>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
News:
  • DVLT -3.9% (converts $13.3 million in convertible debt)
  • GME -2.8% (filed for mixed securities shelf offering)
  • AMAT -2.6% (new BIS Affiliates Rule expected to reduce revenue)
  • IVVD -2.5% (mixed securities shelf offering)
  • UEC -2.1% (launches public offering of 15.5 mln shares of common stock)
  • KLAC -1.7% (in sympathy with AMAT news)
  • RCKT -1.6% (has voluntarily withdrawn its BLA to the FDA for mozafancogene autotemcel, an investigational gene therapy for the treatment of Fanconi Anemia)
  • LRCX -1.4% (in sympathy with AMAT news)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
News:
  • OVID +30.5% (topline results for the next-generation GABA-aminotransferase inhibitor, OV329; announces that it entered into a securities purchase agreement for a private investment in public equity financing that is expected to result in gross proceeds of up to $175 mln)
  • RUM +9.6% (new partnership with Perplexity)
  • MESO +8.8% (announces Ryoncil receives J-Code from Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS))
  • CRVS +4.4% (appoints NVO executive to Board)
  • AIIO +4.1% (Robo.ai and Changer.ae to launch world's first digital wallet for smart vehicles)
  • AOUT +3.4% (approves new $10 mln share repurchase program)
  • SUPX +2.4% (launches the XN9160-B300 AI Server)
  • CANG +2.2% (reports Bitcoin production and mining operations update)
  • FFAI +2.1% (exhibits at WETEX 2025 and announces FX Super One final launch in Dubai on October 28)
  • COUR +2% (CFO to step down; reaffirms guidance)
  • ERJ +2% (reports Q3 aircraft deliveries)
  • SVRA +1.7% (results from Phase 3 trial)
  • QNTM +1.4% (announces that it has established October 27, 2025 as the record date for the distribution of contingent value rights to holders of its Class B Subordinate Voting Shares on a one-for-one basis)
  • TSLA +1.3% (SOC Investment Group to vote against Musk's pay package)
  • IDR +1.3% (entered into a Sales Agreement with Roth Capital that reduced the commission to the Sales Agent from 3% to 2.5%)
  • SAVA +1.2% (Chief Operating and Legal Officer disclosed purchase of shares)
  • HIMS +1.1% (names new COO)
  • CDTX +1% ($339 mln award from Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of October 2025 V3(++)

>>> Up
* ABN Amro GDRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 32.50 euros
* Adidas Raised to Overweight at Banco Sabadell; PT 230 euros (++)
* AJ Bell PT Raised to 625 pence from 600 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Anglogold PT Raised to $76 from $57 at Roth Capital Partners (++)
* Bunzl Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 2,510 pence
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 190 pence
* Delek US Holdings Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Diploma Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 6,000 pence
* Ferrari Raised to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $490.28 (++)
* Hermes Raised to Overweight at Banco Sabadell; PT 2,330 euros (++)
* Indutrade Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets; PT 260 kronor (++)
* IntegraFin PT Raised to 450 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Kongsberg Raised to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 296 kroner
* Maisons du Monde Raised to Buy at TP ICAP Midcap; PT 2.60 euros (++)
* Nemetschek Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 125 euros (++)
* Occidental Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $55
* Outokumpu Raised to Buy at Danske Bank Markets; PT 5.20 euros (+)
* Pattern Raised to Buy at Corporate Family Office; PT 5.50 euros (++)
* Schroders Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 435 pence
* St James's Place PT Raised to 1,900 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* TechnipFMC PT Raised to $45 from $41 at Citi (++)
* Technoprobe PT Raised to 10.50 euros at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Upergy Raised to Neutral at Invest Securities SA; PT 1.60 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Financiere de Tubize Cut to Accumulate at KBC Securities (++)
* Fugro Cut to Hold at ING; PT 9.50 euros
* Galderma PT cut from 160 to 157 CHF at Goldman (+)
* Holcim PT cut from 75 to 74 CHF at Goldman
* Holcim PT cut from 81.30 to 77.60 CHF at Jefferies
* Kering Cut to Underweight at Banco Sabadell; PT 270 euros (++)
* Liontrust PT Cut to 280 pence from 290 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Mercedes Cut to Hold at Pekao Investment Banking; PT 61.10 euros (++)
* Merck & Co Cut to Sell at NYKREDIT (++)
* PayPal Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* PBF Energy Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27
* Porsche Cut to Sell at Pekao Investment Banking; PT 39.51 euros (++)
* Prysmian Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 90 euros (++)
* Rio Tinto Cut to Sell at SBG Securities; PT 4,960 pence (+)
* Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 107 euros
* Tate & Lyle Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 430 pence
* Valero Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $175
* Yara Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 400 kroner (+)

