>>> Interactive Brokers beats by $0.23, beats on revs; declares dividend

Interactive Brokers beats by $0.23, beats on revs; declares dividend

  • Reports Q1 (Mar) earnings of $0.98 per share, excluding non-recurring items, $0.23 better than the S&P Capital IQ Consensus of $0.75; revenues rose 67.9% year/year to $893 mln vs the $622.65 mln S&P Capital IQ Consensus.
    • Commission revenue showed strong growth, increasing $143 million, or 53%, from the year-ago quarter on higher customer trading volumes within an active trading environment worldwide.
    • Customer accounts increased 74% from the year-ago quarter to 1.33 million.
    • Total DARTs increased 128% from the year-ago quarter to 3.31 million.
  • The Interactive Brokers Group, Inc. Board of Directors declared a quarterly cash dividend of $0.10 per share. This dividend is payable on June 14, 2021 to shareholders of record as of June 1, 2021.

Business Of Fashion : Hermès Designed Leather Cases for Apple’s New AirTag

Hermès Designed Leather Cases for Apple’s New AirTag
Hermès Apple AirTag case. Apple
During its product launch event on Tuesday, the tech giant announced a new line of Bluetooth tracking devices designed to help users find physical objects through its Find My app. The devices will be available on Apr. 30.
As part of the announcement, Apple previewed four leather cases, designed by Hermès, for a version of the new trackers that will also be engraved with the brand’s Clou de Selle logo, available exclusively through Hermès.

WWD : Kering Sees Q1 Revenues ‘Bounce Back’ Above Pre-Pandemic Levels

Kering Sees Q1 Revenues ‘Bounce Back’ Above Pre-Pandemic Levels
Its star brand Gucci was back in positive territory, with organic revenues up 24.6 percent.

PARIS – Fueled by high double-digit momentum in Asia-Pacific and North America, Kering said first-quarter revenues bounced back above pre-pandemic levels, up 5.5 percent versus the first quarter of 2019.

Star brand Gucci saw sales in the first three months of 2021 return to positive territory, jumping 24.6 percent in organic terms versus the first quarter of 2020 to 2.17 billion euros. Kering credited “the desirability of its collections, successful collaborations and multiple clienteling initiatives” for Gucci’s gains. Organic sales at the Italian megabrand were down 10.3 percent in the fourth quarter, spooking investors.

Consolidated revenues at the French luxury group, also the parent of Saint Laurent, Balenciaga and Boucheron, rose 25.8 percent on a comparable basis to 3.89 billion euros in Q1.

François-Henri Pinault, chairman and chief executive officer of Kering, trumpeted a strong top-line performance.

“Growth was consistent across all our houses, and we are particularly pleased with Gucci’s momentum as the brand kicks off its centennial celebration,” he said in a statement revealing the results, released after the closure of the Paris bourse. “While 2021 should still face some impact from the health crisis, the strategy, positioning and creativity of our houses will enable each one of them to thrive in today’s environment.”

Organic sales in the first quarter rose 23.4 percent at Saint Laurent, 24.6 percent at Bottega Veneta, and 33.1 percent at “other houses.” Of these, Kering highlighted “outstanding” growth at Alexander McQueen and Balenciaga, cited an “excellent quarter” for jewelry houses, which include Pomellato and Qeelin, and described “a good start to the year” for watch brands Ulysse Nardin and Gerard-Perregaux.

By region, sales surged 83 percent in Asia-Pacific and 46 percent in North America, while the online channel rocketed 108 percent to represent 14 percent of Kering’s retail sales.

By comparison, organic sales at LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton’s key fashion and leather goods division rose 52 percent year-over-year in Q1, reflecting the resilience of its star brands Louis Vuitton and Dior. Compared with 2019, the division’s revenues were up 37 percent, a figure the financial community is likely to focus on as evidence of the luxury segment’s strength.

Hermès International is scheduled to report first-quarter results on April 22.

WWD : LVMH, Richemont and Prada Join Forces in Blockchain Consortium

LVMH, Richemont and Prada Join Forces in Blockchain Consortium
The "unprecedented collaboration" will help consumers trace the provenance and authenticity of luxury goods.

Three European rivals are joining forces in an “unprecedented collaboration” to help consumers trace the provenance and authenticity of luxury goods.

LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton, which in 2019 initiated the Aura platform, will be joined by Prada Group and Compagnie Financière Richemont in the Aura Blockchain Consortium, which will promote the use of a single blockchain solution open to all luxury brands worldwide.

Bulgari, Cartier, Hublot, Louis Vuitton and Prada are already keyed into the platform, which will give consumers direct access to a product’s history, proof of ownership, warranty and maintenance record.

According to a joint release revealing the creation of the consortium, it is in “advanced” discussions with several independent brands, and “brands within founder groups” to join soon since the blockchain “offers flexibility to support companies of various sizes and to adapt to individual needs.”

LVMH, Prada and Richemont worked together to create a “single solution to address the shared challenges of communicating authenticity, responsible sourcing and sustainability in a secure digital format.”

Known as a “multinodal private blockchain,” the platform records information in a secure and non-reproducible manner and generates a certificate for its owner, “enhancing the desire for beautiful objects made with savoir-faire and high-quality sustainable materials,” the consortium said.

It stressed that “luxury brands have a unique story to tell on the quality of their materials, craftsmanship and creativity” and that the blockchain would “increase customer trust in the brands’ sustainable practices and product sourcing.”

The Aura platform was developed in partnership with Microsoft and New York-based blockchain software technology company ConsenSys, and the consortium will operate out of Geneva.

In an interview, Toni Belloni, group managing director of LVMH, said consumer demand to know more about what they buy — from authenticity to traceability along the supply chain — is growing and has not been fully satisfied, until now. The blockchain will allow a jewelry purchaser to have information on ethical sources of diamonds, for example.

What’s more, luxury clients will be better served by “an industry standard rather than having to deal with the complexity of each brand having its own approach. The customer will have one known and trusted platform,” Belloni said.

Lorenzo Bertelli, head of marketing and corporate social responsibility at Prada Group, agreed, mentioning the confusion engendered by having various operating systems for mobile telephones.

“It was a common-sense decision,” he said when asked about joining forces with rivals. “It’s easier for everyone to build something together, instead of everybody investing by himself only to find out that is better to find a common platform, a common language.”

He noted Prada has yet to launch its consumer-facing app and online “environment,” but has been readying for the Aura blockchain by embedding radio-frequency identification chips, or RFID, into “millions” of products, which began reaching stores in the second half of 2020. Consumers can register their products retroactively as soon as its app goes live.

“In our eyes, it’s a service,” he said, speaking over Zoom, noting that the “hardest part” is deciding how to best leverage the blockchain as another differentiator for makers of luxury goods. “Every brand will have his own strategy.”

Louis Vuitton was the first to leverage the Aura platform and has already issued a “very significant” number of certificates, Belloni said, characterizing the blockchain as a tech-enhanced update on guarantee certificates sold with products such as high-end watches. “This is another way of protecting the brand and the purchaser.”

For brand marketers, the blockchain also offers a weapon against counterfeiters and gray-market distribution, he added.

“This is a clever and appropriate initiative,” said Luca Solca, senior research analyst at Bernstein. “The whole industry will benefit from having common systems and standards that consumers can use to check product history and authenticity. I would indeed expect more brands to converge on a common platform – neutral and flexible for each brand to use it as appropriate.”

Belloni said LVMH invested “a few millions” to establish the initial Aura blockchain, and there is a mechanism so the shared investments of the consortium founders are refunded over time, while ensuring that monies be invested to continue improving the technological platform for future needs. Participating luxury brands pay an annual licensing fee and a volume fee, he said, noting that the consortium is not-for-profit.

Belloni said the platform will be dedicated to all manner of luxury goods, even potentially cars, and any brand where “high standards of quality, traceability, transparency and authenticity” are a given.

“To be sure, the industry is very competitive and will stay very competitive. But this is one area where we have decided that an industry approach would be beneficial,” he said.

Bertelli agreed, calling the consortium a “deep collaboration” between major luxury groups, and one that opened the door to future possibilities.

“I see a lot of potential for collaboration with key players in the sector,” he said. “I don’t set limits. It’s something that never happened before. I really believe that we would be surprised how much [potential] we can unlock if we work together instead of independently.”

