(Makor- Oscar Gruss) AVOL- quick thoughts on valuation



From: LAURA ANREDER (OSCAR GRUSS & SON IN) At: Jul 31 2015 15:24:48
To: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO)
Subject: Fwd:AVOL- quick thoughts on valuation
AVOL - Aircraft leasing company (Ireland headquarters, Cayman Island corporation), 40% Asia/Pacific focus, 2.5 year fleet age, 49 customers in 28 countries, 73% single aisle aircraft. Air Lease (NYSE-AL), which is U.S.-based) trades at P/E multiple of 10.5x 2016E ($3.17 EPS), trading multiple implies ~$34/share for AVOL (note: AL 33% tax rate). Aircastle Ltd. (NYSE-AYR) (U.S. headquarters, Bermuda corporation) trades at ~10x P/E multiple ($2.29 EPS), tax rate <10%. Fly Leasing Ltd. (NYSE-FLY) (Ireland headquarters, Bermuda corporation) trades at 8.5x P/E multiple ($1.88 EPS, decline from 2015E $1.88 EPS). Last, AerCap Holdings NV (NYSE-AER) (Netherlands-based), an integrated/ diversified aircraft-related company with a $9.0B market cap, trades at 8.0x P/E multiple ($5.71 EPS) (note: ~15% tax rate). AER along with CIT Group Inc. (NYSE-CIT), which also has aircraft leasing operations, may have been the other party that made the $30/share for AVOL. DISCLAIMER

This information represents neither an offer to buy or sell any security nor, because it does not take into account the differing needs of individual clients, investment advice. Those seeking investment advice specific to their financial profiles and goals should contact their Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated sales representative. Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated believes this information to be reliable, but no representation is made as to accuracy or completeness. This information does not analyze every material fact concerning a company, industry, or security. Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated assumes that this information will be read in conjunction with other publicly available data. Matters discussed here are subject to change without notice. There can be no assurance that reliance on the information contained here will produce profitable results. A security denominated in a foreign currency is subject to fluctuations in currency exchange rates, which may have an adverse effect on the value of the security upon the conversion into local currency of dividends, interest, or sales proceeds. The value of securities and depositary receipts of foreign issuers that are denominated in United States dollars are also influenced by fluctuations in currency exchange rates.

© 2015 Oscar Gruss & Son Incorporated. All rights reserved.

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:JASN +28.9%, SKYW +18.3%, HTCH +15.2%, YRCW +15.2%, COLM +11.7%, ZLTQ +10.9%, NSU +9.3%, ATEN +8.7%, ELLI +8.6%, CVEO +8.2%, MGI +7.9%, EXPE +7.8%, SAND +7.8%, NLNK +7.6%, MXWL +7.1%, ( selected as exclusive capacitive energy storage supplier by subsidiary of China's largest rail company, CRRC Corp), IMMR +6.7%, NGVC +6.3%, FRGI +6.1%, PXLW +5.5%, RCL +4.5%, FIX +4.1%, ( increases quarterly dividend), TRP +4%, AXL +4%, MOH +3.7%, BCOR +3.4%, (Blucora's Infospace subsidiary signs deal to distribute Bing search results and advertising content through the Infospace network of Web search properties and partner websites on desktop and mobile), WETF +3.4%, HMC +3.2%, TNP +3.2%, ISNS +3.1%, TNDM +3.1%, PFS +3.1%, AMGN +2.7%, TPX +2.3%, (appoints Barry Hytinen as EVP and CFO, effective immediately ), WU +2.3%, UHS +1.8%, AUY +1.6%, CRAY +1.4%, STX +1.4%, CATM +1.2%, CALD +1.1%, DGI +1%, RGC +1%, NWL +0.9%

M&A news: CCE +8.3% (WSJ report on merger talks)

Other news: MXWL +17.6% (selected as exclusive capacitive energy storage supplier by subsidiary of China's largest rail company, CRRC Corp; co also reported earnings), BCOR +3.4% (signed a three-year search and advertising deal to distribute Bing results through the Infospace network; co also reported earnings), TNDM +3.1% (entered into a non-exclusive Development Agreements with Dexcom (DXCM), to integrate future generation Tandem insulin pumps with the Dexcom G5 and G6 products; co also reported earnings), ENH +2.7% to replace TMST in the S&P MidCap 400), JUNO +1.9% ( announces US FDA clearance of its INDA regarding JCAR015, to treat Adult Relapsed/Refractory Acute Lymphoblastic Leukemia ), IDI +1.4% (Mitchell P. Kopin disclosed 8.2% passive stake in 13G filing), EVAR +1.3% (Lombard Medical acquires Altura Medical), SALT +1.1% (10.31% stakeholder Monarch Alternative Capital issues letter to Board; believes co should resume its asset sale program and use the proceeds to buy back stock)