>>> Initiation
* Belimo Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 830 Swiss francs
* Bureau Veritas Reinstated Buy at BofA; PT 32 euros (++)
* Goldman Sachs Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $785
* Intertek Reinstated Buy at BofA; PT 5,990 pence (++)
* Intertek Reinstated at Buy at BofA; SGS at Underperform (++)
* KKR & Co. Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $148
* Lazard Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $56
* Uber Rated New Buy at Pekao Investment Banking; PT $139 (++)

>>> Call
* ABN Amro Advanced as Goldman Upgrades to Buy, Boosts Target (++)
* Bunzl Raised to Hold at Goldman Sachs, Reversing Bearish Stance (++)
* Saab Sell Ratings Multiply as Analysts See No Margin for Error
* SOL Shares Rise as Berenberg Ups Price Target, EPS Estimates (+)
* Tate & Lyle Cut by Barclays Following This Week’s Profit Warning (+)

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of October 2025 V2(+)

>>> Up
* ABN Amro GDRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 32.50 euros
* AJ Bell PT Raised to 625 pence from 600 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Bunzl Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 2,510 pence
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 190 pence
* Delek US Holdings Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Diploma Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 6,000 pence
* IntegraFin PT Raised to 450 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Kongsberg Raised to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 296 kroner
* Occidental Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $55
* Schroders Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 435 pence
* St James's Place PT Raised to 1,900 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Technoprobe PT Raised to 10.50 euros at Deutsche Bank (+)
* Upergy Raised to Neutral at Invest Securities SA; PT 1.60 euros (+)

>>> Down
* Fugro Cut to Hold at ING; PT 9.50 euros
* Galderma PT cut from 160 to 157 CHF at Goldman (+)
* Holcim PT cut from 75 to 74 CHF at Goldman
* Holcim PT cut from 81.30 to 77.60 CHF at Jefferies
* Liontrust PT Cut to 280 pence from 290 pence at Deutsche Bank (+)
* PayPal Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* PBF Energy Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27
* Rio Tinto Cut to Sell at SBG Securities; PT 4,960 pence (+)
* Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 107 euros
* Tate & Lyle Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 430 pence
* Valero Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $175
* Yara Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 400 kroner (+)

>>> Initiation
* Belimo Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 830 Swiss francs
* Goldman Sachs Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $785
* KKR & Co. Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $148
* Lazard Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $56

>>> Call
* Saab Sell Ratings Multiply as Analysts See No Margin for Error
* Tate & Lyle Cut by Barclays Following This Week’s Profit Warning (+)

>>> What to look at today - 3rd of October 2025

Asian stocks rose, poised for their fourth gain in five weeks, as optimism around artificial intelligence propelled global equities to fresh records. MSCI’s regional share gauge advanced 0.3% with Japanese technology stocks leading the charge. Hitachi Ltd. climbed the most since April after teaming up with OpenAI while Fujitsu Ltd. jumped over 4% on a partnership with Nvidia Corp. Shares retreated in Hong Kong. Investors are cheering a wave of AI alliances, wagering that the billions pouring into the sector will translate into profits and extend gains in tech shares. The rally underscored how bullish momentum in the sector is overshadowing concerns about the Trump administration’s plan to cut “thousands” of federal jobs amid the second day of a government shutdown. In other corners of the market, gold headed for a seventh weekly advance while oil was on track for its biggest weekly decline since late June, ahead of an OPEC+ meeting that’s expected to result in the return of more idled barrels.  A Bloomberg gauge of the dollar held its gains from the prior session while Treasuries edged lower with the yield on the 10-year gaining one basis point to 4.09%. The yen weakened against the dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda kept his policy options open by reiterating the bank’s long-held stance on interest rates, avoiding sending any clear signals about the prospects for a rate hike when the board meets later this month. Tech stocks got a fillip after OpenAI completed a deal to sell shares in the company at a $500 billion valuation, propelling the ChatGPT owner past Elon Musk’s SpaceX to become the world’s largest startup.  A combination of stable commodity prices, interest-rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and a range-bound dollar are boosting market sentiment, Homin Lee, Lombard Odier senior macro strategist, said in a Bloomberg TV interview. Elsewhere, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted a “pretty big breakthrough” in the next round of trade talks with China. The comments come as the Trump administration takes steps to support US farmers hurt by a decline in Chinese purchases. Traders were also contending with the temporary blackout in economic readouts after Thursday’s weekly initial jobless claims numbers were delayed by the government closure. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ nonfarm payrolls data on Friday will also likely be delayed amid the shutdown. US After Hours RUM +9.5% nicely higher on new partnership with Perplexity; AMAT -3.6% slides after new BIS Affiliates Rule expected to reduce revenue.

