(DBK) Telecom Italia Buy : Q3 review: Vivendi backs conversion, Orange watches I

Q3 review: Vivendi backs conversion, Orange watches Italy

* 15% upside for ords, 19% for savers
TI is up 32% ytd, outperforming telcos 20%. Its discount to peers has narrowed
to 7% on 2016E unlevered FCF yield and to 9% on EV/EBITDA. Q3 results were
broadly in line, back to positive territory in domestic mobile. Although most of
the positive news we expected is out (e.g. Wind/3 Italia merger probability at
75% in our SOP), with 15/19% upside to TP for ords/savers, proceeds from
savers conversion giving better negotiation power on INWIT and possible Tim
Brazil disposal, we maintain Buy. Orange’s CEO declared he needs to watch
Italy in light of potential cross-border consolidation (as reported by Il Sole).

* Solid conference call: Vivendi supports savings conversion. Main points:
1) Saving shares conversion: all of the BOD present and voted unanimously;
Vivendi confirmed it will support it (Reuters/Il Sole). 2) Sell Brazil at a good
price? Yes, all options that create value are considered. No formal approach
from LetterOne/Oi yet. If it comes, it will be taken to the BOD. 3) Domestic
mobile: not just stabilization expected but growth through reduction of below
the line offers, better 4G quality and move to bundles driving usage/ARPUs
(31% still out, with ARPU 60% below bundle avg.; avg. mobile BB usage
1.1GB/m with 1.5-1.6GB for 4G users). 4) Commercial costs scaled back in Q4:
TI now has positive mg. on handsets and subsidies fell dramatically over time,
even for business. 5) Move to integrated wholesale to treat all clients using the
same systems/processes, with the aim of improving quality for all players −
including TI retail − and reaching a peaceful environment where everybody can
eat out of a bigger pie. Litigation with Fastweb is now settled (by far the
largest) and well within provisions made in Q2. 6) Fixed: Line loss should start
falling a few thousands in Q4 (DBe 17k improvement): activations remain
strong thanks to fibre, and cancellation of voice-only clients starts fading. Price
pressure is intense in consumer/SME/soho: ADSL offered aggressively and TI
promoting fibre to move clients to it as fast as possible. 7) Metroweb a nonevent.
TI targets FTTH in 100 towns by 2018; avg. cost/home passed E200-
500/home. 8) 2016 domestic EBITDA stabilization is under way. 1-2 quarters
under pressure in Brazil following the new bundles offer portfolio launch, but
no major impact as a) SACs/ARPU still at 2.2x, b) no handset subsidies, c) offnet
impact on the postpaid bundle was already there, d) new 4G positioning.

* Estimate revision, lower Brazilian handset sales, 2015 neg. one-offs at E0.9bn
Sales are -1.6%/-1.6%/-1.9% in 2015/16/17; EBITDA -6.1%/-0.5%/-0.4%.

* SOTP-based TP E1.34 for both stocks; risk − a French telco (see page 19)
WACC 7.1%; g: +1%/0% mobile/fixed. TI is at a 9%/7% discount to peers on 2016
EV/EBITDA/unl.FCF yield. Risks: no M&A, macro. VIV/Niel at 24.3% combined postconversion.
Players interested in TI may opt to pay this stake at premium rather than
a tender offer on 100% of TI, though Niel’s derivatives maturities are post-Jun-16.

>>> Street Pre-Market

ML:
AFRICA OIL - Farms out 50% of Kenya output for $365m cash & $480m further+30%
TULLOW - Positive read from Africa oil farming out 50% of Kenyan output..+10%
SERCO - Amends terms of loss making Armidale Class Patrol Boats contract..+5%
AGGREKO - Maintains FY guidance, cons expected a cut, short int at 11%....+5%
INMARSAT - Singapore Airlines signing up for Flobal Xpress................+3%
KINGSPAN - FY trading profit expected of c€250m, vs consensus of €229m..+2-3%
JUP/HGG - Press spec Wells Fargo looking at both cos for London expansion.+2%
MAERSK - Mentioned as potential bidders for Neptune Orient in Singapore...+2%
BMPS - Capital improves to 11.7% but operationally weak and NPLs worse....+2%
SUNRISE - EBITDA a beat on in line revs, reit FY targets and dividend...+1-2%
HISCOX - Premium growth of 12.9% YTD, vs 12%, statement reads well......+1-2%
NAT GRID - Said to plan sale of gas networks according to spec............+1%
TUI - planning to sell HOTELBEDS.COM for about EU1bln in early 2016.......+1%
ITALCEMENTI - Expects operating results slightly down v 14, all about bid.u/c
GBL - Q3 NAV EUR 13.8bn v 14.2bn MLe, incubator stakes increases in line..u/c
ADIDAS - GBL inc stake to 4.7%, tgt for most investments 10-15%...........u/c
CAP COUNTIES - conducting a review to sell Kensington Olympia.............u/c
ROLLS - Telegraph reports co blocks ValuAct from gaining seat on board....-1%
ATLANTIA - Q3 in line, airport disposable off the table will disappoint...-1%
CONTI - EBIT 5% light, margin tgt raise in line, FCF the positive.........-2%
RENAULT - Gov says opposes RNO/Nissan merger, goes against prev headlines.-2%
TALK TALK - Expected to scrap dividend post hacking scandal...............-3%
IHG - Co says not considering merger or sale, ADRs traded -4.5%...........-5%

