TheChek News Flow

Share of goods in UK exports falls to record low

The trend in values for the two main segments of the economy has diverged in the past two years

The share of goods in total UK exports has fallen to a record low after drops in their value over the past two years, in a sign of Britain’s shift towards services as the economy absorbs the impact of Brexit and oil price moves.

Goods made up 40.8 per cent of total UK exports in the year to May, down from about two-thirds in 2000 and the lowest-ever figure, according to a Financial Times analysis of data from the Office for National Statistics.

In the same period, the value of goods exports fell by an annual rate of 5.4 per cent, extending a trend that began in 2023.

By contrast, services exports hit a record 59.2 per cent of total UK exports and their value surged by 7.3 per cent in the 12 months to May, marking an acceleration of the sector’s long-term growth in prominence.

“Brexit is the main cause of the country’s manufacturing malaise,” said John Springford, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “Services exports have performed much better because global demand for traded services has been rising, playing to Britain’s strengths.”

The decline in UK goods exports was “troubling” compared with other advanced economies, he said, noting that, adjusted for inflation, they were down sharply on 2019 levels, before the Covid-19 pandemic.

Despite strong growth in services, UK real-terms trade volumes rose by just 1 per cent between 2019 and 2024, compared with growth of 8 per cent in both the G7 and EU27, according to the CER.

Stripping out prices, goods exports have been especially poor: their volumes plunged to the lowest in 15 years in the year to April and remained around that level in the year to May, ONS data shows.

Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer in June set out a new trade strategy focused on boosting services exports, in a bid to tackle Britain’s dismal trade performance over the past decade and grow the economy.

Pointing to the wider economic implications of trade, Springford said “weak” export performance had “constrained growth, curbed tax revenues, and contributes to high government borrowing costs”.

In the wake of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, falls in the price of oil hit the value of UK oil exports.

But the value of goods exports excluding oil were also down in the 12 months to May compared with the same period a year earlier, with cars, chemicals and machinery among the sectors reporting declines.

Thomas Sampson, associate professor of international trade at the London School of Economics, said that while Brexit “may bear some responsibility” for the decline in goods exports and strength of services exports, it could also reflect “simply a continuation of the long-run transformation of the UK economy away from manufacturing and into services”.

The shift could have been accelerated by energy price rises after the Ukraine war and reductions in the cost of exporting services helped by more remote working since Covid, he added.

The value of goods and services exports rebounded between 2021 and mid-2023, boosted by a combination of pent-up demand and less supply chain disruption when the economy reopened after the pandemic.

The rebound was also helped by the UK becoming a crucial transit point for liquefied natural gas and other gas imports into Europe after Russia invaded Ukraine, and the impact of long-running high inflation.

But the trend in values for the two main segments of the economy — services account for 80 per cent of UK GDP — has diverged in the past two years.

In the 12 months to May, the value of car exports fell at an annual rate of 10 per cent, with declines of 9 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively, for mechanical machinery and chemicals.

A 32 per cent plunge in the value of crude oil exports dragged the overall figure lower in the year to the end of May 2025, according to ONS data that was analysed by the Department for Business and Trade on July 18.

In contrast, in the year to March, the value of financial services rose 13 per cent, while other business services, including management consulting and research and development, rose by 5 per cent.

The DBT analysis also showed a drop over the past decade in the share of UK total exports to the EU, down from 44.5 per cent in 2014 to 41 per cent in the year to March.

The ONS in March delayed the release of trade data after it identified an error dating back to 2023, but publication has now resumed. In its monthly updates, the agency has also a warned of a “structural break” in figures on UK-EU trade, following changes to data collection since Brexit.

In its most recent outlook in March, the Office for Budget Responsibility said it expected “continued weak growth in trade volumes over the coming years”.

This in part reflected “the continuing impact of Brexit, which we expect to reduce the overall trade intensity of the UK economy by 15 per cent in the long term”, the fiscal watchdog added.

Stronger services exports have widened the UK’s services trade surplus, while the goods trade deficit has deepened.

In the 12 months to May, the UK had a trade in goods deficit of £239.4bn, up from £206.9bn the year before, according to official data. In the same period, the surplus in trade in services rose from £183.7bn to £193.9bn.

UK exports to the EU in services that have faced trade barriers since Brexit have declined by 16 per cent relative to other bilateral trade flows, according to recent research by LSE economists Shania Bhalotia, Swati Dhingra and Danyal Arnold.

Starmer — who last week finalised a trade accord with India — signed a “reset” deal with the EU in May aimed at easing trade barriers and deepening ties, although some industry groups have called on him to go further.

William Bain, head of trade policy at the British Chambers of Commerce, said there had been “significant volatility in trade policy and geopolitics” over the past year but that services had achieved “sustained growth”.

“Removing non-tariff barriers and staying competitive on tariffs will help the UK maintain goods exports through 2025 and beyond,” he added.

The Department for Business and Trade said: “We recognise that, while services exports are at a record high, there is more we can do to boost goods exports.

