WSJ : Megamergers Face Delays From Heightened EU Scrutiny

Megamergers Face Delays From Heightened EU Scrutiny
Antitrust authorities seek more information on Syngenta-ChemChina deal amid wave of consolidation in agrochemicals

BRUSSELS—An industrywide review by European Union antitrust authorities is slowing down approval for some of the megamergers that have promised to reshape the global agrochemicals business.

Swiss seed and pesticide maker Syngenta AG this week said that regulatory approval of its proposed acquisition by China National Chemical Corp. likely will be delayed into early 2017 as regulators seek more information amid a consolidation wave in the sector. The companies had previously expected the deal to close this year.

In an interview on Tuesday, Syngenta Chief Executive Erik Fyrwald said Bayer AG’s proposed acquisition of Monsanto Co.—which would create the world’s largest seed and pesticide business—prompted more requests for information from regulators regarding the Syngenta and ChemChina deal “than we’d ever seen before.”

The comments suggest that the European Commission, the bloc’s antitrust regulator, likely will open an in-depth investigation into the Syngenta-ChemChina deal by Oct. 28, the EU’s deadline to complete the initial merger review.

The EU usually assesses mergers on a case-by-case basis and in the order in which they have been officially registered with the regulator. But the EU’s antitrust chief Margrethe Vestager has previously signaled that her department’s review of the deals would take into consideration the fact that several mergers in the agricultural sector were taking place at one time.
Bayer says it is preparing its submissions to regulators for the plans announced last month to acquire U.S. seed giant Monsanto for $57 billion.
The European Commission declined to comment.
Speaking before European lawmakers earlier this month, Ms. Vestager said it was too early to tell of the outcome of the agricultural deals but that it was important for farmers to benefit from affordable prices, quality and innovation.
Companies in the agricultural sector are scrambling to merge as declining prices for crops weigh on profit. But the wave of tie-ups, which also includes plans by Dow Chemical Co. and DuPont Co. to combine and then subsequently split in three, poses a challenge for regulators who normally conduct thorough reviews of such mergers.
In the U.S., the deal boom in the agriculture sector has prompted concerns in farm states, drawing scrutiny even from Republican leaders often skeptical of government intervention.
ENLARGE

The ChemChina-Syngenta deal, however, already has cleared a major regulatory hurdle in the U.S., after winning approval from the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S.—a government body with the power to block deals it deems a threat to the nation’s security.
EU regulators likely will scrutinize certain effects of the deals more closely than their counterparts in other jurisdictions, says Ioannis Lianos, a professor of global competition law at University College London.
In the EU, regulators likely will be stricter than peers in other regions when weighing whether the mergers create unreasonably high barriers to entry for rivals, particularly if there is a risk the companies create products that only work with their own brands, he said.
On Tuesday, Mr. Fyrwald said Syngenta received data requests from the EU on crop, geography and active ingredients. He said the companies didn’t meet an EU deadline last Friday to submit remedies to address potential antitrust issues because European regulators weren’t ready to provide feedback.
Syngenta’s review comes as the EU already has opened an in-depth investigation into the Dow-duPont merger on concerns the deal could lead to higher crop seed and pesticide prices. The commission said it found the concessions Dow and DuPont outlined in July “insufficient to clearly dismiss its serious doubts” about the merger being in line with EU rules.
On Tuesday, DuPont CEO Ed Breen told analysts on a conference call that the merger with Dow seems likely to close in the first quarter of 2017, instead of by the end of this year, because of the longer EU review. He said discussions with antitrust authorities in other countries, including the U.S., Brazil and China, were constructive and progressing.

On the Bayer-Monsanto deal, while analysts have said Bayer’s crop science division is complementary with Monsanto, the parties may have to sell some overlapping businesses, including in cotton and canola seeds and herbicides, to satisfy antitrust concerns.

WSJ : The Curious Case of Telefónica’s Resilient Dividend

The Curious Case of Telefónica’s Resilient Dividend
Spanish telecommunications giant is scrambling to slash billions of dollars in debt
MADRID— Telefónica SA is scrambling to slash billions of dollars in debt to ward off a potential downgrade that would knock the Spanish telecommunications giant’s rating closer to non-investment grade.

In the past six months, it has tried, and failed, to sell valuable assets such as its British mobile operator O2 and its Telxius infrastructure unit to pare its €52.6 billion ($57.2 billion) debt, a figure that exceeds its market value of around €45 billion.

