WSJ : Siemens, Gamesa Near Wind-Power Deal

Siemens, Gamesa Near Wind-Power Deal

Deal would end months of the uncertainty around the transaction

FRANKFURT—Siemens AG and Gamesa Corporacion Tecnologica SA are close to announcing an anticipated deal to combine their wind-power activities and create the world’s largest wind turbine maker, according to people familiar with the matter.

A deal, which could be announced as early as this week according to the people, would end months of the uncertainty around the transaction. As always in these deals, an announcement could be delayed.

Siemens and Gamesa in February agreed in principle to combine their wind activities, but the tie-up hit a snag because Gamesa needed to renegotiate elements of an offshore wind joint venture, dubbed Adwen, with French nuclear engineering firm Areva SA.

Those issues have been resolved in principle, the people said.

The deal structure that is to be revealed as early as Wednesday foresees Siemens transferring its offshore wind activities into the Spanish company in exchange for a roughly 60% stake in the enlarged business, people familiar with the matter said, adding the combination could help realize annual synergies of around €200 million ($224.13 million).

The expanded entity would likely have a market capitalization of roughly €10 billion, remain listed on the Madrid Stock Exchange and be led by Gamesa’s Chairman Ignacio Martin, the people said.

The transaction still needs to be approved by Gamesa’s shareholders, who will get to vote on the transaction.

Both Siemens and Gamesa declined to comment.

(Makor) - Dividend Weekly - see attached

June 15, 2016 

 

MAKOR - Dividend Weekly

 

Good morning,

 

Please find our MAKOR dividend weekly report of 15 June 2016.

 
Weekly ahead :


- SX5E Dividend futures outperformed the SX5E Index


- Long terms underperformed short term with -3.07% for 2017 to -7.56% for 2020


- 2019 / 2017 discount up to 17.97% close to the annual high reached in February (18.46%)


- Unicredit, still decreased with -6.67% for 2017, -30.00% for 2018 and 2019 because of financial issues and rumor of capital increase and catch up effect (Unicredit future dividends 2018 and 2019 hadn’t gone down in line with the 2017 over past few weeks)

 

 

 

 

  

  ​     ​     ​

 

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(MS) Aerospace : Two large May orders push YTD book to bill at Airbus and Boeing

Two large May orders push YTD book to bill at Airbus and Boeing towards 1x

Combining the stats for Airbus (200 orders to 234 deliveries = 0.85x) and
Boeing (296 orders to 301 deliveries = 0.98x), aircraft book to bill or gross
orders to deliveries reached 0.93x for the first five months of the year, as
shown in Exhibit 1.

Prior to the 208 combined orders booked in May (125 Boeing, 83 Airbus),
aircraft book to bill had had its weakest start to a year since 2010 (0.7x book to
bill over Jan - April). More than three-quarters of May's order intake is
attributable to two large orders: (i) at Boeing, an order from VietJet Air for 100
737 MAX aircraft, signed during President Obama's visit to Vietnam; and, (ii) at
Airbus an order for 60 A320neo family aircraft (45 A320s, 15 A321s) for an
undisclosed customer, although we note that this matches an order placed by
China's Spring Airlines in December 2015 which itself also formed part of the
130 aircraft deal agreed between Airbus and China last October

While there are some orders still yet to enter the backlog, from China where
it’s hard to be precise on exactly how many, and from Iran where an Airbus
order for 118 aircraft is still awaiting certain approvals which are expected to
be gained by year end, we think book to bill looks set to slow further this year
after 1.48x last (1.87x at Airbus; 1.15x at Boeing) as shown in Exhibit 2.

As detailed in our note from 13 April entitled Cycle Update – A Fine Balance,
while we see a deceleration in book-to-bill as natural at this point in the cycle,
after a period of sustained strength, and while we don’t expect it to have
negative implications for Airbus’ medium-term production plans, we find it
hard to ignore the fact that the multiple on which Airbus shares trade has
remained somewhat correlated with book-to-bill trends despite the record
backlog of aircraft orders (9.1 years cover vs 2015 deliveries). By way of a
reminder, order cover in narrowbody (10.1 years) remains well ahead of
widebody (6.3 years) supporting our preference for Safran over Rolls-Royce
in engine propulsion.

(UBS) Zodiac : Better than expected organic growth, but still

Better than expected organic growth, but still behind schedule on the A350 deliveries

Q: What were the most noteworthy areas in the results?
Zodiac reported Q3 organic revenue growth rate of 4.4% y/y (UBSe 2% y/y) supported
by strong growth in Cabin and aftermarket, that more than offset the headwinds in
bizjets and helicopters. Guidance for the full year was confirmed and management
reiterated expectations to get back to operational performance in 15 months, with
normalization of financial performance following thereafter. We perceive as positive the
progress made in Seats: a) certification of dynamic shells, b) supply chain
improvements. However, we remain concerned by the A350 lavatory delivery rates
remaining behind schedule.