“Our trade strategy will slash barriers to trade helping UK firms sell more products in new markets around the world.”

Eni bets on energy transition profits to match oil and gas by 2035

Italian oil major sticks with ‘satellite’ strategy for low-carbon units as others pull back

Italian oil major Eni expects profits from its green businesses to rival those from oil and gas within a decade, in a bold bet that contrasts with a retreat from renewables by Shell and BP after lacklustre returns.

“By 2035, the [operating profit] created by our new companies will balance what is coming from oil and gas, in 2040 it will be more [than oil and gas],” Claudio Descalzi, Eni’s chief executive, told the Financial Times.

The prediction underlines Descalzi’s commitment to Eni’s low-carbon energy businesses even as other oil and gas companies are scaling back and refocusing on fossil fuels.

Earnings from Eni’s oil and gas business are still more than 10 times those from biofuels unit Enilive and renewables division Plenitude, the company’s two standalone transition businesses.

At its results last week, Eni said that operating profit — or earnings before interest and tax — from the two businesses was €598mn in the first half, down 15 per cent on the same period last year. Meanwhile, operating profit from exploration and production and from Eni’s gas and power unit was €6.6bn.

The two subsidiaries, created in 2022 and 2023, are not purely green businesses. Eni chose to combine its growing, but unprofitable, clean energy interests with cash-generating assets that could fund the expansion of the new companies.

“I believe growth is important, but you can also have a bubble. To grow, you have to invest, and your free cash flow is always negative,” explained Descalzi. “Investors can believe you for one, two, three, four years but then bang, it is finished.” 

Enilive combines biofuel refineries with a 5,000-strong petrol station network, while Plenitude integrates renewable power generation and EV charging with residential gas and power sales.

Critically, these hybrid companies — which Eni calls “satellites” — were profitable from the outset and have annual earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation of around €1bn each.

Descalzi has also sold minority stakes in both businesses to private equity investors, including KKR and Energy Infrastructure Partners.

The deals valued the new businesses at a combined €22bn, or almost half Eni’s current market capitalisation. Eni said it had realised about €3.8bn in cash from outside investments into Enilive and Plenitude in the first half of the year. The Italian group has also formed a joint venture with Global Infrastructure Partners, an arm of BlackRock, to run its carbon capture and storage business.

“The capital is there and infrastructure funds are looking for good businesses, but they want to understand what is inside. Growth alone is not enough,” said Descalzi.

“The [energy] transition has been super useful” in allowing him to start to delink Eni’s future from volatile oil prices, he said, adding that other western oil companies need to forget their past and reinvent themselves.  

Eni’s so-called satellite strategy contrasts with Shell and BP, which have slowed renewable investments after struggling to make a return on their sizeable investments.

“The absence of change was somewhat remarkable in a year when many of Eni’s peers scaled back their ambitions and investments in low carbon,” HSBC analysts said after Eni released its latest three-year plan in February.

“The strategy has clearly created value, and oil majors creating value in energy transition is definitely not a given,” said Biraj Borkhataria, analyst at RBC Capital Markets.

“It is a unique way of approaching it, and there is a clear rationale. I was sceptical at first, thinking it was too complicated. But then, can you distil the energy transition into a very simple pitch? It is complicated,” he added.

Other analysts have argued that the satellite strategy, which also includes several oil and gas joint ventures, adds complexity to Eni’s pitch to investors.

These include Var, a listed joint venture in Norway, Ithaca in the UK, Azule, an unlisted joint venture in Angola with BP, and a new joint venture in Asia with the Malaysian energy company Petronas.

Descalzi said these satellites had helped Eni expand without having to do mergers and acquisitions. “We don’t have all this money [compared to other oil majors]. I cannot do M&A. But if I have 100 per cent of a block [in an oil basin], I can exchange barrels,” he said.

Wealth tax uncertainty creates ‘anxiety’ and capital flight risk, advisers warn

Tax experts and wealth managers report rise in enquiries due to concerns over chancellor’s taxation plans

UK wealth managers have reported a surge in enquiries from affluent customers after weeks of uncertainty over a potential wealth tax, prompting some to halt their investment decisions and draw up plans to leave Britain.

Chancellor Rachel Reeves has refused to rule out a possible wealth tax in the October Budget, after former Labour leader Lord Neil Kinnock suggested applying an annual levy of 2 per cent on assets above £10mn.

But business secretary Jonathan Reynolds said on Friday that a wealth tax would be “daft” and those demanding one should “get serious”.

Wealth managers told the Financial Times that Reeves’ refusal to quash the speculation, including at an appearance last week in the House of Lords, has created uncertainty for their wealthy clients’ financial planning.

“Although affluent investors might take comfort if the government is ruling out a wealth tax, speculation will simply focus on other forms, including whether capital gains tax will increase and pensions tax reliefs cut,” said Jason Hollands at Evelyn Partners.

Other tax advisers and wealth managers, including RBC Wealth Management, Quilter Cheviot and Canaccord Wealth, also said they had experienced a rise in enquiries over whether the chancellor will raise taxation.

