>>> Long Pond (John Khoury) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing:

Long Pond (John Khoury) discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: New QCP RPAI UDR AVB positions

Highlights from 2016 Q4 filing as compared to 2016 Q3 filing:
  • New positions in: QCP (~5.95 mln shares), RPAI (~4.24 mln), UDR (~0.85 mln), AVB (~0.29 mln)
  • Increased positions in: FCE.A (to ~10.83 mln shares from ~3.63 mln shares), LEN (to ~3.86 mln from ~2.75 mln), CZR (to ~2.82 mln from ~1.74 mln), H (to ~2.28 mln from ~1.86 mln), ESS (to ~1.2 mln from ~0.96 mln) MSG (to ~0.77 mln from ~0.55 mln), SHW (to ~0.24 mln from ~0.12 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: PGRE (~11.33 mln shares)
  • Closed positions in: BYD (from ~2.83 mln shares), GGP (from ~1.93 mln), LQ (from ~1.89 mln), CAA (from ~0.54 mln), MPW (from ~0.3 mln), MTH (from ~0.14 mln)
  • Decreased positions in: BXMT (to ~1 mln shares from ~5.66 mln shares), MAR (to ~1.24 mln from ~2.07 mln), TCO (to ~1.94 mln from ~2.6 mln)

WSJ : Apple Rally Marks Super-Early Start of iPhone Cycle

Apple Rally Marks Super-Early Start of iPhone Cycle
Apple’s stock is already nearing the peak multiple of past iPhone supercycles

The early bird gets the worm or, in this case, an iPhone supercycle.
Apple’s stock has been on a run of late. The share price has jumped 15% since the year began, outpacing most other megacap stocks in the S&P 500. Most of that has come since the company posted better-than-expected results for its fiscal first quarter two weeks ago. Monday’s gains sent the stock to a record split-adjusted high.
The gains clearly are based on hopes for a strong iPhone cycle later this year. Apple reportedly is planning some significant updates for the smartphone’s 10th anniversary. Goldman Sachs raised its price target on Apple’s stock by 13% Monday to $150, citing its belief that the new device will include 3-D sensors that will enable more augmented-reality applications. At least 26 other brokers have raised their targets on the stock by an average of 10% since the Jan. 31 earnings report.

Such enthusiasm may be understandable given how important the iPhone’s continued contribution is compared with Apple’s other product lines. But past iPhone trade-ups have had their limits, and Apple’s investors should keep that in mind.
Consider that Apple now fetches around 14.6 times forward earnings. That is less than 4% below the stock’s five-year-high multiple of 15.2 times, hit in November 2014. Reaching that peak would bring the stock to about $140 a share. That multiple reflected a strong run-up ahead of the launch of the iPhone 6. A prior rally ahead of the iPhone 5 in 2012 brought the stock to a peak of 13.2 times. Both of those peaks were followed by significant selloffs.
Apple’s share price remains among the cheapest among large tech companies when accounting for its huge pile of net cash. But if history is any guide, Apple’s stock can take only so much shine before the fade sets in.

