Why Italy will struggle to meet Nato’s higher defence spending target
Numbers game
Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte visits Italy’s Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni today, as Rome faces growing pressure to commit to higher military spending ahead of this month’s Nato summit, writes Amy Kazmin.
Context: Italy is one of Nato’s biggest defence spending laggards, allocating less than 1.5 per cent of GDP to defence in 2024, well below Nato’s existing 2 per cent target. US President Donald Trump has demanded allies pledge to spend 5 per cent at the summit in The Hague, or risk losing American protection.
Rome has announced it will meet the 2 per cent target this year, which analysts say might include the reclassification of some security expenditure as defence-related. Rutte has proposed a split target of 3.5 per cent spending on core defence capabilities, plus another 1.5 per cent on related areas such as cyber security and infrastructure.
Alessandro Marrone, a defence analyst at Rome’s Institute for International Affairs, said even that will be a tall ask for Meloni, who is likely to press for a long phase-in period for her highly indebted country.
“Moving to 3.5 per cent on core defence — personnel, equipment and technology, operational costs — will be a big challenge for Italy,” he said. “Italy will push not to change the target. It’s in the making and it’s hard to change it . . . But it will seek to set a timeline.”
Marrone said Rome would reach the target to spend 1.5 per cent of GDP on security and infrastructure more easily.
Defence minister Guido Crosetto has said repeatedly that Italy must do more on defence in light of Russia’s challenge, while Meloni is eager to maintain fiscal discipline and avoid unsettling bond markets.
Many Italians oppose higher defence spending, a view also espoused by deputy prime minister Matteo Salvini of the far-right League. All that means Meloni faces a tough balancing act to satisfy domestic demands while satisfying Nato allies and avoiding alienating Trump, with whom she has forged a warm rapport.
“Italy has long lived with the idea that it didn’t really need to bother about defence,” said Francesco Galietti, CEO of Policy Sonar, a political consultancy. “This is when Italy finds out what the new normal looks like.”