WWD : Fiber Forecast Mostly Steady for 2014

Fiber Forecast Mostly Steady for 2014

Stability in raw material prices and economic conditions around the world resulted in a rarity in the global fiber business in 2013 — a lack of volatility, leading to an outlook for more of the same in the year ahead.

Following some up and down years — memories of record-high cotton prices in excess of $2 a pound in 2011 that dragged other fibers with it are still relatively fresh, not to mention the Great Recession that preceded it — the fiber industry sees a somewhat stable environment ahead, with room for growth. But slow and somewhat tenuous economic growth in places such as the U.S. and Europe and China’s molasseslike move away from a controlled economy still weigh on key sectors, while climatic conditions are always a concern for natural fibers.

Cotton prices have risen in the last year to 81.01 cents a pound from 68.4 cents a year ago, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s daily report of U.S. spot prices. The New York March futures contract edged higher the last few weeks, rising to 84.12 cents a pound from about 77 cents a pound in late November.

Cotton Incorporated’s monthly report on market conditions noted that the largest revision to supply and demand figures was an increase in Indian ending stocks. India’s ending stock for 2012-13 increased 1 million bales, to 11 million bales. Revisions for global production and consumption and the increase to the Indian ending stock were the primary drivers behind the 692,000-bales increase to 96.4 million in the estimate for 2013-14 global ending stocks. Global production fell 382,000 bales, to 116.8 million bales, while consumption rose 50,000 bales, to 109.7 million bales.

Cotton Inc. noted that over the past two crop years, the global cotton market has been dominated by two competing forces: On one side, there were the record world-ending stocks that threatened to push prices lower, while on the other side there have been tighter-than-average stocks outside of China, which have supported global prices.

“At the center is uncertainty surrounding Chinese cotton policy and Chinese demand for cotton imports,” Cotton Inc. said. “More aggressive releases from government reserves, which would imply lower Chinese import demand, would pull world prices lower. Conversely, higher Chinese import demand implies lower stocks outside of China and continued support of world cotton prices.”

Stocks for higher-grade cotton from the U.S., and other exporting countries such as Australia, have already been reported as tight, according to Cotton Inc., while Chinese import demand for higher-grade cotton is also expected to provide support for prices for the next few months.

Gildan Activewear Inc., a major North American cotton apparel manufacturer, commenting last month in its fourth-quarter earnings report, said, “The average cost of cotton in fiscal 2014 is currently expected to be comparable to the average cost for fiscal 2013.”

Global competitiveness pressures have had an impact on certain sectors.

The Lenzing Group, considered the world’s leading producer of cellulosic fibers, saw consolidated earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization decline about 20 percent to $306.4 million in the first nine months of 2013, as sales fell about 7 percent to $1.98 billion. On the basis of the anticipated weaker fourth quarter, Lenzing revised its guidance downward slightly for the year 2013, with EBITDA of $300 million to $315 million forecast and sales of $2.6 billion expected.

Lenzing said no imminent change in the difficult business environment can be expected in the global fiber market. It said the continuing high level of cotton inventories has unfavorable effects on the entire fiber industry, noting that the International Cotton Advisory Committee expects inventories to rise an additional 2 million tons to 20.8 million tons by the end of July.

“The difficult market situation will continue in 2014 and possibly well into 2015. We will resolutely counteract this unfavorable situation and adjust our cost structures to the new circumstances as quickly as possible,” said Peter Untersperger, chief executive officer of Lenzing AG, last month in the company’s fiscal update.

Untersperger noted that Lenzing has implemented a comprehensive cost-optimization program that is aimed at saving $164 million annually through 2015. The sales and marketing organization will be strengthened as part of the current reorganization project, with a sharper focus on the important fiber markets of Asia and Turkey. Sales efforts in China especially will be expanded on the basis of additional technical experts and market development capabilities, Lenzing said.

