FT : Old Mutual receives new approaches for US asset management stake

Old Mutual receives new approaches for US asset management stake
Insurer has initial talks with Chinese conglomerate and two buyout groups

Old Mutual has received new approaches for its $900m controlling stake in its US asset management business, from potential buyers including China’s HNA Group, TPG and Advent.

The UK-listed insurer held preliminary talks with the Chinese conglomerate as well as the two US private equity groups but has failed thus far to forge a path to a definitive agreement, according to four people briefed about the discussions.

Instead of engaging the potential bidders, the insurer sold down part of its 66 per cent stake in Old Mutual Asset Management (OMAM) to 51 per cent on the open market in December, a move that has frustrated the buyers and could jeopardise a future deal.

HNA, the highly acquisitive Chinese group, is still interested in exploring a deal with Old Mutual only as long as it can buy a majority stake in OMAM, two sources said.

Advent, the Boston and London-based private equity group, is still interested in a transaction, while TPG, the US private equity group, has since given up on a deal, people close to the companies said.

HNA, which generates $46bn in annual revenues, signalled its ambition to build an asset management arm last month by acquiring a stake in SkyBridge Capital, the $12bn fund of hedge funds business founded by Anthony Scaramucci, an early backer of US president Donald Trump.

According to those briefed about the talks, the management of OMAM has thrown up roadblocks to a deal.

The Boston-based management, led by chief executive Peter Bain, is pursuing what it calls an “acquisition growth strategy” and plans to add to the company’s portfolio of boutique investment management businesses. It has landed only one such acquisition in six years and executives have said that speculation over Old Mutual’s intentions was putting off potential targets.

In a regulatory filing on December 12, OMAM said that any block sale of Old Mutual’s assets could also negatively impact on its relationship with its existing affiliated boutiques and affect the company’s financing.

“Any potential disagreements between our management and a new majority owner over matters such as the economic arrangements or management policies with our affiliates, growth strategies and compensation philosophy of our affiliates could adversely affect our relationships,” said the filing. “Under certain circumstances, [it] could result in the acceleration of our outstanding indebtedness and/or the redemption of our outstanding notes.”

The firms that want to take control of OMAM fear that they are running out of time, following a string of share sales by the parent company since it floated a minority stake in New York in 2014. When Old Mutual sold down its stake to 51 per cent in December it promised not to sell any more shares for 60 days.

In spring 2016, Old Mutual held talks with Affiliated Managers Group over a sale of its whole stake, but they did not result in a deal. It is unclear whether AMG is still interested in the asset. Old Mutual, OMAM, HNA, TPG, Advent and AMG declined to comment.

London-listed Old Mutual is in the early stages of a four way break-up, under chief executive Bruce Hemphill. Aside from OMAM, the company owns a wealth management company in the UK, an insurance business in South Africa and a stake in Johannesburg-based Nedbank.

On OMAM’s most recent earnings call this month, Mr Bain said that the investment management boutiques that he hoped to acquire were asking for clarity on the company’s ownership before being prepared to “engage definitively”.

He said: “That’s fair and we’re very comfortable with it and the parent [Old Mutual] is very aware of that fact and they are managing accordingly.”

Stephen Belgrad, chief financial officer, added that Old Mutual’s share sale in December was “a nice step forward” in terms of answering some of those questions.

On Friday, OMAM shares closed at $14.85, up nearly 40 per cent from a year ago, giving it a market valuation of about $1.8bn.

WSJ : Marathon Pharmaceuticals to Charge $89,000 for Muscular Dystrophy Drug Aft



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 02/12/17 15:43:35
Subject: WSJ : Marathon Pharmaceuticals to Charge $89,000 for Muscular Dystrophy Drug Aft
Marathon Pharmaceuticals to Charge $89,000 for Muscular Dystrophy Drug After 70-Fold Increase
FDA-approved deflazacort treats rare type of disease affecting boys

A drug to treat muscular dystrophy will hit the U.S. market with a price tag of $89,000 a year despite being available for decades in Europe at a fraction of that cost.
Marathon Pharmaceuticals LLC’s pricing of the drug, which has been available in Europe, is the latest example of a business model that has drawn ire from doctors, patients and legislators in recent years: cheaply acquiring older drugs and then drastically raising their prices.
The practice has prompted congressional investigations and hearings into companies including Valeant Pharmaceuticals International Inc. and Turing Pharmaceuticals LLC, the firm formerly run by onetime hedge-fund manager Martin Shkreli.

