FT : ECB seeks to defuse row with German court over bond-buying programme

ECB seeks to defuse row with German court over bond-buying programme
Policymakers came to ‘broad agreement’ that positive effects outweighed ‘side effects’

The European Central Bank has sought to resolve its stand-off with Germany’s highest court by publishing details of how its governing council debated the question of whether its bond-buying impinged on economic and financial policy.

Laying out how council members debated the pros and cons of its monetary policy, the ECB said there was “broad agreement” that the “negative side effects had so far been clearly outweighed by the positive effects of asset purchases on the economy in the pursuit of price stability”.

But it said that “it could not be ruled out that unintended effects could increase over time and outweigh the overall positive effects,” adding that it was “important to continuously assess the effectiveness and efficiency of the monetary policy measures, their transmission channels and their benefits and costs”.

The ECB has for years published an official account of its council’s discussion three weeks after every monetary policy meeting. But this one was special because the council spent a significant chunk of the meeting discussing the benefits and pitfalls of its policies.

The move is designed to defuse the legal impasse with Germany’s constitutional court, which shocked much of Europe by ruling last month that Berlin officials and the EU’s top judges had not done enough to properly scrutinise the eurozone’s flagship bond-buying programme.

The court ordered the German government and parliament to ensure that the ECB provided a “proportionality assessment” of its bond-buying and said that if it failed to comply within three months, the Bundesbank must stop buying bonds and plan to sell the more than €500bn it holds.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to disappointing earnings/guidance
:

  • KBH -14.8%, QMCO -8.7%, NG -7%, BB -6.8%

M&A news:

  • QURE -15.8% (sells late-stage gene therapy candidate for Hemophilia B patients to CSL Behring; chatter that this deal lessens likelihood of getting acquired)

Select home builder/related names showing early weakness following KBH earnings:

  • DHI -3.8%, TMHC -3.6%, LEN -3.5%, TOL -1.9%, XHB -1.2%

Other news:

  • XERS -13.4% (stock offering)
  • KLR -13.2% (prices offering of 7,777,778 shares of its common stock at $4.50 per share)
  • EVLO -10.2% (prices offering of 12,000,000 shares of its common stock at $3.75 per share)
  • MGTA -9.5% (prices offering of 7,500,000 shares of its common stock at $8.00 per share)
  • TBIO -8.7% (commences public offering of $125 mln of its common stock),
  • NK -8.4% (prices $80.1 mln Common Stock offering)
  • BLD -4.6% (to join S&P MidCap 400)
  • CSTL -2.8% (prices offering of 2,000,000 shares of its common stock at $37.00 per share)
  • DIS -2.5% (DisneyLand park in California will remain closed and reopen at a later date; Downtown Disney district will reopen on July 9 )
  • BRP -1.7% (prices offering of 11,500,000 shares of its Class A common stock at $13.25 per share)
  • ONEM -1.7% (upsizes and prices secondary offering of 8,300,000 shares of its common stock by certain selling stockholders at $31.00 per share)
  • YNDX -1.4% (prices offering of 8,121,827 newly issued Class A shares at $49.25 per Class A share)

Analyst comments:

  • BA -4.6% (downgraded to Sell from Hold at Berenberg)
  • IQ -4.5% (downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer)
  • SEDG -2.4% (downgraded to Sell from Neutral at Goldman)
  • HPP -1.6% (downgraded to Equal-Weight from Overweight at Morgan Stanley)
  • VSLR -1.6% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to strong earnings/guidance
:

  • RAD +8.9%, DRI +3.1%, FUL +2.6%, FDS +2.6%, MKC +1.6%, ACN +1.6%

M&A news:

  • ALLY +7.5% (Ally and CardWorks agree to terminate merger)

Other news:

  • BDN +5.6% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • RPAI +5.5% (to join S&P SmallCap 600)
  • XLRN +3.4% (clinical data released)
  • MYGN +2.6% (reports that a new study published in Future Medicine demonstrates the ability of myPath Melanoma to accurately classify skin lesions ruled indeterminate by standard pathological review)
  • MRNA +2.4% (Moderna and Catalent (CTLT) announced a collaboration for large-scale, commercial fill-finish manufacturing of Moderna's mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine candidate (mRNA-1273) at Catalent's biologics facility)
  • INSM +1.7% (positive results from Phase 2 WILLOW study)