“Clients are increasingly raising concerns about the possibility of a formal wealth tax, and it’s clear the topic is causing anxiety — especially following years of diminishing allowances and threshold changes,” said Ian Futcher, financial planner at Quilter.

Nimesh Shah, chief executive of tax advisory Blick Rothenberg, said he had seen clients and prospective customers question their plans to leave the UK with some delaying investment decisions. 

“I have one particular example of a family who moved to the UK five years ago wanting to purchase a valuable home, and they have decided against that, because of the threat of a wealth tax,” Shah said.

“They now feel that having such a significant footprint in the UK reduces their flexibility to leave the UK if a wealth tax is introduced,” he added.

Reeves is under pressure to plug a £20bn-plus hole in her Autumn Budget, widened by recent government U-turns on welfare savings. The chancellor has promised that Labour will not increase levies that “working people pay” while refusing to rule out a wealth tax.

Emma Sterland, chief financial planning officer at Evelyn Partners, said that “a wealth tax would likely accelerate the numbers of wealthy people in the UK choosing to move overseas”.

It would be “especially problematic” for clients who are business owners, “many of whom are already going to be adversely impacted by the increase in capital gains tax and the introduction of a limit to business relief next year”, she added.

Hazel Bowen, a senior wealth planner at Canaccord Wealth, said she had seen an “uptick in queries”, adding that those who are considering restructuring their family wealth “would do well to move forward with this as soon as possible”.

A wealth tax could help Reeves plug the fiscal deficit. Arun Advani, associate professor of economics at Warwick university, said even a 1 per cent annual wealth tax on assets worth more than £10mn could raise close to £12bn.

Wealth tax campaign group Tax Justice UK said it could affect 20,000 people — 0.04 per cent of the population.

However, a report by the think-tank Tax Policy Associates said an “unprecedented wealth exit tax” would be required to “stop large-scale capital flight”. 

Fears over such a levy “would trigger a wave of exits” and “deter entrepreneurs and others from coming to the UK”, the think-tank said.

The Office for Budget Responsibility fiscal watchdog warned earlier this month that increased Treasury reliance on a “small and mobile group of taxpayers” was a risk to the public finances.

“Higher earners’ behavioural responses to tax changes are more uncertain and potentially higher than assumed in costings,” it said. 

Evelyn Partners said although a wealth tax was considered in the 1970s, the current chatter made “the level of concern more elevated than at any other time in recent history”.

Chris Etherington, partner at consultancy RSM, said some taxpayers responded to a refusal by government to rule out a capital gains tax change by speeding up a sale of their assets.

A Treasury spokesperson said: “The best way to strengthen public finances is by growing the economy — which is our focus. Changes to tax and spend policy are not the only ways of doing this . . . We are committed to keeping taxes for working people as low as possible, which is why at last autumn’s Budget, we protected working people’s payslips and kept our promise not to raise the basic, higher or additional rates of income tax, employee National Insurance or VAT.”

Aid cuts are driving migrants to Europe, warns UN refugee chief

Filippo Grandi calls on EU countries to support existing asylum facilities in Africa rather than create new schemes

The UN’s top refugee official said “catastrophic” budget cuts to his agency were already driving more migration to Europe, as he urged EU capitals to fund existing asylum facilities in Africa rather than create new systems.

Filippo Grandi, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees, told the Financial Times that there was mounting evidence of Sudanese moving north towards Europe rather than staying in Sudan or neighbouring Chad, where many had found support previously.

“The budget cuts that are imposed on us by donors are catastrophic also from the point of view of how you manage these flows,” Grandi said, adding that ignoring the developments in African countries was “a big strategic mistake”.

“There is no doubt in my mind that people are already moving from Chad to Libya — Sudanese refugees,” Grandi said, referring to one of the migrant routes towards Europe. “Give more assistance to states where people are ready to stay before going back home. You solve a lot of your problems by doing that.”

The UNHCR’s budget has been drastically reduced after US President Donald Trump cut his country’s funding from $2bn to about $390mn this year. But European countries such as France, Italy and Germany have also cut support, compounding a crisis. The UN agency has let go of a third of its staff and put programmes worth $1.4bn on hold.

Faced with a backlog of asylum cases and rising anti-immigration sentiment, many EU countries have sought to externalise parts of their asylum systems, including by screening applicants in countries outside the bloc.

Such schemes, driven by countries with hardline stances such as Denmark and Italy, have been controversial, and previous efforts by the UK to establish asylum facilities in Rwanda failed over human rights concerns.

Grandi said it would be a “much better investment” to spend money in countries where there were large refugee populations already that were ready to stay, such as Chad, Iran or Kenya.

The number of people travelling to Europe via Libya has recently increased, and EU countries are keen to give the Libyan authorities more funding to prevent people from crossing the Mediterranean. But efforts to co-operate with the Libyan authorities and the rival armed groups that control part of the territory have been fraught.

