>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of October 2016

>>> Up
*ALIOR RAISED TO BUY VS NEUTRAL AT CITI
*Barrick Gold Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
*Credit Agricole Upgraded at Macquarie on Retail Expectations
*Freeport Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
*SIEMENS RAISED TO BUY VS HOLD AT BERENBERG
*TGS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS UNDERWEIGHT AT BARCLAYS

>>> Down
*ACERINOX CUT TO SELL VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
*CENTRICA CUT TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*ORANGE CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*SKANSKA CUT TO SELL AT NORDEA
*TELENOR CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*TF1 CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*ABI RATED NEW BUY AT LIBERUM; PT EU132
*BANCA CARIGE RESUMED AT NEUTRAL AT MEDIOBANCA; PT EU0.31
*CAMPARI RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM; PT EU11
*CARLSBERG RATED NEW BUY AT LIBERUM; PT DKK713
*DANONE RESUMED AT OUTPERFORM VS MARKET PERFORM AT BERNSTEIN
*DIAGEO RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM; PT 2,182P
*EMERSON RATED NEW SELL AT BERENBERG, PT $41
*HEINEKEN RATED NEW BUY AT LIBERUM; PT EU95
*LA COMER RATED NEW UNDERWEIGHT AT JPMORGAN
*MERLIN ENTERTAINMENTS RATED NEW BUY AT HSBC
*PERNOD RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM; PT EU112
*REMY RATED NEW HOLD AT LIBERUM; PT EU75
*ROCKWELL RATED NEW SELL AT BERENBERG, PT $100
*VIRGIN MONEY RATED NEW BUY AT JEFFERIES; PT 400P

>>> Call

LeTemps:Comment les petites banques se font une place dans la gestion de fortune

Comment les petites banques se font une place dans la gestion de fortune

On leur prédisait un avenir difficile, mais les établissements gérant moins de 5 milliards d’actifs sont toujours nombreux sur le marché de la gestion de fortune. Avec des business models très différents

Comment les petites banques de gestion de fortune peuvent-elles exister aux côtés des géants du secteur, qui bénéficient d’une marque reconnue, d’un réseau et souvent d’implantations à l’étranger? UBS et Credit Suisse, par exemple, gèrent plus de la moitié des 4900 milliards de francs avoirs confiés aux 55 banques privées passées au crible dans une récente étude du consultant Roland Berger.

Dans cette même étude, les 22 établissements affichant des actifs inférieurs à 10 milliards de francs gèrent collectivement l’équivalent de deux bonnes années d’afflux d’argent frais d’UBS.

Il n’empêche que la majorité des banques privées suisses sont de petits ou très petits établissements. S’ils sont nombreux à rencontrer des difficultés substantielles, d’autres se portent particulièrement bien, avance l’étude.

Plusieurs similitudes

«Dans l’ensemble, les banques de moins de dix milliards d’actifs sous gestion ont de meilleurs résultats que ce que nous pensions, même si certaines ont souffert, expliquent deux des auteurs de l’étude, Robert Buess et Thomas Volland. Il n’existe pas un seul modèle d’affaires qui fonctionne, mais les petites banques qui réussissent partagent les points suivants: une structure de coûts simple, avec moins d’étages hiérarchiques et de fonctions que dans les grands établissements; elles sont moins présentes à l’étranger, avec généralement un maximum de 2 à 3 implantations internationales; enfin, une direction très impliquée dans les affaires courantes, qui rencontre les clients et aide les gérants à acquérir de la clientèle.»

L’autre point commun de ces petites banques: appliquer des stratégies différentes. Exemples à Genève.

Banque Pâris Bertrand Sturdza: le modèle post-crise

C’est la dernière banque qui s’est créée à Genève, en 2009, c’est-à-dire en pleine crise financière. Les principes fondateurs tranchaient avec le fonctionnement classique d’une banque privée: «nous avons voulu créer une structure qui n’effectuerait que de la gestion et qui n’accueillerait que des clients déclarés», résume Olivier Bertrand, l’un des fondateurs, avec son ancien collègue du département «key clients» d’UBS Pierre Pâris et le banquier genevois Eric Sturdza.

