(Spiegel) Possible deal between Athens and Moscow: Greece hopes

Possible deal between Athens and Moscow: Greece hopes for Russian pipeline billion {http://bit.ly/1cLXXdu}

Already on Tuesday could Russia and Greece to SPIEGEL ONLINE information sign a pipeline agreement. Athens expects billion revenue. The Kremlin stressed that there was no financial assistance.

Greece relies on money from Russia to gain room for maneuver in debt dispute. The governments in Athens and Moscow are planning an agreement, which involves billions. Contracts for a pipeline project with the name Turkish stream could be signed this coming Tuesday, said a senior SYRIZA man SPIEGEL ONLINE.

Turkish Stream would bring Russian gas to Europe from 2019, lead the line by Greece. Whether the pipeline will be built or can not say. The project would definitely take years to complete, and it should withstand critical scrutiny of the EU.

Whether the plans are ever implemented, is for the Greek government currently but secondary. Athens expects shortly to get three to five billion euros of Russia - as an advance on future profits that could take the country by the transit fees.

Back numbers would not need the money the Greeks before 2019, ie the date on which the pipeline will be put into operation. If the project should be abandoned, the payment from Moscow could be interpreted to be a secret loans. Athens also hopes to further positive effects: The project could arise 20,000 jobs - and falling gas prices in the country.

The Kremlin responded on Saturday afternoon on SPIEGEL ONLINE report. The spokesman of President Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Peskov, said they had not offered any financial help Greece, because it was therefore not asked. But "natural" would have the "energy cooperation" discussed during their meeting in Moscow, Putin and Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras last week. These discussions would now be continued at the employee level.

How close is Greece from bankruptcy?

Greece desperately needs new money, the country facing bankruptcy. If there is no compromise with international donors reached, the government must soon decide: use debt or pay wages and pensions? They officially denied, however, that she ran out of money.

According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE almost all payments in the public sector are already frozen, which are not absolutely necessary: wages for civil servants to contract payments to suppliers of the Greek army. In this situation, payments from Russia would be a welcome help.

Russia wants Ukraine to deal with Turkish Music from 2019 as a transit country for its gas. President Putin had presented the plan during a visit to Ankara in 2014. The planned pipeline would reach Greece from Turkey and about 450 km run through the country, before it leads to Macedonia.

Some analysts think the project is unrealistic. It could also fail as previously planned by Russia South Stream pipeline . This should lead gas from Russia through the bottom of the Black Sea to Bulgaria. The project was abandoned in late 2014 after disputes between Russia and the EU. ( Click here for important questions and answers about South Stream .)

Brussels is also the new project skeptical about the feasibility and fears that Russia would disagreement between the EU countries stoke.

SYRIZA wants energy policy "without prejudice"

The Greek Energy Minister Panagiotis Lafazanis, leader of the left wing SYRIZA, argues that Russia is central to Europe's energy supply. Last week he said at a meeting in Lithuania that Greece pursues an independent and open energy policy, "to build without prejudice and without walls that isolate certain countries".

In a radio interview Lafazanis criticized the attitude of Germany. It wanted by the expansion of the Baltic pipeline establish a monopoly on gas transmission in Europe. He can understand the reaction of the Western European countries, but Greece should not continue to behave like a banana republic.

During his visit to Moscow Putin and Greek Prime Minister had Alexis Tsipras talked about the Turkish Stream project, the Athens preferably referred to as "Greek pipeline". The cooperation between the two countries on energy issues could also be extended to the oil sector. Athens hopes that Russian companies apply for drilling projects in the Ionian Sea, off the southeast coast of Crete.

On April 7, Foreign Minister of Greece Nikos Kotzias had also discussed in Budapest with his counterparts from Hungary, Serbia, Macedonia and Turkey's pipeline plans. The Ministers therefore supported the establishment of an economically viable alternative for the forwarding of natural gas by their states in the Central and Eastern European countries.

In sum, Russia and Greece could in the coming days to sign an agreement that provides for the construction of a new pipeline - the project's Turkish stream, because the lines will lead via Turkey to Greece. The deal could bring three to five billion euros Athens. However, some analysts think the project is unrealistic.

