>>> Happy New Year 2026.

May your alpha be positive, your drawdowns shallow, and your Sharpe ratio the envy of your peers.

Here’s to a year where the only thing more volatile than the markets is our collective optimism about predicting them.

Wishing you outsized returns and undersized regrets.

Cheers to 2026!

Laurent

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of January 2026

Stocks opened the new year with artificial intelligence and chipmaking once again dominating market moves. Precious metals — another hot corner of the market in 2025 — also advanced. Asian shares climbed 0.9%, with internet and chip stocks advancing and a regional technology gauge rising to a record. Samsung Electronics Co. touched an all-time high. Baidu Inc. gained 7.5% after its chip unit filed for an IPO, while AI chip designer Shanghai Biren Technology Co. doubled on its Hong Kong trading debut. Equity-index futures for the tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 Index advanced 0.7%. Spot gold rose 1.3% and silver jumped 2.5%, building on their best annual performances since 1979. Despite a recent pullback, global stocks in 2025 posted their strongest year since 2019, supported by expectations of stronger earnings and optimism around AI. Even so, uncertainty over the outlook for US monetary policy and elevated valuations among technology companies remain key risks. “AI is a major trading idea for Asian investors on the first trading day of 2026, and probably for the year too,” said Vey-Sern Ling, managing director at Union Bancaire Privee. Companies such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. and Samsung are like “picks and shovels” for the AI industry “with high earnings visibility for the year given the capex plans of US hyperscalers.” Tech stocks and AI were among the most dominating themes of 2025, helping equities recover from a slump in April caused by President Donald Trump’s century-high US tariffs. Asian companies struck joint ventures with chipmakers such as Nvidia Corp., prompting investors to cheer a wave of similar alliances. The Nasdaq 100 Index gained 20% last year, a third consecutive year of gains. Nvidia shares rose 39%, while Samsung advanced 126% and TSMC 44%. Then, in November, Wall Street chief executives said investors should brace for an equity market drop of more than 10% in the next 12 to 24 months, amid concerns about frothy valuations and bubbles among technology companies. In other corners of the market, copper and cryptocurrencies also gained, while Australia’s sovereign bonds dropped along with a gauge of the dollar. There was no cash trading in Treasuries during Asian hours due to a holiday in Japan. Markets in mainland China were also shut. While Asian stocks started off the year on a positive note, market research firm Bespoke Investment Group has cautioned against expecting solid market performance during the first trading day of the new year.  Since 1953, the S&P 500’s median change to kick off a new year has been a 0.3% drop, with gains less than half the time, according to a note by Bespoke. The stock market has also traded lower on the first trading day of each of the past three years, the note said. However, investors have at least one reason to be optimistic. MSCI’s gauge for global stocks has climbed an average 1.4% in January over the last 10 years and advanced in six of those instances, data compiled by Bloomberg showed. “The end of 2025 was a fizzer in global markets but it doesn’t detract from the fact it was a very good year for investors,” Kyle Rodda, a senior analyst at Capital.com, wrote in a note. “Naturally, the start of the new year comes with the question everyone asks moving from one year to the next: will this continue? The consensus is that, yes, it will.”

Nikkei Closed Hang Seng +2.70% CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1.1756 CNH 6.9740 CNY 6.9890 JPY 156.84 GBP 1.3480 CHF 0.7920 RUB 78.7500 TRY 43.0202 WTI$ 57.73 +0.54% Gold 4,378 +1.36% BTC 88,492 +0.25% ETH 3,006 +0.68% SOL 126.73 +1.14%

S&P +0.47% Nasdaq +0.74% EuroStoxx -0.43% FTSE +0.28% Dax 0.10% SMI

Macro :
- About 40 Killed in Fire at Swiss Resort of Crans-Montana
- Christine Lagarde’s pay is 50% higher than disclosed by ECB - FT
- Trump Delays New Tariff Hike on Furniture, Kitchen Cabinets
- Jack Smith Says Trump Allies Were Willing to Testify Against Him
- European Stocks Close Best Year Since 2021 Near Record Highs
- Drugmakers to raise US prices on at least 350 medicines despite pressure from Trump - NY Post
- Italy Lower House said to approve 2026 budget; vote: 216 to 126, Budget targets a budget deficit of 2.8% in 2026 ()compares to 3.0% in 2025)