The EU has sealed several agreements with African countries to halt immigration and is now working on further “solutions” involving non-EU countries. Proposals include sending rejected asylum seekers to so-called “return hubs” in countries that are not their home, or screening asylum seekers who have been rescued in the Mediterranean in northern African countries rather than in Europe.

Grandi said his agency was willing to participate in such schemes if proper safeguards were in place, including that European countries maintained their responsibility for the people in question. This was not the case with the UK’s Rwanda scheme.

“If it is dumping the responsibilities of people that are seeking asylum in Europe entirely on the country selected, then I think it would be a bit more problematic,” he said.

“If it is helping out with a system that offers sufficient guarantees and respect of international law, maybe yes.”

But, he added: “Let’s be realistic. You have to find a country that is willing to do it. I’m not very optimistic that you have countries queueing up.”

The UNHCR would also have difficulty working in some of the countries Europe is eyeing for closer co-operation on migration. Libya, for instance, was “not a country where we could have such an arrangement”, said Grandi.

He also said he was concerned about the “situation in Tunisia”, another country with which the EU has clinched a migration deal and which some people want to co-operate more closely with despite the government’s crackdown on migrants.

UNHCR was not allowed to screen people for asylum in Tunisia any more after a government decision, Grandi said. “We know that there’s been pushbacks [of migrants] to Libya, to Algeria, and that there is a difficult environment for refugees and migrants,” he added.

Grandi urged European governments to co-ordinate with the agency in order to make sure that external asylum arrangements could function under international law. “Consult with us when you are elaborating. There are windows of opportunity to do some of these innovative things,” he said.

The numbers making the rounds are big. But not all the spluttering is justified

What’s a billion or two, or 10 even, between friendly investors? Heathrow airport will this week publish detailed plans for a privately financed third runway. Rumours and guesstimates run as high as £60bn. The world’s most expensive airport — a regular airline gripe — should assume the brace position for an onslaught of headlines and incredulity.

British sensitivity is extremely high when it comes to infrastructure investment. Between the debacle of the pared back High Speed Rail 2 plans, which are now expected to cost £80bn, and the long-running debate over nationalising Thames Water, whose private owners loaded it with unsustainable debt, trust is low in the management skills of both officials and the private sector when it comes to public goods. 

Heathrow, whose largest shareholder is French private equity group Ardian, has already come under fire this month after submitting a separate £10bn investment proposal to its regulator. Covering plans for the five years from 2027, Heathrow’s backers would invest £2bn in fresh capital. Airlines — for which read their customers, mostly — would face a 17 per cent increase in the average landing charge per passenger over that time. The spend, Heathrow says, would include a big expansion in terminal space and an increase in passenger capacity of 10mn, or about 12 per cent from 2025 targets. Airlines have called the costs excessive. 

The numbers making the rounds are big. But not all the spluttering is justified. Airport expansions don’t come cheap. Dallas Forth Worth last year announced a $9bn upgrade plan, promising a big transformation. New York’s JFK is in the middle of a $19bn redevelopment, pledging sparking new terminals and snazzy streamlined processes. Singapore’s Changi airport, regularly voted the world’s best, is getting a new runway and an additional terminal for some S$13bn (£8bn). These plans look less pricey than Heathrow’s, but these airports are not as constrained as by space and the need to build up or tunnel down. 

Heathrow’s investors received their first dividend this year since the Covid-19 pandemic. The airport has held off confirming any further payouts as it waits for regulatory input on its spending plans. The most impressive number in its first-half report was that 98 per cent of passengers spent less than five minutes waiting at security.

No entertaining holiday or business travel stories start with a saunter through check-in, security and boarding. But airport headlines don’t just have to be about things that go wrong, either. The success of the cross-London express Elizabeth Line, albeit two decades in the building and billions over budget, shows big transport projects can still wow for the right reasons. Would that Heathrow, whether it spends £10bn or multiples of that with third runway approval, ends up following that example.

Exclusive negotiation period between CK Hutchison and consortium ended on July 27

A deadline for exclusive talks on a US$23 billion sale of global port stakes by Hong Kong tycoon Li Ka-shing’s CK Hutchison Holdings passed without a deal on Sunday, with analysts expecting complex negotiations to be extended amid intense US-China geopolitical rivalry.

The controversial transaction involved CK Hutchison selling stakes in 43 ports, including two at either end of the Panama Canal, to a consortium led by Terminal Investment Limited, an affiliate of the world’s largest container line, MSC, and American asset manager BlackRock.

The July 27 deadline was set 145 days from the company’s March 4 exchange filing that first announced the exclusive negotiation period.

Shipping and legal experts earlier told the Post that they were not optimistic the deal would be signed in its original form by Sunday, saying it could be subject to substantial changes given the political headwinds and regulatory hurdles in both Panama and mainland China.

By midnight on Sunday, Hutchison had not disclosed any information on the deal.

Amid the ongoing trade tensions, a high-level American business delegation was expected to visit Beijing this week, the Post reported exclusively. Sources said the trip would be organised by the US-China Business Council.

