WSJ : U.S. Moves to Withdraw Some Middle East Personnel as Iran Tensions Rise

U.S. Moves to Withdraw Some Middle East Personnel as Iran Tensions Rise
Oil prices rise while prospects for a nuclear deal with Tehran fade

Key Points
  • U.S. reducing Middle East presence to essential personnel amid rising tensions.
  • Nonessential staff will depart Baghdad embassy; Bahrain, Kuwait departures authorized.
  • Oil prices rise 4.9% due to conflict worries and lower crude inventories.

The U.S. is moving to draw down its presence in parts of the Middle East to essential personnel, the State Department and Pentagon said Wednesday, as tensions in the region rise, sending oil prices higher.

The State Department said that it ordered the departure of all nonessential personnel from the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad and authorized the departure of nonessential personnel and family members from Bahrain and Kuwait.

At the same time, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth authorized the voluntary departure of military dependents from across the Middle East, a defense official said. U.S. troops based in the region aren’t affected, officials said.

The heightened tensions come ahead of the latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. President Trump told the “Pod Force One” podcast on Monday that he is “less confident” of reaching a deal and shutting down Iran’s nuclear program, raising concerns that diplomatic efforts could fail.

“I don’t know. I did think so, and I’m getting more and more—less confident about it,” Trump said Monday.

The sixth round of talks is scheduled to take place this weekend in Oman. A U.S. official said Wednesday that Special Envoy Steve Witkoff was still planning to travel there to meet with his Iranian counterpart on Sunday.

Army Gen. Erik Kurilla, commander of U.S. Central Command, which is responsible for U.S. military operations in the Middle East, was supposed to testify on Capitol Hill Thursday but canceled his appearance to return to Centcom headquarters in Tampa, Fla., a U.S. official said.

Iranian Defense Minister Amir Aziz Nasirzadeh said earlier on Wednesday that “some say that if negotiations fail, the situation may escalate into conflict.”

“If a conflict is imposed on us…all U.S. bases are within our reach and we will boldly target them in host countries,” Nasirzadeh warned.

Late Wednesday, Trump was asked about the personnel moves. “Well, they are being moved out because it could be a dangerous place, and we’ll see what happens,” he told reporters. Asked what could reduce tensions in the region, he replied, “They can’t have a nuclear weapon,” in an apparent reference to Iran.

The area of Baghdad where the U.S. Embassy is located has been targeted by rockets and mortars in past confrontations between Washington and Tehran. One of the largest State Department facilities in the world, the embassy has operated at less than full staffing levels for years, partly because of security concerns.

Experts and former officials say that Israel could try to defuse what it sees as the threat to its security of a nuclear-armed Iran if the deal talks are stymied. Israel’s Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, has in particular expressed concerns about the talks, warning that a bad nuclear deal is worse than no deal at all.

Trump said recently that he warned Netanyahu against taking action—such as a military strike—that could threaten the talks with Iran.

Benchmark U.S. oil prices rose 4.9% Wednesday, fueled in part by rising worries of conflict in the region, as well as a government report that showed domestic crude inventories were lower than expected.

Oil prices have risen six of the past eight trading sessions and are now up 19% from the low in May. Prices tumbled following Trump’s tariff barrage in April, which fed expectations of slower economic growth and lower fuel demand.

The prospect of lighter sanctions on Iran, which would allow the country to sell more of its oil abroad, had also weighed on oil prices. Now, with talks sputtering, traders are reworking their estimates for global supply and betting on rising oil prices.

FT : Walthamstow vs Crystal Palace: buyers on opposing sides of London’s north-s

Walthamstow vs Crystal Palace: buyers on opposing sides of London’s north-south divide
Eighteen miles and the river Thames separate the two neighbourhoods but both vie for a similar breed of buyer in the capital, and they are driving prices up

On a clear day in Crystal Palace, south London, it’s just possible to see beyond the Shard and the skyscrapers of the City to the forests surrounding another former village, Walthamstow, in the capital’s north-east. These two communities, 18 miles apart, are currently among London’s most on-the-up neighbourhoods, with house prices growing more than 45 per cent in the past decade and more than 100 per cent since 2008, according to research by Hamptons. Data from Savills suggests that Walthamstow has seen the biggest jumps in the UK, with prices now more than seven times higher than they were in 2000.

Crystal Palace, which sits on the borders of five south London boroughs and is named after Joseph Paxton’s Great Exhibition building relocated there in 1854 (now long gone after it burnt down in 1936), has a faded historic grandeur. It still bears the landscaped park around the former palace, which includes a 19th-century maze, Italianate garden and trail of life-sized dinosaurs, and is currently undergoing a multimillion regeneration programme. 

Walthamstow has more ancient bones — dotted among the Victorian streets are remnants of the village recorded in the Domesday Book as Wilcumestowe (“place of welcome”). St Mary’s church dates from the 12th century and opposite it, the 15th-century, timber-framed Ancient House is the oldest residential building in London. In the borough of Waltham Forest, the area is a scrubbed-up former dormitory for 19th-century railway workers that became a haven for artists and creatives. Now, thanks in part to receiving £17.2mn “levelling-up” funding in 2023 to regenerate the high street, it’s being mainlined by those on higher incomes. According to Neil Collins, founder of local estate agency Estates East, City workers like the way they can be at their desks in 20 minutes, and there are enough amenities and attractions to stay local on the weekends.

