NY Post : Cohen’s on the plate

The talk in baseball land is that billionaire hedge-fund trader Steve Cohen still needs to convince some MLB owners to approve his $2.4 billion purchase of the Mets.

But thanks to Ron Rosa, the owner of the swanky Polpo Restaurant in Greenwich, he appears to have secured at least one of those votes over dinner a couple of weeks ago.

Rosa was escorting Cohen to his table when he happened to notice investor and LA Dodgers co-owner Todd Boehly sitting nearby. So he introduced the two, who hit it off. “Steve needs the owners to approve so I thought I would make the intro,” Rosa told me.

Cohen, of course has caused controversy in baseball circles with his Mets bid because some people at his firm have been charged with insider trading. (Cohen himself was never charged.) He needs 23 of the 29 baseball owners to approve his purchase, and as I have reported, he appears to have the votes.

His hedge fund, Point72 Asset Management, and Boehly’s Eldridge Industries investment firm are both located in Greenwich, and they are regular patrons of the popular eatery. Also in attendance was Judge Judy Sheindlin, who spoke with both men, though it’s unclear how much she helped Cohen’s cause.

Press officials for Boehly and Cohen declined to comment. A Sheindlin rep confirmed she was in attendance and said hello.

NY Post : Wall Street layoffs a matter of when, not if, sources say

Wall Street layoffs a matter of when, not if, sources say

With the markets near all-time highs, IPOs boom­ing and dealmaking such as Morgan Stanley’s purchase of Eaton Vance picking up, it would seem like layoffs would be the last thing that big banks and investment houses are weighing.

But those who run Wall Street never let a serious crisis go to waste. Cutting jobs is exactly what every major firm is looking at as the pandemic continues to ravage the US economy.

Of course, the big banks aren’t bragging about firing employees, many of whom live and work in New York City and the surrounding area. Overall, the financial sector employs around 500,000 people here, meaning these cuts, if and when they come, will make balancing the city’s pandemic-stricken budget even more difficult.

Good thing for our inept New York leadership that Wall Street has largely taken a pledge to delay any significant job cuts because of COVID-19 dis­locations. Goldman Sachs has been somewhat of an outlier, but the firm normally cuts underperformers toward the end of the year, as it announced a couple of weeks ago.

But for most of the banks, there’s simply no need to wield the ax just yet. While large swaths of American businesses have been decimated by the pandemic and the lockdowns that followed, Wall Street has been the prime beneficiary of the biggest stimulus plan ever enacted thanks to the Federal Reserve and its various methods of providing “liquidity” to the economy.

Liquidity is a fancy way of saying free money, so when the Fed prints it through its manifold monetary policy methods, the banks get first crack at the cash before it filters down to small businesses in the form of lower interest rates.

So while a mom-and-pop store on Main Street has to wait for liquidity to filter down in the form of cheap loans (or the so-called PPP COVID-loan program), the big banks remain open for business — and then some.

With interest rates at zero, they began borrowing cheaply, trading commodities, and providing advice on mergers, acquisitions and IPOs, which is exactly why bank profits are up while stores on Main Street remain shuttered.

But the good times won’t last forever, senior executives at the big banks tell me, and that’s why their bean-counters, as they slowly filter back to their Manhattan offices, are starting to look at what’s euphemistically known as “headcount.”

How much they will cut is open for debate. Veteran banking analyst Dick Bove told Lydia Moynihan at Fox Business that he expects the cuts to be significant. Bove says that Fed pandemic relief for Wall Street papered over trends that will eventually cause the firms to cut staffing because they simply don’t need as many bodies.

“I can see a 20 percent to 30 percent decrease in jobs over the next couple of years probably beginning” later this year, Bove said. “This is a long-term issue but the coronavirus didn’t help.”

He points to several trends, including how many companies are eschewing the public-offering process for “direct list­ings” that will lead to fewer IPOs and fewer bankers to complete deals.

Senior executives with whom I spoke at the big banks wouldn’t go as far as Bove’s estimate, but they also wouldn’t discount it either.

After taking earnings hits during the early days of the pandemic, firms like Goldman and JPMorgan are seeing a recent surge in revenue from trading and investment banking thanks to the Fed’s actions. But they concede Fed assistance will only last so long, and that without a complete reopening of the US economy, more businesses will close and loan volume will plummet, thus cutting into earnings and forcing layoffs.