One thing, however, it hasn’t touched: its 75 euro cents a share dividend. Investors are watching to see if that reluctance continues Thursday, when Telefónica reports third-quarter earnings.

The company’s new chairman, José María Álvarez-Pallete, has said that the 2016 dividend is “comfortably covered,” but that the company will review the payout level at the end of the year. Pressure is growing, and some analysts are betting on a reversal.

Telefónica’s dividend is at “a level that does not currently seem sustainable,” said Mirabaud Securities analyst Javier Mielgo. The company paid out €2.4 billion in cash to investors for its 2015 dividend.

The dividend has some high-level beneficiaries, an example of the interlocking ties among Spain’s most powerful companies and executives. Two of the telecom’s biggest shareholders, Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentaria SA and CaixaBank SA, which together hold around 12% of Telefónica’s shares and have four of the 18 seats on its board, benefit handsomely from the dividend.

Telefónica’s dividend payments—€198.2 million to BBVA and €192.86 million to CaixaBank in 2015—helped the lenders boost profit as they struggled with weak loan demand, rock-bottom interest rates and greater capital requirements. The dividend is more important for CaixaBank, a domestic Spanish bank, than for BBVA, a large international bank with operations in Mexico and Turkey.


Still, Telefónica has disappointed shareholders before. It suspended investor payouts in 2012, when Spain was mired in a financial crisis.

“When I speak to investors, there is almost a unanimous view that a dividend cut is what Telefónica should do,” said Javier Borrachero, a Kepler Cheuvreux telecommunications analyst.

Some investors say Telefónica hasn’t cut the dividend because the company believes that operations in several countries are performing well enough to maintain it.

Also, César Alierta, who stepped down last April as Telefónica’s chairman and chief executive, might have made it uncomfortable for his successor to cut the dividend, at least right away. Mr. Alierta, who remains on the board, told analysts in February that the dividend was guaranteed “for the next, I don’t know, five years, 10 years.”

Mr. Álvarez-Pallete, the new boss, has vowed to uphold the company’s 2016 dividend.

One middle ground option analysts have mulled: Maintain the 40 euro cents a share cash payout, but cancel the other 35 cents in “scrip” dividend, in which investors can choose to receive cash or additional shares.

Moody’s Investors Service analyst Carlos Winzer said the credit-rating firm wants to see Telefónica cut debt; it doesn’t care how.

Moody’s assigns Telefónica a rating of Baa 2 with a negative outlook, two-notches above “junk.” Many investors, such as pension funds, don’t buy securities below that threshold.

Mr. Winzer’s message to the telecommunications giant: “Tell us before December 2016 what you’re going to do and we want to see you doing things in 2017 in order to meet the commitment of deleveraging.”

(Challenges) L’affaire Ubisoft-Vivendi: quand les politiques s'en mêlent

L’affaire Ubisoft-Vivendi: quand les politiques s'en mêlent
L'affaire opposant Yves Guillemot, le PDG et cofondateur de l'éditeur de jeux vidéo, à Vincent Bolloré, ne se joue pas que sur les places financières, mais aussi dans les coulisses gouvernementales. En toute discrétion.

Une petite phrase anodine? Pas vraiment. Lorsque Stéphane Roussel lâche à quelques journalistes mercredi 12 octobre qu’il « sort du bureau de Christophe Sirugue », le secrétaire d’Etat à l’Industrie, le nouveau PDG de Gameloft de l’ère Bolloré fait passer un message. Il vient alors de terminer une présentation des nouvelles ambitions de l’éditeur de jeux vidéo pour mobile, avalé quatre mois plus tôt après une OPA hostile. La première étape d’une réorientation stratégique dans un secteur d’activité considéré comme vital pour le groupe de médias à la recherche de contenus pour ses différentes plateformes.

Avec cette petite phrase, celui qui est par ailleurs directeur général en charge des opérations de Vivendi laisse entendre que son groupe compte user de tous les moyens pour arriver à ses fins. Et ce deux semaines après l’Assemblée générale d’Ubisoft qui a permis à la famille Guillemot de conforter sa position.

