After the close in Frankfurt but in the middle of trading in New York, another damaging “internal bank document” was leaked to Bloomberg. In it, we learn that “a number of funds that clear derivatives trades with Deutsche Bank AG have withdrawn some excess cash and positions held at the lender.” We note that only ten out of 200+ derivatives-clearing clients have made these changes, but the damage was large enough for the stock price to lose another 6.67% in NY. We can only reiterate what we wrote in our Q&A report “Is Deutsche Bank going bust?” yesterday about the liquidity of the bank and the main features of its derivatives portfolio. We reiterate our Buy rating with a Target Price of EUR13.92, but we note that the harrowing pressure faced by the bank has essentially been produced by two press leaks: one presumably from the DOJ and the other one (on Thursday) from an “internal bank document”. We are very far away from fundamental analysis…
Since 2002, there have been $1.4tn inflows to passive ETFs vs $1.0tn redemptions from active mutual funds.
>>> Asset Class Flows
- Equities: $5.6bn inflows (largest in 7 weeks) ($4.2bn mutual fund outflows vs $9.9bn ETF inflows)
- Bonds: $9.3bn inflows (largest in 7 weeks) (inflows in 12 of past 13 weeks)
- Precious metals: $0.7bn inflows (largest in 7 weeks)
- Money-markets: $5.7bn outflows
>>> Equity Flows
- Japan: strong $2.2bn inflows (largest 3w inflows in 8 months)
- EM: $1.0bn inflows (inflows in 12 of past 13 weeks)
- Europe: $1.9bn outflows (record 34 straight weeks of outflows)
- US: $4.2bn inflows (largest in 7 weeks)
- By sector: largest healthcare inflows ($0.5bn) in 11 months; chunky $1.0bn inflows to REITs
>>> Fixed Income Flows
- Largest inflows to HY bond funds in 11 weeks ($2.9bn)
- 13 straight weeks of inflows to EM debt funds ($2.4bn)
- $3.2bn inflows to IG bond funds (inflows in 29 of past 30 weeks)
- 12 straight weeks of outflows from Govt/Tsy funds ($1.0bn)
- 54 straight weeks of inflows to Munis ($0.7bn)
- 16 straight weeks of TIPS inflows ($0.2bn)
Outflows from European equity funds approach $100bn
Redemptions from European equity funds have approached $100bn as investors race out of an asset class that has been rattled by the uncertain health of the continent’s financial sector.
Funds invested in European stocks suffered $1.9bn of withdrawals in the week to September 28, the 34th consecutive week of outflows, according to fund flows tracked by EPFR. The exodus since mid-February has reached $95bn, the data show.
Anxiety over the health of the European banking system, which recently culminated with a rise in short interest in Deutsche Bank, has persisted from the year’s start and weighed on the region’s nascent recovery.
The European Central Bank has unleashed a wave of stimulus in a bid to rekindle growth and inflation, but has been unable to shake investor concerns. Flight from European stocks has been fanned by a troubled Italian financial sector as well as the UK’s Brexit vote, which is seen as a weight on economic activity throughout the bloc.
Deutsche Bank was thrust to the fore after a report said German officials were drawing up contingency plans in the event it is unable to tap financial markets to meet regulatory requirements resulting from a US fine. The bank has emphasised its strong financial position, but that has not stopped some hedge funds from pulling part of their business from the German group.
“Deutsche Bank’s travails kept mutual fund investors on their toes during the final week of September,” said Cameron Brandt, director of research for EPFR. “Sentiment towards Europe took hits from the setting of a date for Italy’s constitutional referendum and the possibility of higher oil prices sapping regional consumer confidence.”
Gabriela Santos, a strategist with JPMorgan Asset Management, added that there was investor “frustration” over the poor performance in European stocks “driven by fears around financials”. Shares of European bank stocks have slid 28 per cent this year, compared with a 5 per cent fall by their US counterparts.
Investors instead turned to US equities in the latest week, with mutual funds and exchange traded funds invested in the asset class counting $4.2bn of inflows — the greatest weekly addition in more than a month.
The fragility of the European financial sector has been seen as an impediment to the Federal Reserve tightening policy, which has buoyed equity and bond markets, Mr Brandt noted. Overall, bond funds added $9.2bn in the latest week while stock funds took in $5.6bn, a five-week high.
