FT : UK closes in on drug pricing deal with White House

UK closes in on drug pricing deal with White House
NHS likely to pay billions more for some medicines in exchange for lower tariffs on British pharma exports

Sir Keir Starmer’s government believes it is closing in on a major drug pricing deal with the White House, in which Britain would pay billions of pounds more to buy some medicines in exchange for the US imposing “low to zero” tariffs for UK pharmaceutical exports.

British officials say talks are at an advanced stage. The ultimate prize, they say, would be for zero tariffs for all drugs made in the UK. Some people briefed on the talks say the US could push for a tariff of 10 per cent.

Varun Chandra, Sir Keir Starmer’s chief business adviser, has been leading talks. “We are quite close,” said one London official. “There have been extensive talks over the last 10 days.

“The pharma companies are pushing for a better deal, but we’ve told the US this is as far as we can go. We are demonstrating that we are taking on board their concerns.”

The UK government has proposed increasing the value at which the NHS deems a medicine cost-effective by up to 25 per cent, according to two officials.

But pharma industry sources said any deal would also have to include changes to the UK’s tax on medicine sales, otherwise any additional upfront spending would be clawed back under the tax, which caps how much the NHS spends on drugs. 

Trump announced plans for a 100 per cent tariff on branded medicines imported into the US late last month, but has not yet followed up with an executive order. The EU has said that its pharma exports will only be subject to a 15 per cent tariff, in line with its broader trade deal. 

Chandra has made it clear that Britain is willing to increase its spending on medicines — long a source of contention with the Trump administration — with UK officials confirming this would be a “significant one-off shift”. This would disappoint industry, which is pushing for the valuation metric, known as a quality adjusted-life year, to keep moving up in line with inflation. 

Officials said even the one-off move would add billions of pounds a year to Britain’s drugs bill over time as new and innovative products come on to the market. But they added that the initial cost to the cash-strapped UK Treasury would “not be big billions”.

There is yet to be an agreement over how the new drugs bill would be funded, although some in the Treasury believe it should come out of the existing NHS budget. Reeves last year increased the total health and social care budget by £22bn.

Two industry sources familiar with the negotiations also said the US was likely to demand the UK commit to increasing the proportion of GDP the country spends on innovative medicines, possibly doubling from 0.3 to 0.6 per cent. The US spends about 0.8 per cent, according to data compiled by the Association for the British Pharmaceutical Industry. 

Reeves, speaking on a visit to Washington DC this week, said she wanted to make Britain a more attractive location for global pharma companies and she was prepared to increase the amount Britain spends on drugs.

“We do need to make sure that we are an attractive place for pharmaceuticals and that includes on pricing,” Reeves said. “But in return for that we want to see more investment flow. That also requires NHS Trusts to be more open and willing to facilitate those trials as well. 

“We are working very closely both with both the pharmaceuticals industry and with the US on negotiations around tariffs. We have been very successful with the US in negotiating lower tariffs than anywhere else in the world and we want that to be the case with pharmaceuticals as well.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2025 V3(+)

>>> Up
* ABB PT Raised from 56 to 58 CHF at Oddo (+)
* Continental Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 65 euros (+)
* Dom Dev Raised to Buy at Trigon Dom Maklerski; PT 300 zloty (+)
* Eltel Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 9.70 kronor
* Entra Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 140 kroner
* EssilorLuxottica Raised to Buy at Equita; PT 320 euros (++)
* EssilorLuxottica Raised to Buy at BofA; PT 342 euros (++)
* Freeport Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
* Frequentis Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 81 euros
* Galderma PT Raised to 182 Swiss francs at Berenberg (+)
* International Paper Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $57.80
* Kuros PT Raised from 32.50 to 36.5 CHT at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Nestle PT Raised from 90 to 95 CHF at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Note Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 206 kronor
* Sanoma Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 12.60 euros
* Smiths PT Raised to 2,870 pence at Panmure Liberum (+)
* TEN Square Games Raised to Hold at Trigon Dom Maklerski (+)

>>> Down
* Lassila & Tikanoja Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 10.50 euros
* Nordea Bank Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 15.32 euros (+)
* Sligro Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 12 euros
* VAT PT cut from 470 to 450 CHF at Oddo (+)

