>>> What to look at today - 25th of October 2016

Dow +0.43% S&P +0.47% Nasdaq +1% Russell +0.69%
US Markeg Closed higher as M&A activity picked up (AT&T/TWX, COL/BEAV,...), A downturn in crude oil futures contributed to the mid-morning pullback as investors assessed the state of OPEC's proposed supply freeze agreement. Iraq made headlines this morning after indicating that it will seek an exemption from the previously discussed agreement. However, selling remained in check after Iran stated that it would encourage other members to join the output freeze. Crude oil briefly broke below $50.00/bbl before settling at $50.52/bbl (-0.7%; -$0.33). Eight sectors ended in the green with technology (+1.2%), consumer staples (+0.7%), and consumer discretionary (+0.7%) outperforming. On the other hand, telecom services (-0.8%) and energy (-0.2%) finished at the bottom of the board. AMZN +2.3% on GS upgrade of PT $1,050 from $920. Volume were below average 853mil as 779mil shares. US After Hours CR +9%, RMBS +7%, ALSN +2.5% following earnings/guidance, SAEX +37% on tax credit certificate news, CWEI +8% on asset sale/COO news... SONC -11% and V -1% following earnings/guidance. China NDRC spokesperson sees economy ahead of schedule in meeting 2016-end overcapacity cuts in the steel sector, achieving the milestones in November. China Yuan fix set at record low for 3rd straight session as continued strength in US economic data solidifies the case for a FOMC rate hike in Dec. PBoC Dep Gov Yi responds that there is no basis for a persistent depreciation in CNY. Japan press speculates the BOJ will hold off on further easing at its upcoming policy meeting on Nov 1st despite expected downward revision in CPI projections; Report sees BOJ once again pushing back its forecast for reaching 2% inflation to FY18 from FY17 while still maintaining assessment that the trend in inflation is improving.

Nikkei +0.76% Hang Seng -0.03% CSI -0.11% Shanghai +0.0%

Eur$ 1.0885 CNH 6.7831 CNY 6.7750 JPY 104.39 GBP 1.2226 CHF 0.9939 RUB$ 62.0931 WTI$ 50.57 +0.10%

S&P +0.17% EuroStoxx +0.13% Dax +0.17% FTSE +0.27% SMI +0.15%

Macro :
- New York’s Latest Must-Have Luxury Apartment Craze Is Driveways
- Fed Hike Would Provide Chance for BOJ to Weaken Yen: Takenaka

