FT : Italy’s Padoan warns Europe not to waste Macron momentum

Italy’s Padoan warns Europe not to waste Macron momentum
Rome agrees with French suggestions to improve working of single currency area

Pier Carlo Padoan, Italy’s finance minister, has warned eurozone leaders not to squander the chance to reform the single currency created by Emmanuel Macron’s French election win and said the pro-EU president’s victory was a political “watershed” for the continent.

“Europe has the opportunity not only to get rid of the populist threat from a political and electoral point of view but to establish a new social pact with European citizens, which has to do with welfare, jobs and security,” Mr Padoan said in an interview with the Financial Times. “Macron tilts the balance in the right direction and I hope we don’t waste it.”

Italy’s finance minister also laid down the gauntlet to his own country’s politicians and voters, saying Italy had to “decide if it will be an obstacle or an agent of progress in the eurozone”.

Following Mr Macron’s election win Italy remains a focus of political risk for the eurozone, with general elections due next year when anti-establishment Eurosceptics, led by the Five Star Movement, will challenge the ruling centre-left Democratic party.

“Italian policymakers should say: ‘We can win the elections on a pro-European and pro-growth agenda.’ If we think that we can beat populism by running after populist themes, then we are dead,” Mr Padoan, 67, said.

Italy’s economy is in its third full year of a sluggish economic recovery. The European Commission forecast for this year is for a 0.9 per cent rise in gross domestic product compared with the eurozone average of 1.7 per cent.

“Let’s hope we can read the situation carefully. One of the moods you hear in Europe is OK, the economy is strong, the worst is over, so we have more space for fiscal tightening and the rest will come,” Mr Padoan said, in an implicit warning to deficit hawks in the currency bloc. “If we limit ourselves to fiscal discipline, then we run the same risk as 2010 and 2011 [the worst years of the eurozone crisis].”

The future of the eurozone was discussed by Mr Macron and Paolo Gentiloni, Italy’s prime minister, in Paris on Sunday. In a statement Mr Macron called for a “common budget capacity” and a “real eurozone of investments” that could help “reduce the divergence among our economies”.

“This divergence created the financial tensions that Italy suffered in recent years,” the French president added, flanked by Mr Gentiloni.

Rome supports some of Mr Macron’s plans for the eurozone such as the creation of a finance minister and budget. Mr Padoan said he expected Germany to welcome Mr Macron’s plans for structural economic reforms, making it easier for a convergence of views on the eurozone’s future. But he suggested Germany would have to be more welcoming of fiscal transfers — such as a common unemployment insurance scheme — to make the currency bloc work better.

“The nightmare of the average German voter is that they will lose their money to the terrible southerners. Let’s be serious about this: in history we know monetary integration requires some form of redistribution,” he said. “Otherwise the adjustment that will come sooner or later will be much more damaging — to all countries.”

Italy has insisted that any transfers should not be seen as “permanent” but “reversible” depending on economic conditions.

Mr Padoan defended Rome’s policy of following a narrow path of gradual deficit reduction while maintaining modest growth, rather than more aggressive pursuit of the country’s heavy debt load. He also insisted Italy was pressing on with economic reforms in the labour market, bureaucracy and justice system.

One of the factors holding back Italy’s economy — and making it a weak link in the eurozone’s financial system — is the quantity of non-performing loans in the banking sector. In December, Rome set aside €20bn to help ailing banks, chiefly Monte dei Paschi di Siena.

Negotiations with the EU and ECB over the terms of the MPS bailout have been dragging on for months, amid discussion on how to interpret EU rules on bank rescues. Italian officials now expect an agreement by next month on MPS, with others to follow.

Mr Padoan insisted the process was on schedule. “We are doing things by the rules, and the fact that we are taking time is also related to the fact that we are in a learning process — not just the banks but also the Italian and European authorities. We are setting a precedent, a benchmark,” he said.

“We are not losing time, we are working 24 hours a day to deal with the issue and we are confident that we will successfully conclude the talks.”

WWD : Study Predicts More Megadeals; Rebound in Valuations Ahead

Study Predicts More Megadeals; Rebound in Valuations Ahead
With organic growth slowing, companies will rely on acquisitions to grow their businesses.

Consumer and retail mergers and acquisitions activity in 2016 suggests that the megadeal is back, and projections from A.T. Kearney indicate that 2017 could see an uptick in dealmaking, this time accompanied by a rebound in valuations.

