>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 24th of November 20

>>> Up
* Autoliv Raised to Neutral at Goldman, PT $95
* Blue Solutions Raised to Hold at HSBC, PT EU9.50
* Carnival Raised to Outperform at Bernstein
* Castellum Raised to Buy at ABG Sundal, PT SEK130
* Hunting Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse
* Kloeckner Raised to Hold at Berenberg, PT EU10.50
* Marks & Spencer Raised to Buy at AlphaValue
* Michelin Raised to Buy at Goldman
* Porsche Raised to Buy at Goldman
* Secure Trust Bank Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt
* VW Raised to Buy at Goldman

>>> Down
* Daimler Cut to Neutral at Goldman
* Elior Group Cut to Add at AlphaValue
* Norwegian Cruise Cut to Market Perform at Bernstein
* Peugeot Cut to Neutral at Goldman
* Valeo Cut to Sell at Goldman
* Volvo Cut to Sell at Goldman

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
* Elekta Rated New Sell at Citi, PT SEK66
* Paddy Power Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt, PT 11000p
* Philips Rated New Buy at Citi, PT EU32

>>> Call
>> Stock
*ADECCO ADDED TO HSBC EUROPE SUPER 10 PORTFOLIO; ESSILOR EXITS

NY Mag : Experts Urge Clinton Campaign to Challenge Election Results in 3 Swing

Experts Urge Clinton Campaign to Challenge Election Results in 3 Swing States


Hillary Clinton is being urged by a group of prominent computer scientists and election lawyers to call for a recount in three swing states won by Donald Trump, New York has learned. The group, which includes voting-rights attorney John Bonifaz and J. Alex Halderman, the director of the University of Michigan Center for Computer Security and Society, believes they’ve found persuasive evidence that results in Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania may have been manipulated or hacked. The group is so far not speaking on the record about their findings and is focused on lobbying the Clinton team in private.

Last Thursday, the activists held a conference call with Clinton campaign chairman John Podesta and campaign general counsel Marc Elias to make their case, according to a source briefed on the call. The academics presented findings showing that in Wisconsin, Clinton received 7 percent fewer votes in counties that relied on electronic-voting machines compared with counties that used optical scanners and paper ballots. Based on this statistical analysis, Clinton may have been denied as many as 30,000 votes; she lost Wisconsin by 27,000. While it’s important to note the group has not found proof of hacking or manipulation, they are arguing to the campaign that the suspicious pattern merits an independent review — especially in light of the fact that the Obama White House has accused the Russian government of hacking the Democratic National Committee.

According to current tallies, Trump has won 290 Electoral College votes to Clinton’s 232, with Michigan’s 16 votes not apportioned because the race there is still too close to call. It would take overturning the results in both Wisconsin (10 Electoral College votes) and Pennsylvania (20 votes), in addition to winning Michigan’s 16, for Clinton to win the Electoral College. There is also the complicating factor of “faithless electors,” or members of the Electoral College who do not vote according to the popular vote in their states. At least six electoral voters have said they would not vote for Trump, despite the fact that he won their states.

The Clinton camp is running out of time to challenge the election. According to one of the activists, the deadline in Wisconsin to file for a recount is Friday; in Pennsylvania, it’s Monday; and Michigan is next Wednesday. Whether Clinton will call for a recount remains unclear. The academics so far have only a circumstantial case that would require not just a recount but a forensic audit of voting machines. Also complicating matters, a senior Clinton adviser said, is that the White House, focused on a smooth transfer of power, does not want Clinton to challenge the election result. Clinton communications director Jennifer Palmieri did not respond to a request for comment. But some Clinton allies are intent on pushing the issue. This afternoon, Huma Abedin’s sister Heba encouraged her Facebook followers to lobby the Justice Department to audit the 2016 vote. “Call the DOJ…and tell them you want the votes audited,” she wrote. “Even if it’s busy, keep calling.”

>>> HP reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; reaffi

HPQ --> -2.2% in after hours

HP reports EPS in-line, beats on revs; guides Q1 EPS below consensus; reaffirms FY17 EPS, in-line
  • Reports Q4 (Oct) earnings of $0.36 per share, in-line with the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.36; revenues rose 5.2% year/year to $12.51 bln vs the $11.88 bln Capital IQ Consensus.
    • Personal Systems net revenue was up 4% year over year (up 5% in constant currency) with a 4.3% operating margin.
      • Commercial net revenue increased 3% and Consumer net revenue increased 7%.
      • Total units were up 5% with Notebooks units up 9% and Desktops units up 1%.
    • Printing net revenue was down 8% year over year (down 6% in constant currency) with a 14.0% operating margin.
      • Total hardware units were up 1% from the prior-year period, with Commercial hardware units up 10% and Consumer hardware units down 3%.
      • Supplies net revenue was down 12% (down 10% in constant currency).
  • Co issues downside guidance for Q1, sees EPS of $0.35-0.38 vs. $0.38 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
  • Co reaffirms guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $1.55-1.65 vs. $1.60 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.