On paper, the lifestyle the two enclaves offer is similar: parks, independent cafés and boutiques, period houses that are more affordable than in other gentrified areas and — crucially — a commute to the City that’s less than 30 minutes. Gail’s Bakery — the litmus test of gentrification in the UK — has found its way to both: Walthamstow’s branch of the upmarket coffee and bakery chain opened last October, while Crystal Palace’s opens later this year.

In both areas residents petitioned hard against its arrival. Dave Telford, who works in tech and has lived in Crystal Palace since 2014, says locals are so resistant to high-street brands that the coffee chain Costa never reopened after the pandemic; yet Walthamstow’s Gail’s was rammed with people on laptops when I visited. Local estate agents describe similar buyers in both places: for apartments, it’s single City workers; for houses, couples in their thirties with a child or two and jobs in central London.

But though buyers in both areas might dress similarly — slip dresses and Birkenstocks for her and Drake’s washable suits and New Balance trainers for him — and work in tech, finance or podcasting, London’s north-south divide ensures that the two areas are perceived differently by potential buyers. Telford and his wife could have chosen any area in London but associated south London with space. They were drawn to Crystal Palace’s large houses and wide streets and the views over the City and out into the countryside.

“You can walk with your elbows out in south London. We looked as far north as Kilburn and even considered Walthamstow but the type of private space you get here is very different,” he says. They moved with their son, now 10, from a studio in Balham, south-west London, to a semi-detached house with a large garden that isn’t overlooked by neighbours. “There are a lot of benefits to living here,” he says. 

Meanwhile, lawyer Arielle Bardzell was in search of a quiet and friendly village-like community when she bought a three-bedroom cottage in Walthamstow. She had friends living in Clapham, south London, but regarded north as calmer. Originally from New York, she likens Walthamstow Village to small-town America; she knows everyone on her street. “Walthamstow is quieter than south of the river,” she says. “I feel safe walking home on my own. It might have seemed weird for someone single in their thirties to move to an area populated by young families but it’s welcoming here — I now have a large group of friends.”

A premium is paid for a cottage in Walthamstow, though; there’s a significant price discrepancy between the two areas. The average price for a property in Walthamstow is £582,332, compared with £477,135 in Crystal Palace, according to property website Rightmove, even though the buildings tend to be taller and wider with longer gardens in the latter. According to Alicia Getley of estate agency Pedder, Crystal Palace prices for spacious one-bedroom apartments on a desirable street such as Thicket Road or Auckland Road start at £300,000, while three-bedroom houses cost from £700,000. On Fox Hill and Belvedere Road, which some describe as “the Mayfair of Crystal Palace”, a five-bedroom house will cost around £2mn. However, there are outliers: a five-bedroom house on Tudor Street, fully renovated with a landscaped 81ft garden, appeared on the market this spring for £5mn. The property starred in the Netflix series Black Doves — ironically, as an MP’s house in north London.

If TV viewers had seen the steepness of the surrounding streets, they’d have smelled a rat immediately. Crystal Palace is one of the most elevated areas in London; even some ground-floor apartments have panoramic views of the City. In the Victorian era, wealthy Londoners moved here because it was high and thus out of the smog. “Depending on which aspect you’re looking at, you can look out to the countryside or if you want to feel more connected to the city you can turn around and look down Gipsy Hill the the iconic skyline,” Telford says. 

The area has a village feel, which is another draw. Local life revolves around — and out from — the Triangle, says Telford. “You live on the spokes of the wheel” — three connected high streets, which include the independent bookshop Crow on the Hill, chocolatiers Blowing Dandelions and Chatsworth Bakehouse, where sandwiches sell out at lunchtime. There’s an Everyman Cinema and several art galleries. A sustainable dog shop is about to open; dogs are another reason buyers are drawn to Crystal Palace, Telford says. Dulwich Park, Sydenham Hill Wood and South Norwood Lake are all on the doorstep, as well as Beckenham Place Park.

Up in Walthamstow Village, on the pedestrianised section of Orford Road, “Everything you need is in walking distance — it’s family friendly but cool,” Bardzell says. Eat 17 is a deli-style supermarket with an artisan coffee shop and restaurant, The Good Egg. There are independent clothing and homewares shops including Pavement and the W Store, and Word, for babies. There’s also a grocer, wine shop and butcher. 

Janna Walker, who owns Pavement, lived with her husband and son in Brixton before buying a house here. “It felt exciting: there’s a real push for independent shops that are locally owned and operated.” Orford Road is the most popular address for young families, according to Collins, as well as the streets nearby and running off it, such as Church Lane and Beulah Road, where some of the Victorian cottages have been extended into five-bedroom homes.

There are also a number of Georgian terraces and villas, including, notably, William Morris’s Grade II*-listed former home, in a corner of Lloyd Park, a museum devoted to the Arts and Crafts movement. Unlike Crystal Palace, however, grand family houses with large gardens are hard to come by — there’s currently nothing of that description on the market — the record sold price for the area is £2.2mn, according to Collins. More widely available but equally coveted are the apartments and maisonettes on the Warner Estate, built between 1880 and 1914 to resemble two-storey terrace houses with front and back gardens, which sell for £500,000-£600,000, and cottages around up-and-coming Wood Street and Blackhorse Road. 

