>>> What to look at todat - 2nd of March 2020

The worst stock rout since the global financial crisis showed signs of at least a pause on Monday, prompted by optimism that central banks will again save the day.
U.S. futures saw modest gains after the S&P 500 Index closed out its worst week since 2008. Monday began with further declines in stocks and gains in bonds, before the Bank of Japan joined the Federal Reserve in issuing a rare statement assuring that “appropriate” actions will be taken. In Australia, an interest-rate cut by the central bank is now seen as a done deal Tuesday. U.S., Australian and New Zealand 10-year bond yields hit fresh record lows. The yen slid.

Nikkei +0.95% Hnag Seng +0.85% CSI +3.68% Shanghai +3.41% Shenzen +4.20%

Eur$ 1.1040 CNH 6.9725 CNY 6.9712 JPY 108.23 GBP 1.2840 CHF 0.9650 RUB 66.7277 TRY 6.2361 WTI$ 46.07 +2.93%

S&P +0.41% EuroStoxx 1.42% Dax +1.51% FTSE +1.81% SMI

Macro :
- The Good, the Bad and Ugly of Virus Response: Mohamed El-Erian
- A Border Crisis at EU’s Doors as Migrants Travel From Turkey
- Fed Ready to Cut Rates Despite Doubt They Can Fix Virus Fallout
- Fast Up, Faster Down: Four Stock Charts Show How Bears Took Over
- China Factory Activity Weakest on Record Due to Coronavirus
- Panic in Volatility Markets Is Getting Even Worse Than Stocks
- Valuation Charts All Over Map and That’s a Problem for Stocks
- A Morgan Stanley Manager Who Sold Before Rout Says He’s Buying

Keep an eye on :
- ACPH BB : Acacia Pharma Names Scott Byrd as Chairman, Gary Gemignani CFO
- AIR FP : Boeing Pledges Fuller Testing on Starliner Before Future Flights
- AF FP : Air France-KLM Said to Move to Cost-Cutting Crisis Mode on Virus
- BMW GY : BMW Turns to Web to Splash Out New Model After Geneva Show Axed
- BOBNN SW : Bobst FY EBIT Beats Highest Estimate; Sees Coronavirus Impact
- BRBY LN : Burberry Is Said to Weigh Boosting CEO Gobbetti’s Pay Package
- CABK SM : Billions at Stake for Spanish Banks in EU Court Mortgage Ruling
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Internal Controls Face U.K. Regulator Scrutiny: FT
- DBV FP : DBV Says Underwriters Partially Exercise Overallocation Option
- DTE GY : Deutsche Telekom Bets on Disney Content in Fight With Vodafone
- BAER SW : Julius Baer’s Moody’s Downgrade Worsens Latin America Hangover
- EMMN SW : Emmi Sees 2020 Ebit CHF255 Mln To CHF265 Mln
- ERICB SS : Ericsson Urged by Its Top Investor to Consider U.S. Investment
- EL FP : EssilorLuxottica Says Hilary Halper Steps Down as Co-CFO
- EXO IM : Covea, PartnerRe Deal Seen Imminent: Les Echos
- FUM1V FH : Nokia Names Fortum’s Pekka Lundmark New CEO
- HSBA LN : Billionaire Hohn’s Foundation Takes Aim at Banks Over Coal Loans
- ISR GY : Isra Vision First Quarter Ebitda EU12.2 Mln
- KVW NA : Reggeborgh Declares Offer for VolkerWessels Unconditional
- MMB FP : Amber Capital Concert Stake in Lagardere Rises To 14%: AMF
- LHN SW : LafargeHolcim Is Open to Bigger Acquisitions, CEO Tells FuW
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Cuts Intra-Europe Capacity to Ease Pain: React
- MAN GY : Traton to Implement Squeeze-Out of Minority Holders of Man SE
- MOR GY : Morphosys Gets FDA Priority Review for Tafasitamab, Lenalidomide
- MUV2 GY : Non-Life Insurers Better Protected Amid Virus Correction: RBC
- NMC LN : Abu Dhabi Wealth Fund Said to Weigh Investment in Troubled NMC
- NMC LN : FT : NMC Health hires Moelis to advise on debt restructuring - https://on.ft.com/389V02R
- NOKIA FH : Nokia Names Fortum’s Pekka Lundmark New CEO
- NOKIA FH : Huawei Makes End-Run Around U.S. Ban by Turning to Its Own Chips
- OXY US : Wyoming, Occidental Land Deal Could Reach $3 Billion, FT Says
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall Full Year Ebit Beats Highest Estimate
- SESG FP : FCC Chief Sees No Case for ‘Significant’ Increase for Intelsat
- SESG FP : SES to Mull Separation of Networks Business, Cuts 2020 Forecasts
- SIE GY : Mordashov’s Power Machines to Exit JV With Siemens: Kommersant
- SNBN SW : SNB Full Year Profit CHF48.85 Bln
- TOM2 NA : Initiates today previously announced buyback of up to €50M
- 8TRA GY : Traton to Implement Squeeze-Out of Minority Holders of Man SE
- VOW3 GY : VW Defies Virus Gloom With Robust Outlook for 2020 Car Sales (2)
- VOW3 GY : Traton to Implement Squeeze-Out of Minority Holders of Man SE
- VOW3 GY : German Auto Industry Bracing for Slump as Demand Dips, Ifo Says
- VOW3 GY : VW Abandons Development of New Natural Gas Models: Handelsblatt