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration on Thursday approved Marathon’s drug, a corticosteroid called deflazacort, to treat a rare type of muscular dystrophy that affects some 12,000 boys in the U.S., most of whom die in their 20s and 30s. The drug isn’t a cure, but it has been shown to improve muscle strength, the FDA said in a statement announcing the approval.
The drug wasn’t sold in the U.S. mainly because no company thought it would be profitable enough to warrant the effort of seeking FDA approval. But U.S. patients have been importing it from foreign countries since the 1990s after clinical trials showed its potential to reduce inflammation with fewer side effects than another steroid.

The price set by Marathon, based in Northbrook, Ill., is 50 to 70 times what most U.S. patients now pay to buy deflazacort from an online pharmacy in the United Kingdom, according to advocates for patients with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.
Christine McSherry of Pembroke, Mass., pays about $1,600 annually to buy deflazacort from the U.K. pharmacy for her son, Jett, she said.
But the pharmacy, operated by Masters Specialty Pharma, recently told customers it would stop shipping the drug to the U.S. after Marathon, based in Northbrook, Ill., received FDA approval for its version.
A Masters spokeswoman said in an email that the company is ending shipments to the U.S. “in compliance with U.S. FDA regulations,” which prohibit drug importation except under certain circumstances, such as when a drug isn’t available in the U.S.

Ms. McSherry, who runs Jett Foundation, a nonprofit aimed at Duchenne, said she is “disappointed that Marathon increased my cost for the drug by more than $87,000 a year.” She has health insurance but said she isn’t sure if her coverage will pay for the new drug.
Marathon Chief Financial Officer Babar Ghias defended the price in an interview. He said the company will likely receive much less in net revenue than the $89,000-per-patient list price, after providing discounts to government insurers and financial assistance to patients who can’t afford the drug. Also, more patients will have access to the drug because their health insurers will begin covering its cost now that it has FDA approval, he said.
The company will start selling the medicine in March under the brand name Emflaza, Mr. Ghias said.
Mr. Ghias, a former mergers-and-acquisitions banker, said the company showed restraint in how it priced the drug. Other new drugs for so-called orphan diseases, which by definition affect fewer than 200,000 people nationally, have carried price tags of $300,000 annually and higher, he said.
“It’s modestly priced for an orphan drug,” Mr. Ghias said.
Because Emflaza was approved as an orphan drug, Marathon received a valuable FDA “voucher” that allows it to demand a faster approval decision from the agency on its next drug. Marathon can use the voucher itself, or sell it to another company. The vouchers were created by Congress to promote the development of rare-disease drugs and have fetched as much as $350 million in previous transactions.
Pharmaceutical companies are under mounting scrutiny for their pricing of drugs, many of which now approach or exceed $100,000 annually per patient. Many companies say the prices are necessary to justify their large investments.
Marathon gained clearance to sell deflazacort in the U.S. after licensing the rights to clinical trial data from the 1990s that hadn’t been fully analyzed. The FDA required the company to complete an analysis of the old trial data and conduct some new studies to gain approval, Mr. Ghias said.
Mr. Ghias declined to say how much Marathon spent to acquire the trial data or conduct original research. He said Marathon doesn’t expect to recoup its investment in the drug for several years. Marathon doesn’t have commitments yet from insurers that they will pay for the drug, Mr. Ghias said.
Privately held Marathon is best known for a 2015 deal in which it sold two older heart drugs to Valeant, Nitropress and Isuprel, for $350 million. Valeant raised the drugs’ prices dramatically, moves that were later scrutinized by a congressional committee. The investigation prompted Valeant to say it had been too aggressive in raising prices and that it would moderate its practices. Mr. Shkreli has said raising prices on old drugs funded research and development of new medicines.
Marathon Chief Executive Jeffrey S. Aronin was an early pioneer of a pharmaceuticals-industry model in which companies cheaply acquire older drugs that have lost patent protection and that large pharmaceutical firms are no longer interested in promoting.
The Federal Trade Commission in 2008 alleged that another of Mr. Aronin’s companies, Ovation Pharmaceuticals Inc., had illegally acquired a drug to treat congenital heart defects in babies so that it could raise the price of its competing treatment nearly 14-fold. But the FTC’s complaint was dismissed in 2010 by a court that found the drugs operated in separate product markets.
Marathon estimates it will keep only about 61% of the $89,000 it charges for deflazacort, or $54,000, Mr. Ghias said. The difference will go to rebates the company is required to pay Medicaid, copay coupons and free medicine it gives to patients, as well as a small reduction in revenue from patients who take fewer pills than prescribed and don’t refill their prescriptions on time, he said.
Pat Furlong, a patient advocate, said she hopes deflazacort will be widely covered by insurers now that it is FDA-approved. But she worries that the drug’s price could continue to keep it out of reach for patients with high-deductible insurance or whose insurance won’t pay for the drug at all, she said.
“I worry about what people have to pay out of pocket,” said Ms. Furlong, president of the nonprofit Parent Project Muscular Dystrophy
The FDA approved the first drug aimed at treating Duchenne late last year. The approval was controversial because the drug, called Exondys 51, hasn’t completed late-stage clinical trials needed to prove its effectiveness. The drug’s manufacturer, Sarepta Therapeutics Inc., charges roughly $300,000 annually per patient for the medicine.
Biogen Inc. said last year that it would charge $750,000 per patient for the first year of treatment with its new treatment for spinal muscular atrophy, a fatal genetic disease. The price would drop to $375,000 annually in subsequent years.