>>> Initiation
* Amrize Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 47.36 Swiss francs (++)
* BP ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $37
* Shell ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $76
* VIP LN Rated New Corporate at Shore Capital (+)

>>> Call
* Strategists Say European Rally Has Run Its Course: Taking Stock (+)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers
  • Gapping up:
    • KZR +35.5%, RVMD +11%, IRON +10.2%, CTEV +7.2%, PRAX +5.7%, PSO +5.1%, EBC +4.5%, FIBK +4.1%, CSX +2.3%, ATAI +2.2%, RF +0.9%, SFNC +0.8%, KO +0.7%
  • Gapping down:
    • RCEL -19.5%, SLI -17.8%, BITF -11%, OZK -6.4%, LXEO -5.9%, CRWV -5%, LLY -4.5%, NVO -4.5%, ALV -4.2%, ORCL -4%, IBKR -4%, FNB -4%, AMRC -3.6%, TSHA -3.5%, WAFD -2.8%, CWK -2.5%, COMM -2%, JBL -1.8%, ROG -1.7%, BBVA -1.7%, BVN -1.6%, IMAB -1.1%, APH -1.1%, EQT -1%, DOV -0.9%

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • IBKR -2.8%, ALV -2.4%, LBRT -2.3%, OZK -2.3%, CNS -0.5%
Other news:
  • RCEL -30.5% (announces CEO transition; Sees Q3 revs below)
  • PLX -20.8% (Protalix BioTherapeutics & Chiesi Global Rare Diseases acknowledge CHMP negative opinion on every four week dosing regimen of Elfabrio in the EU)
  • SLI -18.4% (prices offering of 29,885,057 common shares at $4.35 per common share)
  • BITF -8% (prices offering of $500 mln of 1.375% convertible senior notes due 2031)
  • NVO -4.2% (President Trump says the cost of Ozempic will be reduced, according to Reuters)
  • LLY -4% (President Trump says the cost of Ozempic will be reduced, according to Reuters)
  • LXEO -4% (prices offering of 15,625,000 shares of its common stock at $8.00 per share)
  • IMAB -2.6% (strategic transformation to global biotech platform; to pursue Hong Kong IPO; rebrand as NovaBridge Biosciences)
  • ORCL -2.6% (Investor day update)
  • CWK -2.5% (shareholders approve redomiciliation)
  • CRWV -2% (reaffirms rationale behind CORZ acquisition; appoints new CRO)
  • BVN -1.9% (Q3 production)
  • ROG -1.7% (current Chair to not stand for re-election; appoints new Chair)
  • AMRC -1.4% (commercial operations of 50MW battery energy storage system)
  • JBL -1.1% (Executive Chairman and certain directors to not seek re-election)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:
  • PSO +4.4%, CSX +2.5%, HBAN +1.8%, FITB +1.7%, WAFD +1.3%, SFNC +1.1%, TFC +1.1%, CMA +0.9%, RF +0.5%, AXP +0.5%
Other news:
  • KZR +42.7% (regulatory update on Zetomipzomib program)
  • IRON +9.2% (receipt of FDA Commissioner's National Priority Voucher for Bitopertin)
  • RVMD +7.4% (Daraxonrasib (RMC-6236) awarded voucher from FDA under Commissioner's National Priority Voucher Pilot Program)
  • CTEV +7.2% (renews contracts)
  • PRAX +5.7% (prices $525 mln offering consisting of common stock and warrats)
  • EBC +4.5% (election deadline for merger and anticpated delisting of HarborOne (HONE)
  • FIBK +4.1% (Security First bank to acquire branches from First Interstate Bank)
  • REFI +3.2% (directors and officers disclose open market stock purchases)
  • IONQ +2% (filed prospectus supplement to the prospectus included in the Company's registration statement on Form S-3ASR filed with the SEC on February 26, 2025 covering the resale by certain selling stockholders of an aggregate of 6,649,263 shares)