Lau Siu-kai, a consultant for the semi-official Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies think tank, said that he expected the deal deadline to be extended.

“If this transaction involves the US-China rivalry and the comprehensive strategic considerations of both countries, then an extension of the negotiations is very natural,” he said.

Lau added that reports about state-owned enterprise China Cosco Shipping Corporation potentially joining the consortium were confusing but the firm was likely to be interested.

“If Cosco has some form of ownership and decision-making power in the ports’ future operations, ensuring that Chinese cargo ships and shipping companies are treated fairly and not discriminated against, then China’s key interests would be protected, and it would give the transaction a green light,” Lau said.

He warned that if China opposed the deal, it was “highly likely to be called off”.

“If Cosco successfully participates, it could indicate that this transaction is part of the overall economic and trade negotiations between China and the US,” Lau said.

“It would also mean the US understands that China attaches great importance to this deal and will not allow the CK Hutchison ports to fall entirely into American hands.”

However, if Cosco could not join or was only a minority shareholder, Lau said: “China is likely to oppose the transaction. It is estimated that CK Hutchison will not sell the ports against China’s opposition, as this would seriously harm its interests on the mainland.”

The best outcome for CK Hutchison was for the US and China to reach an agreement, Lau said, as the company “cannot afford to offend either side”.

DÉCRYPTAGE - Trouver un cycle en état de rouler via ce service parisien relève de la gageure. La hausse des prix des abonnements passe mal.

Des vélos électriques en station à la batterie déchargée, des bicyclettes avec des freins défaillants, des phares qui ne s’allument pas… Les 534.000 abonnés de Velib’ et les utilisateurs plus occasionnels ne peuvent plus compter sur leur moyen de transport habituel. Certes, on n’est pas revenu à la période noire (2018-2019), où le plus gros système de vélos partagés dans le monde, exploité par Smovengo, était totalement à l’arrêt. « Mais les utilisateurs se plaignent d’une détérioration du service », constate Paris en selle, une association de cyclistes dans la capitale.

La cause de cette nouvelle sortie de piste ? « Sur les 20.000 vélos habituellement disponibles, 3000 avaient disparu fin juin, explique Sylvain Raifaud, président de l’Agemob, qui fédère les plus de 70 communes équipées de stations Velib’. Forcément, ceux qui restent sont sursollicités. Seulement 20 % à 30 % étaient conformes à ce qui est demandé dans le contrat. » Ces bicyclettes sorties du circuit ne se sont pas évaporées. Beaucoup d’entre elles ont fait l’objet de vandalisme. Une vidéo montrant des jeunes donnant de violents coups de pied pour décrocher un Velib’ a fait le tour des réseaux sociaux. « Il y a même des tutos sur internet qui expliquent comment arracher un vélo, soupire Sylvain Raifaud. À chaque fois que nous en identifions un, nous portons plainte pour le faire retirer. »

Le phénomène n’était pas anecdotique : fin juin, 640 vélos disparaissaient de cette façon chaque semaine, contre 230 habituellement. Au bout de 24 heures, ils n’étaient plus utilisables. Puisqu’ils ne sont pas dotés de GPS, il faut partir à leur recherche un peu partout en région parisienne. Une pratique frauduleuse a aussi provoqué la disparition de centaines de vélos : des usagers indélicats souscrivent à l’offre V-Libre qui leur permet de payer leur course après l’avoir effectuée à condition de verser au préalable une caution de 300 euros. Dès qu’ils ont décroché un vélo, ils font opposition sur leur engagement de 300 euros et ne rendent pas la bicyclette.

Pression sur Smovengo

Pour en finir avec ces dysfonctionnements, l’Agemob met la pression sur l’exploitant de Velib’. « Je laisse jusqu’au 1er septembre à Smovengo pour remonter à 20.000 vélos », menace Sylvain Raifaud. Contacté, Smovengo n’a pas souhaité réagir. Cet été, l’entreprise déploie des moyens supplémentaires pour répondre à la demande de son donneur d’ordre. Désormais, elle emploie 20 « maraudeurs » chargés de retrouver les Vélib’ abandonnés, contre quatre précédemment. De plus, elle a augmenté de 20 % ses moyens dédiés à la maintenance, pour réparer 900 vélos par semaine. « La situation s’améliore : au cours de la dernière quinzaine, 500 vélos ont été réinjectés dans le système par semaine », se réjouit Sylvain Raifaud. Quant au vandalisme, un travail de prévention sur les cinquante stations les plus exposées a permis de le faire revenir à des taux plus normaux.

