>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

Gapping up: TXMD +24.8%, DRYS +10%, COUP +9.5%, NVLS +5.9%, P +5.3%, BOBE +4.8%, ACHN +3.6%, RBS +3.4%, HSBC +3.4%, DB +2.5%, HOME +2.5%, BLCM +2.1%, PBR +1.7%, CS +1.7%, BCS +1.7%, SAN +1.7%, LYG +1.3%, BBVA +1.3%, IRTC +1.2%, BP +1.1%, AZO +1.1%, VOD +0.9%, AZN +0.8%

Gapping down: SB -17%, LXRX -12.5%, FET -7.3%, MIK -6.4%, STWD -4.4%, SBSI -3.8%, TEVA -3.7%, ASUR -3.7%, SGY -3.7%, RCII -3%, REI -2.9%, SIEN -2.8%, BBL -2.7%, GGB -2.6%, BHP -2.6%, MTL -2.5%, RIO -1.9%, LOGI -1.8%, X -1.6%, ZG -1.5%, GFI -1.3%, VALE -1.3%, FCX -1.3%, CVX -1.2%, MT -1.1%, NKE -1%, CLF -0.9%, CONN -0.9%

>>> What to look at today - 6th of December 2016

Find attached a calendar of Holidays

Dow +0.24% S&P +0.58% Nasdaq +1.01% Russell +1.79%
US mkt closed higher. Equity indices enjoyed an upbeat start, rising alongside European stocks, even though the results of the constitutional reform referendum in Italy will invite political uncertainty going forward. On Sunday, Italian citizens voted 59-41 to reject a proposal that would have reformed the country's Senate. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi offered his resignation, but Italian President Sergio Mattarella reportedly asked Mr. Renzi to delay his departure until after the approval of a budget for 2017. It is currently unclear what impact the results of the referendum will have on rescue plans for Banks. Italian stocks erased the bulk of their losses by the close while European sovereign debt retreated with Italy's 10-yr yield spiking nine basis points to 2.00%. Five of six cyclical sectors displayed relative strength from the start, which kept the benchmark index well above its flat line throughout the day. volume were just below average a 915mil shares. US After Hours COUP +7%, BOBE +6% following earnings/guidance... SB -13%, SBSI -9%, FET -5% following offering news. ed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Favor gradually higher rates if growth keeps up; financial market conditions are broadly appropriate. Fed's Evans (dove, non-voter): expects US growth in H2 to be much stronger than H1 2016. Asia indices rally, taking cue from US markets shrugging off Italian political uncertainty following Sunday referendum. USD majors in narrow ranges, while commodity/EM currencies (CNH, MXN, SGD) retreat against the dollar after several days of strength.

Nikkei +0.47% Hang Seng +0.69% CSI -0.30% Shanghai -0.16%

Eur$ 1.0756 CNH 6.8780 CNY 6.8764 JPY 113.81 GBP 1.2754 CHF 1.0063 RUB 63.80 |WTI 51.45-0.66%

S&P -0.06% EuroStoxx +0.20% Dax +0.02% FTSE -0.10% SMI +0.08%

Macro
Schaeuble Real Estate Bubble Law Draws Opposition: Handelsblatt
S&P 500 Seen Reaching 2,343 in 2017 at Ned Davis With Risk in 2H

Keep an eye on :
- ABN NA : ABN Amro Agrees to Sell Asia/Mideast Private Banking to LGT
- ATLN VX : Sanofi Said to Explore Counterbid for Actelion Amid J&J Talks
- AMZN US : Germany Probes Tax Misuse of Amazon Marketplace: Handelsblatt
- BMPS IM : Paschi Says Capital Increase to Be as Much as EU1.03b
- BMPS IM : Paschi Executives to Meet ECB on Capital Plan Today: Il Sole
- BMW GY : BMW to Test Fully-Computerized Vehicles in Munich Next Year: SZ
- BVI FP : Bureau Veritas Plans to Hire 10,000 Globally in 2017: Figaro
- FWB IM : Fastweb Buys Tiscali Business for EU45m, Leases Mobile Spectrum
- GNFT FP : France’s Genfit Said to Consider a Sale as It Weighs Options
- ITX SM : Inditex’s Main Online Units Have 39% Sales Increase: El Pais
- MAERSKB DC : Oil Bosses See Maersk Withdrawing From Norway North Sea: Borsen
- SAN FP : Sanofi Said to Explore Counterbid for Actelion Amid J&J Talks
- STL NO : Statoil Won’t Fly Super Puma Helicopters Again: Aftenbladet
- FP FP : Total, ExxonMobil, Cnooc, Pemex Win Mexico Deep-Water Blocks
- WOS LN : Wolseley 1Q LFL Revenue Growth 1.8%; Sees FY Profit In Line