Keep an eye on :
- ABN NA : Hedge Fund Parvus Reports Smaller ABN Amro Stake of 2.87%
- ABN NA : Julius Baer, DBS Said to Mull Buying ABN Amro Asia Private Bank
- AI FP : Air Liquide 3Q Rev. Slightly Misses Ests.; Confirms 2016 Outlook
- AIXA GY : Germany Indicated Security Concerns in Aixtron Bid: Grand Chip
- ARM LN : ARM CEO Warns Hard Brexit May Seriously Damage Business: FT
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Board Approves Business Plan: Ansa
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi Plans Capital Increase EU5b Excluding Option Rights, Monte Paschi Targets Over EU1.1b Net for 2019, ROTE Above 11%
- BMPS IM : Paschi Got Offer From ICBPI for Merchant Acquiring for EU520m
- BUR FP : Burelle 3Q Economic Rev. Climbs 22%
- 1COV GY : Covestro 3Q Adj. Ebitda Rises 22%, Beats Estimate; Outlook Up
- DSY FP : Dassault Systemes 3Q Non-IFRS Sales, EPS beat; Raises EPS Target
- DIA SM : Dia 3Q Adj. Ebitda In Line, Sees Stable 2016 Adj. Ebitda Margin
- GAM SM : Gamesa-Siemens Will Be World-Leader, Martin Tells Expansion
- GBT FP : Guerbet 9m Rev EU568.4m, in Line With Targets
- ILMN US : Illumina, LabCorp Say German Court Issued Preliminary Injunction
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Plane Leasing Rates Won’t Cover Air Berlin Costs: HB
- LUX IM : Luxottica 3Q Adj. Net Sales In Line With Ests., Confirms Outlook
- NEX LN : National Express Says Continues to Deliver Strong Growth
- NHY NO : Norsk Hydro Underlying Ebit Beats; Maintains Global Demand View
- NOVN VX : Novartis 3Q Core EPS Beats, Net Sales in Line; Keeps FY Outlook ,Novartis 3Q Sales of Entresto, Cosentyx Slightly Below Estimates
- NOVN VX : Novartis CEO Says There’s Nothing to Disclose on Roche Stake
- ORA FP : Orange 3Q Revenue, Ebitda In Line With Ests.; Keeps Outlook
- RAND NA : Randstad Reports Resilient Trends in 3Q; Revenue Beats Estimate
- SAF FP : Safran 3Q Sales EU3.99b; 2016 Income Forecast Confirmed
- SAF FP : Safran CEO Sees ‘No Big Change for Europe’ on Rockwell-B/E Deal
- SESL FP : Store Electronic 3Q Revenue Climbs 38%; Repeats FY Outlook
- SHP LN : Shire Loses Kyle Bass Challenge to Patent Claims on Gattex
- SYNN VX : Syngenta: ChemChina Regulatory Process Extending Into 1Q 2017
- SYNN VX : Syngenta Sees Improved LatAm Performance in 4Q, Confirms Goals
- HO FP : France Wants Alstom to Buy Thales Signalling Unit: BFMTV
- TODS IM : Tod’s 3Q Sales in Line, Says Confident on Performance
- TIE1V FH : Tieto 3Q Sales, Ebit Miss Estimates, Keeps FY Outlook
- WTB LN : Whitbread 1H Adj. Pretax Beats Estimates

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of October 2016

>>> Up
*Assa Abloy Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT SK190
*Cobham Raised to Neutral at Exane BNP Paribas, PT 130p
*Segro Raised to Overweight at Barclays, PT 520p

>>> Down
*BURBERRY CUT TO NEUTRAL AT MAINFIRST
*Ericsson Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan, PT $5.40
*Ericsson Cut to Add at AlphaValue, PT SK49.80
*Just Eat Cut to Neutral at Macquarie, PT 560p
*Pearson Cut to Underperform at BofAML, PT 680p
*Premier Foods Cut to Hold at Jefferies, PT 50p
*Shawbrook Group Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
*VALEO CUT TO HOLD AT HSBC

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation*
Elia Rated New Buy at Citi, PT EU56