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of March 2020

>>> Up
* Apple Raised to Outperform at Oppenheimer; PT $320
* Groupe SFPI Raised to Add at Gilbert Dupont; PT 1.80 euros
* Schneider Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 110 euros
* Telecom Italia Raised to Buy at New Street Research
* ThyssenKrupp Raised to Hold at Bankhaus Metzler; PT 10.20 euros
* Weir Raised to Hold at Shore Capital; PT 1,500 pence

>>> Down
* ABB Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 19 Swiss francs
* Dassault Aviation Cut to Hold at SocGen; PT 1,000 euros
* EasyJet Cut to Add at AlphaValue
* Engie Cut to Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 17 euros
* Petropavlovsk Cut to Add at Peel Hunt

>>> initiation
* Assa Abloy Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT 225 kronor
* Atlas Copco Reinstated Underperform at Jefferies; PT 300 kronor
* dormakaba Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 620 Swiss francs
* EOS Imaging Cut to Hold at Gilbert Dupont; PT 2.80 euros
* GEA Group Reinstated Buy at Jefferies; PT 30 euros
* Kone Oyj Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT 45.20 euros
* Sandvik Reinstated Hold at Jefferies; PT 182 kronor
* SKF Reinstated Underperform at Jefferies; PT 149 kronor

>>> Call
* Non-Life Insurers Better Protected Amid Virus Correction: RBC
* GEA, Dometic Top Picks as Jefferies Initiates on Mechanicals
* Tesco Shares Are Significantly Undervalued, Jefferies Says
* Weir Casts Off Only Sell Rating; Shore Backs Unit Sale (Feb. 28)

Les Echos : Covea, PartnerRe Deal Seen Imminent: Les Echos

Assurance : Covéa espère conclure un accord sur PartnerRe dans les prochains jours
Les « discussions exclusives » entre l'assureur mutualiste et le holding de la famille Agnelli entrent dans la dernière ligne droite. En cas de succès, Covéa devra obtenir les agréments nécessaires pour acheter PartnerRe alors que sa gouvernance fait l'objet de critiques du superviseur français.

La tempête boursière ne devrait pas entraver la marche de Covéa. Les « discussions exclusives », annoncées le 9 février dernier, de l'assureur mutualiste avec le holding de la famille Agnelli, Exor, pour lui racheter le réassureur PartnerRe entrent « dans la dernière ligne droite », selon une source proche du dossier. Une annonce commune sur un accord de principe doit intervenir avant la mi-mars, voire plus tôt, sans conditions liées au financement.
Le prix avancé serait d'environ 9 milliards de dollars en cash , soit une prime de 20 % par rapport à la « juste valeur » du douzième réassureur mondial (7,6 milliards de dollars), inscrite dans les comptes d'Exor. A moins que cette valeur ne soit révisée compte tenu des conditions de marché. La semaine dernière, SCOR et Munich Ré ont évoqué des conséquences pour l'heure « peu significatives » du coronavirus pour la réassurance.