The measures to be implemented are expected to result in savings in material costs and reductions in operating expenses and overhead. Lenzing said staff at the group’s largest production site in Lenzing, Upper Austria, will likely be downsized by up to 15 percent from the current level of about 2,600 employees. Overall, up to 600 jobs will be cut or vacant positions not filled.

In spite of the difficult market environment, Lenzing said business in the first three quarters of 2013 developed in line with expectations. The downward pressure on selling prices was partially offset by higher fiber shipment volumes, cost savings and a marketing drive for specialty fibers Lenzing Modal and Tencel.

Fiber shipment volumes in the first nine months increased to 660,000 tons due to capacity expansion, up 12 percent from the prior-year level. However, average fiber selling prices of the Lenzing Group were at 1.73 euro per kilogram, about 14 percent lower than in the previous year.

Polyester price stability has also helped keep that market strong. Market reports put average global polyester staple fiber prices at about $1.05 a pound, compared with $1.10 a year ago, while polyester filament is selling at about $1.15 a pound now, from $1.18 in December 2012.

Bill Jasper, chairman and ceo of Unifi Inc., a manufacturer of multifilament polyester and nylon textured yarns based in Greensboro, N.C., in discussing the company’s 2013 fiscal year ended June 30, said the outlook is strong for the year ahead based partially on raw material price stability.

Jasper said, “We do expect our future financial performance to benefit from our continued investment in our premier value-added capabilities; continued growth of regional, synthetic apparel production; longer-term moderation of raw materials prices, and the continued recovery of our operations in Brazil and China.”

Roger Berrier, president and chief operating officer of Unifi, said, “Fiscal 2013 was another successful year for our premier value-added yarns, particularly Repreve, our flagship product. As we near 100 percent capacity utilization of our Repreve Recycling Center in Yadkinville, N.C., the company has recently announced plans to expand both our capacity and flexibility to produce Repreve and our other premier value-added yarns.”

In a conference call with analysts, Berrier traced the year’s raw material price fluctuations.

“Prices in North America increased more sharply than expected in January and February, resulting in significant margin deterioration, as we temporarily shared in the negative impact of higher prices with our customers,” he said. “As the March quarter ended, we instituted across-the-board price increases based on the higher raw material prices in order to recover the margins lost in the March quarter. As we moved out of the March quarter, raw material prices moderated as capacity for our primary ingredients came online and became more stable.”

Berrier said the gap in polymer pricing between the U.S. and Asia was reduced to about 13 cents a pound in the year ended June 30, compared with about 14 cents a pound in the firm’s third quarter.

“Although we don’t expect much change in either raw material prices or the polymer pricing gap in our September 2013 quarter, we are anticipating more stability in raw material pricing in fiscal 2014 based on the current visibility we have on global raw material supply-demand balance,” he added.

Jasper said, “Another trend that bodes well for our business going forward is the growth in share of synthetic apparel compared to cotton apparel. In 2008, synthetic apparel had a 38 percent share of total apparel consumption in the U.S. That share is expected to be 49 percent in 2013.…Although we expect limited relief in raw material prices in the near term, we do expect to see less volatility in raw material pricing in fiscal 2014 compared to the last two years and continued moderation over time.”

In the last year, wool prices have dropped to $4.51 a pound from $5 a pound, according to the U.S. DOA. The Australian Wool Production Forecasting Committee forecast shorn wool production to be 345 million kilograms, a 1.4 percent decline, in 2013-14. The committee said the decrease reflects a 1 percent decline in sheep flocks, as farmers turn to more profitable uses of their land, and an expected slight reduction in average fleece weights due to the dry seasonal conditions experienced in many wool growing regions in the first half of 2013.

Australian Wool Innovation noted that with cashmere prices at a high level of $132 a kilogram due to tight supply, superfine merino wool prices and demand should strengthen. AWI added that signs are for a solid year ahead based on favorable currency rates, improved economic conditions in the U.S. and parts of Western Europe, a mild export lift and steady consumption growth in China.