>>> Renault CEO says closer ties with Nissan possible if French government sells

from this week end if you missed it

From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 02/11/17 15:51:25
Subject: >>> Renault CEO says closer ties with Nissan possible if French government sells
Renault CEO says closer ties with Nissan possible if French government sells stake - FT

Renault [EPA:RNO], a French car manufacturer, and Nissan [TYO:7201], its Japanese counterpart, are ready to consider a closer relationship if the French government sells its shareholding in Renault, the Financial Times reported. The newspaper quoted Carlos Ghosn, CEO of both companies, who said on Friday, 10 February that “everything” is on the table should the French government decide to exit its investment.

Renault and Nissan entered into an alliance after the French car maker rescued Nissan in 1999. As a result of the alliance, both companies have shareholdings in each other, although Renault effectively has control over its Japanese counterpart, the report explained.

The alliance was strained in 2015 after the French government added to its stake in Renault, the article said, noting that the government now holds a 19.74% stake.

Ghosn said Japan will never agree to be involved in a group in which the French government will hold a stake in “Japanese assets,” the item continued.

The French government would probably not sell its entire shareholding in Renault due to the strategic position of the automotive industry, the item said.

Renault reported FY16 net income of EUR 3.5bn (USD 3.72bn) on Friday, a 20% increase on the previous year. Revenues increased by 13% to EUR 51.2bn, the item noted.

Renault’s market capitalisation stood at EUR 24.78bn at the close of trading in Paris on Friday.

FT : Full Article --> http://on.ft.com/2lAbr0C

Renault and Nissan open to forging closer ties
Chief says deeper relationship possible if Paris sells stake in French carmaker

Renault and Nissan are open to forging closer ties if Paris sells its stake in the French carmaker, the head of both companies said on Friday.

Carlos Ghosn, chief executive of Renault and Nissan, said that “the day the French state decides to get out, everything is open”.

He was speaking as Renault outlined an ambitious six-year plan to boost its revenue and earnings, and reported better than expected results for last year. In afternoon trading on Friday, Renault’s shares were up 1.4 per cent at €83.95.

Renault rescued Nissan from near collapse in 1999, and the two companies formed an alliance that involves each having an equity stake in the other.

But Renault wields de facto control over Nissan, and this led to tensions between the two companies in 2015 after Paris increased its stake in the French carmaker.

Mr Ghosn said the two companies could deepen their ties, but not until the French government sells its 19.74 per cent stake in Renault.

“The Japanese will never accept to be part of an entity where the French state will be a shareholder of Japanese assets,” he added.


Mr Ghosn described the 2015 tensions as a “soap opera”, and said his relationship with the French government was “complicated but constructive”.

His comments are consistent with private statements from several executives within the alliance, who have previously told the Financial Times that a full merger between Renault and Nissan cannot happen while the French government is a shareholder in the French carmaker.

Paris is unlikely to sell all its stake in Renault because the car industry is regarded as strategic.

The French government also holds a stake in PSA Peugeot Citroën, the country’s other major carmaker.

Renault reported net income of €3.5bn for last year, up 20 per cent compared with 2015.

The group operating margin rose from 5.2 per cent in 2015 to 6.4 per cent last year.

Renault sold a record 3.2m vehicles in 2016, and its revenue rose 13 per cent to €51.2bn last year.

Outlining its financial plan from 2017 to 2022, Renault said it aimed to boost annual revenue to €70bn at constant currencies by 2022, and raise its operating margin to 7 per cent.

Among other things, Renault is counting on sales growth in emerging markets over the next six years, and further efficiency savings through its alliance with Nissan.