Nikkei +1.74% Hang Seng -0.73% CSI Closed Shanghai Closed Shenzen Closed

Eur$ 1.1725 CNH 7.1367 CNY 7.1214 JPY 147.67 GBP 1.3443 CHF 0.7975 RUB 82.4664 TRY 41.6681 WTI$ 60.82 +0.56% Gold 3,846 -0.28% BTC 12,342 -0.31% ETH 4,508 +0.30%

S&P +0.22% Nasdaq +0.28% EuroStoxx +0.16% FTSE +0.16% Dax +0.20% SMI +0.23%

Macro :
- Bitcoin Hits $120,000 for First Time Since Reaching Record High
- AQR’s Multistrategy Gains 15.6% as Quant Trades Stage a Comeback
- Bridgewater Soars 26% to Lead Pack of Biggest Hedge Funds
- Judge Keeps DC National Guard Legal Fight Moving During Shutdown
- Munich Airport Suspends Flights Due to Drone Sightings
- Typhoon Strengthens as It Hits Philippines, on Track to China
- Short seller Jim Chanos predicts more First Brands fiascos in private credit - FT
- Norwegian Salmon Export Value Rises 2% as Volumes Shrink

Keep an eye on :
- ALSN SW : Also Shrinks Management Board to 4 From 8 Members
- ALV GY : Pimco President Says Private Credit Fundraising ‘A Little Slow’
- AMAT US : Applied Materials Drops as $600m Hit to FY26 Net Revenue Seen
- AAPL US : Apple Pulls ICE-Tracking Apps on Justice Department’s Urging
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca’s US listing to leave £200mn UK stamp duty hole - FT
- BAKKA NO : Bakkafrost Prelim 3Q Farming Harvest in Faroes Island Beats Est.
- BBVA SM : BBVA Files Complaint To Regulator CNMV Against Sabadell: Pais
- BA US : Boeing Starts Next Phase of Contingency Plan Amid IAM 837 Strike
- BA US : Boeing 777X Said to Slide Into 2027, Driving Billions in Charges
- BC IM : Brunello Cucinelli Addresses and Rejects Short Seller’s Russia Al - WWD
- CLN SW : Clariant Rejects Allegations From BP Europe, ExxonMobil
- COIN US : Coinbase Raised to Buy at Rothschild & Co Redburn; PT $417
- CRVS US : Corvus Pharmaceuticals Appoints David Moore to Board of Directors
- CVC NA : CVC buys into private school group at triple 2021 valuation
- CVC NA : CVC to Buy 20% Stake in International Schools Partnership
- DBV FP : ADR +21.65% in the US --> 2,08
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank needs Germany’s fiscal bazooka to have perfect aim - FT
- ERJ US : Embraer 3Q Aircraft Deliveries 62 Jets Vs. 57 Y/y
- EGTX SS : Egetis Therapeutics Offering of Shares Prices at SEK5.10/Share
- EXPN LN : Experian and Peers Tumble on FICO’s Direct Approach: Street Wrap & FT
- ITX SM : How Uniqlo Is Mapping Out the ‘Next Era of Clothing’ Through Circularity - WWD
- JAZZ US : Jazz, Genentech Get Nod for Lurbinectedin Combination
- KER FP : Alessandro Michele on Reshaping Valentino Amid Industry Shifts, Financial Pressures - WWD
- LR FP : Legrand Agrees to Buy Avtron Power Solutions for $1.125B
- META US : Meta's new Superintelligence Labs executive is pushing staff to ditch slow internal systems for faster engineering tools
- NVDA US : Delays to Trump's U.A.E. Chips Deal Frustrate Nvidia's Jensen Huang -- WSJ
- OXY US : Occidental Swears Off New Big Deals Post-Berkshire Chemical Sale
- ORCL US : Oracle Investigating Hacks of Its Customers’ E-Business Suite
- PGHN SW : CVC to Buy 20% Stake in International Schools Partnership
- RBI AV : EU plans to hand Deripaska-linked assets to Raiffeisen
- ROG SW : Roche’s Tecentriq Plus Lurbinectedin Gets FDA Approval
- ROG SW : Roche Board’s Süssmuth Dyckerhoff Won’t Stand for Reelection
- RUM US : Rumble, Inc.: Rumble and Perplexity Enter into a Strategic Partnership --> +15% after hours
- SAB SM : BBVA Files Complaint To Regulator CNMV Against Sabadell: Pais
- SGO FP : St-Gobain in Pact to Sell Tumelero to Brazilian Group GG10
- TEF SM : America Movil, Entel Make Joint Bid for Telefonica’s Chile Unit
- TSLA US : Tesla, Elon Musk On The Defensive As Questions Arise Over Trillion-Dollar Pay Package, $500 Billion Fortune
- UBSG SW : UBS Funds Face $500 Million Exposure in First Brands Bankruptcy