Keep an eye on :
- AF FP : KLM and Unions Reach Labor Agreement for Cabin Crew
- AMP SM : Amper Rallies After Winning Two Mauritania Airport Contracts
- AAPL US : Apple cuts Vision Pro production and marketing after weak sales - FT
- BIDU US : Baidu Chip Unit Kunlunxin Confidentially Files for Hong Kong IPO
- BA US : Boeing Wins $2.73 Billion U.S. Army Contract
- BN CN : Brookfield to Start Cloud Computing Business: The Information
- 1211 HK : BYD's Sales Growth Slowed in 2025, But Still Set to Top Tesla
- CAN LN : Canal+, Warner Bros. Discovery Sign New Multi-Year Pact
- DeepSeek : DeepSeek Touts New Training Method as China Pushes AI Efficiency
- LLY US : Celltrion Signs 678.7b Won CMO Contract With Eli Lilly
- EOAN GY : Said to call for the end to gov't subsidies for solar power in Germany - German press - Source TradeTheNews.com
- ELISA FH : Finland Seizes Ship Suspected of Damaging Subsea Cable
- EMGS NO : Evaluating several alternatives to preserve value for its stakeholders, including restructuring options - Expects to require additional funding within the near term to sustain operations
- KER FP : Luxury discounting on the rise as years of price increases bite - FT
- LMT US : Lockheed Wins $328.5 Million U.S. Air Force Contract
- MC FP : Luxury discounting on the rise as years of price increases bite - FT
- MTRS SS : Munters Wins SEK2.1b of Orders for Data Center Equipment in US
- NEE US : NextEra Energy Files for $4b Shares ATM Offering
- NIO US : NIO Inc. Dec. Deliveries 48,135 Vs. 36,275 M/M
- ORSTED DC : Trump admin sued for halting work on the US’s largest offshore wind farm - Electrek
- ORSTED DC : Orsted JV to File Prelim Injunction vs US Lease Suspension Order
- 1913 HK : Prada : -0.14% : Luxury discounting on the rise as years of price increases bite - FT
- PRY IM : Prysmian May Consider Acquisitions in 2026: CEO to Repubblica
- SKAB SS : Skanska Signs Contract to Build Data Center in US for $228m
- SLB US : Adnoc Drilling Buys 70% Stake in SLB JV for Kuwait, Oman Rigs
- SPM IM : Saipem Wins Offshore Contract in Black Sea Worth About $425m
- SNCVP BB : SNCB Rail Unions Plan Strike at End of January, Belga Reports
- TSLA US : Tesla Sales Outlook Darkens Despite Musk’s Self-Driving Euphoria
- TSLA US : Tesla Cuts EV Prices By Up to $6,490 in South Korea: Chosun
- TRC LN : Revel Collective Told Bidders to Submit Offers by Jan. 9: Sky
- VLA FP : Valneva, Serum Institute of India End Chikungunya Vaccine Pact
- VOD LN : Vodafone Idea Shares Rise After Pact on Contingent Liabilities
- WBD US : Canal+, Warner Bros. Discovery Sign New Multi-Year Pact
- XPEV US : Xpeng Dec. Vehicle Deliveries 37,508 Units

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Fresnillo (FNL TH) +3.4%
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +2.8%
  • Umicore (NVJP TH) +1.2%
  • GTT (9TG TH) -1.1%
  • 3i (IGQ5 TH) -1.1%
  • M&G (7MP TH) -1.3%
  • Yara (IU2 TH) -1.3%
  • Magnum Ice Cream (7RM TH) -1.4%
  • Saab (SDV1 TH) -1.4%
  • Bavarian Nordic (BV3 TH) -1.5%
  • Orange (FTE TH) -1.5%
  • Hexagon (HXG TH) -1.8%
  • Abivax (2X1 TH) -3.5%

TechCrunch : ‘College dropout’ has become the most coveted startup founder crede

‘College dropout’ has become the most coveted startup founder credential

Although iconic founders like Steve Jobs, Bill Gates, and Mark Zuckerberg famously didn’t finish college, multiple studies show that the vast majority of successful startups had founders with bachelor’s or graduate degrees.

Despite this data, the appeal of a dropout founder persists, though VC enthusiasm for the ‘un-degreed’ is far from constant. It is a phenomenon that cycles in and out of fashion, and right now it is certainly having a moment amid the AI boom.

This trend is particularly evident during Y Combinator Demo Days, where founders are increasingly touting their dropout status in their one-minute pitches.