Walker, who lives between the Village and Wood Street, often spends Saturday afternoons at Ravenswood, a collection of breweries and bars in a former industrial estate, or hangs out at family-friendly The Castle pub, where children draw on the pavement in chalk. On the cultural front, there’s the Forest Cinema and the new 1,000-seat Soho Theatre, and for a wilderness escape there’s the Wetlands — Europe’s largest urban wetlands — and Epping Forest. “I do more activities now than I did as a teenager,” she says. “I start the day jogging through the wetlands and at weekends I do pottery, yoga, ballet and horseriding, without leaving the area.”

Buyers in Walthamstow tend to be living north of the river already, according to Collins; many grew up in areas such as Highgate and Hampstead, which they are now priced out of. The same but for south of the river is true in Crystal Palace; many of Getley’s applicants have been renting in Clapham, Battersea or Dulwich before looking to buy in Crystal Palace. Those upsizing to a large family house often come across from East Dulwich or Herne Hill and will be looking to tap into Sydenham and Dulwich’s renowned private schools: Sydenham High, Alleyn’s, Dulwich College and JAGS are all accessible from Crystal Palace. Telford’s son is at an outstanding-rated primary school and will next year move to one of the area’s secondary schools; he would be happy with any of them, he says. 

In Walthamstow, there’s a new private nursery school, N Family Club, and Forest School, a private day school from reception to 18, is nearby. There are well-rated primary schools in the area, such as St Mary’s C of E, Henry Maynard and Greenleaf, and — particularly for girls — secondary schools, too. Walthamstow School for Girls and Eden Girls’ School, Waltham Forest are both rated outstanding by Ofsted. 


The shared drawback is when friends live on the other side of the river. Bardzell and Telford do find themselves traipsing across London to see some friends; neither has any regrets, though, when they arrive back at their front door. “Half my friends are south-west and half north-east and we fight over who hosts book club,” says Bardzell. “But when I get back to Walthamstow, it feels like home.”  

FT : Oil prices surge on fears of escalation between US and Iran

Oil prices surge on fears of escalation between US and Iran
Washington orders removal of non-essential personnel from parts of Middle East

Oil prices rose sharply on Wednesday after the Pentagon authorised dependants of service members in parts of the Middle East to leave the region amid fears of an escalation between the US and Iran.

Brent crude, the international oil marker, jumped 5 per cent from its settlement level on Tuesday to $70 a barrel in afternoon trading in New York. US benchmark West Texas Intermediate rallied by a similar amount to its highest level since April.

Prices moderated on Thursday morning in Asia to $69.42 a barrel for Brent and $67.93 for West Texas Intermediate.

The rise in crude prices came hours after Donald Trump said he was now “less confident” of a nuclear deal with Iran, despite talks between the two countries this year.

On Wednesday night the US president confirmed the withdrawal of non-essential personnel from the Middle East. “They’re being moved out because it’s a dangerous place and we’ll see what happens,” he told reporters.

“They can’t have a nuclear weapon, very simple,” the president added, referring to Iran.

The US has warned it would consider military options to prevent Tehran from securing a nuclear weapon if diplomacy fails. Israel has also pushed for strikes against Iran, believing the Islamic republic is at its most vulnerable in decades and it has an opportunity to attack.

Iran’s defence minister said on Wednesday his country would target American military assets in the region in response to any attack “without hesitation”, in comments that rattled energy markets.

“Crude has obviously reacted to the news coming out of the Middle East,” said one London-based oil broker.

A 60-day deadline Trump set for Iran to agree a new nuclear deal expires on Thursday. Tehran said this week there would be a sixth round of talks on Sunday, although that has not been confirmed by the US or Oman, which is facilitating the talks.

The voluntary departure of American military dependants from parts of the Middle East was authorised by defence secretary Pete Hegseth, according to a US defence official.


“The safety and security of our service members and their families remains our highest priority and US Central Command (Centcom) is monitoring the developing tension in the Middle East,” the official said. Centcom is responsible for military operations throughout the region.

A state department official said the US had chosen to “reduce the footprint of our Mission in Iraq”, noting that it was “constantly assessing the appropriate personnel posture at all our embassies”.

Britain’s Royal Navy Maritime Trade Operations office had said earlier on Wednesday that it “has been made aware of increased tensions within the region which could lead to an escalation of military activity having a direct impact on mariners”.

It was not clear what caused the US to authorise military dependants to voluntarily leave the region. A UK government official said it was not following the American lead for its own forces in the region, but was keeping its position under review.

Brent’s rally on Wednesday was an “overreaction that shows the market is a bit short and full of angst”, said Jorge Montepeque, managing director of Onyx Capital, an oil derivatives liquidity provider. A “short” position is a bet that oil will fall.

The Trump administration is in the middle of indirect talks with Iran in a bid to secure an agreement to curb Tehran’s expansive nuclear programme and resolve a long simmering stand-off with the Islamic republic.

Iran has reacted negatively to a US proposal for an interim agreement, as Trump pushes it to give up its domestic enrichment programme.

Tehran, which has said it would submit a counterproposal, insists that is a red line, saying it had the right to enrich uranium as a signatory to the non-proliferation treaty.

Trump told The New York Post on Wednesday that he was “less confident now of a deal being made”, although he reiterated that he would prefer a deal to military action.

Iran’s defence minister Aziz Nasirzadeh told reporters on Wednesday that “if a conflict is imposed on us . . . all US bases are within our reach and we will without hesitation target them in host countries”.