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +2.6%
    • Nemetschek Raised to Buy From Hold by Berenberg
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +2.5%
  • Weir Group (42W TH) +2.3%
  • Raiffeisen (RAW TH) +2.2%
    • EU Plans to Hand Deripaska-Linked Assets to Raiffeisen: FT
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +2.2%
  • Legal & General (LGI TH) +1.4%
  • ABN Amro (AB2 TH) +1.4%
    • ABN Amro GDRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 32.50 euros
  • EQT (6EQ TH) +1.4%
  • Babcock (BW3 TH) +1.2%
  • Rubis (BYN TH) +1.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.8%
  • ASML (ASME TH) -0.5%
  • ASM Intl (AVS TH) -0.5%
  • Prysmian (AEU TH) -0.6%
    • EMEA Stocks Are Forming 90 Major Technical Chart Patterns
  • Leonardo (FMNB TH) -0.6%
    • Saab Sell Ratings Multiply as Analysts See No Margin for Error
  • Safran (SEJ1 TH) -0.6%
  • Evolution (E3G1 TH) -1.2%
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) -1.3%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 3rd of October 2025

>>> Up
* ABN Amro GDRs Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 32.50 euros
* Bunzl Raised to Neutral at Goldman; PT 2,510 pence
* Ceres Power Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 190 pence
* Delek US Holdings Raised to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Diploma Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 6,000 pence
* Kongsberg Raised to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 296 kroner
* Occidental Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT $55
* Schroders Raised to Buy at Citi; PT 435 pence

>>> Down
* Fugro Cut to Hold at ING; PT 9.50 euros
* Holcim PT cut from 75 to 74 CHF at Goldman
* Holcim PT cut from 81.30 to 77.60 CHF at Jefferies
* PayPal Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe
* PBF Energy Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $27
* Siemens Energy Cut to Neutral at Grupo Santander; PT 107 euros
* Tate & Lyle Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 430 pence
* Valero Energy Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT $175

>>> Initiation
* Belimo Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 830 Swiss francs
* Goldman Sachs Reinstated Market Perform at BMO; PT $785
* KKR & Co. Rated New Outperform at BMO; PT $148
* Lazard Rated New Market Perform at BMO; PT $56

>>> Call
* Saab Sell Ratings Multiply as Analysts See No Margin for Error

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.8%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.5%
MDAX:
  • Nemetschek (NEM TH) +2.6%
    • Nemetschek Raised to Buy From Hold by Berenberg
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +2.5%
  • IONOS Group SE (IOS TH) +1.1%
    • Ionos Extends Slump as Exane Warns of AI Disruption Threat
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.8%
SDAX:
  • Salzgitter (SZG TH) +2.2%
    • Salzgitter Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 40 euros
  • Dermapharm (DMP TH) +1.7%
  • Norma (NOEJ TH) +1.2%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +0.9%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +0.6%
  • Evotec (EVT TH) -0.5%
  • PVA TePla (TPE TH) -0.5%
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) -0.9%