Q: How did the results compare vs. expectations?
Zodiac reported Q3 sales of €1,353m (up 3.7% y/y, UBSe €1,298m, cons €1,290m),
with Aerosafety sales of €149m (down 7.7% y/y organically, UBSe €168m), Aircraft
Systems sales of €366m (up 4.9% y/y organically, UBSe €338m), Seats sales of
€385.7m (up 3.2% y/y organically, UBSe €378m), and Cabins of €451.9m (up 10% y/y
organically, UBSe €414m).

Q: How would we expect investors to react?
On the positive side: a) Q3 organic growth is encouraging showing sequential
improvement after the -1.7% y/y organic decline in H1 and; b) confirmed guidance;
could be supportive for the stock after the recent underperformance. Nevertheless we
believe uncertainty remains on the back of: a) persistence of delivery delays with A350
lavatories caused by quality issues, b) shape of the financial recovery in FY 16/17 and
thereafter.

Valuation: trading on18.7x calendar 16E EV/EBITA, 24.1x calendar 16E P/E
Our €18.5 price target is based on 9% WACC, 5 year profit growth of 18% CAGR
from FY15/16E and cash conversion of 82%, which implies a fair value multiple of
18.8x FY15/16E EV/EBITA.

(CS) Global Equity Strat. Fiscal QE : When, wherw, and how to play it

Fiscal QE: when, where, and how to play it

Markets are underestimating the probability of 'fiscal QE': In our opinion, the likelihood of some form of fiscal QE by one of the G4 central banks over the next 3-5 years is high, for the following reasons: i) given the age of the US cycle, history suggests there is a 60% chance of a US recession within the next three years; this would require real rates to fall by 5%, which is very hard to achieve; ii) conventional QE is having increasingly unwelcome side-effects (e.g. banks' NIMs falling, ‘zombie’ capitalism, and potential housing bubbles); iii) fiscal QE is effective (the multiplier on government spending is 1.8x, and there is a shortage of infrastructure investment in many developed markets); iv) it's more acceptable politically, as it can target the median household via construction jobs and tax cuts/incentives; and v) we believe that strong structural disinflationary forces (technology, China) will continue to make it hard for central banks to hit their inflation targets. Ultimately, central banks' holdings of domestic government debt could be swapped into very long-dated zero coupon bonds, meaning increased government spending has little financing impact

We rank the likelihood of fiscal QE by region: Based on shortage of existing infrastructure, need for stimulus, how constrained monetary tools are and policy flexibility, we think Japan is most likely to conduct some form of fiscal QE, followed by the UK, the US and lastly the euro area.

We identify five types of fiscal QE: The most likely of these is implicit (governments spend while central banks print) or funding of profitable infrastructure projects. We think Japan is most likely to move first but will probably resort to tax cuts/spending (given its high-quality infrastructure). Within the UK, we believe infrastructure QE is most likely to occur within 3-5 years. While political hurdles to undertaking infrastructure QE are greater in the Eurozone, we describe a form of revamped Juncker Plan which might work legally, practically and logically but would need a crisis and time to organise.

Equity and sector implications: We focus on stocks that would benefit from infrastructure QE and look attractive regardless. We introduce an overweight on European construction (previously no weighting), as the construction share of GDP is at a 20-year low (Travis Perkins and Assa Abloy look cheap on Credit Suisse HOLT® with eCAP awards), and stay overweight cement (LafargeHolcim). The outlook for US non-residential construction looks attractive, with a compelling need to upgrade infrastructure (Halma, Wolseley). We like defence companies with strong local content benefit (Thales). We include a sensitivity analysis based on a 5% increase in construction/defence spending for the respective companies. Into fiscal QE, real rates should fall, which would re-rate equities (US P/E multiples could rise to c18x on our fair value model). The fall in real rates would also support the gold price (where, anyway, central bank diversification could lead to a sixfold increase in gold demand). US names that would benefit from the themes above (with an eCAP and cheap on HOLT) are: Johnson Controls, Raytheon, General Dynamics.

