FT : Risky oil companies snap up $20bn in junk bond record

Risky oil companies snap up $20bn in junk bond record
Recovery from pandemic fires up oil prices and pulls producers back from the brink

Lowly rated US energy companies that struggled for survival last year are finding renewed optimism among investors after a surge in oil prices, helping them raise a record amount of debt to fend off bankruptcy.

Energy and power companies tracked by Refinitiv have raised more than $20bn in the high-yield bond market so far this year, an all-time record for data going back to 1996.

A four-month-long rally in crude prices stalled last week, but Brent, the international benchmark, remains above $60 a barrel, up over 60 per cent since the start of November. This rally, fuelled by vaccine rollouts and record Opec oil production cuts, has prompted a change in sentiment among debt investors who had shunned many energy companies last year.

“At these levels a lot of companies can hedge future production and survive,” said John Dixon, a high-yield bond trader at Dinosaur Financial Group. “It’s the oil-linked names in high yield that have been among the best performers recently.”

Last year’s oil crash — which briefly pulled US prices below zero — caused deep distress in the American energy business, where operators slashed planned spending, sacked tens of thousands of workers, and even shut down some wells.

Haynes and Boone, a law firm, said more than 100 US oil and gas producers and services companies went bankrupt last year, accounting for more than $108bn in debt.

Among them was Chesapeake Energy, a pioneer of the shale revolution, whose collapse symbolised the crisis for an industry that blew through around $400bn of external capital during a decade-long drilling boom that made the US the world’s biggest oil and gas producer.

At the start of February this year, Chesapeake raised two bonds to fund its emergence from bankruptcy, worth a combined $1bn, both with coupons under 6 per cent. It has been joined by higher rated Murphy Oil and Diamondback Energy, which have both issued debt in March.

Even lower-rated energy companies have been able to raise cash. CGG, which produces imaging software for use in oil exploration and carries one of the lowest ratings of triple-C plus, raised $500m last week at a coupon of 8.75 per cent. Similarly lowly rated Shelf Drilling, a rig provider to shallow-water drillers, raised $310m at a coupon of 8.875 per cent.

Renewed optimism has also helped drag the value of existing bonds back from the brink. Offshore drilling company Transocean’s seven-year bond raised last year has risen to 87 cents on the dollar from as low as 31 cents in October.

At its emergence from bankruptcy in February, Chesapeake joined other shale operators in saying a new era of slower production growth was under way and producers would now prioritise shareholder returns and debt repayment in a bid to prise open capital markets again.

Rystad Energy, a research company, said more than $170bn worth of shale company debt was scheduled to mature over the next five years, and another $90bn after.

Some investors have urged caution, noting a longer-term shift towards more renewable energy sources.

“Traditional energy companies are trying to get through by greenwashing and telling people they are not that bad or that they are getting better,” said John McClain, a portfolio manager at Diamond Hill Capital management. “From our perspective it does not make sense to buy in until we see concrete change.”

In January, S&P Global Ratings cited an accelerating energy transition to clean fuels as it increased its oil and gas industry risk assessment to “moderately high” from intermediate.

“It makes sense that energy issuers would try to tap into a robust high yield market, especially given the revival in oil prices,” said Matt Eagan, a portfolio manager at Loomis Sayles. “I guess, hope springs eternal in the energy sector; however, ESG trends do not bode well for the sector longer term.”

FT : Investors inject almost $170bn into global stocks in 4 weeks

Investors inject almost $170bn into global stocks in 4 weeks
Surge comes as world economic outlook improves and US launches vast stimulus effort


Investors have poured almost $170bn into equity funds over the past month in the latest sign of how the brightening economic outlook and relentless stimulus measures have provided a sustained boost for stocks.

Funds that buy shares recorded $68.3bn in net inflows in the week to last Wednesday, the largest amount on record, according to data compiled by research group EPFR. This brought the total over the past four weeks to $168bn, Goldman Sachs said.

The surge last week, which was the most pronounced in US stocks, came as the US government began distributing the stimulus payments that were part of Joe Biden’s $1.9tn relief package.

“These payments may be making their way in to mutual funds and [exchange traded funds] as well as other assets,” Goldman Sachs analysts said.

International investors have also bought US stocks, with UK brokerage Hargreaves Lansdown noting last week that it had seen “elevated volumes of share dealing since the end of January with an increased proportion of these directed towards international equities, driven by interest in US stocks from existing clients”.

Last week’s rush of inflows also came after the Federal Reserve lifted its outlook for the world’s biggest economy and said it expected to hold interest rates at historically-low levels until at least 2024.