(ZeroHedge) This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened

This Technical Signaled The Last Two Market Crashes And It Just Happened

So the fundamental case for a 20 year bull run as BMO is calling for and certainly many other banks seem to be onboard with that is not looking great YTD. In fact, most perma bulls have shy’d away from even mentioning fundamentals other than to say that generally they aren’t looking great but don’t worry the Fed is still engaged. And so I feel its a worthwhile exercise to have a look at the technicals. Thing about the technicals is that you can cherry pick any baseline point to really make any case, good or bad. But if we take a look at a time period that encompasses several cycles we negate our ability to cherry pick the baseline and we can be much more confident in our overall analysis.

So what I’ve done is taken a two decade period of S&P pricing which encompasses several cycles. Mid 1990′s was a market mid cycle having recovered from the short recession of the early 1990′s but before things really began heating up in the late 1990′s. If we just have a gentle look at the chart we see we’ve had a couple large cycles with fairly extreme booms and subsequent busts. Currently we are in the midst of the third boom which has taken us to new all time highs. Now even a 5 year old can look at the chart and say at some point this thing has a large down turn, same as it always does. That’s easy to see and not many will argue it. But as so many bulls remind us we could have said the same thing about this chart a year ago and we’d have missed out on significant returns. Very true. So the key is then figuring out where the down turn begins. I know I know that’s the kind of stuff you have to go to biz school for eh. Ok so let’s first have a look at the easy chart.

So pretty simple. Two full cycles and into the third which doesn’t tell us much. Let’s add some markers to see if we can’t pick up on some technical cues.

So what we’ve done is run a 2.5 standard deviation Bollinger Band (BB) using a 100 period moving average looking at monthly returns because we are interested long cycle technical cues. We’ve also run Relative Strength Indicator (RSI) using 20 periods. What we find is actually quite notable. During the tech bubble cycle we saw the S&P rise to the upper BB where it tracked the upper band for some time. During that same period we saw the RSI move above 70. Now as the market peaked we saw the S&P move below the upper BB and we also saw a decline in RSI. What is very interesting is that the point where RSI dropped below 70 is the point the tech bubble burst and sent S&P into a free fall. The market continued to sell until the RSI dropped below 30 at which point the market stabilized and reversed higher.

This took us into the start of the credit bubble cycle. Here the RSI move up very quickly and plateaued just below 70 for several years during which time the S&P moved up but never quite made it to the upper BB. Then in 2007 the RSI moved above 70 but then quickly reversed back down below the upper band. Interestingly again the RSI dropping below the upper band seemed to trigger the bursting of the credit bubble as we saw S&P again move into free fall. Then here too we saw the market stabilize as the RSI moved through the bottom band.

And again this brought us into the latest Fed bubble. Now during this latest cycle the RSI moved up but bounced off the upper band a few times without actually breaking through 70. At the same time the S&P moved higher but with quite heavy volatility. Eventually we saw the RSI move up and break through the upper limit. It was about the same time that the S&P traded higher to the upper BB where it tracked for some time. However, at the end of November 2014 the S&P started to dislocate and moving down below the upper BB. And then ominously January of this year we saw the RSI also move below the upper RSI band.

Remember this technical signaled the popping of the past two bubble cycles. Now February saw the RSI move back above the upper band but March moved back down below. I would watch this very carefully now. I would venture to say if April remains below the upper RSI band we could very well have moved into the latest and perhaps greatest period of wealth destruction. It is time to protect those assets.

FT : Deutsche Bank to spin off Postbank

Deutsche Bank is preparing to divest its Postbank retail operation in the latest strategy overhaul by a big global bank in response to sluggish markets and a welter of tough new regulations since the financial crisis.

After months of reviewing its business, Deutsche’s management board has whittled down its strategic options for boosting returns to two, both of which involve parting ways with Postbank, according to people familar with the matter.

The divestment of Postbank, which has 1,100 branches and was bought for €6bn in stages from 2008, would be biggest strategic step yet for Deutsche under co-chief executives Anshu Jain and Jürgen Fitschen.

Under the first scenario being considered by the management board, Deutsche would sell shares in Postbank, 6 per cent of which remains listed, within the next 18 months and refocus its remaining own-brand retail business on more affluent clients.