Moreover, if Joe Biden is elected with a Congress controlled by Democrats, the regulatory environment will change, meaning possibly fewer deals and mergers because of height­ened antitrust scrutiny and, yes, fewer bankers completing those deals.

“Let’s just say when it comes to layoffs, we’re in a wait-and-see mode,” said one senior executive at a major bank, looking to put the best possible spin on a difficult job outlook.

In other words, Wall Street job cuts are coming — it’s just a matter of time and magnitude.

9to5 : Apple on EU ‘hit list’ of tech companies to be more tightly regulated

Apple is reported to be on an EU ‘hit list’ of tech companies set to be subjected to much tighter regulation due to their market dominance.
The list is said to include up to 20 tech giants, among them Amazon, Facebook, and Google …


The Financial Times reports.


[The list is] likely to include Silicon Valley giants such as Facebook and Apple, that will be subject to new and far more stringent rules aimed at curbing their market power.
Under the plans, large platforms that find themselves on the list will have to comply with tougher regulation than smaller competitors, according to people familiar with the discussions, including new rules that will force them to share data with rivals and an obligation to be more transparent on how they gather information.
The list will be compiled based on a number of criteria, including market share of revenues and number of users, meaning the likes of Facebook and Google are likely to be included. Those deemed to be so powerful that rivals cannot trade without using their platforms could also be added.


One anonymous source cited by the FT said a shorthand description of these companies would be those considered ‘too big to care’ about antitrust action, able to pay fines without impacting their businesses. It says that the ultimate sanction needs to be the ability to break up the companies, for example, forcing Apple to spin off the App Store as a completely separate business.


One particular focus is said to be on so-called ‘gatekeeper’ companies, which have the power to decide to keep competitors off their platforms or to impose conditions with make it harder for them to compete. Spotify, for example, claims that Apple does this because Apple Music users can subscribe from within the app at the end of a free trial. Spotify users, in contrast, cannot do so without Apple taking a cut – and the very slim margins in streaming music would be this completely unaffordable. If the App Store were a separate business, Apple Music would either have to pay the same 30% commission, or the app business would need to remove the commission for all streaming music apps.


The EU also wants to ensure that companies like Apple don’t have an unfair advantage by having access to data on the popularity of apps which is not available to the rest of the market.


As part of the powers, the EU is seeking to go beyond just fines, which often are seen as just the cost of doing business. Instead, Brussels wants to be able to move quickly to force the likes of […] Apple to ensure they give access to competitors and that they share data with rivals.


While Europe takes a tougher line on competition than the US, a congressional antitrust report also concluded that the App Store gives Apple ‘monopoly power’ over iOS apps, and contains proposals to force the break-up of tech giants.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down

Other news:

  • ATXI -54.7% (announced it has received a Complete Response Letter from the FDA regarding the Company's New Drug Application for IV tramadol)
  • PCG -7% (files an electric incident report with the California Public Utilities Commission)
  • FOLD -6.2% (reports interim clinical data for CLN6 Batten disease gene therapy)
  • IMGN -2.5% (raises $54.8 million in gross proceeds through its at-the-market facility)
  • VXX -1.9% (trading lower in tandem with strength in US futures)

Analyst comments:

  • GME -3.3% (downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies)
  • XLNX -1.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Robert W. Baird)
  • TRV -1.5% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • PING -0.8% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Mizuho)
  • ANET -0.7% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)
  • UAL -0.5% (downgraded to Equal Weight from Overweight at Barclays)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up

M&A news:

  • ATV +32.7% (enters merger agreement for going private transaction for $21.00 per ADS)
  • LMPX +20.3% (LMP Automotive to acquire a 70% Interest in New York's largest franchise dealership group)
  • DOYU+14.3% (HUYA (HUYA) and DouYu (DOYU) enter stock-for-stock merger agreement)
  • TWLO +6.9% (acquires Segment for approximately $3.2 billion in Twilio Class A common stock, on a fully diluted and cash free, debt free basis)

Other news:

  • LIZI +61.1% (has been selected into first 10 Guangdong-based online audiovisual companies to participate in a local government-backed pilot program)
  • ALKS +12.7% (announces positive voting outcomes from FDA committee meetings)
  • EYEN +9.7% (Eyenovia and Bausch Health Companies (BHC) reach licensing agreement for Eyenovia's investigational treatment for the reduction of pediatric myopia progression in children)
  • AKBA +8.7% (to Present Global Phase 3 Vadadustat Data at American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week 2020 Reimagined)
  • ALT +3.5% (Altimmune and UAB report publication of pre-clinical data for AdCOVID intranasal COVID-19 vaccine candidate)
  • RTRX +3.2% (announces presentation of abstracts at ASN Kidney Week 2020 Reimagined)
  • AAPL +3.2% (co is starting to use its retail stores as distribution centers for shipping products to consumers, according to Bloomberg)
  • CEIX +2.6% (provided an update on several transactions that were executed during the last several months)
  • APAM +1.9% (provides Sep AUM data)
  • VEEV +1.7% (provides highlights ahead of Veeva R&D and Quality Summit October 13-14, 2020)
  • BHC +1.2% (Eyenovia and Bausch Health Companies (BHC) reach licensing agreement for Eyenovia's investigational treatment for the reduction of pediatric myopia progression in children)
  • TAK +1.1% (reports safety and efficacy data for subcutaneous Entyvio)

Analyst comments:

  • TAST +5.4% (upgraded to Outperform from Mkt Perform at Raymond James)
  • TWTR +4.6% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at Deutsche Bank)
  • DKNG +3% (initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse)
  • IP +2.6% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
  • WRK +2.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
  • PEP +1.6% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup)
  • PKG +1.1% (upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at BMO Capital Markets)
  • CB +1% (upgraded to Overweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • F +1% (upgraded to Buy from Hold at The Benchmark Company)

PSA, BMW Among Carmakers Seen Avoiding European Emissions Fines

By Stefan Nicola and Oliver Sachgau

PSA, BMW Among Carmakers Seen Avoiding European Emissions Fines Study says sales of battery-powered cars tripled in first half
Daimler, VW, Jaguar lag behind on CO2, Fiat relying on Tesla
PSA Group and Volvo Cars, along with BMW AG and Renault SA are among carmakers on track to meet European Union emissions rules after sales of battery-powered vehicles tripled during the first half, according to a study.

The surge in electric-vehicle sales helped cut average carbon-dioxide emissions of new cars registered in Europe by 9% to 111 grams per kilometer, the steepest drop in more than a decade, according to a report by researcher Transport & Environment.


“Electric-car sales are booming thanks to EU emissions standards,” Julia Poliscanova, a director at the Brussels-based group, said in a statement. “Next year, one in every seven cars sold in Europe will be a plug-in.”


The EU rules taking effect this year force manufacturers to reduce the average emissions of all the cars they sell in the region to 95 grams of CO2 per kilometer or face hefty fines. As a result, companies are accelerating deployment of a range of new plug-in hybrid and fully-electric models, while at the same time countries including France, Italy and Germany have boosted consumer incentives toward their purchase.

Laggards
In the latest move, France will add a 1,000-euro ($1,181) bonus toward the purchase of used electric cars, Transport Minister Jean-Baptiste Djebbari said in an interview in Le Parisien published Sunday.

Not all carmakers are on track to avoid the fines, according to the study, with Mercedes-Benz maker Daimler AG, Jaguar Land Rover Automotive Plc and Volkswagen AG lagging behind due to sales of less-efficient gasoline cars and SUVs.

Fiat Chrysler Automobiles NV will meet the EU targets this year and next due to an agreement it has with electric-car maker Tesla Inc. that will offset its emissions, the study said. Without the deal, the company could have been on the hook for a 1 billion-euro penalty.

“FCA has been a clear laggard for electrification due to underinvestment and thus fully relies on its pooling agreement with Tesla to comply,” Transport & Environment said.


European regulators granted some leeway to manufacturers this year. The cleanest cars were allowed to be counted twice, and companies can pool their fleets together as Fiat and Tesla are doing. And just 95% of all sales in the region are measured, meaning manufacturers can cut out at least a portion of their most-polluting models. Next year, all sales will count..

The total number of electric cars sold in Europe is expected to double to about 1 million this year and reach 1.8 million in 2021, the study said.
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WSJ : Santander Bond Surges as Investors Take a Risky Bet on Debt Redemption

Santander Bond Surges as Investors Take a Risky Bet on Debt Redemption
A 16 year-old bond rallied 18% on Oct. 7, fueled by speculation that the bank may redeem the securities to avoid failing to make a coupon payment.

Investors are betting Spanish lender Banco Santander SA SAN -1.49% won’t be able to make interest payments on a risky form of bank debt. In a strange twist of events, instead of shunning the debt, investors are scooping it up.