According to the global strategy and management consulting firm’s report, “Off to New Peaks in Uncertain Times,” there were 58 megadeals valued at more than $1 billion in 2016. Outside of the megadeal, global M&A deal value involving consumer and retail firms passed the $450 billion mark for the first time since 2008, a 30 percent gain over 2015.

The study surveyed C-level executives at strategic and financial firms who would be buyers, as well as their counterparts at firms that might be sellers. Of those who participated, 67 percent said they anticipate an increase in M&A activity.

Consumer goods and food firms led the overall increase in M&A, with a 46 percent jump. Europe was the most active region, with almost half the total deal value. Valuations cooled, however, while financial buyers stayed mostly on the sidelines. The latter was due in part to low oil prices holding back some sovereign wealth funds, while rising interest rates in early 2016 drove up the cost of high-yield debt, a source of funding for acquisitions relied upon by many private equity firms. And strategic buyers with strong balance sheets and better synergies with their target companies tended to beat out the financial buyers last year.

But those dynamics are likely to change as 2017 progresses. A.T. Kearney expects more growth in the consumer and retail M&A market this year. It also expects deal multiples to rise on both “growing global optimism and a strong U.S. dollar.” Further, by early March, high-yield rates had dropped to historic lows and the spread between those rates and Treasury bond yields had narrowed. Lower rates drive down acquisition costs for private equity firms.

Financial buyers who remained sidelined throughout the last year piled up capital, and their “dry power” climbed to about $1.5 trillion last year and now needs to be put to use.

According to Bahige El-Rayes, a principal in the consumer and retail practice at A.T. Kearney and co-author of the report, consolidation is another key theme globally that will help drive M&A activity. Examples of the megadeal and mega-megadeal are the $48.7 billion Essilor and Luxottica and the $9.41 billion Walgreens and Rite Aid transactions. More recently, Kate Spade & Co. earlier this month agreed to be acquired by Coach Inc. for $2.4 billion.

“Consumers are not spending, so they will do deals to grow. Organic growth in this environment is very tough….It is cheaper and safer to go and buy someone else,” he explained.

El-Rayes added that consumers have shifted their mind-set, whether for apparel or beauty, and they are seeking brands that are different, or offer a unique shopping experience. He noted that companies that do well are those that offer accessibility and a brand story, but there are “few players that can do both well.”

And while smaller firms tend to do both better than their larger counterpart, they often don’t have an adequate infrastructure that allows them to scale production. “That makes these firms the perfect acquisition target. They have a brand that tells a story that connects with certain customers, while the buyer can provide access [to an infrastructure] and scale them. This is how you can get growth [for both businesses],” he said.

As for the rise in valuations, El-Rayes didn’t think the 21 percent decline from 2015 levels would be repeated this year. “Going forward, we see deal multiples springing back as a result of mounting global optimism and the strong U.S. dollar.” Also boosting multiples will be more buyers chasing fewer companies. According to El-Rayes, there are “not enough good companies out there,” and that means those really good firms that go to market will be in a position of strength when negotiating deal terms and price.

While the survey’s respondents said they expect increased pressure to grow across global markets, political uncertainty could make cross-border transactions more complex and lead to firms favoring domestic and repatriation transactions.

TechCrunch : Examining the NYC footprints of global tech titans

Examining the NYC footprints of global tech titans


New York City has emerged as a technology powerhouse over the past few years.
The City’s namesake companies like WeWork, Tumblr, and BuzzFeed have catalyzed startup activity and inspired the next-generation of New York natives including Oscar, Warby Parker, Squarespace, Blue Apron, Rent the Runway — the list goes on.
Since 2014, VCs have invested about $1.2 billion in seed funding in New York-based startups.
As New York’s native tech community grows, more established tech companies like Google and Facebook have taken notice and opened up satellite offices in the City. These legacy companies play an important role in stabilizing the startup ecosystem here.
Their presence has lowered the risk profile associated with starting a company in New York — entrepreneurs find comfort in knowing that if their startup doesn’t work out, there’s a growing number of stable technology opportunities to fall back on (IBM alone employs nine thousand engineers in New York).
These companies also provide a training ground for many future founders — Jon Steinberg of BuzzFeed and Cheddar; Spencer Kimball of Cockroach Labs; and Matt Burton of Orchard; for example, are all former NYC Googlers (fondly dubbed “Xooglers”).
To get a pulse of the role these companies have played in driving innovation and catalyzing startup activity, we decided to dig a little deeper.