At the same time, it would cut assets at its investment bank by €160bn – or roughly a fifth. The most likely areas of Deutsche’s dominant investment bank to be reduced are the rates trading business and prime brokerage operation, which are both hit particularly hard by new Basel III capital rules.

Under the second more radical scenario being considered, Deutsche would split itself in to two separate legal entities. One would contain its investment banking, asset and wealth management and global transaction banking divisions. The second would contain all its retail businesses, which would be fully merged and then listed at some point over the next two and a half years.

Retail banking in Germany is less profitable than in many other European countries because of fierce competition from the country’s large number of local savings banks and Germans’ traditional aversion to higher margin products, such as credit cards.

Deutsche’s eight-man management board met last Wednesday, but has yet to decide formally in favour of either of the proposals, and various members have changed their positions over the course of the strategic review.

The bank’s supervisory board is due to discuss the plans on Friday, but it is not yet clear whether the management board will be in a position to recommend one of the two options by then.

Unanswered questions remain over both. Spinning off the entire retail business would potentially provide Deutsche with a large enough slug of capital to avoid making deep cuts in its investment banking arm.

But it remains unclear whether Deutsche would still be able to meet tough regulatory requirements on funding in times of stress once it had been shorn of its retail deposit base.

Spinning off just Postbank is a lower risk option. But under this scenario, which would also include de-emphasising the rest of Deutsche’s balance-sheet-intensive mortgage business, Deutsche would have to make deep cuts to its remaining domestic retail network of about 750 branches in order to keep its cost base in line with its lower retail revenues.

Deutsche said: “Strategy 2015+, our three-year plan launched in 2012 comes to its natural conclusion this year. We have been transparent that the bank is reviewing and updating its strategy, and that we will communicate further in the second quarter after decisions are made.”

A number of large investors have previously told the FT that they are keen for Deutsche to retain a strong investment bank. But many of them support the idea of it disposing of Postbank because it generates relatively low returns from its €144bn of mostly mortgage assets that weigh heavily on the group’s capital under the recent leverage ratio rules.

(Recoe.net) FCC to Open Valuable Airwaves for Tech, Telecom Companies

FCC to Open Valuable Airwaves for Tech, Telecom Companies

U.S. regulators on Friday voted to open a swath of government-controlled airwaves for commercial use by tech and telecom companies such as Verizon and Google as they seek to meet growing data demands from new wireless devices.

The Federal Communications Commission voted unanimously to chalk out a process to allow companies free access to the frequencies in the 3.5 gigahertz band.

Those airwaves’ ability to carry heavy data across short distances makes them particularly attractive to companies.

The plan to open up the frequencies can, for instance, help boost the capacity of companies’ existing wireless networks, especially in densely populated locations or indoors. It could even help wirelessly connect specific devices like thermostats or washing machines to facilitate the Internet of Things.

Friday’s vote will kick-start the process of setting up a system for companies to begin using frequencies now dedicated to military radars and other government operations, by sharing them in places where commercial users would not interfere with incumbent users.

The opening up of 3.5 GHz airwaves “is setting a new paradigm for how spectrum sharing should work,” FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler said in remarks in Washington.

The plan would allow wireless providers and others to use the airwaves without charge, similarly to Wi-Fi, or to buy licenses for short-term exclusive use in some areas if the airwaves get crowded.

The FCC has been developing the system, known as the Citizens Broadband Radio Service, since 2012 and has drawn interest from various wireless Internet service and device companies, including Verizon, Google, Qualcomm and Ericsson.

Trade groups such as the Telecommunications Industry Association praised the move.

“The spectrum crunch remains very real, and the FCC’s action represents significant progress toward opening more spectrum for broadband,” the TIA’s chief executive, Scott Belcher, said in a statement.

On Friday, the FCC also said it had voted to propose a notice seeking public comment on competitive bidding practices and rules in auctions of airwaves.

U.S. regulators have been working on plans to reform government airwaves auction rules to prevent big companies from tapping a discount program intended for small businesses.

The FCC is gearing up to hold an auction early next year of another set of airwaves belonging to broadcasters and repackaging them to sell them to the wireless industry.

