FT : Lars Windhorst tries to plot future beyond H2O crisis

Lars Windhorst tries to plot future beyond H2O crisis
The ever optimistic German financier is under pressure to buy back more than €1bn of securities from asset manager

As the world retreated into lockdown, German financier Lars Windhorst criss-crossed the globe in a private jet on a mission to raise billions.

The 44-year-old needs to make good on a promise to buy back more than €1bn of bonds from H2O Asset Management, a once-feted European fund manager whose backing helped Windhorst assemble an eclectic collection of businesses that includes Italian lingerie maker La Perla and German football club Hertha Berlin.

After the extraordinary scale of H2O’s bets on the financier threatened to capsize the asset manager in 2019, Windhorst last year vowed to buy back the illiquid debt at the heart of a crisis which has drawn regulatory scrutiny. But more than 12 months later, H2O’s clients, whose money is tied up in the troublesome securities, are still waiting.

The challenge is one of the toughest yet for Windhorst. Hailed as a precocious entrepreneur by then-German chancellor Helmut Kohl when he burst on to the business world in the mid-nineties, his chequered career has included personal bankruptcy.

An initial plan to use an investment vehicle called Evergreen to buy back half the bonds last year and the rest by this June fell apart. Then last August French regulators ordered H2O to suspend several funds because of uncertainties over the valuation of the bonds.

The London-based asset manager has significantly written down the value of the securities, which in some cases Windhorst has agreed to buy back several years ahead of their maturity, and shifted them into so-called side pockets that are closed to investor redemptions.

A criminal investigation launched by the Berlin prosecutor’s office into Windhorst is a further complication. Authorities are probing whether Evergreen violated German law by allegedly engaging in banking activities without the necessary licences. Windhorst denies any wrongdoing and said he has offered his assistance to authorities.


Armed with infectious optimism, an insatiable thirst for dealmaking and an uncanny ability to escape from near ruinous predicaments, Windhorst insists that a large chunk of the debt will be bought back this year.

“Tennor [Windhorst’s main investment company] expects to pay down a major part of the H2O debt before the end of the year,” Windhorst told the Financial Times.

Following the collapse of the Evergreen plan, Windhorst bought himself some breathing space until early next year when Tennor in May announced a restructuring of its debts with “major creditors”, the biggest of which is H2O.

Under the agreement, Tennor Group’s debt will be consolidated into a new €1.45bn bond, carrying a 4.5 per cent interest rate, which is due to be repaid in early 2022. H2O said that the agreement provided a “more stable platform” to liquidate the securities in the funds’ side pockets.

Bet on Hertha Berlin
Windhorst, who operates from a swanky office in London’s Mayfair and a new base in the pricey “Palme” office building in Zurich once occupied by Russian oligarch Viktor Vekselberg, says he tires of the scrutiny that his relationship with H2O has generated.

“It’s normal in business that things are difficult. It’s not a problem for me, I deal with it,” said Windhorst. “I get beaten up for this and we need to move on here and make money and do business.”

Obtaining a clear view of Tennor’s finances is difficult. La Perla, one of its highest-profile investments, posted a €136m loss last year. However, several subsidiaries’ accounts have not been signed off, with filings citing delays in finalising Tennor’s own audited accounts that were due to be filed by the end of March.

According to a 2019 provisional balance sheet filing, the latest that is publicly available, Tennor Holdings had €2.6bn in liabilities at the end of that year.

Windhorst has long lent on debt and short-term funding deals, including repurchase agreements, to finance his businesses. It is a pattern he says he wants to break.

The shadow cast by H2O has done little to dull Windhorst’s ambitions, however. The financier is on track to complete his €374m investment in Hertha Berlin, a German football club with a long history but largely empty trophy cabinet. The agreement to acquire a majority stake was announced just a week after the H2O scandal erupted in 2019.

In June, he took to Twitter to scotch rumours he had fallen behind on payments to the club. “Hello to all doubters who don’t believe this is my account,” Windhorst declared. “Everything is on schedule,” Björn Bäring, Hertha Berlin’s head of finance, told the FT. A final €30m instalment is due this month.

Since Windhorst took control, Hertha Berlin broke its transfer record for a player but lost a manager, the legendary German striker Jürgen Klinsmann, after just 10 weeks in February 2020.

Earlier this year a creditor obtained a judgment in a Dutch court to auction off the investment vehicle Windhorst used to buy his Hertha Berlin stake. The suit, which relates to a short-term loan, is “generally settled”, according to a lawyer for the creditor.

The investment in Hertha Berlin is one of several demands on Windhorst even as the H2O bill remains outstanding.