>>> Call
>> Stock
*UBS ADDED TO EUROPEAN RECOMMENDED PORTFOLIO AT BARCLAYS

>>> After Hours Summary: CR +9%, RMBS +7%, ALSN +2.5% followin

After Hours Summary: CR +9%, RMBS +7%, ALSN +2.5% following earnings/guidance, SAEX +37% on tax credit certificate news, CWEI +8% on asset sale/COO news... SONC -11% and V -1% following earnings/guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CR +8.6%, RMBS +7.1%, LFUS +6.7%, CLGX +4.3% (also raises 2016 buyback target; expands full-year 2017 cost reduction program), CMRE +4%, BLKB +3.5% (reaffirms FY16 EPS, sales; raises OCF guidance; adopts stock compensation accounting standard early), PRK +2.7% (light volume), ALSN +2.5%, SWFT +2.2%, FRGI +1.5% (closes 10 Pollo Tropical Restaurants; will rebrand up to three restaurants as Taco Cabana Restaurants; Q3 comparable restaurant sales at Pollo Tropical decreased 1.0%, comparable restaurant sales at Taco Cabana decreased 4.1%), VASC +1.3%, WASH +1.1% (ticking higher), ZION +1.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: SAEX +37% (received approx $24.4 mln of tax credit certificates from the state of Alaska's Department of Revenue; says received sooner than expected), GBT +13% (agrees w/ the FDA on the design of its pivotal trial for GBT440 in adults and adolescents with sickle cell disease; expected to begin screening patients by December; decides to discontinue its research and development activities related to GBT18713; Chief Medical Officer retires), WINT +10.2% (releases data from lung deposition study in non-human primates demonstrating uniform distribution of aerosolized KL4 surfactant in all regions of the lung), CWEI +8.1% (Clayton Williams announces agreement to sell Giddings area assets for $400 million; names Patrick Cooke as COO), IMMU +2.3% (light volume; engages Greenhill & Co to serve as a strategic advisor primarily to assist in its ongoing efforts to out-license sacituzumab govitecan), MTL +1.9% (following Monday's 35% move higher)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: OPGN -11.9%, SONC -10.8%, WNC -6.4%, PRA -5% (ticking lower; sees Q3 EPS below estimates), NMFC -3.8% (guides Q3 in-line; commences 5 mln common stock offering), EFII -3.7%, BPL -3.7% (also announced plans to acquire 50% interest in VTTI B.V.'s global marine terminal business for $1.15 bln; commences public offering of 7.5 mln limited partnership units representing limited partner interests), GHL -3.4%, KN -2.8% (ticking lower), CDNS -0.9%, V -0.7%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: PLG -10.4% (will raise $40 mln through bought deal financing of 22,230,000 common shares at $1.80/share), HHS -2.6% (ticking lower; Guess? will replace Harte-Hanks Inc. in the S&P SmallCap 600), SGY -2.5% (S&P downgraded Stone Energy to 'CC' on proposed Chapter 11 restructuring; Outlook Negative), CRZO -1% (Carrizo Oil & Gas to acquire Eagle Ford Shale properties from Sanchez Energy for $181 mln in cash and provides Q3 production guidance; commences underwritten public offering of 5 mln shares of its common stock), BANC -0.2% (slightly lower after seeing late spike when PL Capital Advisors discloses 6.7% active stake)

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: South Korea GDP tops consensus; Yuan fix set at new multi-year lows

***US Session Highlights***
- (US) OCT PRELIMINARY MARKIT MANUFACTURING PMI: 53.2 V 51.5E (along with new orders highest since Oct 2015)
- (UK) PM May: there will be a series of parliamentary debates on Brexit, including on high level negotiating principles
- (CA) Bank of Canada and Canada govt renew 2% inflation target regime for 5 more years through 2021
- (US) Fed's Bullard (FOMC voter, Dovish): sees single rate increase as all that is necessary for the time being; jobless rate is close to the Fed's long-term target level
- (US) Fed's Evans (dove, non-voter): sees less headroom to raise rates; overshooting inflation target might be appropriate - comments in Chicago

***US markets on close: Dow +0.4%, S&P500 +0.5%, Nasdaq +1.0%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Technology
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Healthcare
- Biggest gainers: QRVO +4.7%, NVDA +4.7%, SYMC +3.4%, ADS +3.3%, GM +3.0%
- Biggest losers: COL -6.2%, CHK -4.8%, KMB -4.8%, DVA -4.6%, RIG -3.8%
- At the close: VIX 13.20 (-0.2pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 0.84% (+2bp), 10-yr 1.77% (+2bp), 30-yr 2.53% (+3bp)

***US movers afterhours***
- GBT: Announces pivotal study for GBT440 in Sickle Cell Disease with Primary Hemoglobin endpoint; top-line data anticipated in 1H19; +12.7% afterhours
- CWEI: To sell Giddings Area assets for $400M; Names Patrick Cooke new COO; +8.0% afterhours
- RMBS: Reports Q3 $0.16 v $0.15e, R$89.9M v $86.5Me; +6.7% afterhours
- BLKB: Raises FY16 operating cash flow guidance $147-157M (prior $135-145M); +3.5% afterhours
- CLGX: Reports Q3 $0.73 v $0.65e, R$524M v $504Me; Updates 2017 share repurchase program; increases cost reduction program; +2.8% afterhours
- SWFT: Reports Q3 $0.34 v $0.32e, R$1.01B v $1.04Be; +2.2% afterhours
- V: Reports Q4 $0.78 v $0.73e, R$4.26B v $4.24Be; -1.1% afterhour
- EFII: Reports Q3 $0.58 (ex-items) v $0.58e, R$245.6M v $248Me; Guides Q4 $0.71-0.76 v $0.76e, gross margin approx 50-51% - earnings slides; -3.7% afterhours
- PRA: Reports prelim Q3 op earnings $0.43-0.47 v $0.60e, gross premiums written $230M; -5.0% afterhours
- SONC: Reports Q4 $0.45 adj v $0.44e, R$162.1M v $168Me; -5.0% afterhours

***Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press***
- China NDRC spokesperson sees economy ahead of schedule in meeting 2016-end overcapacity cuts in the steel sector, achieving the milestones in November. Separately, Dalian spot iron ore prices spike by over 4%, helping AUD outperform other major currencies.
- China Yuan fix set at record low for 3rd straight session as continued strength in US economic data solidifies the case for a FOMC rate hike in Dec. PBoC Dep Gov Yi responds that there is no basis for a persistent depreciation in CNY.
- Japan press speculates the BOJ will hold off on further easing at its upcoming policy meeting on Nov 1st despite expected downward revision in CPI projections; Report sees BOJ once again pushing back its forecast for reaching 2% inflation to FY18 from FY17 while still maintaining assessment that the trend in inflation is improving.
- South Korea Q3 prelim GDP tops q/q and y/y consensus by a decimal, with Construction investment rising by +3.9% q/q and private consumption up just 0.5%. BOK notes Q3 would have been much better if Samsung Electronics did not experience Galaxy Note 7 manufacturing scandal and Hyundai Motors workers did not wage a strike. BOK still sees FY16 GDP target achievable if Q4 growth comes in positive.

***Asia Key economic data:***
- (CN) China urban registered jobless rate declines to 4.0% by end of Sept v 4.5% annual target
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA Q3 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.7% V 2.6%E
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 113.6 v 117.8 prior

***Asian Equity Markets (23:30ET)***
- Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng -0.2%, Shanghai Composite -0.1%, ASX200 +0.6%, Kospi -0.7%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Futures/Fixed Income (23:30ET):***
- EUR 1.0868-1.0882; JPY 104.15-104.50; AUD 0.7590-0.7625; NZD 0.7110-0.7150
- Dec Gold +0.1% at 1,265/oz; Dec Crude Oil -0.1% at $50.49/brl; Copper +0.9% at $2.11/lb
- Equity Futures: S&P e-mini +0.1%, Dax +0.2%, FTSE100 +0.1%
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.7744 V 6.7690 PRIOR; lowest CNY setting since 2010
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY115B in 7-day reverse repos, CNY85B in 14-day reverse repos, and CNY35B in 28-day reverse repos
- JGB: (JP) Japan's MoF sells ¥1.0T in 0.5% (0.5% prior) 20-year JGBs; Avg yield: 0.364% v 0.437% prior; bid-to-cover: 3.49x v 3.33x prior

***Asia movers***
- Consumer discretionary: Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK -1.0% (profit warning); SA SA International Holdings 178.HK +7.5% (profit warning); Bega Chees BGA.AU -13.9% (guidance); Shimano Inc 7309.JP +3.7% (Credit Suisse raised to outperform)
- Financials: Dexus Property Group DXS.AU +1.6% (affirms guidance); ClearView Wealth CVW.AU +8.3% (Sony Life to acquire stake); Mirvac Group MGR.AU +1.0% (affirms guidance)
- Industrials: Automotive Holdings AHG.AU +4.2% (confirms to restructuring certain business); GUD Holdings GUD.AU +1.5% (guidance); Nidec Corp 6594.JP +4.9% (H1 result); Mazda Motor Corp 7261.JP +3.1% (may miss profit targets)
- Technology: Hynix Semiconductor 000660.KR +2.4% (Q3 result); NavInfo Co 002405.CN +4.3% (to acquire MediaTek unit); Aconex ACX.AU +9.8% (guidance)
- Materials: Fortescue +5.0% (AGM comments, iron ore prices); Saracen Mineral Holdings SAR.AU -2.1% (Q1 result)
- Healthcare: Greencross GXL.AU +5.1% (on track to hit FY17 network targets); Sirtex Medical SRX.AU +2.2% (guidance)