We turned to LinkedIn data to answer the following questions:
Just how big are these tech titans’ NYC offices? What’s the breakdown of engineering vs. non-engineering talent? How do these offices stack up to their west coast counterparts?
Here’s what we learned:
  • These 22 companies alone employ nearly 20 thousand engineers in NYC.
  • IBM is New York’s biggest tech employer with 20 thousand employees and nearly nine thousandengineers.
  • New York’s pretty important to Spotify. The company has 28% of their employees here, the highest percentage of the companies we looked at. 29% of their engineers are here.
  • The GrubHub/Seamless New York office is an engineering powerhouse. While only 19% of the company is based in NYC, more than 30% of their engineering team is based here. That’s 130 engineers.
  • Snap’s NYC office is more sales and marketing focused. While 12% of their total team is based here, only 6% of their engineers work out of the New York office.
(Scroll to the bottom to see our methodology)

Here’s a breakdown of each satellite office


Here’s how we did it:
We turned to LinkedIn Sales Navigator data to address the following questions:
  1. What percentage of the company is based in NYC? We compared employees who work at the company across all geographies vs. those who work in the Greater New York City Area.
  2. What percentage of the company’s engineering force is based in NYC? Defining the roles that qualify as “engineer” is a bit tricky, but we landed on anyone with the job function “engineering” “product management” “arts and design” (to account for UX and UI designers) and “IT.” We compared these across all geographies vs the Greater New York City Area vs the San Fransisco Bay Area. (Note: We used LA for Snap).
  3. Within each NYC-office, what’s the breakdown of engineers vs. sales/marketing positions? Using the same criteria to define engineer as above, we compared the engineering headcount vs total headcount in Greater New York City area.
We’re not claiming our data is perfect (not everyone is on LinkedIn, and those who are self-report) but in the age of online-resumes, it’s safe to assume these numbers are directionally accurate.

(zh) Shocking Admission From NY Bankruptcy Judge: "Chapter 11, 15 Filings Have E

A stunning soundbite was captured by a Bloomberg reporter during last week's event at the American Bankruptcy Institute. According to judges speaking at an ABI conference Thursday in Manhattan, the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Southern District of New York is seeing a sharp rise in cases this year, with Chapter 11 and Chapter 15 filings outpacing national averages.

"Chapter 11s and Chapter 15s have exploded" said U.S. Bankruptcy Judge Shelley Chapman, speaking at American Bankruptcy Institute event, cited by Bloomberg reporter Tiffany Kary.

The numbers for the bankruptcy court which serves Manhattan are, frankly, horrifying: Chapter 11s have tripled in the first quarter of the year, while Chapter 15s for companies seeking U.S. aid for a reorganization in a foreign court have increased sevenfold, Chapman added.

What makes New York data so dramatic is that the region's bankruptcy filings contrast with national data, that show Chapter 11 filings are down slightly, Judge Carla Craig from Eastern District of New York said.

New York is not alone it seems: As Bloomberg adds, Judge Brendan Shannon from Delaware said he has also seen an uptick in Chapter 11s and Chapter 15s, though not as marked as in New York. Shannon also sees trend in retail and energy sector bankruptcies continuing, based on current cases .

The culprit? Take one guess:

“The report is that for at least a lot of retailers, it is certainly a difficult, if not flat out impossible environment to operate in,” Shannon said. “We do see more of those cases likely on the horizon.”

And while we appreciate the transfer of business from bricks and mortar retail to online, it is simply impossible that the millions of soon to be laid off legacy retail, minimum-wage workers will find suitable employment in the coming retail bankruptcy tsunami (which will claim the following 11 names next according to Fitch), and which will unleash a tidal wave of bankruptcies first across New York, and soon after, across the entire US. How far this particular destructive tsunami of default will reach, and how fast, will determine just how acute the next recession will be.