>>> US Close Dow +0.12% S&P +0.22% Nasdaq +0.33% Russell +0.92%

Closing Market Summary: Averages Notch Fresh Highs; Dow Tops 19000

The stock market ended the Tuesday affair on a modestly higher note with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (+0.4%), Nasdaq Composite (+0.3%), and S&P 500 (+0.2%) carving out fresh record highs. The domestically-oriented Russell 2000 (+0.9%) also notched a new all-time high, extending its November gain to 12.0%.

Equity indices jumped out of the gate as a positive tilt in global markets helped Wall Street build on yesterday's gain. However, the broader market pulled back after the opening hour, as crude oil extended its loss. The energy component was under pressure as participants continued assessing the likelihood of an OPEC supply cap agreement. Reports circulated this afternoon that Iran, Iraq, and Indonesia have expressed some misgivings about their participation in a proposed deal. The oil collective is scheduled to meet on November 30 to vote on potential supply control measures. WTI crude finished down 0.4% ($48.07/bbl; -$0.20). 

The major averages were able to inch higher in the afternoon as the heavily-weighted consumer discretionary sector (+1.2%) and industrials (+0.5%) outperformed. Meanwhile, the economically-sensitive financial group (+0.1%) erased a slim loss despite modest flattening in the yield curve. 

The S&P 500 (+0.2%) settled near its best level of the day, staying above the 2200 price level, which was revisited a few times during the session. Nine sectors ended in the green with telecom services (+2.1%), real estate (+1.7%), and consumer discretionary (+1.2%) outperforming. Conversely, health care (-1.4%) and energy (UNCH) ended with the only losses.

In the health care space (-1.4%), Medtronic (MDT 73.60, -6.98) tumbled 8.7% after the company reported some mixed quarterly results and provided below-consensus earnings guidance for fiscal year 2017. Meanwhile, biotechnology continued to give back some of its post-election gain as the iShares Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (IBB 281.36, -5.35) fell 1.9%. The ETF rallied in the wake of the election as participants dialed back concerns about a possible introduction of price controls.

Retail names displayed relative strength in the consumer discretionary space (+1.2%) as the SPDR S&P Retail ETF (XRT 46.60, +1.06) gained 2.3%. Home improvement retailers outperformed on the heels of some better-than-expected housing data. Separately, discount retailer Dollar Tree (DLTR 88.68, +6.69) surged 8.2% after reporting mixed quarterly results and guiding fourth-quarter revenue near the high end of consensus estimates. 

The high-beta chipmakers outperformed in the technology sector (+0.1%), evidenced by the 1.1% gain in the PHLX Semiconductor Index. Analog Devices (ADI 72.89, +3.07, +4.4%) led the index after the company beat analysts' estimates for the fourth quarter and issued upbeat revenue guidance for the first quarter. 

In the financial sector (+0.1%), banking names led as the SPDR S&P Bank ETF (KBE 40.73, +0.23) finished higher by 0.6%. Separately, credit service names finished on a lower note with Visa (V 79.93, -1.76) falling 2.2%. The stock was under pressure after the company agreed to remedial actions related to the EMV transition in the United States.

Treasuries were little changed with the yield on the 2-yr note finishing flat at 1.08% while the yield on the benchmark 10-yr note slipped one basis point to 2.31%. 

Today's trading volume was below the recent average of one billion as fewer than 893 million shares changed hands at the NYSE floor.

Today's economic data was limited to the Existing Home Sales Report for October: 

  • Existing home sales increased 2.0% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.60 million in October from an upwardly revised 5.49 million (from 5.47 million) in September.
    • The October uptick represented the second consecutive monthly increase, following declines in July and August.

Tomorrow's data will include the 7:00 ET release of the weekly MBA Mortgage Index while weekly Initial Claims (consensus 243k) and Durable Orders for October (consensus 1.1%) will each be released at 8:30 ET. The FHFA Housing Price Index for September will cross the wires at 9:00 ET. Separately, the New Home Sales Report for October (consensus 587k) and the final reading of the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey for November (consensus 91.6) are each slated to be released at 10:00 ET. The day's data will be capped off with the FOMC Minutes from the November 2 meeting, which will cross the wires at 14:00 ET. 