NY Post : Older investors ‘don’t trust’ the market

The ghosts of 2008-09 hang over older investors, many of whom saw large stakes of their wealth wiped out in very little time.

With that distaste still lingering, many Americans continue to shunning stocks despite the bull-market recovery and the growing wealth such investing is bringing to millions of American households.

A little over half of those recently surveyed said they don’t invest in the market, according to a new Bankrate report, which polled 1,001 people around the nation.

“Of those who responded that they do not in invest in the market, 53 percent say the reason is due to lack of money,” according to the survey.

Others factors keeping people from investing include not knowing enough (21 percent), a lack of trust in brokers and advisers ( 9 percent) and viewing stock market as too risky (7 percent), along with the fear of high fees (2 percent).

“The numbers are surprising,” says Claes Bell, a banking analyst with Bankrate. “The survey shows there’s a great need for education.”

Older Americans were the most likely to be wary of stocks. Those ages 50 to 64 said “they don’t invest because they don’t trust stock brokers or advisers,” the survey said.

Seniors over 65 said they don’t invest “because stocks are too risky.”

Some of the elderly who lived through multiple crashes may still be spooked by stocks, Bell explains. But even elderly investors, who will probably live longer than their parents, will likely need some growth component such as stocks in their retirement funds, he says.

Lewis Altfest, a Manhattan adviser, says ignoring stocks is a mistake.

“As Warren Buffett would say, stocks are most logical choice over the long term.”

Altfest also says investing is critical over the long term in retaining buying power. That, he adds, means money grows at a faster pace than inflation and taxes.

For that, Atlfest recommends “stocks and real estate.”

FT : Brussels plans to shake up telecoms market

Brussels will call for a “level playing field” between telecoms groups and online rivals such as WhatsApp and Skype next month, putting Europe’s regulators on a collision course with US companies once again.

The European Commission is set to launch reforms of everything from telecoms to media to online shopping as part of plans for a “digital single market” within the EU on May 6.

Companies that provide over-the-top content — which let people have free voice calls and messages over the internet — are “not subject to the same rules” as traditional telecoms company, argues the commission in a draft document seen by the FT.

The move will be welcomed by large European telecoms groups which have long claimed these services benefit from less stringent regulation. But it will also add fuel to accusations that the EU favours European operators over their US peers.

Technology regulation in Brussels came under the spotlight last week after the commission launched an antitrust case against Google, following nearly five years of back-and-forth negotiations between the company, its rivals and the regulator. This year, Barack Obama accused European regulators of protectionism — charges that the commission denied.

Alongside “ambitious” telecoms reforms, the commission has also promised a “comprehensive investigation” into platforms such as Amazon and Google, to look at how they display search results and use customer data. In the document, the commission writes that the “growing market power of some online platforms” is “potentially raising concerns”.

Other measures discussed include simplifying the removal of illegal content from the internet and wide-ranging copyright reforms.

Andrus Ansip, the commissioner overseeing the plan, last month outlined ways to eliminate tactics such as geoblocking, which stops customers in one country using websites or watching media or buying goods online in another.

The commission’s plan to reform telecoms regulation comes as its long-running attempt to get rid of roaming charges and introduce some form of “net neutrality” — whereby all internet traffic must be treated equally — enters its final stages.

In the document, the commission acknowledges the shortcomings of the last attempt to create a digital single market. It says that attempt became too focused on net neutrality and roaming in spite of the wider ambitions to drive investment and innovation by Neelie Kroes, the former digital commissioner.

The commission wants to help develop a pan-European telecoms industry through reforms of regulations and investment incentives for high speed broadband networks.

Steven Tas, chairman of Etno, which represents Europe’s leading telecom operators, said: “Boardrooms feel an urgent need for in-depth reforms that stimulate investments in high speed broadband networks. Investment is crucial for the competitiveness of Europe in the global economy.”

The EU’s executive arm plans to better co-ordinate the regional auctions of mobile spectrum, which is crucial to supporting the next generation of mobile internet services. The commission is clear that the proceeds from the sale of the spectrum to mobile groups should remain with the member states.