Emerging market stock funds counted $1bn in new capital, lifting their haul since the start of July to nearly $19bn, while flows into EM bond funds hit a nine-week high. Developing market debt has attracted a flood of investor appetite as investors search for higher-yielding assets.
“There is this unrelenting drop in yields,” Ms Santos added. “But it is more than that. It is about the feeling that the worst is over for emerging markets.”
Dow -1.07% S&P -0.93% Nasdaq -0.93% Russell -1.43%
US Market closed lower pushed by DBK (-6.6% in NY). OPEC decision helped sentimeng but not enough to push th broader mkt much higher. DBK traded down almost 10% on news of HF reducing their exposure to Dbk. All eleven sectors finished in the red with utilities (-1.5%), financials (-1.5%), and health care (-1.8%) underperforming while energy (-0.1%) led to the upside. . NXP Semiconductor (NXPI 96.12, +13.88) rallied 16.9% after reports indicated that Qualcomm (QCOM 67.45, +4.00) could be looking to acquire the company.Volume were above average with 971mil shares . US After Hours COST +2% following earnings, MENT +6% on Elliot active stake news, WMT +0.5% with Costco/analyst initiation... CAMP -13% on earnings/guidance, THLD -70% discontinuing Tarloxotinib Program/cutting staff news. Sentiment in Asia is cautious with the focus shifting from rallying energy on OPEC output cut to financials as Deutsche Bank bears the brunt of liquidity concerns; Late in US session, equities swung sharply lower after reports that 10 hedge funds have reduced exposure to Deutsche Bank and clients have reduced collateral on trades; DB spokesperson confident that majority of trading clients understand group has stable financial position. China Caixin Manuf PMI in expansion for the 3rd straight month and in line with consensus. China markets will be closed until next Monday for Golden Week. Japan inflation data show continued deterioration despite the rebound in the energy market. BOJ summary of opinion for most recent meeting stresses flexibility - will inspect yield curve shape at every meeting and not attached to the current 10-yr JGB yield of near zero.
Nikkei -1.47% Hang Seng -1.42% CSI +0.32% Shanghai +0.16%
Eur$ 1.1217 CNH 6.6796 CNY 6.67 JPY 101.06 GBP 1.2959 CHF 0.9660 RUB$ 63.1197 WTI$ 47.49 (-0.71%)
S&P -0.39% EuroStoxx -1.60% Dax -1.55% FTSE -0.94% SMI -0.98%
Macro :
- MSCI Continues to Monitor Development in China A Shares Market
- U.S. Seeks Joint Settlement of Banks’ Mortgage Claims, FT Says
Keep an eye on :
- ABBN VX : ABB Completes Share Buyback Program, Bought ~$3.5b of Shares
- AIR FP : Airbus Group Likely to Merge With Main Planemaking Unit: Reuters
- AIR FP : Boeing Said Near Widebody Jet Sale to Qatar Air After F-15 Deal
- AAPL US : Apple Pay to Start Working in Russia in October, Vedomosti Says
- AREVA FP : Areva Won Several Contracts Valued at More Than EU5b
- BPM IM : BPM May Not Pay Back Shrs Subject to Withdrawal Rights: Radiocor
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Liquidity Stable, Bolstered by ECB, Goldman Says
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Says Prime Brokerage ‘Still Very Profitable’: CNBC
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Dec. $8 Puts Most Active vs Shares at $11.48
- DBK GY : Some Deutsche Bank Clients Want ‘Triparty’ Credit Deals: CNBC
- ERICB SS : Sweden Wants Ericsson to Clarify Plans for Sweden, DI Reports