Shortly before H2O described the financier’s efforts in August 2020 to buy back the bonds under the Evergreen plan as “very partial”, Tennor committed €100m to medical robotics start-up AvateraMedical.

It also announced a major stake in a joint venture with New York-based luxury condo developer Extell to build what is intended to become the tallest Manhattan skyscraper. Despite sluggish progress following planning objections, Windhorst is confident that the project will be “perfectly timed” for an eventual recovery in Manhattan’s luxury residential market.

Windhorst has also expanded his shipping business. Tennor first acquired ailing shipbuilder Flensburger Schiffbau-Gesellschaft in 2019 from Norwegian businessman Kristian Siem. FSG late last year laid the keel on the first ship since it relaunched its operations after insolvency proceedings. The customer: a company owned by Windhorst.

Then last month, FSG snapped up luxury yacht shipyard Nobiskrug in Germany for an undisclosed price. Previously owned by French billionaire Iskander Safa’s Privinvest, Nobiskrug was placed into insolvency in April.

“Both shipyards combined have secured orders in excess of €1bn”, said Windhorst.

If a reliance on debt has been a feature of his business career, so have legal battles.

Earlier this year Siem filed suits at London’s High Court. Meanwhile, in June a judge in Amsterdam ordered Windhorst to “disclose his assets and to provide security” in relation to a long-running dispute over his acquisition of a 50 per cent stake worth €169m in international show jumping event Global Champions Tour from US billionaire Frank McCourt.

Windhorst is adamant that the public filings paint a misleading picture. All the suits bar one filed by entities linked to former Tennor advisory board member Manfredi Lefebvre d’Ovidio, which have made claims worth more than €120m, have been amicably settled, he says. Representatives for Siem, Lefebvre d’Ovidio and McCourt declined to comment.

Paying off
There are signs that the businessman’s frantic flight schedule is beginning to pay off. Windhorst in May sold Berlin-based ad-tech company Fyber, which he owned 90 per cent of, to Nasdaq-listed Digital Turbine at a $600m valuation. The transaction was settled for $150m in cash plus shares in Digital Turbine.

Meanwhile, Windhorst says Tennor has agreed to sell a minority stake in Avatera for €600m. A start-up in the fast-growing field of medical robotics, Avatera has long been considered a potential crown in Tennor’s investment portfolio.

H2O disclosed in a corporate filing that it was unable to dispose of a 12.5 per cent Avatera stake held by one its funds in an “orderly fashion” earlier this year, with a spokesperson saying the asset manager’s priority was to sell at the best price.

Although Avatera is likely to require considerable investments to realise its potential, Windhorst remains bullish. “Avatera has the potential to be a €10bn to €20bn business,” he said.

If that proves the case, it would mark a remarkable turnround for the financier. But four years since H2O stepped in as Windhorst’s saviour, backing his empire as he fought off aggressive creditors, including a Belize-based company linked to a former Russian energy minister, it is the asset manager’s clients who remain in need of rescuing.

Gerard Maurin, an investor, who is spearheading efforts by some to claim damages from H2O, says that communication from the asset manager on the repayment schedule has been vague.

“It motivates us even more to continue our action,” he said. “It’s not normal to have to wait [to redeem your investment].”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 5th of August 2021

>>> Up
* Aker BP Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 280 kroner
* Fraport Raised to Hold at LBBW; PT 60 euros
* Hexagon Composites Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 52 kroner
* SocGen Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 23 euros
* Unite Group Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 1,350 pence
* Wizz Air Raised to Hold at Raiffeisen Bank; PT 5,150 pence
* Wolters Kluwer Raised to Reduce at AlphaValue/Baader

>>> Down
* BAE Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan
* EDP Renovaveis Cut to Underweight at Grupo Santander
* Lloyds Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 45 pence

>>> Initiation
* Krones Rated New Buy at SRH AlsterResearch; PT 120 euros
* SigmaRoc Reinstated Buy at Liberum; PT 125 pence

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 5th of August 2021

Asian stocks were mixed Thursday as investors assessed mixed U.S. economic data and comments from a Federal Reserve official that the central bank is on course to taper stimulus support.
Equities edged up in Japan and fluctuated elsewhere including Hong Kong and China, where Beijing’s regulatory curbs continue to dominate the agenda. The S&P 500 fell from a record overnight, led lower by energy shares, while the technology sector proved more resilient. U.S. contracts climbed in Asian trading. Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said the Fed is on track for a liftoff in interest rates in 2023 and an announcement later this year on paring bond purchases. Clarida’s comments helped to cement money-market bets for an initial rate hike in early 2023. Treasury yields advanced and the dollar held a climb.
Oil steadied below $70 a barrel after a three-day slump exacerbated by the coronavirus resurgence.
The latest economic data showed a much softer-than-expected ADP employment report but a record expansion for U.S. service industries. U.S. jobs numbers are due Friday.
In cryptocurrencies, the second-largest coin Ether was around a two-month high following a software upgrade that will trim the pace at which fresh tokens are minted.
US After Hours PING +13.8%, SITM +13.5%, MELI +6.1%, WU +4.2%, EA +3.6% higher on earnings; FSLY -19.2%, ETSY -13.6%, PETQ -11.7%, LMND -8.9%, ROKU -8.4%, UBER -4.1% lower on earnings