(BFW) Sika Board Offers to Buy Burkard Family Shares for CHF2.25b: SZ

Sika Board Offers to Buy Burkard Family Shares for CHF2.25b: SZ
2015-04-19 11:43:07.961 GMT

By Roxana Zega and Jan-Henrik Förster
(Bloomberg) -- Sika offers to buy all shares held by
Burkard family, helping chemicals co. to avoid takeover by
Saint-Gobain, SonntagsZeitung reports without saying where it
got the information.
* Co. would then introduce single registered share class and
sell shares on the stock exchange or sell in blocks to
investors
* NOTE: Burkard family holds majority of voting rights
* NOTE: Representatives from Sika, Burkard family’s Schenker-
Winkler vehicle couldn’t immediately be reached for comment
when contacted Sunday
* NOTE: April 14, Sika Shackles Founding Family to Hinder
Saint-Gobain Offer here

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO>
First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporters on this story:
Roxana Zega in Zurich at +41-44-224-4120 or
rzega@bloomberg.net;
Jan-Henrik Förster in Zurich at +41-44-224-4116 or
jforster20@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
Cecile Vannucci at +44-20-3525-7032 or
cvannucci1@bloomberg.net
Rachel Graham, Pawel Kozlowski

(BFW) China Cuts Banks’ Reserve Ratio by 1 Percentage Point

BN 04/19 09:11 China Cuts Reserve Ratio by 1 Percentage Point
BFW 04/19 09:09 *CHINA NEW RESERVE RATIO EFFECTIVE AS OF APRIL 20
BFW 04/19 09:09 *CHINA CUTS RESERVE RATIO BY 1 PERCENTAGE POINT
BFW 04/19 09:07 *CHINA CUTS BANKS' RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO

China Cuts Banks’ Reserve Ratio by 1 Percentage Point
2015-04-19 09:17:18.55 GMT

By Bloomberg News
(Bloomberg) -- Reserve ratio cut will be effective April
20, PBOC says.

Link to Company News:{PBCZ CH <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information:
First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>}
First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact Bloomberg News staff for this story:
Li Liu in Beijing at +86-10-6649-7545 or
lliu255@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story:
Simon Lee at +852-2977-6935 or
slee936@bloomberg.net

WSJ : ECB’s Draghi Rejects Talk of Greek Exit From Euro

ECB’s Draghi Rejects Talk of Greek Exit From Euro

At IMF meetings in Washington, bank chief reiterates 2012 comment it “cannot be reversed.”

WASHINGTON—European Central Bank President Mario Draghi on Saturday rejected speculation that Greece may be forced to abandon the euro, reiterating that Europe’s single currency is irrevocable.

At a news conference during meetings here of the world’s top finance officials Mr. Draghi said he stood by a comment he made in August 2012 that the euro “cannot be reversed.”

The risk of a Greek exit appears to be rising, as a stalemate between Greece and its creditors over emergency financing drags on, with some big bills falling due for cash-strapped Athens in coming weeks.

Despite the urgent circumstances, the International Monetary Fund’s Managing Director Christine Lagarde on Saturday said she had learned little new in talks with Greek Finance Minister Yanis Varoufakis this week and instead urged him promptly to submit a detailed proposal for a fresh bailout.

“What we very much hope…is not only speeding, but deepening the work,” she said. “It’s not a question of racing to the end, it’s a question of doing all the work that needs to be done.”

After a series of meetings in recent days between Mr. Varoufakis, the IMF and his counterparts from the U.S. and Europe, senior officials sounded increasingly frustrated that Athens hasn’t put forward a detailed plan to overhaul its government finances and restore Greek economic growth in a way that would encourage bailout lenders to unlock financing the debt-ridden country needs to avoid default.

The recently installed left-wing government continues to resist overhauls in a number of areas, including further changes to Greece’s pension system and labor market to which its predecessors had agreed in 2012.

“The job of the finance minister…is to go deep in the analysis, pull out the numbers, assessing the efforts undertaken, making a few hypotheticals about what it will deliver in terms of growth, in terms of fiscal revenues, or spending, and then move on,” Ms. Lagarde said.

Meanwhile, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble damped hopes for a breakthrough in the Greek situation at a closely watched meeting of eurozone finance chiefs in Riga, Latvia, next week. “It doesn’t look like there will be a solution in Riga,” the German minister said. “It is clear of course that things have got worse and it’s difficult for Greece.”