>>> US Close Dow +0.43% S&P +0.47% Nasdaq +1% Russell +0.69%

Closing Market Summary: M&A Deals and Earnings Boost Stocks

The major averages began the week on an upbeat note as an upswing in M&A activity and sector leadership from the top-weighted technology (+1.1%) space bolstered the broader market. The Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) finished ahead of both the S&P 500 (+0.5%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%). 

A recent wave of M&A chatter materialized this weekend when several high-profile deals were announced after Friday's close. AT&T (T 36.86, -0.63, -1.7%) and Time Warner (TWX 86.78, -2.70, -3.0%) made headlines on Saturday after the telecom giant agreed to pay $107.50 per share for Time Warner. The deal is valued at $85.4 billion and marks a premium of 20.1% over Friday's closing price. Meanwhile, Rockwell Collins (COL 79.21, -5.25, -6.2%) agreed to acquire BE Aerospace (BEAV 58.89, +8.28, +16.4%) for $62.00 per share, which will amount to $8.3 billion in total consideration. The size and scope of the deals stoked risk appetite as investors looked for further consolidation.

The benchmark index notched a high at the start of the session and inched off that level throughout the morning. 

A downturn in crude oil futures contributed to the mid-morning pullback as investors assessed the state of OPEC's proposed supply freeze agreement. Iraq made headlines this morning after indicating that it will seek an exemption from the previously discussed agreement. However, selling remained in check after Iran stated that it would encourage other members to join the output freeze. Crude oil briefly broke below $50.00/bbl before settling at $50.52/bbl (-0.7%; -$0.33).

The Treasury complex pulled back today as an upswing in equities and above-consensus economic data weighed on the group. Bond prices extended their decline after U.S. Manufacturing PMI for October came in ahead of estimates. The yield on the 2-yr note finished higher by two basis point (0.84%) while the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note rose three basis points to 1.76%. The spread between the 2-yr and 10-yr yields expanded to 92 basis points from September's 83 basis point differential. 

The benchmark index finished in the upper end of today's trading range, locking in the bulk of today's gain. 

Eight sectors ended in the green with technology (+1.2%), consumer staples (+0.7%), and consumer discretionary (+0.7%) outperforming. On the other hand, telecom services (-0.8%) and energy (-0.2%) finished at the bottom of the board.

The heavyweight technology space (+1.2%) outperformed as participants continued to assess influential quarterly reports from the sector and looked ahead to a busy week on the earnings calendar. Dow component Microsoft (MSFT 61.00, +1.34) jumped 2.3%, extending its post-earnings gain to 6.6%. The name beat analysts' estimates last Thursday. Meanwhile, Alphabet (GOOG 813.11, +13.74) gained 1.7% ahead of releasing its quarterly results Thursday evening. 

In the consumer discretionary sector (+0.7%) Amazon (AMZN 837.71, +18.72) gained 2.3% after Goldman Sachs raised its price target on the stock to $1050 from $920. The name is also scheduled to release its quarterly report this Thursday. Conversely, media company underperformed as investors looked ahead to potential regulatory hurdles that AT&T and Time Warner will face in their merger attempt.

Aerospace and defense names outperformed in the industrial sector (+0.3%) as the sub-group drafted higher alongside BE Aerospace (BEAV 58.89, +8.28). Dow component Boeing (BA 137.45, +1.82) finished ahead of the price-weighted average. Conversely, rail names underperformed as Union Pacific (UNP 89.88, -0.49) fell 0.5%. 

Today's trading volume was below the average of 853 million as 779 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

There was no economic data of note released today.

