(CS) Syngenta Gearing up for Round 2

We increase our Syngenta target price to CHF450/share and retain our OUTPERFORM rating following the 1H result (average 1-2% EBITDA increases). Our increased target price is a reflection of: 1) 75% chance of a CHF480/share bid being successful; and 2) 25% chance of the bid not being successful (underlying valuation CHF362/share).

* Syngenta's 1H result (in line with consensus after accounting adjustments) provides some earnings/valuation support against the Monsanto proposal at this point in the ag cycle. Earnings quality (considering low cash flow and
adjustments) somewhat impedes the sustainability of the report. However, we believe this is sufficient for Syngenta shareholders to consider a raised bid (CS has previously suggested CHF480/share is still ~5% accretive to Monsanto) as more palatable to shareholders.

* Key Investor Concerns and Regulatory Hurdles Need to Be Addressed: In our view, one of the largest misconceptions pertaining to a MON/SYNN combination is that an "excel analysis" yielding EPS accretion is far from the complete picture and ignores key long term considerations. Based on our analysis, we believe some key regulatory, customer and cultural risks remain underappreciated. While currently the market appears to be giving the "benefit of the doubt" on the financial risk front (fair considering consolidated entity gearing <3x ND/EBITDA), we believe the aforementioned risks still need to be addressed in the intermediate/long term and are not necessarily mutually exclusive.

* Catalyst: Recommencement of discussions between Monsanto/Syngenta, potential for raised bid. Valuation: Monsanto’s current proposed bid (CHF449) implies EV/EBITDA of 14.8x (premised upon FY15F guidance). This represents a ~30% premium to two year averages. At CHF480 (bid price incorporated within our target price) we estimate an implied 15.8x EV/EBITDA.

FT : Fed accidentally releases staff forecasts

Confusion surrounding an inadvertent release of staff forecasts by the Federal Reserve deepened on Friday evening after the central bank said that some of the numbers accidentally put on its website last month were wrong.

The central bank said earlier that it had accidentally released confidential staff projections that were used in the Federal Open Market Committee’s meeting on June 16-17.


The data were posted by a staffer on the website on June 29, some time after Fed chair Janet Yellen’s press conference presenting the FOMC policymakers’ own economic outlooks and rate forecasts. The error was only discovered recently.

Tonight, however, the Fed had to correct part of the forecasts that were on the site, saying only some of them were the numbers that were actually presented to the Federal Open Market Committee last month.

Several of the growth and inflation projections were inaccurate, although projections for the Fed funds rate were the actual ones presented to policymakers at the meeting, the Fed said.

The release is a serious embarrassment to the Fed, which is already facing investigations into a leak of information in 2012. Normally Fed staff forecasts are not revealed until five years after the relevant meeting.

The mishap had already left the central bank open to a fresh round of criticism from Congress, with Jeb Hensarling, the Republican chair of the House Financial Services Committee, saying earlier the “recurring leaks” from the central bank pointed to an urgent need for accountability reforms.

The staff forecasts are a critical input into the Fed’s debate over what to do with monetary policy, although they are secondary to the FOMC members’ own views. They come amid fevered speculation over when the central bank will first lift short-term interest rates, with many analysts predicting the first move will come in September.

The FOMC will meet next week, when the committee is expected to leave rates unchanged, leaving the focus on how its language describing the economy evolves from its last statement. The earliest likely date for a rise from the current near-zero levels is in September, with the median FOMC forecast signalling another move around December.

The staff projections imply relatively sluggish growth even under a shallower path of rate hikes than envisaged by the FOMC members themselves.

The staff envisage the Fed funds rate averaging 0.35 per cent in the fourth quarter this year, rising to 1.26 per cent the same time in 2016 and 2.12 per cent in 2017. That is a lower path of hikes than the median projection by the FOMC, where the rate is seen at 1.625 per cent by the end of 2016 and 2.875 per cent at the end of 2017.


Under those conditions growth would be lacklustre. The now-corrected staff figures suggested that the economy would grow just 1.6 per cent this year, before accelerating to 2.4 per cent in 2016 and 2.2 per cent in 2017, then, sinking back below 2 per cent from 2018 onwards.