>>> Coatue Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Adds

Coatue Management discloses updated portfolio positions in 13F filing: Adds BAC, XLF, JPM, DIS; Closes INTC, SQ, TMO
Highlights from 2016 Q4 filing as compared to 2016 Q3 filing:
  • New positions in: BAC (~14.68 mln shares), XLF (~13.26 mln), SYMC (~4.51 mln), JPM (~1.88 mln), HTZ (~1.64 mln), DIS (~1.46 mln), AKRX (~1.43 mln),MLNX (~0.7 mln), NTNX (~0.5 mln), TSLA (~0.04 mln)
  • Increased positions in: FIT (to ~8.27 mln shares from ~2.33 mln shares), NVDA (to ~4.3 mln from ~2 mln), BABA (to ~4.26 mln from ~2.78 mln), CALM (to ~0.84 mln from ~0.4 mln), ZAYO (to ~2.5 mln from ~2.18 mln) NTRI (to ~0.69 mln from ~0.38 mln), MBLY (to ~1.27 mln from ~1 mln)
  • Maintained positions in: JD (~12.7 mln shares), ATVI (~11.74 mln shares), LBRDK (~8.65 mln shares), FB (~6.09 mln shares), EA (~4.35 mln shares), TWX(~2.84 mln shares), AVGO (~1.98 mln shares), EQIX (~0.89 mln shares), GOOG (~0.56 mln shares),
  • Closed positions in: INTC (from ~4.37 mln shares), SQ (from ~0.53 mln), TMO (from ~0.49 mln)
  • Decreased positions in: AAPL (to ~3.19 mln shares from ~6.5 mln shares), NFLX (to ~2.94 mln from ~4.75 mln), LBTY.A (to ~5.74 mln from ~7.43 mln),LBTYK (to ~6.16 mln from ~7.7 mln), PYPL (to ~5.2 mln from ~6.19 mln), BOX (to ~1.12 mln from ~2.04 mln), ILMN (to ~0.06 mln from ~0.55 mln), LCI (to ~1.13 mln from ~1.58 mln), CMCM (to ~1.25 mln from ~1.57 mln), AMT (to ~1.31 mln from ~1.57 mln)

>>> STADA activist Wyser-Pratte describes Cinven offer as 'lowball', sees EUR 65

STADA activist Wyser-Pratte describes Cinven offer as 'lowball', sees EUR 65 as possible

STADA Arzneimittel [ETR:SAZ] should attract a higher offer than Cinven Partners EUR 56-per-share approach, according to activist and minority shareholder Guy Wyser-Pratte.

“It’s a lowball offer,” Wyser-Pratte told this news service. It was likely a lowball bid made to “smoke out” any other bidders rather than a full and final offer, he added.

He has previously said CVC Capital Partners was interested in buying STADA.

Wyser-Pratte, who will only say his stake is below the 3% disclosure threshold, speculated that a private equity player such as Cinven could pay around EUR 65 per share “quite easily”.

STADA has now disclosed that both Cinven and Advent International have approached with “legally non-binding expressions of interest regarding a bid for the acquisition of up to 100%” of the company, according to a statement.
The company is weighing its options and has started open-minded talks with the bidders, it said.

Cinven and Advent already have their own generic pharmaceutical sector portfolio companies that could benefit from cross-fertilisation and cost-cutting post-acquisition, Wyser-Pratte said.

Cinven acquired two companies in 2012 -- Mercury Pharma and Amdipharm. In December 2012, the two companies were merged to create AMCo. Among Advent’s generics portfolio companies are Terapia in Romania and Alcala Farma in Spain.

Strategic buyers could also put their hat in the ring, he said, echoing comments he has made since joining the pack of activists demanding change at the German pharmaceutical group last year.

A strategic buyer could pay even more given the opportunities for synergies, he said.

Commenting on press reports that Novartis [VTX:NOVN] and Mylan Labs were interested, he said either would be “a good fit”.

Active Ownership Capital largely ceased its activist campaign after it successfully urged board changes at STADA’s 2016 AGM, but Wyser-Pratte has constantly argued for a sale.

Another German activist fund, Shareholder Value Management, also backed AOC’s call for board change but has not openly pushed for a sale.

Despite STADA's share price increasing around 40% between when AOC first disclosed its stake in early April 2016 to 10 February, Wyser-Pratte said he believes the company's value is still not where it should be.

He told this news service last July that a board shake-up could lead to an organic market value increase to between EUR 60-EUR 70 per share, and could also open the company up to acquirers.

Speaking to this news service prior to the announcement of the Cinven/Advent bids, Wyser-Pratte said the company had been mismanaged and needs to be sold to a larger player or a private equity player.

“You need to take a broom and clean up the excess and sell them to a larger company,” he said in January.
As reported, other minority shareholders spoken to by this news service have been happy to back the new board and its mid-term strategy, but also wished for a sale to be “on the table” as an option.
STADA declined to comment further than the statement they issued earlier today. Active Ownership Capital declined to comment.

FT : Debt misaligns Reckitt’s risk profile and shareholder returns

Debt misaligns Reckitt’s risk profile and shareholder returns
The $17bn Mead Johnson deal looks likely to ensure CEO will meet his payout targets

Pulling hairs from the tail of a sleeping tiger is risky enough. It is foolhardy when the tiger is half-awake and has bald patches.

