching a deal by the end of April was impossible.

They said creditor representatives were struggling to get information on the policy intentions of the Geek government because Greek officials were sometimes unaware of plans or not allowed to talk about them.

Euro zone deputy finance ministers and the institutions representing the creditors will hold further discussions on Greece on April 8, but it is unlikely that a deal could be reached by then, officials said.

They said the aim was to have an agreed list of reforms, including their impact on the Greek budget by the week of the next meeting of euro zone finance ministers on April 24 in Riga.

>>> Amazon's Dash button : Genious Idea...


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Amazon's Dash Button Is Absolutely Genius article {http://airows.com/gear/amazons-dash-button-is-absolutely-genius}

Nothing is worse than running out of toilet paper, water, or Keurig cups. They're essentials---you can't go a day without having them stocked in your house. Luckily, Amazon came up with a simple and genius idea to help save you from making trips to the market and never go a moment without having what you need. It's called the Dash button.

You place the thing wherever handy--kitchen, bath, laundry--and when you're running low, you tap the button and Amazon delivers what you need in 1-2 business days. No confirming through email, no extra checkout, and no added hassle, so you can skip the last-minute trip to the store and spend more time enjoying life.
Amazon Amazon

It will be free to all Amazon Prime members and you can request an invitation to be one of the first to use by clicking here. Just keep out of reach from the kids.

They only have a few launch partners--Huggies, Smart Water, Gatorade, Tide, etc--but expect the selection to massively open up over the next year.

Watch the video below to get a better understanding of the service. It does a much better job than words ever could.

Wansquare : Vallourec announces its new organization, Speculation intensify

Vallourec announces its new organization
The seamless tube manufacturer announces a new organization of its activities around four regional centers associated with four new appointments. The speculation about a reconciliation to its Japanese partner Nippon
Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation is intensifying.

The producer of seamless steel tubes revises its operational strategy, far organized markets (oil and gas, electric Energy and Industry) announcing Thursday a new organization of its activities around four regional centers (Europe, North America, Eastern Hemisphere and America South), with a view to get closer to its customers and to be more effective: "This new streamlined organization responds to the will of Vallourec strengthen ties with customers and markets, improve efficiency its industrial operations and accelerate the decision-making process, "says
Philippe Crouzet, Chairman of the Board of Vallourec. The four directors regions are part of the "Group Management Committee" and are under the direct responsibility of Philippe Crouzet: Philippe Carlier became Director Europe and also supports the coordination of industrial policy Vallourec, Nicolas de Coignac became Director North America, Didier Hornet is entrusted with the management of the Eastern Hemisphere area (Africa, Middle East, Asia Pacific, North Sea) and Alexandre Lyra was appointed Director of South America.


This new operational organization follows the saving plan unveiled by Vallourec 2015, resulting in 350 million
euros in savings over the period 20152016, or 10% of its costs excluding raw materials, and a reduction of its investment to 350 million per year. Indeed, in an oil very difficult context, the Group net income plunged in 2014 and a net loss of 924 million due to heavy asset impairments ($ 1.1 billion) for a half in Brazil and the other in Europe. Which does not prevent Philippe Crouzet estimate Vallourec able to cross this difficult economic environment by improving its "ability operational ".

Vallourec, whose share price is still at a low of nearly ten years (22.86 euros), continue, meanwhile, to interest future potential buyers. Rumors and speculation in recent weeks focusing more on reconciliation with his partner
Japan's Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corporation (NSSMC), the two companies already