Dans cette bataille acharnée, les deux camps recherchent évidemment des soutiens publics ou plus discrets au sein du gouvernement. Et puis, quand il s’agit de Vivendi, la politique n’est jamais très loin. Même pour Ubisoft. On se souvient qu’en 2005, lorsque le numéro un français du jeu vidéo avait vu l’Américain Electronic Arts entrer à son capital, la famille Guillemot a tenté de jouer le patriotisme économique, en alertant le ministre délégué à l’industrie de l’époque, Patrick Devedjian qui avait pourtant exclu une « intervention directe ».

Lemaire derrière Ubisoft?

Dans l’affaire Ubisoft, pas d’intervention directe non plus. Difficile de prendre parti pour l’un ou l’autre camp dans un dossier franco-français. Cela n’a pas empêché Axelle Lemaire, la secrétaire d’Etat au numérique et à l’innovation de pencher très vite pour le numéro 1 français des jeux vidéo. « Cette indépendance [d’Ubisoft, NDLR] doit à tout prix être préservée », a-t-elle déclaré à Challenges en mars dernier. Depuis, elle a mis un peu d’eau dans son vin. « L’important face à la montée de Vivendi au capital d’Ubisoft est de laisser aux deux parties prenantes des marges de manœuvre indépendantes », a-t-elle déclaré de nouveau à Challenges. Et d’ajouter tout de même qu’elle a été frappée lors de l’Assemblée générale d’Ubisoft du rôle joué par les salariés. « Ils étaient présents en tant qu’actionnaires pour défendre leur entreprise. Je suis convaincue que leur revendication de préserver l’indépendance et la créativité de l'entreprise, qui est une nécessité dans le secteur du jeu vidéo, a beaucoup joué pour faire pencher la balance ».

Pourquoi une telle visite à Bercy? Si on confirme au sein du cabinet de Christophe Sirugue, un peu gêné, la venue de l’homme de Vincent Bolloré, « il l’était au titre de directeur des opérations de Vivendi et non de Gameloft et c’est lui qui était demandeur ». Chez Gameloft, on assure que c’est une « rencontre assez classique, quelque chose qui se fait de manière récurrente ». Et d’assurer que le nouveau PDG y a présenté les grandes lignes de la stratégie de Gameloft. Et pourquoi donc avoir choisi Christophe Sirugue? Parce que, selon une source proche du dossier, Axelle Lemaire n’a rien fait pour le recevoir...

Matignon dans le coup dès le début

Du côté d'Ubisoft, on s’active grandement dans les arcanes du gouvernement. L’entourage d’Yves Guillemot assure être en « contact direct » avec le cabinet de Manuel Valls depuis le début de l’affaire, soit octobre 2015, et avec le cabinet de Macron à l’époque où il était ministre de l’Economie. A Matignon, on dédramatise en rappelant que le cabinet s’intéresse à tous les dossiers économiques de la même façon. « Il y a un grand déficit de connaissance de l’industrie du jeu vidéo », argue-t-on chez l'éditeur, tout en ajoutant « ils sont bien au courant maintenant ». Une manière pourlui de montrer que le jeu vidéo est une nouvelle industrie qui va irriguer l’ensemble des divertissements. Ubisoft cherche à démonter le message délivré par Vivendi. « Quand Vivendi dit qu’ils ont besoin de nous, ça marche auprès des gens qui ne connaissent pas l’industrie et Ubisoft. Mais ils n’ont pas compris que nous n'avons pas besoin d'eux parce que nous sommes plus internationaux qu'eux, avec 95% du chiffre d’affaires fait à l’exportation ! ».

Yves Guillemot était du voyage officiel de Manuel Valls et d’Axelle Lemaire au Canada, un déplacement dans le cadre de l’accord CETA il y a quinze jours. Son entreprise symbolisait l’amitié franco-canadienne. L’occasion pour la secrétaire d’Etat de retourner dans le studio de Montréal, qui compte plus de 2.600 collaborateurs et qui est le centre névralgique des blockbusters du français.