Stuart Pearson, analyst at Exane BNP Paribas, said the results required to meet Renault’s new targets were “well ahead of consensus estimates”.

Renault booked €702m of foreign exchange losses last year, partly because of the fall in the value of sterling after the UK’s vote to leave the EU in June.

Mr Ghosn said Renault faced some “Brexit uncertainty”, adding that the “potential depreciation of the British pound might accelerate the expected drop of the British market”.

Renault’s Avtovaz unit, which manufactures Lada cars as well as making Renault vehicles in Russia, continued to be a drag on the French carmaker’s results last year.

However, Avtovaz’s losses narrowed from €620m in 2015 to €89m in 2016, and Renault wants the unit to be profitable by 2018.

Mr Ghosn said Russia had the potential to be a “cash machine” for Renault once the economy recovers.

Renault invested in the Russian market while other carmakers were pulling out, he added. 

>>> What to look at today - 12th of February 2017

Asian equity markets remaining bid despite the geopolitical concerns and uncertainty regarding US policy. Sentiment continued to reverberate from the reflation "Trump-trade" persisting in the US session on Friday and pushing indices to record highs. Lift in commodity prices such as new 2-year high in Dalian iron ore has buoyed miners in Australia, while a 2-week high in USD/JPY above ¥114 is supporting Japan's export-rich market. Pro-growth business and tax agenda of US Pres Trump is once again overshadowing other factors. Trump met with Japan PM Abe over the weekend, pledging commitment in joint defense and investment in Japan business partnership, hinting he will announce big news on taxes and other industry-supportive changes in the near term. Japan Q4 preliminary GDP was a decimal shy of consensus but roughly on par with the growth rates reported in Q3. Attention this week turns to Fed Chair Yellen semiannual testimony in Congress, and investors will look for more clues on how probable are the expectations of a March rate hike. Recall the last FOMC decision has dented those probabilities, producing a bounce in US treasuries. Part of the uncertainty lies with the fiscal side of the US economy, and whether President Trump's bold agenda will nudge the purse strings of Republican controlled Congress. Over the weekend, Fed vice chair Fischer echoed as much, stating that there is significant uncertainty about what Congress and the Administration will do with fiscal policy.

Nikkei +0.41% Hang Seng +0.47% CSI +0.63% Shanghai +0.59%

Eur$ 1.0632 CNH 6.8791 CNY 6.8842 JPY 113.67 GBP 1.2517 CHF 1.0034 RUB 58.0202 WTI$ 53.70 -0.28%

S&P +0.05% EuroStoxx +0.15% FTSE +0.16% Dax +0.12% SMI +0.11%

Macro :
- Gulf Stocks Rise With Oil; Kuwait Bucks Agility Slide
- Swiss Reject Tax Reform, Threatening Country’s Competitive Edge
- ECB Rate Pledge Could Be German Solace as Bond Buying Continues
- Swiss Corporate-Tax Vote Threatens Nation’s Competitive Edge
- Fed’s Tarullo Stepping Down as Top Regulator of Wall Street
- Russia’s Novak Sees Chance to Extend Oil Cuts With OPEC: RIA
- Juncker Tells Deutschlandfunk He Won’t Run for Second Term