“I don’t believe YC formally tracks dropout status but, anecdotally, in recent batches, I was struck by how many founders highlight being a dropout from college, grad school, and even high school,” said Katie Jacobs Stanton, founder and general partner of Moxxie Ventures. “Being a dropout is a kind of credential in itself, reflecting a deep conviction and commitment to building. I think it’s perceived as something quite positive in the venture ecosystem.”

Although many of the leading founders of the AI wave are young, most still opted to stay for the diploma. For instance, Michael Truell, the CEO of Cursor, graduated from MIT, and Cognition co-founder Scott Wu graduated from Harvard.

Yet despite these examples, a growing number of aspiring entrepreneurs fear that staying to graduate means missing the most critical window of the AI building cycle. Some, like Brendan Foody, who co-founded Mercor, have famously dropped out of prestigious schools like Georgetown to pursue their startups.

As Kulveer Taggar, founder of the YC-focused venture firm Phosphor Capital, told TechCrunch: “There’s just this sense of urgency and maybe FOMO.” There is a calculation right now: “I can finish my degree, or I can just start building.”

This fear is leading to extreme cases. One professor at an elite university recently described a student walking away from his degree in his final semester. That student was convinced that having a diploma would actually hurt his chances of getting funded.

While some founders fear that a diploma could be a negative signal, Yuri Sagalov, who leads General Catalyst’s seed strategy, suggests that VCs are less fixated on the dropout label, especially for students close to graduating: “I don’t think I’ve ever felt any different about someone who graduated or didn’t graduate when they’re in [their] fourth year and drop out.”

Even though self-taught tech prodigies can build startups without a formal education, Sagalov argues that there’s still value in the social network that a university creates and the brand of the university, even if the founder doesn’t receive a diploma.

‘You get a lot of the social value… because you can put the fact that you participated,’ Sagalov said. “Most people will look you up on LinkedIn and not care as much whether you finished or not.”

While many investors now believe founders can forego a university degree, not all VCs agree that young founders have an edge in this market.

Wesley Chan, co-founder of FPV Ventures, isn’t as eager to invest in dropouts because he prioritizes a trait most young founders haven’t developed yet: wisdom. Chan believes that wisdom is typically found in “older founders or people who have a couple of scars under their belt.”

TechCrunch : OpenAI bets big on audio as Silicon Valley declares war on screens

OpenAI bets big on audio as Silicon Valley declares war on screens

OpenAI is betting big on audio AI, and it’s not just about making ChatGPT sound better. According to new reporting from The Information, the company has unified several engineering, product, and research teams over the past two months to overhaul its audio models, all in preparation for an audio-first personal device expected to launch in about a year.

The move reflects where the entire tech industry is headed — toward a future where screens become background noise and audio takes center stage. Smart speakers have already made voice assistants a fixture in more than a third of U.S. homes. Meta just rolled out a feature for its Ray-Ban smart glasses that uses a five-microphone array to help you hear conversations in noisy rooms — essentially turning your face into a directional listening device. Google, meanwhile, began experimenting in June with “Audio Overviews” that transform search results into conversational summaries, and Tesla is integrating xAI’s chatbot Grok into its vehicles to create a conversational voice assistant that handles everything from navigation to climate control through natural dialogue.

It’s not just the tech giants placing this bet. A motley crew of startups has emerged with the same conviction, albeit with varying degrees of success. The makers of the Humane AI Pin burned through hundreds of millions before their screenless wearable became a cautionary tale. The Friend AI pendant, a necklace that claims it will record your life and offer companionship, has sparked privacy concerns and existential dread in equal measure. And now at least two companies, including Sandbar and one helmed by Pebble founder Eric Migicovsky, are building AI rings expected to debut in 2026, allowing wearers to literally talk to the hand.

The form factors may differ, but the thesis is the same: audio is the interface of the future. Every space — your home, your car, even your face — is becoming a control surface.

OpenAI’s new audio model, slated for early 2026, will reportedly sound more natural, handle interruptions like an actual conversation partner, and even speak while you’re talking, which is something today’s models can’t manage. The company is also said to envision a family of devices, possibly including glasses or screenless smart speakers, that act less like tools and more like companions.

None of this is hugely surprising. As The Information notes, former Apple design chief Jony Ive, who joined OpenAI’s hardware efforts through the company’s $6.5 billion acquisition in May of his firm io, has made reducing device addiction a priority, seeing audio-first design as a chance to “right the wrongs” of past consumer gadgets.