CS:
Abb +1-2% Would Consider Offer for Power Grid Unit
Aggreko +2-3% Capex down slightly, maintains guidance
Air France M/P Traffic stats solid. +2.8% in Oct
BT -0.5% U.K. Broadband Providers May Face Multimillion-Pound Levy
C&C +0.5-1% Strategic review, may sell Venues business
Continental -3% EBIT 1.08bn vs 1.147bn, sales 3% miss
Henderson +2-3% Wells Fargo may be looking at acquisition, Sunday Times
Jupiter +2-3% Wells Fargo may be looking at acquisition, Sunday Times
Hiscox UNCH Strong performance in insurance lines in Hiscox USA/London
IAG +2% Qatar Airways CEO Says ‘Very Likely’ to Increase Stake
IHG -4% Says It Isn’t Considering Sale or merger
Kingspan +1-2% 9m sales +3% on underlying basis, outlook ok
Lufthansa -1% Cancelled almost 1,000 flights for Monday on strike action
Miners UNCH Copper +0.20%, Brent +1.20%, Iron Ore +1.30%, China +2.01%
Novo Nord -0.5% Negative drug update for Victoza (diabetes)
Rocket Inter -2-3% Said to postpone IPO of Hellofresh
Sanofi UNCH Positive phase 3 study of Sarilumab
Serco +2% Positive news on service support contract in Australia
Sky -0.5% U.K. Broadband Providers May Face Multimillion-Pound Levy
Sunrise +2-3% Revs 0.7% below cons, EBITDA 0.3% ahead, keeps outlook
Tui +2% Said to plan sale of its online hotel booking business


JPM:
AGGREKO squeeze as co reaffirms targets, retains guidance +5%
ALTANTIA Weak 9m #s; see 2-3% downgrade to FY consensus EBITDA -2%
CONTINENTAL Sales, EBIT miss. Outlook maintained, FCF tweaked higher unch
ELRINGKLING Margin above depressed exp; Higher Capex weighs on FCF unch
EUSKALTEL Loses majority of Basque gov’t contract to TEF -3%
HGG/JUP S Times: Wells Fargo Eyes Britain’s Jupiter, Henderson +2%
HISCOX Solid Q3 unch
HOME RETAIL Website glitch over weekend -1%
IHG Stmnt from co: NOT considering a potential sale or merger -4%
UNICREDIT Press on strategy day Weds, 12k job cuts mentioned (not new) unch