FT : Short seller Jim Chanos predicts more First Brands fiascos in private credi

Short seller Jim Chanos predicts more First Brands fiascos in private credit
Investor famed for spotting Enron fraud sounds alarm on Wall Street’s booming debt machine

Jim Chanos, one of Wall Street’s best-known short sellers, has sounded the alarm on the private debt boom, telling the Financial Times that First Brands Group’s chaotic bankruptcy could augur a wave of corporate collapses.

Some of the biggest names on Wall Street are facing the prospect of multibillion-dollar losses from the bankruptcy of First Brands, a heavily indebted maker of spark plugs and windscreen wipers based in Ohio.

First Brands has now disclosed almost $12bn in debt and off-balance sheet financing built up in the years before its Sunday bankruptcy filing, which also ensnared less well-known private lenders such as a Utah-based leasing specialist.

“I suspect we’re going to see more of these things, like First Brands and others, when the cycle ultimately reverses,” Chanos told the Financial Times, “particularly as private credit has put another layer between the actual lenders and the borrowers.”

Chanos, 67, cemented his reputation shorting energy trader Enron, which like First Brands made substantial use of off-balance sheet financing and whose $70bn collapse heralded the onset of the 2001 stock market crash.

He announced in 2023 that he was closing his main hedge funds after more than three decades, while continuing to offer bespoke advice on fundamental short ideas as well as some macro insights.

In a 2020 Lunch with the FT interview, Chanos said financial markets were in “the golden age of fraud”. On Thursday he said this phenomenon had “done nothing but gallop even higher” since he made the remark.

First Brands has not been accused of fraud. However, a bankruptcy probe into its byzantine off-balance sheet financing is examining whether the company pledged the same invoices multiple times. This investigation has also uncovered that debt collateral may have been “commingled”. 

The FT has previously reported that the group’s founder and owner, low-profile businessman Patrick James, was previously sued by two lenders that alleged that fraudulent conduct had exacerbated their losses.

James strongly denied the allegations of fraud in the two cases, which were both dismissed after settlements were reached. 

First Brands and James did not respond to a request for comment.

Chanos likened the near $2tn private credit apparatus fuelling Wall Street’s lending boom to the packaging up of subprime mortgages that preceded the 2008 financial crisis, due to the “layers of people in between the source of the money and the use of the money”.

Privately owned First Brands’ eschewed the more public bond market in favour of borrowing money through so-called leveraged loans. It also raised billions of dollars through even more opaque financing backed by its invoices and inventory, which was often provided through private credit funds.

“With the advent of private credit . . . institutions [are] putting money into this magical machine that gives you equity rates of return for senior debt exposure,” he said, adding that these high yields for seemingly safe investments “should be the first red flag”.

The FT has previously reported that some private credit fund managers had estimated returns in excess of 50 per cent on First Brands’ supposedly secured inventory debt.

Even many of the most sophisticated credit specialists on Wall Street were until recently unaware of the existence of the US auto parts maker’s special purpose entities (SPEs) backing its inventory financing.

Traders at Goldman Sachs told clients hours before these financing vehicles separately filed for bankruptcy last week that they just had discovered indications of high-cost borrowing from these entities that were “hard to reconcile”.

Chanos said: “We rarely get to see how the sausage is made.”

First Brands’ bankruptcy has revealed that James controlled both the auto parts conglomerate and some of its off-balance sheet SPEs through the same chain of limited liability corporations. Chanos described this common ownership as a “huge red flag”.

His short thesis against Enron was fuelled in part by the realisation that executives at the group were managing SPEs that engaged in complex transactions outside the purview of its corporate balance sheet.

In contrast to Enron, First Brands’ financial statements were not publicly available. While hundreds of managers of so-called collateralised loan obligations had access to its financial disclosure, they had to consent to non-disclosure agreements to receive the documents.

“The opaqueness is part of the process,” Chanos said. “That’s a feature not a bug.”