Ce positionnement très clair a eu deux conséquences: la banque n’a jamais eu à régler de problème de «legacy» (la transition des clients vers la transparence fiscale, en jargon bancaire) et elle a sous-traité son informatique et les fonctions de support. Résultat, PBS affiche actuellement un ratio inédit de 45 collaborateurs pour 4,2 milliards de francs sous gestion.

Parmi les plus performantes de l’étude annuelle KPMG

Ces deux dernières années, l’établissement de la rue-de-Candolle figure parmi les banques les plus performantes de l’étude annuelle de KPMG sur la gestion de fortune en Suisse. L’établissement, qui ne publie pas d’autre chiffre que sa masse sous gestion, a été rentable après deux ans et demi d’activité, selon ses dirigeants.

Servant des clients majoritairement originaires de Suisse, de Grande-Bretagne et d’Europe de l’Ouest, la banque a progressivement élargi son offre au-delà de la pure gestion privée. Dans la gestion institutionnelle à partir de 2012 (qui représente aujourd’hui un quart des avoirs), puis dans des classes d’actifs spécifiques, jusqu’au private equity.

En parallèle, la structure s’est renforcée avec l’arrivée de personnalités reconnues, comme l’ancien responsable de la gestion de fortune au niveau mondial d’UBS Georges Gagnebin ou Bernard Fornas, l’ex-codirecteur du groupe de luxe Richemont. Une antenne a été ouverte au Luxembourg en décembre 2015, où sont gérés environ 400 millions d’euros.

Cramer: Celui qui a tout consolidé

«La consolidation va se poursuivre dans le secteur bancaire, à cause de plusieurs facteurs: l’augmentation des charges et les pressions sur les revenus, la tendance à la segmentation, par laquelle les banques se concentrent sur un nombre réduit de marchés et sur certains types de clients», affirme Massimo Esposito, président de la holding Norinvest, qui possède la banque Cramer (et détenait le spécialiste des pierres précieuses Golay Buchel jusqu’à sa liquidation l’an dernier).

L’homme est un «serial consolidateur»: ces dernières années, Cramer a repris la Banque de Patrimoine Privés (qui gérait environ 1,2 milliard de francs), la Banque de Dépôts et Gestion (environ 1 milliard sous gestion) et Valartis Bank (1,5 milliard de francs d’actifs). De quoi gonfler les actifs de Cramer jusqu’à 5,3 milliards de francs pour 109 postes équivalents plein-temps en Suisse. La masse sous gestion est appelée à redescendre à 3,7 milliards lorsque sera concrétisée la vente de sa filiale basée aux Bahamas, annoncée fin août.

Un bénéfice net de 18,9 millions de francs

La banque présente à Genève, Lausanne, Lugano et Zurich est-elle suffisamment grande, au point d’avoir atteint la proverbiale taille critique? «Il y a des banques bien gérées et des banques moins bien gérées», élude Massimo Esposito, qui demeure néanmoins ouvert à d’autres opportunités, y compris sous forme d’asset deal. Banque Cramer a dégagé un bénéfice net de 18,9 millions de francs l’an dernier, après avoir publié une perte nette de 5,2 millions en 2014.

Spécialisé sur les marchés suisse, italien et russe, l’établissement s’était diversifié dans le financement du commerce de matières premières, une activité arrêtée il y a quelques années, faute d’avoir atteint une rentabilité suffisante. A l’avenir, la banque qui sponsorise la joueuse de tennis Timea Bacsinszky compte notamment développer ses activités en Italie, suite à l’obtention d’une licence octroyée par la banque centrale italienne, et à Moscou, où elle prévoit d’ouvrir un bureau de représentation dans les mois qui viennent.

GS Banque: la part du cœur

La Geneva Swiss Bank veut gérer une petite partie du patrimoine de ses clients: celle qu’ils réservent pour des investissements qui les passionnent. «Nous nous positionnons dans une logique de service pour nos clients, en les orientant pour qu’ils concrétisent des investissements qui leur tiennent à cœur, par exemple dans des thématiques comme les véhicules électriques, la protection de l’environnement ou les meilleures valeurs suisses», explique le directeur général Grégoire Pennone, rencontré dans les bureaux les plus spectaculaires de la place financière genevoise.