  • Russell 2000: +17.3% YTD
  • Dow Jones: +9.2% YTD
  • S&P 500: +7.8% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite: +7.6% YTD

REuters - Chinese official optimistic about US trade amid Trump uncertainty

Chinese official optimistic about US trade amid Trump uncertainty

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-china-usa-trump-trade-idUSKBN13H27T?il=0

Chinese Vice Premier Wang Yang said on Tuesday that U.S. policies toward China under President-elect Donald Trump may be uncertain, but he is optimistic because of the U.S. business community's enthusiasm for U.S.-China trade.
At a luncheon with U.S. and Chinese business people and government officials, Wang said he believed that businesses and the U.S. government would ultimately make the "right choices" to take advantage of market opportunities in China's economy.
"What the U.S. government will do we will wait and see, and I think it's difficult to predict, just like the U.S. presidential election," Wang said through an interpreter. "The large crowd here tells us one thing. Although there will be a change in the U.S. government, the passion of the U.S. business community for economic cooperation with China has remained unchanged."
Two weeks after Trump's stunning election on the back of anti-trade sentiment among workers in U.S. industrial states, the president-elect's plans for managing tense relations with China remain unclear.
On the campaign trail, Trump had said China is "killing us" on trade. He threatened to declare Beijing a currency manipulator, levy a 45 percent punitive tariff on all Chinese goods to reduce a massive U.S. trade deficit with China and pull out of the World Trade Organization, the global trade body that allowed China to join in 2001.
As he builds his administration, Trump has added some harsh critics of China's trade practices to his transition team, including Dan DiMicco, a former chief executive officer of steel giant Nucor Corp (NUE.N) and Washington trade lawyer Robert Lighthizer, a former trade negotiator during the Ronald Reagan administration.
Wang made his remarks at the start of a round of talks of the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade (JCCT), which include officials from the two countries who focus on technical issues such as safety and regulatory approvals that can become barriers to trade.
Wang said the JCCT and other forums such as the cabinet-level Strategic and Economic Dialogue talks promoted by the Obama administration have helped to reduce trade tensions between the world's two largest economies.
Wang also said China would continue to offer major opportunities to American companies, including buying more than $8 trillion in total imports over the next five years. China also anticipates $500 billion in foreign direct investment from all countries and investing $720 billion overseas, while 600 million Chinese are expected to travel overseas in the same period, he said.

"This will generate enormous business opportunities for the companies of all countries including the United States," Wang said. "I think in the face of a emerging big market like China, the American companies and government will make the right choices."
Major problems in the U.S.-China relationship would be bad for both economies as well as the global economy, he added.

>>> Italian Referendum - few notes of brokers attached

HSBC
After the election of Donald Trump as US president, market attention is likely to shift to the next big political event, the Italian constitutional referendum on 4 December. The "no" vote continues to lead in the polls, and has led to a significant widening of the spread on Italian government bonds in recent weeks. However, we think that the implications of a 'yes' or 'no' vote in Italy are smaller than the market seems to believe. A 'no' does not necessarily mean early elections. And also the positive implications of a 'yes' in terms of future political stability and ability to make reforms might be diminished now that PM Renzi has opened up to the possibility of diluting the new electoral law (even though the dilution might also reduce the chances of a populist party getting into power).

Equita
«Will youapprovethe Constitutionallaw text regarding: the overcomingof the equal-weightedbicameralism, the reductionof the numberof Parliamentmembers, the containmentof institutions’ costs, the cancellationof Cneland the revisionof ChapterV of the Constitution»… «Yes or No»

Italianelectorsentitledto vote: 47 mn

Italianelectorsexpectedto vote : 30 mn

Stilluncertainelectors: 4.5 mn

Avg. NO –YES spread : 6% = 1.8 mn

Predictingthe referendum outcomestilla closecall giventhe high numberof uncertainvoters. Asof tomorrowno pollswillbe allowedin the press. Ourbase case isfor electionsin early2018 in bothcases, yes or no win.There are 3.5 mnItalian voters resident abroad who have not been captured by polls, 1.1mn of them voted in 2013 national elections as follows:-29% voted for PD, 18% for Monti, 15% for Berlusconi PopolodellaLibertàand 10% for 5Star.

In case of YES winthe ruleson howto appointthe new Senatestillto be defined.Incase of NO weseea verylowprobabilityof Renzistaying. WithinEurope hiscredibilitywouldbe hit. Furthermorein case of NO earlyelectionswouldlikelyleadto a lame parliament


BofA-ML
• Polls suggest a "No" vote in the Italian referendum, but market reaction depends on other factors too. Yes vote = risk-on.

• A narrow "No" where Renzi stays on and bank recaps are unaffected is ok, but risk-off if big "No", Renzi goes and recaps fail

• We cut Banks to neutral. Risk-reward now more balanced given Italy event risk, positioning, valuations & toppy bond yields.
Yes vote=risk-on, narrow no=maybe okay, big no=risk-off

Our European Strategists think a yes vote in the referendum would be a risk on event as it would reinforce PM Renzi’s position and probably make bank recaps easier. A narrow

no, which could see Renzi stay in office, may allow bank recaps to go ahead, while we think a large no which could see the Prime Minister resign would probably be a risk off

event. That would be particularly the case if it cast doubt on the bank recaps.