D’aucuns verront un lien entre cet activisme et la décision récente de Bpifrance. Le bras économique du gouvernement a effectivement décidé de céder à Ubisoft les 3,2% du capital qu’il détenait depuis plusieurs années, en septembre dernier. Nicolas Dufourcq, son directeur général, dément avec véhémence toute décision politique dans ce dossier. « Il y a une bataille boursière entre Ubisoft et Vivendi. Nous nous sommes demandé comment rester neutre. Fallait-il vendre la moitié de notre participation à Vivendi et l’autre moitié aux frères Guillemot? La meilleure solution a été de vendre à l’entreprise, dans l’intérêt des salariés ». Bpifrance a trouvé « une solution élégante » pour se sortir de ce piège. Le directeur général renchérit en déclarant que la vente des actions d’Ubisoft était actée depuis novembre 2015, soit un mois après l’arrivée de Vivendi au capital, « au moment où, comme chaque année, nous faisons valider nos plans de monétisation »… Il reconnaît toutefois qu’il a été approché par la famille Guillemot. En revanche, silence radio du côté de Vivendi. Et de rappeler qu’il n’était pas particulièrement proche du management de l’éditeur, notamment parce que ce dernier n’a jamais voulu que la BPI soit représentée au conseil d’administration. Selon lui, « il n’y a eu aucune pression et la position de neutralité a été celle de l’Etat. La BPI défend les intérêts de la France face aux menaces étrangères ». Et dans cette affaire, il n’y a aucune menace de ce type. Mais les coups de fil avec les différents cabinets ne devraient pas pour autant s’estomper dans les mois à venir, Vivendi n’ayant toujours pas baissé les bras. Il faudra bien mettre tout le monde d'accord.

(Jefferies) Beverage : Potential Bottler Implications of KO's Africa Decision

Beverages
Eluding While Aligning: Potential Bottler Implications of KO's Africa Decision

Key Takeaway
Jefferies global beverage team collaboratively views CCE and CCH as likely
beneficiaries from KO’s decision to exercise its option to buy ABI's stake in the
Coca-Cola Beverages Africa (CCBA) JV. CCH is best positioned to acquire the
stake, which could drive upside to our £21 PT, and we reflect potential value
from a sale of its W. Euro. territories as part of the deal structure in our €37 PT
for CCE. CCH is our preferred way to play this theme.
CCH likely better positioned than CCE for ABI’s stake in CCBA: While both CCE and
CCH are likely to express interest as KO refranchises ABI’s stake in CCBA, which we value at
€4-5 billion (12-15x EV/EBITDA), we believe that the latter is likely better positioned given
its expertise in EMs, including Nigeria.
Very plausible that CCH’s W. European territories may go to CCE as part of KO’s
bottler alignment strategy: This would serve two purposes: (i) further align the Coke
system's bottling footprint in W. Europe as CCE acquires distribution rights in contiguous
countries (Ireland/Switzerland/Austria/Italy); and (ii) help CCH finance a potential CCBA
stake (2.3x debt leverage including sale of W. Europe territories, 4.0x excluding).
KO – keeping the fox (ABI) out of the hen house: CCBA covers 40% of KO’s Africa
volumes (~5% globally). The potential refranchising of ABI’s stake in CCBA to CCH (lower
likelihood to CCE) should have little impact on KO’s performance in Africa. However, we view
ABI, which handles PEP’s distribution in Brazil through AmBev and long-rumored to have
ambitions to acquire KO in a potential mega-deal, as a very capable partner for KO. While
consistent with KO’s bottler alignment focus, the co.’s decision to exercise its option to buyout
ABI’s stake in CCBA can reasonably be viewed as a step toward “playing defense” against
a potential ABI bid longer-term. Our FY16-18 est. and $45 PT for KO remain unchanged.
CCE – edging up PT on M&A optionality, though still too early to get
constructive: We lift our PT to €37 (from €36) and incorporate M&A optionality (acq.
of CCH’s W. Euro. territories as part of deal structure). Our base case suggests 12% EPS
accretion from the acq. of CCH’s W. Euro. territories. Yet, despite the potential for upside
to expectations from M&A, we remain on the sidelines due to the weak macro, difficult
competitive env't, and GB excise tax risk. Trimming FY16-18 est. on recent GBP weakness,
though lifting PT to €37 ($40 USD) on 50/50 weighted fundamental/strategic outcome.
CCH – attractive without M&A, though CCBA represents upside optionality: We
see merit to the purchase of ABI's stake in CCBA owing to potential EPS accretion (5-11% in
year three), as well as likely multiple expansion as leverage to higher growth EMs increases
markedly (Africa to 63% of profits from 9%, including sale of W. European territories to CCE).
We remain positive on CCH even in the absence of a major transformational deal as focus
likely turns to bolt-on acquisitions, higher returns to shareholders, and an attractive recovery
story driven by: (i) an improving topline and margin outlook; (ii) greater alignment with KO;
and (iii) balance sheet optionality. Our FY16-18 est. and £21 PT are unchanged.
3Q an unlikely catalyst for KO, which reports on Wed. (10/26): Likely constrained
by EM weakness reported across global consumer staples this earnings season, we