“We are in [the] midst of [the] strongest macro data of our lives,” analysts at BofA wrote, referring to economic indicators that showed the US and China were recovering rapidly from the pandemic.

The brightening outlook lifted the blue-chip S&P 500 to a record high on Wednesday, the day of the rate decision. However, US stocks wobbled later in the week in response to a tumble in the bond market triggered by rising angst that rapid growth will fuel a boom in inflation that potentially calls time early on monetary stimulus measures.

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 22nd of March 2021

>>> Up
* ASML Raised to Outperform at Cowen; PT 550 euros
* Deutz Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 7.70 euros
* Elisa Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 65 euros
* Kojamo Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 20 euros
* Lenzing PT Raised to 149 euros from 123 euros at Baader Helvea
* Lloyds Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 51 pence
* Richemont Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 116 Swiss francs
* Softcat Raised to Neutral at Citi; PT 1,600 pence
* Swatch Raised to Outperform at Bernstein; PT 353 Swiss francs
* Talanx Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 45 euros
* Travis Perkins Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 2,000 pence
* VW Raised to Add at AlphaValue

>>> Down
* Boliden Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 385 kronor
* IAG Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 220 pence
* Central Asia Metals Cut to Sector Perform at RBC; PT 310 pence
* Mayr-Melnhof Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 190 euros
* Plastic Omnium Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 38 euros
* Telenor Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 167 kroner
* Telia Cut to Neutral at Goldman; PT 40 kronor
* Virgin Money UK Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 180 pence
* Wallenstam Cut to Underweight at Barclays; PT 120 kronor

>>> Initiation
* Arctic Bioscience Rated New Buy at ABG; PT 57 kroner
* Catena Rated New Buy at Handelsbanken; PT 460 kronor
* CompuGroup Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 66 euros
* Foresight Group Rated New Buy at Jefferies; PT 520 pence
* Helios Towers Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 203 pence
* Novartis Rated New Market Perform at Bernstein
* NP3 Fastigheter Rated New Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 140 kronor
* Sagax Rated New Hold at Handelsbanken; PT 195 kronor
* Stendorren Fastigheter Rated New Buy at Handelsbanken

>>> Call
* ASML Upgraded at Cowen on Improving EUV Momentum From Next Year
* CompuGroup Needs Innovation to Boost Growth: Morgan Stanley
* Helios Towers Gets Another Buy as Berenberg Sees Strong Growth
* Softcat Can Sustain Premium Valuation, Upgrade to Neutral: Citi
* Stendorren and Catena Favored in Industrial Real Estate: SHB
* Richemont, Swatch Upgraded at Bernstein on Scope For Rebound

>>> What to look at today - 22nd of March 2021

 Asian stocks fluctuated and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed as investors responded to a pullback in Treasury yields at the start of the week. Turkey’s lira tumbled after the President ousted the central bank governor.
S&P 500 futures swung between red and green, and MSCI Inc.’s Asia Pacific gauge pared losses. Shares rose in China and Australia, while Japan underperformed.
The Turkish lira slumped as much as 15% in Asian trade after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan removed the country’s third central bank chief in less than two years, two days after a larger-than-expected rate hike. Turkey will continue to stick to free markets and a liberal foreign-exchange regime, Treasury said. The dollar advanced against most Group-of-10 currencies.
A heavy slate of Treasury auctions this week poses a potential catalyst for a renewed rise in bond yields. The 10-year benchmark subsided Monday to 1.68% from the highest levels in about 14 months. Oil steadied after its worst week since October.

Nikkei -2.07% Hang Seng -0.08% CSI +0.70% Shanghai +0.91% Shenzen +1.02%

Eur$ 1.1885 CNH 6.5091 CNY 6.5089 JPY 108.75 GBP 1.3853 CHF 0.9305 RUB 74.3765 TRY 7.8980 -8.53% WTI$ 61.08 -0.54% GOLD 1,731.70 -0.77% BTC 57,750 +450

S&P -0.02% Nasdaq +0.58% EuroStoxx -0.39% FTSE -0.37% Dax -0.35% SMI


Macro :
- Turkey Says No Step Back From Free Markets After Lira Crash
- MSCI Could Add Tech and Old Economy in May Review: Smartkarma
- Germany’s Merkel Wants to Extend Lockdown Into April, Bild Says
- Bill Gates Says Some Tax Proposals Have Gone ‘Too Far’
- Ghost of Horrific Treasury Auction Haunts Bond Market on Brink
- France Sticks to 6% GDP Growth Forecast as Lighter Lockdown Hits
- Italy to Block Vaccine Exports for Companies That Don’t Deliver