Analyst comments:

  • PDCO +2.1% (upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman)
  • AHH +0.8% (upgraded to Hold from Sell at Stifel)
  • AVAV +0.7% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Stifel)

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • RPAI +8.9%, BDN +6.1%, ALLY +5.7%, XLRN +3.4%, MKC +2.7%, FUL +2.6%, INSM +1.7%, XRAY +0.5%
  • Gapping down:
    • MGTA -15.5%, KBH -15.4%, QURE -15.2%, NK -15.2%, XERS -13.7%, KLR -11.8%, QMCO -11.4%, EVLO -10.5%, BB -8.4%, NG -8.2%, BLD -4.6%, TBIO -3.6%, CSTL -3.6%, TMHC -3.5%, LEN -2.6%, TOL -2.4%, BRP -2.3%, YNDX -1.8%, DIS -1.5%, ONEM -1.3%

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of June 2020 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Anpario Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 400 pence (+)
* Barratt Raised to Outperform at Davy; PT 628 pence
* Bayer Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 85 euros
* Centamin Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 210 pence
* Crest Nicholson Raised to Buy at Canaccord; PT 260 pence (+)
* Derwent London Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 2,800 pence
* Next Fifteen Raised to Buy at Peel Hunt (+)
* Paragon Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 460 pence
* Societa Cattolica Raised to Buy at Banca Akros (ESN) (+)
* Sunrise Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 111 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Boeing Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT $150
* Carel Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 15.80 euros (+)
* E.On Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 10 euros
* Gestamp Cut to Hold at Grupo Santander; PT 2.93 euros
* HeidelbergCement Cut to Hold at LBBW; PT 51 euros
* Hochschild Mining Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 210 pence
* InterContinental Hotels Cut to Hold at Jefferies
* Kemira Oyj Cut to Reduce at Inderes (+)
* Mondi Cut to Underweight at Prescient Securities
* MorphoSys Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 130 euros
* NetEnt Cut to Hold at Carnegie (+)
* Pagegroup Cut to Hold at Investec; PT 410 pence (+)
* Pandora Cut to Sell at Handelsbanken; PT 300 kroner
* Paradox Interactive Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 212 kronor
* PPHE Hotel Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 1,150 pence
* Rightmove Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 385 pence
* Siltronic Cut to Neutral at UBS; PT 92 euros (+)

* Virgin Money UK Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 100 pence

>>> Initiation
* Dalata Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 4.50 euros
* Fabasoft Rated New Buy at MainFirst; PT 34 euros
* Fraport Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 35 euros
* Itera Rated New Neutral at SpareBank; PT 11.50 kroner (+)
* JTC PLC Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 595 pence
* Melia Hotels Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 4.50 euros
* Parkmead Rated New Buy at Arden Partners; PT 105 pence (+)
* Provident Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT 200 pence
* Restaurant Group Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays (Earlier)
* Scandic Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT 27 kronor
* Telecom Italia Reinstated Sell at Goldman; PT 33 euro cents (+)
* WH Smith Reinstated Overweight at Barclays (Earlier)

>>> Call
* Barratt Upgraded, U.K. Housebuilder Valuations Attractive: Davy (+)
* Bayer Shares Can Now Trade on Fundamentals, Bernstein Says
* EON Cut at Jefferies on Bad Debt, Lower Energy Demand Risks (+)
* EssilorLuxottica Governance Less Relevant Than Retail: Bernstein (+)
* Jefferies Now Expects ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery for European Hotels
* Berenberg Likes Fund Administrators, Adds JTC to Midcap Picks
* Pandora Share Climb Reason to Sell, Downgraded at Handelsbanken (+)
* Rexel, Legrand Could Benefit From EU Electrification Boost: Citi
* RBC Sees Selective Opportunities Among European Gold Miners (+)