- ERF FP : Eurofins Buys Megalab in Spain for About EU40m
- GLEN LN : Glencore’s Chemoil to Retire $71m+ in Renewable Energy Credits
- INGA NA : ING Said to Cut Thousands of Jobs, Financieele Dagblad Reports
- DEC FP : JCDecaux Unit Gets 20-Yr Tokyo Advertising Bus Shelter Contracts
- KER FP : Kering Names Beretta Chief Client, Marketing Officer
- RBI AV : Raiffeisen May Want to Extend Deadline in Polish Unit Sale:Rp.pl
- RNO FP : Ghosn: Renault to Sell Well Over 3M Cars This Year: Echos
- REP SM : Sacyr Hedges 20m Repsol Shares Through Derivatives Contract
- SFL US : Ship Finance to Offer $200m in Convertible Notes
- GLE FP : SocGen Deputy CEO Not Afraid of Adjustments Banks May Need
- TKA AV : America Movil Won’t Restructure Telekom Austria for Now: Presse
- TKWY NA : Takeaway.Com Sets IPO Price at EU23/Share; Trading Starts Friday
- TEF SM : Telefonica Calls Off Telxius IPO Due to Market Valuation
- VIV FP : Vivendi Says Would Like to Be Represented on Ubisoft Board
>>> Up
*BASF RAISED FROM SELL TO HOLD AT BAADER, PT RAISED FROM €55 to €80 {NSN OEAZ5R6KLVR9 <GO>}
*BURBERRY RAISED TO SECTOR PERFORM AT RBC CAPITAL
*CAPITA RAISED TO NEUTRAL VS SELL AT GOLDMAN {NSN OEAZ5S6TTDSH <GO>}
*FAGRON RAISED TO BUY FROM HOLD AT ING; PT RAISED TO EU11.50
*JRP GROUP RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS EQUAL WEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
>>> Down
*AUSTRIAN POST CUT TO UNDERWEIGHT VS EQUAL WEIGHT AT BARCLAYS
*CEWE STIFTUNG CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT BERENBERG
*COMMERZBANK CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT HSBC
*DNB ASA CUT TO SELL AT NORDEA
*EDF CUT TO SELL VS REDUCE AT ALPHAVALUE
*ELIS CUT TO HOLD VS BUY AT DEUTSCHE BANK
*HEXAGON CUT TO HOLD AT NORDEA
*STANDARD CHARTERED CUT TO ADD VS BUY AT ALPHAVALUE
>>> PT Change
>>> Initiation
*ORIGIN ENTERPRISES INITIATED AT BUY AT LIBERUM, PT EU7.5
>>> Call
Asia Mid-Session Market Update: China Caixin manufacturing PMI holds in expansion; Deutsche Bank uncertainty grips market sentiment
***Asia Notes/Observations***
- Sentiment in Asia is cautious with the focus shifting from rallying energy on OPEC output cut to financials as Deutsche Bank bears the brunt of liquidity concerns; Late in US session, equities swung sharply lower after reports that 10 hedge funds have reduced exposure to Deutsche Bank and clients have reduced collateral on trades; DB spokesperson confident that majority of trading clients understand group has stable financial position.
- China Caixin Manuf PMI in expansion for the 3rd straight month and in line with consensus; New Orders and Inventories improved; Manufacturing employment deteriorated for the 9th straight month; Economist warns that slowing rate of fiscal income suggests insufficient momentum to drive future economic growth.
- China markets will be closed until next Monday for Golden Week.
- Japan inflation data show continued deterioration despite the rebound in the energy market; AUG National AUG CPI down for 6th month at 3-year lows; SEPT Tokyo core-core CPI turns negative for the first time since 2013; Japan industrial output is the silver lining in data set with a 2-year high rate of y/y growth.
- BOJ summary of opinion for most recent meeting stresses flexibility - will inspect yield curve shape at every meeting and not attached to the current 10-yr JGB yield of near zero.