The executives also stressed a desire to have brands of all scales join the consortium. Belloni confirmed French conglomerate Kering has had discussions with the consortium.

“We want a platform that is really an open-source platform, open to everybody, consumer brands, smaller brands. We’re going to be more than happy to welcome niche brands in the luxury sector,” Bertelli said.

The emergence of secure digital identities for luxury goods comes at a time when the commerce of online counterfeit and knockoff products is accelerating along with online fraud and the sale of stolen luxury goods. A blockchain provides clarity on where an item was originally purchased and when it is offered for resale, which will cast a spotlight on gray-market trading, such as China’s thriving daigou networks.

Resale site The RealReal applauded the Aura development: “We believe that commitment to authenticity is fundamental to expanding the luxury resale market. We welcome and support the efforts of all brands to develop and implement tools to ensure authenticity in the secondary market and extend the life cycle of luxury goods.”

“The luxury industry creates timeless pieces, and must ensure that these rigorous standards will endure and remain in trustworthy hands,” said Cyrille Vigneron, president and chief executive officer of Cartier and a member of Richemont’s senior executive committee and board. “Blockchain is a key technology to enhance customer service, relationship with partners and traceability…We therefore invite the entire profession to join this consortium to design a new luxury era enabled by blockchain technology.”

Richemont also uses Arianee solutions for some of its watch brands.

“Although the ambition is to attract as many brands as possible on Aura, the group’s brands are free to choose, the idea being that competition will further raise the standards,” said a spokeswoman for the consortium.

FT : Kering rebound points to recovery for luxury and Gucci

Kering rebound points to recovery for luxury and Gucci
Asia and US drive recovery as French luxury group’s star brand enjoys sales revival

Luxury group Kering has reported first-quarter sales higher than before the pandemic hit after its biggest brand Gucci enjoyed a strong rebound and shoppers in China and the US spent freely as Covid-19 fears receded.

The forecast-beating performance is the latest sign that the biggest players in luxury are on track to move past the pandemic this year as affluent customers splash out even as spending on areas such as travel remains largely off limits. LVMH reported strong sales last week while Hermès will report on Thursday.

For Kering, the results may also begin to allay investors’ concerns that its brands, which in addition to Gucci include Yves Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta, and Balenciaga, have been losing market share to rivals since the pandemic began.

Shares in the group controlled by French billionaire François-Henri Pinault are up only 4 per cent since January 2020, while LVMH and Hermès have risen about 50 per cent as demand for their fashion and leather goods has come roaring back after restrictions eased. Kering stock now trades at a roughly 20 per cent discount to rivals.

The slower recovery at Kering is largely down to its reliance on Gucci. Accounting for two-thirds of group sales, the brand has lost momentum after years of stellar growth driven by Chinese consumers and younger buyers who flocked to designer Alessandro Michele’s work.

The absence in Europe of Chinese tourists, who are usually eager consumers of Gucci, has damped sales as did a decision to cut back on the products sold through department stores and independent retailers. Without tourists to cater to in Paris and Milan, Kering scrambled to woo more locals.

“Our larger brands are selling well to local customers but for some of them this was not enough to compensate for the absence of tourists,” said chief financial officer Jean-Marc Duplaix on a call with analysts. “While we are not out of the woods, we are confident in our houses’ ability to succeed in 2021 and beyond.”

First-quarter revenue stood at €3.89bn, up 25 per cent on a comparable basis from the same period last year when the pandemic first hit.

That was a better performance than analysts had predicted — Jefferies had pencilled in sales of €3.7bn while UBS forecast like-for-like growth of 19 per cent.

It also meant that like rival LVMH, Kering’s first-quarter sales exceeded 2019 levels. But LVMH’s performance was slightly stronger, up 8 per cent from 2019, compared to Kering’s 5.5 per cent, led by its leading brand Louis Vuitton.

The recovery for both luxury groups was driven by China and the US where affluent consumers have largely put the Covid-19 crisis behind them even as Europe continues to lag. Kering’s sales rose 83 per cent in Asia, and 46 per cent in North America.

Gucci sales were €2.17bn in the first quarter, still short of the pre-pandemic levels of €2.3bn but an improvement from last year. It has held more fashion events in China, opened pop-up stores and done frequent new product launches that have begun to “pay off in terms of performance”, said Duplaix.