>>> Street Pre-Market Indications 2

Investec
* AIRBUS-Q3 revs miss, Ebita small miss, keeps FY ebit f/cast...............-1%
* BANKIA-Q3 due 11:30
* BAYER-Q3 ebitda 6% beat, raises FY eps f/c, ebitda & rev f/c remain unch..+1%
* BOSS-plans to move away from luxury, focus on men’s premium mkt(HB).......+2%
* CAP GEM-Q3 sales in line, confirms FY guidance, wants bolt-on aqns in US..+1%
* CHR HANSEN-FY touch blw our ests, div better (70c vs 69c), comment follows..-1%
* EDF-spec of Polish sales soon; confident comments on French nuclear safety..+1%
* EDP-sells €100m of tariff deficit, analyst says small incremental +ive....+1%
* FERROVIAL-Q3 due after close
* HAVAS-Q3 org rev +2%, implies Q3 slowdown as 9m is 2.7%...................-1%
* HEINEKEN-Q3 organic beer vols +2%(est +1.4%), mkt prob expected a beat....+1%
* IBERDROLA-9m no’s in line to a touch ahead, comment to follow.............U/C
* INGENICO-due after close
* KERING-Q3 org gth +10.5% (+7%),big beat at Gucci, highly confident for FY..+3%
* KLEPIERRE-due after close
* KRONES-Q3 revs 2% ahead, confirms FY, gives outlook to 2020...............+2%
* LOGITECH-Q2 rev 7% beat, eps 35c vs est 25c, keeps outlook................+5%
* NOKIA-Juniper +7% after hours on Q3 beat/Q4 guidance......................+1%
* NORDEA-Q3 numbers mixed, CET1 17.9% vs est 17.4%, strong into no’s........-1%
* NOVOZYMES-Q3 miss, guides FY lower, comment to follow.....................-3%
* PEUGEOT-Q3 rev small miss (1.5%), keeps rev gwth targets...................-1%
* RED ELEC-Q3 net matches ests..............................................U/C
* RENAULT-Q3 rev 1% ahead, confirms FY guidance.............................U/C
* SAIPEM-Q3 beat, confirms 2016,2017 guidance mixed,mkt may have priced in..+1%
* SANTANDER-Q3 net 10% ahead of cons, CET1 in line,‘in line to meet goals’..+3%
* SEB SA-Q3 org sales 6%,looks like a raise to org sales & op profit ests..+3%
* SKF-due midday
* TEF DEUTSCH-Q3 oibda 1% ahead of cons, reits FY f/casts...................U/C
* TELENOR-Q3 rev in line, net miss(impairments), ebitda beat, o/look unch...+1%
* UNIBAIL-Q3 gross retail inc +6.7%, reits FY eps guidance..................U/C
* WIRECARD-Q3 in line, raised guidance on 4th Oct...........................U/C
* VINCI-Q3 rev 2% light, confirms FY outlook................................-1%
Other
* FORTUM - reit SELL, TP €11 from €10. Note published.
* ANTO'S-Update. Prod. at lower end, lowers FY17 fcast.......................-2%
* ASTRAZENECA-Positive results from Lynparza Phase 3 trial.................unch
* BUZL-Q3. #'s in line, FX positve.B/S remains strong. Weak into stmnt....+1-2%
* CYBG-Makes preliminary approach for RBS W&G unit..........................-3%
* GENEL-Update. Prod & guid small miss. Lowers FY17 guidance. Weak into stmnt...-5%
* GLAXO-Q3 due midday
* IMAG.TECH-Apple Q1 gross margin a miss, -2.5% after hrs...................-2%
* LLOYDS-Q3.PBT 1% miss. CET1 ratio better. Reaffirms Q2 expectations.......-2%
* MEGGITT-Wins $48m Chinese helicopter contract with Hangxin...............unch
* RBS-CYBG makes preliminary approach for RBS W&G unit......................+1%
* REDDE-Update.+ve momentum continues. Profit ahead of expectations.........+2%
* SIERRA RUTILE-Merger update. Extends discussion until 4th Nov. In line....unch
* VODAFONE-Fined £4.6m for breaching OFCOM billing rules....................-1%