***Top US session headlines***
- (US) Q2 FINAL GDP ANNUALIZED Q/Q: 1.4% V 1.3%E; PERSONAL CONSUMPTION: 4.3% V 4.4%E
- (US) Fed's George (hawk, dissenting voter): job market is showing continued momentum - CNBC interview
- (US) Fed's Powell (moderate, FOMC voter): Fed can continue to be patient; supports gradual path for rate increases
- DBK.DE: Reportedly 10 hedge funds have reduced exposure to Deutsche Bank, hedge fund clients have reduced collateral on trades - press
***US markets on close: Dow -1.1%, S&P500 -0.9%, Nasdaq -0.9%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Basic Materials
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Healthcare / Financials
- Biggest gainers: CAG +7.2%, QCOM +6.3%, RIG +6.1%, MUR +4.9%, MRO +4.7%
- Biggest losers: CHK -9.3%, MPC -6.8%, TSO -6.4%, ENDP -6.4%, VLO -6.2%
***VIX 14.02 (+1.6pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 0.73% (-2bp), 10-yr 1.56% (-1bp), 30-yr 2.28% (-1bp)***
***US movers afterhours***
- MENT +5.3%; Elliott Associates, L.P. discloses 8.1% stake; have initiated dialogue with management - 13D filing
- CEMP +4.1%; Announced interim results showing anti-NASH effects in the first six nonalcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) patients dosed with solithromycin in a Phase 2 study
- COST +1.7%; Reports Q4 $1.77 v $1.73e, R$36.6B (total) v $36.6Be
- ABUS -10.2%; Reports interim multi-dose results from Phase II clinical trial of ARB-1467 in patients with Chronic HBV Infection
- CAMP -13.7%; Reports Q2 $0.27 v $0.28e, R$90.5M v $92.1Me; Guides Q3 $0.24-0.30 v $0.32e, R$81-87M v $93.7Me
***Equity Futures (23:30ET): S&P e-mini -0.3%, Dax -0.3%, FTSE100 -0.4%***
***FX / Commodities ranges (23:30ET):***
- EUR 1.1205-1.1225; JPY 100.90-101.75; AUD 0.7615-0.7635, NZD 0.7230-0.7260
- Gold -0.1% at 1,325/oz; Oil -0.5% at $47.56/brl; Copper -0.3% at $2.18/lb
***Asian Equity Markets (23:30ET)***
- Nikkei -1.6%, Hang Seng -1.3%, ASX -0.6%, Shanghai +0.1%, Kospi -0.9%
***Key economic data:***
- (CN) CHINA SEPT CAIXIN PMI MANUFACTURING: 50.1 V 50.1E; 3rd straight month of expansion
- (JP) JAPAN AUG JOBLESS RATE: 3.1% V 3.0%E; First rise since Feb 2016
- (JP) JAPAN AUG PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 1.5% V +0.5%E; Y/Y: 4.6% (2-year high) V 3.4%E
- (JP) JAPAN AUG NATIONAL CPI Y/Y: -0.5% (biggest decline in 3 years; 6th straight decline) V -0.5%E; CPI EX FRESH FOOD (CORE) Y/Y: -0.5% V -0.4%E; CPI Ex Food and Energy (core-core) Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.2%e; 3-year low
- (JP) JAPAN AUG OVERALL HOUSEHOLD SPENDING Y/Y: -4.6% V -2.1%E; 5th straight decline and biggest decline in 5 months
- (JP) JAPAN SEPT TOKYO CPI Y/Y: -0.5% V -0.5%E; CPI EX-FRESH FOOD Y/Y: -0.5% V -0.4%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 5.8% V 5.9%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA AUG HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: +6.1% V -9.7% PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND AUG BUILDING PERMITS M/M: -1.0% V -8.1% PRIOR (2nd consecutive month of decline)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND SEPT ANZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 42.4 (2-year high) V 33.7 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 27.9 V 15.5 PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA AUG INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -2.4% V -0.6%E; Y/Y: 2.3% V 1.6%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA SEPT PMI MANUFACTURING: 47.6 V 48.6 PRIOR
- (KR) South Korea OCT Business Manufacturing Survey: 75 v 74 prior; Non-Manufacturing Survey: 75 v 75 prior
- (UK) SEPT GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1 V -5E; 3-month high
***Speakers / Press / Fixed Income***
China:
- (CN) CBA economist: Latest China PMI number lower the hurdle for a Fed rate hike this year; Suggests greater stability in global economy - financial press
- (CN) Bank of China (BOC): China GDP estimated around 6.7% in Q4; Major economic indicators point to stabilization - China Daily
- (CN) According to one survey, PBoC may switch its policy stance to one of broad monetary tightening as soon as 2017 - financial press
- Treasury Sec Lew: inclusion of yuan in currency basket this year is still quite a ways away from yuan being considered reserve currency
Japan:
- (JP) BOJ Summary of Opinions for Sep 22nd (most recent) meeting: Felt it was imperative to ensure sustainability of policy; Uncertain if pace of JGB buys will slow down under YCC; Will examine appropriate yield curve shape at every meeting; Should adjust framework, be flexible to meet price goal.