FT : Luxury brands eye trends for 2014

The stellar growth of the luxury industry’s global groups slowed considerably in 2013, in the wake of dampening enthusiasm from Asian consumers, volatile exchange rates and a raging battle for customer loyalty in an ever more competitive marketplace.

Yet despite a chorus of caution from investors and executives, some bright spots are appearing. The Americas again became luxury’s largest growth market, fuelled by rebounding economic optimism and a roaring tourist trade. Emerging markets beyond the Brics, once underpenetrated and underestimated by the industry old guard, are providing a new wave of opportunities at home and abroad.

Here are a few themes that could define the industry’s agenda in the coming year.

M&A moves up a gear
After a year that saw LVMH buy Loro Piana and Kering buy Pomellato, analysts expect luxury M&A to step up in 2014 as conglomerates seek to offset slowing sales at mega-brands such as Louis Vuitton and Gucci.
The new year will start with the Versace family deciding on a sale of 20 per cent of their closely held company. Blackstone, CCMP and Italy’s state Fondo Strategico are in the running. Santo Versace, the Milanese brand’s non-executive chairman, has said a decision will be made by mid-January.
As in past years, Italy’s feted independent brands top analysts’ lists of potential targets. Armani, Dolce & Gabbana, Ermenegildo Zegna, Tod’s and Brunello Cucinelli are among those names being drawn up by industry watchers. In France, Chanel remains the most coveted elite brand.
Executives say Chopard, H Stern and David Yurman could be targets for LVMH, Kering or Richemont as they seek to beef up in the fast-growing jewellery industry.
However, translating interest in such family firms into a buyout is difficult unless there are succession problems and a dire need for outside capital. It took LVMH 10 years to woo Bulgari , which it eventually bought in 2011 when the family owners decided they needed outside capital to grow.
Brunello Cucinelli recently told the FT that his business is his passion and is not for sale, reflecting a widely held feeling among self-made fashion entrepreneurs.

For those brands intent on retaining their independence but wanting more capital to grow, a stock market listing is the more probable outcome. Raffaele Jerusalmi, chief executive of the Milan stock exchange, predicts a wave of listings in Italy’s fashion capital next year. After the record first day trading of Moncler in December – the Franco-Italian skiwear maker’s shares rose 50 per cent – industry insiders say more companies are taking a look at the bourse.

The great fall in China
2013 was the year the plug was pulled on luxury’s roaring run in China. According to a study released this month by Bain & Company, Chinese luxury growth over the previous 12 months slipped to just 2.5 per cent – a sharp slowdown from the 7 per cent recorded in 2012.
With a now cooling macroeconomic climate, the industry’s great fall in China looks set to continue. The government’s crackdown on ostentatious gift-giving has weighed heavily on watches and menswear sales, both of which were once important drivers of double-digit growth.
Despite significant investment by some of the world’s leading brands in glossy stores and staff training, mainland Chinese consumers continue to spend heavily outside their home nation; Bain reported that 67 per cent of all Chinese luxury purchases this year were made overseas.
The country’s overall clout in the sector is not diminishing – Greater China now accounts for a quarter of Louis Vuitton’s revenue, 35 per cent of Cartier’s, and a whopping 45 per cent of Omega’s, according to Exane BNP Paribas. But as customers develop a more sophisticated awareness of luxury, many have become more selective about the products they are buying, causing headaches for established kingpins.

LVMH was stung in its latest quarterly earnings by Chinese brand fatigue for flagship label Louis Vuitton, while Prada attributed weaker than expected third-quarter profits to “moderated growth, notably in Greater China”.
Many companies are looking to 2014 as a year of stabilisation with a conservative outlook on expansion, raising product prices and focusing on the maintenance of current retail operations. The exceptions lie on opposite ends of the market spectrum; ultra-luxe labels such as Bottega Veneta will increase their presence, as will more players from the “accessible luxury” field, such as US accessories group Coach.

America: land of the free spending
For many, the return to form of the US luxury market in 2013 was a shock, after several years flailing in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. The US remains the world’s number one nation for luxury goods consumption.
What does the new year hold for luxury?