>>> Bitcoin to the roof ...2128.40 (traded up to 2187.7849) +108% YTD



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 05/22/17 09:47:58
Subject: >>> Bitcoin to the roof ...2128.40 (traded up to 2187.7849) +108% YTD
Few articles this Week end :
- FT : Japan eyes prize in regulating bitcoin - Efforts to regulate the crypto currency by the Japanese may sharpen its appeal - https://www.ft.com/content/f102c906-3a23-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
- FT : Ban cryptocurrencies to tackle cyber attacks From Misha Cohen, London, UK — This is Friday’s most read letter - https://www.ft.com/content/051027ee-3b06-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
- TechCrunch : Bitcoin just surged past $2,000 for the first time - https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/20/btc2k/

>>> Bitcoin to the roof ...2128.40 (traded up to 2187.7849) +108% YTD

Few articles this Week end :
- FT : Time to regulate the cryptocurrencies - https://www.ft.com/content/b637ffdc-3cba-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
- FT : Japan eyes prize in regulating bitcoin - Efforts to regulate the crypto currency by the Japanese may sharpen its appeal - https://www.ft.com/content/f102c906-3a23-11e7-821a-6027b8a20f23
- FT : Ban cryptocurrencies to tackle cyber attacks From Misha Cohen, London, UK — This is Friday’s most read letter - https://www.ft.com/content/051027ee-3b06-11e7-ac89-b01cc67cfeec
- TechCrunch : Bitcoin just surged past $2,000 for the first time - https://techcrunch.com/2017/05/20/btc2k/

FT : Japan eyes prize in regulating bitcoin



From: LAURENT CHEKROUN (MAKOR SECURITIES LO) At: 05/20/17 15:48:04
Subject: FT : Japan eyes prize in regulating bitcoin
Japan eyes prize in regulating bitcoin
Efforts to regulate the crypto currency by the Japanese may sharpen its appeal

As speculative fever takes hold, cybercriminals taint the brand with ransom demands and prices whipsaw between record highs and cliff-edge stumbles, governments, investors and financial institutions are legitimately asking whether the world is ready for bitcoin.

A thornier question — soon to be answered in Japan — is whether bitcoin is ready for “Mrs Watanabe”, the notional holder of the nation’s household purse-strings.

Since April 1 this year, as the global market value of bitcoins and other cryptocurrencies has surpassed $50bn, a growing number of online exchanges, funds and remittance companies has been scrambling to make formal registrations with the Japan Financial Services Agency. The process is expensive, demanding, laced with invisible tripwires and not all applicants, by any means, will be successful.

The prize, though, could be spectacular. Japanese retail investors — a group that does include a lot of Mrs Watanabe housewives but is actually dominated by her day-trading children and their leveraged online accounts — are voracious. FX margin trading in Japan, the “Mrs Watanabe” favourite with volumes at about $10tn per quarter, is the largest in the world. A minute fraction of that channelled towards the bitcoin market, say the most excitable proponents, could be transformational.

Propelling the rush to register is new legislation that (perhaps counter-intuitively for a country whose financial services industry still routinely uses fax machines), puts Japan comfortably at the head of the global pack on crypto currency trading regulation. Some US states have their own regulation for local bitcoin exchanges, but so far, no central government has taken the plunge and attempted to regulate an asset that was invented to defy regulation. It is easy to see why the FSA is keen to move: Japan, by volume, is one of the largest centres of bitcoin trading on any given day and has been helped by China clamping down. The Japanese government — unexpectedly clear-headed on the issue — sees as much potential opportunity as threat in that.

Hence the stampede to register exchanges and other businesses with the FSA. The prospect of a market where the government has demystified an otherwise enigmatic asset and Mrs Watanabe has been soothed by seeing the stamp of a regulator known for its conservatism, is simply too lucrative a bet to pass up.

By October 1, any bitcoin or “alternative coin” exchange or money transfer business that wants to operate in Japan must come under the regulatory supervision of the FSA and be submitted to annual audits. Much of the regulation (some of it in the familiar language of anti-money laundering measures and “know-your-customer” protocols) represents an attempt by Japan to purge some of the anarchy from bitcoin’s image. Other parts are designed to ensure separation between the stashes of customers’ bitcoins from those belonging to the exchanges themselves — a measure that might have avoided some of the chaos that followed the 2014 collapse of what was at the time the world’s biggest bitcoin exchange, the Japan-based Mt Gox.

In a final regulatory flourish that gently mocks the first two-thirds of the phrase “digital crypto currency”, new customers will not be able to trade until they have received a hard-copy acknowledgment letter, delivered by registered post to their home address.

But for all the regulatory freight, this is a strangely light-footed moment for Japan and the FSA. To reach this point, a series of surprisingly un-Japanese breaches of natural conservatism have been necessary — not least, the formal recognition of bitcoins as a legal payment system.

There are several reasons for the leap. The first arises from the Mt Gox catastrophe, the high global visibility of what remains one of the biggest digital heists in history, an international cast of furious investors and the FSA’s fierce discomfort that all this happened on its turf. This is an assertion of control by Japan, but one driven by the desire to legitimise something that it knows, from long experience, that Mrs Watanabe may very well be interested in.