Reuters : Jan 1 (Reuters) - Canada-based Capstone Copper (CS.TO), opens new tab

Jan 1 (Reuters) - Canada-based Capstone Copper (CS.TO), opens new tab said on Thursday that a union representing about half the workers at its Mantoverde copper and gold mine in Chile and roughly 22% of the company's total workforce will launch a strike on January 2.

The copper miner said it had sought to reach a new collective bargaining agreement before the strike notice and will gradually scale down operations at the mine in a safe manner. Output is expected to run at up to 30% of normal levels during the stoppage, it added.

Capstone said it remains open to talks to resolve the dispute.

Mantoverde is 70% owned by Capstone and 30% by Mitsubishi Materials (5711.T), opens new tab. The mine is forecast to produce between 29,000 and 32,000 metric tons of copper cathodes in 2025.

WSJ : Threat of California Billionaire Tax Draws Criticism From Ultrawealthy

Threat of California Billionaire Tax Draws Criticism From Ultrawealthy
Opponents say tax proposal is driving high-net-worth residents out of state. It would retroactively apply to billionaires who were residents on Jan. 1.

A proposed California ballot initiative seeks a one-time 5% tax on assets of billionaires, with payment due over five years.
The firms of investors Peter Thiel and David Sacks said on New Year’s Eve that they opened new offices outside of California.
The proposed tax, estimated to raise $100 billion, faces opposition from Gov. Gavin Newsom and potential legal challenges.

High-profile tech investors criticized a proposed tax on the ultrawealthy in California in the final hours of 2025, while some of the state’s big-name billionaires took steps to create distance between themselves and the Golden State.

A proposed ballot initiative from a California healthcare union would impose a one-time, 5% tax on the assets of those with net worths above $1 billion who lived in the state as of Thursday. The tax would apply to assets like stocks, artwork and intellectual property rights, rather than income, and billionaires would have five years to pay.

Bay Area investor Chamath Palihapitiya said on X Thursday that he knew of people “with a collective net worth” of $500 billion who “scrambled and left California for good” before the end of 2025.

“They took no risk because of the proposed asset seizure tax—introduced as a ‘Billionaire Tax,’ ” he wrote. “Without these people, the California budget deficit will only get bigger.” Palihapitiya didn’t name any individuals or provide proof of his claim. He didn’t immediately return a request for comment.

The firms of two high-profile California investors issued announcements on New Year’s Eve about establishing new offices out of state, without saying anything about the proposed Golden State tax.

Tech investor Peter Thiel’s investment firm, Thiel Capital, said it signed a lease in December for office space in Miami. The office will “complement Thiel Capital’s existing operations in Los Angeles,” the company said.

Thiel has “established a significant presence in Miami over the last several years,” the release said. Thiel bought a house in Miami Beach in 2020, which was once the set for “The Real World: Miami,” and opened a Florida office for his Founders Fund venture-capital firm in 2021.

Venture-capital firm Craft Ventures, which Trump administration AI and crypto czar David Sacks co-founded in 2017, said that the company had signed a lease on an office space in Texas in December. The company said co-founder Bill Lee has been living and working in Austin since 2022, and that Sacks had “relocated to the area” earlier in the month.

Both founders will “now be working out of the new Austin office,” but Craft will maintain its offices in New York and San Francisco.

Thiel has a house in the Hollywood Hills in Los Angeles and Sacks has a home in Pacific Heights in San Francisco. Representatives for Thiel and Sacks didn’t return requests for comment.

California, home to a host of Silicon Valley and Hollywood titans, had an estimated 255 billionaires last year, more than any other state, according to Altrata, a wealth-intelligence firm. More than one-third of California’s tax revenue comes from the top 1% of earners.

The wealth tax proposal still needs some 875,000 signatures to appear on the November ballot and, if passed by voters, would retroactively apply to billionaires who were residents on Jan. 1.

Claims of the ultrawealthy fleeing to avoid taxation “are often overstated, and decades of research show that tax-driven migration among the very wealthy is limited,” said Suzanne Jimenez, the ballot measure sponsor and the chief of staff of the Service Employees International Union-United Healthcare Workers West.

The billionaire tax proposal, which would raise an estimated $100 billion, is “simple, one time, fair, and workable now” to address one issue, she said: looming federal cuts to Medicaid.

“Asking those who have benefited most from the economy to contribute more—particularly to stabilize healthcare systems under direct threat—is not radical. It is reasonable,” she said

Proving to California’s tax board that you are no longer a resident and not required to pay its state taxes is a complex process that requires extensive documentation and can drag on for years, experts say.