“We are very pleased with the performance of Gucci,” he added. “There is a need to reinvest to sustain the brand.”

At a recent fashion show to celebrate the brand’s 100-year anniversary, Michele sent out designs that featured exuberant mash-ups of Gucci’s equestrian heritage and Balenciaga styles, splashing both logos on the clothes. Fans raved about the collection on social media.

Bernstein analyst Luca Solca welcomed the renewal under way at Gucci. “We believe that the recently launched Gucci + Balenciaga collaboration has promise: this is exactly the kind of thing Gucci should do to reignite young Chinese consumer interest for the brand.”

>>> SEV FP / VIE FP : Ardian won't participate in the new Structure but gets 50m



From: Nicolas Marmurek (OSCAR GRUSS & SON IN) At: 04/20/21 20:53:42
To: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR SECURITIES LO )
Subject: SEV FP / VIE FP : Ardian won't participate in the new Structure but gets 50m
ARDIAN / GIP won't participate in the NEw deal say Ardiann head of infrastructure. Just spoke with Veolia Advisor, it does not put the current agreemnt into jeopardy. According top the Advisor Ardian was views on valuation were just inadequate, and let's not forget that they are pocketing EUR 50m for nothing underr the terms of the agreement they struck with Suez.

A new twist in a saga that has never been short: the Ardian and GIP investment funds will not participate in the "new Suez" project, the future group foreseen by the merger agreement between Suez and Veolia.
"After nine months of review, we are not satisfied with the project that has just been chosen. We will not be part of it," Ardian Infrastructure boss Mathias Burghardt told Les Echos on Tuesday night.
The agreement reached on 11 April between Veolia and Suez to end eight months of war over the takeover of one over the other is "not acceptable" for the two funds, announced yet among the takers of the future Suez from the deal.

The Franco-American consortium, which had not been involved in the latest negotiations between the two water and waste giants, cited "several sticking points", including the perimeter of the future Suez and its governance.
Since then, "we have not had any discussions with the Ministry of Finance or talks to try to work out an agreement," Burghardt said. "We have in no way tried to unravel the new project between Suez and Veolia. The question was: are we able to participate? And the answer was no." For GIP-Ardian, "a number of topics" were "problematic", including the fact that the future Suez comprises only 25% of international activities, and none in the United States. They "would have liked a better balance between French and international activities," a spokeswoman told AFP.
Regarding the governance of the future Suez, the project provided 40% for this consortium, 40% for the Meridiam fund, the rest going to the Caisse des dépôts (CDC) and to salaried shareholders.
"Ardian and GIP are investing in companies in which they have the means to implement their industrial strategy," it adds. Clearly, 20% each does not make a majority.
Finally, the consortium cites the importance of Suez's "support of the social body" for the project.
On the trade union side, the CGT secretary of the Works Council Franck Reinhold von Essen expressed a "feeling of betrayal" as soon as the agreement was known, believing that "the means of negotiating something else existed".

A majority French shareholding
On 11 April, after nearly eight months of battle, the leaders of Veolia and Suez finally agreed that the former would absorb a large part of the latter and form a "champion" of water and waste weighing some 37 billion euros.
The agreement in principle, reached after mediation by former Suez boss Gérard Mestrallet, provides for the maintenance of a Suez representing 7 billion euros in revenue, less than half of the current group. Mainly concentrated in France, the company would have been taken over by GIP-Ardian, Meridiam and the CDC, for a majority French shareholding. But GIP and Ardian were not at the table at the Bristol Hotel.
"We're going to have to work with them," Varin said on April 12. "Our agreement is an agreement in principle. The detailed terms must now be drawn up, of course this implies discussions that will take place in particular in the coming month," he said.
Suez's management had asked Ardian as early as last fall to make it its alternative takeover in the face of Veolia's proposed takeover bid.
Veolia bought 29.9% of Suez from Engie in early October, before launching a takeover bid for the rest of the shares, much to the chagrin of its beleaguered rival.
In order to take over Suez's activities, which the anti-trust laws would prohibit it from keeping, the number one in the sector had entered into a resale agreement with the Meridiam fund.
The latter confirmed after the agreement of 11 April that it was ready to take a stake of "at least" 40% in the new Suez.
afp/rp



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(ZH) "This Is Nuts!" - Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?