Numis:
* AGGREKO (+1-2%) On track with business plan, maintains guidance
* BURBERRY (-1%) China belt tightening squeezes profits; Times
* CAPCO (+1%) Confirms press on Olympia, asset under review may/may not sell
* CLIPPER (+2%) New contract with M & Co, no financials given
* DIGNITY (+1%) Expects to slightly outperform, shares spiked on Friday.
* EMPIRIC PROP (mkt) Acquiring student accommodation in Cardiff for £40m
* GOAL (-10%) WARNING, expects FY to be £8.2m-£8.6m vs £9.3m-£9.8m est
* GVC (+2%) Rebuffed approaches for Bwin.Party assets; Telegraph
* HISCOX (+1%) Written Premiums slightly ahead of our est
* HENDERSON (+2%) Could be on Wells Fargo's shopping list; Times
* INMARSAT (+1%) Singapore Airlines to adopt GX Aviation Services
* INTECONTINENTAL HOTELS (-3%) Board say not considering sale or merger
* JD WETHERSPOON (+1%) Placed a further 34 pubs on the market; Times
* JUPITER (+2%) Could be on Wells Fargo's shopping list; Times
* LONMIN (-5%) Heavy losses as per press & $407m underwritten rights
* M&S (mkt) CEO confirms he will stay at the helm/refuses a pay rise; Mail
* NATIONAL GRID (+3-4%) To sell £10bn of its gas distribution ops; Times
* REDCENTRIC (mkt) Inline numbers, confident outlook
* ROLLS-ROYCE (mkt) Resisting ValuAct demands for board seat; Telegraph
* SAB MILLER (mkt) To sell MIller for >$10bn to seal merger deal; Times
* SAGA (mkt) Launching long-awaited investment services biz today; Times
* SERCO (+2%) Agreement with Oz Govt to amend terms of ACPB contract
* SIERRA RUTILE (+2%) Sierra Leone has been declared "Ebola free"
* TALKTALK (-2%) Likely to scrap dividend in hacking aftermath; Telegraph
* WILLIAM HILL (+1%) BUY, share price slump an intriguing; Times
MF
*CONTI-Sales 9.62b(9.8),NI 635.7m(689),Ebit 1.08b margin/CF Tgt.....-1%
*SUNRISE-Sales 478m(486.4),Ebitda 164m(166.8),confirms guidance.....+0.25%
*ROCHE-Investor update,launches new H&E tissue staining solution....+0.5%
*CS-May cut bonuses after writedowns,could report FY -2.6-2.8bln....-0.25%
*IAG-Qatar very likely to increase stake & invest in Indigo.........+1%
*RENAULT/NISSAN-French Govt doesn't want merger,may cut stake.......-0.5%
*D/WOHNEN-Urges Vonovia(-0.5%) investors to stop hostile takeover...U/C
*THYSSEN-To achieve elevator profit targets before 2020.............+1%
*AIR FRANCE-Oct passengers +2.8% at 8.1m,Load factor 90.1%..........+1%
*TUI-Plans sale of Hotelbeds,could be worth €1b,sale start of 16....+0.5%
*QSC-Rev 100m(100),Ebitda 12m(12),Net -1.7m(-2.1),FY confirmed......+0.5%
*ELRINGKLINGER-Rev 366.1m(364),Ebit 36.7m(32.5),NI 20m(17),O/L ok...+0.5%
*MONTE PASCHI-Net -109m(-127),NII 569m(573),CET1 11.7% end Sept.....+1%
*ROCKET-Hello Fresh Food to postpone IPO till next yr,due 2 mkts....-3%
*BAYER-Presented 1st p2 datafor vericiguat in heart failure,+ve.....+1%
RBC Indications:
AFRICA OIL +25% Announces farm-out deal with MAERSK, US$350m - big price.
AGGREKO +3% Q3 numbers weak, rev light but reaffirms FY forecasts=relief
AIR FRANCE +1% Oct. Traffic & load factor data ahead v last yr strike.
BHP BILLITON -1% -5.64% in Aus on Samarco update, may have licence suspension
BP/STATOIL -1% APACHE ($18bln) said to receive unsolicited takeover approach
CONTINENTAL -2% Q3 clean is weak due to power train business, margin upped.
HISCOX +1% 9M IMS inline, Prem. growth ahead, investment return tad light.
IHG -5% ADR -8% after it stated it was not considering sale/merger
JUPITER/HGG +2% Takeover talk in the Sunday Times.
KABEL DT. +2% Q2 revenues and ARPU both beat and reconfirms outlook
LONMIN +20% Announces $407m underwritten rights issue, 46/1, 27 new @ 1p.
MITTAL/TKA 0% Weak Oct China Steel exports weak NLMK numbers, Q3 rev -23%!
NAT.GRID +2% S.Times reports company to sell UK gas distribution bus ~£10bln
NYRSTAR +5% Announces €275m rights offering to support balance sheet
ROCKET INT. 0% Confirmaiton of postponement of IPO of HelloFresh food unit.
STAN.CHART. +1% 2nd night of trading at large premium in HK on tight borrow.
SUNRISE 0% Q3 EBITDA inline, reiterated guidance. Rev 487m v 491 exp.
TULLOW +2% Read through from farm out deal between MAERSK/AOI in Kenya.

Investec
* AIRBUS-sees 1 A380 order soon but unlikely at Dubai air show..............-1%
* AIR FRANCE-Oct passengers +2.8%, load factor -0.7% to 90.1%...............+1%
* BMPS-Q3 net loss better, plans bad loan sale by year end..................+2%
* CONTI-Q3 miss but reits FY rev f/cast, raises FY margin f/cast............-1%
* EDP-raises stake in Portgas for €42m......................................U/C
* ENEL-announces business plan for Latam unit...............................+1%
* IAG-Qatar Air CEO keen to increase 10% stake, will take their time........+2%
* HEIDELBERGCEMENT-Italcementi Q3 misses by 7%..............................-2%
* LUFTHANSA-another strike called for today,cancels 1000 flights............-2%
* NOVO NORD-diabetes drug fails to help heart failure(Reuters)..............-1%
* RENAULT-French Govt opposes Nissan merger. No real surprise there........-1%
* ROCKET INTERNET-postpones Hellofresh ipo until next year..................-3%
* THYSSEN-to achieve elevator profit targets before 2020....................+2%
* TUI-said to plan €1bn sale of Hotelbeds online unit.......................+2%
* UCG-may cut 12k jobs, asset sales with results Weds (FT)..................+2%
UK
* AGGREKO-Q3.Reassuringly in line.Weak into stmt.............................+5%
* CAPITAL & COUNTIES-Confirms spec it may sell Venues business...............+2%
* CARRS GRP-FY. #'s in line.Sml d/g to FY16&17 on cautious o/look stmtn......-1%
* DIGNITY-Q3. Detah rate increases. FY to be ahead of consensus..............+2%
* GOALS SOCCER-WARNING.Speed of recovery not at level anticipated...........-10%
* HISCOX-Q3.Written premimus +12.9%.Strong perf in USA & Hiscox London.......+1%
* INMARSAT-Singapore Airlines to deploy its GX Aviation connectivity service.+2%
* INTERCONTI.-Not considering sale or merger(Shs+6.25% Friday on rumour).....-4%
* JUPITER: Wells Fargo may pursue takeover(S.Times)..........................+1%
* LONMIN-Annoucnes $407m rights issue(46 for 1) @ 1p.