Share your thoughts in the comment box below
An October study by Altagamma and Bain & Company said luxury spending in the Americas had risen 4 per cent this year to €69bn, boosted by brand expansion in many of the US’s largest cities, strong online sales and renewed consumer confidence.
Euromonitor International reported that the highest-grossing category was premium clothing, with Americans spending $29.5bn on apparel in the past 12 months.
Unlike their mass-market counterparts, luxury brands including Prada, Tiffany and Burberry have been reporting accelerated sales in the Americas, with many expecting continued strength over the critical 2013-14 holiday period.

“Many of these companies are providing big beats, and these results show that the upscale shopper from mature markets continues to power on globally, particularly in North America,” noted Rahul Sharma, analyst at Neev Capital.
There will be several key battlegrounds in the coming year. Some of the fiercest competition will come online, where companies will continue to compete for ecommerce market share and social media visibility as services such as Facebook and Instagram increase advertising opportunities. Discount and factory outlets will provide a healthy sales backbone for several domestic premium retailers including Coach and J Crew, especially from tourists hailing from Asia and Brazil.
The year ahead will showcase the latest round of the US department store wars. In January, former Harrods chief merchant Marigay McKee will take up her post at the helm of Saks, with a $250m refit of the flagship Fifth Avenue store first on her agenda. Meanwhile, Neiman Marcus, under new owners Ares Management, says it will invest $100m in developing “omnichannel” operations.

‘Accessible luxury’ takes a larger piece of the pie
After two decades of seeing luxury as a monolithic and highly profitable sector, many investors began realising in 2012 that a brand-by-brand approach was required. Throughout 2013, the “hi-lo” divide between the industry’s key groups became more pronounced.
High-luxe yet ubiquitous European brands such as Louis Vuitton and Gucci have struggled to maintain sales momentum in the slowing Asian market, while so-called “accessible luxury” labels – many hailing from the US – have soared to new heights. This looks set to continue.
Michael Kors – welcomed last month into the S&P 500 – has produced consistently strong global returns, though rivals including Ralph Lauren, Tory Burch and J Crew have also recorded steady growth, particularly in newer markets. These companies share a “pyramid” business model: a luxury collection at the top that rests on a base of less expensive diffusion or outlet lines providing the bulk of profits.

Particularly in recession-hit Europe, this mix has proved popular. Michael Kors’ European sales doubled in the last quarter, with comparable growth expected in 2014. These companies plan to expand their retail presence in the region next year, capitalising on the gap in the market left by traditional upmarket European brands who, as they eyed up Asia, lost the loyalty of local shoppers.
UK high street retailer Karen Millen announced it was moving into accessible luxury territory next year, while smaller brands such as rag & bone, flush with investor cash, are attracting attention from the all-powerful Asian consumer looking for new ways to present a cooler, more individualistic look than those offered by luxury’s old guard.

(BFW) Delek Group Mulls New Company for Energy Holdings to List Abroad

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Delek Group Mulls New Company for Energy Holdings to List Abroad 2013-12-31 07:40:43.84 GMT

By Shoshanna Solomon Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Co. says it plans setting up energy exploration activities in new co. that will sell shrs abroad and/or in Israel, according to emailed statement today. * Existing Delek Group shareholders will get one shr in new co. for each existing shr held * Co. to transfer to new entity all its energy exploration activities and those of its Delek Energy, Delek Drilling, Avner units, among others * Co. says move will unlock value for current shrholders, will enable foreign investors exposure to Israel’s energy market: statement * Delek Group will continue to hold its other non-energy holdings, like water desalination, Phoenix Holdings and Delek Europe, Delek Auto and Delek Fuel and others * Strategy to be implemented in 2014 subject to approvals * Co. has 3.6% weight on benchmark TA-25 Index: Bloomberg data

