VIV indicated -1%
Spirits over beer, with a splash of soft drinks
Stock calls: Our top picks are Pernod, Diageo and CCH. More rational competition in Brazil and a return to profit growth in the US could help improve sentiment on ABInbev. We downgrade Heineken to Underperform from Neutral due to a weaker growth outlook in Mexico and potentially increased competition in Vietnam, the main growth drivers in recent years, as well as building margin pressures. We also downgrade Remy and Refresco to Neutral after recent outperformance and relative re-rating.
Prefer spirits over beer: We reiterate our preference for spirits over beer in FY17, noting i) higher exposure to improving US discretionary spend, ii) improving momentum in Scotch and Cognac (in particular China) volumes following three years of weakness, iii) improving margin visibility from selfhelp and mix, iv) transactional FX tailwinds, and v) evidence of improving cash conversion and de-leveraging. We downgrade Heineken to Underperform, Remy and Refresco to Neutral and adjust our target prices.
ML
* TECHNIPFMC - newco starts trading today, dual listing. FTI FP and FTI US.....
TULLOW - Positive. Erut-1 oil discovery in Kenya, is 25m of net pay (323)...+3%
CAIRN ENERGY - Capex guide lower than est. Operationally nothing new (249)..+3%
STANCHART - We UPGRADE to Buy.Raise '18 earnings by 18% on higher rates(745)+3%
GREGGS - FY to be slightly ahead with LfL sales +4.2% & sales +7% (1020)....+2%
BEIERSDORF - Beat. Q4 OSG 4.2% v 3% cons. FY16 EBIT guide confirmed (82)..+1-2%
ROLLS - Fine is bigger than expected but cash flow comes in better (677)..+1-2%
BATS - Bump. Agrees to buy rest of reynolds for about $59.64/shr (4806.6)...+1%
CASINO - Reassuring. Sales +9.1% v BAML +8.7%. Org growth +5.1% v +4.1% (50)+1%
ACCOR - In talks with investors to sell HotelInvest, valued at EU6.6b (38)..+1%
ENGIE - In talks to sell LNG-Terminal operator Elengy to GRTgaz (11.66).....u/c
PFW - Sees each area of ops meeting internal forecasts for the year (2866)..u/c
TEF - To take EU800m provision in 2016 accounts; Expansion reports (9.092)..u/c
WORLDPAY - Sentiment negative that UK CFO is leaving to join Wonga (288)..-0.5%
VIVENDI - Agcom;Any attempt to cross 30% Mediaset ownership unacceptable(18)-1%
MINERS - Copper -1.7%, Iron Ore fut -2.4% with BHP OZ -0.22%, RIO OZ -0.8%..-1%
RIO - Prodn inline. Cons likely to U/G CY16 ests. Trading lower in AUS(3453)-1%
ALSTOM - Q3 order 3% miss. Good order intake from Europe & Middle East (26).-2%
MEDIASET - Italian reg says any attempt by Vivendi to cross 30% not ok (4)..-3%
ZALANDO - Rev growth of 25-26% v 29-30% cons. FY margins exp 5.6-6.2% (38)-3-4%
CSFB
Accor +1% Positive update on value of booster portfolio
Alstom -0.5% Q3 sales/orders a touch light, but well flagged
Africa Oil +3% Found oil...Erut-1 well in Block 13T, Northern Kenya
ASML M/P CS REINSTATE with NEUTRAL (Long term story unchanged)
Autoneum +1-2% Net sales CHF2.153b vs cons 2.189b, N America/Asia better
BATS +1% Agrees to buy the remaining 57.8% of Reynolds
Beiersdorf +0.5% 2016 Rev EU 6.75b est EU 6.73b, Confirms EBIT guidance
Bureau Veri -2-3% CS DOUBLE DOWNGRADE TO UNDERPERFORM (Growth headwinds)
Cairn Energy +1% Net cash better, $335m vs cons $265m
Casino -0.5% 2016 sales miss estimates as French retail slows
Geberit +3% Organic growth strong and margin guidance increased
Givaudan M/P Purchased active international
Greggs +1-2% Total sales ahead, FY anticipated to be slightly ahead
Heineken -1-2% CS DOWNGRADE to UNDERPERFORM (Weaker growth)
HSBC +0.5% Outperforming in Hong Kong
Intertek -1-2% CS DOWNGRADE to UNDERPERFORM (Growth headwinds)
Komax +1-2% FY16 Order intake 3.5% ahead, FY16 Sales 3% ahead
Mediaset It -5% Italy regulator may stop Vivendi Mediaset takeover
Miners -1-2% Copper -1.70%, Brent -0.30%, Iron Ore -3.00%, China UNCH
Peugeot -1-2% Le Parisien reports that Euro tests highlight anomalies