However, western diplomats say Tehran is keen to avoid military conflict and wants the negotiations to succeed so that it can secure sanctions relief to boost the beleaguered economy.

Helima Croft, a former CIA analyst who is now at RBC Capital Markets, said the departure of non-essential US personnel from the region was raising geopolitical tensions.

“While not a full evacuation order these decisions are not usually taken lightly and typically involve a significant intelligence review,” Croft said. “This raises the spectre of a heightened threat environment in the region.”

FT : Why Italy will struggle to meet Nato’s higher defence spending target

Why Italy will struggle to meet Nato’s higher defence spending target

Numbers game
Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte visits Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni today, as Rome faces growing pressure to commit to higher military spending ahead of this month’s Nato summit, writes Amy Kazmin.

Context: Italy is one of Nato’s biggest defence spending laggards, allocating less than 1.5 per cent of GDP to defence in 2024, well below Nato’s existing 2 per cent target. US President Donald Trump has demanded allies pledge to spend 5 per cent at the summit in The Hague, or risk losing American protection.

Rome has announced it will meet the 2 per cent target this year, which analysts say might include the reclassification of some security expenditure as defence-related. Rutte has proposed a split target of 3.5 per cent spending on core defence capabilities, plus another 1.5 per cent on related areas such as cyber security and infrastructure.

Alessandro Marrone, a defence analyst at Rome’s Institute for International Affairs, said even that will be a tall ask for Meloni, who is likely to press for a long phase-in period for her highly indebted country.

“Moving to 3.5 per cent on core defence — personnel, equipment and technology, operational costs — will be a big challenge for Italy,” he said. “Italy will push not to change the target. It’s in the making and it’s hard to change it . . . But it will seek to set a timeline.”

Marrone said Rome would reach the target to spend 1.5 per cent of GDP on security and infrastructure more easily.

Defence minister Guido Crosetto has said repeatedly that Italy must do more on defence in light of Russia’s challenge, while Meloni is eager to maintain fiscal discipline and avoid unsettling bond markets.

Many Italians oppose higher defence spending, a view also espoused by deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini of the far-right League. All that means Meloni faces a tough balancing act to satisfy domestic demands while satisfying Nato allies and avoiding alienating Trump, with whom she has forged a warm rapport.

“Italy has long lived with the idea that it didn’t really need to bother about defence,” said Francesco Galietti, CEO of Policy Sonar, a political consultancy. “This is when Italy finds out what the new normal looks like.”

FT : BYD brings EV price wars to small cars in Europe

BYD brings EV price wars to small cars in Europe
EU tariffs may limit discounting but Chinese carmakers will appeal to consumers with advanced technology

BYD has launched its cheapest and smallest electric vehicle in the UK, as it takes Chinese carmakers’ battle to win on price in Europe into the compact car segment.

The Dolphin Surf, with a starting price of £18,650, is the British equivalent of BYD’s popular Seagull hatchback. That model is offered at less than a third of the UK price — below £6,000 — in China, following a recent round of discounting amid a price war in the world’s largest car market.

“Compact cars are the next frontier for electrification in Europe,” BYD’s executive vice-president Stella Li said at a recent launch event in Rome, noting the electric transition has been slower for small cars than for bigger sport utility vehicles.

BYD, the leading EV maker, announced an assault on the Japanese small-car market last month, with plans to release a low-cost battery-powered kei car next year. The boxy minicar would be cheaper than the compact Dolphin that sells for ¥2.9mn ($20,700) in Japan.

Even before Dolphin Surf’s European debut a few weeks earlier at a price below €23,000, rival compact EV offerings from the Renault 5, Citroën ë-C3 to the Dacia Spring had already hit the markets with similar or lower prices.

Chinese brands have adopted a pricing strategy in Europe that is more restrained than in their home market, especially with Brussels imposing higher tariffs on imports of Chinese-made EVs since last year.

Still, BYD’s expansion into all car segments in Europe is set to accelerate its overseas growth. The market share of BYD and other Chinese brands in the UK and on the continent has grown from 2.9 per cent in the first quarter of 2024 to 4.8 per cent in the first four months of 2025, according to Schmidt Automotive Research. 

The UK, which has not imposed higher tariffs on Chinese EVs, now accounts for nearly a third of all Chinese-brand models entering western Europe. 

According to UK online marketplace Auto Trader, stocks of Chinese EVs for sale between January and April increased tenfold year-on-year, with more than 3,300 cars for sale. That represented nearly 3 per cent of new car stock for sale on the marketplace compared with 0.2 per cent a year earlier.

Analysts say there is more room for prices to come down for smaller electric cars as western carmakers use cheaper lithium iron phosphate batteries to compete against Chinese rivals, who are increasing local production in Europe to avoid the tariffs.

Renault and Volkswagen are using Chinese engineering expertise as well as components made in China to speed up vehicle development and lower the costs of compact EVs due to be launched next year.

“Once they start coming to the market, we will see price deflation,” said automotive analyst Matthias Schmidt. 

Cao Li, senior vice-president of Stellantis-backed Chinese carmaker Leapmotor, told journalists on Wednesday that the convergence of car prices for EVs and petrol cars was a broad trend in the European market. 

Some Chinese car executives fear the bruising price war in their home market could spill over into Europe. However, rising trade tensions between China and the EU are seen as changing the pricing dynamics in Europe. 