- (JP) BOJ Gov Kuroda: Central banks today faced with number of challenges
- (JP) BOJ offers to buy ¥410B (down from ¥430B prior) in 5-10yr JGBs, ¥200B in 10-25yr JGBs, ¥120B in JGBs with maturity over 25yrs, and ¥1.75T in T-Bills
Australia:
- (AU) Australia MoF (AOFM) sells A$0.9B in 3.25% 2025 Bonds; avg yield: 1.888%; bid-to-cover: 1.66x
***Asia movers***
- Medibank MPL.AU +2.5%; Macquarie Raised to Outperform
- Woolworths WOW.AU -0.1%; Caltex said to be in final stages of talks to buy Woolworths petrol stations - press
- Worlepyparsons WOR.AU -1.1%; UBS lowers stake to 8.0% from 9.0%
- Beach Energy BPT.AU -1.5%; Shell said to sell its 2.4% stake in Beach Energy - Australian press
- Hyundai Heavy 009540.KR -1.8%%; UBS Cuts 009540.KR to Sell from Neutral
- China Everbright Internationa; 257.hk -5.4%; Cut at Daiwa
- Southern Cross Media SXL.AU -14.22%; Nine Entertainment NEC.AU +5.1%; Nine sells 9.99% stake
After Hours Summary: COST +2% following earnings, MENT +6% on Elliot active stake news, WMT +0.5% with Costco/analyst initiation... CAMP -13% on earnings/guidance, THLD -70% discontinuing Tarloxotinib Program/cutting staff newsAfter Hours Gainers:
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: AEHR +7.4% (light volume), COST +1.7% (also responds to the partial jury verdict returned in the case brought by Tiffany)
Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: AUPH +13.3% (announces that voclosporin achieves primary and all pre-specified secondary endpoints in Phase IIb AURA-LV study for Lupus Nephritis), MENT +5.6% (Elliot Mgmt discloses 8.1% active stake -- has communicated with management and Board about a broad range of operational and strategic matters), OZM +5.1% (confirms reaching settlements w/ the DOJ and the SEC; will pay a total penalty of $412 mln; entered into a securities purchase agreement with certain executive managing directors), CEMP +4.4% (light volume - announces interim results showing anti-NASH effects in the first six nonalcoholic steatohepatitis patients dosed with solithromycin in a Phase 2 study), NVFY +1.2% (to sell NOVA BVI and its subsidiaries for $8.5 mln to Kuka Design), HLIT +1.2% (Comcast confirms 6.6% passive stake -- the cos entered into a warrant agreement this week), ZNGA +1.1% (appoints Gerard Griffin as CFO effective immediately), WMT +0.5% (initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $90), AA +0.5% (approves proposed separation; separation is scheduled to become effective before the opening of the market on November 1, 2016), PSX +0.3% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman)
After Hours Losers:
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CAMP -12.9%,
Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: THLD -67% (to discontinue investment in its Tarloxotinib Program after interim data; implementing workforce reduction), MIRN -17.1% (Mirna Therapeutics Investigational New Drug for MRX34 has been placed on full clinical hold), ABUS -13.9% (reports interim results from the first two cohorts of the ongoing ARB-1467 Phase II multi-dose clinical trial in chronically infected HBV patients), VNRX -8.5% (announces proposed public offering of common stock), DCTH -5.8% (intends to offer shares of its common stock and warrants to purchase shares of common stock in an underwritten public offering), STAY -4.6% (commences 13 mln paired shares offering by certain selling stockholders affiliated with Centerbridge Partners, Paulson & Co and The Blackstone Group), IRT -0.9% (prices public offering of 25 mln shares of common stock at $9.00 per share for total gross proceeds of $225.0 mln)
Closing Market Summary: Deutsche Bank Fears Startle MarketThe stock market ended the Thursday affair on a lower note as concerns regarding Deutsche Bank's (DB 11.48, -0.82) capital position weighed on the major averages. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (-1.1%) finished slightly behind the Nasdaq Composite (-0.9%) and the S&P 500 (-0.9%).
Equity indices began the day on a quiet note, looking to consolidate after yesterday's oil-fueled risk rally. The benchmark index occupied a narrow nine-point trading range through the first half of trade as participants mulled over a recently-minted production cap agreement. OPEC surprised participants yesterday by announcing that it would limit production to between 32.5 million and 33.0 million barrels per day. However, specific terms of the agreement will not be released or put into effect until the oil collective meets on November 30.