Provident Fin M/P Trading update in line with expectations
Remy -1% CS DOWNGRADE to NEUTRAL (Valuation)
Refresco -1% CS DOWNGRADE to NEUTRAL (Valuation)
Rio -2% FY16 production. Mostly inline. Copper small miss
Rolls Royce +2% Reached agreement to end bribery cases in US, UK and Brazil
SGS -1-2% CS DOWNGRADE to NEUTRAL (Growth headwinds)
Tullow +2-3% Found oil...Erut-1 well in Block 13T, Northern Kenya
Vivendi -1% Italy regulator may stop Vivendi Mediaset takeover
Zalando -3-4% Sales guidance a touch below
MainFirst Pre Mkt Indications
*CASINO-FY Sales 36.03b(40.86),French Pft 500m,Retail -0.6%.......U/C
*ALSTOM-Q3 Sales €1.655b(1.792),Cofirms 2020 targets..............-1%
*GIVAUDAN-Acquires Activ,adds 40m to cos 2016 Sales,no terms......U/C
*GEBERIT-Q4 Sales 636.6m(613),FY Ebitda Margin around 28.5%.......+1.5%
*LINDT-FY Sales 3.9b(3.91),Oragnic Sales Grth 6%,Tax lower........+2.5%
*DBK-May hold back up to 90% of Bonuses says the New York Post....-0.5%
*AMPLIFON-Plans to acquire Retail Chains in Portugal & France.....+0.5%
*RATIONAL-FY Sales €613m(615.5),Ebit Margin €167m.................+0.25%
*RR-Sees FY Pft ahead of views,Reaches agreement with UK/SFO......+1%
*SOLVAY-Restates 15/15 Fin Info,reclassifies Acetow,Vinythai......-1%
*TELEFONICA-To take €800m provision in 2016 accounts-Expansion....-0.25%
*AUTONEUM-FY Net Sales 2.15b(2.19),See higher Op Margin YoY.......U/C
*KOMAX-FY Sales 370m(358.9),Orders 370.2m(357.5),+ve on Auto......+1%
*ACCOR-In talks with investors to sell Hotelinvest for €6.6b......+1%
*BEIERSDORF-FY Rev 6.75b(6.73),Q4 Organic Grth 4.1%(3.3),o/lk ok..+1.4%
*ZALANDO-Q4 Rev 1.086-1.094(1.14),Ebit 81-104m(93),Margin inline..-4%
BAT to acquire remaining 57.8% stake in Reynolds in USD 49.4bn deal
17 JAN 2017
British American Tobacco p.l.c. ("BAT") and Reynolds American Inc. ("Reynolds"), have agreed the terms of a recommended offer for BAT to acquire the remaining 57.8% of Reynolds it does not already own. The transaction has been unanimously approved by the Transaction Committee of independent Reynolds directors established to evaluate the BAT offer. The transaction has also been approved by the Boards of Reynolds and BAT.
Agreed Terms
Agreed Terms
- Reynolds shareholders will receive for each Reynolds share USD 29.44 in cash and 0.5260 BAT ordinary shares which shall be represented by BAT American Depository Receipts (ADRs) listed on the New York Stock Exchange
- Based on BAT's share price and the Dollar-Sterling exchange rate as at market close on 16 January 2017, this implies a total current value of USD 59.64 per Reynolds share and a total current value of approximately USD 49.4bn for the 57.8% of Reynolds not already owned by BAT
- Represents a premium of 26% over the closing price of Reynolds common stock on 20 October 2016 (being the last day prior to BAT's announcement of a proposal to merge with Reynolds)
- NYSE-listed Level III ADRs representing BAT ordinary shares will be issued following registration under US securities laws
Creates a stronger, truly global tobacco and Next Generation Products ("NGP") company to deliver sustained long-term profit growth and returns with:
- A balanced presence in high growth emerging markets and high profitability developed markets, combined with direct access to the attractive US market
- A portfolio of strong, growing global brands, bringing together ownership of Newport, Kent and Pall Mall
- A truly global NGP business, with a world class pipeline of vapour and tobacco heating products and access to the fastest growing NGP markets
- At least USD 400m of annualised cost synergies anticipated by the end of year 3, supporting continued margin improvement
- EPS and DPS accretive in the first full year and targeting mid-single digit EPS accretion in year 3, with the transaction beating the Group's WACC for the US by year 5.