Un ratio de solvabilité ramené à 250 %
Le prix n'est pas un obstacle pour le groupe présidé par Thierry Derez, qui affiche un ratio de solvabilité de 411 %, une note de crédit AA- et quelque 10 milliards d'euros d'excédents, répartis entre le holding Covéa Coopérations et les mutuelles du groupe. Après le rachat, le ratio de solvabilité serait ramené autour de 250 %, soit la moyenne haute du secteur. En fait, les modalités de financement sont déjà arrêtées. Et pour cause. En août 2018, Covéa avait déjà proposé de racheter SCOR dont le mutualiste détient 8 %, sur la base d'une valorisation globale de 8,2 milliards d'euros.
Plusieurs scénarios avaient alors été envisagés, dont la mise en place de prêts accordés par différentes mutuelles en faveur de Covéa Coopérations pour un montant global de 6 milliards d'euros. Un montage qui présentait l'intérêt de ne pas solliciter le marché (ou les banques) ni de consommer des fonds propres, les prêts étant destinés à être remboursés. Si ce n'est pas sur la table aujourd'hui, une introduction en Bourse de PartnerRe est une autre option.
Cette acquisition permettrait de créer un groupe d'assurance diversifié de près de 24 milliards d'euros de primes (sur la base des chiffres pro forma2018), très axé sur l'assurance dommages (IARD) en France (43 %), et la réassurance (24 %), dont la moitié sur la réassurance dommages.
Panne de croissance en France
Jusqu'ici, Covéa s'est tenu éloigné des opérations de croissance externe sur ses métiers (ce qui explique en grande partie sa richesse accumulée) et ses initiatives à l'international ont fait long feu, comme en témoigne la récente cession de sa participation de 20 % dans l'assureur dommages espagnol Caser. Or, l'assureur se devait de reprendre l'initiative pour pallier sa panne de croissance en France… ou rendre une partie de ses réserves aux sociétaires, via des baisses de tarifs.

Le choix de la réassurance s'est progressivement imposé depuis les premières réflexions entamées sur le sujet dès 2011. Objectif : se diversifier, géographiquement aussi, pour mieux amortir les effets de cycles dans les différents métiers. De nombreux obstacles restent cependant à franchir, notamment l'intégration de nouvelles équipes à la culture très différente, la nécessité de renforcer les ressources internes au niveau de Covéa et d'obtenir les agréments nécessaires, notamment du régulateur bermudien BMA.
Le feu vert des conseils d'administration de Covéa devrait être une simple formalité, ces derniers se sont déjà de facto prononcés lors de la tentative sur SCOR et l'ouverture des négociations avec Exor. Reste que la gouvernance sera une question clé alors que l'assureur mutualiste fait l'objet de fortes critiques de la part du superviseur français, l'ACPR. Pour les superviseurs, le message est clair : lorsqu'un groupe change de dimension, il doit suivre les mêmes règles que ses pairs.

>>> Tom Tom : Initiates previously announced buyback of up to €50M (update) - On

Tom Tom - Initiates previously announced buyback of up to €50M (update)
- On 2 March 2020, TomTom (TOM2) announced the start of its share buyback program to repurchase ordinary TomTom shares for an amount up to €50 million. TomTom will use the shares to cover its commitments arising from its stock option and share plans.
- The share buyback program will ultimately end on 31 August 2020, unless the amount of €50 million has been repurchased prior to that date.
- The program will be executed by an intermediary to allow for share buybacks in the open market during both open and closed periods. The program will be executed within the limits of relevant laws and regulations and the existing authority granted by our General Meeting. Related ()

FT : Creep — Radiohead spent years ignoring one of their most popular songs

Creep — Radiohead spent years ignoring one of their most popular songs
The band’s disdain for their 1992 track was not shared by their fans — or by those who covered it

In September 1992, DJs at BBC Radio 1 almost irrevocably compromised the future of British rock music when they refused to give airtime to a fledgling band called Radiohead, whose violently lugubrious debut single, “Creep”, was deemed “too depressing” for the wider listenership.

The fact that the song has now clocked up combined plays on Spotify and YouTube of nearly 1bn suggests otherwise, but it’s easy to see where the DJs were coming from — after all, this angsty song oscillates between self-pitying insecurity and an off-puttingly earnest reverence for an unknown girl. The decision to make Radiohead all but radio-dead unsurprisingly had a deleterious impact on sales, and “Creep” charted at a lowly 78 in the UK.

But, with an element of fitting nominative determinism, “Creep” slowly began to gain traction globally in 1993. First in Israel — where it became such a huge hit that it gave Radiohead the platform to play their first international show — then New Zealand, Scandinavia and finally the US. While “breaking America” had been a white whale for many British bands, Radiohead found a far more receptive audience there, as “Creep” chimed with grungy American Gen X outsider anthems such as Nirvana’s “Smells Like Teen Spirit”, Pearl Jam’s “Alive” and Beck’s “Loser”.

