>>> Weekend Papers Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-On Saturday, at least seven explosions were heard in Caracas, Venezuela. These coincided with reports of aircraft overhead and significant power outages in various areas. The Venezuelan government attributed these events to the United States, accusing it of targeting civilian and military sites while denouncing what it termed Washington's "military aggression." In response, authorities announced a "state of external disturbance" and urged national mobilization against this perceived “imperialist attack.” Thes incident unfolds amidst increased US pressure on Nicolas Maduro's regime, although the Trump administration has not confirmed any military involvement. The US has imposed new sanctions aimed at limiting Maduro's power and has declared a "total blockade" on oil tankers involved in US-sanctioned operations with Venezuela. President Trump has not excluded the possibility of a military ground operation to combat Venezuela's alleged drug trafficking and to compel Maduro to resign.
-Electric vehicle (EV) sales are expected to experience their slowest growth since the pandemic, with projections indicating a 13% increase to 24 million units in 2026, down from last year's estimated 22% rise. Key factors influencing this slowdown include dwindling demand in China, a decline in European growth, and a contraction in the US market, according to Benchmark Mineral Intelligence. Regulatory changes, such as the Trump administration's removal of tax incentives for EVs and the EU's less stringent approach to a petrol car ban originally set for 2035, alongside the easing of rapid growth in China, are expected to impact the industry's prospects negatively. Industry executives like Mark Wakefield of AlixPartners acknowledge these challenges, particularly the headwinds from China, which has traditionally driven growth, and anticipate further regulatory softening in Europe.
-Artificial intelligence, cryptocurrency speculation, and increasing credit in private markets suggest the US is facing significant fiscal and financial challenges, prompting concerns about the potential for a crash reminiscent of 1929. That’s the subject of the FT ‘Weekend Essay’. The complexity of identifying market bubbles is highlighted by Alan Greenspan's assertion that such bubbles are often recognizable only in hindsight, indicating a reluctance to acknowledge central bankers' role in maintaining financial stability.
-India's richest man, Mukesh Ambani, is intensifying competition against Coca-Cola and Pepsi in the fizzy drinks sector by promoting Campa Cola, a 50-year-old brand that is experiencing a revival amidst nationalist sentiment. Reliance Industries, Ambani's conglomerate, has initiated a price war, launching Campa Cola at Rs10, significantly lower than its competitors' prices, successfully increasing its market share from 2% in 2024 to 7% currently, as per GlobalData. The company aims to capture 25% of the market within the next three years, focusing on expanding distribution and enhancing production capacity to position Campa Cola as a national brand amidst ongoing tensions between India and the U.S. This strategy has compelled Coca-Cola and Pepsi to drop their prices in reaction to Campa Cola's growing presence.
-The gold price is projected to continue its historic rally, reaching $4,610 per troy ounce by the end of 2026, following a 64% increase in 2025. Analysts attribute this growth to persistent factors such as demand from emerging market central banks and investor interest in gold as a safe haven. The most optimistic forecast suggests a price of $5,400 per troy ounce, reflecting a 25% increase, with some analysts indicating that previous estimates have been overly cautious. They emphasize that investors are increasingly turning to gold as a hedge against the weakening US dollar.
-The number of influencers applying for the O-1B visa, designated for “exceptional” creatives, has surged post-Covid-19 pandemic, according to immigration attorneys and talent managers. Some lawyers report that influencers now represent over half their clientele, as follower counts and likes are easier metrics to demonstrate “exceptional ability.” The issuance of O-1 visas, which includes the O-1B for arts and O-1A for other remarkable abilities, rose over 50% from 2014 to 2024, compared to a 10% increase in total non-immigrant visas issued.
-The Trump administration's funding cuts to US universities and research programs are negatively impacting Europe's scientific community, according to Maria Leptin, president of the European Research Council. Although this situation has motivated more American researchers to seek European funding, Leptin emphasized that collaborations and shared insights between US and European scientists are critical. The ERC is responding by launching a new grant under its "Choose Europe" strategy to attract leading researchers with more generous funding options.
-Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has restructured Ukraine's security leadership by appointing military intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov as head of the presidential office and nominating Mykhailo Fedorov as the new defense minister. This reshuffle follows a corruption scandal that led to the previous head's dismissal. Zelensky emphasized the need for internal changes to strengthen Ukraine amidst ongoing negotiations for security guarantees with Western allies and efforts to end the war with Russia. Budanov, maintaining communications with Moscow during the conflict, expressed commitment to addressing Ukraine's strategic security needs.
-A fire at the Le Constellation bar in Crans-Montana during New Year celebrations resulted in 40 fatalities and 119 injuries, reportedly caused by sparklers placed too close to the ceiling. Swiss prosecutor Beatrice Pilloud indicated that the investigation is focusing on these sparklers due to evidence from witness interviews and video footage. Investigators are also examining the potential presence of foam on the ceiling, which may have exacerbated the fire. Authorities aim to determine if any individuals bear criminal responsibility, with potential charges including arson and homicide by negligence. The process of identifying victims could take several days, with many injured reported in critical condition.
-The world’s leading driverless car companies, Waymo and Baidu, plan to launch robotaxis in London by 2026, as the city becomes a focal point for US-China competition in artificial intelligence. Waymo has initiated road tests with autonomous Jaguar models, while Baidu is set to introduce its RT6 cars after partnering with Lyft and Uber. The UK government's approval for commercial trials of driverless vehicles has accelerated these launches. Experts suggest this positions the UK as a regulatory leader in autonomous technology, contrasting with the more unregulated environments of Silicon Valley and Beijing.