Keep an eye on :
- III LN : Agent Provocateur potential bidders include Lion Capital, Etam, Endless
- ABE SM : M6 Toll Road owners considering refinancing after bids fall short of GBP 1.9bn asking price; Abertis bid rejected - FT - http://on.ft.com/2khaNEh
- AF FP : Janaillac Wants KLM Supervisory Board Membership: Telegraaf
- AGMBEUR XD : Aeroporto Bologna Sees Rev., Profit Up in 2016 Y/y: Sole
- AAPL US : Apple CEO: AR Is ‘Big Idea Like Smartphone’, Independent Says
- MT NA : ArcelorMittal calls for carbon levy on imports to EU companies, Lakshmi Mittal concerned new rules will discriminate against European producers FT - http://on.ft.com/2lDJrJn
- NDA GY : Aurubis 1Q EBT Falls 50% on Hamburg Shutdown, Copper Price
- BCP PL : Banco Comercial Won’t Need a New Capital Increase, Expresso Says
- BARC LN : Barclays Said to Consider Freezing CEO Staley’s Pay: Sky News
- BAMI IM : Castagna Rules Out Cap. Increase for Banco BPM: Ansa
- BMPS IM : MPS Aims to Get EU Approval for Plan by Early March: Messaggero
- BARN SW : Ivorian Cocoa Shippers Said Unable to Honor 80% of Contracts
- BAS GY : BASF: Some Operations Interrupted Due to Tech Defect on Feb. 11
- BMPS IM : Monte Paschi May Opt for Block Sale of NPLs, Sole 24 Ore Says
- CRG IM : Carige NPLs Sale May Not Take Place Before April: Ansa, Carige Aims to Sell EU2b of NPLs by Yr End, Sole Reports
- CAT US : Caterpillar Jumps as Evercore Sees 2018 EPS Growth Above 65%
- CX US : Cemex Unit to Sell Ohio Assets to Eagle Materials for $400m
- CSGN VX : Finma Said to Mull Tough Rules for Credit Suisse Unit, FUW Says
- DB1 GY : Deutsche Boerse Says It Has Made Clear It Is Cooperating Fully
- DWNI GY : Deutsche Wohnen Looks Very Good for Meeting Guidance: CFO in BZ
- TAM FP : Agent Provocateur potential bidders include Lion Capital, Etam, Endless - Sky News
- FINGB SS : Fingerprint Cards Ex-CEO Lantto Sold 836,500 Shares in Jan.: DI
- F US : Ford is putting $1 billion into an AI startup, Detroit's biggest investment yet in self-driving car tech _ Recode
- G IM : Generali targets deeper cuts in attempt to stay independent - FT - http://on.ft.com/2kWlX3a {NSN OL9LQI6TTDSI <GO>}
- HEIA NA : Kirin to Sell Brasil Kirin to Heineken in $680 Million Deal
- ICAD FP : Icade 2016 Net Income EU58m Vs. Loss of EU207.6m
- GFK GY : KKR Secures 18.5% Acceptance for GfK Bid, Extends Tender Period
- KORS US : Michael Kors Falls; Says Technical Issue to Delay Form 10-Q
- LEON SW : Leonteq CEO Says Company May Make A Loss in 2017: FuW
- LISP SW : Ivorian Cocoa Shippers Said Unable to Honor 80% of Contracts
- OR FP : Investors Weigh Bids for L’Oreal’s Body Shop, Sunday Times Says
- MSY LN : Consider stock mkt listing, bought by Vista in 03/2012 for GBP1.32bil
- NESN VX : Ivorian Cocoa Shippers Said Unable to Honor 80% of Contracts
- NETS DC : Nets Considers Acquisitions in Sweden, Dagens Industri Reports
- OML LN : Old Mutual Said to Get Approaches for U.S. Asset Mgmt Stake: FT
- ORA FP : The framework of the discussions is clear between Orange and Canal + - Les Echos - http://bit.ly/2kkxgjv
- PRS SM : Prosegur Cash Said to Seek EU4b Value in IPO: Expansion
- DPB GY : Wanda Said to Weigh Buying Postbank, Other European Banks: FT
- RBS LN : RBS May Cut Up to 15,000 Jobs, Close Branches, S. Times Says
- REA BB : Recticel and RealDolmen rumoured to be up for sale and/or delisting - http://bit.ly/2kDnpcd
- REC BB : Recticel and RealDolmen rumoured to be up for sale and/or delisting - http://bit.ly/2kDnpcd
- RB/ LN : Mead Johnson/Reckitt Has High Likelihood of Completion, UFP Says
- RB/ LN : Reckitt Investors Urge Tougher Bonus Scheme, S. Times Reports
- RNO FP : CEO says closer ties with Nissan possible if French government sells stake FT - http://on.ft.com/2lAbr0C
- QSR CN : Restaurant Brands Top Holder Pershing Square Reports 18.1% Stake
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Plans to Release Crewless Ships by 2020, Sky Says
- SLE LN : San Leon Energy receives bid approach from second Chinese company - Irish Times
- SAN FP : Sanofi hires Messier Maris to conduct CEPiA sale - MergerMarket
- SAN FP : Sanofi Said to Near Agreement to Sell Some OTC Drugs to Ipsen
- SKY LN : U.S. Hedge Funds Buy Stakes in Sky on Winning Fox Bet: Telegraph
- SAZ GY : Stada Arzneimittel Said to Receive EU3.6b Cinven Bid: FT - http://on.ft.com/2lF6nZB
- STL NO : Statoil CEO: Never Had Portfolio w/ Higher Quality Than Now: DN
- TEMN SW : Temenos Expects to Expand N. America Business: Mossman in FuW
- TWX US : Warner Bros. Says Prince Catalog on Streaming Services Today
- VIV FP : SoundCloud COO Strigel, Fin Director Harder Leave Co.: FT
- VOW3 GY : German Lawmaker Criticizes Piech Refusal to Testify: Funke
- VOW3 GY : Lower Saxony PM Doesn’t Rule Out More Setbacks in VW Case: RND
- WMH LN : Biggest William Hill Investor Urges Sale, Sunday Times Reports