(GS) Equity Radar : 06/11/2015

* Events we are watching
While we await further data from the tail end of 3Q earnings next week, we are also keenly focused on two GS events: 
1) the GS China Conference 2015 (Nov. 11/12) will include topical panels on the economic outlook and fiscal reform; and 
2) on a related note, the 4th annual GS Natural Resources conference takes place in London on Nov. 11/12, during which we will hear from 40 companies and a variety of industry experts on the key themes of the moment,
including some topical insights into the gas market with a panel discussion on Nov. 11.

* Gas glut gloom
This week, in Towards a new LNG equilibrium, our commodities team paints a negative picture for the gas price outlook, as new liquefaction projects in Australia and the US drive oversupply. Our utilities team expects this weakness in gas to drive a sharp decline in power prices across a number of European countries and, as a result, added SSE to our Conviction List (Sell) and downgraded both Enel & PPC to Sell (see Reflecting large gas price
downside). Accordingly, our oil & gas team reiterates its Sell ratings on Statoil & Gazprom, as weaker gas prices result in lower estimates for both.
With a weaker gas price leading to lower consumer energy prices for consumers, we see this as a further tailwind to the recovery in European household discretionary spending and, as such, positive for EasyJet and Europcar (both
CL Buy). Lending survey results for all loan types in Europe weakened in 3Q vs. the previous quarter, although they remain in positive territory, supporting moderate European recovery; residential & consumer lending remain the
relative bright spots. Finally, this week we saw strong KPIs from European Telco incumbents TDC, DT & Orange (all CL Buy).

(CS) Global Jewellery : A rock solid category

* Compelling growth prospects. We reiterate our positive stance on the
branded jewellery sector. We think branded jewellery will continue to enjoy
the fastest and least volatile growth in luxury, driven by a (i) +6.5% annual
increase in global wealth until 2020, (ii) rising consumer preference for
brands over independent jewellers, (iii) further opportunities in engagement
rings, and (iv) growing consumer sophistication in China and India.

* Barriers to entry moving higher. The economics of the jewellery market
remain unattractive for new entrants owing to the level of vertical integration.
Our analysis suggests that the well-established premium brands can charge
150% more than unbranded substitutes, up roughly 20ppt in the past year.
This allows branded jewellers to produce higher margins, compensate for
low asset turns and therefore produce superior ROIC.

* Commodity tailwinds for branded jewellers. Diamond prices have fallen
by c.15% YTD, as softer consumer demand for affordable gem-set jewellery
triggered destocking. Our mining analysts note that miners have already
started reducing supply to limit pricing pressure. The team expects a sales
volume recovery from mid-2016 and a modest price rebound from 2017 (see
Diamond Outlook, also published today). In addition to the declining gold
price, lower diamond prices should be beneficial for branded jewellers as
they typically do not cut prices. Due to low inventory turns, gross margin
should start seeing the benefits from 2016-17.

* We prefer Richemont (Outperform) to Tiffany (Neutral). We reiterate our
Outperform rating on Richemont but trim our TP to SFr91 (from SFr100)
following H1 results. We estimate jewellery now accounts for 59% of FY16
profit, which should be enough to mitigate prolonged weakness in the watch
market. We see better earnings visibility than most peers into next year and
the potential for positive surprises on input costs. For Tiffany, we believe
earnings power will be depressed in the near term due to cyclical headwinds,
unfavourable foreign currency exposure and operational challenges
associated with a shift from its high gross margin silver and gold businesses.

>>> Waht to look at today - 9th of November 2015

Asian indices are trading mixed after a much stronger non-farm payrolls report in the US on Friday lifted the Fed Funds futures market expectations of a Fed liftoff in December above 70%. USD was sharply higher across the board but particularly against JPY, helping Nikkei225 to a near 2% rally. USD/JPY hit a fresh 3-month highs near 123.50 in today's Asia session. Over the weekend, China saw soft trade data, but Shanghai Composite also rallied on reports of resumption of mainland IPOs. China October trade balance saw the highest surplus on record since 1995, but components remained disconcerting. Both exports and imports saw larger than expected declines: Exports fell for the 4th straight month at -6.9% v -3.8%e, while imports were down -18.8% v -15.0%e. Regionally, shipments to US fell -0.9%, EU by -2.9%, and Japan by 7.7%. govt researcher in China noted that GDP of 6.5% for 2016-2020 is a "bottom line" rather than a target amid reports that the official targets for next 5-year planning period will be released in March. Voting FOMC member Williams spoke over the weekend, stating that the decision not to raise rates in October was already a close call. Williams added that waiting too long on a hike introduces a range of risks, and talked up employment market after the strong NFP, noting US is very close to full employment. In the US, Weyerhaeuser and Plum Creek to merge, creating the world's premier timber, land and forest products company; Weyerhaeuser to repurchase $2.5B (16% of market cap) after transaction. Apache Said to have rejected unsolicited takeover approach of $18bil; working on defense with GS.