-Donald Trump has issued a warning to Iran regarding the ongoing protests, stating that the US will intervene if the regime violently suppresses demonstrators. His message on Truth Social expressed readiness for action if Iran resorts to killing peaceful protesters, amidst widespread unrest fueled by economic issues like inflation. Reportedly, there have been fatalities and numerous arrests as protests escalate, with public displays of dissent, including funerals for demonstrators where anti-regime slogans were chanted. Protests continued across various cities on Friday night.
NEW YORK TIMES
-President Trump announced that the US conducted a significant military operation against Venezuela, resulting in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his relocation out of the country. This event marks the peak of a prolonged effort by the Trump administration to remove Maduro from power. Trump communicated this information via his social media platform, Truth Social, describing the operation as executed “in conjunction with US law enforcement.” Concurrently, Venezuelan government officials alleged that the U.S. launched military strikes in Caracas and other regions, with reports of substantial explosions occurring at a military base in the capital.
-President Trump's capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro follows a significant U.S. military deployment of approximately 15,000 troops to the Caribbean, deemed a “massive armada.” This move stemmed from a directive signed by Trump aimed at using military force against Latin American drug cartels labeled as terrorist organizations, leading to 35 lethal strikes on narcotics-carrying boats, resulting in over 100 deaths. Legal experts raised concerns regarding the strikes' legality, as Congress had not authorized them nor declared war on Venezuela. The troop increase aimed to oust Maduro, coinciding with accusations from Venezuela of US military attacks in Caracas and beyond.
-The New Year's fire at the Constellation bar in Crans-Montana, a Swiss Alpine resort, occurred in the crowded basement where young revelers, including 20-year-old Noa Bersier, were present. As he played billiards, the scene turned chaotic when a fire broke out from the ceiling, likely ignited by feux de Bengale, small fireworks that ignited the ceiling insulation. Bersier, who experienced severe burns while escaping, described the sensation of feeling his hands decompose. The tragedy resulted in 40 fatalities and numerous critical injuries, with victims being transported to hospitals across Switzerland, France, and Italy. Authorities deemed this incident one of the deadliest fires in Swiss history.
-During the first year of President Trump's second administration, Congress faced significant challenges regarding its authority, as Republican leaders often refrained from challenging a president who acted with little regard for legislative input. Trump made unilateral decisions, including altering the name of the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts, withholding funds from congressional initiatives, claiming broad tariff powers meant for Congress, and conducting military operations without congressional authorization. As midterm elections approach, Congress is at a crossroads, needing to decide whether to reclaim its powers or accept an ongoing diminished status. Representative Don Bacon voiced concerns that more assertive opposition from the Republican House could lead to improved policies, particularly regarding tariffs and international issues like Ukraine.
-The Israeli government accused New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani of antisemitism after he canceled two executive orders from his predecessor that barred city agencies from boycotting Israel and classified criticism of Israel as antisemitic. The accusation came via social media by Israel's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The Ministry criticized Mamdani's actions, stating, “He scraps the IHRA definition of antisemitism and lifts restrictions on boycotting Israel,” and described them as "antisemitic gasoline on an open fire." Israel's consul general in New York, Ofir Akunis, claims that Mamdani's decisions could threaten the safety of Jewish communities and increase violent antisemitic attacks in the city.
-Mayor Zohran Mamdani's electoral success was bolstered by a grassroots volunteer campaign involving 100,000 individuals who engaged with voters through door-to-door efforts and calls. He has announced the formation of an Office of Mass Engagement aimed at increasing public participation in government decisions, particularly among marginalized communities. The office will be led by Tascha Van Auken, Mr. Mamdani's campaign field director and a former staff member on Barack Obama’s 2008 campaign. This new initiative will reorganize and combine several existing city agencies to enhance government responsiveness, with Mr. Mamdani emphasizing the necessity of listening to the needs of working New Yorkers.
-In 2000, a pivotal study declared glyphosate, the main ingredient in Roundup, to be safe for human health despite its alleged link to cancer. Recently, this study was retracted, causing a crisis regarding glyphosate's safety, which is vital to American agriculture, being extensively used on crops including soybeans and corn. The Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) continues to deem glyphosate safe, yet faces a 2026 deadline to reassess its safety following lawsuits from environmental and advocacy groups, compounded by pressures from health movements, particularly those linked to Robert F. Kennedy Jr. who has previous legal ties to Monsanto.
-Parts of the San Francisco Bay Area experienced flooding due to high tides and a new storm impacting California, which has been under a series of storms since mid-December. This weekend, the storm is forecasted to deliver heavy rain and winds statewide, raising alarm over potential landslides in Southern California where the ground remains saturated from prior storms.
NEW YORK POST
-Venezuela has accused the United States of carrying out airstrikes on military and civilian sites near Caracas following multiple explosions that were reported around 2 AM local time on January 3, 2026. These events occur amidst escalating tensions between Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro and the US. According to CBS News, President Trump ordered the strikes, although neither he nor Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has commented on the situation. The explosions, which affected sites in Miranda, Aragua, and La Guiera, caused significant fire and smoke and led to power outages in the region.
-The owner of Saks Fifth Avenue, Neiman Marcus, and Bergdorf Goodman is seeking over $1B in rescue financing amid the resignation of CEO Marc Metrick. The luxury retailer faces significant debts, including a $100M interest payment due to bondholders. If current discussions with investors fail, the company may resort to debtor-in-possession financing under Chapter 11. The urgency escalated after Saks missed an interest payment on a $2.7B loan from last year's acquisition of Neiman Marcus. The firm has reportedly secured a 30-day grace period for the payment.