Nikkei +0.46% Hang Seng -0.20% CSI -0.05% Shanghai +0.09% ,Shenzen -0.29%

Eur$ 1.1836 CNH 6.4624 CNY 6.4639 JPY 109.67 GBP 1.3891 CHF 0.9073 RUB 73.0885 TRY 8.4875 WTI$ 68.39 +0.35% Gold 1,811 +0.01% BTC 39,400 -365 ETH 2,700 -10

S&P +0.16% Nasdaq +0.10% EuroStoxx +0.06% FTSE +0.02% Dax +0.04% SMI +0,

Macro :
- U.K. Carmakers Trim Sales Forecast After ‘Pingdemic’ Disruption
- U.K. Eases Quarantine Rules, Opening Up to Travel With France

Keep an eye on :
- 1U1 GY : 1&1 Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- ADEN SW : Adecco Sees Two Potential Deals Providing Net Cash of Over EU50m
- ADS GY : Adidas Boosts FY Net Income From Continuing Operations Forecast
- NDA GY : Aurubis 3Q Oper Ebitda Beats Estimates
- BYW6 GY : BayWa Raises 2021 Ebit Growth Guidance
- BAYN GY : Bayer Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
- BPER IM : BPER Banca 2Q Net Income EU101.5M
- COP GY : CompuGroup 2Q Adjusted Ebitda EU51.0M Vs. EU44.6M Y/y
- ACA FP : Credit Agricole 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- DBK GY : Deutsche Bank Upgraded at Moody’s as Overhaul Gains Traction
- DB1 GY : Even an IPO Boom Can’t Fix a Shrinking Stock Market: ECM Watch
- DPW GY : Deutsche Post 2Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- DOV IM : DoValue 1H Net Revenue EU222.1M
- EDPR PL : EDP Renovaveis Sells Stake in 149 MW Wind Portfolio in Poland
- ZIL2 GY : ElringKlinger Sees FY Adjusted Ebit Margin 5% to 6%
- ENEL IM : Enel Completes Sale of Open Fiber Stake to CDP-Macquarie
- ENT LN : Entain Jumps as MGM Real Estate Sale Spurs Fresh Bid Speculation
- ERF FP ; Eurofins Scientific Boosts FY Revenue Forecast
- EVK GY : Evonik Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates
- FAGR BB : Fagron FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- HNR1 GY : Hannover Re 2Q Ebit Beats Estimates
- ITP IM : Interpump 2Q Net Sales EU405.5M
- KBC BB : KBC Group 2Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- LHA GY : Lufthansa 2Q Adjusted Ebit Loss EU952M, Est. Loss EU765.6M
- MRK GY : Merck KGaA 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- NWO GY : New Work 1H Pro Forma Ebitda EU52.3M Vs. EU39.4M Y/y
- NOVO DC : Novo Climbs to Record High as Analysts Note Guidance Raise
- PTEC LN : Playtech Raises Questions on Source of Funds for Gopher’s Offer
- RAA GY : Rational 2Q Sales Beat Estimates
- RHM GY : Rheinmetall Maintains FY Sales View at Constant FX +7% to +9%
- CFR SW : Richemont Nominates Jasmine Whitbread, Patrick Thomas to Board
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Confirms Talks on Potential Sale of ITP With Bain
- SAE GY : Shop Apotheke Maintains FY Revenue +10% to +15%
- SIE GY : Siemens Acquires Rail Ticketing Firm Sqills in Pivot to Software
- SIE GY : Siemens Raises FY Comp Sales Growth Target to 11%-12%
- SMHN GY : Suess MicroTec 2Q Ebit EU6.6M Vs. EU8.8M Y/y
- SY1 GY : Symrise Sees FY Organic Revenue Above +7%, Saw +5% to +7.00%
- SCMN SW : Swisscom Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast, Beats Estimates
- TEN IM : Tenaris 2Q Net Sales Beat Estimates
- UCG IM : UniCredit, Paschi Deal Would Help Italy Finance Sector: Messina
- ULVR LN : Unilever Is Said to Kick Off Sale of Large Part of Tea Business
- UTDI GY : United Internet 1H Sales EU2.78B
- VLA FP : Valneva Phase 3 Chikungunya Vaccine Trial Meets Primary Endpoint
- VAVN SW : VAT 1H Net Sales Beat Estimates
- VIFN SW : Vifor Pharma 1H Core EPS Beats Estimates
- VOW GY : Class 8 Truck North American Orders Rise 33% YoY in July
- WCH GY : Wacker Chemie 2Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- ZAL GY : Zalando Sees FY Adjusted Ebit High End Of EU400M to EU475M