It isn’t that the bank can’t afford to pay the interest. It is that the securities don’t allow Santander to pay the coupon if it doesn’t turn a profit this year, which it isn’t expected to do. Investors are speculating that Santander will save its reputation by redeeming the securities instead of missing the coupon payments.

That bet sent the price of the securities surging 18% on Oct. 7. It closed at 91.21 cents on the euro that day, up from 77.36 cents a day earlier. On Monday, it was still trading at 91.99 cents.

“This is one of the weirdest things I’ve ever seen in markets: it is one for the history books,” said Jerôme Legras, managing partner of Axiom Alternative Investments, which has a focus on bank capital. “Usually, a bond price will fall if a bank is perceived to have issues with paying. But in this case, it rose.”

What triggered the bet was a note from Fitch Ratings on Wednesday forecasting that the Spanish lender won’t be able to make the coupon payments. Fitch cut the ratings on the securities to CCC, one of its lowest tiers, suggesting that a default is imminent.

The securities don’t currently pay a coupon. They offer a floating rate: The coupon is reset every six months and pays 0.05 percentage points over the 10-year euro swap rate that the debt is linked to. Many of these benchmark rates have in recent years gone subzero due to the European Central Bank’s quantitative-easing programs. The coupon on Santander’s bond is currently minus 0.18%, which effectively means the bank doesn’t have to pay anything to the holders.

Even if that rate goes positive, Santander doesn’t have to pay the coupon until it posts an annual profit again. And the bank could simply opt not to redeem the securities when it does owe a payment, which would likely send the securities’ price back down.

Santander declined to comment.

This risky bet by investors shows how complex financial engineering can create unforeseen consequences for banks and their investors.

“There are still a number of old bonds which were issued at a time when nobody was even contemplating negative base rates,” said Charles Poole-Warren, a capital-markets partner at law firm Allen & Overy. “But this could change in the future if it rises above zero again.

A range of rates have turned negative across Europe after central banks flooded financial markets with cheap money. That has sharply subdued the yields on the safest types of debt, including government bonds and investment-grade corporate debt. Investors are getting increasingly pushed into risky corners of the market in search of better returns.

In this case, investors know the risks they are taking. In February 2019 Santander took markets by surprise when it said it wouldn’t redeem €1.5 billion, equivalent to $1.33 billion, of its so-called additional tier 1 bond, or AT1 debt. Until then, issuers had always redeemed the securities—typically by their first so-called call date—as a courtesy to investors seeking the option to sell some of the debt.


AT1 debt is considered particularly high risk because it has a perpetual maturity, leaving issuers free not to ever repay bondholders. The Santander debt that investors are betting on now also has perpetual maturity.

The bank raised €300 million in 2004 from the sale of the debt. The spread, or extra yield over the benchmark swap rate that the securities offered to investors tightened to 0.283 percentage points on Wednesday.

The debt’s preferred status means that holders have special rights: Unless their coupons are paid, Santander can’t pay dividends. The ECB has also asked commercial lenders in the eurozone to freeze dividends and share buybacks to conserve cash during the pandemic.

In July, Santander’s Chairman Ana Botin said Santander is committed to paying a dividend as soon as market conditions “normalize.”

The prospectus for the bond offering states that the bank can’t pay a coupon to holders unless it has sufficient “distributable profits,” meaning that it has to book a net profit for the fiscal year.

Santander reported a second-quarter loss of €11.3 billion. Its third-quarter results, due to be released on Oct. 27, will be closely scrutinized by bondholders.

The bank won’t generate sufficient profit in the second half of the year to offset this loss, Cristina Torrella Fajas, an analyst at Fitch, wrote in the Oct. 7 report. That would make it Santander’s first annual net loss in its 163-year history.

“Calling the bond seems to be the only solution at the moment,” said Artaud Caloni, a credit portfolio manager at Meeschaert Asset Management, which holds this bond. Santander could also be back in the black by the end of the year, “meaning the bonds would be performing again. This would also be a solution, but it’s not likely at the moment.”

FT : When crypto exchanges decentralise

Earlier this month, the Department of Justice brought criminal charges against the founders of the Seychelles-based crypto exchange BitMEX.

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also brought civil charges against the founders and five other entities behind BitMEX for failing to register with the agency and for not implementing AML procedures. The founders were also accused of running an internal trading desk on a conflicted basis.