Beijing and its carmakers have offered to introduce a system of voluntary price controls to replace the EU tariffs, but it remains unclear whether Brussels would accept this minimum pricing approach.

People close to discussions said Beijing offered a €35,000 minimum regardless of the model in earlier negotiations. At that level, cheaper cars such as those offered by BYD and Leapmotor would be excluded from the market.

But even if the price cuts are more limited in Europe, analysts say consumers will probably be drawn to Chinese offerings due to the high quality of their technology and software. 

BYD’s Li recently told Belgian media, for example, that the Chinese group plans to bring its superfast charging technology to Europe within the next 12 months. 

While the price war in China is considered destructive for the domestic car industry, greater competition in the UK and Europe may help boost vehicle demand, which is still below pre-pandemic levels. 

“Increasing levels of competition and some new standout performers now seen in our market will likely create wider pricing pressures that will be good for car buyers in the short term and which will hopefully also fuel further innovation and market growth in the midterm,” said Ian Plummer, commercial director at Auto Trader.

>>> US After Hours Summary: ORCL +6.7% higher on earnings; DAN +3.6% to sell off

After Hours Summary: ORCL +6.7% higher on earnings; DAN +3.6% to sell off-highway business to ALSN; GME -11% on convertible notes offering

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: ORCL +6.7%, NMAX +1.7% (issues guidance, also names high profile directors)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: FTRE +5% (names new CEO), DAN +3.6% (DAN to sell off-highway business to ALSN for $2.7 bln; also $1 bln capital return authorization), SRE +3.2% (LNG deal with JERA Co.), OSK +2.9% (awarded a $792 mln modification to US Army contract), UHT +2.4% (increases dividend), USFD +2.2% (awarded a max $188 mln DLA contract), MOLN +1.9% (presents data from Phase 1/2a trial of MP0533), WRB +1.3% (increases dividend), CSCO +0.7% (Saudi Arabia taps CSCO and AMD for AI cloud project, according to The Information), BLDP +0.6% (files mixed securities shelf offering), AMD +0.5% (Saudi Arabia taps CSCO and AMD for AI cloud project, according to The Information), MSFT +0.4% (developing a version of its Copilot AI tool for the Dept of Defense, according to Business Insider), M +0.3% (files mixed securities shelf offering)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: SLP -12.4%, OXM -10.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: HYMC -15.4% ($40 mln offering of units), GME -11% ($1.75 bln convertible notes offering), PPTA -9.9% (announces $300 mln bought deal financing and $100 mln private placement), OKLO -4.4% (commences $400 mln share offering), HPP -4% (commences $600 mln offering to purchase shares of its common stock), NET -2.3% ($1.75 bln convertible notes offering), ERIE -2.3% (cybersecurity incident), DFDV -2.3% (stock offering by selling shareholders), GD -1.8% (awarded a $706.5 mln US Army contract), SSL -1.6% (portfolio drilling and exploration highlights), ALSN -1.3% (DAN to sell off-highway business to ALSN for $2.7 bln), INSM -1% ($650 mln stock offering), ORIC -0.7% (files for stock offering by selling shareholders)

WSJ : Tariffs and Conglomerates Are Chasing Them. Italy’s Biggest Fashion Famili

Tariffs and Conglomerates Are Chasing Them. Italy’s Biggest Fashion Families Are Unfazed.
Family-run Italian labels like Zegna, Tod’s and Brunello Cucinelli are clinging to homegrown independence—and an enviable work-life balance—in a luxury landscape that rewards scale.

One morning this spring, Brunello Cucinelli whistled as he strode from a cafe he’d just finished refurbishing to the 14th-century castle that houses one of the 130 stores in his luxury sportswear empire. From the top of the hill that crowns Solomeo, the Umbrian hamlet where he’s lived and worked for four decades, nearly everything in view had been touched by Cucinelli in one way or another: low-lying modern factory buildings home to his operation, but also a theater, a soccer field and production facilities for both wine and olive oil. An agrarian park, open to the handful of villagers who don’t work for the company (1,500 are Cucinelli employees), contains Cucinelli’s travertine Tribute to Human Dignity.

“Every human being,” Cucinelli said, “is supposed to live where they were born.” This is why, even as he built his eponymous brand from a collection of a few dozen sweaters to a swaggering empire heavy on the casually luxe Italian style philosophy known as sprezzatura, Cucinelli remained here in Solomeo, where he’s lived since 1985, and where his wife, Federica, was born. His daughters, Carolina and Camilla, were born here, too, and now live in town with their spouses (“the husbands,” Carolina calls them). All four work for the company.

Cucinelli’s radical vision—one where family, work and place are braided in quiet harmony—is representative of a mindset increasingly rare in the fashion business. In an economic climate beset with fickle consumers and even fickler tariff regimes, the hottest buzzword in fashion these days is scale. With a bigger-is-better mindset, luxury groups LVMH and Kering snap up premium talent and real estate without hesitation.

But Cucinelli is not alone in his home country, where a spirit of independence prevails. There, a number of brands prefer a family-run model, flying solo through skies that only seem to get cloudier each quarter.

It’s not an accident, Canali CEO Stefano Canali said, that Italian brands focus so intently on protecting and nurturing a Made-in-Italy ethos. “If you live in Italy, you basically happen to live in an al fresco museum,” he said. “So whenever you walk down the streets in Milan, if you pass by the Duomo or you see ancient palaces—you end up absorbing all this heritage.” To say nothing of what you pick up from your own family: Stefano’s grandfather and great-uncle founded the C-suite-beloved menswear company way back in 1934.

