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What we know about Swiss National Bank’s investment in US stocks
Who or what is keeping stock prices up even as there is continuous economic and political turmoil around the world?
Could it be Switzerland?
Stock prices fell sharply last Wednesday when the latest “scandal” — and I don’t even remember what it was — struck the Trump administration. I mentioned in a column on Thursday my Top 10 reasons US investors should be wary of ever-rising stock prices.
One of the 10 things was the manipulation of equities markets by countries like China and Japan, which proudly admit to doing so.
And then there’s the mysterious case of Switzerland, which has an enormous portfolio of US stocks — and no obvious reason that it keeps buying.
According to its last filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission, the Swiss National Bank owned more than $63 billion worth of stock — most of it in US companies.
In fact, that amount was $1 billion higher than it was in the previous quarterly filing with the SEC.
Since large shareholders are only required to make quarterly reports to the SEC, there’s no telling how active the Swiss National Bank is on a given day or whether it jumps in to support weak markets.
The latest filing included more than 15 million shares of Apple, 13 million Intel, 25 million General Electric, 6.6 million Facebook, 10 million Ford, 13 million Intel and on and on and…
In fact, a printed list of all the stocks is 66 pages long.
No matter what the motive is for the purchase of all that stock, the end result is the same — it’s helping to prop up stock prices.
And, I admit, the reason for the Swiss appetite for stocks could be nothing more than investment purposes. Like everyone else, the Swiss National Bank could be buying simply because the returns elsewhere — like in the bond market — are so abysmal.
But is it possible that the Swiss are acting as an agent of US financial authorities who fear that a big decline in stock prices would be against America’s national interest?
OK, I hear people shouting “conspiracy theory” already. So let’s get a little deeper into history.
Central banks around the world have always come to one another’s rescue in currency markets. If America, for instance, wanted the US dollar to be stronger than it is, a foreign central bank like Switzerland’s would purchase dollars on behalf of the US.
Mission accomplished. And nobody is the wiser that the US was behind the propping up of the dollar.
Here’s another fact. A guy named Robert Heller, who had been a governor on the Federal Reserve Board, proposed in 1989 that the Fed rig the US stock market in the event of an emergency.
Heller said this should be done only in dire situations, like the stock market crash of 1987 and the near crash just a month before he proposed this. Heller argued that rigging stocks — through the purchase by the Federal Reserve of stock index futures contracts — would be no harder than manipulating the currency markets.
Why is this one of the things investors should worry about? Because there’s no telling why the Swiss National Bank is buying all that stock and when it will stop. As so with other investors, if interest rates rise high enough, the Swiss may decide that stocks aren’t worth the risk.
So, all I have to say is: Go, Switzerland! You buy our stocks , and we’ll eat your chocolate.
It seems like a fair deal.
Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance:
- RAVN +6.9%, MOMO +6.4%, CDNA +5.5%, CRMT +5.1%, A +2.8%, TOL +2.6%, TTM +2.4%, DSW +2%, TTWO +1.4%, EVLV +0.9%
Other news:
- TGTX +10% (announces that the DSMB of the UNITY-CLL Phase 3 trial has successfully completed a pre-specified interim analysis)
- NOK +6.3% (Nokia and Apple (AAPL) settle all litigation related to their intellectual property dispute and agreed a multi-year patent license)
- ERIC +4% (in sympathy with NOK)
- OPHT +3.6% (D. E. SHAW increases passive stake to 5.0%)
- SBPH +2.9% (very thinly traded; to host a conference call on Wednesday, May 24, 2017, at 8:00 a.m. ET, to discuss top-line results from the initial 25mg monotherapy dosing cohort of the Phase 2a segment of its ACHIEVE trial)
- GKOS +2.6% (Glaukos reported that study revealed potential cost efficiency of using two Glaukos iStent trabecular micro-bypass stents to treat elevated IOP in glaucoma patients)
- AT +2.1% (light volume; CEO disclosed purchase of 15,489 shares)
- AAOI +0.9% (continued strength)
- TPX +0.9% (Director disclosed purchase of 150K shares worth about $6.90 mln)
Analyst comments:
- WING +3.9% (added to Conviction Buy List at Goldman)
- ATW +3% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman)
- CVNA +2.6% (initiated with a Outperform at Wells Fargo, initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill, among others)
- CLDR +2.4% (initiated with a Buy at Deutsche Bank)
- RS +1.7% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill)
- MCK +1.1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
Cracker Barrel beats by $0.10, misses on revs; guides Q4 EPS in-line; raises quarterly dividend 4.3%; announces $3.50/share special dividend (161.41)
- Reports Q3 (Apr) earnings of $1.95 per share, $0.10 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $1.85; revenues were unchanged from the year-ago period at $700.4 mln vs. $713 mln consensus.
- Comparable store restaurant sales decreased 0.4% (Feb -1.7%, March -1.3%, April +1.2%), as a 2.1% decline in comparable store restaurant traffic was partially offset by a 1.7% increase in average check. The average menu price increase for the quarter was ~1.6%. Comparable store retail sales decreased 4.7% from the prior year quarter. Reductions in cost of goods sold and general and administrative expenses were partially offset by increases in labor and related expenses and other store operating expenses.
- Co issues in-line guidance for Q4, sees EPS of $2.10-2.20 vs. $2.19 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
- Co issues in-line guidance for FY17, sees EPS of $8.25-8.35 vs. $8.23 Capital IQ Consensus Estimate; sees FY17 revs of $2.95 bln vs. $2.96 bln Capital IQ Consensus Estimate.
- Board of Directors increased the quarterly dividend to $1.20 per share on the Company's common stock, which represents a 4.3% increase over the Company's previous quarterly dividend of $1.15. The quarterly dividend is payable on August 4, 2017 to shareholders of record on July 14, 2017.
- The Board of Directors also declared a special dividend of $3.50 per share on the Company's common stock. This is the Company's third special dividend declaration. The special dividend is payable on July 28, 2017 to shareholders of record on July 14, 2017.
Early premarket gappers
Gapping up:
- RAVN +6.9%, NOK +5.8%, CDNA +5.5%, CRMT +5.1%, A +4.3%, ERIC +4%,MOMO +4%, OPHT +3.6%, SBPH +2.9%, GKOS +2.6%, TOL +2.6%, JKS+2.4%, AT +2.1%, DSW +1.9%, RBS +1.7%, RS +1.7%, AU +1.6%, AAOI+1.1%, DB +1%, TPX +0.9%, EVLV +0.9%
Gapping down:
- KOS -7.3%, AZO -6.3%, AAP -5%, MB -4.6%, PRGO -4.6%, TEDU -2.9%,MIME -2.7%, GPC -2.7%, TTWO -2.5%, CWH -2.5%, H -2.4%, GLYC -2.2%,NOW -1.7%, SNCR -1.5%, STX -1.1%, BHP -1.1%, WLL -0.9%, AMD -0.9%,QCOM -0.8