Analyst comments: GPRO +4.4% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup), AIXG +4% (upgraded to Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas), WU +2.3% (upgraded to Equal Weight from Underweight at Barclays), UA +0.7% (upgraded to Buy at Argus), ALV +0.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Neutral at Credit Suisse), CB +0.5% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Bernstein)

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance: OCLS -15.3%, SZYM -15%, CPSI -11.9%, OCN -11.6%, SYNA -11.1%, OUTR -10%, (appoints Erik Prusch as its Chief Executive Officer, effective July 31, 2015), INT -8.9%, QLGC -7.7%, TSYS -7.6%, FLR -7.5%, (announces agreement to divest 50% of its shares in Fluor S.A, to a leading multinational Spanish construction company for EUR 39 mln ), LNKD -6.7%, HBI -6.6%, COHR -6.4%, FEYE -4.9%, OMCL -4.5%, SQI -4.3%, CHEF -3.8%, GIL -3.8%, BCOV -3.7%, SAM -3.2%, RLGY -2.9%, MTD -2.8%, EA -2.4%, COHU -2.1%, MERC -1.9%, EGO -1.9%, KCG -1.8%, XOM -1.7%, TNAV -1.3%, AMCC -1.1%, WY -1.1%, BPL -1%

Select metals/mining stocks trading lower: FCX -2.3%, GOLD -1.5%, SLV -1.1%, GG -0.9%, GFI -0.8%, BHP -0.1%

Select oil/gas related names showing early weakness: FRO -2.8%, STO -2.7%, PBR -2.6%, SDRL -2.5%, BP -1.7%

Other news: RADA -32.4% (prices a public offering of 6,910,569 of its ordinary shares at$1.23/share), MILL -28% (NYSE to suspend trading immediately in Miller Energy Resources and commence delisting proceedings), RAS -6% (commences an underwritten public offering), Q -1.4% (launches a 7 mln share secondary offering of common stock, by stockholders that include Bain Capital Investors)

Analyst comments: Z -2.5% (downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Cowen), SSYS -1.4% (downgraded to Underperform from Neutral at BofA/Merrill; downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS), MDLZ -0.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)

>>> Royal Caribbean beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY15 EPS above

Royal Caribbean beats by $0.11, reports revs in-line; guides FY15 EPS above consensus
Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $0.84 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.11 better than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $0.73; revenues rose 3.9% year/year to $2.06 bln vs the $2.06 bln consensus. Co issues upside guidance for FY15, sees EPS of $4.65-4.75 (Prior $4.50-4.60), excluding non-recurring items, vs. $4.62 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Net Yields are expected to increase in the range of 2.9% to 3.9% on a Constant-Currency basis (down 1.1% to 0.1% As-Reported).
  • NCC excluding fuel are expected to be better than flat on a Constant-Currency basis (down approximately 2.5% As-Reported), including some increased investment in marketing activities.