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

  • DAX:
    • Bayer (BAYN TH) +7%
      • Bayer Pays $12 Billion to Put Monsanto Liabilities Behind It (2)
    • Wirecard (WDI TH) +2.6%
    • Daimler (DAI TH) +1.2%
    • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.1%
      • BlackRock, Inc. Raises MTU Aero Voting Rights to 7.70%
    • Continental AG (CON TH) +1%
    • Allianz (ALV TH) +0.2%
    • Deutsche Post (DPW TH) +0.2%
    • Siemens (SIE TH) +0%
    • Deutsche Telekom (DTE TH) Flat
    • E.On (EOAN TH) -0.3%
      • E.On Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 10 euros
    MDAX:
    • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +27%
      • Top Lufthansa Investor Backs $10 Billion Rescue Before Vote (1)
    • Fraport (FRA TH) +2.9%
    • RTL (RRTL TH) +2.4%
    • Airbus (AIR TH) +1.9%
    • Freenet (FNTN TH) +1.2%
    • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) -0.3%
    • United Internet (UTDI TH) -0.6%
    • Varta (VAR1 TH) -0.7%
    • Uniper (UN01 TH) -0.8%
    • Siltronic (WAF TH) -3%
    SDAX:
    • Kloeckner (KCO TH) +2.7%
    • Sixt (SIX2 TH) +2.2%
    • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1.5%
      • U.S. Tariff Threat Burdens Manufacturers: EMEA Industrials Wrap
    • Deutsche PBB (PBB TH) +1.2%
    • W&W (WUW TH) +1.2%
    • Corestate (CCAP TH) +0.7%
      • Corestate Conference Call Scheduled By Baader Bank for June 25
    • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +0.4%
    • Encavis (CAP TH) Flat
    • Ceconomy (MEO TH) -0.5%
    • Steinhoff (SNH TH) -1.5%

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Lufthansa (LHA TH) +25%
    • Top Lufthansa Investor Backs $10 Billion Rescue Plan (Correct)
  • Wirecard (WDI TH) +8.9
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) +7%
    • Bayer Pays $12 Billion to Put Monsanto Liabilities Behind It (2)
  • Fraport (FRA TH) +2.9%
  • BP (BPE5 TH) +1.9%
    • Green Stimulus Could Curb EU Oil Demand by More Than 10% by 2025
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) +1.6%
  • Sanofi (SNW TH) +1.6%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) +1%
  • Airbus (AIR TH) +0.9%
  • Carl Zeiss Meditec (AFX TH) +0.8%
  • United Internet (UTDI TH) -0.8%
  • ING (INN1 TH) -0.9%
  • Total (TOTB TH) -1%
  • TeamViewer (1UD TH) -1%
  • BHP Group PLC (BIL TH) -1.2%
    • BHP Imposes Stricter Protocols in Chile as Covid-19 Cases Climb
  • Red Electrica (RE21 TH) -1.3%
  • Uniper (UN01 TH) -1.4%
    • Smarter Analyst: Uniper SE (UNPRF) was Upgraded to a Buy Rating at Kepler Capital
  • Saint-Gobain (GOB TH) -1.5%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -2.2%
    • MorphoSys Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 130 euros
  • EasyJet (EJT1 TH) -5.2%
    • EasyJet Offering Prices 59.5m Shares at GBP7.03/Share

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 25th of June 2020

>>> Up
* Barratt Raised to Outperform at Davy; PT 628 pence
* Bayer Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 85 euros
* Centamin Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 210 pence
* Derwent London Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 2,800 pence
* Paragon Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 460 pence
* Sunrise Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 111 Swiss francs

>>> Down
* Boeing Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT $150
* E.On Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 10 euros
* Gestamp Cut to Hold at Grupo Santander; PT 2.93 euros
* HeidelbergCement Cut to Hold at LBBW; PT 51 euros
* Hochschild Mining Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 210 pence
* InterContinental Hotels Cut to Hold at Jefferies
* MorphoSys Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 130 euros
* Pandora Cut to Sell at Handelsbanken; PT 300 kroner
* Paradox Interactive Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 212 kronor
* PPHE Hotel Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT 1,150 pence
* Rightmove Cut to Sell at Berenberg; PT 385 pence
* Virgin Money UK Cut to Underperform at KBW; PT 100 pence

>>> Initiation
* Dalata Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 4.50 euros
* Fabasoft Rated New Buy at MainFirst; PT 34 euros
* Fraport Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 35 euros
* JTC PLC Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 595 pence
* Melia Hotels Rated New Hold at Jefferies; PT 4.50 euros
* Provident Rated New Market Perform at KBW; PT 200 pence
* Restaurant Group Reinstated Equal-Weight at Barclays (Earlier)
* Scandic Rated New Underperform at Jefferies; PT 27 kronor
* WH Smith Reinstated Overweight at Barclays (Earlier)