Mais, sur le terrain, les clients n’en voient pas encore les effets positifs. Aujourd’hui encore, il est fréquent de ne pas trouver un seul vélo électrique en état de marche dans une station qui en compte dix. Dans ce contexte, l’augmentation des prix décidée par l’Agemob tombe mal. À partir du 12 août, les 190.000 abonnés à la formule la plus large de Vélib’, V-Max, débourseront toujours 9,30 euros par mois. Mais leurs deux premières courses quotidiennes à bicyclette électrique qui étaient gratuites jusqu’à 45 minutes leur coûteront désormais chacune 50 centimes. L’abonnement V-Libre, pour les utilisateurs un peu moins réguliers, va passer de 3,10 euros à 4,30 euros par mois. Et, pour lutter contre la fraude, la formule V-Libre exigera de créditer son compte de 6 euros avant de décrocher son premier vélo.

Même si ces hausses seront plus faibles pour les jeunes et les seniors, les utilisateurs manifestent leur mécontentement. Et les nouveaux services comme la possibilité de laisser son vélo à côté d’une station pleine moyennant 8 euros n’y changent rien. « Vélib’, qui ne tient plus debout depuis plusieurs mois, ne va pas améliorer son offre mais bien augmenter ses tarifs ! C’est une honte », estime Robin sur Twitter. Maxime, lui se montre plus ironique : « Augmenter le tarif alors que le service est au plus mal, vous aimez prendre des risques. »

Un trou abyssal

De fait, des clients pourraient se tourner vers l’un des trois autres opérateurs de vélos partagés : Lime, Dott et bientôt Voi. Ces derniers exploitent au total 18.000 engins dans la capitale. « Nos tarifs resteront cinq fois moins chers », argumente Sylain Raifaud, qui tente d’expliquer les raisons de cette augmentation des prix : « Cela vise à financer un plan pour réduire le nombre de stations pleines ou vides. Il y en avait 75 début juin (NDLR sur 1 500). J’ai fixé à Smovengo l’objectif de n’en avoir plus que 45 en février 2026 et 30 à la fin de l’année prochaine. Avec les hausses tarifaires, l’opérateur disposera de 2,5 millions d’euros par an pour y parvenir. »

Pour réussir l’opération, l’entreprise devra déplacer beaucoup plus de bicyclettes que jusqu’à maintenant. Il lui faudra ajouter vingt camions électriques à sa flotte, qui en comprend déjà trente, et recruter vingt employés. Un nouvel épisode dans l’histoire troublée de Smovengo : alors qu’elle devait proposer à la location 20.000 vélos dès 2018, l’entreprise n’a respecté cet engagement qu’en 2023. Et comme ses bicyclettes ne donnaient pas satisfaction, elle a dû changer toutes les pièces (selle, freins, phare…).

« Si le service était aussi déplorable, le nombre d’abonnés ne progresserait pas chaque année », tempère un observateur. Malgré les dysfonctionnements en cascade, les clients sont, en effet, toujours au rendez-vous, sans doute parce que les prix restent plus attractifs que ceux de Lime et Dott. Mais ses débuts catastrophiques empêcheront Smovengo d’être dans le vert sur la durée de contrat (2018-2032). Missionné par l’Agemob, le cabinet de conseil indépendant Rise avait résumé en 2023 la situation en quelques chiffres : au total, Smovengo devrait perdre 113 millions d’euros. L’entreprise devrait bien gagner 95 millions entre 2022 et 2032, mais cela ne compensera pas le trou abyssal de 209 millions accumulé entre 2018 et 2021. La chronique d’un fiasco économique qui semble inévitable.

Près de Modane, en Savoie, un laboratoire du CNRS enfoui au niveau du tunnel routier tente de capter les éléments d’un monde parallèle à notre Univers. D’ici à la fin de l’année, la « fenêtre » d’observation des chercheurs franco-américains sera dotée de détecteurs plus performants.

Les physiciens ont de drôles d’idées. Ils prétendent avoir ouvert une nouvelle fenêtre sur l’Univers… sous les Alpes. Pas le plus pratique pour voir quelque chose. Et pourtant.

Près de Modane (Savoie), au milieu du tunnel de Fréjus, à 6 kilomètres de l’entrée, entre la France et l’Italie, une porte métallique au gris noirci par les goudrons et plastiques est marquée d’un sens interdit. Un des physiciens en gilet jaune donne le top pour traverser à pied la double voie après le passage de poids lourds et de voitures. Derrière la première porte, une seconde, puis une troisième. Enfin s’ouvre une vaste galerie qui s’enfonce dans la montagne, presque à la verticale de la pointe du Fréjus, qui culmine 1 700 mètres plus haut, à 2 932 mètres.

Sur la droite, une pièce de quelques mètres carrés, aux parois transparentes qui semblent fragiles. A l’intérieur, le prototype d’une « fenêtre » d’observation quasi unique au monde, baptisée « Damic-M ». « On le surnomme “La belle chambre”, LBC, pour “Low Background Chamber” [chambre à bas bruit] », décrit Antoine Letessier-Selvon, chercheur CNRS au Laboratoire de physique nucléaire et hautes énergies (CNRS/Sorbonne Université), le coordinateur scientifique de cette expérience majoritairement américano-française, qui compte une cinquantaine de personnes.