Radiohead re-released “Creep” in the UK in the autumn of 1993, where it reached number 7. But the song’s newfound mass appeal was a Faustian trade-off of sorts; “Creep” was not an effort the group were particularly proud of, but their career could only develop off the back of its success. Radiohead may have been embarrassed by its rawness, but, for many others, “Creep” was a winning introduction to singer Thom Yorke’s sublime vocal range and the compositional nous of guitarists Jonny Greenwood and Ed O’Brien — from the creeping arpeggiated intro to the salvo of dead notes and power chords in the chorus.

Still, such was their resentment for the song that they went so far as to bitterly denounce it in their 1994 single “My Iron Lung” with the line: “This is our new song/Just like the last one/A total waste of time”. And by the late 1990s, Radiohead refused to play the track and were known to hurl profanities at audiences who requested it.

It must have come as some kind of perverse relief, then, when Radiohead were told that “Creep” wasn’t entirely their song at all, when they were successfully sued by The Hollies for lifting the chord progression from their 1972 classic, “The Air That I Breathe”. And in a sort of mise en abyme of plagiarism, Radiohead’s legal team displayed no sense of irony in later trying to sue singer Lana Del Rey for her 2017 song “Get Free”, which also employs the same chord sequence.

While Radiohead have spent much of the past three decades renouncing “Creep”, dozens of other artists have been only too happy to add it to their repertoire; for better — Prince’s searing eight-minute aching, electrified live rendition; or worse — Moby’s bewildering live electro-orchestral-metal mélange; or much worse — Robbie Williams’s irredeemably twee big-band cover.

Less ostentatiously, cover queen Tori Amos gave “Creep” the emotive slow piano treatment, and Irish miserabilist Damien Rice — one of the few who can match Yorke’s ability to imbue his vocals with authentic pain — turned the song into a moving acoustic lament.

Others opted to play up to the disquieting tone of the original, not least Macy Gray and Scala & Kolacny Brothers, whose respective efforts incorporated dark, ethereal elements: a gothic organ in the former, and a whole choir in the latter.

But perhaps the most bizarrely compelling cover comes courtesy of the actor and hobbying singer Jim Carrey, who performed “Creep” at an open-mic event in New York in 2011 — there aren’t many who can sell the line “I’m a creep” quite as convincingly as he does. An even stranger cover can be found online in the form of an inspired parody version that features a man singing “Creep” in the voice of Kermit the Frog with an altered chorus of “I am green”.

Not to be outdone by an impersonation of a frog puppet, Radiohead eventually yielded to their fans’ implorations and began to reinstate “Creep” in their live shows from 2016. Even the infamously saturnine Yorke couldn’t help but grin in delight while performing at Glastonbury in 2017, as thousands of revellers chanted the track’s refrain back at him. Maybe he finally felt like he belonged.

FT : Volkswagen is right to hire the devil and not his advocate

Volkswagen is right to hire the devil and not his advocate
The recruitment of a grumbling Green faces some potential bumps in the road, though

When the Vatican was wondering whether to beatify Mother Teresa of Calcutta in 2003, it called some unlikely witnesses: writers Aroup Chatterjee and Christopher Hitchens, arch-critics of the Catholic missionary.

Another reputationally challenged, cultish global institution, Volkswagen, heralded something similar last week when Herbert Diess, its chief executive, told the Financial Times he planned to recruit a young climate activist to spar with him and other senior executives about its environmental policies.

VW already has a sustainability council, populated by “renowned experts” such as the former EU commissioner for climate action and the founding director of the UN Global Compact. This group has “extensive rights of information, consultation and initiative” and wide access to senior managers. What would a single young grumbling Green add?

Actually, quite a lot, according to research that takes me back to the Vatican, initiator of the centuries-old idea of the “devil’s advocate”.

The hiring of a Greta Thunberg figure, despite its superficial attractions — no need to set aside a parking space at headquarters in Wolfsburg, for instance — faces some potential bumps in the road, though.

“Aggressive” internal challenge could speed up the VW hierarchy, Mr Diess believes, as he tries to steer a €33bn drive towards battery-powered vehicles. Yet a campaigner could also throw a spanner into the process if he or she took every opportunity to clog VW’s decision-making with single-issue objections.