- Enhanced cash generation with increased control of a significant proportion of group cash flows
- Continued commitment to BAT's dividend policy with a payout ratio of at least 65%
- A continuing strong financial profile, targeting a solid investment grade credit rating through progressive deleveraging
BAT's Chief Executive, Nicandro Durante commented:
"We are very pleased to have reached an agreement with the Transaction Committee and Board of Reynolds and we look forward to putting the recommended offer to shareholders. We have been shareholders in Reynolds since 2004 and we have benefited from the success of the present management team's strategy, including its acquisition of Lorillard, which we supported with our own investment in 2015. BAT has consistently executed a winning strategy and has a proven track record of delivering strong results and returns for its shareholders while successfully investing for future growth. Our combination with Reynolds will benefit from utilising the best talent from both organisations. It will create a stronger, global tobacco and NGP business with direct access for our products across the most attractive markets in the world. We believe this will drive continued, sustainable profit growth and returns for shareholders long into the future."
Key terms of the transaction
The transaction will be effected through a US statutory merger in which Reynolds shareholders, other than BAT, will receive USD 29.44 in cash and 0.5260 BAT ordinary shares which shall be represented by BAT ADRs listed on the New York Stock Exchange for each of their Reynolds shares.
Based on BAT's share price and the Dollar-Sterling exchange rate as at market close on 16 January 2017, the purchase price implies a total current value of USD 49.4bn for the remaining 57.8% of Reynolds not owned by BAT, comprised of approximately USD 24.4bn in cash and USD 25.0bn in BAT ADRs.
Based on BAT's share price and the Dollar-Sterling exchange rate as at market close on 16 January 2017, the agreed terms represent a premium of: 26% over the closing price of Reynolds common stock on 20 October 2016 (the last day prior to BAT's announcement of a proposal to merge with Reynolds) and a current Enterprise Value of USD 97bn which, based on reported LTM EBITDA to 30 September 2016, represents an attractive multiple of 16.9x.
The cash component of the transaction will be financed by a combination of existing cash resources, new bank credit lines and the issuance of new bonds. A USD 25bn acquisition facility has been entered into with a syndicate of banks to provide financing certainty. The acquisition facility comprises USD 15bn and USD 5bn bridge loans with 1 and 2-year maturities respectively, each with two six month extensions available at BAT's option. In addition, the facility includes two USD 2.5bn term loans with maturities of 3 and 5 years. BAT intends to refinance the bridge loans through capital market debt issuances in due course.
BAT is committed to maintaining a solid investment grade credit rating and intends to delever, targeting a net debt to EBITDA metric of around 3.0x by the end of 2019.
BAT anticipates taking actions to treat legacy Reynolds and BAT debt pari-passu.
Until completion Reynolds shareholders will remain entitled to Reynolds dividends payable in the ordinary course. Reynolds shareholders will be entitled to BAT dividends (with record dates following completion) in respect of their new BAT shares from the time of issuance of such shares.
BAT intends to register BAT ADRs under US securities laws. The transaction is a Class 1 transaction for BAT for the purposes of the UK Listing Rules requiring the approval of BAT shareholders. A shareholder circular, together with notice of the relevant shareholder meeting, will be distributed to BAT shareholders in due course. The parties expect the transaction to close during Q3 2017.
It has been agreed that three of the non-BAT nominated Reynolds directors will join the Board of BAT at closing.
Both the BAT and the Reynolds' Boards will recommend the transaction to their respective shareholders. A break fee of up to USD 1bn is payable by either BAT or Reynolds under certain circumstances. More information is provided in the Closing Conditions section.
Creates a stronger, truly global tobacco and Next Generation Products ("NGP") company
Post transaction, the group will be a larger, broader, more geographically diversified business with a unique footprint providing continued exposure to high growth emerging markets, direct access to the opportunity in the US market, and a broad presence in key developed markets.
Direct access to the attractive US market:
The US is the largest tobacco profit pool globally (ex-China), with the combination of affordable pack prices, relatively high disposable incomes and a growing market for NGPs underpinning the opportunity for long-term profitable growth.
Reynolds is well-positioned as the number two player in the US market, with three out of the four top selling cigarette brands and the benefits from the Lorillard acquisition already evident. Reynolds has a 34% cigarette market share, with Newport the leading brand in menthol, Pall Mall the leading value brand and Natural American Spirit, the fastest growing premium brand. Reynolds' American Snuff subsidiary also has a 33% share of the growing moist snuff segment, led by its Grizzly brand.
BAT has a successful track record of developing strong brands and growing market share through a consistent focus on product quality and innovation, enabling it to build on Reynolds' existing share growth momentum.
Significant presence in high growth emerging markets:
BAT has a significant presence in emerging markets across South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia and emerging markets will account for 60% of volume in the enlarged group. Over the last 5 years, revenue per pack in these markets has grown at more than twice the rate compared to developed markets. With generally low cigarette pack prices and expectations of continued growth in consumer disposable income over the long term, the future profit growth opportunity remains strong. BAT sees emerging markets as the source of future profit growth for the BAT group and developed markets as the source of current profit growth.