Dans cette chambre, une Belle au bois dormant attend son réveil. Les chercheurs espèrent en effet que des particules mystérieuses, encore jamais vues, vont chatouiller les détecteurs et déclencher l’alarme. Cette substance appartient à la grande et hypothétique famille dite « de la matière noire », celle dont la masse expliquerait la cohésion des galaxies et bien d’autres phénomènes astrophysiques liés à la gravitation. « Pour 1 kilo de matière ordinaire, on aurait cinq fois plus de matière noire », résume Paolo Privitera, de l’université de Chicago, porte-parole de l’expérience. Elle serait donc partout, y compris sous la roche du laboratoire souterrain de Modane, construit par le CNRS au début des années 1980, en même temps que le tunnel routier, pour abriter des expériences de physique des particules.

« Le principe ressemble à la pétanque. Lorsqu’une boule en touche une autre au repos, elle fait bouger cette dernière. La plupart des détecteurs de matière noire marchent ainsi », observe Antoine Letessier-Selvon. Depuis plus de vingt ans, des expériences comme Xenon, CDMS ou PandaX ont rassemblé des tonnes de noyaux lourds (xénon, germanium…) pour espérer voir un de ces atomes bouger sous les coups d’une matière noire assez massive. Sans rien trouver.

Augmenter la masse de détecteurs

Alors le physicien et ses collègues visent une matière noire qui soit 10 à 100 fois moins lourde, et plus légère même qu’un seul proton. « La matière noire que nous cherchons est un cochonnet, voire une balle de ping-pong. Aucune chance qu’elle fasse bouger une boule », poursuit Antoine Letessier-Selvon, auteur de Marcel, Lulu et la matière noire (CNRS éditions, 128 pages, 15 euros).

Ils ont donc changé de méthode et cherchent, en outre, une matière différente, qui appartiendrait à une sorte de monde parallèle, le secteur sombre. C’est une hypothèse de théoricien en vogue, qui imagine toute une collection de particules exotiques qui interagiraient avec leurs propres forces. Et qui pourraient agir autrement que par leur masse sur les constituants de notre Univers. Comme si nous étions envahis de moustiques invisibles nous piquant très rarement. « Nous serons les premiers à regarder à des échelles de masses si petites ! », s’enthousiasme Paolo Privitera.

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Grâce à eux, la perturbation d’un seul électron pourrait être vue. Paolo Privitera montre des images de ce qui pourrait se passer. Sur un fond gris, des tirets blancs bien droits ou de petits « vers » se tortillant signent le passage d’une « grosse » particule ordinaire comme un rayon gamma, ou un rayon cosmique (des particules tombées du ciel). A l’inverse, un point blanc bien net serait le signe du passage de matière noire.

L’une des difficultés a été de mettre au point ces CCD, usinés par Teledyne Dalsa aux Etats-Unis, et leur technique de lecture, à la précision inégalée.

Ces CCD ont une autre propriété : plus il y a de silicium, plus grande est la probabilité qu’un électron soit chatouillé par cette fugace matière noire. D’où la nécessité d’augmenter la masse de détecteurs. Ceux du prototype pesaient 26 grammes. Damic-M passera dans quelques semaines à 350 grammes, répartis en 26 modules de moins de 1 millimètre d’épaisseur. Et le double dans deux ans, si l’expérience se prolonge. « En moins d’une semaine, nous aurons les mêmes résultats qu’en quatre-vingt-dix jours avec LBC », constate Antoine Letessier-Selvon, qui calcule que leur « caméra » fait près de 1 milliard de pixels, soit trois fois moins que la plus grande installée récemment sur le télescope Vera Rubin au Chili.

Diminuer les parasites

L’autre défi majeur est de diminuer les parasites et les faux amis prêts à faire prendre des vessies pour des lanternes. La roche montagneuse en écarte beaucoup, notamment les flux de muons, de gros électrons émis par divers processus astrophysiques. Cinq par jour et par mètre carré tombent sur les détecteurs, soit 1 million de moins qu’en surface. Des protections en polyéthylène et en plomb bloquent les neutrons et les rayonnements émis par des noyaux radioactifs, dont le gaz radon présent dans l’air, qui est donc filtré. Le plomb vient de constructions antiques dont l’âge, environ 2 000 ans, a fait chuter la radioactivité résiduelle. Il a été refondu et débarrassé des impuretés pour être moulé en belles briques noirâtres.

Mais ce n’est pas suffisant. L’enceinte de l’expérience, qui contient les détecteurs sous vide et à basse température, environ – 140 °C, est en cuivre électroformé, une technique très sophistiquée qui évite toute contamination radioactive. Un laboratoire américain spécialisé, le Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, a réalisé cette pièce-clé, qui attend son transfert au fond d’une mine canadienne, protégée des rayons cosmiques qui gâcheraient le soin mis dans cette réalisation. En outre, même les câbles électriques reliant les CCD ont été spécialement conçus pour ne pas induire de pollution dans la détection.

Avec tous ces efforts, les CCD devraient recevoir seulement un faux ami par jour, 20 fois moins que pour le prototype.