Credit Suisse
Abertis M/P Revs €3.61bn vs cons 3.605bn, EBITDA €2.41bn vs cons €2.4bn
Aena -0.5% Q3 revenues 1.4% light, Q3 EBITDA 1.7% ahead
Antofagasta -4-5% Negative on Q4/FY16 & 17 Guidance
Airbus -1% Revenues 1% light, FCF 17% worse
Acerinox +1-2% EBITDA slightly ahead, guidance fine
Bayer R 3Q EBITDA ex items from cont. ops EU2.68B est EU2.53B
Bunzl M/P Trading update inline with market expectations
Capgemini -2% 3Q sales fall 0.6%, confirms 2016 outlook
Chr Hansen +1-2% EBIT inline, net slightly better, confirm FY guidance
Cramo -1-2% Q3 sales €184.8m, cons 186.4m, confirms FY guidance
Fred Olsen M/P Q3 Revs6% ahead, EBITDA $119m, cons 121m
Genel -3-5% 2016 revs now seen at bottom end of guidance
Gjensidige -1-2% 3Q pretax NOK1.52b cons NOK1.66b
Huhtamaki -1-2% Sales €719m vs cons €746m
Inmarsat UNCH CS REITERATE OUTPERFORM (TP 940p from 1060p)
Heineken +1% Organic consolidated beer volume beats estimates
Iberdrola +1-2% 9M ADJ. NET EU2.04B, est EU2B
Kering +5% Good numbers - Gucci LFL sales +17% (est +10)
Logitech +5-8% Q2 revenues 6% ahead, Non-GAAP EBIT 28% ahead
Lloyds -0.5% Bottom line a 3% miss, CET ratio 13.4% vs 13.3%
Meggitt +0.5% Awarded $48m contract to supply Health/Usage Monitoring Sys
Miners -1-2% Copper -0.40%, Brent -1.25%, Iron Ore +0.45%, China -0.24%
O2D +1% 3Q revs 1.88bn vs 1.82bn cons, reiterates forecast
Oils -1% API data announced a Crude build of 4.75M barrels
Nordea +1-2% Bottom line a 10% beat, CET1 at 17.9%, 50bps ahead of cons
Novozymes -3-5% Org growth disappointing, guidance adjusted to lower end
Nostrum +1% Production at 38.9 kb/d, cons 40 kb/d, guidance maintained
Peugeot +1% Sales broadly inline, lifts Europe
Red Elec M/P 3Q Net EU147.8m looks inline with consensus
Renault -1% Revenues 1.5% beat, confirmed FY forecasts
Saipem -3-5% Q3 numbers a beat, guidance weak and debt higher
Santander +1-2% CET1 up ~10bps from 10.36% to 10.47%, net income a 9% beat
SEB +1-2% Q3 rev E1.2b cons E1.18b, raises FY targets
Telenor +1% Revs in-line, EBITDA a beat by 3%
Unibail -1% 9m results inline, turnover up 5% YoY, reiterates forecast
Vinci M/P Q3 revs E10b (cons E10.2b) and confirms FY outlook
Wirecard M/P Q3 sales €268m vs cons €265m, EBITDA slightly ahead
XXL ASA -2% Q3 revs NOK2.08bn vs cons 2.19bn, keep FY guidance