At the other extreme, the climate activist could turn passive and sink comfortably into the VW bureaucracy. The carmaker still bears the wounds of the scandals of the early 2000s after the cosy working relationship between VW managers and workers — part of Germany’s famed co-determination system — went rotten. That episode raised questions about VW corporate culture that prefigured the later Dieselgate emissions cheating crisis, from which it is still recovering.

The most recent precedents for inviting critics into a German boardroom are also ill-omened. In January, Mr Diess’s counterpart at Siemens, Joe Kaeser, offered activist Luisa Neubauer a seat on the supervisory board, as he faced protests about the group’s involvement in the development of an Australian coal mine. Ms Neubauer, a leading figure in Ms Thunberg’s Fridays for Future movement, took the free publicity but unsurprisingly rejected the chance to spend days of her young life discussing compensation, succession, and the internet of things with her elders.

Appointing a spokesperson for the opposing view — or, in the modish “red teaming” approach, a whole squad of opponents — is often suggested as a way of mitigating bias and groupthink. The Catholic Church used it from the 16th century to sharpen its discussions on candidates for sainthood, and the technique does work, but only compared with no challenge at all.

Over nearly four centuries, devil’s advocacy has turned into a sort of protest cosplay, with sober consensual directors dressing up as dissenters, in part to make their colleagues feel better about decisions they are likely to take anyway. (In these febrile times, “just to play devil’s advocate for a moment” has also, incidentally, become a signal that someone round the table is about to advance their honestly held but potentially unpopular opinion, without really risking their reputation.)

Berkeley psychologist Charlan Nemeth has long been suspicious of “role-playing” dissent. She is convinced well-meaning attempts to avoid confrontation undermine the quality of problem-solving.

Her research adds some weight to Mr Diess’s idea of bringing in an “authentic dissenter” to juice up discussion of VW’s eco-initiatives. Dissent, she told me, “hits you in the face and it annoys you and it will make you mad — and it’s rough on the person doing the dissenting — but study after study shows that dissent, even when it’s wrong, stimulates that kind of thinking where the mind opens”.

As she writes in No! The Power of Disagreement in a World That Wants to Get Along, “it is when you face a dissenter who believes his position, has the courage to say so, and does so persistently that you confront the possibility that you may be wrong”.

Prof Nemeth has a few qualms about the VW plan. Employing and paying the activist may compromise his or her willingness to speak truth to power, for instance. The principle, though, is sound. It also comes with the tacit endorsement of the Vatican. The church ditched its devil’s advocate approach in time for Mother, now Saint, Teresa’s beatification — hence the invitation to critics to testify about the nun’s work — just as businesses were rolling it out everywhere.

(ZH) US Carrier Strike Group Enters Mediterranean As Syria & Turkey Move To Stat

US Carrier Strike Group Enters Mediterranean As Syria & Turkey Move To State Of War

Erdogan is urging US and NATO help to halt the Syrian-Russian offensive in Idlib, and elsewhere Libya is also turning into a full-blown major conflict involving external powers, notably also Turkey which is providing military support to Tripoli against Gen. Haftar's offensive. Turkey and Syria are currently downing each other's aircraft over Idlib province in a major escalation.
And now the Marine Traffic maritime information portal has identified along with other international reports that the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower (or "Ike") crossed through the Strait of Gibraltar and entered the Mediterranean Sea late Friday into Saturday, accompanied by multiple support ships.
So far the White House has remained cool toward pledging military support to Turkey, however, if the carrier strike group eventually moves closer to the Syrian coast this week, it could be a worrisome sign of Washington's intent to once again get involved militarily against Russia and the Syrian Army.
Social media image purportedly showing the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower entering the Mediterranean via the Strait of Gibraltar this weekend.