L’ex-Banque Hentsch, dont Bénédict Hentsch s’est retiré en 2014, occupe le dernier étage des anciens locaux de Merck Serono, qui accueillent le Campus Biotech, dans le quartier de Sécheron à Genève. Dans ce haut lieu de la recherche en biotechnologie, GS Banque s’est elle aussi mise en mode start-up depuis le début de l’année, coupant les coûts autant que possible.

A la recherche du «client de demain»

L’espace que devait occuper le directeur de Serono Ernesto Bertarelli (il a vendu son entreprise avant de pouvoir s’y installer) comprenait une chambre et une salle de bains; c’est maintenant une salle de trading et un bureau pour banquiers – sans cravate de préférence, pour correspondre «au client de demain» que l’établissement souhaite attirer. Un client plutôt «jeune, entrepreneur et qui ne recherche pas une banque pour le prestige mais pour le conseil et la mise en réseau», décrit Grégoire Pennone, lui-même quadragénaire et fils du propriétaire de la banque.

L’établissement, qui vient d’effectuer un «asset deal» et gère environ un milliard de francs pour une quarantaine d’employés, opère aussi une plateforme de trading sur marge, qui permet à ses clients de parier sur l’évolution de paires de devises. Une activité de conseil en private equity est également envisagée à moyen terme.

Millenium: la portugaise tournée vers l’Afrique

Basée uniquement à Genève, Millennium Banque Privée ne compte pas de clients résidents en Suisse et n’envisage pas de changer cet état de fait. Sa clientèle, qui lui a confié 3,3 milliards de francs d’avoirs, est principalement issue du Portugal, de Pologne, de Grèce, du Brésil et d’Afrique. C’est-à-dire des zones où est implantée sa maison mère, Banco Comercial Português, l’un des plus importants groupes bancaires lusitaniens.

C’est justement en mettant l’accent sur des pays comme le Mozambique, l’Angola – deux anciennes colonies portugaises – ou l’Afrique du Sud que Millennium (70 collaborateurs) a atteint une croissance annuelle moyenne de 6% de sa masse sous gestion depuis 2011, résume le directeur général Jose Salgado. L’an dernier, l’établissement a attiré 167 millions de francs de «net new money».

Viser d'autres marchés

Mais le dirigeant portugais, adorateur des montagnes suisses, n’est pas un ayatollah de la croissance organique pour autant. La banque qu’il dirige pourrait se développer dans d’autres marchés, prioritairement en Europe de l’Est et en Amérique latine, si elle procède à des asset deals ou si elle réalise des acquisitions.

Cette option sera à nouveau possible dès juin 2017, lorsque Banco Comercial Português ne sera plus soumis à des restrictions imposées depuis 2012 et l’injection de trois milliards d’euros d’argent public pour le sauver de la crise des dettes souveraines européennes. D’autres marchés pourraient également être explorés depuis que le groupe chinois Fosun, actif dans la finance, la santé et le divertissement, a annoncé son intention d’acquérir 30% du capital de Banco Comercial Português durant l’été.

En Suisse, Millennium ne vise pas une taille précise, ses objectifs sont plutôt d’atteindre 10% de rendement des fonds propres et un ratio coûts/revenus inférieur à 75%. «Nous sommes proches de ces niveaux, mais avec la tendance à la baisse des marges sur le marché de la gestion de fortune, il nous faudra de la croissance pour continuer à les atteindre», conclut Jose Salgado.