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & DOwngrades - 6th of December 2016

>>> Up
*EFG International Raised to Buy at Citi, PT CHF6.40
*Enav Raised to Overweight at Barclays, PT EU3.90
*Engie Raised to Buy at HSBC, PT EU13.60
*Gas Natural Raised to Hold at Investec, PT EU16
*HSBC Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, PT 645p
*Infineon Raised to Buy at Citi
*OneSavings Bank Raised to Outperform at RBC, PT 355p
*Redrow Raised to Buy at Canaccord, PT 480p
*Rexel Raised to Buy at Citi
*SocGen Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT EU49.20
*UBS Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT CHF20

>>> Down
*Berendsen Cut to Sell at Stifel, PT 710p
*Coca-Cola European Cut to Hold at Stifel, PT EU32
*Electrolux Cut to Neutral at Citi
*Legal & General Cut to Underperform at Macquarie
*Mitchells & Butlers Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
*Total Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank
*Tullow Cut to Sell at Goldman

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*Altice Rated New Buy at Oddo & Cie, PT EU23.50
*Bacanora Minerals Rated New Buy at Liberum, PT 120p
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT 250p
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Sector Perform at RBC, PT 242p
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Buy at Goldman, PT 270p
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Overweight at JPMorgan, PT 271p
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Buy at BofAML, PT 280p
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt, PT 300p
*Merlin Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt, PT 510p
*Natixis Rated New Neutral at UBS, PT EU4.40
*ConvaTec Group Rated New Buy at UBS, PT 300p
*Yoox Net-a-Porter Rated New Outperform at Macquarie, PT EU33.50

>>> Call
>> Stock
**INFINEON ADDED TO CITI FOCUS LIST, EXPERIAN REMOVED
*MERCK KGAA EXITS ALPHA LIST AT BANKHAUS LAMPE

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: RBA with another neutral hold despite growing expectations of negative Q3 GDP print tomorrow

***US Session Highlights***
- (US) Fed's Dudley (dove, FOMC voter): Favor gradually higher rates if growth keeps up; financial market conditions are broadly appropriate
- (US) Fed's Evans (dove, non-voter): expects US growth in H2 to be much stronger than H1 2016 - comments in Chicago
- (US) NOV FINAL MARKIT SERVICES PMI: 54.6 V 54.9E (lowest since Sep 2016); new orders highest since Aug 2015
- (US) NOV ISM NON-MANUFACTURING COMPOSITE: 57.2 V 55.5E (suggests service sector gaining momentum into year's final months)

***US markets on close: Dow +0.2%, S&P500 +0.6%, Nasdaq +1.0%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Financials
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Industrials
- Biggest gainers: AA +7.5%, FSLR +7.3%, RRC +5.7%, SWN +5.3%, VLO +5.0%
- Biggest losers: AET -3.0%, BIIB -2.4%, HUM -2.3%, ALK -2.0%, WDC -2.0%
- At the close: VIX 12.1 (-2.0pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.12% (flat), 10-yr 2.39% (flat), 30-yr 3.06% (-1bps)

***US movers afterhours***
- TXMD: Announces positive top-line results from pivotal phase 3 replenish trial in postmenopausal women with moderate to severe vasomotor symptoms (vms) treated with tx-001hr; +20.8% afterhours
- BOBE: Reports Q2 $0.56 ex-items v $0.44e, R$316M v $319Me (2 est); working with JPM to review and evaluate potential opportunities for value creation; +4.8% afterhours
- KMI: Guides FY17 distributable cash flow $4.46B v $4.7B FY16e; Adj EBITDA $7.2B unch y/y; +2.2% afterhours
- Z: To offer $400M of convertible senior notes due 2021; -1.5% afterhours
- TEVA: Appoints Dipankar Bhattacharjee as President and CEO Global Generic Medicines Group in Q1 2017; Affirms FY16 outlook; -3.5% afterhours

