Asian Mid-session Market Update: MSCI again defers including China A-shares into Emerging Market index
***Economic Data***
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JUNE WESTPAC CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEX: 102.2 V 103.2 PRIOR, M/M: -1.0% V +8.5% PRIOR
- (AU) Australia ANZ Roy Morgan Weekly Consumer Confidence Index: 116.4 v 116.8 prior
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q1 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (NZ$): +1.31B V +0.96BE; first surplus in a year
- (NZ) New Zealand May REINZ median home price +10.3% y/y v +7.7% prior; Home sales y/y 13.6% v +18.4% prior; Home sales 9.8K v 8.6K prior
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 3.7% V 3.8%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY IMPORT PRICE INDEX M/M: +3.5% V -1.8% PRIOR; Y/Y: -5.1% V -7.1% PRIOR
***Index Snapshot (as of 04:30 GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.7%, S&P/ASX -0.4%, Kospi +0.2%, Shanghai Composite +1.5%, Hang Seng +0.4%, Sep S&P500 flat at 2,065
***Commodities/Fixed Income***
- Aug gold -0.1% at $1,286/oz, Jul crude oil -1.4% at $47.81/brl, Jul copper +0.4% at $2.05/lb
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 10,661 tonnes from 10,587 tonnes prior; highest since Dec 2014
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 2.4 tonnes to 898.7 tonnes; highest since Oct 2013
- (US) Weekly API Oil Inventories: Crude: +1.2M v -3.6M prior
- (CN) PBOC to inject CNY65B in 7-day reverse repos
- USD/CNY: (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.6001 V 6.5791 PRIOR; weakest Yuan setting since 2011
- (CN) China MoF sells 7-yr bonds at 2.95% v 2.96%e
- JGB: (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) offers to buy ¥350B in JGBS with 1-3 yr maturities; ¥440B with 3-5 yr; ¥220B with 10-25 yr; ¥140B over 25 yrs
***Market Focal Points/FX***
- Asian equity markets are mixed as traders squared some of the recent bearish bets going into Wednesday's FOMC and BOJ policy decisions. Stocks were initially lower - particularly the indices in Shanghai and Hong Kong - after Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) again postponed including the A-Shares in its emerging market index. Similarly, risk-off flows initially translated into gains in JPY at the expense of AUD and NZD before a reversal later in the day. USD/JPY hit a low around 105.95 early on but then bounced to 106.30, while AUD/USD and NZD/USD rose 40pips and 50pips from the lows respectively above 0.7370 and 0.7020.
- Momentum in expectations that MSCI will finally include A-shares in its emerging market index had been building as of late given some of the financial regulatory reform in China over the past 12 months in fact, Goldman Sachs assigned about a 70% probability of inclusion. However, for the 3rd year in a row, MSCI deferred that inclusion while acknowledging the improvements in market accessibility. Among the reason behind the decision, MSCI said the "20% monthly repatriation limit remains a significant hurdle for investors that may be faced with redemptions such as mutual funds and must be satisfactorily addressed", adding that local exchanges' pre-approval restrictions on launching financial products are also unaddressed. MSCI did suggest however that A-shares would remain on 2017 review list and that a potential off-cycle announcement on A shares cannot be ruled out. After the decision, securities regulator CSRC said the decision to delay including A-share won't affect capital market reform. Similarly, state researcher Zhang said China should not make major changes to financial regulation framework because of downside risks remaining in the near term.
- Outside of the aftermath of MSCI decision, PBoC said the current FX reserve levels are generally within appropriate range, promising to fend off potential risks in managing fx reserves. Recall the latest data on FX reserves saw the first decline in 3 months to the and lowest level since Dec 2011 at $3.19T. Separately, China Commerce Ministry said retail sales are expected to stabilize for the balance of this year after May retail sales data hit a 1-year low at 10.0% y/y increase. Traders are still awaiting the latest money supply and new Yuan loans data from China expected later today.
- Economic data was again centered in Australia, where June Westpac Consumer Confidence growth came off multi-year highs seen last month. Westpac economist said that "after the 8.5% surge in May, the small decline in June mostly represents a consolidation at improved levels" as consumers digested the surprise RBA rate cut last month which had served as a catalyst to the rally. S&P report on Australia housing speculated that a sharp price correction is unlikely given some "buoyant investment flows" in the property space.
- With just over a week to the Brexit referendum, latest Comres poll put 46% in favor of staying in EU vs 45% for leaving (prior 52% for staying in EU, 41% for leaving), and researchers at Oxford University put about a 40% chance that the vote will be in favor of Leave. Fin Min Osborne remained vocal backing EU membership, estimating a £30B financial hole to UK economy in the event of a Leave victory and forcing an emergency budget within weeks of the poll.
***Equities***
US equities / ADRs:
- BOBE: Reports Q4 $0.48 v $0.42e, R$345.6M v $345Me; -6.1% afterhours
- HCLP: Offers 3M common units through Credit Suisse (~8% of shares outstanding); -6.5% afterhours
- BBBY: Purchases One Kings Lane, Inc; Terms not disclosed, purchase price not material; Transaction to be slightly dilutive to FY16 EPS
Notable movers by sector:
- Consumer discretionary: Gome Electrical Appliances Holdings 493.HK +2.3% (share buyback); Skyworth Digital 751.HK +10.0% (annual result); Tsuruha Holdings 3391.JP +8.5% (annual result)
- Consumer staples: A2 Milk ATM.NZ +13.4% (raises guidance)
- Industrials: Xinyi Glass Holding Co 868.HK -2.8% (guidance); Virgin Australia VAH.AU -12.9% (equity raising); Takata Corp 7312.JP +1.3% (divestment speculation):
- Energy: Xinyi Solar 968.HK -1.0% (guidance); Senex Energy SXY.AU -1.7% (affirms guidance)