WWD : Birkenstock, Hoka, Salomon and More Footwear Companies Opening New Stores

Birkenstock, Hoka, Salomon and More Footwear Companies Opening New Stores in 2026
Other openings are slated to come from Boot Barn, Clarks and Tecovas.

As 2026 kicks off, there are no shortage of footwear retailers and brands that are heading into the new year with ambitious store expansion plans.

From monobranded locations to sporting goods retailers, here are some of the store openings slated for 2026.

Academy Sports + Outdoors
On the company’s third quarter 2025 conference call in December, Academy Sports + Outdoors chief executive officer Steve Lawrence told analysts that the company plans to open up an additional 20 to 25 stores in 2026 with a focus on opening roughly 80 percent of the new stores in legacy and existing markets and 20 percent in newer markets. The CEO noted that as in the past, the company tends to open in new markets in the first part of the year and legacy and existing are more back half weighted.

Birkenstock
Oliver Reichert, the German footwear firm’s chief executive officer, told analysts during its fourth quarter conference call last month that Birkenstock plans to open about 40 new stores in 2026. This puts the company on track to reach its 150 store target ahead of schedule. “This will allow us to capture more in personal shopping demand and younger shoppers within our own D2C business and allows us to showcase the full range of our collection,” Reichert said.

Boot Barn
In October, Boot Barn chief executive officer John Hazen told analysts during the company’s second quarter 2026 earnings call that the company believes it can operate 1,200 stores across the United States, an increase from its prior estimate of 900, which is more than double its current footprint. As of Oct. 29, 2025, Boot Barn said it would end the fiscal year with 70 new stores opened. And as the company looks towards fiscal 2027, the pipeline includes 20 projected openings in the first quarter, which will begin in April this year.