"This Is Nuts!" - Is BofA Right About A Market Drop To 3800?

Recently, Bank of America’s Savita Subramanian discussed why the market could drop to 3800. She discussed her thesis in her latest strategy note titled “Five Reasons To Curb Your Enthusiasm.”
This analysis is interesting, particularly when analysts are rushing to upgrade both economic and earnings estimates.
More importantly, investors are incredibly long-biased in portfolios, with equity allocations reaching some of the highest levels in history.
What Subramanian questions, and something we have asked previously, is all the “good news” already “priced in?”
“Amid increasingly euphoric sentiment, lofty valuations, and peak stimulus, we continue to believe the market has overly priced in the good news. We remain bullish the economy but not the S&P 500. Our technical model, 12-month Price Momentum, has recently turned bearish amid extreme returns over the past year.”
With investors “all in,” we suspect a correction is more likely than not.
Technical Deviations
While BofA only expects a 10% correction, as shown, there is a risk of a deeper reversion.
A correction back to 3800 would only revert prices to mid-2020. As shown, over the last 5-years, corrections have ranged from roughly -10% to -33%. Notably, these corrections usually have reverted the index either to the 200-dma or beyond.
Given the magnitude of the market’s current deviation from the 200-dma, a correction will likely surpass 3800. A retest of the 200-dma seems most probable.
Furthermore, the entire market (small, mid, and large-capitalization companies) have all risen sharply in the liquidity-fueled advance from the March 2020 lows. Such provides plenty of fuel for a more significant correction if selling begins in earnest.
Retracements Suggests The Same
The 200-dma remains the lower boundary for corrections over the past 5-years. That level helps define the parameters of a retracement. As shown below, using the October lows as a starting point for the current rally, a 38.2% retracement aligns mostly with BofA’s prediction.
However, a 50% retracement seems more logical as it aligns with the previous bottoms in both February and March. But a 61.8% retracement also aligns with the 200-dma. As such, we can determine that a correction could range from:
  • 38.2% = 8.3% Decline
  • 50.0% = 10.89% Decline
  • 61.8% = 13.46% Decline
While the mainstream media loathes the discussion of a correction, corrections of this magnitude are a healthy process of reverting market excesses. Furthermore, corrections of this magnitude are well within the confines of drawdowns seen over the last 5-years of the market’s advance.
Fundamentals Require A Lot More
As discussed in “Earnings Optimism Explodes,” the market has run well ahead of fundamentals.
“Here is the problem for investors currently. Given analysts’ assumptions are always high, and markets are trading at more extreme valuations, such leaves little room for disappointment. As shown, using analyst’s price target assumptions of 4700 for 2020 and current earnings expectations, the S&P is trading 2.6x earnings growth.”
As BofA noted, their “fair value” model also suggests that prices are near a peak with a downside target of 3635. (Based on BofA’s 2022 cyclically-adjusted earnings forecast of $173 and its equity risk premium (ERP) forecast of 425bp by year-end (vs. 398bp today.)
Longer-term valuation metrics are all entirely distorted and suggests markets a likely close to a long-term peak than not. As Michael Lebowitz noted recently, the four major valuation indicators are simultaneously at levels offering near-zero returns over the next decade.
This Is Nuts
On many levels, the current exuberance is “nutty.” Our “Fear/Greed Allocation” gauge, which measures investor’s equity exposure, shows the same. With the index pushing 100, a historical rarity, such precedes market corrections.
There are few points in history where the market was this significantly deviated, extended, overbought, and overly bullish. Without exception, the market corrected. Sometimes it was just a 10-20% decline. However, sometimes it is a lot more.
While prices can certainly seem to defy the law of gravity in the short-term, the subsequent reversion from extremes has repeatedly led to catastrophic losses for investors who disregard the risk.
There are substantial reasons to be pessimistic about the markets longer-term. Economic growth, excessive monetary interventions, earnings, valuations, etc., all suggest that future returns will be substantially lower than those seen over the last decade. Bullish exuberance has erased the memories of the previous two major bear markets and replaced it with “hope” that somehow, “this time will be different.”
Maybe it will be.
Probably, it won’t be.
Starting To Take Profits
The problem for the majority of investors is the inability to predict whether the subsequent correction will be just a “correction” within an ongoing bull market advance or something materially worse. Unfortunately, by the time most investors figure it out – it is generally far too late to do anything meaningful about it.
Yesterday, we started selling and taking profits, which provides us three benefits for the future.
  1. Less equity risk, and higher cash levels, reduce portfolio volatility and allows us to navigate a correction while protecting investment capital.
  2. It gives us capital to reinvest back into positions we currently own at better prices; or,
  3. Buy new positions which have corrected in price.
While it is entirely true that “you can not time the market,” you can do some analysis and make deliberate changes to avoid problems.
As discussed previously, “risk happens fast.”
It is essential not to react emotionally to a sell-off. Instead, fall back on your investment discipline and strategy. Importantly, keep your portfolio management process as simplistic as possible.
  1. Trim Winning Positions back to their original portfolio weightings. (ie. Take profits)
  2. Sell Those Positions That Aren’t Working. If they don’t rally with the market during this recent rally, they will decline more when the market sells off again.
  3. Move Trailing Stop Losses Up to new levels.
  4. Review Your Portfolio Allocation Relative To Your Risk Tolerance. If you have an aggressive allocation to equities at this point of the market cycle, you may want to try and recall how you felt during 2008. Raise cash levels and increase fixed income accordingly to reduce relative market exposure.
This is just how we are approaching it.