>>> Street Pre-Market indications

ML
ZODIAC - Q3 sales beat and guidance maintained for op profit. SI 6.5%.....+5%
INDITEX - Solid. EBITDA +1% ahead driven by top line with revs +17%.......+2%
JIMMY CHOO - Trading update inline but stock -15% in last 2 months......+1-2%
AIRBUS - Found temp solution to replace defective part of engine; Echos.+1-2%
UK MINERS - Copper +0.6%, Gold +0.2%, Iron Ore fut unch with BHP OZ -1.1%.+1%
INFINEON - +ve on Auto demand as Chin Poon suggests orders full until YE..+1%
OXIG - FY inline with EPS ahead at 49.2 v bbg cons 48.6. Net debt better..+1%
SCHNEIDER - Aveva terminates takeover talks with Schneider Electric.......+1%
SAS - Says reached wage agreement with Swedish pilot union. Ends strike.+0.5%
GALAPAGOS - R&D in US today. Of note 2 early stage drugs get through PI...u/c
TELENOR - First operator to remove EU roaming fees for Swedish customers..u/c
H&M - May sales +9% cFX, an improvement on 5% in Apr, v bbg cons +10.8%..u/c
ERICSSON - Dagbaldet now reporting 25k job reductions & divestment of biz.u/c
ABB - Said to consider rival bid if solicited by Kuka according to WSJ..-0.5%
YARA - We DOWNGRADE to Underperform, PO NOK 250 on deteriorating earnings.-1%
BERKELEY - PBT inline & on target for '18 BUT reservations -20% in 5mnths.-3%
AVEVA - Ends talks with Schneider. Think will trade back to Tues level....-8%
RBC PRE-MARKET INDICATIONS:
*ABB: 0% WSJ reports may consider rival KUKA bid.
*AVEVA: -4% terminate takeover talks with SCHNEIDER.
*BERKLEY GROUP: +1% Strong FY16 PBT ahead of guidance that was raised in March.
*H&M: -3% MAY sales up 9% versus estimated 11%, under pressure for Q2 results.
*INDITEX: +3% LFL sales +11% versus estimated +9%, above forecasts.
*JIMMY CHOO: +2% on track to deliver margin improvement, good start to 2016.
*RECKITTS: 0% rumours of PERRIGO (+9.6%) bid over night.
*SCHNEIDER: 0% AVEVA terminate takeover talks.
*WOLSELEY: 0% Census Bureau shows building material growth -3.6% in MAY.
*ZODIAC: +2% Q3 sales ahead of expectations, outlook cautious.

CS:
ABB unch Would consider making a rival bid for KUKA
Airbus M/P Co to deliver French Defense Ministry ninth A400M
Astra Zen +0.5% Farxiga gets tougher FDA warnings. (kidney treatment)
Autos +1% Decent bounce in Chinese peers Guangzhou (+3.7%)
Aveva -8-9%
CSFB pre mkt Termination of discussions with Schneider Electric SE
Berkeley grp -5% All inline, but outlook very cautious
Cosmo Pharma +2% Says Eleview has been granted the CE mark for mkting in EU
FCC +1% Inversora Carso exercises option to buy 9.45m FCC share
Iberdrola -1% IBE & RDS faces fine in US related to mkt manipulation
Inditex +1% Q1 revs 4.88 vs 4.84, EBITDA 955m vs. 942m
H&M unch Numbers look light but stock on 3 year lows
Jimmy Choo +3% Made a good start to the year, trding inline
Kuka +2-3% Midea Offer for Kuka Shares to Begin Tomorrow (€115/sh)
Luxottica +2-3% CS initiated with O/P on valuation
Michelin unch May tyre data a touch soft, European volumes -2%
Miners +1% Metals holding up, Aussie names +1%
Oils unch API surprisingly negative, ADRs added 50bps
OVS -1% Results mixed, sales a little disappointing
Oxford instr M/P FY revs £361.4m is slightly ahead, OUTLOOK INLINE
Royal Dutch -0.5% IBE & RDS faces fine in US related to mkt manipulation
Restaur grp M/P New CFO from Monarch travel group
Rheinmetall -1% Subsidiary said to be hacked by Chinese
Schneider +2% Schneider/Aveva terminate talks
VW +1% Said to Plan Merging Components Units, Weigh Asset Sale
Zodiac +3-5% No incremental negs, revs 5% ahead of consensus exp

(MS) Vivendi 'Person of Interest'

The implicit value of Canal+ is now distressed. While the rejection of the BeIn Sports deal is a setback, we see appeal in the Vivendi story. PT lowered to €19, remain OW.