>>> DJ WhiteWave Shareholders Expected to Back Danone Bid



Back Danone Bid

Sunday, October 02, 2016 01:16 PM
by Kelsey Gee
WhiteWave Foods Co. shareholders this week are expected to support a $10.4 billion takeover bid by French dairy giant Danone SA, despite concerns among some investors and organic industry groups about the deal.
A majority of WhiteWave common stockholders need to vote in favor of the deal at a meeting Tuesday at its Denver headquarters in order to join the makers of the leading brands of U.S. organic milk, yogurt, and plant-based dairy substitutes like Silk soymilk.
Proxy advisory firms Glass Lewis & Co. and Institutional Shareholder Services issued reports last month recommending shareholders approve the tie-up, which was announced July 7.
Some analysts have called Danone a natural home for WhiteWave, given the French company's international presence in the grocery-store dairy aisle, with brands like Actimel and Activia, which could give products like Horizon Organic milk a bigger platform outside the U.S. Danone, in turn, said it is eager to take over one of the fastest-growing companies in the healthy and organic food sector that is transforming U.S. eating habits.
However, after investors initially sent WhiteWave shares soaring nearly 19% the day the deal was announced, enthusiasm on Wall Street has since fizzled.
Shares closed Friday at $54.43 each or 3% lower than the offer price of $56.25 a share.
Some investors say they are disappointed WhiteWave wasn't offered more money for the company, which has posted double-digit sales growth with many of its top-selling organic and plant-based products.
Nick Mazing, founder of New York's Ampera Capital LLC and a WhiteWave shareholder, said that the premium Danone paid is "objectively below that of comparable deals" for natural and organic brands by larger food companies. In his view, shares could have fetched as much as 30% to 40% over its pre-offer value.
WhiteWave disclosed in an Aug. 30 regulatory filing that the company agreed to Danone's request to negotiate exclusively.
Both WhiteWave and Danone said in regulatory filings that they expect the deal will close by the end of the year. A WhiteWave spokeswoman and a representative for Danone both declined to comment ahead of the vote.
"In our view, the WhiteWave board conducted a limited, though still adequate, review of strategic and transaction alternatives," Glass Lewis said in its report of the merger, adding that the advisory firm generally believes shareholders' interests are better served when a company considers multiple proposals.
The size of WhiteWave, which reported a net profit of $168 million on revenue of $3.9 billion in 2015, and the nature of the industry might have mitigated the need for a wider solicitation process, Glass Lewis said.
WhiteWave also disclosed in September that it likely will be asked to provide more information to the Justice Department, as the agency conducts an antitrust review for what would be the largest U.S. organic dairy company if the deal is completed.
Both WhiteWave, in its Horizon Organic and Wallaby dairy lines, and Danone, with a major stake in Stonyfield yogurt, purchase a large supply of organic milk.
The Cornucopia Institute, a Wisconsin-based organic watchdog, in August asked the Justice Department to investigate the acquisition for any impact on pricing for consumers or producers, due to the large combined market share of the two companies.
Mark Kastel, an organic dairy farmer and head of Corncupia Institute, said he doesn't support the deal. "Organics have become big business, and morphed from a farmer-centric industry to one that looks a lot like the multinational corporations we were trying to move away from," said Mr. Kastel. "For small, organic dairy farmers up against these larger, lower-cost operators, it's not a fair competition."

WSJ : Obama’s Political Bank Run

Obama’s Political Bank Run
The U.S. stages an election robbery and nearly triggers a panic.

How much money can the Obama Administration seize from banks before triggering a global financial panic? U.S. Department of Justice lawyers decided to find out by running a two-week experiment at Germany’s Deutsche Bank. The experiment appears to have ended on Friday, but not before Washington had ignited a run on one of the world’s largest financial institutions.
The government threat to Deutsche Bank’s safety and soundness began on Sept. 15. That’s when the Journal reported that Justice was demanding an eye-watering $14 billion to resolve an investigation of the bank’s sale of mortgage-backed securities prior to the 2008 financial panic.
Deutsche Bank then had to acknowledge the size of this government stick-up as its stock price proceeded to drop more than 20% in a fortnight. The lack of exuberance among investors was entirely rational. Washington’s proposed withdrawal represented most of the bank’s market capitalization.