Just as important, though, is the extent to which fintech — a loosely-mapped Aladdin’s cave of blockchain technology, crypto currency trading, artificial intelligence data analysis and other envisaged innovation — lies at the heart of government plans to turbo-charge Japan’s comatose financial services industry. Everyone loves and talks up the idea of Japanese banks (only recently armed with the legal ability to do so) splurging investment towards bleeding-edge fintech; nobody, confides the president of one of Japan’s three megabanks, is going to invest a single yen until there is a regulatory framework in place.

The way regulation has been handled in Japan, say companies currently applying for the licence, is both curse and blessing. On the one hand, there are elements of the regulation that are heavy handed and could ultimately threaten a crypo-currency that has thrived on anonymity. Apart from bitcoin, for example, there are more than 800 alternative currencies on the market, but the FSA is effectively approving only one of them, ethereum.

“When you are talking about start-ups, which of course a lot of the bitcoin-related businesses are, you never really think of regulation as a good thing,” says Mike Kayamori, chief executive of the crypto currency exchange Quoine, who argues that Japan has a long history of using regulation to squash innovation and “undesirable” areas of industry as it famously did with consumer loan companies in the late 2000s. “But in this case, it just might be different. The retail investor — Mrs Watanabe — doesn’t want the wild, wild west, she wants something regulated and trustworthy.”

(The Independant) : The Real reason Trump is in Saudia Arabia

This is the aim of Donald Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia – and it isn't good for Shia communities
The Sunni Saudis and the Gulf kings possess immense wealth, the only religion that Trump really respects, and they want to destroy Shia Iran, Syria, the Hezbollah and the Houthis – which is a simple ‘anti-terrorist’ story for the Americans


Donald Trump sets off on Friday to create the fantasy of an Arab Nato. There will be dictators aplenty to greet him in Riyadh, corrupt autocrats and thugs and torturers and head choppers. There will be at least one zombie president – the comatose, undead Abdelaziz Bouteflika of Algeria who neither speaks nor, apparently, hears any more – and, of course, one totally insane president, Donald Trump. The aim, however, is simple: to prepare the Sunni Muslims of the Middle East for war against the Shia Muslims. With help from Israel, of course.

Even for those used to the insanity of Arab leadership – not to mention those Westerners who have still to grasp that the US President is himself completely off his rocker – the Arab-Muslim (Sunni) summit in Saudi Arabia is almost beyond comprehension. From Pakistan and Jordan and Turkey and Egypt and Morocco and 42 other minareted capitals, they are to come so that the effete and ambitious Saudis can lead their Islamic crusade against “terrorism” and Shiism. The fact that most of the Middle East’s “terrorism” – Isis and al-Qaeda, aka the Nusrah Front – have their fountainhead in the very nation to which Trump is travelling, must and will be ignored. Never before in Middle Eastern history has such a “kumidia alakhta” – quite literally “comedy of errors” in Arabic – been staged.

On top of all this, they have to listen to Trump’s ravings on peace and Islamic “extremism”, surely the most preposterous speech to be uttered by a US president since he is going to have to pretend that Iran is extremist – when it is Saudi Arabia’s Wahhabi Isis clones who are destroying Islam’s reputation throughout the world. All this while he is fostering war.

For Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman (henceforth MbS) wants to lead his Sunni tribes – plus Iraq if possible, which is why Shia Prime Minister Abadi has been invited from Baghdad – against the serpent of “terrorist” Shia Iran, the dark (Shia) “terrorist” Alawite regime of Bashar al-Assad, the “terrorist” Shia Lebanese Hezbollah and the aggressive “terrorist” Shia Houthis of Yemen. As for the Gulf states’ own Shia minorities and other recalcitrants, well, off with their heads.

After all, that’s what the Saudis did to the prominent Saudi Shia leader Sheikh Nimr al-Nimr last year: they cut his head from his body, Isis-style, in a classic bit of Wahhabi decapitation, along with 47 other “terrorists”. And any powerful Shias in neighbouring Gulf countries will be cut down, too – which is what happened to Bahrain’s Shia majority when the Saudi army moved in to occupy the island in 2011 at the “request” of its Sunni ruler.