Portfolio of strong, global brands:
BAT has a proven track record of developing strong, global brands driven by innovation and product quality. The Global Drive Brand portfolio of Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall and Rothmans has grown volume at an average of 7% per annum over the last 3 years, gaining more than 200bps share over the period. The transaction also brings together the Newport, Kent and Pall Mall brands under common ownership.
Establishes a truly global NGP business with a world class pipeline:
The combined business will be the only truly global company in the fast growing NGP category, with a unique opportunity to leverage scale and insights across the largest and fastest growing NGP markets and categories.
BAT's multi category strategy in NGPs is aimed at satisfying different consumer moments, with the capability of effectively addressing rapidly developing consumer behaviours. Based on our estimated share of the global vapour market outside the US, BAT is already the largest international company in the category, having successfully launched a portfolio of products in the 5 largest vapour markets in Europe. This includes leadership positions in the United Kingdom and Poland. In December 2016, Glo, an innovative tobacco heating product, was launched in Japan with encouraging early results.
In addition, Reynolds' Vuse is one of the leading vapour brands sold in retail in the world's largest vapour market.
The transaction will benefit from the best of the two companies' talented R&D and NGP organisations and allow NGP capabilities to be shared more broadly. Direct access to the US vapour market permits further leverage of this world class pipeline of NGPs.
Delivers sustained long-term profit growth and returns
The transaction on the recommended terms represents an attractive offer to Reynolds shareholders, with a significant cash component and the opportunity to participate in the future returns from the combined company. The transaction also meets BAT's financial criteria for acquisitions.
Direct access to the opportunity in the US market further supports BAT's commitment to delivering long-term profitable growth through consistent revenue growth and margin enhancement of 50-100 basis points on average, per annum.
BAT anticipates realising at least USD 400m in annualised cost synergies by the end of year 3. These synergies will be achieved by leveraging the scale of the combined business, increasing efficiencies and aligning to BAT's Target Operating Model. Cost synergies exist in three main areas - procurement, product development and corporate costs of the combined group. The delivery of these synergy benefits, together with the opportunity for profitable growth in the US market, further supports BAT's commitment to margin enhancement of 50-100 basis points on average, per annum.
BAT's existing manufacturing footprint will be enhanced by the inclusion of the Reynolds Group's high quality production facilities in North Carolina and Tennessee.
The transaction is expected to be accretive to adjusted fully diluted EPS in the first full year, targeting mid-single digit EPS accretion in year 3, and to beat the group WACC for the US by year 5. The transaction will significantly enhance BAT's cash flow generation profile with increased control of what will be a significant proportion of group cash flows and a more diversified FX exposure.
BAT intends to maintain its dividend policy of a minimum 65% payout ratio post transaction and expects the transaction to be accretive to dividends per share.
Closing conditions
The parties expect the transaction to close during the third quarter of 2017, subject to: obtaining affirmative votes from BAT and Reynolds shareholders; obtaining anti-trust approvals in the US and Japan; registration of BAT shares with the SEC; approval of the BAT shares for listing on the LSE and the BAT ADRs on the NYSE; and, other customary conditions. Completion of the merger is not subject to any financing condition.
BAT intends to register BAT ADRs under US securities laws. The transaction is a Class 1 transaction for BAT for the purposes of the UK Listing Rules requiring the approval of BAT shareholders. A shareholder circular, together with notice of the relevant shareholder meeting, will be distributed to BAT shareholders in due course.
If either of the BAT or Reynolds' Boards decides in line with its fiduciary duties to withhold or withdraw its recommendation to its shareholders to vote in favour of the transaction and the merger agreement is terminated, such party would be required to pay a break fee of USD 1bn to the other party. Under certain circumstances, in the event that the merger agreement is terminated and a competing transaction completes within 12 months of that termination, the party completing the competing transaction would be required to pay a break fee of USD 1bn. In the event that (a) certain anti-trust approvals are not obtained or (b) an anti-trust approval is conditioned on disposals or other conduct remedies and BAT does not accept such conditions and therefore does not complete this transaction, BAT must pay an anti-trust break fee of USD 500m to Reynolds. The anti-trust break fee would not be payable in addition to the USD 1bn break fee.
BAT intends to file the merger agreement and other relevant documents with the SEC and such documents may be retrieved free of charge at the SEC's website, http://www.sec.gov. These are expected to be available at some point later today.