>>> Call
* Bayer Shares Can Now Trade on Fundamentals, Bernstein Says
* Jefferies Now Expects ‘L-Shaped’ Recovery for European Hotels
* Berenberg Likes Fund Administrators, Adds JTC to Midcap Picks
* Rexel, Legrand Could Benefit From EU Electrification Boost: Citi

>>> What to look at today - 25th of june 2020

Asian stocks dropped and U.S. equity futures retreated as worries about a surge in virus cases in multiple U.S. states and some other countries saps appetite for riskier assets. The dollar extended gains.
Japanese, Australian and Korean shares were all down more than 1%. China and Hong Kong are closed for holidays. Futures on the S&P 500 dipped, while Treasuries edged up. The risk-off moves followed daily records for new cases in Florida and California, with Texas also suffering. New York, New Jersey and Connecticut are requiring visitors from virus hot spots to self-quarantine. Australia recorded its largest spike in cases since April. Crude oil prices fell below $38 a barrel in New York.
US After Hours ALLY +10% jumps as its merger with CardWorks is terminated; KBH -13.5% down on earnings

Nikkei -1.21% Hang Seng -0.50% CSI +0.42% Shanghai +0.30% Shenzen +0.01%

Eur$1.1251 CNH 7.0811 CNY 7.0782 JPY 107.16 GBP 1.2422 CHF 0.9488 WTI$ 37.84 -0.45%

S&P -0.35% Nasdaq -0.15% EuroStoxx +0.22% Dax +0.30% SMI -0.28% FTSE -0.40%

Macro :
- IMF Projects Deeper Global Recession on Growing Virus Threat
- U.S. Investor Bull-Bear Spread -24.8: AAII
- Citadel’s Global Stock Unit Loses About 6% After Oil Rout (1)

Keep an eye on :
- AKSO NO : Aker Solutions Gets Letter of Intent for Breidablikk
- AKER NO : Aker Biomarine Placement Prices 18.5m Shares at NOK115.85/Shr
- AZN LN : AstraZeneca: Phase 3 ETHOS Trial Results Meet Secondary Endpoint
- BAS GY : Bayer to Seek Contribution From BASF for Dicamba Settlement
- BSLN SW : Basilea to Buy Back 2022 Convertibles at 100.5% + Interest
- BAYN GY : Bayer Agrees to $10.9 Billion Plan to Settle U.S. Roundup Claims
- EZJ LN : EasyJet Share Sale to Price at 703 Pence Per Share: Terms (1)
- EUCAR FP : Europcar Mobility Group May Entertain Contacts
- G IM : Generali to Buy 24.4% of Cattolica Via EU300m Capital Increase
- ALHVS FP : Winnipeg Squeeze-Out Bid for Harvest to Run June 25-July 8: AMF
- HSW LN : Hostelworld to Offer Shrs
- IAG LN : U.K. Looks to Centralize Control of British Rail: Telegraph
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Shareholder Thiele Will Support Bailout, FAZ Reports
- MTO LN : Mitie in Talks to Buy Interserve Unit for More Than GBP250m: Sky
- RXL FP : Rexel Reimburses EU550m Senior Credit Line as Activity Improves
- SAS SS : SAS’ New Hybrid Bonds Are in Doubt After Norway Pushes Back: DI
- GLE FP : SEC Says SG Americas to Pay $3.1M to Settle Charges
- SECARE SS : SwedenCare to Offer 1.5m Shares via Pareto Securities
- SW FP : Sodexo: Reimbursement of $1.6B USPP Debt
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia to Sell Inwit Stake to Ardian Group for EU1.6b
- TRI FP : Trigano: Stephane Gigou Deputy CEO From July 1
- UTG LN : Unite Group GBP300M Share Sale Order Book Is Covered: Terms
- WDI GY : Wirecard’s Marsalek to Turn Himself in Next Week: SZ
- WDI GY : Wirecard Whistleblower Tipped Off German Regulator in Early 2019
- YNGN LN : Young & Co's to Offer Shrs