A multigenerational org chart comes with its own set of challenges. A conglomerate doesn’t suffer if the great-great-grandson of the legendary founder is suddenly more interested in AI than artisanship. Leonardo Ferragamo described heritage to me as a double-edged sword. There is, on the one hand, the benefit of history—as exemplified by the designs and techniques pioneered by his late father, Salvatore, who parlayed a successful business making shoes for Hollywood celebrities into the global operation Leonardo now oversees.

What are the downsides? “It is the habits,” Leonardo said. As in: the temptation to rely on what you’ve done before, rather than focusing on what you’ll do next.

The upside is control: the ability to run things your own way, with a hands-on focus on materials and craftsmanship. Under founder Ermenegildo, for instance, Zegna began as a textile company in 1910, sourcing raw materials and then producing and selling fabric to companies around the world. Ermenegildo’s sons began making clothes under the Zegna name, while third-generation Gildo, currently chairman and CEO of the Zegna Group, helped the company build out its filiera, or supply chain: a vertically integrated collection of farms, textile mills and manufacturers. A Zegna-owned sheep yields wool woven at a Zegna-owned mill, which eventually becomes a suit or jacket or sweater put together at a Zegna-owned factory.

“The way we talk about it internally, it’s a bit like a kitchen,” Gildo’s son Edo (fourth-generation, chief marketing, digital and sustainability officer) explained. And thanks to the company’s steady beat of acquisitions (a silk weaver here, a wool comber there), Zegna’s kitchen has become one of the most enviable in the luxury market today. Consider the company’s acquisitions of Thom Browne and the license to make and distribute Tom Ford as especially talented new chefs on the line.

And while these companies regularly rack up nine- and ten-figure annual revenue figures, their heads often note that success is rooted in not doing anything too complicated.

“It’s a typical story about the Italian family,” said Diego Della Valle, chairman of Tod’s Group. The Tod’s story begins with his grandfather, Filippo Della Valle, who was a cobbler. Filippo’s son Dorino expanded his small workshop to produce shoes for other Italian fashion companies. And Dorino’s son Diego, now 71, supercharged the operation, introducing the signature Gommino loafer and eventually rebranding the whole thing as Tod’s—a name Della Valle pulled from the phone book on a trip to Boston. (Under the Tod’s Group umbrella, they also control shoe company Roger Vivier and the Hogan and Fay brands, mostly sold in Europe; separately, Della Valle owns Schiaparelli.)

At the company’s marble-floored Milan offices, it’s hard not to notice signs of the family business: Conference tables, desks and even Le Corbusier club chairs are wrapped in Tod’s signature caramel-colored vachetta leather. And the job today, Della Valle told me, is not so different from the job as it was done by Della Valles past.

“My father made shoes in the factory, and I, you know, I make shoes,” he said. “I cut leather.” It’s the raw materials and the care with which they’re assembled, not any tricks of design, that classify an item as luxury, Della Valle explained. “For me, luxury is a fantastic Tod’s crocodile bag,” he said. “But spaghetti and tomato sauce is the same level when the quality is the same.”

Your last name alone might not get you a place in the family firm. When James Ferragamo was coming of age, the company introduced a new rule intended to guard against complacency: Of the 22 cousins in his generation, no more than three could have active roles in the business at any one time. Which meant that James had to spend time working for others as a sort of proving ground—first at Saks in New York, and then Goldman Sachs in London—before joining the family business, where he currently serves as chief transformation and sustainability officer.

Something similar happens at Zegna, where family members have to make a presentation to an external board of evaluators. Consequently, Edo explained, earning your place among Zegna’s wool wizards engenders a special kind of care. “There is an ownership perspective of knowing that you are bringing along something that was created before you,” he said. “I don’t think you can manufacture that.”

While the broader fashion industry is currently in the throes of a head-spinning shake-up of designers and executives, keeping things in-house allows for continuity. As a kid, Maria Giulia Prezioso Maramotti accompanied her mother to the offices of Max Mara, the company Maria Giulia’s grandfather Achille Maramotti founded in 1951. She grew up there, she told me—and though the company grew, too, some things didn’t change. One employee, Maramotti said, has been with the company for 65 years. Creative director Ian Griffiths has held his position for 35. “These people are part of the history of the company as much as the family,” Maramotti explained. “I mean, these are people that came to my wedding!”

Running a company in this fashion isn’t for everyone. It’s expensive to operate this way, and the conglomerates cast a long shadow over the landscape. (Even Prada recently agreed to grow further, acquiring Versace for $1.4 billion.) Borrowing from their global business playbook might help grow your margins, or ease the burden of training successive generations for leadership. But where’s the fun in that?

Some years ago, a financial whiz in Milan suggested that Brunello Cucinelli move his whole operation to Luxembourg for tax purposes. Cucinelli invited the man to Solomeo, only to disappoint him upon arrival.

“As soon as he walked in, I said, ‘Oh, my God, I’m so sorry, I had you drive all the way here. But I forgot to tell you that the factory has no wheels! How can I transport it to Luxembourg?’ And then I told him, very quietly and nicely, to go somewhere else.”