'Dr No'. The Antitrust Authority has rejected the Canal+/BeIn Sports deal.
However, hope is not lost. According to its head Bruno Lasserre the Authority
"would now work on a clear regulatory framework for 2017-22, which will
give Canal+ a clear path to deploy its strategy".
'Ice Age'. True, visibility on subs growth – or stabilization – in France is
elusive. But Canal+ is today implicitly valued at a meagre ~€1-2bn – too low,
in our view: i) in France, cost-cutting ( €200m+ according to Les Echos) is likely
to be intensified, protecting earnings. New offers, due in H2, may also help
commercial momentum. ii) Africa, free-TV and Studiocanal growth should
more than offset domestic pay-TV weakness. iii) If the turnaround
succeeds,Vivendi 2019 EPS would be >15% too low and Canal+ would be
implicitly valued at ~2x 2019e EBITA.
'Give life back to Music'. UMG trends have been mildly disappointing so far.
We remain optimistic though as industry trends are strong. We expect organic
growth to accelerate from 0-2% to 3-5% as i) mix continues to improve (more
streaming, less physical/downloads); ii) 2014-15 market share losses should
reverse; iii) there is an opportunity to extract more money from ad-supported
music platforms.
'Command & Conquer'. Investor feedback suggests they are worried about
Vivendi capital allocation. Since 2014 though, €8.6bn has been returned to
shareholders against 'only' €5bn invested in bolt-on M&A and stakes. The
€2.5bn investment in TI is out of the money for now but fairly immaterial at
the Vivendi level (-€0.5ps).
It's tough out there. We cut our estimates and PT to €19 to reflect tougher
short-term trends at Canal+ and a lower value for TI (-35% YTD), but we still
see >25% upside.
'Bullish'. After a poor run since going xdiv, the risk/reward skews positively (-
10/+70%). We expect cost-cutting at Canal+ and acceleration in Music trends
to help drive a re-rating of the stock, which now trades at a ~20% discount to
the sector on ~8x 2017e EV/EBITDA. A resumption of the share buyback would
also help. The current share price is ~15% below Vincent Bollore's last
investment round, providing a good backstop.

FT : Berkeley: new home reservations have fallen 20%

Berkeley: new home reservations have fallen 20%

Berkeley Group, the high end UK housebuilder, has warned that reservations on new homes have fallen by a fifth in the first five months of the year, due to a combination of the forthcoming EU membership referendum, weakening demand for luxury properties in London and the group launching fewer new schemes this year.

Presenting full-year results on Wednesday, the housebuilder, which is focused on London and the south-east of England, raised concerns that transaction levels in both the second hand and new homes market have not increased to “the levels we all would hope for at this stage in the cycle”, said Nathalie Thomas.

Revenue in the year to April 30 fell to £2.05bn from £2.12bn, while pre-tax profit also edged down to £530.9m from £539.7m a year earlier. It said:

Global macro uncertainty and the impending EU Referendum have had a dampening effect on investment levels across all businesses and this is likely to continue up to and immediately after the result of the Referendum. This, along with the market adjusting to higher levels of property transaction taxes, has affected the upper end of the housing market in London, although underlying interest and demand remain good.

Appetite for high-end properties in the UK capital has been waning following changes to stamp duty in December 2014, while agents have also cited factors such as a reduction in overseas buyers following the commodities slowdown and weakening of emerging market currencies.

The company also sold a large number of its developments in London in 2013 and 2014 and did not bring any new schemes to the market in the first five months of the year.

In his statement accompanying the results, chairman Tony Pidgley threw his weight behind the UK remaining in the EU. He said:

The outcome of next week’s referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union is significant for the UK’s housebuilding and property sector. Berkeley supports a vote to remain in the EU. London’s status as the world’s best big city is underpinned by labour mobility, cultural diversity and a constant influx of talent and investment from around the world, and the UK economy in turn is powered by the success of our capital city.

However, London will always be a world city and a highly desirable place to live, work and play. For Berkeley, our brand, our land holdings and our forward sales will continue to differentiate and underpin our performance over the long term and, while we have a clear view about what the better outcome would be on Thursday 23 June, we are confident about the future for our business.

Property surveyors have predicted the first fall in UK house prices this year since 2012. Members of the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors said in a closely-watched survey published earlier this month that prices in London had already started to fall.

>>> FT The wedding is off. Again.

The wedding is off. Again.


UK engineering software developer Aveva says the latest round of merger talks with French industrials groups Schneider have ended, just days after it confirming it had received an offer from the company over acquiring a majority stake.

The companies had resumed discussions after their previously agreed deal collapsed in late December last year.

Aveva said on Wednesday that it shares would resume trading following the announcement of a suspension on Monday. The transaction would have been considered a reverse takeover under the UK Listing Rules, so trading in Aveva shares was suspended with immediate effect.

In a statement, the software company said:

Following the termination of the preliminary discussions between AVEVA Group Plc and Schneider Electric SE, AVEVA has applied to the UKLA for the suspension of its shares to be lifted.