"We are very pleased to have reached an agreement with the Transaction Committee and Board of Reynolds and we look forward to putting the recommended offer to shareholders. We have been shareholders in Reynolds since 2004 and we have benefited from the success of the present management team's strategy, including its acquisition of Lorillard, which we supported with our own investment in 2015. BAT has consistently executed a winning strategy and has a proven track record of delivering strong results and returns for its shareholders while successfully investing for future growth. Our combination with Reynolds will benefit from utilising the best talent from both organisations. It will create a stronger, global tobacco and NGP business with direct access for our products across the most attractive markets in the world. We believe this will drive continued, sustainable profit growth and returns for shareholders long into the future."
Key terms of the transaction
The transaction will be effected through a US statutory merger in which Reynolds shareholders, other than BAT, will receive USD 29.44 in cash and 0.5260 BAT ordinary shares which shall be represented by BAT ADRs listed on the New York Stock Exchange for each of their Reynolds shares.
Based on BAT's share price and the Dollar-Sterling exchange rate as at market close on 16 January 2017, the purchase price implies a total current value of USD 49.4bn for the remaining 57.8% of Reynolds not owned by BAT, comprised of approximately USD 24.4bn in cash and USD 25.0bn in BAT ADRs.
Based on BAT's share price and the Dollar-Sterling exchange rate as at market close on 16 January 2017, the agreed terms represent a premium of: 26% over the closing price of Reynolds common stock on 20 October 2016 (the last day prior to BAT's announcement of a proposal to merge with Reynolds) and a current Enterprise Value of USD 97bn which, based on reported LTM EBITDA to 30 September 2016, represents an attractive multiple of 16.9x.
The cash component of the transaction will be financed by a combination of existing cash resources, new bank credit lines and the issuance of new bonds. A USD 25bn acquisition facility has been entered into with a syndicate of banks to provide financing certainty. The acquisition facility comprises USD 15bn and USD 5bn bridge loans with 1 and 2-year maturities respectively, each with two six month extensions available at BAT's option. In addition, the facility includes two USD 2.5bn term loans with maturities of 3 and 5 years. BAT intends to refinance the bridge loans through capital market debt issuances in due course.
BAT is committed to maintaining a solid investment grade credit rating and intends to delever, targeting a net debt to EBITDA metric of around 3.0x by the end of 2019.
BAT anticipates taking actions to treat legacy Reynolds and BAT debt pari-passu.
Until completion Reynolds shareholders will remain entitled to Reynolds dividends payable in the ordinary course. Reynolds shareholders will be entitled to BAT dividends (with record dates following completion) in respect of their new BAT shares from the time of issuance of such shares.
BAT intends to register BAT ADRs under US securities laws. The transaction is a Class 1 transaction for BAT for the purposes of the UK Listing Rules requiring the approval of BAT shareholders. A shareholder circular, together with notice of the relevant shareholder meeting, will be distributed to BAT shareholders in due course. The parties expect the transaction to close during Q3 2017.
It has been agreed that three of the non-BAT nominated Reynolds directors will join the Board of BAT at closing.
Both the BAT and the Reynolds' Boards will recommend the transaction to their respective shareholders. A break fee of up to USD 1bn is payable by either BAT or Reynolds under certain circumstances. More information is provided in the Closing Conditions section.
Creates a stronger, truly global tobacco and Next Generation Products ("NGP") company
Post transaction, the group will be a larger, broader, more geographically diversified business with a unique footprint providing continued exposure to high growth emerging markets, direct access to the opportunity in the US market, and a broad presence in key developed markets.
Direct access to the attractive US market:
The US is the largest tobacco profit pool globally (ex-China), with the combination of affordable pack prices, relatively high disposable incomes and a growing market for NGPs underpinning the opportunity for long-term profitable growth.
Reynolds is well-positioned as the number two player in the US market, with three out of the four top selling cigarette brands and the benefits from the Lorillard acquisition already evident. Reynolds has a 34% cigarette market share, with Newport the leading brand in menthol, Pall Mall the leading value brand and Natural American Spirit, the fastest growing premium brand. Reynolds' American Snuff subsidiary also has a 33% share of the growing moist snuff segment, led by its Grizzly brand.
BAT has a successful track record of developing strong brands and growing market share through a consistent focus on product quality and innovation, enabling it to build on Reynolds' existing share growth momentum.
Significant presence in high growth emerging markets:
BAT has a significant presence in emerging markets across South America, Africa, the Middle East and Asia and emerging markets will account for 60% of volume in the enlarged group. Over the last 5 years, revenue per pack in these markets has grown at more than twice the rate compared to developed markets. With generally low cigarette pack prices and expectations of continued growth in consumer disposable income over the long term, the future profit growth opportunity remains strong. BAT sees emerging markets as the source of future profit growth for the BAT group and developed markets as the source of current profit growth.
