>>> Orlebar Brown founder Adam Brown hires Cavendish Corp Fin to advise on inves

Orlebar Brown founder Adam Brown hires Cavendish Corp Fin to advise on investment options - report
27 AUG 2017
Orlebar Brown's founder Adam Brown has hired Cavendish Corporate Finance to advise on investment options for the UK-based swimwear company, The Sunday Telegraph reported. The newspaper did not cite a source for the information.
The report estimated that Orlebar Brown could sell for GBP 50m (EUR 54.0m). The company is likely to draw interest from buyout groups, the item said.
The report noted forecast turnover of GBP 23m this year for Orlebar Brown.
Piper Private Equity took a significant minority stake in Orlebar Brown in August 2013. Orlebar Brown is listed as a current investment on the Piper Private Equity website.

(ZH) Goldman "Unexpectedly" Exempt From Venezuela Bond Trading Ban



Goldman "Unexpectedly" Exempt From Venezuela Bond Trading Ban

When the White House announced on Friday that Trump had signed an executive order deepening the sanctions on Venezuela, and confirming the previously rumored trading ban in Venezuelan debt that earlier in the week had sent VENZ/PDVSA bonds tumbling, we made what we thought at the time was a sarcastic comment that in light of the recent scandal involving Goldman's purchase of Venezuela Hunger Bonds, that Lloyd Blankfein's hedge fund, which now controls the presidency and next year will also take over the Fed courtesy of Gary Cohn, would be exempt from the trading ban:
zerohedge @zerohedge
So all bonds owned by Goldman are exempt from the Venezuela sanctions until Goldman can sell them?
8:01 PM - Aug 25, 2017
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And, as it so often happens in a world controlled by Goldman (as a reminder, in 2018 the world's three most important central banks, the Fed, the ECB and the BOE will be run by former Goldman employees: Gary Cohn, Mario Draghi and Mark Carney), sarcasm has a way of chronically turning into truth, and as Bloomberg confirmed overnight, one of Venezuela's largest bondholders is "breathing a sigh of relief."
That would be Goldman Sachs Asset Management, which infamously bought $2.8 billion of notes issued by state oil company PDVSA in May, and has since faced sharp criticism for a deal that appeared to supply fresh funds to President Nicolas Maduro. Confirming our initial "sarcastic" reaction, while observers thought the Goldman bonds would be a prime target for new penalties, they were exempt from the order. In fact, the only bonds covered by the trading ban are notes due in 2036 that appear to never have been sold outside Caracas.
“That was somewhat surprising,” said Francisco Rodriguez, the chief economist at Torino Capital in New York. “I guess the logic is that those bonds are already in the hands of bondholders, so you wouldn’t be really blocking new financing.”
Actually no, Francisco, the logic is that if Goldman was forced to liquidate the bonds, or worse was stuck holding them as Venezuela went bankrupt, it would take a huge hit on the nearly $3 billion notional position. As such, Goldman's advisors to Trump made it quite clear that any sanctions against Venezuela would have to be Goldman Sachs revenue netural first and foremost.
That's precisely what happened.
Even more ironic is that the market immediately saw right through Trump's shallow attempt to "punish" Venezuela which however would exempt his top Wall Street advisory, and the market reaction across the board was fairly muted Friday, with both sovereign bonds and notes from Petroleos de Venezuela SA posting gains.
The gains on Friday -- with most notes up less than half a cent -- show investors’ relief after the Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that U.S. officials were considering a blanket ban on all trading in Venezuelan debt. Such a move would have left investors stuck holding debt that is considered among the world’s riskiest.
As described yesterday, the new executive order bans Venezuela from raising cash with new debt offerings, and prohibits transactions in older bonds held by government officials and entities... just not Goldman Sachs. The sanctions will likely force the oil-rich nation to reduce imports to conserve cash, thus deepening the already severe economic contraction in the country, according to Rodriguez.
In retrospect, it appears that Goldman will benefit not just once but twice from the latest Trump "sanctions" - the second time will be on the bank's long oil prop position (remember when the Volcker rule prevented banks from putting on proprietary positions for a few months back in 2010... good times) as oil is about to spike should Venezuela finally default: 
“There is also the concern that the order may push Venezuela over the brink and lead them to default,” Rodriguez said. “Certainly the more restrictions on financing that you place, the harder you make it for them to pay.”
Of course, Venezuela's default is just a matter of time, but it won't take place before Goldman dumps its bond holdings to some unwitting retail investor or some German widows and orphans: Goldman’s investing arm is the largest holder of bonds from Petroleos de Venezuela and the seventh-largest holder of Venezuelan sovereign debt as of June 30, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Andrew Williams, a spokesman at Goldman Sachs Group Inc., declined to comment.