As a result, it is anticipated that AVEVA’s shares will resume trading at 8:00am BST this morning.

>>> What to look at today - 15th of June 2016

Dow -0.33% S&P -0.18% NAsdaq -0.10% Russell -0.25%
Asian equity markets are mixed as traders squared some of the recent bearish bets going into Wednesday's FOMC and BOJ policy decisions. Stocks were initially lower - particularly the indices in Shanghai and Hong Kong - after Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) again postponed including the A-Shares in its emerging market index. Similarly, risk-off flows initially translated into gains in JPY at the expense of AUD and NZD before a reversal later in the day. Momentum in expectations that MSCI will finally include A-shares in its emerging market index had been building as of late given some of the financial regulatory reform in China over the past 12 months in fact, Goldman Sachs assigned about a 70% probability of inclusion. However, for the 3rd year in a row, MSCI deferred that inclusion while acknowledging the improvements in market accessibility. Among the reason behind the decision, MSCI said the "20% monthly repatriation limit remains a significant hurdle for investors that may be faced with redemptions such as mutual funds and must be satisfactorily addressed", adding that local exchanges' pre-approval restrictions on launching financial products are also unaddressed. MSCI did suggest however that A-shares would remain on 2017 review list and that a potential off-cycle announcement on A shares cannot be ruled out. After the decision, securities regulator CSRC said the decision to delay including A-share won't affect capital market reform. Similarly, state researcher Zhang said China should not make major changes to financial regulation framework because of downside risks remaining in the near term. With just over a week to the Brexit referendum, latest Comres poll put 46% in favor of staying in EU vs 45% for leaving (prior 52% for staying in EU, 41% for leaving), and researchers at Oxford University put about a 40% chance that the vote will be in favor of Leave. Fin Min Osborne remained vocal backing EU membership, estimating a £30B financial hole to UK economy in the event of a Leave victory and forcing an emergency budget within weeks of the poll.

Nikkei +0.69% Hang Seng +0.24% CSI +1.55% Shanghai +1.77%

Eur$ 1.1221 CNH 6.6054 CNY 6.5934 JPY 106.26 GBP 1.4162 CHF 0.9648 RUB 66.0254 WTI 47.87 -1.28%

S&P -0.01% EuroStoxx +0.86% Dax +0.71% SMI +0.29%

Macro :
- ECB, European Banks Discussed Stress Tests on Tuesday: Sole
- MSCI to Delay Including China A Shares in Emerging Markets Index
- Uber to Raise $1b-$2b in Form of Leveraged Loan: CNBC Cites DJ

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB Said to Likely Consider Rival Bid if Solicited by Kuka: WSJ
- AIR FP : Airbus to Deliver French Defense Ministry Ninth A400M: Echos
- AIR FP : Zodiac’s A350 Cabin Comments Show It Still Has ‘Challenges’: RBC
- AREVA FP : Areva to Be Divided Into 3 Units Under New Plan, Figaro Reports
- AVV LN : Aveva Ends Talks With Schneider Electric
- CBK GY : Commerzbank Sees ~19% Revenue Growth in Chinese Market in 2016
- DAI GY : Daimler’s Mercedes May Open Factory in Russia: Handelsblatt
- EDF FP : French Power Regulator Says France Interconnection Is Sufficient
- FCC SM : Slim’s Carso Exercises Purchase Option on 9.45M FCC Shrs
- HMB SS : H&M Sales Miss Estimates in May, 2Q
- ITX SM : Inditex 1Q Ebitda, Net Beat Estimates
- ITX SM : Inditex 1Q Is a Standout In a Tough Market, Bernstein Says
- KU2 GY : ABB Said to Likely Consider Rival Bid if Solicited by Kuka: WSJ
- ORA FP : Orange Could Make Moves to Boost Clout in Europe, CEO Says
- UG FP : CMA CGM, PSA in Container Terminal JV in Singapore
- RTN LN : Restaurant Group Names Barry Nightingale CFO
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce CEO Says Brexit Uncertainty Delaying Investment: BBC
- SU FP : Aveva Ends Talks With Schneider Electric
- TIT IM : Oi CEO Exit Said to Reveal Fight Between Bondholders, Investors
- HO FP : Thales CEO Reiterates Company Seeks 6,000 Hirings
- VOw3 GY : Volkswagen Said to Plan Merging Components Unit, Asset Reviews
- ZC FP : Zodiac’s A350 Cabin Comments Show It Still Has ‘Challenges’: RBC
- ZC FP : Zodiac Maintains Outlook for Current Operating Profit