Alors, Michelangelo Traina, de l’université de Cantabrie (Espagne), prend grand soin de ces pièces avant l’assemblage final, prévu à la fin de l’année. Il met au point le système d’azote gazeux qui est injecté dans l’armoire contenant les précieux 26 modules. Ces derniers sont arrivés seulement en mai, après avoir voyagé dans un conteneur protégé des rayonnements par 16 tonnes de fer et après avoir patienté, eux aussi, au fond de la mine canadienne du Snolab.

Les chercheurs sont optimistes. Dans une prépublication à paraître dans Physical Review Letters, ils exposent comment, avec leur prototype, ils ont déjà exclu certaines masses de ces particules. « Même pour les spécialistes, ces résultats ont été une surprise », rappelle Antoine Letessier-Selvon.

Damic-M devrait débuter à la fin de l’année, installée dans une pièce spéciale sous la LBC. Puis ils attendront plusieurs mois avant d’« ouvrir la boîte » et de découvrir ses précieuses données, afin de savoir si une fenêtre s’est ouverte sur le monde parallèle qui structure l’Univers.

Reps. Massie and Khanna say they have enough votes to pass a measure seeking more information about Jeffrey Epstein

WASHINGTON—A bipartisan pair of congressmen pushing for the release of files related to Jeffrey Epstein say they will continue to press the issue when Congress returns from an extended summer break, keeping attention on a political land mine for top House Republicans.

Reps. Thomas Massie (R., Ky.) and Ro Khanna (D., Calif.) are readying a petition to force a floor vote on legislation that would give Attorney General Pam Bondi 30 days to release files related to Epstein and his associate Ghislaine Maxwell.

“It would force a full release of the files,” Massie said on ABC’s “This Week” on Sunday. “It’s not a pretty please, would you release the files. It’s the force of law.”

Under House rules, if the petition is signed by the majority of lawmakers, it forces a vote. Massie and 11 Republicans say they are ready to join Democrats on the petition. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R., La.) recently adjourned the House until September and said he wanted to give the Trump administration space to handle the issue.

Trump continues to face questions about his previous relationship with Epstein, who died in prison in 2019 while awaiting trial on federal charges of sex trafficking. The Wall Street Journal published an article earlier this month about a letter bearing Trump’s name that was included in a 2003 birthday album for Epstein. Trump has called the letter “nonexistent” and sued the Journal’s reporters, Journal publisher Dow Jones, parent company News Corp and executives, alleging that the article defamed him.

A Dow Jones spokeswoman said, “We have full confidence in the rigor and accuracy of our reporting, and will vigorously defend against any lawsuit.” A News Corp spokesman didn’t respond to a request for comment.

Trump has said his relationship with Epstein ended before the disgraced financier pleaded guilty to procuring a minor for prostitution in 2008. When Epstein was arrested again in 2019, Trump said he hadn’t talked to him in 15 years.

Trump and top administration officials promised to release the so-called “Epstein files,” and have faced mounting criticism from their own supporters for not releasing more information. In response to the backlash, the Justice Department has since asked courts to release grand-jury transcripts from the Epstein and Maxwell investigations.

The Wall Street Journal reported last week that President Trump is mentioned in the files along with others. Being mentioned in the files isn’t evidence of wrongdoing.

Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche traveled last week to meet Maxwell, the imprisoned longtime confidante of Epstein, in Tallahassee, Fla., where she is serving a 20-year sentence after her 2021 conviction on sex-trafficking and other offenses for facilitating Epstein’s sexual abuse of underage teens.

The House Oversight Committee has also issued a subpoena to require Maxwell to testify. Prosecutors said Maxwell selected young, vulnerable victims for Epstein and at times participated in the abuse herself. She has appealed her conviction to the U.S. Supreme Court. At her sentencing in 2022, she called Epstein, her onetime boyfriend, a manipulative, cunning and controlling man who fooled all those in his orbit.

Questions about the late convicted sex predator have exploded inside the GOP since the Justice Department announced earlier this month it had concluded there was no foul play involved in his 2019 death and there is no “client list” of powerful accomplices to be released.

A vote could put Republicans in an uncomfortable position of having to decide whether to support having the files released and defying President Trump, or risk alienating voters who want more transparency. Massie said Sunday the issue could cost Republicans their House majority.

Johnson last week accused Massie, who has clashed with Trump and Johnson on other legislation, of trying to inflict political pain.

“Is the pain he’s talking about that somebody in our party will be embarrassed by those files—then that’s not a good excuse,” Massie said on NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday. “Is the pain he’s talking about is that the legislators, when they vote have to pick between protecting the embarrassment of the rich and powerful versus getting justice for victims?”

Johnson on NBC’s “Meet The Press” on Sunday called the Massie and Khanna effort “reckless in the way that it is drafted and presented,” saying it doesn’t protect victims. The two lawmakers countered, saying their bill would redact victims’ names and hide any child pornography, which is one reason the Justice Department has cited for not releasing the files.