Link to Company News:DLEKG IT <Equity> CN <GO> Link to Company News:AVNRL IT <Equity> CN <GO> Link to Company News:DEDRL IT <Equity> CN <GO> Link to Company News:DRAL IT <Equity> CN <GO> Link to Company News:ISRAL IT <Equity> CN <GO> Link to Company News:NBL US <Equity> CN <GO> Link to Company News:RATIL IT <Equity> CN <GO>

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Shoshanna Solomon in Tel Aviv at +972-3-542-7108 or ssolomon22@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Claudia Maedler at +971-4-364-1025 or cmaedler@bloomberg.net

(BFW) Codere Control May Pass to Creditors, El Confidencial Reports

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Codere Control May Pass to Creditors, El Confidencial Reports 2013-12-31 07:39:48.347 GMT

By Sharon Smyth Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Controlling shareholders Martinez Sampedro family considering agreement to capitalize EU1.1b of debt via a capital increase, El Confidencial reports. * Accord would hand creditors 85% of company, Confidencial says * Codere cannot repay EU135m credit line to Canyon Capital Finance Sarl and CSO Capital Partners LP, Confidencial says * Sampedro family to retain 15% of shares, continue to manage Codere, Confidencial says * Confidencial cites unidentified people in financial industry it didn’t identify. * Nobody at Codere was immediately available to comment when the company was contacted by telephone today. NOTE: Link to story {http://tinyurl.com/pnybnmb}

Link to Company News:{CDR SM <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{BX US <Equity> CN <GO>} Link to Company News:{2308110Z US <Equity> CN <GO>}

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: {FIRST<GO>} First Word newswire: {NH BFW<GO>}

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Sharon Smyth at +34-91-700-9601 or ssmyth2@bloomberg.net

(BFW) De Carvalho-Heineken Buys Heineken Holding Shares, Filings Show

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De Carvalho-Heineken Buys Heineken Holding Shares, Filings Show 2013-12-31 07:22:27.13 GMT

By Martijn van der Starre Dec. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Charlene Lucille de Carvalho- Heineken increases stake in Heineken Holding to 148.3m ordinary shrs as of Dec. 27 through purchases started on Sept. 9, filings posted today on Dutch financial markets regulator AFM’s website show. * Stake amounted to 147.2m ordinary shrs as of April 29, 2011, the most recent transaction before Sept. 9 * NOTE: L’Arche Green to Increase Ownership in Heineken Holding * Overview of transactions

For Related News and Information: First Word scrolling panel: FIRST<GO> First Word newswire: NH BFW<GO>

To contact the reporter on this story: Martijn van der Starre in AMSTERDAM at +31-20-589-8507 or vanderstarre@bloomberg.net

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Mariajose Vera at +49-89-244478-803 or mvera1@bloomberg.net

(BG) Testing the ‘Apple tax’: What would it cost to build a Windows version of t

Testing the ‘Apple tax’: What would it cost to build a Windows version of the new Mac Pro?

The new Mac Pro is the most powerful and flexible computer Apple has ever created, and it’s also extremely expensive — or is it? With a price tag that can climb up around $10,000, Apple’s latest enterprise workhorse clearly isn’t cheap. For businesses with a need for all that muscle, however, is that steep price justifiable or is there a premium “Apple tax” that companies will have to pay? Shortly after the new Mac Pro was finally made available for purchase last week, one PC enthusiast set out to answer that question and in order to do so, he asked another one: How much would it cost to build a comparable Windows 8 machine?

Futurelooks editor Stephen Fung started out by configuring a nearly top-of-the-line Mac Pro on Apple’s website. He ended up with a machine that included 64 GB of RAM, a 1TB SSD, two AMD D700 graphics cards and a 2.7GHz 12-core Intel Xeon processor.

The cost of this beastly machine? $9,599.

“While there is nothing really remarkable about this list of parts, it’s the way that they are integrated that provides both pros and cons,” Fung said of the Mac Pro. “On the pro side, you have all this workstation grade hardware in a cylinder that is less than 10 inches tall and under 7 inches wide, with the power supply inside. This makes it very easy to take it on site or pack with you. So if you are in need of more power, it doesn’t come with the traditional drawbacks of a large tower like the original Mac Pros.”