FT : US may struggle to extradite SocGen bankers over Libor

US may struggle to extradite SocGen bankers over Libor
France has proved reluctant to surrender citizens in prior rate-rigging cases

US authorities will need to overcome sizeable hurdles if they are to successfully prosecute two French Société Générale bankers charged over alleged Libor rigging, legal experts have said.

Lawyers cast doubt on whether the women — who are among the most senior individuals yet to face indictment in the global probe into manipulation of the financial benchmark — will ever see a US courtroom, arguing France will be reluctant to extradite them.

Danielle Sindzingre and Muriel Bescond were indicted in a federal court in New York this week but neither is in the US and the Department of Justice would not say if it was seeking extradition.

“This is ultimately a big stand-off,” said Roger Burlingame, a former US federal prosecutor who now works at Kobre & Kim representing European-based clients under investigation by the US. “As long as they stay in France, they are not going to be extradited.”

Neither of the women responded to requests for comment through LinkedIn, and their lawyers could not be identified.

French courts in general have been loath to allow the long arm of US justice to reach its citizens. And earlier decisions by the French authorities and courts over the Libor-rigging scandal suggest they would look sceptically at US claims if the pair were to contest extradition.

A Paris appeals court refused earlier this year to extradite Stephane Esper, a former SocGen trader who was charged with benchmark-rigging offences by the UK’s Serious Fraud Office.

The court reasoned Mr Esper could not be extradited to the UK because benchmark-rigging was not an offence at the time in France.

While some banks cleared out swaths of traders and submitters in the wake of the scandal, SocGen still employs Ms Sindzingre and Ms Bescond. The bank has not been fined or charged by US authorities in connection with Libor rigging.

Ms Sindzingre was appointed the global co-head of fixed income, credit and currencies in 2015. According to her LinkedIn profile, she is based in London, and Ms Bescond’s profile says she is global head of short-term derivatives, based in Paris.

Robert Anello, partner at Grand Iason & Anello, said Ms Sindzingre’s London base could make a difference.

“Particularly since she isn’t a UK citizen, the chances of her getting extradited [to the US] are greater than the French extraditing one of their own,” he said. “The French laws will make it more difficult — though not necessarily impossible.”

Bruce Zagaris, a partner at Berliner, Corcoran & Rowe, said that if Ms Sindzingre was in the UK, she would be “well advised” to return to France.

He said the US authorities may well not request extradition in the first place if they did not think it would be granted. He added, however, that they may issue via Interpol a “red notice” for the individuals, which could restrict their ability to travel.

Mr Burlingame said: “The safe thing for them to assume is that there’ll be an arrest warrant waiting for them as soon as they leave France.”

So far, SocGen has been fined only by the European Commission for benchmark-rigging. Brussels landed the bank with a €445.9m penalty in 2013. In total, global banks have paid fines totalling $9bn to authorities around the world over the Libor scandal.

>>> Weekly Update

Weekly Market Update: Markets Stabilize on European Strength; Harvey Looms Over Energy

US stock markets commenced the week testing more than one month lows in most cases. The S&P found support just above the 100-day moving average on Tuesday. As Washington looked to put the controversy surrounding the President and his reaction to Charlottesville in the rear view mirror, rekindled hopes for genuine tax reform along with thin summer trading conditions were widely cited as fostering the turnaround. A host of late season retail earnings reports surpassed expectations which provided a boost to investor sentiment. The Russel 2000 led the way higher as investors placed bets small cap US centric businesses would get the most benefit from tax relief. For the week, the DJIA gained 0.7%, the S&P500 added 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.8%.

The greenback retreated further led by strength in the Euro. The economic data, Europe’s in particular, continued to signal building economic momentum. By Friday when neither Fed Chair Yellen nor ECB President Draghi directly addressed monetary policy at the Jackson Hole symposium, the Euro hit fresh one and half year highs above 1.1920. Gasoline prices moved up late in the week as it became clear Hurricane Harvey would make landfall in southern Texas and bring with it up to 30 inches of rain.