Clarks Cloudsteppers
After opening its first Cloudsteppers concept store in the U.S. inside the La Palmera Mall in Corpus Christi, Texas last month, Clarks is moving ahead with the project’s expansion. In an interview with FN in December, Peter Quirke, Clarks vice president of retail in the Americas, said that the company has already signed three leases for new Cloudsteppers stores to open in the first quarter of 2026 in the U.S. “We have the utmost confidence that what we’re doing is going to work,” Quirke noted. “So, we’re aiming to open another five in the back half of 2026, and we want to end ‘26 with a dozen locations. Still, we’re being selective in where we’re going to open, but we firmly believe in the success of this concept.”

Hoka
In December, Empire State Realty Trust revealed that Hoka will take over the 4,148-square-foot space at 91 N. 6th Street in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn, N.Y. in 2026. Details of when the store will open to the public were not disclosed. In July, Stefano Caroti, president and chief executive officer of Hoka parent Deckers Brands, told analysts that while Hoka still has a “very small [retail] footprint,” the brand now has 48 owned and operated stores globally. And following Hoka flagship openings in London and Paris, Caroti teased new stores coming to Berlin and Milan, yet no concrete timeline was announced on the call.

Salomon
The French mountain sports company noted in November that it will “continue to focus on epicenters” in 2026 and beyond, including New York, Los Angeles, Miami and San Francisco. So far, Salomon expects we to open seven to ten new stores in the U.S. in 2026. In EMEA, the brand is planning other locations in Spain, Germany and several key U.K. cities.

Saucony
According to Chris Hufnagel, president and chief executive officer of Saucony parent Wolverine Worldwide, the running brand is slated to open a host of new stores more broadly in China with its partner. In Europe, the running brand landed in Covent Garden in June with its first London store. And looking ahead, Saucony plans to expand its key city strategy to Paris with the opening of its next “pioneer store” in the City of Light in 2026.

Shoe Station
Shoe Station parent company Shoe Carnival Inc. is set to significantly expand the banner, which the company acquired in 2021 for $67 million, as it ramps up its rebanner strategy in 2026. The company said in November that it is on track to operate 215 Shoe Station stores by back-to-school 2026, representing 51 percent of the fleet. (There were 144 Shoe Station stores as of Nov. 20, 2025.) The company also noted that it expects well over 90 percent of its fleet to operate as Shoe Station before the end of fiscal 2028, with remaining locations evaluated for rebannering, outlet repositioning, or closure.

Tecovas
In December, Empire State Realty Trust revealed that Tecovas will take over the 4,174-square-foot space at 89 N. 6th Street in the Williamsburg neighborhood of Brooklyn, N.Y. in 2026. Details of when the store will open to the public were not disclosed. When reached by FN, a representative for Tecovas noted that since opening the doors to its SoHo store last fall, the company has “seen a sustained interest” in Western wear from tourists and local New Yorkers alike. “We are looking forward to expanding Tecovas’ presence with this Williamsburg location and bringing more boots to the New York City area,” the rep said.

WWD : Saks Global Said Weighing Options as Richard Baker Takes the Reins

Saks Global Said Weighing Options as Richard Baker Takes the Reins
As CEO Marc Metrick exits, sources said the company is looking at several alternatives, including a bailout from Amazon and a deal with Authentic amid growing speculation about a possible bankruptcy.

As Richard Baker takes full management control of Saks Global, the real estate investor is said to be exploring several avenues to alleviate the luxury retailer’s severe financial squeeze — and perhaps save the company.

Baker, currently executive chairman, took the reins as chief executive officer on Friday following the exit of Marc Metrick, who ended a 30-year run at the company and has, over the past year, faced immense backlash and criticism from vendors for Saks Global’s failure to pay its bills.

Now it’s solely Baker’s problem to figure out a way to salvage Saks Global, the group he created last year by buying Neiman Marcus Group for $2.7 billion. Sources said he’s exploring several paths forward, including:
  • A bailout from Amazon, which has long been keen to really break into luxury retailing and invested in Saks Global’s deal to buy Neiman’s. Baker is said to have met recently in Paris with Jeff Bezos, who is still executive chairman of Amazon and has become steadily more interested in fashion following his engagement and marriage to Lauren Sanchez.
  • Authentic Brands Group, which already owns Barneys New York, could also step in in some capacity. The brand management company is said by some to already control 51 percent of Saks Global’s intellectual property, which the sources claim is a stake that would grow to 77 percent if the retailer filed bankruptcy. (A person close to Saks Global disputed this and said the retailer owns its IP and that its joint venture with Authentic, dubbed Authentic Luxury Group, only has a licensing agreement to use the luxury retail brands within Saks Global.) Authentic would not be directly impacted by a bankruptcy as the retailer’s IP is said to sit in a “bankruptcy remote” vehicle.
  • There is also said to be some other path forward that Baker is accessing that could not be learned at press time, but could be the long-rumored bankruptcy filing.