Inflation remains below the Fed’s two per cent target until 2020 — although the corrected figures showed it is only a marginal miss. And despite growth running above the economy’s potential rate of around 1.7 per cent in 2016 and 2017, the unemployment rate bottoms out at around 5.2 per cent, only a little below its current 5.3 per cent rate.

That sticky unemployment rate suggests that Fed staff believe there are still a large number of workers sitting on the sidelines who could return to the jobs market and swell the labour force, raising the participation rate.

Janet Yellen, the Fed chair, told congress earlier this month that she still saw some “slack” in the labour market.

The Fed said in a statement that the release of information had been referred to the Board’s Inspector General. “The projections that were inadvertently released are staff projections that do not incorporate policymakers’ views, including their views on monetary policy,” it said.

(BFW) Altice, NextRadioTV Sign Partnership; JV to Bid for NextRadioTV

ONE 07/27 06:01 Altice SA: NextRadioTV and Altice announce a strategic partnership
BN 07/27 06:04 *ALTICE-NEXTRADIOTV JV WILL BID FOR NEXTRADIOTV AT 37EU/SHR
BN 07/27 06:03 *ALAIN WEILL TO HOLD 51% OF ALTICE-NEXTRADIOTV JV
BN 07/27 06:03 *ALTICE SA: NEXTRADIOTV, ALTICE REPORT PARTNERSHIP
Altice, NextRadioTV Sign Partnership; JV to Bid for NextRadioTV
2015-07-27 06:09:43.87 GMT


By Kasper Viita
(Bloomberg) -- Altice-NextRadioTV JV will bid for
NextRadioTV at EU37/shr, 30.5% premium to 6-mo. volume-weighted
avg.

* Alan Weill, main shareholder of NextRadioTV, will control
51% of JV; will join Altice’s executive committee
responsible for media activities
* JV dedicated to investments in media companies w/ focus on
international diversification outside of France

Link to Statement:Link
Link to Company News:{ATC NA <Equity> CN <GO>}
Link to Company News:{NXTV FP <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Kasper Viita at +44-203-525-9219 or
kviita1@bloomberg.net

>>> What to look at today - 27th of July 2015

China markets are leading the selloff in the Asia Pacific, tracking another down day on Wall Street on Friday. Industrial profits decline and some profit-taking going into this week's Fed meeting are also cited behind the cautious sentiment, even though commentary from local officials was optimistic. State Information Center expects foreign trade stabilizing in H2 of this year, with 4% y/y rise in exports and imports falling just over 10%. Unemployment rate is seen at just above 4%, lower than 4.5%. Former PBoC adviser Li also anticipating economic slowdown to be short-lived, with medium term growth estimated around 7%. Lastly, National Energy Administration (NEA) forecast 2015 power consumption - one of Premier Li's preferred indicators to rise 3%, down from 3.8% last year. Controversial expansion of authorization for use of Japan's defense capacity continues to bear heavy political cost for PM Abe and his cabinet. On the monetary front, BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso reiterated the central bank is prepared to adjust policy if needed based on upside and downside risks. Nakaso also pointed to lower oil prices slowing recovery in inflation, noting CPI would be 1% higher if oil price did not decline. Of note in Greece, former Fin Min Varoufakis denied speculation that he and other left-wing members of Syriza govt plotted on raiding Greek central bank reserves and hacking taxpayer accounts to pave the way for return of Drachma currency. Separately, ECB has rejected proposals by Greece to reopen financial markets on Monday and will likely set some temporary trading restrictions on funds from Greek bank accounts before stock trading can resume.

Nikkei-1.13% Hang Seng -2.62% Shanghai-2.76%

Eur$ 1.1004 JPY 123.54 GBP 1.5520 EURCHF 1.05711 RUB $58.35 WTI $47.96(-0.37%)

S&P +0.05% EuroStoxx -0.47% Dax-0.44% SMI-0.04%

Macro :
- Saudi Arabia-Led Coalition to Start Yemen Cease-fire Sunday: SPA
- Egypt in Talks to Buy 2 Corvette Warships From France: AFP
- Italy GDP Seen Rising 0.7% This Yr, ABI Banking Association Says
- Germany Will Help Fund Euro-Region Budget: Schaeuble in Spiegel
- Estonia Affirmed by Moody’s, Outlook Stable
- Greece Seeks New Loan Facility From the IMF: Finance Ministry
- Greece Said to Still Wait for ECB View on Bourse Reopening