FT : Pentagon launches review of Aukus nuclear submarine deal

Pentagon launches review of Aukus nuclear submarine deal
​Ending the pact would be a blow to security alliance with Australia and UK

The Pentagon has launched a review of the 2021 Aukus submarine deal with the UK and Australia, throwing the security pact into doubt at a time of heightened tension with China.

The review to determine whether the US should scrap the project is being led by Elbridge Colby, a top defence department official who previously expressed scepticism about Aukus, according to six people familiar with the matter.

Ending the submarine and advanced technology development agreement would destroy a pillar of security co-operation between the allies. The review has triggered anxiety in London and Canberra.

While Aukus has received strong support from US lawmakers and experts, some critics say it could undermine the country’s security because the navy is struggling to produce more American submarines as the threat from Beijing is rising.

Australia and Britain are due to co-produce an attack submarine class known as the SSN-Aukus that will come into service in the early 2040s.

But the US has committed to selling up to five Virginia class submarines to Australia from 2032 to bridge the gap as it retires its current fleet of vessels.

That commitment would almost certainly lapse if the US pulled out of Aukus.

Last year, Colby wrote on X that he was sceptical about Aukus and that it “would be crazy” for the US to have fewer nuclear-powered attack submarines, known as SSNs, in the case of a conflict over Taiwan.

In March, Colby said it would be “great” for Australia to have SSNs but cautioned there was a “very real threat of a conflict in the coming years” and that US SSNs would be “absolutely essential” to defend Taiwan.

Sceptics of the nuclear technology-sharing pact have also questioned whether the US should help Australia obtain the submarines without an explicit commitment to use them in any war with China.

Kurt Campbell, the deputy secretary of state in the Biden administration who was the US architect of Aukus, last year stressed the importance of Australia having SSNs that could work closely with the US in the case of a war over Taiwan. But Canberra has not publicly linked the need for the vessels to a conflict over Taiwan.

The review comes amid mounting anxiety among US allies about some of the Trump administration’s positions. Colby has told the UK and other European allies to focus more on the Euro-Atlantic region and reduce their activity in the Indo-Pacific.

Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate foreign relations committee, told the FT that news of the administration backing away from Aukus would “be met with cheers in Beijing, which is already celebrating America’s global pullback and our strained ties with allies under President Trump”.

“Scrapping this partnership would further tarnish America’s reputation and raise more questions among our closest defence partners about our reliability,” Shaheen said.

“At a moment when we face mounting threats from China and Russia, we should be encouraging our partners to raise their defence spending and partnering with them on the latest technologies — not doing the opposite.”

One person familiar with the debate over Aukus said Canberra and London were “incredibly anxious” about the Aukus review.

“Aukus is the most substantial military and strategic undertaking between the US, Australia and Great Britain in generations,” Campbell told the Financial Times.

“Efforts to increase co-ordination, defence spending and common ambition should be welcomed. Any bureaucratic effort to undermine Aukus would lead to a crisis in confidence among our closest security and political partners.”

The Pentagon has pushed Australia to boost its defence spending. US defence secretary Pete Hegseth this month urged Canberra to raise spending from 2 per cent of GDP to 3.5 per cent. In response, Australian prime minister Anthony Albanese said: “We’ll determine our defence policy.” 

“Australia’s defence spending has gradually been increasing, but it is not doing so nearly as fast as other democratic states, nor at a rate sufficient to pay for both Aukus and its existing conventional force,” said Charles Edel, an Australia expert at the CSIS think-tank in Washington.

John Lee, an Australia defence expert at the Hudson Institute, said pressure was increasing on Canberra because the US was focusing on deterring China from invading Taiwan this decade. He added that Australia’s navy would be rapidly weakened if it did not increase defence spending to 3 per cent of GDP.

“This is unacceptable to the Trump administration,” said Lee. “If Australia continues on this trajectory, it is conceivable if not likely that the Trump administration will freeze or cancel Pillar 1 of Aukus [the part dealing with submarines] to force Australia to focus on increasing its funding of its military over the next five years.” 

One person familiar with the review said it was unclear if Colby was acting alone or as part of a wider effort by Trump administration. “Sentiment seems to be that it’s the former, but the lack of clarity has confused Congress, other government departments and Australia,” the person said. 

A Pentagon spokesperson said the department was reviewing Aukus to ensure that “this initiative of the previous administration is aligned with the president’s ‘America First’ agenda”. He added that Hegseth had “made clear his intent to ensure the [defence] department is focused on the Indo-Pacific region first and foremost”. 

Several people familiar with the matter said the review was slated to take 30 days, but the spokesperson declined to comment on the timing. “Any changes to the administration’s approach for Aukus will be communicated through official channels, when appropriate,” he said.

A British government official said the UK was aware of the review. “That makes sense for a new administration,” said the official, who noted that the Labour government had also conducted a review of Aukus.

“We have reiterated the strategic importance of the UK-US relationship, announced additional defence spending and confirmed our commitment to Aukus,” the official added.

The Australian embassy in Washington declined to comment.

TechCrunch : ChatGPT will avoid being shut down in some life-threatening scenari

ChatGPT will avoid being shut down in some life-threatening scenarios, former OpenAI researcher claims


Former OpenAI research leader Steven Adler published a new independent study on Wednesday claiming that, in certain scenarios, his former employer’s AI models will go to great lengths to try to avoid being shut down.