Spacs :
- Arena Investors Files for $200 Million Distressed Energy SPAC
- Blank-Check Firm Backed by Bridgewater Co-Chair Files for IPO
- Thoma Bravo SPAC Agrees to Take IronSource Public (2)

Keep an eye on :
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- GOOGL US : Google’s Next Billion Users Head Sengupta Leaves For New Venture
- AME US : *AMETEK IS SAID TO NEAR $1.5 BILLION DEAL FOR ABACO SYSTEMS
- BAVA DC : Bavarian Gets $31.2 Mln Smallpox Vaccine Order From Canada
- BIDU US : Baidu Says Hong Kong Listing Retail Offer 112x Subscribed
- CoinBase IPO : Coinbase’s Direct Listing Is Said to Be Pushed Back to April
- CON GY : Apple Car Would Be Welcomed by This Parts Maker Pivoting to EVs
- DEliveroo IPO : *DELIVEROO SETS IPO PRICE RANGE AT GBP3.90 TO GBP4.60 PER SHARE
- Deliveroo IPO : *DELIVEROO JAN-FEB GROSS TRANSACTION VALUE UP MORE THAN 121% Y/Y
- DLG IM : De Longhi to Buy Remaining 60% Stake in Eversys for ~CHF110M
- EDF FP : EDF Gets Approval for Weld Repairs at Flamanville Nuclear Plant
- ENX FP : Euronext: Euronext Sells Centevo
- EVT GY : Evotec and Takeda Form Strategic RNA Targeting Alliance
- FORTUM FH : Vattenfall Mulls Bid for Fortum’s Stockholm Heat Business: DI
- GAM SW : *GERDA CANER BUYS 3.1% STAKE IN GAM: SWISS EXCHANGE REGULATION
- GD US : General Dynamics Wins $2.42b U.S. Navy Contract Modification
- GLEN LN : Glencore Lowers Output at Some NSW Coal Mines Due to Heavy Rain
- GREEN BB : Greenyard Gets Refinancing, Plans EU50m Capital Increase
- HABA GY : Hamborner REIT Proposes Dividend of EU0.47 Per Share
- IF IM : Ifis Plans to Raise EU350m Funds Through NPL Securitization
- IFX GY : Infineon Ramps Up in Texas, Sees Return to Prior Output in June
- BAER SW : Julius Baer Enforced Clawback Provisions on Some Bonuses
- KSU US : CP Rail Agrees to Buy Kansas City Southern for $25 Billion
- NESN SW : Nestle Has Its Starbucks Moment as Consumers Sip Coffee at Home
- PA8 GY : Paion Offers 5.1m Shares at EU1.54/Share via Oddo BHF
- RLF SW : Relief, Acer Sign Collaboration, License Agreement for ACER-001
- ROG SW : Roche’s Tecentriq Meets Primary Goal in Early Stage Lung Cancer
- SPM IM : Saipem Wins Contract Worth More Than $1 Billion From Qatargas
- SOF BB ; Sofina FY Net Asset Value Per Share EU264.59 Vs. EU226.92 Y/y
- STLA IM : Stellantis Delays Production of Trucks Amid Global Chip Shortage
- STB NO : Storebrand to Dispute Norwegian Tax Administration’s Decision
- SEV FP : Suez Says Ready for Talks With Veolia Over Ardian-Backed Plan
- SEV FP : Veolia-Suez Still in Deadlock as Ardian Bids for Suez Parts (1)
- TSLA US : Cathie Wood’s Ark Has a New Price Target for Tesla: $3,000
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- UCG IM : Unicredit: Funds Propose Tondi, Cariello as Board Candidates
- V US : Visa Confirms DOJ Is Opening Probe Into Its U.S. Debit Practices
- VOW GY : Toyota Leads Losses After Renesas Fire Stokes Chip Crunch Fears

FT : Managers hope ‘proxy’ bitcoin funds will finally win SEC approval

Managers hope ‘proxy’ bitcoin funds will finally win SEC approval
Despite their popularity elsewhere, the SEC has yet to give the green light to crypto ETFs

US asset managers are attempting to sidestep the Securities and Exchange Commission’s apparent reluctance to approve bitcoin exchange traded funds with applications for products that will provide “proxy” exposure.

The filings with the SEC come as exchange traded products that track the price of the cryptocurrency are already up and running in Sweden, Switzerland, Jersey, Germany and Canada.

Several applications have already been lodged with the SEC for straightforward bitcoin ETFs. Now two fund managers are hoping their bitcoin-related proposals will be the first to get the go-ahead in the US.