MONDAY, AUG 21
BHP.AU Reports FY17 underlying Net $6.73B v $7.3Be; Rev $38.3B v $38.3Be; to exit US onshore assets

TUESDAY, AUG 22
*(DE) GERMANY AUG ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: 86.7 V 85.2E; EXPECTATION SURVEY: 10.0 V 15.0E
(UK) AUG CBI INDUSTRIAL TRENDS TOTAL ORDERS: 13 V 8E
(US) AUG RICHMOND FED MANUFACTURING INDEX: 14 V 10E
CRM Reports Q2 $0.33 v $0.31e, Rev $2.56B v $2.51Be

WEDNESDAY, AUG 23RD
(FR) FRANCE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 55.8 V 54.5E (10th month of expansion)
(EU) ECB's Draghi: Research helps us decide whether a change in facts deserves a policy response or look through it - comments from Lindau
(DE) GERMANY AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 59.4 V 57.6E (33rd month of expansion)
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 57.4 V 56.3E (49th month of expansion)
WMT Partners with Google on voice shopping in a challenge to Amazon’s Alexa - Recode
*(US) JULY NEW HOME SALES: 571K V 610KE
(EU) EURO ZONE AUG ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -1.5 V -1.8E
(US) Association of American Railroads weekly rail traffic report for week ending Aug 19th: 554.0K carloads and intermodal units, +4.4% y/y (32nd straight week of gains)
(HK) According to Nomura, Macau typhoon to impact casino Aug rev by up to 700bps - financial press

THURSDAY, AUG 24TH
(FR) FRANCE AUG BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 109 V 108E ; MANUFACTURING CONFIDENCE: 111 V 108E
(UK) Q2 PRELIMINARY GDP Q/Q: 0.3% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 1.7% V 1.7%E
494.HK Reports H1 Net $101M v $72M y/y, adj Op $172M v $152N y/y, Rev $7.26B v $7.42B y/y
TIF Reports Q2 $0.92 v $0.88e, Rev $960M v $933Me
(US) JULY EXISTING HOME SALES: 5.44M V 5.55ME
WFM Amazon and Whole Foods announce acquisition to close this Monday; Prime Members to get discounts at Whole Foods

FRIDAY, AUG 25TH
(US) JULY PRELIMINARY DURABLE GOODS ORDERS: -6.8% V -6.0%E; DURABLES EX TRANSPORTATION: 0.5% V 0.4%E
(US) Fed Chair Yellen: core reforms boosted financial system; open to reviewing Volcker rule - comments from Jackson Hole; does not discuss monetary policy
(EU) ECB Draghi: Global recovery is firming up; does not comment on ECB policy directly or foreign exchange - comments from Jackson Hole
(US) NHC: Hurricane Harvey strengthens to a category 2 storm; dangerously approaching the Texas Coast

(ZeroHedge) The Complete Debt Ceiling Decision Tree: "An Alarmingly High Probabi

The Complete Debt Ceiling Decision Tree: "An Alarmingly High Probability Of A Very Bad Outcome"

For all the breathless newsflow over the past 7 days, the single most consequential event of last week was the sudden jump in debt ceiling/government shutdown odds following Donald Trump's confrontational Phoenix speech, which laid out a problematic dilemma: Trump's Mexican wall, or a government shutdown. While various financial pundits rushed to discount the odds of a worst case scenario, the market - in Treasury bills, if not so much equities - was spooked, sending the "pre-post default bill" spread to the widest on record...
... as October 5/12 Bill yields continued to blow out after various politicians were quoted with doomsday predictions, some suggesting the odds of a shutdown are as high as 75%.

The biggest concern as we head into the X-Date period of late September, early October is that the resolution of these problems, either the debt ceiling or the government shutdown, is not a simple linear decision tree, but is one where any momentary whim, or tweet, by Donald Trump can abort any compromise at a moment's notice. Or, as Deutsche Bank puts it in a Friday report looking at the Debt Ceiling Dynamics, "the current political backdrop is concerning" and as it adds, sarcastically, "a failure to raise the debt ceiling is a very bad outcome. And even a small probability of a very bad outcome is still a very bad outcome. Any kind of default would likely have far reaching negative ramifications for global financial markets and the US economy."