Saks Global declined to comment beyond the statement revealing Metrick’s departure while Authentic declined comment and an Amazon spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a query.

The specter of bankruptcy has hovered around the company since before it defied expectations and acquired the relatively healthy Neiman’s even as Saks failed to pay its own vendors.

Now the possibility of a bankruptcy filing has been brought to the fore in a new way. Saks Global is said to have missed a more than $100 million interest payment on Dec. 30, kicking off a 30-day grace period that it can use to work out some financial solution. Bondholders bought $2.2 billion in debt to fuel the Neiman’s acquisition in December 2024 and then put in another $600 million in August. But the group’s prospects have steadily dimmed.

The most protected of the retailer’s various bonds traded recently at 37 cents on the dollar as investors gauged the likelihood that they’d get the principal back when the debt matures in December 2029.

Saks Global is also said to once again not be paying vendors, owing them an estimated $500 million to $800 million.

Whatever comes next for Saks Global, sources expect it to happen within the next 30 days.

For Metrick, the change has already happened.

The company said the CEO transition “reflects Mr. Metrick’s desire to pursue new opportunities.”

It’s been a rough run for Metrick, who after a career of thinking big got the chance to remake luxury department store retailing by combining Saks Fifth Avenue and Neiman Marcus, while also setting up a Saks shop on Amazon.

On LinkedIn, Metrick said he joined the Saks Executive Training Program right out of college in 1995 and planned to stay just two years before going to business school and then investment banking.

What he found at the company and in luxury retailing was “a family, a large piece of my being.”

“I don’t know adulthood without Saks,” Metrick said. “I’ve lost parents, grandparents, I’ve gotten married, become a father, lost 120 pounds, gotten sober, and seen a ton of the world since I ‘met Saks.’”

Metrick said it would be the people he missed most at Saks Global and acknowledged the recent difficulties, which had him wrestling with vendors who were owed money and racing to reset the business for a new consumer landscape.

“The last few years have been challenging, but I will look back with pride on everything the team accomplished,” he said. “This is a hard business, even when times are good, but it is when times are tough that you really learn about your colleagues. We’ve worked through the tragedy of 9/11, the uncertainty of the 2008 financial crisis and of course the scary and devastating impact of the COVID[-19] pandemic. Through all of those moments, I know I’ve given the company my everything and I also know, it gave me everything back.”

While bringing Neiman’s and Saks together let the retailer cut hundreds of millions of dollars in costs, the combined company never found its footing financially, failing to make good immediately on its past-due bills to vendors and struggling to keep the sales floor stocked even during the key holiday season.

Saks Global has been working on options to bring more cash into the business, shopping around a 49 percent stake in Bergdorf Goodman and recently rushing through sale leasebacks of Neiman Marcus stores in Beverly Hills and San Francisco.

But the crossroads have been reached and Baker — both one of the industry’s most controversial and creative dealmakers who has made millions out of the deals he has put together — is at the helm of the company as it faces a key next step.

The company and its management presented the CEO switch as a much more straightforward change in leadership.

“Baker will work closely with the company’s management team to advance Saks Global’s transformation while delivering exceptional products, elevated experiences and highly personalized service to meet consumer demand for luxury retail,” the company said.

Baker added: “I look forward to continuing to work with our highly experienced management team, valued partners and other stakeholders to secure a strong and stable future for our company. Across Saks Global, with our deep industry expertise, well-established relationships within the luxury sector, and talented employees, we will strengthen our position so that we can capitalize on the many opportunities we see for our company in the luxury market.

“Marc has been a valued leader at Saks for many years, helping to drive significant transformation and growth while solidifying the company’s enduring position in luxury,” Baker said. “We thank Marc for his leadership and dedication and wish him continued success in his next chapter.”

What the statement did not address was Saks Global’s missed interest payment — or potential financing.

Saks Global certainly has well established relationships in fashion, but many of those relationships are in tatters now and would have to be rebuilt by the next iteration of the company, which still has 70 full-line luxury stores, off-price locations and five distinct e-commerce experiences.