RBC
*ABERTIS: +1% Q3 net income in line, EBITDA small beat.
*AIRBUS: -2% Q3 profit falls 21% on A350 costs, rev miss, FY confirmed.
*ANTO: +1% Q3 update mixed, copper prod in line, 17 guidance in focus.
*BAYER: +1% Q3 core EPS beat, raises FY Core EPS goal.
*BMW/DAI: -1% read from GREAT WALL MOTORS (-10.5%) on weak Q3 numbers.
*BOSS: +1% CEO suggests movement away from luxury towards premium segment,
*B. POPULAR: -2% Il CONFIDENCIAL: unlikely to meet Q3 estimates.
*BUNZL: -3% Q3 organic growth flat v +1% expect.,
*CAPGEMINI: 0% Q3 sales -0.6%, confirming FY guidance.
*DLG: -3% weak read through from APPLE (-3%) after hours.
*GENEL ENERGY: -3% FY prod guided down on weak production.
*HEINEKEN: +1% Q3 slight beat on volumes, +2% v +1.6% consensus, FY expectation reit.
*IBEDROLA: 0% Q3 EBITDA and net income in line, FY financial targets confirmed.
*KERING: +3% best quarter results in 3 years, Gucci +17% & Saint Laurent +34%.
*KONECRANES: +1% Q3 order intake weak, net sales and profit ahead.
*LLOYDS: -1% Q3 mixed, capital ratio increased to 13.4%, provisions 15% worse.
*LOGITECH: +3% Q2 rev beat, FY guidance confirmed.
*METRO BANK: -2% Q3 numbers in line, achieved first quarterly profit ever, downgraded.
*PEUGEOT: 0% Q3 rev miss on Chinese-European weakness, FY guidance confirmed.
*RENAULT: -1% Q3 rev in line, FY guidance confirmed.
*RED ELECTRICA: -1% Q3 results in line, EBIT & net profit tad light.
*NORDEA: +2% Q3 pre-tax profit 7% above consensus, NII slight miss.
*NOVOZYMES: -4% Q3 revs 7% miss, gross profit light, downgrades growth targets.
*SANTANDER: +2% Q3 beat, NII ahead, revenues better.
*STOREBRAND: +2% Q3 mixed, improved solvency, operating profit miss, net profit beat.
*TELEFONICA: +1% Q3 rev & EBITDA beat, good subs growth & FY guidance reiterated.
*TELENOR: +2% Q3 revs in line, EBITDA beat, FY guidance reiterated.
*VINCI: 0% Q3 revs light, but confirms FY outlook.

Shore Cap
LLOYDS-Q3 ptp 1.91b(Est2.04b).£1b PPI charge.740m pension deficit in Q3.....-3%
BUNZL-Q3 grp rev +7%.Says total performance is consistent with views.......UNCH
VODAFONE-OFCOM fines Vodafone 4.6m for failing customers....................-1%
MEGGITT-Sensing system gets $48m contract..................................UNCH
REDDE-Says trading profit is ahead of forecasts as sales gain...............+3%
CENTAUR MEDIA-Says expects to meet market estimates for year...............UNCH
PEARSON-said to be in talks to sell TutorVista..............................+1%
METRO BK-deposits +66% record increase in new accounts and swings into pft..+1%
RBS- CYBG confirms in discussion to buy Williams and Glyn...................+1%
ASTRAZEN-Phase3 ovarian cancer drugs shows improvement in survival rates...UNCH

Julius Baer
SMI -0.2%

BALN +0.9%
LOGN +5.8%

Tradegate
BAYN +1.2%
TKA -0.7%
Norma -2.6%
Krones +2%
WDI +2%
O2D +1.4%
AIR -0.6%
Santander +2.1%
CAP +0.7%
BOSS +0.2%
NZY -1.6%
Nordea +1.5%
Novo +0.7%
SBRY +2.4%
Uniper -2%

MainFirst
*BOSS-CEO wants to abandon luxury segment-Focus CMD 16th Nov........U/C
*AIRBUS-Rev 13.95b(14.7),Ebit 731m(735),Supply chain difficult......-2%
*NORDEA-NII 1.18B(1.19),CET1 17.9%(17.4),NI 888M(824.9).............+2%
*BSCH-Net 1.7b(1.54),CET1 Fully Loaded 10.47%,NII 7.8b..............+1%
*TELENOR-Rev 32.8b(32.9),Ebitda 12.5b(12),Loss 4.82b(+122.7)........+2%
*BIC-Q3 Sales 559.6m(561),Q3 EPS 1.57,Net 73.6m,Confirms FY o/l.....-2%
*RENAULT-Q3 Rev €10.55b(10.41),Confirms FY forecasts...............-1%
*KERING-Sales €3.18b(3.09),OG 10.5%(10),Gucci 17%(10),Puma 10.8%....+3%
*SEB-Rev 1.2b(1.18),ORG 6.5%,Raises FY targets......................+2%
*VINCI-Rev 10b(10.2),Confirms FY outlook, Order book s/decline.......+0.5%
*SAIPEM-Ebitda 328m(306),OP 155m(137),NI 60m(66),o/l confirmed......+2%
*LOGITECH-Sales $564m(526.2),EPS 35c(25),Ebit 53.4m(38).............+5%
*IPSEN-Q3 Sales 390.6m(400),Guidance raised for 2016................+1%
*HUHTAMAKI-Net Sales 719m(746.3),Ebit 67m(73.4),Capex revised.......-2%
*CAP GEM-Sales 3.02b(3.05),wants 2 make bolt on acq’s, Reit FY.......-1%
*BAYER-Ebitda 2.68b(2.53),Sales 11.62b(11.3),EPS 1.73(1.65).........+1%
*PEUGEOT-Q3 Rev 11.4b(11.56),Reits 2015-18 Rev.Grth target..........-1%
*KRONES-Rev 819.8m(802.8),EBT 56.3m(55.9),Confirms 2016 o/l.........+1%
*SHW-Rev 96.9m(104),Ebitda 10.7m(11),Net 3.4m(3.3),FY low end.......-1%
*O2D-Rev 1.88b(1.88),Net -105m(-90),Reits outlook for 2016..........+0.5%
*HEINEKEN-Organic Beer Vols 2%(1.4),Cons Beer Vols 54MHL(53.5)......+0.5%
*WIRECARD-Q3 Ebitda 81.4m(81),Sales 268m(267.5),+ve on Q4...........+2.5%
*KESKO-Sales 2.79b(2.81),Ebit 98.2m(91),EPS 73c(65),FY OK...........+1%
*UNIBAIL-9M Rev 1.5b,Gross Rental Inc 1.32b,sells 2 buildings.......U/C