Tomorrow's economic data will include the 9:00 ET release of the Case-Shiller 20-city Index for August (consensus 5.1%) and the FHFA Housing Price Index for August. Separately, Consumer Confidence for October (consensus 100.8) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

  • Russell 2000: +8.0% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +6.0% YTD
  • S&P 500: +5.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones: +4.6% YTD

Reuters - Italy's Monte dei Paschi postpones capital plan to Tuesday -sources

Italy's Monte dei Paschi postpones capital plan to Tuesday -sources

MILAN, Oct 24 (Reuters) - Italy's Monte dei Paschi di Siena has postponed the release of a statement on a capital-boosting strategic plan and third-quarter results to Tuesday, sources close to the matter said, without giving a reason for the delay.
A board meeting which started at 0800 GMT on Monday to give the plan the go-ahead, was still underway 10 hours later.
The board approved the turnaround plan, meant to help the bank raise 5 billion euros ($5.44 billion) from investors, earlier in the day, one board member said, adding there was unanimous backing from all board directors.
"It's a very good plan, we are confident," he said as he left the meeting, while it was still going. He added a shareholder meeting to approve the capital measures would be held by the end of November.
A union representative said separately that the new plan envisages 1,600 layoffs, on top of another 1,400 previously announced by the lender, and would also include 300 new hires.
A meeting between chief executive Marco Morelli and union representatives which had been due to take place on Monday evening was also delayed, a labor official said.
Morelli, the former Italy head of Bank of America Merrill Lynch, took over as CEO of the country's third-largest bank in mid-September, charged with winning investor support for the fundraising plan.
Drawn up with the help of adviser JPMorgan, the plan also envisages the sale of 28 billion euros in bad loans to keep the bank afloat after it emerged as the weakest lender in Europe in the latest round of industry stress tests over the summer.
Shares in the troubled Tuscan lender rose more than 30 percent on Monday and closed up 28.3 percent.
The jump added to a week-long rally buoyed by the prospect of an alternative rescue scheme brokered by veteran Italian banker and former industry minister Corrado Passera, although the stock remains down more than 70 percent so far this year.
Some investors are skeptical over the Tuscan bank's ability to carry out a third share issue in as many years at a time when banking stocks trade at a fraction of their book value as negative interest rates eat into profits.
A source familiar with the matter said various Gulf-based sovereign wealth funds were looking at Monte dei Paschi, but have yet to make a commitment
"There needs to be a business plan before these funds are in a position to make up their mind on Monte dei Paschi," the person said. "After (the plan's) presentation it will become clearer whether they want to come onboard."

>>> SNB President Jordan: policy will have to normalize eventually; negative rat

SNB President Jordan: policy will have to normalize eventually; negative rates are indispensable for now given the significant overvaluation of the franc and low global rates 
- negative rates are having the desired effect; side effects increase the longer rates stay low
- "In Switzerland, the cost associated with the current negative interest rate is clearly lower than the cost of holding cash. Consequently, demand for cash has not yet risen substantially. So the effective lower bound for interest rates has not yet been reached, but we know that it exists."
- still have room to maneuver on rates if needed
- helicopter money does not fall within SNB's purview
- transaction tax is not a panacea, and could have side effects

>>> Fed's Evans (dove, non-voter): sees less headroom to raise rates; overshooti

Fed's Evans (dove, non-voter): sees less headroom to raise rates; overshooting inflation target might be appropriate - comments in Chicago 
- pickup in wage growth is only modest 
- because real interest rates are lower, it means real monetary policy is not as accommodative as it may appear
- sees relatively good near-term growth outlook
- good news is that inflation is closer to the target
- Expects 2-2.5% growth in H2 
- there's an arithmetic constraint on potential US gorwth; now sees growth at 1.75-2%
- Fed should be more explicit about what economic data it needs to raise rates further

Q&A: inflationary pressures are hard to find
- reiterates wants to get rates higher so Fed has room to cut rates in next recession