***Politics***
- (US) Vice President-elect Pence: Some cabinet decisions have been made today; Announcements coming in days ahead - press
- (FR) France PM Valls confirms will run for France presidency as Socialist candidate; will step down as PM tomorrow to begin his campaign - press

***Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press***
- Asia indices rally, taking cue from US markets shrugging off Italian political uncertainty following Sunday referendum. USD majors in narrow ranges, while commodity/EM currencies (CNH, MXN, SGD) retreat against the dollar after several days of strength.
- Number of analysts revise their forecasts for Aussie Q3 GDP data (due tomorrow) to contract to -0.2% after latest Current Account data.
- RBA holds rates unchanged as widely expected (analysts were unanimous); Policy statement relatively unchanged - global economy growing at slower pace, labor markets are mixed with strong growth in part-time sector, inflation to remain low for some time on subdued labor costs; RBA acknowledges likely slowing in growth at 2016-end before a pick-up in 2017. AUD/USD in a narrow 15-pip range post decision around $0.7450
- Japan press speculates govt is looking at issuing mid-year deficit bonds for the first time since the GFC / Lehman shock in 2009.
- Yuan fix set at strongest level since mid-Nov, with the biggest margin of increase since June.
- NZD falls below $0.71 in a technical move ahead of tomorrow's dairy trade auction.

China
- (CN) JPMorgan chief China economist: Economic growth benefited from substantial progress made in cutting steel and coal industry capacity - Chinese press
- (CN) China should boost quotas for QFII, RQFII, and QDII - Chinese press

Japan
- (JP) Japan govt said to consider additional ¥1.9T in deficit bonds - Japan press
- (JP) Japan Lower House of Diet passes bill to legalize casinos - press
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Aso: Fx is a big reason for the fall in tax Rev; do not know about any increased issuance of JGBs

Australia
- (AU) Westpac lowers Australia Q3 GDP forecast to -0.2% from +0.2% following weak net exports data - press
- (AU) NAB now sees Australia Q3 GDP at -0.2% q/q
- (AU) Nomura forecasts Q3 GDP at -0.2% q/q v +0.2% consensus

***Asia Key economic data:***
- (AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH RATE TARGET AT 1.50%; AS EXPECTED
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q3 CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE (A$): -11.4B V -13.5BE; NET EXPORTS OF GDP: -0.2% V 0.0%E
- (JP) JAPAN OCT LABOR CASH EARNINGS Y/Y: 0.1% (3-month high) V 0.2%E ; REAL EARNINGS (EX-INFLATION) Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.2%E
- (NZ) New Zealand Nov ANZ Truckometer Heavy (heavy traffic) M/M: +4.0% v -0.4% prior
- (UK) NOV BRC LFL SALES VALUE Y/Y: 0.6% V 1.7%E (3rd straight increase)

***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:30ET)***
- Nikkei +0.5%, Hang Seng +0.8%, Shanghai Composite +0.1%, ASX200 +0.7%, Kospi +1.3%
- Equity Futures: S&P e-mini -0.1%, Dax -0.1%, FTSE100 -0.3%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:30ET):***
- EUR 1.0750-1.0770; JPY 113.50-113.95; AUD 0.7440-0.7480; NZD 0.7090-0.7160
- Feb Gold +0.2% at 1,175/oz; Jan Crude Oil +0.5% at $51.27/brl; Mar Copper -0.8% at $2.68/lb
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall 0.3 tonnes to 869.9 tonnes; 14th straight decline; lowest since May 31st
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8575 V 6.8870 PRIOR; Strongest Yuan fix since Nov 15th; biggest margin of increase since June

***Asia equities / Notables / movers by sector***
- Consumer discretionary: ABC-MART 2670.JP -3.9% (Nov result); Hyundai Department Store Co 069960.KR +0.9% (Deutsche Bank cuts to hold); Nine Entertainment Co Holdings NEC.AU +2.9% (in talks with Fairfax); G8 Education GEM.AU +3.9% (Moelis raised to buy); Nippon Television Holdings 9404.JP +3.5% (Mitsubishi raised to overweight)
- Financials: Evergrande Real Estate Group 3333.HK +0.8% (Nov result); Mitsui & Co 8031.JP +2.4% (Goldman Sachs raised to buy)
- Industrials: Geely Automobile Holdings 175.HK +1.8% (Nov result); Downer EDI DOW.AU -0.3% (Credit Suisse cuts to underperform)
- Technology: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co 2330.TW +2.2% (to increase chip production); NCsoft Corp 036570.KR +2.3% (Ebest Investment says too early to judge new game); Samsung Electronics 005930.KR +2.2% (CEO comment on involvement with Choi scandal and Note 7)
- Materials: Whitehaven Coal WHC.AU +0.7% (Ord Minnett Raised WHC.AU to Accumulate); OJI Holdings Corp 3861.JP -1.2% (Daiwa cuts to neutral)
- Energy: Origin Energy ORG.AU +2.7% (divestment)
- Healthcare: Japara Healthcare JHC.AU +9.9% (Macquarie raised to outperform)