Reckitt Benckiser’s pay plan for Rakesh Kapoor, chief executive, may be all that is needed to turn UK investor groups nasty. Egged on by politicians, they are already grouchy.

Last week, a third of shareholders in Thomas Cook, whose remuneration committee chairman Warren Tucker is also on Reckitt’s board, voted against its executive bonus scheme. A couple of weeks before, investors forced Imperial Brands to retreat from a big bonus increase for boss Alison Cooper.

That is a foretaste of what to expect at pay votes this year, which will reach their height in a couple of months. Nearly two-thirds of listed UK companies will have to put their policies and the structure of executive rewards to a triennial binding vote.

Reckitt had its triennial vote last year. Nonetheless, Mr Kapoor’s pay, which ranks him among the top 15 best paid chiefs in the US and UK, reopens an old sore for many investors. His bonuses and long-term incentive plans are measured purely on revenue and earnings per share growth.

The acquisition of Mead Johnson for $17bn will be earnings accretive within a year, and looks likely to ensure that Mr Kapoor will meet his payout targets next year and the year after.

If Reckitt can guarantee to boost investor returns by as much and as fast, they will be happy. They have a Mr Micawberish rule of thumb — returns on capital should exceed the cost of capital by year three.

But Reckitt, which is increasing borrowings by about $16bn to buy Mead Johnson, says returns will only rise above the cost of capital by year five. Net debt will be four times earnings before tax and other negatives in the first year.

Moody’s, which is reviewing Reckitt's credit rating, talks about “very high leverage”. A very large UK shareholder puts it another way: “Eek”.

Yet Reckitt’s board seems oddly oblivious to tensions in the tiger enclosure. Perhaps that is because the chairman of nearly two decades, along with two of the other three non-executive directors on the remuneration committee, are based in the US. There, executive pay has been a less incendiary topic.

Whatever the reason, it may be time for Reckitt’s remco to don ear muffs. This year’s vote on the remuneration report due around May may not be binding but the noise could still be deafening. Apologists for high executive pay dismiss rows as the politics of envy when they are in reality symptoms of disquiet over strategy.

Shareholders might be less antsy if Mr Kapoor’s performance were measured against returns on capital as well as earnings. That won’t change past payouts. The group’s return on capital has anyway been between 15 and 20 per cent a year for the past five years.

But it would reassure investors that their interests as providers of capital were aligned with the users of it.

Lombard found bouncing across Africa’s river beds in a Land Rover Defender and changing gear with both hands to be bodily elevating, not spiritually. It was like driving an Aga on wheels.

Jim Ratcliffe, founder and boss of Ineos, the UK’s largest private industrial business, likes physical challenges and clearly has had better times in the classic 4x4.

He is one of a huge fan club for the off-roader, which hasn’t much changed from its inception in 1948.

Only Mr Ratcliffe, though, could think of taking up manufacturing the 4x4 when Jaguar Land Rover canned production in 2016.

Ineos says it will have a new lookalike Defender on the roads by 2020. JLR, meanwhile, has plans of its own to restart production of Defenders and has already proven it is jealous of the name.

Mr Ratcliffe is not someone to bet against lightly. He sidestepped bankruptcy during the financial crisis, took on the unions at Grangemouth and is still about the 30th richest man in the UK.

He fights his corner and take bets that outsiders find unfathomable. Ineos is now transporting shale gas in freezer-ships built in Asia from the Gulf of Mexico to its petrochemical plants at Grangemouth.

Nonetheless, a race to produce Defenders will be slow and painful to watch. The off-roader has advantages. It is relatively easy to repair even in sub-Saharan salt pans. But Ineos says its version will be built on traditional lines. The chassis will be on an existing base frame, and don’t expect satnav.

Tooling up an assembly line to make the Ineos 4x4 both safe, green and commercial will be expensive and heavy going.

Most people have ways of taking refuge from reality. A former colleague would take Proust to the stairwell when things were grim. Mr Ratcliffe has greater resources to go where he likes to escape. But other Defender fans should not bank on being given a ride.