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 12th of February 20

>>> Up
*AB Foods Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT 2800p
*Ashmore Raised to Neutral at Citi, PT 370p
*Assa Abloy Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT SEK190
*Berendsen Raised to Neutral at Citi
*EnQuest Raised to Buy at UBS, PT 65p
*Eurocommercial Properties Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux
*Glencore Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, PT 280p
*Kering Raised to Strong Buy at Raymond James, PT EU270
*Nucor Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley, PT $78
*Ryanair Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank, PT EU17.60
*SocGen Raised to Neutral at UBS, PT EU45
*Tarkett Raised to Add at AlphaValue
*Wartsila Raised to Hold at Deutsche Bank, PT EU45

>>> Down
*AK Steel Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley, PT $11
*Capio Cut to Hold at Nordea Securities, PT SEK48
*Wacker Chemie Cut to Hold at Berenberg, PT EU112

>>> PT Change


>>> Initiation
*Ashmore Resumed Hold at Liberum, PT 338p

>>> Call

>>> Asian Update

Asia Mid-Session Market Update: Trump-Abe summit marred by North Korea missile launch; Japan GDP maintains growth trajectory

***Friday US markets on close: Dow +0.5%, S&P500 +0.4%, Nasdaq +0.3%***
- Best Sector in S&P500: Materials
- Worst Sector in S&P500: Consumer Staples
- Biggest gainers: ATVI +18.9%; CBG +7.7%; NWSA +7.3%
- Biggest losers: CERN -4.4%; TDC -3.2%; WU -3.1%
- At the close: VIX 10.9 (-pts); Treasuries: 2-yr 1.21% (flat), 10-yr 2.41% (+1bps), 30-yr 3.01% (flat)

***Weekend US/EU Corporate Headlines***
- SAZ.DE: Private equity group Cinven makes €3.6B takeover offer or ~€58/shr (17% premium to Fri close) - press

***Politics***
- (US) White House advisor Stephen Miller: Administration is considering different options after immigration ban decision in the appeals court, including drafting a new executive order - press
- (ES) Spain PM Rajoy has been reelected as the leader of the ruling conservative Popular Party for the 4th term - press
- (MX) Approval rating for Mexico's left-wing National Regeneration Movement party leader López Obrador has risen 4pts since the US election give his vocal opposition to President Trump - press

***Key economic data:***
- (JP) JAPAN PRELIM Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.2% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.0% V 1.1%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN CARD SPENDING M/M: +2.7% V 0.7%E; TOTAL M/M: 2.5% V 0.0% PRIOR

***Asia Session Notable Observations, Speakers and Press***
- Asian equity markets remaining bid despite the geopolitical concerns and uncertainty regarding US policy. Sentiment continued to reverberate from the reflation "Trump-trade" persisting in the US session on Friday and pushing indices to record highs. Lift in commodity prices such as new 2-year high in Dalian iron ore has buoyed miners in Australia, while a 2-week high in USD/JPY above ¥114 is supporting Japan's export-rich market.
- Pro-growth business and tax agenda of US Pres Trump is once again overshadowing other factors. Trump met with Japan PM Abe over the weekend, pledging commitment in joint defense and investment in Japan business partnership, hinting he will announce big news on taxes and other industry-supportive changes in the near term.
- Another missile launch by North Korea on Sunday has not deterred buyers. This is the first launch during the Trump administration, and thus far he has only stated that US stands to defend Japan 100%. North Korea's state press KCNA announced the test of ballistic missile was successful, while South Korea defense officials said the missile flew 500km before falling into the sea though also acknowledging this was an improved version of the last test. KCNA also stated that the missile type launched on Sunday would be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
- Japan Q4 preliminary GDP was a decimal shy of consensus but roughly on par with the growth rates reported in Q3. Key components showed flat Private Consumption v 0.3% prior, though Japan Econ Min attributed the slowdown to rising food prices. In contrast, CAPEX was a bright spot, growing 0.9% after a contraction of -0.4% in Q3.
- Attention this week turns to Fed Chair Yellen semiannual testimony in Congress, and investors will look for more clues on how probable are the expectations of a March rate hike. Recall the last FOMC decision has dented those probabilities, producing a bounce in US treasuries. Part of the uncertainty lies with the fiscal side of the US economy, and whether President Trump's bold agenda will nudge the purse strings of Republican controlled Congress. Over the weekend, Fed vice chair Fischer echoed as much, stating that there is significant uncertainty about what Congress and the Administration will do with fiscal policy.