>>> US Close Dow +0.24% S&P +0.58% Nasdaq +1.01% Russell +1.79%


Closing Market Summary: Cyclical Sectors Lead Stocks Higher

The stock market began the week on a higher note with the Nasdaq Composite (+1.0%) showing relative strength on Monday. The tech-heavy index settled ahead of the S&P 500 (+0.6%), but both marked their highs during the initial hour, spending the afternoon inside narrow ranges.

Equity indices enjoyed an upbeat start, rising alongside European stocks, even though the results of the constitutional reform referendum in Italy will invite political uncertainty going forward. On Sunday, Italian citizens voted 59-41 to reject a proposal that would have reformed the country's Senate. Prime Minister Matteo Renzi offered his resignation, but Italian President Sergio Mattarella reportedly asked Mr. Renzi to delay his departure until after the approval of a budget for 2017. It is currently unclear what impact the results of the referendum will have on rescue plans for Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

Italian stocks erased the bulk of their losses by the close while European sovereign debt retreated with Italy's 10-yr yield spiking nine basis points to 2.00%.

U.S. Treasuries also faced selling during the European session, but trends reversed shortly after focus shifted to the North American session. Treasuries spent the day in a slow climb off their lows with the 10-yr note ending flat. The benchmark yield settled at 2.39% while selling in the 2-yr note pushed up its yield two basis points to 1.12%.

Five of six cyclical sectors displayed relative strength from the start, which kept the benchmark index well above its flat line throughout the day. Sectors like financials (+1.2%) and consumer discretionary (+1.0%) rebounded from Friday's underperformance while energy (+0.7%) posted a solid gain even though crude oil reversed into the close. The energy component surrendered a 1.0% gain to settle higher by 0.2% at $51.79/bbl. Oil continued sliding in electronic trade and showed a 1.1% decline ($51.10/bbl) as the stock market closed for the day. The late afternoon decline unfolded even though the U.S. Dollar Index (100.13, -0.64) fell 0.6%.

The top-weighted technology sector (+1.0%) also had a strong showing with chipmakers displaying broad strength that sent the PHLX Semiconductor Index higher by 1.2%. This contributed to the relative strength in the Nasdaq Composite while biotechnology provided another measure of support, but the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 271.93, +1.47) narrowed its gain to 0.5% by the close. Biotech names fared better than the health care sector, which shed 0.2%.

Like health care, the industrial space (-0.1%) lagged throughout the day, keeping the S&P 500 below its opening high. Dow components Caterpillar (CAT 94.45, -0.69) and General Electric (GE 31.11, -0.23) weighed, falling near 0.7% apiece. Airlines also pressured the sector with Alaska Air (ALK 83.12, -1.71) and Southwest Airlines (LUV 47.07, -0.84) ending with respective losses of 2.0% and 1.8%. Other transport stocks held up better, sending the Dow Jones Transportation Average higher by 0.4%.

Today's participation was just below average as 915 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Economic data was limited to ISM Services:

  • The ISM Services Index rose to 57.2 in November from 54.8 in October while the consensus expected an increase to 55.6
    • This report marked a 12-month high for the series, reaching levels from October 2015

Tomorrow, Q3 Productivity (consensus 3.3%), Unit Labor Costs (consensus 0.2%), and October Trade Balance (consensus -$41.80 billion) will be released at 8:30 ET while October Factory Orders consensus 2.5%) will cross the wires at 10:00 ET.