He continued, “But on the list of cons is the fact that you pretty much have to purchase the system configured the way you plan to use it for its lifetime. This is because of the proprietary nature of the primary components which even include the GPUs and possibly the CPU (which looks like it is soldered in or ‘decapped’ like the previous gen). The only things that might see upgrades in the future would possibly be the memory.”

So Fung, a do-it-yourself PC specialist, set out to test the Apple tax and see just how much cheaper it would be to build a comparable machine that runs Windows. His findings might surprise you.

“After tabulating all the major component costs (plus another $99.99 US for Windows 8 Pro), we are at a total of around $11,530.54 US using today’s prices at retailers that actually stock the hardware,” he wrote. “I’m not afraid to admit that compared to the asking price of $9,599 US, the new Mac Pro seems like one heckuva deal for these components.”

The cost of Fung’s Mac Pro rival rang up at a steep 20% over Apple’s Mac Pro, and that doesn’t assign any value to the time it would take to build the machine once you have all the parts.

But what about the entry-level version of the Mac Pro? Surely a less powerful version of the rig could be matched by Windows at a more reasonable price point, right? In a follow-up to his first piece, Fung set out to see what it would cost to build the Windows equivalent of Apple’s base Mac Pro.

Again, the results were surprising.

Fung’s match to Apple’s $2,999 Mac Pro ended up costing $3,994.65 in parts, a whopping 33% more expensive than the Mac Pro. And once again, that price does not include labor. The comparison isn’t quite as direct as it was the first time around though, as Fung noted that his DIY Windows machine has slightly better specs than the Apple box, and there were some other benefits over the Mac Pro as well.

Both posts in Futurelooks’ series were interesting reads, and they’re linked below in our source section.

(BArron's) Best US Stocks for 2014

Best Stocks for 2014

Here are the 13 stocks, including Amex and J&J, most recommended by Mark Hulbert's "Honor Roll" of top advisors.

As I read the numerous stock-market forecasts that appear every year around this time, I am reminded of Warren's Buffett's classic line that one of the primary purposes of stock-market forecasters is to make fortune tellers look good.

I nevertheless am willing to at least partially suspend my skepticism when it comes to the forecasts of the advisors that rank highest on the Hulbert Financial Digest's Honor Roll of Advisors for 2014. Based on performance over the last 14 years — since the top of the market in early 2000, in fact, right before the Internet bubble burst — this Honor Roll rewards advisors less for overall returns than for performing well in both up and down markets.

So it behooves us to pay attention to what they are saying.

A dozen advisors made the grade, but only four of them offer any specific stock-market timing judgment. I list them here in alphabetical order, along with their latest stock-market forecasts:

Bob Brinker's Marketimer (Bob Brinker). Though Brinker believes that "the risk of a bear market in the near term" is not a "major concern," he does think there is the very real possibility of a short-term correction. Rather than fearing such a correction, however, he would consider it a good thing, restoring health to an otherwise overextended bull market. His stock-market timing model is calling for a 100% invested position, but he recommends that investors use a dollar-cost-averaging approach for investing new money in the stock market.

The Buyback Letter (David Fried). Fried's model portfolios on average are more than 95% invested in equities, though he is "advising subscribers to invest 75% of your normal contribution of new investable funds," keeping the remainder in cash.

Fidelity Investor (Jim Lowell). Lowell wrote in his most recent communication to clients that "against the backdrop of everything being reasonably OK, and a foreground that favors at least keeping things that way, the market can afford to act as if times are more laissez-faire than usual." He added in the most recent issue of his newsletter: "There is nothing in the numbers, data, or [investor] behavior to suggest that next year won't end on a higher note than this year." His model portfolios on average are 75% invested in equities.