And you can see why America’s disgraceful President, a man who truly falls into the regional pantheon of raving loonies – he surely ranks among the Gaddafis and Ahmadinejads of the Middle East – goes along with this. The fact that Isis – Trump’s mortal enemy and the strategic adversary of his defence chiefs – is a creature of the same Salafist cult as Saudi Arabia, is neither here nor there. The Sunni Saudis and the Gulf kings and princes possess immense wealth, the only religion that Trump really respects, and they want to destroy Shia Iran and Syria and the Hezbollah and the Houthis – which is a simple “anti-terrorist” story for the Americans – and this means that Trump can give MbS and his chums $100bn (£77bn) of US missiles, planes, ships and ammo for the war-to-come. America will be happy. And Israel will be happy.

I guess Crown Prince Jared Kushner thinks he can handle this end of the Arab-Nato alliance, though the Israelis themselves will be perfectly happy to watch the Sunnis and Shia fight each other, just as they did during the 1980-88 Iran-Iraq war when the US supported Sunni Saddam – albeit that his army was mostly Shia – and the Israelis furnished US missiles to the Shia Iranians. Already, the Israelis have distinguished themselves by bombing the Syrian army, the Hezbollah and the Iranians in the Syrian war – while leaving Isis untouched and giving medical assistance to al-Qaeda (Nusrah) on Golan.

Much has been made (rightly) of MbS’s threat to ensure that the battle is “in Iran and not in Saudi Arabia”. But, typically, few bothered to listen to Iran’s ferocious reply to the Saudi threat. It came promptly from the Iranian defence minister, Hossein Dehghan. “We warn them [the Saudis] against doing anything ignorant,” he said, “but if they do something ignorant, we will leave nowhere untouched apart from Mecca and Medina.” In other words, it’s time to start building air raid shelters in Riyadh, Jeddah, Dhahran, Aramco headquarters and all those other locations dear to American hearts.

Indeed, it’s difficult not to recall an almost identical Sunni hubris – almost four decades ago – to that of MbS today. The latter boasts of his country’s wealth and his intention to diversify, enrich and broaden its economic base. In 1980, Saddam was determined to do the same. He used Iraq’s oil wealth to cover the country in super-highways, modern technology, state-of-the-art healthcare and hospitals and modern communications. Then he kicked off his “lightning war” with Iran. It impoverished his oil-rich nation, humiliated him in the eyes of his fellow Arabs – who had to cough up the cash for his disastrous eight-year adventure – led to Saddam’s invasion of Kuwait, sanctions and the ultimate Anglo-US invasion of 2003 and, for Saddam, the hangman’s noose.

Yet this leaves out the Syrian dimension. Sharmine Narwani, a former senior associate of St Antony’s College – and an antidote for all those sickened by the mountebank think-tank “experts” of Washington – pointed out this week that US support for Kurdish forces fighting under the dishonest label of “Syrian Democratic Forces” are, by advancing on Raqqa, helping to cut Syria off from Iraq. And that Kurdish forces are now reported as “retaking” Christian or Muslim Arab towns in the Nineveh province of Iraq, which were never Kurdish in the first place. Kurds now regard Qamishleh, and Hassakeh province in Syria as part of “Kurdistan”, although they represent a minority in many of these areas. Thus US support for these Kurdish groups – to the fury of Sultan Erdogan and the few Turkish generals still loyal to him – is helping to both divide Syria and divide Iraq.

This cannot and will not last. Not just because the Kurds are born to be betrayed – and will be betrayed by the Americans even if the present maniac-in-charge is impeached, just as they were betrayed to Saddam in the days of Kissinger – but because Turkey’s importance (with or without its own demented leader) will always outweigh Kurdish claims to statehood. Both are Sunnis, and therefore “safe” allies until one of them – inevitably the Kurds – must be abandoned.

Meanwhile, you can forget justice, civil rights, sickness and death. Cholera has quite a grip on Yemen now, courtesy of the criminal bombing attacks of the Saudis – ably assisted by their American allies long before Trump took over – and scarcely any of the Muslim leaders whom Trump meets in Riyadh do not have torturers at work back home to ensure that some of their citizens wish they had never been born. It will be a relief for the fruitcake president to leave Israel for the Vatican, albeit given only a brief visitation to – and short shrift by – a real peacemaker.

That only leaves one nation out of the loop of this glorious charivari: Russia. But be sure Vladimir Putin comprehends all too well what is going on in Riyadh. He will watch the Arab Nato fall apart. His foreign minister Lavrov understands Syria and Iran better than the feckless Tillerson. And his security officers are deep inside Syria. Besides, if he needs any more intelligence information, he has only to ask Trump.