>>> US Research Calls I

Research Calls I
  • Upgrades
    • AppFolio (APPF) upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc, tgt $285
    • Bentley Systems (BSY) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Rosenblatt, tgt $58
    • Boston Properties (BXP) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $83
    • Commercial Metals (CMC) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup, tgt $65
    • Continental AG (CTTAY) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank
    • Deere (DE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS, tgt $535
    • Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) upgraded to Buy from Hold at HSBC, tgt $50
    • Intuitive Machines (LUNR) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank, tgt $18
    • International Paper (IP) upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel, tgt $57.80
    • Invitation Homes (INVH) upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $38
    • Jefferies Financial (JEF) upgraded to Outperform from Perform at Oppenheimer, tgt $81
    • Marsh McLennan (MMC) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Keefe Bruyette, tgt $191
    • Moody's (MCO) upgraded to Market Perform from Underperform at Raymond James
    • Pinnacle Financial (PNFP) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Hovde Group, tgt $106
    • Zions Bancorp (ZION) upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Robert W. Baird, tgt $65
  • Downgrades
    • AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) downgraded to Underweight from Overweight at Barclays, tgt $60
    • Bank OZK (OZK) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Booz Allen (BAH) downgraded to Hold from Buy at TD Cowen, tgt $105
    • Bragg Gaming (BRAG) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Citizens JMP
    • Graphic Packaging (GPK) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Kezar Life Sciences (KZR) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at William Blair
    • Kezar Life Sciences (KZR) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies, tgt $7
    • Kilroy Realty (KRC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $44
    • Reinsurance Group (RGA) downgraded to Underperform at Raymond James
    • Silgan Holdings (SLGN) downgraded to Outperform from Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $53
    • SmartStop Self Storage (SMA) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $39
    • Sonoco (SON) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
    • Southern Company (SO) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Ladenburg, tgt $102.50
    • UDR (UDR) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $46
  • Others
    • Ascendis Pharma (ASND) initiated with a Strong Buy at Raymond James, tgt $271
    • BP (BP) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $37
    • Cracker Barrel (CBRL) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $42
    • Credo Technology (CRDO) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan, tgt $165
    • Delek US (DK) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $43
    • Exxon Mobil (XOM) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $156
    • HF Sinclair (DINO) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $58
    • iBio (IBIO) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink, tgt $2
    • InvenTrust Properties (IVT) initiated with a Neutral at JPMorgan, tgt $30
    • Kopin (KOPN) resumed with a Buy at Stifel, tgt $5.50
    • Kontoor Brands (KTB) initiated with an Outperform at Robert W. Baird, tgt $105
    • Marathon Petroleum (MPC) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $214
    • Occidental (OXY) initiated with an Underweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $42
    • Phillips 66 (PSX) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $154
    • Primo Brands (PRMB) initiated with a Hold at Jefferies, tgt $23
    • Shell (SHEL) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo, tgt $76
    • Suncor (SU) initiated with an Equal Weight at Wells Fargo
    • Valero (VLO) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo, tgt $216
    • Veracyte (VCYT) initiated with a Buy at Freedom Capital, tgt $45
    • VSE Corp. (VSEC) initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank, tgt $195

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 17th of October 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* ABB PT Raised from 56 to 58 CHF at Oddo (+)
* Continental Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank; PT 65 euros (+)
* Dom Dev Raised to Buy at Trigon Dom Maklerski; PT 300 zloty (+)
* Eltel Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 9.70 kronor
* Entra Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 140 kroner
* Freeport Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $50
* Frequentis Raised to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 81 euros
* Galderma PT Raised to 182 Swiss francs at Berenberg (+)
* International Paper Raised to Buy at Stifel; PT $57.80
* Kuros PT Raised from 32.50 to 36.5 CHT at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Nestle PT Raised from 90 to 95 CHF at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Note Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 206 kronor
* Sanoma Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 12.60 euros
* Smiths PT Raised to 2,870 pence at Panmure Liberum (+)
* TEN Square Games Raised to Hold at Trigon Dom Maklerski (+)

>>> Down
* Lassila & Tikanoja Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 10.50 euros
* Nordea Bank Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 15.32 euros (+)
* Sligro Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 12 euros
* VAT PT cut from 470 to 450 CHF at Oddo (+)

>>> Initiation
* BP ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $37
* Shell ADRs Rated New Equal-Weight at Wells Fargo; PT $76
* VIP LN Rated New Corporate at Shore Capital (+)

>>> Call
* Strategists Say European Rally Has Run Its Course: Taking Stock (+)