Portfolio of strong, global brands:
BAT has a proven track record of developing strong, global brands driven by innovation and product quality. The Global Drive Brand portfolio of Dunhill, Kent, Lucky Strike, Pall Mall and Rothmans has grown volume at an average of 7% per annum over the last 3 years, gaining more than 200bps share over the period. The transaction also brings together the Newport, Kent and Pall Mall brands under common ownership.
Establishes a truly global NGP business with a world class pipeline:
The combined business will be the only truly global company in the fast growing NGP category, with a unique opportunity to leverage scale and insights across the largest and fastest growing NGP markets and categories.
BAT's multi category strategy in NGPs is aimed at satisfying different consumer moments, with the capability of effectively addressing rapidly developing consumer behaviours. Based on our estimated share of the global vapour market outside the US, BAT is already the largest international company in the category, having successfully launched a portfolio of products in the 5 largest vapour markets in Europe. This includes leadership positions in the United Kingdom and Poland. In December 2016, Glo, an innovative tobacco heating product, was launched in Japan with encouraging early results.
In addition, Reynolds' Vuse is one of the leading vapour brands sold in retail in the world's largest vapour market.
The transaction will benefit from the best of the two companies' talented R&D and NGP organisations and allow NGP capabilities to be shared more broadly. Direct access to the US vapour market permits further leverage of this world class pipeline of NGPs.
Delivers sustained long-term profit growth and returns
The transaction on the recommended terms represents an attractive offer to Reynolds shareholders, with a significant cash component and the opportunity to participate in the future returns from the combined company. The transaction also meets BAT's financial criteria for acquisitions.
Direct access to the opportunity in the US market further supports BAT's commitment to delivering long-term profitable growth through consistent revenue growth and margin enhancement of 50-100 basis points on average, per annum.
BAT anticipates realising at least USD 400m in annualised cost synergies by the end of year 3. These synergies will be achieved by leveraging the scale of the combined business, increasing efficiencies and aligning to BAT's Target Operating Model. Cost synergies exist in three main areas - procurement, product development and corporate costs of the combined group. The delivery of these synergy benefits, together with the opportunity for profitable growth in the US market, further supports BAT's commitment to margin enhancement of 50-100 basis points on average, per annum.
BAT's existing manufacturing footprint will be enhanced by the inclusion of the Reynolds Group's high quality production facilities in North Carolina and Tennessee.
The transaction is expected to be accretive to adjusted fully diluted EPS in the first full year, targeting mid-single digit EPS accretion in year 3, and to beat the group WACC for the US by year 5. The transaction will significantly enhance BAT's cash flow generation profile with increased control of what will be a significant proportion of group cash flows and a more diversified FX exposure.
BAT intends to maintain its dividend policy of a minimum 65% payout ratio post transaction and expects the transaction to be accretive to dividends per share.
Closing conditions
The parties expect the transaction to close during the third quarter of 2017, subject to: obtaining affirmative votes from BAT and Reynolds shareholders; obtaining anti-trust approvals in the US and Japan; registration of BAT shares with the SEC; approval of the BAT shares for listing on the LSE and the BAT ADRs on the NYSE; and, other customary conditions. Completion of the merger is not subject to any financing condition.
BAT intends to register BAT ADRs under US securities laws. The transaction is a Class 1 transaction for BAT for the purposes of the UK Listing Rules requiring the approval of BAT shareholders. A shareholder circular, together with notice of the relevant shareholder meeting, will be distributed to BAT shareholders in due course.
If either of the BAT or Reynolds' Boards decides in line with its fiduciary duties to withhold or withdraw its recommendation to its shareholders to vote in favour of the transaction and the merger agreement is terminated, such party would be required to pay a break fee of USD 1bn to the other party. Under certain circumstances, in the event that the merger agreement is terminated and a competing transaction completes within 12 months of that termination, the party completing the competing transaction would be required to pay a break fee of USD 1bn. In the event that (a) certain anti-trust approvals are not obtained or (b) an anti-trust approval is conditioned on disposals or other conduct remedies and BAT does not accept such conditions and therefore does not complete this transaction, BAT must pay an anti-trust break fee of USD 500m to Reynolds. The anti-trust break fee would not be payable in addition to the USD 1bn break fee.
BAT intends to file the merger agreement and other relevant documents with the SEC and such documents may be retrieved free of charge at the SEC's website, http://www.sec.gov. These are expected to be available at some point later today.
Etihad and Lufthansa in talks over a merger - report (translated)
Etihad, the UAE-based airline is in talks with Lufthansa [ETR:LHA] over a merger, Italian language daily Il Messaggero reported. The unsourced report said that the two sides have been holding top secret talks over the last few weeks over the operation, which would see Etihad first take a 30-40% stake in the German carrier before moving on to a complete merger.