This also as Russia's Interfax news agency reported additional Russian warships currently en route to the eastern Mediterranean, including the frigate “Admiral Makarov” and “Admiral Grigorovich” which have consistently participated in operations off the Syrian coast.
The US carrier group's movements are ostensibly in support of a large US-European military exercise, being described as the first of its kind since the Cold War.
Nick Morse@n_morse9927

The following ships passed through the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean Sea last night

USS Dwight D. Eisenhower(CVN-69)
USS San Jacinto(CG-56)
USS James E. Williams(DDG-95)
USS Truxtun(DDG-103)
USNS Robert E. Peary(T-AKE-5)

219
11:31 PM - Feb 29, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

173 people are talking about this


The strike group's main role thus far was to clear a path through the "contested" Atlantic for a group of cargo ships en route to Europe.
Business Insider described the joint naval build-up as follows:
The Defender-Europe 2020 exercise will be the largest deployment of US-based forces to Europe in 25 years, with some 20,000 soldiers deploying from the US to join another 17,000 troops from 17 other countries.
The exercise will take place in April and May, and to get some of those soldiers and their gear to Europe, the US Military Sealift Command cargo ship USNS Benavidez, US-flagged merchant vehicle carriers MV Resolve and MV Patriot, are already sailing across the Atlantic, escorted by guided-missile cruiser USS Vella Gulf.
However, analysts are interpreting its quick entrance into Mediterranean waters after its Atlantic mission as likely in response to escalating events over Idlib.
Crucially there's also an emerging refugee crisis as Erdogan has announced Turkey has "opened the gates" on Syrian refugees fleeing Idlib and wishing to make it to Europe.
U.S European Command

✔@US_EUCOM

The @TheCVN69 Carrier Strike Group is conducting operations in @USNavyEurope to support maritime security operations in international waters alongside our Allies and partners: https://www.c6f.navy.mil/Press-Room/News/News-Display/Article/2095626/uss-dwight-d-eisenhower-operates-in-us-6th-fleet/ …

103
3:30 PM - Mar 1, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

34 people are talking about this


Last week the US Navy issued a press statement about Ike's movements and operations, noting the strike group was “conducting operations in the US 6th Fleet to support maritime security operations in international waters, alongside our allies and partners.”
On Sunday US European Command reiterated its ongoing European operations in a new statement. Vice Admiral Lisa Franchetti, commander of the Sixth Fleet, earlier underscored that “The deployment will also serve to demonstrate commitment to our allies and partners in Europe and Africa.”
But it remains unclear the extent to which Washington is willing to go to bat for its "partner" and NATO ally Turkey amid Erdogan's adventurism in northwest Syria.

(ZH) Coronavirus Was Spreading In Washington State For 6 Weeks, Infecting Up To

Coronavirus Was Spreading In Washington State For 6 Weeks, Infecting Up To 1,500, Study Finds

Last night the US got its first dose of really bad coronavirus news, when Washington State announced it was the site of the country’s first coronavirus death on Saturday, while additionally reporting that two confirmed cases of covid-2019 were confirmed at a long-term care facility in Kirkland, Washington, prompting the state to declare a state of emergency, even as President Trump issued new foreign travel warnings and restrictions on Saturday afternoon in an effort to stop the spread of the virus, while also urging calm among members of the public.
There was worse news: researchers who studied two cases in the state say that the virus may have been spreading there for weeks, suggesting the possibility that up to 1,500 people in the state may have been infected. Specifically, the researchers compared two cases to learn more about how the coronavirus spreads. The viral mutations suggest that it has been spreading in the state for close to six weeks, according to one of the scientists who compared the sequences, Trevor Bedford, an associate professor at the University of Washington.
If that is true, it could mean that 150 to 1,500 people “have either been infected and recovered or currently are infected now,” said Mike Famulare, a researcher at the Institute for Disease Modeling in Bellevue, Wash., who performed the analysis. Those cases, if they exist, have thus far been undetected.
And most problematic of all, many of those people might not yet have symptoms even if they are contagious. Dr, Famulare characterized his estimate of community cases as a “best guess, with broad uncertainty.” Another method, based on census data and estimated sampling, produced similar results, he said.


Trevor Bedford@trvrb
·
h
The team at the @seattleflustudy have sequenced the genome the #COVID19 community case reported yesterday from Snohomish County, WA, and have posted the sequence publicly to http://gisaid.org . There are some enormous implications here. 1/9
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

This case, WA2, is on a branch in the evolutionary tree that descends directly from WA1, the first reported case in the USA sampled Jan 19, also from Snohomish County, viewable here: https://nextstrain.org/ncov?f_division=Washington … 2/9

1,943
5:20 AM - Mar 1, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

757 people are talking about this


Trevor Bedford@trvrb
·
h
Replying to @trvrb @seattleflustudy
This strongly suggests that there has been cryptic transmission in Washington State for the past 6 weeks. 3/9
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

It's possible that this genetic similarity is a coincidence and these are separate introductions. However, I believe this is highly unlikely. The WA1 case had a variant at site 18060. This variant is only present in 2/59 viruses from China. 4/9