The Information : What We Got Right (and Wrong) in Our Predictions for 2025

What We Got Right (and Wrong) in Our Predictions for 2025
We predicted a bunch of big tech deals and other events for last year. Some happened. Most didn’t.

What’s that smell? It’s the whiff of humble pie being eaten by The Information’s prognosticators.
A year ago, we made a series of predictions about tech deals that would get done, executives who would leave their companies and other events that we thought might happen in 2025. Many of those predictions did not come to pass. In our defense, when you have a policy of making bold and specific predictions, as we do, strikeouts are a lot more common than home runs. Thankfully, there were a couple of home runs among our predictions too.
Here’s how we graded last year’s predictions. Tell us in the comments if you think we were too easy or harsh in our self-assessments.

What we predicted: Amazon Will Buy Lyft
What happened: A deal between the two companies seemed to make sense: Lyft is a distant No. 2 in traditional ride-hailing to Uber, which makes a deep-pocketed partner like Amazon appealing. Despite its also-ran status, Lyft still has enough scale to help Amazon bring its autonomous vehicle taxi service, Zoox, to the masses. Oh, and Lyft’s CEO David Risher is a former longtime Amazon executive. But for now, Lyft and Amazon are on their own separate paths.—Nick Wingfield
Grade: F

What we predicted: Elon Musk Will Try to Buy TikTok
What happened: There was also a logic to this prediction. President Donald Trump was eager to find American investors to buy TikTok from its Chinese parent ByteDance to avert a shutdown of the app in the U.S. due to a law passed by Congress. Musk at the time was a close ally of Trump’s and already had a stake in social media through his ownership of X. But Musk in February said publicly that he wasn’t interested in buying TikTok. And he wasn’t on the broader list of investors in a new U.S.-based TikTok entity that the app’s management shared with its employees last month.—N.W.
Grade: F

What we predicted: Nvidia Will Make Several Significant Acquisitions
What happened: The AI chip giant announced one bona fide blockbuster deal in 2025, although it was not a traditional acquisition: its $20 billion agreement in December to hire most of the staff of the chip startup Groq and pay for a nonexclusive license to Groq’s technology. It struck a similar deal with the networking startup Enfabrica a few months earlier, but that agreement was much smaller at around $900 million. Nvidia may have a more sizable deal in the works: Earlier this week, Calcalist, an Israeli financial publication, reported that Nvidia is in advanced talks to buy an Israeli AI startup, AI21 Labs, for as much as $3 billion. If that deal happens, it will be in 2026.—N.W.
Grade: B+

What we predicted: Microsoft Will Do a Deal With Anthropic
What happened: We nailed this one. We posited that Microsoft and Anthropic would cozy up as the former company sought to lessen its dependence on OpenAI, still its most important AI partner. Sure enough, in November, the companies announced a strategic partnership through which Anthropic committed to spending $30 billion to buy computing capacity from Microsoft’s Azure cloud service. Microsoft also pledged to invest up to $5 billion in Anthropic, and Anthropic made its Claude AI models more broadly available to Microsoft customers as part of the agreement.—N.W.
Grade: A

What we predicted: Amazon Will Launch Its Own Version of Ozempic
What happened: We were wrong. Amazon didn’t launch its own version of a GLP-1, the category of weight loss drugs that includes Ozempic and Wegovy, in 2025. It did, however, expand its pharmacy business in other ways, including by launching same-day medication delivery in more U.S. cities and adding medication kiosks to One Medical offices. The wait for an “Amazon Basics” version of GLP-1 drugs continues.—Theo Wayt
Grade: F

What we predicted: Telegram Will Launch a Stablecoin
What happened: Didn’t happen. The Dubai-based messaging app is popular among crypto traders and users, and we predicted that the allure of launching its own stablecoin would be irresistible for Telegram. Instead, the first wave of noncrypto firms issuing stablecoins turned out to be payment and fintech related firms, such as Western Union, Klarna and SoFi. Social media and communications apps could join that crowd, but they haven’t yet.—Yueqi Yang
Grade: F

What we predicted: An AI Agent Will Cause Chaos for a Blue-Chip Company
What happened: We were pretty close. In early December, The Information reported that a chatbot launched by the retailer Gap Inc. to field product-related questions went off the rails, discussing a bunch of questions outside its purview including about sex toys and Nazi Germany. The chatbot was powered by enterprise AI startup Sierra, cofounded by former Salesforce co-CEO Bret Taylor.
Sierra said the episode was caused by a “bad actor” trying to “jailbreak over a dozen of our customers’ AI agents.” The company said its abuse detection systems caught all but the Gap one, although the problem was fixed. As we noted at the time, it wasn’t the only such embarrassment. In July, Elon Musk’s xAI had to apologize after its Grok chatbot praised Adolf Hitler in a series of X posts.—Martin Peers
Grade: A