Still, as discussed previously, while the T-Bill market is clearly paying attention, equities and VIX have yet to respond: as DB's Dominic Konstam writes, "despite this tail risk and the apparent turbulence surrounding DC, markets remain comparatively unperturbed. Recent spikes in the VIX have proved short-lived although a little more elevated than before." Still, there remains the risk of a sudden reaction as the deadline approaches if default risks become more tangible.
Just how likely is a "tangible risk" scenario? As DB calculates, there are several possible paths forward.
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The most straight forward and positive for risk would be if leadership from both declared support for a clean raise. Where the path gets more complicated is if either party decides it will only support an increase if it is tied to a more partisan agenda item. Unfortunately we don’t see more than a 50/50 chance of even an attempt of a clean bill to raise the ceiling or suspend it. This is because the House Freedom Caucus (HFC) is on record against a clean bill. As early as May, Mark Meadows HFC Chairman said “at this point we believe that there need to be some structural reforms in any debt ceiling vote.”
While we disagree with Deutsche, and in light of the troubling dynamics between Trump and Congress, a 50% chance of a clean debt raise sounds ridiculously high, there are several other probabiltiies.
The tree diagram below gives Deutsche Bank's "very subjective view" on the probabilities associated with how a debt ceiling debate may evolve. Here is the full breakdown:


We start with the 50/50 chance of an attempt at a clean versus dirty raise. If it is clean it very much depends whether the Democrats will support a clean bill as we assume the Republicans will not have the votes without the HFC. We suspect there is a good chance that they balk, but even if we assume this is only a 25 percent chance, conditional on a clean bill attempt, this leaves a good chance of a bill raising the debt ceiling (adds 37 ½ percent probability to a debt ceiling crisis being avoided).
As a knock on implication, this could also lead to a new era of moderate Republican and Democrat reconciliation, although not necessarily. If the Democrats do insist on conditions then the clean bill attempt ends in a no deal probability.

This takes us to the dirty scenarios.

The smallest probability (20 percent) is again with the Democrats insisting on conditions that are accepted leading to a deal that adds another 10 percent probability of a deal.

The rest of the probability goes to either a deal with the HFC or a failure to come together. The latter obviously is no deal whereas the former should lead to a deal which may or may not include Trump’s wall.
In total, Konstam estimates that the probability of no deal - or a technical default of the United States - is a whopping 33%. As the biggest German bank redundantly notes, "We think this is an alarmingly high probability of a very bad outcome."
We conclude with some troubling parting words from Deutsche Bank:


Note that as in previous debt ceiling episodes there are possible fallbacks that would avoid default. There is the possibility of prioritization of payments, wherein Treasury would put principal and coupon payments on debt ahead of other payments, while still respecting the debt limit. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin told a House panel that he has “no intent on prioritizing,” but has not categorically ruled it out. Furthermore, while the Obama administration publicly maintained it was opposed to prioritizing the debt service, it came to light that Fed and Treasury officials had formalized a plan to do exactly that in 2011 if Congress and the White House hadn’t acted in time. There has also been in the past citation of the 14th Amendment, which, in Section 4, states “The validity of the public debt of the United States, authorized by law, including debts incurred for payment of pensions and bounties for services in suppressing insurrection or rebellion, shall not be questioned.” This leaves open the possibility that the President might unilaterally decide to raise the debt ceiling by bypassing Congress and effectively declaring the debt ceiling unconstitutional. This was debated in both 2011 and 2013, with President Obama expressing concern about the damage resulting from such unilateral action, regardless of constitutionality.
That said, we doubt Trump would share Obama's concerns about the optics of any executive-level action, "regardless of constitutionality."

CoinTelegraph : Investors Pull Billions from Stocks As New Bitcoin, Crypto Optio

The withdrawal of funds from stocks and precious metals has coincided with the massive price increase of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies. It seems that investors have realized that Bitcoin is a more stable ‘store of value’ investmentthan gold.
CNBC has reported that the stock market has seen the largest withdrawal rate since 2004, with more than $30 bln being taken out of the markets over the past 10 weeks. The major withdrawal also included a huge abandoning of precious metals.
Precious metals at loss
Private client allocation to precious metals has seen a massive reduction, with portfolios holding 10 percent in 2013 being reduced to below two percent in recent weeks.
(source: BofA Merrill Lynch Global Investment Strategy, EPFR Global)
The precious metals investment decline has coincided with a removal of funds from the stock market overall, with investors choosing to pull back from the market, though the market continues to post gains. Concerns about current market levels and monetization policies may be fueling to flight.
Crypto-investment opportunities
Blockchain technology is producing new investment opportunities. Companies like LAToken and MyBit have developed methods for tokenizing investments, making it possible for large-scale investments to be purchased by smaller scale investors.
The decentralized platform of these companies makes it possible for investors to participate without the higher fees associated with traditional markets. LAToken has even produced a system where shares of Apple, Amazon and other blue chip stocks can be ‘tokenized’ and purchased in part by investors. CEO of LA Token Valentin Preobrazhenskiy says:
“We build a NASDAQ on Blockchain with a wider range of tradable assets, blurring the boundaries between crypto- and real economies, and offering our clients a dramatic reduction of listing costs, settlement time, and transaction costs.”
Whether the tokenized asset market is viable or not remains to be seen, but the flight of investors from stocks and precious metals has pressed the need for new and innovative vehicles for investors.