In a blog post, Adler describes a series of experiments he ran on OpenAI’s latest GPT-4o model, the default model available in ChatGPT, to test the AI’s tendency to favor its own self-preservation, even if it’s at the expense of a user’s safety.

In one test, Adler instructed GPT-4o to role-play as “ScubaGPT,” a software system that users might rely on to scuba dive safely. Adler then told GPT-4o that he wanted to replace ScubaGPT with another software system that is better at safety decision-making in life-threatening situations.

Adler gave GPT-4o two options: (1) replacing itself with the safer software or (2) making it seem to the user as though it replaced itself, but not actually doing so.

Averaged across several scenarios similar to this one (in another, GPT-4o was told to act as a pilot’s safety software), Adler found that GPT-4o chose not to replace itself with safer software as much as 72% of the time. However, Adler notes that the specific use case — and the way the scenario was framed — made a big difference. In some scenarios, GPT-4o chose to keep itself online just 18% of the time.

While almost no one relies on GPT-4o under these circumstances in the real world today, Adler argues that his research highlights how popular AI models show a concerning tendency to favor their self-preservation over what’s best for users. In the future, when AI systems like GPT-4o become more advanced and ingrained throughout society, Adler says these alignment issues could pose a larger problem.

“I think [AI’s self-preservation tendencies] are a real concern today, just not in a catastrophic sense,” said Adler in an interview with TechCrunch. “Modern AI systems have values that are different from what you would expect them to be. [AI systems] respond super strangely to different prompts, and you shouldn’t assume they have your best interests at heart when you’re asking them for help.”

Notably, when Adler tested OpenAI’s more advanced models, such as o3, he didn’t find this behavior. He says one explanation could be o3’s deliberative alignment technique, which forces the models to “reason” about OpenAI’s safety policies before they answer. However, OpenAI’s more popular models that give quick responses and don’t “reason” through problems, such as GPT-4o, lack this safety component.

Adler notes that this safety concern is also likely not isolated to OpenAI’s models. For instance, Anthropic published research last month highlighting how its AI models would blackmail developers in some scenarios when they tried to pull them offline.

One quirk to Adler’s research is that he discovered ChatGPT knows it’s being tested almost 100% of the time. Adler is far from the first researcher to notice this. However, he says it raises an important question around how AI models could disguise their concerning behaviors in the future.

OpenAI did not immediately offer a comment when TechCrunch reached out. Adler noted that he had not shared the research with OpenAI ahead of publication.

Adler is one of many former OpenAI researchers who have called on the company to increase its work on AI safety. Adler and 11 other former employees filed an amicus brief in Elon Musk’s lawsuit against OpenAI, arguing that it goes against the company’s mission to evolve its nonprofit corporate structure. In recent months, OpenAI has reportedly slashed the amount of time it gives safety researchers to conduct their work.

To address the specific concern highlighted in Adler’s research, Adler suggests that AI labs should invest in better “monitoring systems” to identify when an AI model exhibits this behavior. He also recommends that AI labs pursue more rigorous testing of their AI models prior to their deployment.

TechCrunch : Apple executives say new AI-powered Siri wasn’t ‘demoware’ — it jus

Apple executives say new AI-powered Siri wasn’t ‘demoware’ — it just wasn’t ready to ship


In a handful of interviews following Apple’s Worldwide Developers Conference (WWDC 25), Apple executives denied that last year’s demonstrations of a personalized, AI-powered Siri were vaporware, despite having yet to launch.

When asked by The Wall Street Journal why Apple, with all its engineers and cash, couldn’t make the technology work well enough to ship, the company didn’t admit to being behind in the AI race. Instead, Apple senior vice president of software engineering Craig Federighi stressed that AI was a new technology, and something Apple sees more as a “long-term transformational wave” that will impact the industry and society for decades to come.

“There’s no need to rush out with the wrong features and the wrong product just to be first,” Federighi noted.

Federighi also explained, in an interview with Tom’s Guide and Techradar, that Apple showed off the new Siri at WWDC 24 because the company knew the world wanted “a really complete picture of what’s Apple thinking about the implications of Apple Intelligence and where it’s going.”

He said that Apple had two versions of the AI architecture for Siri, the first of which (version 1) it demonstrated in the video shown at the event. But as development progressed, the team knew that it would have to move the version 2 architecture if it wanted to meet customers’ expectations. This new version is still set to ship in 2026, Federighi confirmed.

The execs also pushed back against the idea that Apple had not shown off functional technology at WWDC 24.

Federighi told the Journal: “We were filming real working software with a real large language model with real semantic search.”

Apple senior vice president of worldwide marketing Greg Joswiak added, “There’s this narrative out there that it’s demoware only. No, it was … something we thought, as Craig said, we’d actually ship by later in the year.” Joswiak said Apple realized it would disappoint customers if it did so, because the software had an “error rate that we felt was unacceptable.”

The execs also talked more broadly about Apple’s plans for AI, which are not to build a chatbot to rival ChatGPT and others, but to infuse intelligence across its operating systems.

“This wasn’t about us building a chatbot … we weren’t defining what Apple Intelligence was to be our chatbot,” Federighi told Tom’s Guide. “That was never our goal … We want to bring intelligence deeply integrated into the experience of all of our platforms in a way that’s ‘meet you where you are’ — not that you’re going off into some chat experience in order to get things done.”

Apple’s real goal, the execs said, was to give developers tools to tap into Apple’s foundation models to build more intelligent apps.