Reuters - Exclusive: ECB seeks to lend out more bonds to avert market freeze - s

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ecb-policy-bonds-exclusive-idUSKBN13I0YF

The European Central Bank is looking for ways to lend out more of its huge pile of government debt to avert a freeze in the 5.5 trillion euro short-term funding market that underpins the financial system, central bank sources told Reuters.

The ECB has bought more than a trillion euros ($1.06 trillion) of euro zone government bonds in a bid to shore up economic growth and inflation in the euro zone. For the most part the bank is holding these bonds.

By doing so, it has taken away the key ingredient for repurchase agreements, or repos, whereby financial firms lend to each other against collateral, typically high-rated government bonds such as Germany's.

Repo is used by investment funds to finance trading and is regarded by the ECB as a key avenue to transmit its own monetary stimulus to the economy.

A freeze in repo activity risks undoing some of the ECB's stimulus by hampering lending between financial companies and leaving bond markets vulnerable to sharp selloffs.

To avert this, the ECB wants to make it easier for banks to borrow the bonds that it has bought so that they can be used as collateral for repo loans, the sources said.

Possible changes include reducing charges for firms which fail to return on time the bonds they have borrowed, accepting new types of collateral and extending the duration of loans.

"If liquidity dries up there are more fails and banks are more cautious when it comes to making the market," one of the sources said.

The sources added the issue will be discussed at the ECB's Dec. 8 meeting, when rate setters will decide on whether to continue purchases beyond March and ensure they can still find enough bonds to buy.

Any decision on bond lending will depend on what other changes the ECB makes to its asset-purchase program and might not be finalised in December.

The ECB and the Bundesbank declined to comment on the potential changes.

GERMANY

Germany, the only large euro zone country with a top-notch credit rating, is where the problem is at its most severe.

With the ECB now owning more than a quarter of all outstanding German bonds, funds pay up to 1.5 percent to borrow a 10-year Bund, up from some 0.40 percent a year ago, according to Icap data.

This is putting a strain on investors as they face increasingly frequent demands to put up cash or liquid collateral against their derivative positions due to new regulation.

"If a pension fund can’t borrow a bond in time, it may have to sell its own cash bond, foregoing a potential return in the future to fulfill a short-term obligation," Godfried DeVidts of the International Capital Market Association industry body said.

"So basically the pension funds are getting poorer and the pensioners too."

But any decision would then have to be implemented by national central banks, which own the bulk of the debt bought by the ECB and bear the risk for their own bond-lending schemes.

This means the most radical proposals may run into resistance, the sources said.

Both the Bundesbank and the ECB have already taken some steps towards making their bonds easier to borrow.

In late September the Bundesbank started to lend out German government debt directly to dealers, rather than only via its agent.

But for the moment such loans are only extended in exchange for other German debt, limited to a week and subject to a number of constraints.

Last week the ECB said it would give borrowers more flexibility in deciding when they settle their loans, in a bid to limit the number of fails.

"(The change) can help prevent settlement fails in the market, as counterparties can borrow to cover short positions that they only know about on the value date," an ECB spokesman said.

>>> A pager in the Corriere Della Sera is just out, putting some more light on t

A pager in the Corriere Della Sera is just out, putting some more light on the IT PM strategy.
And it is really market unfriendly if you ask me.

So, quickly Key points:

If the No wins: Renzi will refuse to accept to form a new Gov to make sure everyone (in Italy and in Europe) he is the only choice everyone has according to persons close to him. Then 2 choices: 1) He might consider to be back to the government but not before playing it very hard, and creating a prolonged political deadlock. THIS IS A WORST CASE FOR MARKETS 2) Padoan PM and Renzi back to head of the PD preparing new elections, with any reform momentum dead for months as the only goal for the Gov would be to form a new electoral law. From what we understand reading press option 1) is the preferred so far with Renzi telling to its close guard: "they will beg me to stay, because there are no other choices or alternative leader: they can only have 1 Gov". He also added that "Italy can't have a weak gov at the G7 in May...".
If the yes lose narrowly by 2/3%: Go as soon as possible to new elections. Guerini - the vice of Renzi saying yesterday that an new electoral law can be worked out very quickly and new elections could be as soon as this summer. However it could be much sooner if everything goes smoothly: Increasingly in the PD Party April 2017 is the target for early elections.
It match what Renzi said above....

Anyway you spin it: Uncertainty on Italy will be back..

(HSBC) Europe Super Ten Adding Adecco Removing Essilor

Adding Adecco (ADEN VX; Buy, CP CHF62.0; TP CHF73.0)
We like Adecco, a leading company in the European staffing industry which is
currently trading towards the lower end of mid-cycle multiples relative to the broader
industrial sector. Currently the stock is trading at a c26% discount to its historical
relative multiple. In a slow economic growth environment, given their strong cash flow
and capital discipline, staffers are cheaper relative to others than in previous cycles.
Moreover, key leading indicators for the staffing industry continue to support in a slow
growth cycle. If inflation stays muted, low financial gearing and net positive cash on
their balance sheet should help staffing companies sustain their current dividend
levels, making them an attractive investment opportunity.