Why announce this giant robbery now? Well, on Friday morning the Financial Times quoted two anonymous sources as saying Justice is seeking an “omnibus settlement” from Deutsche Bank, Barclays and Credit Suisse “to achieve maximum public impact by collecting an eye-catching sum in penalties” merely “weeks before the U.S. presidential election.”
The FT is often wrong, but we assume it didn’t make this up. And you don’t have to be a cynic to believe that this Administration would stage a bank raid that it could brag about to rev up voter enthusiasm among Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren Democrats.
The problem is that the feds were creating the very systemic financial risk—aka “contagion”—that they claim to want to prevent. The public raid created so many doubts that major hedge funds began to flee Deutsche Bank amid uncertainty about its financial stability. The bank’s travails also called into question the strength of other European lenders, whose stock prices also fell.
Deutsche Bank CEO John Cryan had to write a letter assuring employees that despite “speculation in the media that a few of our hedge fund clients have reduced some activities with us,” the bank still had more than 20 million clients and strong fundamentals.
A crisis for the bank was averted when Agence France Press reported Friday that the U.S. government suddenly appeared willing to accept only $5.4 billion from Deutsche Bank, rather than the $14 billion it had been demanding. Not so coincidentally, the new settlement amount is roughly equal to the litigation reserves recently reported by the bank. The news appeared to quell the run, and Deutsche Bank shares rallied strongly.
To summarize this fiasco: The feds leak a giant settlement number of $14 billion against an already shaky European bank to make the Democrats look tough on banks only weeks before an election. But they misjudge the market reaction, and then quickly settle for less than half that amount when they realize they might end up toppling a giant bank and kicking off another global financial panic.
We’d sure like to see the phone and email communications between Treasury SecretaryJack Lew and Attorney General Loretta Lynch this week. Maybe Mr. Lew’s Financial Stability Oversight Council should investigate this case of government-induced systemic risk. He could bring in House Financial Services Chairman Jeb Hensarling as investigating counsel.
Notably missing here is any thought for proper justice in the creation of either settlement number. It all seems to have been an arbitrary political game. Justice lawyers have never even publicly stated what exactly Deutsche Bank is supposed to have done wrong. Does it even matter in Barack Obama’s Washington?

FT : Sales dive leaves widebody aircraft on taxi to nowhere

Sales dive leaves widebody aircraft on taxi to nowhere

The downturn in orders is being felt most in the widebody market that includes the A380