  • Russell 2000 +17.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +10.3% YTD
  • S&P 500 +7.9% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +6.0% YTD

>>> US After Hours Summary: COUP +7%, BOBE +6% following earnings/guid

 Hours Summary: COUP +7%, BOBE +6% following earnings/guidance... SB -13%, SBSI -9%, FET -5% following offering news

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: COUP +6.6%, BOBE +5.6% (also continues to evaluate all options to create shareholder value and is working with J.P. Morgan to review and evaluate potential opportunities for value creation; no formal timeline for the completion of the review), KMI +1.4% (expects to generate $4.46 bln of distributable cash flow for 2017)

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: TXMD +18.5% (announces 'positive' top-line results from its pivotal phase 3 Replenish Trial of TX-001HR; trial met primary endpoints), ACHN +4.5% (light volume; announces data presented at American Society of Hematology Meeting demonstrate potential advantages of factor D inhibition for the treatment of complement alternative pathway-mediated diseases), NVLS +2.9% (CFO discloses the purchase of 24K shares), SIEN +2.7% (confirms receipt of FDA pre-market supplement approval for four new breast implant styles in both shaped and round as well as additional profile and sizing options for nine existing implant offerings), BLCM +2.1% (presents clinical results to date of BPX-501 pediatric program and provides regulatory update)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: N/A

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: SB -13.3% (to offer common stock), LXRX -8.7% (announces top-line results today from a Phase 2 clinical study of sotagliflozin conducted by Lexicon in collaboration with JDRF), SBSI -8.6% (announces an underwritten public offering of approx. $60 mln of its common stock), FET -5.2% (announces a registered underwritten public offering by the co & certain funds affiliated with SCF Partners and Tinicum; 3.5 mln shares are being offered by the co and 3.5 mln shares are being offered by the selling stockholders), TEVA -4% (names Dipankar Bhattacharjee as President and CEO, Global Generic Medicines Group, effective today; reaffirms FY16 forecast), ASUR -3.7% (announces public offering of common stock), RCII -3% (CFO Guy Constant resigns), STWD -2.8% (commences 17.8 mln common stock offering)

WSJ : Italian Dilemma: To Bend the Rules or Break the Banks

Italian Dilemma: To Bend the Rules or Break the Banks
For Europe’s banks, it is now all about the politics

For Europe’s banks, it is now all about the politics. Italy voted “No” in a referendum that became a protest against the government and the restrictions of European Union membership.

To stop this drama turning into a crisis, eurozone politicians may have to allow Italy to use taxpayers’ money to shore up its sickest bank, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

This will be deeply uncomfortable because it lays bare the lack of trust in economic competence between eurozone countries and risks reviving fears about government exposure to local banking systems.


Those fears dogged the single currency five years ago. This time it is less a matter of survival—although many eurozone banks need more capital—than one of getting over the final hurdle of higher post-crisis capital requirements.

European banks’ very weak valuations illustrate how difficult and expensive it will be for some of the bloc’s largest lenders, like UniCredit and Deutsche Bank, to get the equity they need.

The first test is Monte dei Paschi. Italy’s “No” vote looks likely to derail its €5 billion ($5.3 billion)-capital raising plan because the uncertainty created by the resignation of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi will stop investors backing the deal—unless Italy can rapidly form a new, stable government.

On Monday, MPS’s bankers are trying to decide whether the deal will work.

If the bank fails to get funds from private investors, it will have to impose losses on bondholders to cover the capital it needs. That will mean some public money is used, because about half of MPS’s bonds are held by retail investors whose losses would be politically and economically painful.

Retail investors could be protected by a compensation scheme, or by Italy putting money straight into MPS in a precautionary recapitalization. This latter move is allowed under stiffer new European rules on bank bailouts, but only under certain conditions. The key one is that the money mustn’t cover known recent or likely losses, which is a problem at MPS because much of the money it needs is to fund provisions on bad loans that European regulators have demanded it takes.

There is however a financial-stability get-out clause behind most new European banking rules. That lets politicians get around the letter of the law when it threatens severe banking or economic turmoil.

This is where the politics counts. Turmoil for Italy would further provoke the anti-Europe feeling that has foiled Mr. Renzi. But allowing a bailout of the bank risks opening the door to public money being used elsewhere while eurozone governments are struggling to get their economies firing, keep voters happy and meet the bloc’s strict financing rules.

Italy’s largest lender, UniCredit, is waiting to launch a €13 billion-capital raising program and it isn’t alone among European banks in needing fresh equity.

A calming, technocratic administration in Italy could yet see MPS’s plan go ahead. If not, eurozone leaders will need to make some hard political choices—and quickly.