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB CEO Declines to Comment on Talks With Shareholder Cevian: SZ
- AAL LN : Anglo American may sell more assets if market toughens - Reuters Link : http://bit.ly/1TZoyEc
- AGN US : Allergan Said to Be Exploring Breaking Up Into 2 Businesses
- ALU FP : Alcatel Says Nokia Deal May Close Earlier Than Planned: Re/code Link ; http://on.recode.net/1KqongS
- BARC LN : UK Banks Hold Out For Bumper Visa Price Tag - SkyNews Link : http://bit.ly/1SHFYmh
- BPTY LN : GVC Teams With Cerberus to Bid for Bwin, S. Times Reports
- CIG US : Cigna push for more Anthem equity was key in deal talks - Deal Reporter
- CNA LN : Centrica to Cut Costs as British Gas Profits ‘Soar’: Telegraph
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse Shouldn’t Blindly Cut Inv. Bank, Herro Tells F&W
- DAI GY : Daimler Seeks to Test Self-Drive Trucks on Highway This Yr: FAS
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse in Definitive Pact to Buy 360T for EU725M
- EDF FP : EDF Board Is Said to Approve Talks on Areva’s Nuclear Business
- EDF FP : French Electricity Bills Could Fall 10% After Tax Reform: JDD
- EXO IM : Exor Confirms Discussion for Possible Economist Stake Increase
- F2i (not quoted) : F2i Raises EU1.25b for Infrastructure Investment Fund: Corriere
- FB US : Facebook’s Marcus Tells Le Temps WhatsApp Will Stay Separate
- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler to Recall 1.7 Million Trucks for Air-Bag Faults, May Face $105m NHTSA Fine for Recalls: WSJ http://on.wsj.com/1LJnqTT
- FNC IM : Finmeccanica Reverses Decision to Sell DRS Technologies Unit: FT
- GE US : GE Books $2.5 Billion African Orders From Oil to Locomotives (1)
- NOK1V FH : Baidu CEO Says ‘Still Interested’ in Nokia Mapping Unit: Re/Code Link : http://on.recode.net/1S0TXIV
- ORA FP : Orange Buys Additional 9% of Meditel, Raises Stake to 49%
- PSON LN : Pearson Confirms Talks With Economist on Sale of 50% Stake
- PSON LN : Economist Shareholders in Talks to Buy Out Pearson: FT
- UG FP : Peugeot, Santander Extend Financing Partnership to Brazil
- PHIA NA : Philips 2Q Adj. Ebita Beats Estimates
- RYA LN : Ryanair 1Q Net In Line; Sees FY Profit at Upper End of Forecast
- SAN FP :  Sanofi, Regeneron Set Praluent Price at $1,120 Every 28 Days Link : http://1.usa.gov/1eoCtne
- SKY LN : Apax in Talks With Advisers on Options for Top Right Group: Sky
- TEVA IT : Teva in Talks to Buy Allergan Generics Business for $40b-$45b
- UBSN Vx : UBS to Post 2Q Profit of About CHF 1.5b, SonntagsZeitung Reports
- FR FP : Valeo 1H Net Rises 34%, Sees FY Margin Growth
- VOW3 GY : VW Considering Cutting Output at China Factories: Spiegel


Press Digest : (all in your inbox)
- FT : Greece bailout monitors question access to ministries
- FT : Oil groups have shelved $200bn in new projects as low prices bite
- FT : Finmeccanica changes tack on US sale
- Reuters : Iran launches charm offensive among wary Gulf Arabs
- FT : More than half of FTSE 350 companies have risky pensions
- FT : Worst-performing hedge funds of the year revealed
- FT : DHL braced for home turf fight with FedEx after TNT deal
- NY Post : Is Apple relying too heavily on the iPhone?
- WSJ : Teva in Advanced Talks to Buy Allergan’s Generic-Drug Unit
- (Barron's) The Slow Economic Recovery Has a Surprising Culprit
- (Recode.net) Baidu CEO: We’re Still Interested in Nokia’s Here Maps
- (Re/code.net) Alcatel-Lucent CEO Says Nokia Deal Could Close Earlier Than Planne