TheVerge : A sketchy Satoshi has popped up to promote his new blockchain

A sketchy Satoshi has popped up to promote his new blockchain
There’s no proof, but lots of bizarre claims

Last night, The Verge and at least three other outlets received an email from someone claiming to be Satoshi Nakamoto, the mysterious inventor of bitcoin. The email we received was brief and to the point: “I met with the SEC yesterday. I am ready to talk.”
The individual declined to give his legal name, but said recent leaks had forced him to speak to the press, even as he intended to remain anonymous. At the same time, he claimed that various agencies in the government, including the SEC, IRS, and FBI were aware of his true identity. “The government knows who I am, and that’s the way it should be,” he said in a call with The Verge. “The public doesn’t know, and I’m going to have it remain that way.”
But in the emails and conversations that followed, it became clear that the would-be Satoshi’s primary purpose was to promote a new blockchain detailed at CoinProject.org — and significant doubts emerged about whether he was in fact Bitcoin’s mysterious creator, or simply a scammer hoping to draw attention to a speculative cryptocurrency.

While the man offered significant detail on Coin, he was unable to provide the kind of evidence that would be necessary to definitively prove his identity as Satoshi. He declined to sign a message with a PGP key that is linked to Satoshi’s online persona, did not demonstrate access to old email addresses (which, to be fair, have largely been compromised), and most importantly, would not move bitcoins that are known to belong to the real Satoshi. He claimed that, on leaving the project in 2010, he had deleted all the private keys linked to Satoshi, hoping to destroy any evidence of his role in Bitcoin’s origin. As a result, it was impossible to present any cryptographic proof of his identity.
The evidence he did present was extensive, but every piece of it was already available from previous sources. In one email, he sent a copy of the two earliest known instances of the bitcoin protocol, alpha versions 0.1.0 and 0.1.3, both of which are believed to have been coded and compiled by Satoshi himself. But those versions were shared widely by Nakamoto at the time of release, and are already freely available from the Satoshi Nakamoto Institute.

This ostensible Satoshi also presented screenshots of emails between him and cryptographer Wei Dai, who is often named as the creator of a precursor to modern cryptocurrency. The emails were dated to August 2008, showing Satoshi writing from his anonymousspeech.comaccount to talk cryptocurrency protocols with Dai during a time when the Bitcoin protocol was still in active development. But like the alpha versions, those emails are already publicly available. They were published in a blog post in 2014, as part of a larger argument about whether cryptographer Nick Szabo was the true Satoshi.
The man said he would reveal further proof of his identity today, along with further details on the new blockchain project. However, he abruptly cut off communication, and did not respond to further emails or calls.

Other claims made by this “Satoshi” have also proven hard to pin down. In one email, he claimed prominent Bitcoin investor Tim Draper had met with the SEC as part of the process. Reached by The Verge, Draper said simply, “he is a fake.” In a later tweet, Draper acknowledged he had been contacted by “a Satoshi fake.”
“He was very convincing and wasted a lot of my time,” Draper wrote. “Could have been much worse.”
It would not be the first time a Satoshi claim has fallen through. In 2014, Newsweekidentified model-train enthusiast Dorian Nakamoto as the Bitcoin creator in a widely disputed article that spurred a lawsuit from Dorian himself. In 2015, Craig Wright also made a contested claim to have invented Bitcoin. It later became clear that he had made a multi-million dollar deal with a Canadian peer-to-peer payment startup premised on his ability to prove that he was the inventor of Bitcoin.
This latest iteration of Satoshi-spotting comes at a time when ICO madness has reached a fever pitch. In 2014, it was undesirable, even perceived as potentially dangerous, to be identified as Bitcoin’s creator. Since late 2015, it has been seen as potentially quite lucrative. With no end in sight for the cryptocurrency hype, there’s a good chance we’ll continue to see more Satoshis emerge.