The broader market broke lower near midday as reports indicated that approximately ten hedge funds have reduced their exposure to Deutsche Bank in recent days. The stock was down as much as 9.1%, ending lower by 6.7%. The German lender issued a statement in the afternoon, asserting that there had been recent outflows from its hedge fund business, but that Deutsche Bank's prime brokerage division remains profitable. Recall that capital concerns increased after the U.S. Department of Justice requested that the bank pay $14 billion to settle civil claims associated with the residential mortgage-backed securities crisis. The major averages notched session lows shortly after midday as heavily-weighted financials (-1.5%) and health care (-1.8%) led to the downside. The S&P 500 settled lower by 0.9%, testing technical support near the 2153/2151 price level. All eleven sectors finished in the red with utilities (-1.5%), financials (-1.5%), and health care (-1.8%) underperforming while energy (-0.1%) led to the upside.
The economically-sensitive financial sector (-1.5%) moved lower in sympathy with Deutsche Bank (DB 11.48, -0.82) as participants expressed concerns over the global banking landscape. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo (WFC 44.37, -0.94) declined 2.1% after CEO John Stumpf testified before the House Financial Services Committee. The congressional hearing was again heated as lawmakers questioned the sales tactics that led to the creation of more than two million fake deposit and credit-card accounts. The broader space extended its monthly loss to 4.2%, trailing the remaining sectors.
In the health care sector (-1.8%), biotechnology underperformed, evidenced by the 3.1% decline in the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 285.87, -9.21). Mylan (MYL 38.47, -1.75) fell 4.4% after the CMS indicated that it had previously informed the company that it had misclassified its EpiPen device under the Medicaid Drug Rebate program. Recall that a group of U.S. lawmakers have recently pushed for the DoJ to investigate Mylan for this misclassification.
In the technology sector (-0.6%), the high-beta chipmakers outperformed, evidenced by the 1.3% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. NXP Semiconductor (NXPI 96.12, +13.88) rallied 16.9% after reports indicated that Qualcomm (QCOM 67.45, +4.00) could be looking to acquire the company. Conversely, Apple (AAPL 112.17, -1.78) underperformed after it was removed from Barclay's Top Pick list. The firm also lowered its 2016 smartphone revenue and unit growth estimates for Apple.
The commodity-sensitive energy sector (-0.1%) finished at the top of the board as crude oil extended its rally. WTI crude finished higher by 1.4% ($47.73/bbl; +$0.66), showing marked resilience to the downturn in the broader market.
Treasuries ended on a higher note with yields slipping through the curve. The yield on the 10-yr note finished lower by one basis point at 1.56%.
Today's participation was above the recent average as more than 971 million shares changed hands on the NYSE floor.
Today's economic data included the third estimate of second quarter GDP, weekly initial claims, International Trade in Goods for August, and Pending Home Sales for August:
- The third estimate for second quarter GDP checked in at 1.4% (consensus 1.3%), up from the second estimate of 1.1%. The GDP Deflator was unchanged at 2.3%.
- Initial claims for the week ending September 24 increased by 3,000 to 254,000 (consensus 259,000), marking the 82nd straight week they have been below 300,000.
- Continuing claims for the week ending September 17 decreased by 46,000 to 2.062 million.
- The Advance International Trade in Goods report for August showed a narrowing in the goods deficit to $58.4 billion from an upwardly revised $58.8 billion (from -$59.3 billion) in July.
- Pending Home Sales for August fell by 2.4% while the consensus expected an increase of 1.0%. Separately, the July reading was revised to 1.2% from 1.3%.
Tomorrow's economic data will include Personal Income (consensus +0.2%), Personal Spending consensus +0.2%), and Core PCE Prices (consensus +0.2%) for August, which will each be released at 8:30 ET. Separately, Chicago PMI (consensus 52.0) and the final reading of the University of Michigan Sentiment Index for September (consensus 90.0) will cross the wires at 9:45 ET and 10:00 ET, respectively.
- Russell 2000: +9.2% YTD
- S&P 500: +5.2% YTD
- Nasdaq: +5.2% YTD
- Dow Jones: +4.1% YTD