What we predicted: Marc Lore’s Wonder Will Acquire FreshDirect or Gopuff
What happened: Wonder didn’t acquire FreshDirect, Gopuff or another grocery business in 2025. It made two other acquisitions though: Tastemade, a media business, and Spyce, the robotics company that manufactures Sweetgreen’s automated salad-making machines.—Ann Gehan
Grade: F

What we predicted: Tim Cook Will Extend His Apple Tenure for Another Half-Decade
What happened: It’s hard to say definitively whether Apple’s CEO has committed to remain at Apple for another five years, but it seems unlikely. Apple’s most senior executives are at-will employees, without employment contracts, the company says in its filings with regulators. If Cook had made an explicit promise to the company’s board to stay at the company through a particular date, there’s a good chance Apple would have disclosed such a detail.
There’s also been considerable buzz lately about Apple stepping up its CEO succession planning, as we and others have reported. Nothing appears to be imminent on that front, but five years is a long time in a tech industry moving very quickly.—N.W.
Grade: F

What we predicted: College Athletes Will Become University Employees
What happened: We were premature. Alabama football players, Duke basketball stars and other college athletes didn’t start earning wages from their schools in 2025. It may be a question of when, not if, that happens. Last month, a bill backed by the NCAA and the U.S. Olympic and Paralympic Committee hit a wall in Congress; it would prevent college athletes from being classified as employees.
Another part of our prediction did come to pass though—namely, that the flood of name, image and likeness dollars into colleges athletes’ pockets would prompt some of them to choose college over the pros. Just last week, on Christmas Eve, Baylor University announced it signed seven-foot Nigerian center James Nnaji, who was a second-round draft pick for the NBA’s Detroit Pistons in 2023. Colorado College this week added a former minor league professional hockey player to its roster. Both developments are a sign that, for some athletes, playing college sports and landing blockbuster sponsorships is starting to look like a more appealing financial bet than grunting it out in minor leagues or sitting on pro benches.—Sara Germano
Grade: C

What we predicted: A Buyout Wave Will Hit Consumer Companies
What happened: None of the direct-to-consumer brands that we named in this prediction as likely buyout candidates—such as ThredUp and Allbirds—ended up being taken over by private equity firms in 2025. There were, however, some notable deals that weren’t that far off from the ones we predicted. For example, Rent The Runway’s longtime lender and other investors took control of 86% of the company’s shares in August and restructured its debt obligations. But Rent the Runway remains a publicly-traded company. Meanwhile, Grove Collaborative conducted a strategic review in 2025 after one of their shareholders pushed for it, but a buyer hasn’t yet materialized for the business.—Ann Gehan
Grade: C

What we predicted: AI Chatbot Companies Will Face Hundreds of Lawsuits
What happened: We were way off. Chatbot companies have faced lawsuits, to be sure, but most likely in the dozens, not the hundreds. Plaintiffs filed seven lawsuits against OpenAI in November alone alleging that the company’s ChatGPT pushed their family members into delusional conditions that drove some people to kill themselves. Just a month ago, the New York Times sued Perplexity for copyright infringement, adding to a suit the Times filed against OpenAI a couple of years ago. Amazon and the Chicago Tribune also sued Perplexity in recent months, while Reddit sued the firm in October. Other similar lawsuits in 2025 included Advanced Local Media suing Cohere in June. The lawsuits are coming, just not that many.—Martin Peers
Grade: C

What we predicted: Cisco CEO Chuck Robbins Will Leave
What happened: We whiffed badly on this one. Not only is Robbins still running Cisco, but the networking giant’s business performed well in 2025 thanks to the AI boom. The company’s stock hit an all-time high in December and closed the year up nearly 31%.—N.W.
Grade: F

What we predicted: Warner Bros. Discovery Will Rebrand Max
What happened: In July, Warner Bros. Discovery did indeed change Max’s name to HBO Max, which is what an earlier version of the service was called. The rechristening was just one episode within a much bigger drama involving the beleaguered company’s future, which reached new heights in December when Netflix and David Ellison’s Paramount made competing acquisition offers.—Abram Brown
Grade: A