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of July 2015

>>> Up
*AIR FRANCE-KLM RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*AT&S RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*AUTOGRILL SET AS A NEW LONG AT MEDIOBANCA, REPLACES RCS
*BNP PARIBAS RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*DRAX GROUP RAISED TO HOLD VS SELL AT SOCGEN
*FAURECIA RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT SOCGEN
*SAFT GROUPE RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT HSBC
*SOGEFI RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT KEPLER CHEUVREUX
*WEATHERFORD INTL RAISED TO EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> Down
*AKZO NOBEL CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*BPOST CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN
*CEMENTIR SET AS A NEW SHORT AT MEDIOBANCA, REPLACES SOGEFI
*INTESA SANPAOLO CUT TO NEUTRAL VS CONVICTION BUY AT GOLDMAN
*LONMIN CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC (EARLIER)
*MAPFRE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS OUTPERFORM AT MAINFIRST
*NATIXIS CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT GOLDMAN
*RIETER CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT UBS
*TECHNOTRANS CUT TO HOLD AT HSBC

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*CENTRICA RATED NEW EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT 270P
*COOR SERVICE MANAGEMENT RATED NEW BUY AT UBS, PT SEK45
*SSE RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS, PT 1,700P

>>> Call

>>> Asian Update

Asian Mid-session Update: China markets resume decline as industrial profits contract; Japan cabinet popularity plummets further

***Economic Data***
- (CN) CHINA JUNE INDUSTRIAL PROFITS Y/Y: -0.3% V +0.6% PRIOR; YTD: -0.7% v -0.8% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN JUNE PPI SERVICES Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.6%E; 2-year low

***Index Snapshot (as of 03:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.7%, S&P/ASX -0.1%, Kospi -0.5%, Shanghai Composite -1.2%, Hang Seng -2.3%, Sept S&P500 +0.1% at 2,078

***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Aug gold +1.1% at $1,097/oz, Sept crude oil -0.2% at $48.03/brl, Sept copper -0.1% at $2.38/lb
- (KR) South Korea sells 20-yr govt bond, avg yield at 2.560%
- USD/CNY CICC: China may widen trading band to 3% from 2% within next 2 months

***Market Focal Points/FX***
- China markets are leading the selloff in the Asia Pacific, tracking another down day on Wall Street on Friday. Industrial profits decline and some profit-taking going into this week's Fed meeting are also cited behind the cautious sentiment, even though commentary from local officials was optimistic. State Information Center expects foreign trade stabilizing in H2 of this year, with 4% y/y rise in exports and imports falling just over 10%. Unemployment rate is seen at just above 4%, lower than 4.5%. Former PBoC adviser Li also anticipating economic slowdown to be short-lived, with medium term growth estimated around 7%. Lastly, National Energy Administration (NEA) forecast 2015 power consumption - one of Premier Li's preferred indicators to rise 3%, down from 3.8% last year.

- Controversial expansion of authorization for use of Japan's defense capacity continues to bear heavy political cost for PM Abe and his cabinet. Two separate press sources now see disapproval rating for Abe around 50% - his personal high - while one saw approval rating falling to a new low of 38%. That report also suggesting only 26% support the defense legislation. On the monetary front, BOJ Dep Gov Nakaso reiterated the central bank is prepared to adjust policy if needed based on upside and downside risks. Nakaso also pointed to lower oil prices slowing recovery in inflation, noting CPI would be 1% higher if oil price did not decline.

- In FX, USD majors saw modest greenback weakness across the board, tracking declines in US rates for much of last week. USD/JPY fell about 40pips below 123.50, EUR/USD was up nearly 50pips above 1.1010 at its high, and NZD/USD was up about 40pips above 0.66 at its highs. AUD/USD gains were more marginal of just over 30pips toward 0.73. Economists with Westpac said the aussie could fall below $0.70 if commodities continue to fall and Federal Reserve comes out with two 25bp hikes this year in Sept and December.

- Of note in Greece, former Fin Min Varoufakis denied speculation that he and other left-wing members of Syriza govt plotted on raiding Greek central bank reserves and hacking taxpayer accounts to pave the way for return of Drachma currency. Separately, ECB has rejected proposals by Greece to reopen financial markets on Monday and will likely set some temporary trading restrictions on funds from Greek bank accounts before stock trading can resume.