Macquarie
* AstraZeneca AZN - Positive results in AstraZeneca Lynparza trial (Ovarian Cancer drug) +1%

*Atlantis Resources ARL- MeyGen project on track to have all turbines installed & on track by end of year. Unch

*Bunzl BNZL- trading inline, Q3 rev +7%, plans further acquisitions & funding headroom available; +1%

*CYBG- Confirms Press Spec that it is in preliminary decisions with RBS in relation to Williams & Glyn acquisition. (£1.5bn has been price mentioned) -2%

*Genel GENL- Guiding Production towards lower end of Guidance Range (c10% Downgrade). Capital expenditure also being lowered. Already factored in? -5%

*Lloyds LLOY- Underlying pretax profit GBP1.91b; est. GBP2.04b. Statutory pretax GBP811m vs GBP958m. Revenue GBP4.275b vs GBP4.237b, CET1 ratio 13.4% vs 2Q’s 13%. -1%

*Metro Bank MTRO- Q3 Update- Loans & Deposits up 12% in the quarter, customer accounts increased 68k to 848k. Total Rev up 15%. +1%

*Nostrum Oil NOG- Maintained production above 44,000 boepd, Full Year guidance remains at 40,000 boepd. Continues to reduce costs. +2%

*RBS- CYBG announces they have made an approach for the W&G branch network. Unch

Commerzbank
DAX Future -0.02% at 10740

AIR -0.7% Q3 in line, guidance confirmed, Q4 needs to deliver
BAYN +0.4% Strong margin development all over, modest increase in adj. EPS guid
BOSS +0.3% To pivot away from luxury market
CON –1.1% MS cuts to Equalweight (Overweight) – PT €185 (200)
DBK -0.7% Said to weigh alternatives to cash bonus payments
DLG –2.4% Apple -3% after hours, guidance mildly supportive
KRN +2.2% Solid Q3 with strong orders, new medium term targets focus on growth
O2D +0.7% Q3 above due to mobile service revenues
PUM +0.1% Q3 sales slightly above
SW1 –1.6% Misses on Q3, guidance challenging
VOW3 +0.1% Receives final approval for US civil settlement over $14.7bn
WDI +1.8% Delivery of anticipated strength in Q3

Jefferies
KERING: Q3 #s GOOD, impressive performance from premium brands, we reit BUY
TELENOR: Q3 #s IN LINE/BETTER and also reit guidance, stock had good run tho .. called -2%
RENAULT: Q3 revenues BEAT ~1%, but c/call didn't go well, we reit U/P...... called -2%
AIRBUS: Q3 #s MISS rev/EBIT, reit FCF + confirms o/lk, supply chain issue.. called -1%
NORDEA: Q3 #s IN LINE, but NII S/LITE sees improved NI margin in Q4 ... called +2%
O2 DEUTSCHLAND: Mobile service revenues -1.8% vs -2% cons ... called +1%
SANTANDER: Q3 NII at EUR 7.79bn, 1% above exp, fees at 2.597bn 1% above ... called +2%
IPSEN: RAISES guidance for Specialty Care sales to above 15% growth, we reit BUY ... called +1%