China
- (CN) Mitsubishi UFJ analyst: PBoC is "trying to juggle too many balls" given all of its various policy tools - press
- (CN) China FX regulator SAFE chief Pan: will continue supporting opening of financial markets - Chinese press
- (CN) China state researcher: PBoC should step up risk controls in 2017 - Chinese press
- (CN) Schedules for approval of 3rd batch of Free Trade Zones (FTZ) have been submitted to central govt; Expected to be launched soon - Chinese press

Japan
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Ishihara: No change to view of Japan in moderate recovery
- (JP) Japan Chief Cabinet Sec Suga: Important that US and Japan firmly ally on North Korea; urge China to take constructive measures on North Korea

Australia/New Zealand:
- (AU) RBA Gov Lowe: Hard to say that exchange rate is too high - AFR (update)
- (NZ) ANZ: New Zealand housing shortage estimated at about 60K units - NZ press

***Asian Equity Indices/Futures (23:00ET)***
- Nikkei +0.6%, Hang Seng +0.5%, Shanghai Composite +0.6%, ASX200 +0.7%, Kospi flat
- Equity Futures: S&P500 +0.2%; Nasdaq +0.2%, Dax +0.3%, FTSE100 +0.1%

***FX ranges/Commodities/Fixed Income (23:00ET)***
- EUR 1.0610-1.0635; JPY 113.45-114.15; AUD 0.7655-0.7680; NZD 0.7180-0.7210; GBP 1.2465-1.2495
- Apr Gold -0.4% at 1,231/oz; Mar Crude Oil -0.1% at $53.80/brl; Mar Copper +0.7% at $2.80/lb
- GLD SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings rise 4.1 tonnes to 836.7 tonnes; 7th consecutive increase; Highest since Dec 16th
- (CN) PBOC to inject combined CNY100B v CNY50B on Feb 2nd in 7-day, 14-day and 28-day reverse repos (1st injection after 6 consecutive halts)
- (CN) PBOC SETS YUAN MID POINT AT 6.8898 V 6.8819 PRIOR; 2nd straight weaker setting; weakest CNY setting since Jan 13th
- (AU) Australia MoF sells A$300M in 4.5% 2033 bonds; avg yield 3.164%; bid-to-cover 3.42x

***Asia equities / Notables / movers***
Australia
- AMC.AU Amcor +4.5% (H1 result)
- AZJ.AU Aurizon +3.6% (H1 result)
- JBH.AU JB Hi-Fi +2.8% (H1 result)
- OZL.AU Oz Minerals +2.8% (raised at Morgan Stanley)
- BHP.AU +2.3%, RIO.AU +3.4% (iron ore price at 2-year high)
- NCM.AU Newcrest Mining +1.0% (H1 result)
- ANN.AU Ansell Ltd -2.3% (H1 result)

Hong Kong
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FT : Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total for 60 years

Oil and gas discoveries dry up to lowest total for 60 years
Companies are putting a brake on exploration and large fields are harder to find

Discoveries of new oil and gasfields have dropped to a fresh 60-year low, as companies put a brake on exploration and large fields have become harder to find. 

There were only 174 oil and gas discoveries worldwide last year, compared to an average of 400-500 per year up until 2013, according to IHS Markit, the research group. 

The slowdown in exploration success shows that the world is likely to become increasingly reliant on “unconventional” resources such as US shale oil and gas to meet demand for energy in future decades. 

The typical time from discovery to production is five to seven years, so a shortfall in oil and gas discoveries now implies tighter supplies in the next decade. 

However, there are signs of a tentative upturn in conventional exploration this year, with some companies including Statoil of Norway planning to step up drilling activity. 

Discoveries hit a six-decade low in 2015, and then dropped again last year to about 8.2bn barrels equivalent of oil and gas.


Spending on exploration fell from $100bn in 2014 to $40bn last year, according to Wood Mackenzie, another research company.

Chevron of the US cut its exploration budget from $3bn in 2015 to $1bn per year in 2016-17, and ConocoPhillips is pulling out of deep water exploration altogether. 

The discoveries of new fields compare to 190bn barrels equivalent of oil and gas that have been added to the estimated resource base of North America over the past ten years, thanks to advances in technology that have made production possible from shale and other similarly challenging “tight” rocks. 