Airbus and Boeing are expecting aircraft deals to be slow for up to three years, but the world’s two biggest passenger jet manufacturers are confident that bulging order backlogs will carry them through the dry season.
Amid falling demand for jets, the European and US aerospace companies are increasing production of their most popular aircraft to record levels, which may reduce the size of their backlogs but also raise profits.
“We will stay in a slow period [for aircraft orders] for a couple of years while we burn down the backlog,” says John Leahy, chief salesman at Airbus, in an interview with the Financial Times. “People have been buying at a rate of over 1,000 a year. Of course the order cycle will go down. But . . . we have been able to pause when we need to in a downturn because of the massive backlog.”
After six years of booming deals, the order slowdown is being felt most in certain widebody aircraft, raising questions over prospects for some of these big ticket, long-haul passenger jets which sell for $200m to $400m or more.
Dennis Muilenburg, chief executive of Boeing, said this month that he expected sales of twin-aisle aircraft to be tough until 2020, as the company introduces a new generation of large aircraft.
“The challenge we have is between now and the end of this decade, that roughly three-year time period, as we go through the transition to the [new] 777X [twin-aisle jet] and some . . . local hesitation in widebody orders,” he said.
The reality is that after years of bingeing on new aircraft, airlines are now beginning to realise their expansion plans may have been too ambitious — for the near future at least.
The International Air Transport Association, airlines’ main representative body, signalled in June that while passenger traffic will grow at just over 6 per cent in 2016, it is beginning to slow down from the 7 per cent plus rates seen in previous years. “Widebody is the first area airlines stop ordering when capacity is slowing,” says Sash Tusa, an analyst at Agency Partners. “The airline industry was probably over ordered.”
Mr Leahy insists there has been no particular slowdown in twin-aisle demand — indeed, Airbus’s orders net of cancellations last year were still higher than in 2011 and 2012. But airlines admit they may have been carried away. “Now the market is a little bit saturated,” says one industry insider.
Moreover, combined orders for Boeing and Airbus suggest widebody jet demand began slowing a year earlier than for single-aisle aircraft. At the recent peak in 2013, Boeing and Airbus logged combined net orders for 750 widebody jets. Orders fell in both 2014 and 2015, and so far this year the companies have scraped together deals for a mere 123 jets.
In part the slowdown reflects specific problems with certain aircraft. Airbus, for example, has struggled to sell its A380 superjumbo. This summer it put the A380 on life support, cutting annual production rates from 27 in 2015 to 12 by 2018. Airbus also had more cancellations than orders for its widebody A350 jet during 2014 and 2015.
Boeing, with a slightly bigger share of the widebody market, has suffered more, even if now there could be a sizeable order in the offing from Qatar Airways. It is now talking openly about the possibility of reducing production of the existing generation 777 twin-aisle jet, as customers wait for the more fuel efficient 777X. The US company is also more cautious about plans to increase the rate on the widebody 787 Dreamliner from 12 to 14 a month.
Some of the fall off in twin-aisle orders may be that the excitement on the launch of more efficient models — notably the Dreamliner and the A350 — is petering out.
But new technology is also challenging these bigger jets: narrow-body aircraft are carrying more passengers and flying further than ever before. Norwegian Air Shuttle, one of Europe’s biggest low-cost carriers, is planning to use the new Airbus A321LR single-aisle jet to fly passengers across the Atlantic. “The average size of aircraft on international routes is getting smaller,” says Richard Aboulafia of Teal Group, a consultancy. “It could be the 321 is used . . . at the expense of the 787.”
Rob Morris, head of Flight Ascend Consultancy, says the share of wide-bodies in the global fleet has shrunk from roughly 25 per cent in 1990 to about 19 per cent. This is in part because the single-aisle market has expanded rapidly as low-cost travel has grown.
Mr Morris believes the wide-bodies’ share has stabilised, but he acknowledges there may still be some impact from single-aisles’ increased range and capacity. About half of the routes flown by widebody aircraft are less than 5,500km, well within the range of the Airbus A321LR and Boeing’s new narrow-body 737 Max jet.
The decline in widebody deals could also be a function of the manufacturers’ huge order backlogs. Airbus and Boeing have orders for a total of 2,500 twin-aisle jets on their books, many of which will not be delivered for years.
Airlines might now be postponing new orders, says Mr Morris, to avoid paying escalation fees. These charges, typically calculated at 4 per cent of the price of the aircraft, are designed to protect the manufacturers from future increases in input costs between order and delivery.
Nevertheless, airlines will always need bigger jets for the most densely travelled long-haul routes, say airline executives. Congested airports and the rise in the number of passengers make them indispensable.
Mr Leahy believes the single-aisle aircraft will never pose a real threat to bigger jets. “Wide-bodies carry freight. They go longer ranges, and that is important for a lot of airlines,” he says. The A321 “is a game changing airplane. It is a very good market but I don’t think it will ever have a major impact on widebody sales either for us or for Boeing.”

WSJ : U.S. Manufacturing Faces a Key Test

U.S. Manufacturing Faces a Key Test
ISM data Monday should offer clues on whether manufacturing’s recent weak spell is a blip or more problematic

Now comes the hard part.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged last month with the expectation that it still plans to raise them by year-end. That, of course, assumes that the economy can maintain its upward trajectory.
Data releases this week, including Friday’s monthly jobs report, should offer clues on whether the economy is up to the test. Up first is a key indicator of manufacturing activity on Monday. It is especially important because that is a clear weak spot.

Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal estimate the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing index ticked up to 49.7 in September from 49.4 a month earlier. That would mark the second successive month below the 50 level separating expansion from contraction.
The August reading was especially surprising because prior data had shown an improving manufacturing environment. Factory activity appeared to have stabilized from March through July. That followed a difficult end to last year that stretched into early 2016, thanks to the strong dollar and falling commodity prices.
To be sure, two months don’t necessarily make a trend. ISM’s historical data have shown several false alarms during this expansion, only for factory activity to regain course in the following months. Sustained downturns, however, are more problematic. Over the past three decades, there have been six instances when the ISM was at 50 or below for at least four months in a row. Job growth slowed in the year that followed each instance.