KKM Financial, a Chicago-based “boutique investment solutions firm”, has filed for approval to launch the Valkyrie Innovative Balance Sheet ETF.

This would invest “principally in the securities of operating companies . . . that directly or indirectly invest in, transact in, or otherwise have exposure to bitcoin or operate in the bitcoin ecosystem”.

This could include bitcoin trading platforms, miners, custodians, digital wallet providers and payment facilitation.

Separately, JPMorgan Chase has filed to launch a structured note based on the equity performance of the 11 companies that constitute the JPMorgan Cryptocurrency Exposure Basket.

Just two companies would constitute 38 per cent of the basket; MicroStrategy, a software company that, as of early February, had $3.2bn of bitcoin on its balance sheet, almost half of its then $6.6bn market capitalisation; and Square, the payments company founded by Twitter co-founder Jack Dorsey, which also holds more than $200m of the cryptocurrency on its balance sheet. The list does not include Tesla, which last month disclosed a $1.5bn holding in bitcoin.

“Issuers are going to get creative in order to find ways to service the demand,” said Nate Geraci, president of the ETF Store, an advisory firm.

The applications come as Europe has already approved 23 cryptocurrency ETFs, which had combined assets of $6.3bn at the end of February, according to ETFGI, a consultancy. The first two Canadian bitcoin ETFs, which only launched days earlier, had already amassed a total of $496m by the same point.

A third bitcoin ETF has since debuted on the Toronto Stock Exchange, while there are pending filings for at least five more, including an inverse bitcoin fund proposed by Horizons ETFs for its BetaPro range.

Deborah Fuhr, co-founder of ETFGI, said the launch of bitcoin ETPs in Canada has created less of a premium for other bitcoin vehicles, such as the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, showing “that an ETF is a better, more efficient structure”.

VanEck and WisdomTree, two of the top 10 ETF issuers in the US, have both filed applications with the SEC to launch plain vanilla bitcoin products, as have KKM, under the Valkyrie name, New York Digital Investment Group and Kryptoin Investment Advisers. There is speculation that Grayscale will follow suit after it posted listings to hire nine ETF-related staff.

However, the SEC has voiced concerns around potential “fraudulent and manipulative acts and practices” and a need “to protect investors and the public interest”.

Jeff Kilburg, lead portfolio manager on KKM’s proposed Innovative Balance Sheet ETF, said the ETF’s underlying model had the potential to be a “bridge” that could “serve as a proxy to investors looking for access to bitcoin”, particularly for pension funds and endowments that may not be permitted to invest in bitcoin directly and retail investors who may have trepidation about direct investment.

KKM has identified close to 50 companies worldwide that hold bitcoin on their balance sheet, a number Kilburg expects to double by the end of the year. The early adopters are dominated by technology companies, but he envisaged others, such as banks, also taking steps in this direction.

The SEC’s unwillingness to approve any straight up bitcoin ETFs so far is increasingly puzzling some observers.

Geraci said: “The market could have supported a bitcoin ETF several years ago. It’s well past its time — we have a fully functioning bitcoin futures market that is robust and is a regulated venue, we have products in Europe, we have regulated exchanges like Coinbase, but for whatever reason the SEC has set a higher barrier for an ETF.

“The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has approved bitcoin futures for trading. Another government agency, the SEC, won’t approve a product that can hold the same futures contracts. That seems incongruous to me.”

Likewise, Fuhr said: “If the regulator is happy to have similar products, whether open or closed-ended funds, why would an ETF that does the same thing not be allowed?”

She argued that the “robustness” of cryptocurrency exchanges had increased in recent years and that “products in Europe and Canada are working properly”.

Geraci, who believed the SEC would approve a bitcoin ETF this year, said regulators had “painted themselves into a difficult corner because first-mover advantage is hugely important in this space”.

As a result, he expected to see a flurry of further applications. “My expectation is that we will see some other large issuers attempt to get involved in bitcoin ETFs.”

“Having two of the larger issuers is a pretty big endorsement of the space. Every issuer that wants to have a piece of the bitcoin space has got to get involved fast,” he added.

BlackRock, though, said it had “no plans for a bitcoin or any other cryptoasset ETF” even though the world’s largest asset manager had filed with the SEC to add bitcoin futures as an eligible asset in its Global Allocation and Strategic Income Opportunities funds.

Geraci said there was “no question” certain clients would have interest in bitcoin ETFs.

“Young clients are much more interested in owning bitcoin than physical gold, for example. It’s an uncorrelated asset that marches to the beat of its own drum. A small amount can potentially improve risk-adjusted returns.”