The item said that Etihad would take the stake via a reserved capital increase.
The report noted that the merged entity would have revenues of close to EUR 40bn based on 2015 results.
Punch Taverns bidder Emerald rumoured to be discussing teaming up with C&C - report
Punch Taverns [LON:PUB] suitor Emerald Investment Partners is rumoured to be talking to the Irish drinks group C&C [ISE: GCC, LON:CCR] about joining forces to bid for the UK-based pubs operator, The Times reported.
Punch has recommended a GBP 1.78bn (USD 2.15bn) bid from Heineken [HEIA:AS], the Dutch brewer, and Patron Capital Advisors, and Emerald is considering a counterbid, according to unsourced chatter reported in the newspaper’s City People column.
Emerald has been discussing the matter with a number of prospective partners, the item reported.
Asia equity indices trading mixed, with Australia and Japan underperforming and Hong Kong leading. In Australia, energy and mining names weighed down the broader index, while Nikkei225 was hurt by firmer Yen. In Hong Kong, property developers and financials stood out among gainers. In FX, USD/JPY fell to its lowest level since December below 113.60. USD also traded heavy against EUR and GBP, with EUR/USD and GBP/USD rising about 50pips toward 1.0650 and 1.2090 respectively. Cable is off its overnight lows below 1.20, even though traders are positioning for a more resolute "hard Brexit" outline by PM May in today's speech. Earlier Telegraph press report suggest May will announce a 12-point plan for Brexit, stating UK is leaving EU's single market and customs union and will not settle for "partial membership of the UK in EU.". Rio Tinto Q4 production report was also mixed - iron ore output met expectations while copper production was just shy of last year's outlook. Rio also affirmed its FY17 iron ore shipments, stating the company has had a strong operational performance. In China, PBoC injected the largest amount of reverse repos in a year while also setting Yuan midpoint weaker for the first time in 4 sessions.
IMF updated its economic forecasts for the next 2 years, maintaining 2017 and 2018 global GDP target at 3.4% and 3.6%, but also raising its view on Advanced, Eurozone, and US economies.
Nikkei -1.48% Hang Seng +0.52% CSI +0.21% Shanghai +0.17%
Eur$ 1.0642 CNH 6.8395 CNY 6.8882 JPY 113.55 GBP 1.2112 CHF 1.0078 RUB 59.4414 WTI$ 52.40 +0.06%
S&P -0.33% EuroStox -0.30% FTSE -0.17% CAC -0.25% SMI -0.40%
Macro :
- Praet: ECB Policy Focused on Avoiding Fall Into Deflation Trap
- Mogherini: EU Countries Can’t Negotiate Bilateral Trade Deals
- ECB Bought Air Liquide, NN Group, Novartis Last Week: Analysis
- Spain Seals Agreement on Saudi High-Speed Rail Project
- Bank of Italy, ECB Said to Disagree on Monte Paschi NPL: Il Sole
Keep an eye on :
- ANA SM : Acciona Seeks to Buy Back Up to EU108.4m of Convertible Bonds
- AC FP : Accor In Talks With Investors to Sell HotelInvest, Valued EU6.6B
- AI FP : ECB Bought Air Liquide, NN Group, Novartis Last Week: Analysis
- ALO FP : Alstom Wins Metro System Order in Vietnam
- ALO FP : Alstom 3Q Orders EU1.02b, Sales EU1.66b; Keeps 2020 Objectives
- BATS LN : BAT Agrees to Buy Rest of Reynolds for About $59.64/Share
- IAG LN : British Airways to Cancel 1% of Flights During Jan. 19-21 Strike
- BEI GY : Beiersdorf FY Sales Meet Estimates, Co. Confirms Ebit Guidance
- CO FP : Casino 2016 Sales Miss Estimates as French Retail Slows
- COL SM : Colonial Buys Paris Building for EU165m
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank May Withhold Bonuses for 90% Traders, Bankers: NYP
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse May Add Analytical Tools, AI Features, CEO Says
- ENGI FP : Engie in Talks to Sell LNG-Terminal Operator Elengy to GRTgaz
- ENI IM : Eni, MIT Extend Energy Collaboration For 4 Years
- FCA IM : Italy Says It’s Responding Appropriately on FCA Emissions Case
- GM US : GM Said to Announce $1b in New U.S. Investment: CNBC/DJ
- GIVN VX : Givaudan Buys Activ to Strengthen Natural Flavour Solutions
- HSBA LN : HSBC Sees Softer Demand for Turkey’s Auto Companies in 2017
- LISP SW : Lindt 2016 Sales Meet Estimates; Sees Operating Margin Widening