***Equities***
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Shenguan Holdings Group Ltd 829.HK -5.8% (H1 guidance); Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK -8.2% (acquisition); Navitas Ltd. NVT.AU -5.7% (FY15 result)
- Financials: DBS Group Holdings DBS.SG -1.3% (Q2 result)
- Industrials: China Railway Erju Co Ltd 600528.CN -4.2% (parent company being probed); Orient Overseas International 316.HK -2.8% (Q2 result); Sany Heavy Equipment International Holdings Co 631.HK -5.8% (H1 guidance); Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure 1052.HK -2.1% (H1 result); Doosan Infracore 042670.KR +15.6% (Q2 result); Fuji Heavy Industries Ltd 7270.JP +0.2% (Q1 result speculation); Nippon Yusen 9101.JP +2.1% (Q1 result speculation)
- Materials: Allied Cement 1312.HK -7.0% (H1 guidance); Asia Cement China Holdings Corp 743.HK -3.1% (H1 guidance); Millennium Minerals MOY.AU +12.0% (Q2 result); Nippon Steel & Sumitomo Metal Corp 5401.JP -1.3% (FY115/16 result speculation)
- Technology: Boyaa Interactive International Ltd 434.HK -12.8% (H1 guidance); Shenzhen Infogem Technologies Co 300085.CN +2.2% (draft plan for internet insurance)
- Energy: Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry Group Co 601225.CN -4.9% (H1 guidance); China Shenhua Energy 1088.HK -2.9% (separate listing of wind farm assets speculation)

>>> What to look at this Week End - 25th & 26th of July 2015

DowNasdaq-2.21% S&P-2.86%-2.33% Russell-3.24% Nikkei-0.27% Hang Seng-1.13% ShanghEuroStoxx+2.87% ai-1.92% FTSE-2.88%2.21 CAC-2.30% SMI1.08% MIB--1.49% Ibex-2.79% Dax-1.31%

Earnings season has not been kind to equity markets this week. The DJIA fell 2.9%, and the S&P500 and Nasdaq each declined approximately 2.2% through Friday as a broad spectrum of corporate names offered weak June quarter reports. Commodity prices saw the recent declines accelerate aided by a strengthening US dollar: WTI broke below $50 for the first time since early April, copper reached its lowest level since 2009 and gold dropped to levels last seen in 2010, with both metals down more than 3% on the week. Chinese stocks were less volatile in the wake of the massive stabilization effort mounted by the government in recent weeks, but saw more disappointing China PMI data. Greece faded from the headlines even as Prime Minister Tspiras forced through two parliamentary votes to secure political support for a third bailout. The US Treasury market trended higher and by Friday the 10-year note was testing the 200-day moving average for the first time in weeks. The curve flattened when long end rates fell faster than short yields, suggesting traders maybe placing bets the Fed will indeed be able to raise rates later this year.


Macro :
- Saudi Arabia-Led Coalition to Start Yemen Cease-fire Sunday: SPA
- Egypt in Talks to Buy 2 Corvette Warships From France: AFP
- Italy GDP Seen Rising 0.7% This Yr, ABI Banking Association Says
- Germany Will Help Fund Euro-Region Budget: Schaeuble in Spiegel
- Estonia Affirmed by Moody’s, Outlook Stable
- Greece Seeks New Loan Facility From the IMF: Finance Ministry
- Greece Said to Still Wait for ECB View on Bourse Reopening