1,523
5:22 AM - Mar 1, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

390 people are talking about this


Trevor Bedford@trvrb
·
h
Replying to @trvrb @seattleflustudy
I'd assess the p-value for this coincidence at 2/59=0.03 and so is statistically significant. Additionally, these two cases are geographically proximal, both residing in Snohomish County. 5/9
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

I believe we're facing an already substantial outbreak in Washington State that was not detected until now due to narrow case definition requiring direct travel to China. 6/9

4,811
5:23 AM - Mar 1, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

2,183 people are talking about this


Trevor Bedford@trvrb
·
h
Replying to @trvrb @seattleflustudy
We will be working closely with @KCPubHealth and @WADeptHealth to investigate the full extent of the outbreak. 7/9
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

We're hoping to update soon with better estimates of the number of infections in Washington State using available data. 8/9

1,341
5:24 AM - Mar 1, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

230 people are talking about this


Trevor Bedford@trvrb
·
h
Replying to @trvrb and 3 others
Thank you to the @seattleflustudy team, and particularly to @lea_starita, for exceptionally fast turnaround from diagnostic assay at @WADeptHealth to sequenced genome. 9/9
Trevor Bedford@trvrb

An update, because I see people overly speculating on total outbreak size. Our best current expectation is a few hundred current infections. Expect more analyses tomorrow.

2,723
5:41 AM - Mar 1, 2020
Twitter Ads info and privacy

813 people are talking about this


Through Sunday, there were only 71 confirmed cases in the United States, although that is mostly a function of testing limitations; over the weekend the Food and Drug Administration announced that testing for the coronavirus would be greatly expanded in the country, a move that is expected to improve the pace of detecting infections and help identify patterns of suspected or confirmed cases. It may also result in hundreds if not thousands of new confirmed cases, and has already prompted a furious hoarding of provisions in what may be a harbinger of the panicked response that could descend upon the nation once the CDC admits there are thousands of domestic cases.

(ZH) "There's No Pollution" - NASA Satellite Images Expose China's "Production H

"There's No Pollution" - NASA Satellite Images Expose China's "Production Has Resumed" False Narrative

We first pointed out the reality of China's 'official' return to production as a false narrative two weeks ago.
The key takeaways were:
  • The start of the new year normally sees higher pollution across China due to higher coal/fuel consumption for heating and resumption of industrial production after Chinese New Year.
  • Guangzhou, Shanghai and Chengdu see a clear pattern – air pollution is only 20-50% of the historical average. This could imply that human activities such as traffic and industrial production within/close to those cities are running 50-80% below their potential capacity.


And now, thanks to satellite images published by NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA), we have further confirmation that nothing is back in China.
As The Epoch Times' Katabella Roberts writes, the images show a dramatic drop in levels of air pollution over China following the outbreak of the new coronavirus, which forced the shutdown of industry and transport.
Images taken by pollution monitoring satellites compare air quality between Jan. 1 and Jan. 20 with air quality between Feb. 10 and Feb. 25, and show a significant decrease in nitrogen dioxide (NO2), a toxic gas that gets into the air from the burning of fuel from vehicles, power plants and factories.
According to NASA scientists, the reduction in NO2 pollution was first apparent near Wuhan, which shut down transportation going into and out of the city, as well as local businesses by Jan. 23, in order to reduce the spread of the disease.
NASA said there is evidence that the change in air pollution is “at least partly related to the economic slowdown following the outbreak of coronavirus.”
“This is the first time I have seen such a dramatic drop-off over such a wide area for a specific event,” research scientist Dr. Fei Liu said.
However, scientists also noticed the reduction in the toxic gas also spread across the rest of China and coincided with the Lunar New Year celebrations in January, which they said usually sees businesses and factories close from the last week of the month to celebrate the festival.
"This year, the reduction rate is more significant than in past years and it has lasted longer," Liu said.
"I am not surprised because many cities nationwide have taken measures to minimize spread of the virus."
Additionally, researchers have not seen a rebound in NO2 after the holiday and noted that in 2020, the reduction rate is “more significant than in past years and it has lasted longer.”
Of course, we only need to look at the collapse in the PMIs to know nothing is back... yet. And hope for any v-shaped recovery should be rapidly discounted as not coming anytime soon.
On the bright side, Greta must be cheering the deadly Covid-19's spread across the world.