A shale well onshore can cost $4m-$10m and be brought into production in weeks, as opposed to five or more years for deepwater discoveries. Bob Fryklund of IHS Markit said: “We’re solving the problem through tight rocks.” 

However, Wood Mackenzie expects a modest upturn in exploration activity this year, forecasting that more than 500 wells will be drilled globally in 2017, compared with 430 in 2016. 

Wells planned by ExxonMobil in Guyana, Eni in Italy, Statoil in the Barents Sea, and in Mauritania by Kosmos Energy and its new partner BP were among those with high potential for making a discovery, it added. 


The slowdown reflects both the cyclical cuts in exploration made by companies struggling stay afloat after the drop in oil and gas prices since 2014, and the structural shift in the industry towards onshore shale and similar reserves, especially in North America. 

Most frontier exploration is now offshore, where a single well can cost $150m, and the success rate for “wildcat” wells has been about one in five. 


Andrew Latham, head of global exploration research at Wood Mackenzie, said that lower daily rates for drilling rigs and other savings were allowing companies to achieve more for less money. 

“If you look at what they are spending, it looks very cautious. But if you look at the bang they are getting for their bucks, it is much more optimistic,” he said. 

He warned that, with exploration opportunities more plentiful than the available capital, there would be fierce competition for investment. “Countries that are overly harsh on their fiscal framework will not attract investment, because companies have choices.” 

The world’s two largest discoveries of the year were both in the US: Caelus Energy’s discovery at Smith Bay in shallow water off the north coast of Alaska, which could hold up to 4bn barrels of recoverable oil, and ConocoPhillips’ Willow discovery, which is also in Alaska but onshore, and is estimated to hold 300m barrels. 

Other large finds last year included discoveries of large offshore gasfields by Kosmos Energy in Senegal and Cobalt International Energy in Angola. 

In another sign of the challenges facing exploration today, most of the frontier discoveries in recent years have tended to open up smaller regions, rather than large new areas like the offshore fields of Brazil. 

The most recent giant basin to be opened up was the Zohr gasfield found in Egypt by Eni in 2015.

FT : ArcelorMittal calls for carbon levy on imports to EU companies

ArcelorMittal calls for carbon levy on imports to EU companies
Lakshmi Mittal concerned new rules will discriminate against European producers

The head of steel group ArcelorMittal has urged Brussels to look at increasing the cost of goods imported to Europe from countries without a carbon price to help protect EU companies from the bloc’s latest efforts to curb global warming.

Lakshmi Mittal, chairman and chief executive of the world’s largest steelmaker by output, says the contentious measure is needed because of moves to lift flagging carbon prices in the EU’s emissions trading system, a cornerstone of Europe’s policies to combat climate change.

Prices have languished well below €10 a tonne of CO2 for much of the past four years, too low to fulfil the scheme’s aim of spurring low carbon investments. Reforms being considered by the European Parliament this week are aimed at lifting prices after 2020 by making carbon allowances more scarce, a step big energy users such as steel companies are watching closely.

Under the 12-year-old emissions trading scheme, users have to hand in an allowance for every tonne of carbon they emit — currently worth less than €6 a tonne of CO2. ArcelorMittal produces up to two tonnes of CO2 for every tonne of steel it makes, a spokeswoman said.

Mr Mittal said the measures to raise carbon prices could translate into a “carbon tax” of about €30 a tonne for the European steel industry — an amount that international producers selling into the EU would not be obliged to pay.

Writing in the Financial Times, he said this amounted to a large competitive advantage for foreign producers that could jeopardise “the long-term viability of much of Europe’s steel industry” and boost steel imports from countries with weaker environmental standards than Europe.

“We believe, therefore, that Europe should consider the introduction of border carbon adjustments to protect European competitiveness,” he said.

The European Commission said on Sunday it saw no need for Mr Mittal’s border adjustment measures because they “send the wrong signal to the international community and are challenging to implement”.

A commission spokeswoman said the best way to address his concerns was to supply enough free carbon allowances to exposed industries and work on “comprehensive global climate action”.

Carbon border adjustments can take various forms, including taxes on imports. They were backed by a group of prominent Republican elder statesmen in the US last week, including former treasury secretaries James Baker and George Shultz.

Cameron Hepburn, professor of environmental economics at the University of Oxford and an adviser to the US group, said the economic rationale of such measures was “unassailable” because they level the playing field for companies affected by climate change policies and spur more carbon pricing abroad.

However, critics argue carbon border taxes would spark trade disputes, because they could be deemed a ploy to protect local industries, and say it is hard to measure the precise carbon content of imports or compare different national carbon pricing systems.