There is hope that the economy can escape that fate, particularly if positive regional manufacturing metrics are to be trusted. On Friday, the Chicago Business Barometer, commonly referred to as the Chicago PMI, rose to a healthy 54.2, exceeding expectations thanks to a surge in new production. That positive surprise could bode well for Monday’s ISM report.
A pleasant surprise might shift the market’s interest-rate calculus. Even with the Fed suggesting it is on pace to raise rates, federal-funds futures peg the chances of them doing so at the December meeting at about 50%.
A sigh of relief about manufacturing’s weak spell could put the Fed’s talk and traders’ bets more in sync.

>>> What to look at this week end - 1st & 2nd of October 2016

Weekly Performance
Dow +0.26% S&P +0.17% Nasdaq +0.81% Russell -0.24% Brazil -0.56% Nikkei -1.82% Hang Seng -1.64% CSI -0.68% Shanghai -0.96% EuroStoxx -0.99% CAC -0.90% Dax -1.09% Ibex -0.50% MIB -0.32% FTSE -0.15% SMI -1.62%
The trading week opened with two main storylines dominating markets. All eyes were on Berlin and Algiers as the precipitously declining stock price of Germany's largest bank and growing expectations OPEC members would finally reach some sort of coordinated production agreement pushed and pulled on investors' willingness to take risk. Stocks were under pressure on reports that the German government had ruled out any state assistance for Deutsche Bank which was facing a reported $14B demand from the DOJ to settle and MBS probe. Meanwhile crude prices slipped back as it appeared OPEC still didn't have a consensus on a production freeze headed into this week's meeting. Global Treasury markets rallied as safe haven flows buoyed prices and weighed on yields.

Macro :
- May Tells Sunday Times Brexit Legislation Coming in April or May
- Greek Banks Not at Risk From Turmoil in EU Banks: Stournaras
- China Factory Gauge Stable at Post-2014 High as Services Pick Up
- DAX Leaders Say Strong Deutsche Bank Vital for Germany: FAS
- Italy’s Padoan to Hold Meeting on Banks Tomorrow: Ansa
- ZEW’s Wambach Sees German Economic Boom at Risk From Complacency

Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : Cevian Denies Report It Met Buyers for ABB Assets: SamS
- ABG SM : Abengoa 1H Net Loss EU3.7b on Bionergy, Brazil Charges
- AIR FP : Airbus Sticking to Plane Delivery Targets, COO Tells Le Monde
- AZ IM : Alitalia Seen Posting About EU100m Quarterly Loss: Messaggero
- ALO FP : Alstom’s Belfort Plant Will Be Saved, French Prime Minister Says
- AMUN FP : Amundi, Poste Italiane Said Leading Bids for UniCredit’s Pioneer
- BT/ LN : BT Says Business Rate Increases May Push Up Phone Bills: Times
- CA FP : Carrefour Brazil Unit Said to Seek Up to BRL10b in IPO: Globo
- STZ US : Constellation Said to Consider $1b Sale of Canadian Wine: WSJ
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank’s Woes Put $2 Trillion of Bonds Beyond ECB’s Reach
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank to ‘Put Forward Defense in Court’ in Milan Probe
- DBK GY : Cryan Traveling to U.S. to Discuss Deutsche Bank Fine: FAZ
- DB1 GY : Euronext eyes EUR 400m bid for LSE LCH SA clearing house
- EDF FP : French State’s APE Says It Will Take EDF Dividend in Shares
- RF FP : Eurazeo PME Invests EU54.9m in AssurCopro, Takes 50% Stake
- NXT FP : Euronext eyes EUR 400m bid for LSE LCH SA clearing house
- EVK GY : Evonik Eyeing Possible Divestments of Dow/DuPont, CEO Tells RP
- FB US : Facebook Testing Snapchat-Like ‘Stories’ Feature: Techcrunch
- GLPG NA : Galapagos Is ‘Definitely’ Considering Takeovers, CEO Tells FD
- GOOG US : Google to Reject EU Charges It Has a Monopoly, Telegraph Says
- KLM NA : China Airlines, KLM Plan to Intensify Collaboration: Telegraaf
- NOVN VX : Novartis Says Cosentyx Skin Clearance Maintained for 4 Years
- RI FP : Pernod Ricard Sells Frïs Vodka to Sazerac; No Terms
- PHIA NA : Philips Said to Be in Talks to Sell Lumileds to Apollo Global
- SAN FP : Regeneron/Sanofi Skin Drug Improved Itching, Added Data Show
- SIE GY : Siemens Overseers Urge Chairman to Hire More Executives: Spiegel
- TEF SM : O2 Plans to Sell Shrs to Retail Investors, CEO Tells Telegraph
- TSLA US : Tesla Strong Delivery Quarter Is Likely, Barclays Says
- TIT IM : Oi Restructuring Adviser PJT Partners to Give Up Role: Reuters
- TUI LN : TUIfly Labor Representatives Oppose Deal With Etihad: BamS
- TWTR US : Google Said to Tap Lazard to Review Potential Bid for Twitter
- UBI IM : ECB Forces UBI to Give Up Plan to Buy 3 Banks: Messaggero
- UBSG VX : UBS Picks 3 Trades for Asset Allocation From Bonds to Equities
- ZAL GY : Zalando Wants 5% of European Fashion Market: Boersen-Zeitung