Nikkei +1.96% Hang Seng -0.08% Shanghai +2.07%

Eur$ 1.0766 JPY 123.33 CNY 6.3605 CHF 1.0041 GBP 1.5077 RUB$ 64.4846 WTI $44.73 (+0.99%)

S&P +0.02% Eurostoxx+0.2% Dax +0.10% SMI+0.05%


Macro :
- Elon Musk: In less than 20 years, owning a car will be like owning a horse http://bit.ly/1WFkvBN
- Swiss Support for EU Bilateral Agreements Drops to 43%: NZZ
- Lagarde Says Better for Fed to Be Certain on Data Before Moving
- Microsoft to Pledge EU83m Investments in France: Le Figaro


Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB Would Consider Offer for Power Grid Unit, CEO Tells Aargauer
- ABG/P SM : Abengoa Signs Agreement For Gonvarri to Become Main Shareholder
- ABI BB : SABMiller May Confirm Miller Coors Sale Wednesday.: S. Times
- AOI SS : Africa Oil attractive to larger companies, could attract JV partner in 12-18 months 
- AIR FP : Boeing Is Confident 2015 Plane Orders Will Match 755 Deliveries
- AF FP : Air France-Klm October Passengers Increased 2.8% to 8.1m
- ATL IM : Atlantia drops plans to sell 30% stake in AdR
- BBVA SM : BBVA Holds Most Catalan Govt Debt Among Spanish Banks: El Mundo
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Plans EU1.7b Bad Loan Sale by 4Q, Viola Says
- BNP FP : BNP Paribas to Charge for French Retail Bank Accounts: Parisien
- CON GY : Continental Raises FY Margin, Cash Flow Targets
- CSGN VX : Credit Suisse May Cut Bonuses by as Much as 60%, SaS Reports
- ERF FP : Eurofins Scientific Said to Consider Bidding for $1 Billion LGC
- ZIL2 GY : ElringKlinger 3Q Rev. In Line With Est.; Confirms FY Guidance
- FCA IM : Fiat’s Marchionne Says All Options on Table for GM Tie Up
- GSK LN : Glaxo Says Subcutaneous Benlysta Use Worked Better Than Placebo
- HGG LN : Jupiter and Henderson Fund management eyed for takeover by Wells Fargo 
- ITV LN : ITV rumoured to be eyed by Liberty Global - The Times
- IHG LN : InterContinental Hotels Says It Isn’t Considering Sale, Merger
- JUP LN : Jupiter and Henderson Fund management eyed for takeover by Wells Fargo 
- NOK1V FH : Nokia would buy Comptel once Alcatel-Lucent deal is completed - Arvopaperi
- PFV GY : Busch would not rule out controlling majority in Pfeiffer Vacuum
- PUM GY : Puma dampens speculation of Kering sale plans 
- RNO FP : Renault-Nissan Refuse French Government Push for Merger: Nikkei
- RNO FP : France Could Reduce Its Stake in Renault, PM Valls Says
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce resists pressure to give board seat to activist ValueAct 
- RDSA NA : Shell Scrapped Project Over Pipeline Uncertainty: Globe & Mail
- SAN FP : Sanofi CEO Sees No Production Site Closings in France: Le Figaro
- SAN FP : Sanofi Says ‘Significant Improvement’ in Sarilumab Patients
- SPM IM : Saipem Chrmn Says FSI Role Makes Finances Stronger: Corriere
- SREN VX : Bradesco May Sell High-Risk Insurance Unit to Swiss Re: Globo
- SRCG SW : Sunrise Communications 3Q Rev. Declines; Keeps Outlook Unchanged
- JDW LN : Wetherspoon mandates CBRE to sell 34 more pubs - The Times
- VIV FP : Vivendi Doesn’t Own Telecom Italia Savings Shares: Spokesman
- VIV FP : Vivendi May Call for Expanded Board at Telecom Italia: Corriere
- VOW3 GY : VW to Pay for Any Swiss Road Tax Shortfall Over Emissions: NZZaS
- VOW3 GY : VW Says Employees Flagged ‘Irregularities’ in Internal Probes
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen May Offer Cash to Diesel Customers, NYT Says
- VOW3 GY : Volkswagen Plans New U.S. Sales Initiative, WSJ Says
- YPSN SW : Strong Franc to Cut Ypsomed FY Oper. Profit by CHF4.5M: SoZ