WSJ :Discord Ends Deal Talks With Microsoft

Discord Ends Deal Talks With Microsoft
Chat startup to stay independent as it resumes interest in a potential initial public offering

Chat startup Discord Inc. has halted talks to sell itself to potential suitors including Microsoft Corp. MSFT -0.48% , according to people familiar with the matter, as it resumes interest in a potential initial public offering down the line.

Microsoft had been in advanced talks to acquire Discord for at least $10 billion, The Wall Street Journal reported last month. Those talks ended without a deal, though it is possible they could be rekindled in the future, some of the people said.

Microsoft, whose market value Tuesday stood at nearly $2 trillion, has been on the hunt for acquisitions that would help it reach more consumers. Last summer, it explored a bid to purchase parts of the video-sharing app TikTok amid a high-profile geopolitical standoff prompted by the Trump administration.

Discord fielded interest from at least three companies about a deal, some of the people said. They said Discord is performing well and prefers to stay independent at this time.

San Francisco-based Discord operates a free online platform for chatting by text, audio and video. Especially beloved by gamers, its popularity has surged since the pandemic took hold as people turned to it as a safe way to connect with friends and family.

Launched in 2015, Discord doubled its valuation to $7 billion in a December funding round. Overall, the company has raised roughly $480 million, according to Crunchbase data. Investors include Greenoaks Capital, Greylock Partners and Index Ventures.

In a move that could facilitate an IPO, Discord last month hired its first finance chief, Tomasz Marcinkowski, a former Pinterest Inc. executive. While Discord isn’t a videogame company, many of its users rely on it to communicate with each other while playing games, and several businesses with ties to the videogame industry have gone public in the past year, including developers Roblox Corp. and Playtika Holding Corp. , game-hardware maker Corsair Gaming Inc. and game-creation tool provider Unity Software Inc.

Roblox did a direct listing last month, shelving original plans to go the traditional IPO route, after the videogame company decided it was too difficult to determine the right price for its shares.

A deal for Discord would have helped Microsoft expand its presence in social media beyond LinkedIn Corp. and what it has developed through its Xbox videogame business. Discord users say the platform offers more attractive features such as higher-quality audio than competing chat services, including even that of Xbox and Skype, which Microsoft also owns.

In addition to the unsuccessful TikTok talks last year, Microsoft gave up on Mixer, its videogame live-streaming service that struggled to compete with the likes of Amazon.com Inc.’s Twitch, Alphabet Inc.’s YouTube and Facebook Gaming.

The technology giant has made several acquisitions in recent years, most recently its proposed deal for Nuance Communications Inc. It spent $7.5 billion earlier this year on its purchase of videogame company ZeniMax Media Inc., $7.5 billion on software-development platform GitHub Inc. in 2018 and $26.6 billion on LinkedIn in 2016.