The union’s proposal has sparked some high-profile opposition, including from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat. Consultants allied with Newsom are running the campaign to oppose the measure. Venture capitalist Ron Conway has contributed $100,000 to the committee, which is called “Stop the Squeeze,” campaign finance records show.

Newsom has fielded entreaties from billionaires and their allies, including from a litigator who has represented clients including Elon Musk and Jay-Z. The lawyer, Alex Spiro of Quinn Emanuel, told Newsom in a December letter seen by The Wall Street Journal that his billionaire clients in California were prepared to start years of “protracted and expensive” litigation if the measure moved forward. He didn’t name those clients.

Spiro said in the letter that the passage of the wealth tax could create an exodus of billionaires from the state and trigger market instability if they were forced to liquidate or reduce stakes in businesses, venture capital funds and real estate to pay the tax bill. His clients “prefer to remain in California and continue contributing to the state’s economy and civic life,” Spiro wrote, but won’t stay in the state if they are “subjected to an unconstitutional confiscation of their wealth.”

The California proposal has sparked a broader public debate among some billionaires over alternate ways that they could be taxed.

Bill Ackman, the vociferous hedge-fund manager based in New York, called the California union’s proposal “an expropriation of private property” in a post on X this week.

The California measure would take an unprecedented step toward taxing assets, while Ackman proposed an idea that would aim to address the loophole known as “buy, borrow, die” that allows rich Americans to live tax-free off their paper wealth.

Ackman proposed a tax on personal loans backed by appreciated assets, when the loan amount is more than the basis of the investment. The proposal zeroes in on the fact that many billionaires’ wealth is largely tied up in noncash investments, such as stock, bonds, property or art. They are able to borrow money against the gains in their holdings without having to sell the underlying assets and incur capital-gains taxes.

Ackman’s post received an endorsement on X from fellow billionaire Mark Cuban, who is often on the opposite side of political debates from Ackman, an outspoken Trump supporter.

Changes to the state and federal tax codes should be part of a broader debate about tax reform, but the California ballot measure cannot “solve every inequity in the tax code at once,” Jimenez said.

Levies on the country’s richest residents have popped up in multiple forms in recent years, including in Massachusetts, where voters in 2022 approved a 4% surtax on annual incomes over $1 million. New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani has said he would fund an ambitious affordability agenda with new taxes on companies and the wealthy. Such proposals would need the approval of the state legislature and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul.

WSJ : Baidu’s AI Chip Unit Kunlunxin Plans Hong Kong Listing

Baidu’s AI Chip Unit Kunlunxin Plans Hong Kong Listing
The filing comes amid a surge of AI-related listings in Hong Kong

Baidu’s BIDU -1.30%decrease; red down pointing triangle AI chip unit Kunlunxin has confidentially filed an application to list on the Hong Kong stock exchange, the latest company to capitalize on the frenzy surrounding artificial intelligence.

Baidu, the Beijing-based search giant, said in a filing with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Friday that a listing application had been submitted on Jan. 1. It didn’t provide any details about the size of the offering.

Baidu’s Hong Kong-listed shares rose 7.5% to 141.30 Hong Kong dollars, equivalent to $18.16, at the midday break, outperforming Hang Seng Tech’s 3.4% gain.

Citi analysts said in a research note that while the move wasn’t a surprise, its timing was earlier than expected.

Baidu, which was once considered one of China’s most important technology titans alongside Alibaba Group and Tencent Holdings 700 3.76%increase; green up pointing triangle, has been facing pressure on both its top and bottom lines as its main advertising business slows. The company has been investing heavily in fields such as chip development, AI and self-driving technology as it seeks new avenues for growth.

Jefferies analysts said in a research note that Kunlunxin is likely to be valued between US$16 billion to US$23 billion. It maintained a buy rating on Baidu and raised the target price its Hong Kong shares to HK$176.00 from HK154.00 as it factored in the potential spin-off and listing of the chip unit.

The filing comes amid a surge of AI-related listings in Hong Kong. On Friday, AI chip maker Shanghai Biren Technology saw its shares soar 92% at its debut.

AI start-up MiniMax said earlier this week that it expects to raise HK$4.19 billion, while Knowledge Atlas Technology, better known as Zhipu AI, plans to raise HK$4.35 billion in their IPOs. Their shares were expected to start trading in early January.