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 9th of November 2015

>>> Up
*COFACE RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT JPMORGAN

>>> Down
*ATLAS COPCO CUT TO UNDERPERFORM VS SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC
*CENTRICA CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*DSM CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT LIBERUM {NSN NXJCNI6S972C<Go>}
*FERROVIAL CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT RBC
*FRESENIUS MEDICAL CARE CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*RHEINMETALL CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*SAMPO OYJ CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*SANOFI CUT TO MARKET PERFORM VS OUTPERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*SPIRENT COMMUNICATIONS CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT CITI
*STANCHART CUT TO HOLD AT MAYBANK KIM ENG
*SWISS RE CUT TO NEUTRAL VS BUY AT GOLDMAN {NSN NXJCL86K50XZ<Go>}
*TALKTALK CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*TELEFONICA DEUTSCHLAND CUT TO EQUALWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*BERKELEY ENERGY RATED NEW BUY AT GMP SECURITIES, PT 70P
*OSRAM LICHT RESUMED HOLD AT HSBC, PT EU56; WAS RESTRICTED
*ROS AGRO RATED NEW OVERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN, PT $14.5

>>> Call

WSJ : Jet Deals Fall at Dubai Air Show

Jet Deals Fall at Dubai Air Show

Concern about slowing aircraft sales has risen in recent months

DUBAI—The Dubai Air Show kicked off Sunday without the usual flurry of deals at a time aerospace investors have grown nervous that an extended period of bumper plane sales may be coming to an end.

Boeing Co. and Airbus Group SE have enjoyed a record run of order bookings for their single-aisle and widebody jets. Order intake this year has slowed, though, with Boeing still more than 200 deals short of its full-year target.

Two years ago, the first day of the event saw $162 billion in jetliner orders as Boeing secured deals for its new 777X long-range twin-widebody and Emirates Airline placed a blockbuster order for 50 Airbus A380 superjumbos. No deals were announced on the opening day of this year’s gathering, a rarity for major gatherings of the aerospace industry.

Concerns about the resilience of aircraft sales increased last month when Delta Air Lines Inc. Chief Executive Richard Anderson warned of an oversupply of jets. “We’re seeing a huge bubble in excess widebody airplanes around the world,” he told analysts.

Prices for used Boeing 777-200 long-haul planes that are about a decade old are as low as $10 million, and prices to rent older Airbus A330 widebodies also remain depressed.

“Prices are going to get lower,” Mr. Anderson said.

Plane makers dispute the gloomy outlook. Order cancellations are running at a low level, said Fabrice Brégier, who heads Airbus’s planemaking unit, adding that the company has already secured 900 new plane contracts this year, outpacing planned deliveries for 2015.

“Not only is there no bubble, but the market requires more aircraft,” Mr. Brégier said in an interview.

He shrugged off the lack of orders in Dubai, saying: “All the Middle East carriers ordered their widebody fleets two years ago.”

It is a view echoed by rival Boeing. “We see a robust market out there,” said John Wojick, Boeing Commercial Airplanes sales chief. Still, he said, Boeing had “work to do” to meet its 2015 objectives.

Any recent dampening of order bookings for the company’s 787 Dreamliner is because production is sold out through 2019, he said, not because of lack of demand.

Analysts also worry that the prolonged slump in oil prices could weigh on demand for new planes as airlines opt to keep older, less efficient models in service. British Airways parent International Consolidated Airlines Group last week said it may keep some of its 747 jumbo jets flying longer.

Mr. Wojick said low crude prices were a double-edged sword. While it could drive airlines to operate older planes for longer, it also made airlines financially more resilient and able to invest in new aircraft.

Mr. Brégier credited low oil prices with helping Airbus to sell some of its older-design aircraft, which are also more readily available.

The two companies share a bullish long-term outlook. Boeing sees the need for more than 8,800 new widebody planes over the next 20 years. Airbus puts the figure at 9,700 long-range aircraft deliveries over that period.

Nevertheless, both plane makers have had to curtail output on some models.

Boeing has signaled it may have to trim production of the 777 to seven planes a month, down from the 8.3 aircraft it currently builds. A decision on whether to scale back could come next year as the world’s largest plane maker works on introducing a new version of the aircraft model in 2020.

Airbus is cutting back on building A330 widebodies.

Emirates Airline, the world’s largest by international traffic, isn't currently buying planes. The carrier is looking to place a big order for Airbus or Boeing widebodies, but is still evaluating the models, the airline’s president Tim Clark said at the show.

An Emirates order for more A380 superjumbos also hasn't materialized because Airbus hasn't committed to building the upgraded variant the carrier wants. Mr. Clark has long championed the upgrade, dubbed the A380neo, and is urging Airbus to “get on with it.” Emirates could buy as many as 200 A380neo jetliners, if Airbus builds them.

Mr. Brégier said the Toulouse-based company was continuing to study the upgrade, but was in no rush to launch a development program that would require additional investment. The priority, he said, is building the current version of the A380, which has a list price of $428 million, more cheaply and garnering more deals.

Mr. Brégier signaled a new operator could place an order for A380 planes later this year.