- LHA GY : Lufthansa LSG Caterer to Cut 2,000 Jobs, FAZ Says, Citing Union
- NOVN VX : ECB Bought Air Liquide, NN Group, Novartis Last Week: Analysis
- UG FP : PSA Astonished by C4 Citroen Cactus Emission Study: Le Parisien
- RIO LN : Rio 4Q Pilbara Iron Shipments on 100% Basis 87.7Mt, Est. 86.8Mt
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Settles Fraud Investigations for 671 Million Pounds
- RDSA NA : Shell to Sell Gabon Unit to Carlyle Later This Month, AFP Says
- SUBC NO : Subsea 7 Offers to Buy Remaining 50% of Seaway Heavy Lifting
- UBSG VX : UBS’s Weber Says Banks Need to Have Options to Deal With Brexit
- ZAL GY : Zalando 4Q Sales Miss Estimates, Adj. Ebit EU81m-EU104m
>>> Up
*Ashtead Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT 1600p
*Banco Popular Raised to Buy at Citi, PT EU1.30
*Cobham Raised to Hold at Berenberg, PT 132p
*Continental Resources Raised to Buy at Jefferies
*Eni Raised to Buy at Jefferies, PT EU18
*Hargreaves Lansdown Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan, PT 1350p
*Luxottica Raised to Neutral at Goldman
*Luxottica Raised to Buy at Hammer Partners SA, PT EU59.60
*Newfield Raised to Buy at Jefferies
*Siemens Raised to Add at AlphaValue
*Standard Chartered Raised to Buy at BofAML, PT 900p
*Tod's Raised to Neutral at Macquarie
>>> Down
*ALK-Abello Cut to Sell at Kempen & Co, PT DKK900
*Bone Therapeutics Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT EU9
*Bureau Veritas Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse, PT EU17
*Devon Cut to Hold at Jefferies
*Evotec Cut to Neutral at Kempen & Co, PT EU7.50
*FLSmidth Cut to Sell at ABG Sundal, PT DKK280
*Getinge Cut to Neutral at Swedbank, PT SEK175
*Heineken Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse
*(Implenia Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux, PT CHF82
*Intertek Cut to Underperform at Credit Suisse, PT 3200p
*Kion Cut to Hold at Bankhaus Lampe, PT EU54
*Luxottica Cut to Reduce at AlphaValue
*Refresco Group Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
*Remy Cointreau Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse
*SGS Cut to Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT CHF2050
*Vinci Cut to Sector Perform at RBC, PT EU73
*Wacker Chemie Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT EU118
>>> PT Change
>>> Initiation
*ASML Reinstated Neutral at Credit Suisse, PT EU113
*Indra Rated New Buy at Oddo & Cie, PT EU12.80
*Senvion Rated New Hold at M.M. Warburg, PT EU12
*TechnipFMC Rated New Underperform at Bernstein, PT $27
*Tieto Rated New Reduce at Oddo & Cie, PT EU23
>>> Call
>> Sector
*EUROPEAN COMMERCIAL SERVICES CUT TO NEUTRAL AT UBS
*UROPEAN CHEMICALS RAISED TO OVERWEIGHT VS NEUTRAL AT UBS
>> Stock
*SUEDZUCKER EXITS BANKHAUS LAMPE LARGE CAP ALPHA LIST
*GERRESHEIMER ENTERS BANKHAUS LAMPE LARGE CAP ALPHA LIST
It’s turned out to be another strange day in Chinese equities following Monday afternoon’s sudden nosedive, with a sharp downturn for Shenzhen-listed stocks on Tuesday afternoon taking a U-turn so hard it has managed to push the bourse’s benchmark index well into positive territory.
The Shenzhen Composite Index was up 1.2 per cent at 1872.69 shortly before the close on Tuesday, clawing its way back from an afternoon dive that saw it drop as much as 1.5 per cent.
The Shanghai Composite Index registered a similar post-lunch resurrection, rising from an intraday drop of 1 per cent to be up 0.1 per cent in the final minutes of trade at 3325.21.
Both bourses had experienced a similarly sudden fall (sans rebound) on Monday afternoon after state media reported China’s securities regulator had approved 10 initial public offerings for the mainland’s “A-share” market.
Mainland-listed shares often spike markedly in the first day of trade, hogging the available cash on hand to investors and potentially prompting those without any to sell the stocks they already own in order to take part in the new listings.
However no such announcement preceded Tuesday’s rout-turned-rally, which saw broad gains across all segments of the Shenzhen composite ahead of the close and in Shanghai left only financial, real estate, telecoms and utilities with losses in the final minutes of trade.