InvesTech Research (Jim Stack). Stack in his most recent communication to subscribers wrote: "With the economy clearly in growth mode, we continue to give this bull market the benefit of the doubt and are maintaining our current 82% [invested] position in the Model Portfolio." He adds that, while he is concerned about high levels of bullish enthusiasm on Wall Street, "it would be a mistake to take a negative stance just to be contrarian."

The bottom line? An average of 88% of these advisors' model portfolios is allocated to equities.

To put this in context, consider that these four advisors' average equity-invested percentage one year ago was 86%. So, on balance, they today are just as bullish, if not slightly more so, than they were a year ago.

You could be concerned by the similarity of the year-ago consensus to what these advisors are saying today. Might it be that these advisors are always bullish?

No.

After all, these advisors were selected precisely because they produced above-average performance in both up and down markets. They wouldn't make the Honor Roll if they were merely bullish stopped clocks.

Would you have sidestepped the 2008-2009 bear market had you followed the Honor Roll advisors? Not completely, though they on balance were less bullish than they are today.

Consider first the advisors who made it onto the Honor Roll that I constructed in December 2007. (This isn't a hypothetical question, by the way: I have been constructing my Honor Roll every December for the last 15 years.) Of the three of these advisors who provided specific stock-market timing allocation advice, one was outright bearish, one was "cautiously optimistic," and the third was outright bullish.

With the benefit of hindsight, of course, we can see that these Honor Roll advisors should have been a lot more bearish at the end of 2007. Even so, however, notice that they on balance were less bullish than the advisors who today have made it onto my Honor Roll — none of whom is currently bearish. That should tell us something.

You may also be curious how the advisors on my current Honor Roll performed in 2008. (Note carefully that this is a different question, since the current group of Honor Roll advisors is different than in late 2007.) It turns out that one of the four current Honor Roll inductees was bearish that year. Once again, not a perfect score. But notice that they on balance were less optimistic than they are today.

Weren't there any advisors who turned bearish in advance of the 2008 bear market? Sadly, there were very, very few. And following their market timing advice is not the answer, since almost all of them were also bearish during the bull markets before and since. Sidestepping that bear market came at a very steep price: missing many opportunities.

That's why my Honor Roll includes only those advisors whose performances are above average in both up and down markets.

What stocks are being recommended by these advisors heading into 2014? The following is a list of all issues that are currently recommended by three or more of the advisors on my Honor Roll (including the eight who focus on stock or fund selection and don't offer a specific stock-market allocation). Since there are only 12 advisors total, it represents a fairly strong consensus that each of these stocks is recommended by at least three of them — or one out of every four, on average.

• Abbott Labs (ticker: ABT)
• American Express (AXP)
• Automatic Data Processing (ADP)
•Berkshire Hathaway ( BRKA / BRKB )
• Disney (DIS)
• GAP (GPS)
• Johnson & Johnson (JNJ)
• McKesson (MCK)
• Paychex (PAYX)
• PepsiCo (PEP)
• Pfizer (PFE)
• Philip Morris Int'l (PM)
• Union Pacific (UNP)

>>> What to look at today

US Market ends Flat in low volume (452mil shares traded), The discretionary sector was the only area of strength among cyclical groups. The materials sector (+0.04%) eked out a slight gain, but had a limited impact
on the broader market due to its small size. Meanwhile, the two top-weighted sectors—financials (-0.1%) and technology (-0.1%)—posted modest losses, Energy -0.8% while crude oil fell1.1% to $99.20 per barril
TWTR was down 3.24% againb in heavy volume (55.5mil shares)...VIX @13.53 +8.59%...PBoC pledges to continue "prudent" monetary policy with "appropriate" liquidity levels, but returns to the sidelines in terms of open market operations after injecting liquidity for the first time in December last week. 1-w Shibor rates rise for the first time in 6 sessions...Nikkei +0.69%...Shanghai +0.87%

Eur$ 1.3792 S&P Fut +0.01% European Fut +0.03%

Closed : Austria, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Norway, Russia, Sweeden, Switzerland
Half Day : Belgium, France, Netherlands, Portugal, South Africa, Spain, UK

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