>>> Barrons weekend update: Cover story on John Malone's Liberty Media; positive

Barrons weekend update: Cover story on John Malone's Liberty Media; positive on AVGO 

* Cover story: Under the leadership of cable mogul John Malone and chief executive Greg Maffei, the nine stocks under the Liberty Media umbrella have in the aggregate, over the past decade, delivered an annualized 13%-compared with 7.5% for Berkshire Hathaway and 7.7% for the S&P 500. 

* Feature: 1) At Barron's Asia Roundtable, Michelle Leung of Xingtai Capital Management, Erwin Sanft of Macquarie Securities, Anh Lu of T. Rowe Price, and Ronald Chan of Chartwell Capital, discussed China's economic slowdown and the impact of higher U.S. interest rates on Asian markets; 2) Positive on AVGO: Company stands to benefit from strong sales of the AAPL iPhone 7, of which it has 25-30% more content than in previous models, and shares could rise 20%.

* Tech Trader: Cautious on GOOGL, FB: Tech companies currently dominate the online advertising business, but that situation could change at some point if rivals discover new ways to deliver ads-and investors should begin to consider the possibility, and the potential implications. 

* Trader: Investors are trying to assess the impact of concerns such as a possible rate hike in the U.S. and DB's financial strength, says Chris Hyzy of BAC, who remains upbeat about U.S. stocks; Mark Roberts of Off Wall Street Research says bulls may be wrong about PNRA, where profits will be pinched by rising costs and slower demand; Positive on CBS: Shares of broadcaster will remain attractive even if the company doesn't strike a deal with VIA, and if a deal does take place, chief Les Moonves will have an outsize say over the terms. 

* Profile: Michael S. Beall, manager, Davenport Value & Income fund, focuses on well-run businesses with strong owner-operated managements (top 10 holdings: JNJ, FNF, MKL, WSO, COF, JPM, GE, DEO, WFC, GLPI). 

* Small Caps: Positive on AMC: New initiatives at movie chain, such as reclining seats, reserved seating, and higher-quality concessions, are driving growth despite a steady decline in attendance. 

* European Trader:Positive on RWE.DE: German utility giant's plan to spin off its renewables, infrastructure, and retail business into a new company, Innogy, should drive a 20% increase in its stock. 

* Asian Trader: "Indonesia's tax-amnesty program, introduced in July, is turning out to be hugely successful," and has led Indonesians to repatriate more than $9.5B. 

* Emerging Markets: The leading emerging market performers this year have been Brazil, Peru, and Russia, while the worst have been Greece, China, and Czechoslovakia. Commodities: Analysts say the decline in butter prices, the result of bulging inventory, probably has farther to go. 

* Streetwise: "Healthcare is considered one of the market's four defensive pillars-along with utilities, telecoms, and consumer stocks-but last week it was anything but"; MS analyst Adam Parker identified JNJ, AMGN, MDT, AGN, and LLY as some of the more defensive issues among the market's 50 largest stocks.