>>> Exxon Mobil misses by $0.11, misses on revs

Exxon Mobil misses by $0.11, misses on revs

Reports Q2 (Jun) earnings of $1.00 per share, $0.11 worse than the Capital IQ Consensus Estimate of $1.11; revenues fell 33.4% year/year to $74.11 bln vs the $75.22 bln consensus
  • Downstream and Chemical segment earnings increased significantly from the second quarter of 2014, driven by higher margins, continued strong demand, and the quality of the company's product and asset mix.
  • However, higher Downstream and Chemical earnings were more than offset by the impact of weaker Upstream realizations and lower asset management gains
  • On an oil-equivalent basis, production increased 3.6 percent from the second quarter of 2014. Liquids production totaled 2.3 mln barrels per day, up 243,000 barrels per day, with project ramp-up and entitlement effects partly offset by field decline. Natural gas production was 10.1 bln cubic feet per day, down 622 mln cubic feet per day from 2014 due to regulatory restrictions in the Netherlands. Project volumes and entitlement effects offset field decline.
  • Upstream earnings were $2 bln in the second quarter of 2015, down $5.9 bln from the second quarter of 2014.
    • Lower liquids and gas realizations decreased earnings by $4.5 bln, while volume effects increased earnings by $330 mln driven by new developments. All other items decreased earnings by $1.7 bln, including the one-time $260 mln deferred income tax impact related to the tax rate increase in Alberta, Canada, and the absence of prior year asset management gains.
  • Downstream earnings were $1.5 bln, up $795 mln from the second quarter of 2014.
    • Stronger margins increased earnings by $1.1 bln. Volume and mix effects decreased earnings by $80 mln. All other items, including higher maintenance expenses, decreased earnings by $230 mln. Petroleum product sales of 5.7 mln barrels per day were 104,000 barrels per day lower than the prior year's second quarter.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: QTM +29.4%, MXWL +17.6%, SKYW +17.2%, YRCW +13.9%, COLM +11.7%, ZLTQ +10.9%, HTCH +10.3%, ELLI +9.3%, NSU +9.3%, ATEN +8.7%, CCE +8.6%, CRAY +8.4%, EXPE +7.8%, SAND +7.8%, NGVC +6.3%, FRGI +6.1%, CVEO +6%, IMMR +5.8%, PXLW +5.5%, FIX +4.1%, TRP +4%, BCOR +3.4%, BCOR +3.4%, TNDM +3.1%, ISNS +3.1%,TNDM +3.1%, WETF +2.8%, ENH +2.7%, TPX +2.3%, MOH +2.2%, AMGN +1.9%, UHS +1.8%, JUNO +1.7%, WU +1.7%, AUY +1.6%, IDI +1.4%, EVAR +1.3%, CATM +1.2%, SALT +1.1%, DGI +1%, RGC +1%

Gapping down: MILL -28%, OCLS -17.5%, SYNA -14.6%, CPSI -11.9%, OUTR -10%, OCN -9.9%, SZYM -8.8%, QLGC -7.7%, TSYS -7.6%, FLR -7.5%, HBI -6.6%, COHR -6.4%, LNKD -6.1%, RAS -5.2%, FEYE -4.8%, OMCL -4.5%, SQI -4.3%, CHEF -3.8%, BCOV -3.7%, SAM -3.2%, WFM -3%, MTD -2.8%, COHU -2.1%, EA -1.9%, MERC -1.9%, CALD -1.6%, TNAV-1.3%, Q -1.1%, AMCC -1.1%, WY -1.1%, DTLK -0.9%, TXTR -0.9%, CPT -0.7%, FFBC -0.7%, VVUS -0.6%

>>> K+S shares up as Potash Corp deal seen as more likely - RTRS

K+S shares up as Potash Corp deal seen as more likely POT.TO SDFGn.DE - RTRS


31-JUL-2015 11:53:00

Shares in German potash miner K+S SDFGn.DE gain 2.6 percent on Friday for the best DAX .GDAXI performance after remarks by Canada's Potash Corp POT.TO spur market expectation tha a takeover deal is more likely.
Potash Corp, having proposed a 41 euro-per-share deal, says it remains focused on acquiring K+S and is prepared to make "binding commitments" to preserve jobs but the German group replies it still sees no basis for talks. (Full Story)
A new offer might come after K+S reports Q2 results on Aug. 13, says Baader Bank analyst Markus Mayer. "We think a new offer price between 45-50 euros is likely."
"After Potash Corp's remarks yesterday, people are increasingly confident that they won't let up on K+S and that there could be a deal after all," says one trader.
K+S shares have risen 26 percent since Potash proposed the takeover on June
25.

(BFW) Potash New Offer for K+S Likely After Summer, K+S’s 2Q: Baader

Potash New Offer for K+S Likely After Summer, K+S’s 2Q: Baader
2015-07-31 07:18:04.728 GMT


By Chiara Remondini
(Bloomberg) -- Baader-Helvea says Potash Corp. new offer
for K+S may come after summer break/K+S’s 2Q, according to note;
brokerage says new offer at between EU45-EU50 likely.

* Baader-Helvea (buy on K+S): Potash Corp.’s mgmt tried to
lower expectations of significantly higher takeover price
* Says Potash Corp.’s wording at 2Q yday more constructive
* Notes K+S’s 2Q consensus has come down by 5% in past 3 weeks
* NOTE yday: Potash Said It May Sell Some Equity Investments
for Acquisitions; Still seeking ‘constructive dialogue’ with
K+S
* NOTE: K+S due to report 2Q on Aug. 13

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To contact the reporter on this story:
Chiara Remondini in Milan at +39-02-8064-4241 or
cremondini@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story:
James Ludden at +44-20-3525-2645 or
jludden@bloomberg.net
Gaurav Panchal