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB CEO Declines to Comment on Talks With Shareholder Cevian: SZ
- AAL LN : Anglo American may sell more assets if market toughens - Reuters Link : http://bit.ly/1TZoyEc
- AGN US : Allergan Said to Be Exploring Breaking Up Into 2 Businesses
- ALU FP : Alcatel Says Nokia Deal May Close Earlier Than Planned: Re/code Link ; http://on.recode.net/1KqongS
- BARC LN : UK Banks Hold Out For Bumper Visa Price Tag - SkyNews Link : http://bit.ly/1SHFYmh
- BPTY LN : GVC Teams With Cerberus to Bid for Bwin, S. Times Reports
- CIG US : Cigna push for more Anthem equity was key in deal talks - Deal Reporter
- CNA LN : Centrica to Cut Costs as British Gas Profits ‘Soar’: Telegraph
- DAI GY : Daimler Seeks to Test Self-Drive Trucks on Highway This Yr: FAS
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse in Definitive Pact to Buy 360T for EU725M
- EDF FP : EDF Board Is Said to Approve Talks on Areva’s Nuclear Business
- EXO IM : Exor Confirms Discussion for Possible Economist Stake Increase
- F2i (not quoted) : F2i Raises EU1.25b for Infrastructure Investment Fund: Corriere
- FB US : Facebook’s Marcus Tells Le Temps WhatsApp Will Stay Separate
- FCA IM : Fiat Chrysler to Recall 1.7 Million Trucks for Air-Bag Faults, May Face $105m NHTSA Fine for Recalls: WSJ http://on.wsj.com/1LJnqTT
- FNC IM : Finmeccanica Reverses Decision to Sell DRS Technologies Unit: FT
- NOK1V FH : Baidu CEO Says ‘Still Interested’ in Nokia Mapping Unit: Re/Code Link : http://on.recode.net/1S0TXIV
- ORA FP : Orange Buys Additional 9% of Meditel, Raises Stake to 49%
- PSON LN : Pearson Confirms Talks With Economist on Sale of 50% Stake
- PSON LN : Economist Shareholders in Talks to Buy Out Pearson: FT
- UG FP : Peugeot, Santander Extend Financing Partnership to Brazil
- SAN FP :  Sanofi, Regeneron Set Praluent Price at $1,120 Every 28 Days Link : http://1.usa.gov/1eoCtne
- SKY LN : Apax in Talks With Advisers on Options for Top Right Group: Sky
- TEVA IT : Teva in Talks to Buy Allergan Generics Business for $40b-$45b
- UBSN Vx : UBS to Post 2Q Profit of About CHF 1.5b, SonntagsZeitung Reports
- VOW3 GY : VW Considering Cutting Output at China Factories: Spiegel


Press Digest : (all in your inbox)
- FT : Greece bailout monitors question access to ministries
- FT : Oil groups have shelved $200bn in new projects as low prices bite
- FT : Finmeccanica changes tack on US sale
- Reuters : Iran launches charm offensive among wary Gulf Arabs
- FT : More than half of FTSE 350 companies have risky pensions
- FT : Worst-performing hedge funds of the year revealed
- FT : DHL braced for home turf fight with FedEx after TNT deal
- NY Post : Is Apple relying too heavily on the iPhone?
- WSJ : Teva in Advanced Talks to Buy Allergan’s Generic-Drug Unit
- (Barron's) The Slow Economic Recovery Has a Surprising Culprit
- (Recode.net) Baidu CEO: We’re Still Interested in Nokia’s Here Maps
- (Re/code.net) Alcatel-Lucent CEO Says Nokia Deal Could Close Earlier Than Planne

FT : Greece bailout monitors question access to ministries

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Greece bailout monitors question access to ministries

Negotiators from Greece’s bailout monitors will fly to Athens on Monday to formally begin talks on a €86bn rescue after days of delays over whether the Greek government would allow creditors to have full access to staff and facilities.
Despite an agreement that gives teams from the EU and the International Monetary Fund access to some ministries and data, officials said only middle-ranking technical teams — and not mission chiefs — would participate for now.

The IMF, which last week scrapped its €28bn bailout programme that was originally to run until March, on Friday received a request from Athens for a new rescue. It is unlikely to send negotiators until later in the week, officials said. Opening talks on an IMF programme must first be approved by the fund’s board.
The decision to send lower-level negotiators on Monday is the latest sign of concern among Greece’s creditors that, despite the summit agreement two weeks ago to restart talks, there remain deep differences on the way forward that could still derail negotiations before an August 20 deadline.
The most contentious issue, according to officials involved in the talks, is whether Athens will need to implement additional reform measures to receive quick aid under the bailout programme.
Creditors have insisted the two rounds of reforms passed by the Greek parliament this month were prerequisites to getting the talks started. They also served as the conditions for a €7bn bridging loan from the EU that prevented Athens from defaulting on a bond owed last week to the European Central Bank.
They insist that Greek authorities will have to legislate for more reforms — known as “prior actions”, because these must be passed before aid is disbursed — to gain any payments under a new three-year bailout programme.
Athens is resisting any additional reform measures, officials said, arguing the measures already passed should be all that is required for the first tranche of aid.
“This, at present, is the big, fat, issue,” said one official involved in the talks. “They do not want to understand that there will be yet another significant package of ‘prior actions’ before any disbursement. They already have implementation fatigue after two mini-bills.”
Some eurozone countries, including Germany, are pushing for another round of “prior actions” to be passed by the Greek parliament even before a new memorandum of understanding is agreed with creditors. Officials said that if creditors decided to demand additional measures before inking the deal, they would probably serve as the “prior actions” for the first bailout disbursement as well.