Readers may recall BitMEX’s chief executive Arthur Hayes had engaged in a fiery debate with economist Nouriel Roubini. Dubbed “the tangle in Taipei”, the conversation saw Roubini throw a slew of contentious accusations at the company, among them that the exchange openly targeted “degenerate gamblers” and brazenly disrespected accredited investor rules and KYC/AML by operating out of the light-touch jurisdiction of the Seychelles.

Representatives from HDR Global Trading Limited, a BitMEX-related company, have responded that the company plans to vigorously defend itself, describing the charges as heavy-handed.

Nonetheless, for now at least, it looks like Roubini’s perspective has the edge over the BitMEX one.

As the case continues another important aspect of the story may come into play: how the case bares on the evolution of decentralised crypto exchanges.

BitMEX stood out as one of the last major exchanges (at least with any significant liquidity) where traders could engage in trading almost entirely anonymously. Even as recently as the beginning of this year, all a user needed to open a BitMEX account was an email and 2-factor verification instrument.

In theory, that meant anyone submitting trades into and out of BitMEX from jurisdictions where KYC and AML rules applied was being serviced illegally by BitMEX.

Sources close to BitMEX told FT Alphaville last year that the company believed that as long as they blocked users with IPs from contentious jurisdictions, especially America, they would remain compliant.

But as FT Alphaville understands it, the authorities believe contentious markets remained a major source of revenues, especially in terms of fees, and that the company hinted strongly to users that the use of VPNs would get around its own systems.

The latest US actions (which can be read in full here and here), thus apply a death knell for the crypto exchange model that services clients anonymously in KYC/AML-obliging jurisdictions (ie most of the world).

This is important, because it means customer-facing crypto services in places like the United States are entirely pulled into the regulatory net of the core system, ensuring there is very little advantage in using crypto over traditional financial services

Never ready to give up, however, this has shifted the crypto community’s focus to the creation and propagation of so-called decentralised exchanges instead. The problem is that the industry is still unwilling to acknowledge the fact that a decentralised exchange is a contradiction in terms and is thus no substitute for operations like BitMEX.

That doesn’t mean, however, that they’re not going to try.

In industry eyes, matching-software that can be downloaded and used to bring counterparties together constitutes a tool rather than a service. Accordingly, the same requirements about financial disclosure, KYC and AML do not apply, not least because there is no central body governing or intermediating the sums of cash that pass through a system.

Undeniably, there are some advantages of using such software relative to trusting in conventional off-grid exchanges. Chief among them is the elimination of the risk that a third party exchange, such as BitMEX, uses a proprietary trading desk — with superior information about customer flows — to trade against its own users.

As the CFTC complaint notes, this was a point of contention with respect to BitMEX:

BitMEX acts as the counterparty to certain transactions on its platform, such as through its internal “market-making” desk, or through the BitMEX “Liquidation Engine” that can assume a customer’s position under certain circumstances.

And:

BitMEX has failed to establish rules to minimise conflicts of interest. This is apparent because Hayes, Delo, Reed, and numerous other BitMEX employees trade on the platform, and BitMEX’s own internal “market-making” desk has at times been one of the largest traders on the platform.

Such conflicts remain possible with all centralised exchanges, dark pools and market-making operations. Without proper oversight, there will always be a risk, if not a temptation, to trade against one’s own clients. As will the temptation to run conflicting market-making operations. The core financial system itself is not immune to this problem but the risk is all the greater if the exchange is also the manager and controller of any escrow funds, and operating offshore.

A decentralised system, in theory, eliminates that problem. But the flipside of that reality is that there is no guaranteed liquidity on any such system and no protection against flaking counterparties or worse. There are simply no guarantees at all. And while reputation scoring can help, over time it becomes an expense in its own right, since it becomes entirely impossible to verify all counterparties at any significant scale or pace independently. All of which knocks liquidity and increases the theoretical discount that needs to be applied to any cryptocurrency that cannot be cashed-out in the realms of the regulated system.

In the long run, customers (even fraudulent ones) will realise that all the structure really does is outsource the job of KYC and AML screening to users directly. If crypto users are smart, they will realise this will never be as cost efficient as institutions doing KYC on users’ behalf.

It’s at this point, all those involved would do well to look into why such things as pirate’s code and honour among thieves have always existed. Trust is not optional. If you want the benefits of a scaled system, you need institutional trust to intermediate it. That applies as much to black-market transactions as it does to cleared ones.