WSJ : Volkswagen Seeks to Rebuild Trust With U.S. Initiative



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: Nov 9 2015 07:44:45
Subject: WSJ : Takeover Loans Have Few Takers on Wall Street
Volkswagen Seeks to Rebuild Trust With U.S. Initiative

German auto maker looks to appeal to customers, dealers following emissions scandal

BERLIN—Volkswagen AG, struggling to get out in front of its emissions-cheating scandal, is trying to overcome missteps in its crisis-fighting strategy and plans to announce a new sales initiative in the U.S. this week as a small step to start winning back the trust of its disappointed customers and dealers.

The move comes nearly two months into a crisis that has battered faith in the Volkswagen brand, sparked a sweeping restructuring of management at the Wolfsburg, Germany-based company, and left the car maker’s leadership on the defensive, reacting to a string of disclosures and events.

Volkswagen is now working to get back in control of its message. The company’s field representatives, who are the first line of contact with U.S. dealers, swarmed out over the past few days and held a series of briefings about a plan to show U.S. customers some goodwill.

A U.S. car dealer who was briefed by Volkswagen last Wednesday said the company plans as early as Monday to announce that it will issue two debit cards to owners of diesel-powered cars affected by the emissions crisis. One card will be a simple cash gift that VW customers will be able to use at their discretion. The second debit card would be linked to purchases at a VW dealership.

A Volkswagen spokesman confirmed that a sales initiative is planned, but declined to provide any details. He said the company informed U.S. dealers about the plan last week and that the company’s U.S. unit would “publish the details about this in the coming week.”

The new sales initiative is an example of the small steps that Michael Horn, chief executive of Volkswagen of America Inc., has promised in the company’s efforts to rebuild consumers’ faith in Europe’s largest auto maker.

Some of those steps have been spelled out in letters, seen by The Wall Street Journal, that Mr. Horn and other VW of America executives have sent to U.S. dealers since the emissions-cheating details became public in September.

“This is a good first step that breaks the silence,” said Steve Kalafer, who co-owns Flemington Car & Truck Country, a New Jersey-based dealership that operates 18 franchises at eight locations, that was one of the dealerships briefed last week.
“The question is whether customers will be required to release VW of liability,” Mr. Kalafer said. “It’s a nice first step, if it’s a no-strings-attached goodwill gift from the manufacturer.”

U.S. environmental authorities disclosed the emissions cheating on Sept. 18, saying that Volkswagen installed software on nearly 500,000 diesel-powered cars in the U.S. that enabled the cars to produce fewer nitrogen-oxide emissions in lab tests than during normal driving conditions.

Volkswagen later admitted that the software was installed on up to 11 million vehicles using the four-cylinder EA 189 engine at its VW, Audi, Skoda and SEAT brands.

In November, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency disclosed that the software also affected about 10,000 larger vehicles with six-cylinder engines including those used in upscale sport-utility vehicles built by VW, Audi and Porsche.

VW at first denied the charge, appearing to start a fight with the EPA, but two days later the company did an about-face, acknowledging the EPA’s findings and vowing to work together closely with U.S. officials to resolve the crisis.

Last week, Volkswagen acknowledged that its emissions cheating wasn’t limited to nitrogen-oxide emissions of diesel engines, but that the company also understated greenhouse-gas emissions and fuel consumption of up to 800,000 cars, mostly in Europe, including nearly 100,000 gasoline-powered vehicles.

Volkswagen has been under intense pressure in the U.S. and Europe to provide some form of compensation for customers who have seen the values of their cars fall sharply in the wake of the company’s scandal.

Kelly Blue Book, a research group that tracks car values, said resale values of Volkswagen models affected by the scandal have fallen 16% on average since their pre-crisis levels. Dealers say the collapse of residual values is as much as 30% on some models.

Over the past couple of weeks, Volkswagen has begun to step up efforts to salvage its reputation and prevent an erosion of its business, especially in the U.S. where public anger over the emissions-cheating is more pronounced than in Europe.

Last week, Volkswagen said it would cover any additional taxes owed by customers if adjusting CO2 emissions and fuel consumption result in higher tax bills.

Soon after the scandal became public, Volkswagen began heavily discounting car sales in the U.S. and assuring dealers of financial support.

In a letter to dealers on Sept. 21, which was seen by the Journal, Mr. Horn, VW’s U.S. chief, assured dealers of cash payouts of $300 to $600 for each car sold and guaranteed dealers’ bonuses for the third and fourth quarters of 2015.

In the wake of an order to stop selling affected cars, Volkswagen offered to pay dealers $70 per month for each new car on their lot affected by the stop-sale order, and $50 for certified pre-owned vehicles.

“In light of recent events, we are committed to taking actions which will stabilize your profitability in the near-term,” Mr. Horn said in the letter.

On Oct. 15, Volkswagen took another step, announcing in a letter to U.S. dealers that they could offer a $2,000 bonus for the purchase or lease of a new gasoline, hybrid or electric vehicle to customers who had ordered a TDI diesel that couldn’t be delivered because of the sales stop.

Mark McNabb, VW of America’s chief operating officer, said in the letter that he hoped this would give U.S. dealers the “necessary tools to retain these individuals within the Volkswagen brand.”