What we predicted: OpenAI’s Chief Operating Officer, Brad Lightcap, Will Depart
What happened: The bottom line is that Lightcap, as of this writing, is still at OpenAI. However, leadership changes continued to chip away at his influence at the company. (Earlier such changes are what prompted our prediction.) In May, OpenAI hired then-Instacart CEO Fidji Simo to become the CEO of Applications. That role could have been a natural fit for Lightcap, who was running OpenAI’s day-to-day business operations at the time. Now, Lightcap reports to Simo, placing him a step further away from CEO Sam Altman.—Stephanie Palazzolo
Grade: F

What we predicted: Conservative-Favorite Industries Will Be Funding Hot Spots
What happened: We were right on the money in predicting defense tech and crypto would both get big investment bumps in the Trump era. Global venture capital investments in defense tech startups surged to $59 billion for the 12 months ended Sept. 30, 2025, compared to $25.2 billion for the comparable period in 2024, PitchBook estimates. Investments in stablecoins jumped too, buoyed by the Trump administration’s crypto-friendly policies, including his signing of the GENIUS Act in July, which provided the first regulatory framework for the industry. Circle Internet Group, the stablecoin issuer, pulled off a spectacular IPO in 2025 as well, though some crypto stocks and token prices cooled considerably in the latter half of the year.
There were fewer obvious signs of an investment bonanza in other startup categories on our list of potential beneficiaries. Funding in ed tech startups, for example, was flat through the end of November compared to the full year of 2024, according to CrunchBase. And there is sparse data on a funding boom for longevity startups. One exception was NewLimit, which was cofounded by Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and raised a $130 million Series B round from Kleiner Perkins and others in May.—N.W.
Grade: A-

What we predicted: Microsoft Will Stave Off the FTC’s Current Investigation
What happened: It’s too soon to say whether this prediction will age well or not down the road, but it didn’t come true in 2025. Andrew Ferguson, the Trump-appointed successor to Lina Khan as chair of the Federal Trade Commission, hasn’t moved to drop the agency’s far-reaching probe into Microsoft—instead, at least early on, Ferguson’s FTC continued its line of questioning by asking other companies about alleged anticompetitive behavior by Microsoft as of March 2025. That doesn’t necessarily mean the FTC will actually file a full-fledged antitrust lawsuit against Microsoft. Meanwhile, Trump himself has shown an appetite to go after Microsoft, including demanding that it fire its president of global affairs, Lisa Monaco, because she previously worked for the Obama and Biden White Houses. Microsoft has so far declined to do so.—Aaron Holmes
Grade: D

What we predicted: Trump Will Sign Child Online Safety Legislation Into Law
What happened: The president didn’t sign a comprehensive online safety law aimed at protecting children, such as the Kids Online Safety and Privacy Act, which passed the U.S. Senate in 2024 before stalling in the House. Such an event could be getting closer though. In mid-December, a House subcommittee advanced a package of 18 child online safety bills, including a new version of KOSA, for the full House Energy and Commerce Committee to consider. But compromises in that legislation have upset some lawmakers and it’s likely to face aggressive lobbying by the tech industry, making it hard to predict whether it will pass and in what form.—N.W.
Grade: D

What we predicted: Alibaba Will Acquire One of China’s Top AI Startups
What happened: Alibaba Group didn’t acquire Moonshot AI, as we predicted. The Chinese tech giant, however, did effectively acqui-hire some researchers from another major Chinese AI startup, 01.AI, which shifted its focus away from developing cutting-edge models.
Instead, the biggest event in China’s AI sector in 2025 was DeepSeek’s sudden rise to global stardom due to the release of R1, its highly capable open-source AI model. It prompted Moonshot and other Chinese AI startups to renew their focus on research and develop their own open-source models. In July, Moonshot launched a new model called Kimi K2, whose strong coding capabilities impressed app developers in the U.S. and elsewhere. On the back of Kimi K2’s success, Moonshot has been working on a new funding round at a valuation of $4 billion.—Juro Osawa
Grade: D

What we predicted: Josh Kushner Will Buy New York Magazine
What happened: In 2024, Kushner, the founder of investment firm Thrive Capital, made a handful of flashy media deals, including buying the rights to Life magazine and investing in the movie studio A24. So our speculation that he might snap up New York magazine wasn’t such a stretch. But we were wrong: Vox Media still owns the venerable magazine.—A.B.
Grade: F