Officials had hoped to finish an agreement by August 11, when a meeting of eurozone finance ministers has been tentatively scheduled to approve a bailout programme. The quick pace is intended to get a deal in place before Athens owes another €3.2bn on a bond held by the ECB on August 20.
But officials said the differences remained so significant that they could require the EU to agree another €5bn bridging loan so that talks could continue into the autumn. In addition to the €3.2bn needed for the ECB bond, officials said about €500m is needed for interest payments and a small loan repayment to the IMF. The remaining cash would be used to meet government wage and pension payments.
Despite the decision to send negotiators back to Athens, officials said there were still differences over venues and access to staff and ministries. The health and labour ministries are resisting opening themselves to bailout monitors, although the government accounting office — which tracks all national accounts and is seen as a crucial source of reliable figures on the state of Greece’s finances — will now be accessible.
Because of differences over the venue for talks, the Greek central bank, which is a short walk from the finance ministry and other government buildings near central Syntagma Square, has offered to host negotiations if logistical issues cannot be ironed out.

FT : Oil groups have shelved $200bn in new projects as low prices bite

Oil groups have shelved $200bn in new projects as low prices bite

The world’s big energy groups have shelved $200bn of spending on new projects in an urgent round of cost-cutting aimed at protecting investors’ dividends as the oil price slumps for a second time this year.
The sell-off in oil has been matched by a broader slump in copper, gold and other raw materials, pushing the Bloomberg commodities index to a six-year low over concerns of weaker Chinese growth and rising supplies across the board.

The plunge in crude prices since last summer has resulted in the deferral of 46 big oil and gas projects with 20bn barrels of oil equivalent in reserves — more than Mexico’s entire proven holdings — according to consultancy Wood Mackenzie.
Among companies postponing big production plans while they wait for costs to come down are UK-listed BP, Anglo-Dutch Royal Dutch Shell, US-based Chevron, Norway’s Statoil, and Australia’s Woodside Petroleum.
Research from Rystad Energy, a Norwegian consultancy, found in May that $118bn of projects had been put on hold, but the Wood Mackenzie survey shows the toll is now much greater.
The decline in Brent crude, which has more than halved in the past year, was triggered by Opec’s decision not to cut output in the face of a US supply glut and weaker-than-expected demand. After stabilising in March, oil prices have faced renewed pressure, with Brent falling below $55 a barrel this month — a 20 per cent decline from a five-month high reached in early May.
More than half the reserves put on hold lie thousands of feet under the sea, including in the Gulf of Mexico and off west Africa, where the technical demands of extracting crude and earlier inflation have pushed up the cost of projects.
Deepwater drilling rigs cost hundreds of thousands of dollars a day to hire and these projects could yet proceed if contractors’ costs fall far enough.
Canada is the biggest single region affected, with the development of some 5.6bn barrels of reserves, almost all oil sands, having been deferred.
“The upstream industry is winding back its investment in big pre-final investment decision developments as fast as it can,” Wood Mackenzie said in a report to be released on Monday. “This is partly because it is one of the quickest ways to free up capital in response to low oil prices.”

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It added that the number of major upstream projects expected to be fully approved during 2015 could probably be counted “on one hand”.
Shell, which stunned the energy industry with a £55bn agreed offer for BG Group in April, will this week set out deeper cuts to its capital spending this year, revising downwards its most recent estimate of $33bn expenditure.
France’s Total is expected to reveal it has managed greater efficiency savings than expected just a few months ago, while it is thought BP is likely to spell out the impact of falling supplier costs on its overall spending.
The Europe-based integrated oil groups should reveal second-quarter earnings about 20 per cent below those for the first three months of 2015, with Brent having averaged $63 a barrel, more than 40 per cent below levels a year ago, said Neill Morton, an analyst at Investec. Lower trading profits and seasonal maintenance could offset the impact of improved refining margins.