Removing Essilor (EI FP; Buy, CP EUR101.8; TP EUR137.0)
We still have a Buy rating on Essilor but remove it from the portfolio because we
believe that Adecco offers a more attractive investment opportunity.

Le Figaro : EXCLUSIF - «La situation du nucléaire est très préoccupante», selon

EXCLUSIF - «La situation du nucléaire est très préoccupante», selon le président de l’Autorité de sûreté

Après la découverte, au printemps 2015, d’un défaut dans la cuve du futur réacteur EPR de Flamanville, l’Autorité de sûreté nucléaire (ASN) a déclenché une campagne de contrôle sans précédent. Elle est loin d’être terminée. Son président, Pierre-Franck Chevet, souligne que la situation est « très préoccupante ».

>>> What to look at today - 24th of November 2016

Dow +0.12% S&P +0.22% Nasdaq +0.33% Russell +0.92%
US Mkt close slightly higher, Open highs but trade lower with Crude. Reports circulated this afternoon that Iran, Iraq, and Indonesia have expressed some misgivings about their participation in a proposed deal. The oil collective is scheduled to meet on November 30 to vote on potential supply control measures. WTI crude finished down 0.4% ($48.07/bbl; -$0.20). Nine sectors ended in the green with telecom services (+2.1%), real estate (+1.7%), and consumer discretionary (+1.2%) outperforming. Conversely, health care (-1.4%) and energy (UNCH) ended with the only losses. MDT -8.7% after Earnings, DLTR +8.2% on earnings. Volume were below average at 893mil shares. US After Hours NSPR +9.5% (after +19% during regular hour), VEEV +6.1%, GME +2.6%, CAL +1.9%, NMBL -10.8%, URBN -9.6%, HPQ -2.3%, HPE -1.8%. Crude oil prices retreat despite the draw in API inventories. Offshore Yuan falls to new all-time lows through CNH6.92 despite stronger fix. Japan Closed for Holiday. US Commerce Sec Pritzer: China has warned of a retaliation if US levies tariffs as threatened by Pres-elect Trump; Abandoning TPP gives China an advantage; Will hurt US interests in Asia and globally.

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng +0.02% CSI +0.20% Shanghai -0.21%

Eur$ 1.0636 CNH 6.9184 CNH 6.8912 JPY 110.90 GBP 1.2409 CHF 1.0099 RUB 63.764 WTI $ 47.87 - 0.33%

S&P +0.06% EuorStoxx +0.33% Dax +0.25% SMI +0.12%

Macro :
- BofAML’s Subramanian Raises S&P 500’s Year-End Target to 2,100
- OPEC Said to Defer Question of Iran, Iraq Cuts for Ministers
- Gold Falls From Grace as Shares Surge to Records, Fed to Tighten

Keep an eye on :
- ABG SM : Abengoa Shareholders Approve Details of Creditor Deal
- ABLX BB : Ablynx 9-Mo. Net EU10.9 Mln, Reiterates 2016 Cash Burn Forecast
- AIR FP : Airbus Gets Second License From U.S. OFAC to Export Jets to Iran
- AIR FP : Airbus Cutting 780 Jobs as Part of Reorganization, Echos Says
- AREVA FP : France’s ASN Says French Nuclear Situation Worrying: Figaro
- POP SM : Banco Popular Board Members Seeking Chairman Removal: Expansion
- BKIA SM : Spain to Seek to Sell Bankia Share Blocks of 15%-20%: Cinco
- DSM NA : DSM Reinstated Outperform at Credit Suisse, PT EU65.50
- EDF FP : France’s ASN Says French Nuclear Situation Worrying: Figaro
- G IM : Generali Targets 15% Productivity Increase; Keeps 2018 Goals
- IFX GY : Infineon 4Q Segment Result Misses Ests.; Sees 1Q Rev. Decline
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Loses Bid to Stop Pilot Strike at Appeals Court
- SAF FP : French State Selling 1.39% of Safran, to Remain Biggest Holder
- SAP GY : SAP Says Investing Heavily in Machine Learning: Handelsblatt
- SDRL NO : Seadrill in Advanced Stage for Agreement Talks With Banks
- STL NO : Petrobras Concludes $2.5b Sale of Oil Block to Statoil
- TIT IM : Vivendi owns 23.15% of Telecom ITalia, bought shares in the market, had been diluted to 21.91%
- TEN FP : Tenaris, Vallourec Cut at Macquarie on Oil Service Recovery View
- UN01 GY : Uniper Said to Plan Cutting More Than 500 Jobs: Rheinische Post
- VIV FP : Vivendi owns 23.15% of Telecom ITalia, bought shares in the market, had been diluted to 21.91%
- VOW3 GY : Delphi Automotive Drops 7.5% After VW’s E-Car Push, Trump Speech
- VOW3 GY : VW Won’t Sell New Diesel Models in U.S.: Diess to Handelsblatt
- VOW3 GY : VW Upgraded as ‘Skies Clearing,’ Autos Face Headwinds: Goldman