Mr. Schäuble said the onus remains on Greece to commit to overhauls in return for sustained aid, based on the Feb. 20 agreement to extend Greece’s bailout by four months. “The debate isn’t getting better by repetition,” he said. “The time lapse means Greece can’t access the outstanding funds.”

A senior IMF official on Friday said negotiations over fresh emergency financing for Greece are likely to take several more weeks, even though the cash-needy government in Athens requires a deal to help it meet a big increase in debt payments due in June.

The ECB’s Mr. Draghi said in 2012“there is no going back to the lira or the drachma or to any other currency. It is pointless to bet against the euro. It is pointless to go short on the euro.”

On Saturday, he said he would “say exactly the same words today.”

A Greek default on its debts would in turn threaten the country’s banks and make it harder for the ECB to approve emergency lending via the Greek central bank.

Mr. Draghi declined to say how the ECB would react to any Greek default, saying: “I don’t want even to contemplate” such a scenario. “We all want Greece to succeed,” Mr. Draghi said, adding, “the answer is in the hands of the Greek government.”

But not all finance officials sounded so confident. Italian Finance Minister Pier Carlo Padoan said earlier in the week that Greece’s cash crisis could push the country into an unintentional exit from the eurozone.

Poul Thomsen, head of the IMF’s European Department and chief architect of Greece’s bailout programs, said the risk of a Greek exit shouldn’t be underestimated.

And U.S. Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew on Friday said it was wrong to think that European and global markets are insulated from a wider Greek crisis. “I do not think that anyone can predict how markets will respond to dramatic changes in circumstances,” he said.

Aside from the Greek situation, Mr. Draghi said the eurozone economy is on more solid footing than it has been in many years, as the region feels the twin effects of lower oil prices and the ECB’s stimulus that includes record-low interest rates and a recently launched bond-purchase program. “The basis for this recovery is broad and stronger than in the past,” Mr. Draghi said.

The ECB and IMF have both raised their forecasts for economic growth in the eurozone, which is the world’s second-largest economy after the U.S.

Still, despite more favorable trends from Europe, the global economy isn’t yet in a phase of robust expansion, he signaled. “I think it’s premature to talk about vibrant growth,” Mr. Draghi said.

–Harriet Torry contributed to this article

Write to Brian Blackstone at brian.blackstone@wsj.com

WSJ : Mooreâ€™s Law Will Bring Emotional Machines â€” SoftBank CEO

Moore’s Law Will Bring Emotional Machines — SoftBank CEO

Humans will face their biggest test when computers surpass human intellectual capabilities, according to Masayoshi Son, the billionaire founder and CEO of SoftBank Corp., the Japanese telecommunications and Internet giant. But virtual emotions may keep them under control, he said.

Mr. Son, known for his interest in robots as well as his aggressive corporate acquisitions, bases his predictions partly on Intel co-founder Gordon Moore’s forecast 50 years ago on Sunday that the number of transistors on a chip would double approximately every two years.

The Japanese telecom heavyweight reiterated his view that computers would surpass human intellectual capabilities in a speech earlier this month. But he gave a fuller portrait of the future in a 2010 speech in which he said transistors on a chip would exceed the number of human brain cells by 2018.

At that time he suggested that computers should acquire feelings provided they were given “hearts” that would enable them to love and show kindness.

“That, I believe, is the correct evolution of the computer brain,” he said, suggesting that the virtual consciences would prevent supercomputers from running out of control.

Among other developments he forecast for the 24th century, Mr. Son said DNA treatments and artificial organs would have increased average human life expectancy to 200 years. He also said automated translation would have removed language barriers and–in what could be a bad sign for his own business–people would communicate by telepathy.

While some of Mr. Son’s predictions sound far-fetched, he said SoftBank was committed to making them happen.

“We aren’t sci-fi movie directors or novelists. We want to make this all reality,” he said.

Mr. Son, 57, still appears committed to this vision. He plans to sell thousands of humanoid robots to consumers starting this summer. The robots, named Pepper, have been billed as the first that can sense human feelings.