WSJ : Takeover Loans Have Few Takers on Wall Street

Volkswagen Seeks to Rebuild Trust With U.S. Initiative

German auto maker looks to appeal to customers, dealers following emissions scandal

BERLIN—Volkswagen AG, struggling to get out in front of its emissions-cheating scandal, is trying to overcome missteps in its crisis-fighting strategy and plans to announce a new sales initiative in the U.S. this week as a small step to start winning back the trust of its disappointed customers and dealers.

The move comes nearly two months into a crisis that has battered faith in the Volkswagen brand, sparked a sweeping restructuring of management at the Wolfsburg, Germany-based company, and left the car maker’s leadership on the defensive, reacting to a string of disclosures and events.

Volkswagen is now working to get back in control of its message. The company’s field representatives, who are the first line of contact with U.S. dealers, swarmed out over the past few days and held a series of briefings about a plan to show U.S. customers some goodwill.

A U.S. car dealer who was briefed by Volkswagen last Wednesday said the company plans as early as Monday to announce that it will issue two debit cards to owners of diesel-powered cars affected by the emissions crisis. One card will be a simple cash gift that VW customers will be able to use at their discretion. The second debit card would be linked to purchases at a VW dealership.

A Volkswagen spokesman confirmed that a sales initiative is planned, but declined to provide any details. He said the company informed U.S. dealers about the plan last week and that the company’s U.S. unit would “publish the details about this in the coming week.”

The new sales initiative is an example of the small steps that Michael Horn, chief executive of Volkswagen of America Inc., has promised in the company’s efforts to rebuild consumers’ faith in Europe’s largest auto maker.

Some of those steps have been spelled out in letters, seen by The Wall Street Journal, that Mr. Horn and other VW of America executives have sent to U.S. dealers since the emissions-cheating details became public in September.

“This is a good first step that breaks the silence,” said Steve Kalafer, who co-owns Flemington Car & Truck Country, a New Jersey-based dealership that operates 18 franchises at eight locations, that was one of the dealerships briefed last week.
“The question is whether customers will be required to release VW of liability,” Mr. Kalafer said. “It’s a nice first step, if it’s a no-strings-attached goodwill gift from the manufacturer.”

U.S. environmental authorities disclosed the emissions cheating on Sept. 18, saying that Volkswagen installed software on nearly 500,000 diesel-powered cars in the U.S. that enabled the cars to produce fewer nitrogen-oxide emissions in lab tests than during normal driving conditions.

Volkswagen later admitted that the software was installed on up to 11 million vehicles using the four-cylinder EA 189 engine at its VW, Audi, Skoda and SEAT brands.

In November, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency disclosed that the software also affected about 10,000 larger vehicles with six-cylinder engines including those used in upscale sport-utility vehicles built by VW, Audi and Porsche.

VW at first denied the charge, appearing to start a fight with the EPA, but two days later the company did an about-face, acknowledging the EPA’s findings and vowing to work together closely with U.S. officials to resolve the crisis.

Last week, Volkswagen acknowledged that its emissions cheating wasn’t limited to nitrogen-oxide emissions of diesel engines, but that the company also understated greenhouse-gas emissions and fuel consumption of up to 800,000 cars, mostly in Europe, including nearly 100,000 gasoline-powered vehicles.

Volkswagen has been under intense pressure in the U.S. and Europe to provide some form of compensation for customers who have seen the values of their cars fall sharply in the wake of the company’s scandal.

Kelly Blue Book, a research group that tracks car values, said resale values of Volkswagen models affected by the scandal have fallen 16% on average since their pre-crisis levels. Dealers say the collapse of residual values is as much as 30% on some models.

Over the past couple of weeks, Volkswagen has begun to step up efforts to salvage its reputation and prevent an erosion of its business, especially in the U.S. where public anger over the emissions-cheating is more pronounced than in Europe.

Last week, Volkswagen said it would cover any additional taxes owed by customers if adjusting CO2 emissions and fuel consumption result in higher tax bills.

Soon after the scandal became public, Volkswagen began heavily discounting car sales in the U.S. and assuring dealers of financial support.

In a letter to dealers on Sept. 21, which was seen by the Journal, Mr. Horn, VW’s U.S. chief, assured dealers of cash payouts of $300 to $600 for each car sold and guaranteed dealers’ bonuses for the third and fourth quarters of 2015.

In the wake of an order to stop selling affected cars, Volkswagen offered to pay dealers $70 per month for each new car on their lot affected by the stop-sale order, and $50 for certified pre-owned vehicles.

“In light of recent events, we are committed to taking actions which will stabilize your profitability in the near-term,” Mr. Horn said in the letter.

On Oct. 15, Volkswagen took another step, announcing in a letter to U.S. dealers that they could offer a $2,000 bonus for the purchase or lease of a new gasoline, hybrid or electric vehicle to customers who had ordered a TDI diesel that couldn’t be delivered because of the sales stop.

Mark McNabb, VW of America’s chief operating officer, said in the letter that he hoped this would give U.S. dealers the “necessary tools to retain these individuals within the Volkswagen brand.”