>>> After Hours Summary: Busy earnings day; PING +13.8%, SITM +13.5%, MELI +6.1%

After Hours Summary: Busy earnings day; PING +13.8%, SITM +13.5%, MELI +6.1%, WU +4.2%, EA +3.6% higher on earnings; FSLY -19.2%, ETSY -13.6%, PETQ -11.7%, LMND -8.9%, ROKU -8.4%, UBER -4.1% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: PING +13.8%, SITM +13.5%, ONEM +8.4%, STAA +8%, PLYA +6.8%, ACLS +6.4%, MELI +6.1%, OCDX +5.4%, WU +4.2% (also agrees to sell its Business Solutions unit for $910 mln), CCRN +4%, TNDM +3.9%, EA +3.6%, ELF +3.5%, FRT +3.5%, BKNG +3.3%, PDCE +3.2%, RCII +3.2%, SRPT +3%, YELL +3%, TSE +2.8%, EGHT +2.3%, TWNK +2.3%, ICUI +2.2%, HUBS +2%, RGR +2%, IIPR +1.8%, ADPT +1.7%, MWA +1.7%, ALKT +1.7%, TTGT +1.6% (also acquires Xtelligent Healthcare Media), UPLD +1.6%, MET +1.5% (also approves new $3 bln share repurchase authorization), APA +1.4%, FOXA +1.3%, EVH +1.2%, QTWO +1.1%, MED +1%, ORCC +0.9%, DOX +0.8%, MRO +0.7%, BOOT +0.6%, WYNN +0.6%, ULCC +0.5%, MCK +0.4%, FOE +0.4%, FATE +0.3%, GMED +0.3%, SUPN +0.3%, ATO +0.2%, CPA +0.2%, EQH +0.2%, HCC +0.2%, UGI +0.2%, BTG +0.1%, GDDY +0.1%, LNC +0.1%, MDU +0.1%, MTG +0.1%, SLF +0.1%, WCN +0.1%, XEC +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: PRTK +7.9% (NUZYRA added to CDC updated report), RYI +7.2% (initiates quarterly dividend of $0.08/sh; also authorizes $50 mln share repurchase program), GLYC +2.5% (names new CEO), EVH +1.2% (to acquire WindRose's portfolio company Vital Decisions for $85 mln), MKTX +0.8% (reports July operating data), REGN +0.7% (says NEJM published "positive" results from Phase 3 trial), COST +0.5% (reports July adjusted comps of +8.0%), REAL +0.3% (provides monthly business update for July), UGI +0.2% (announces partnership with Synthica Energy to develop renewable natural gas), NRIX +0.2% (files for $150 mln common stock offering ; also files for mixed securities shelf offering), TRNO +0.1% (increases dividend)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: FSLY -19.2% (its network experienced a global outage), NVRO -19.1%, ETSY -13.6%, PETQ -11.7% (also CFO to retire), MAXR -9.4% (also wins contract for new satellite for SIRI; also extends EnhancedView follow-on contract with the US NRO), LPI -9%, LMND -8.9%, ROKU -8.4%, ACAD -7.9%, RVLV -7.8%, INGN -7.3%, TXG -6.5%, DXC -6.1%, CENX -5.2%, BE -4.9%, CDAY -4.9%, JACK -4.9%, UBER -4.1%, ANGI -4%, FTDR -3.9%, QNST -3.8%, VVV -3.2%, ADT -3.1%, CHNG -2.9%, INSG -2.7%, PARR -2.7%, MGM -2.6% (says weekend casino volumes back to normal; but weekdays continue to lag), SRI -2.6%, NEX -2% (also to acquire interests in Alamo Pressure Pumping for $268 mln), IAC -1.7%, LESL -1.2%, EOG -1.1%, ANSS -1%, TWO -1%, ORA -0.9%, QRVO -0.8%, WDC -0.7%, BFAM -0.6%, IAG -0.6%, VZIO -0.5%, ALL -0.4%, CMP -0.4% (postpones earnings report), WTS -0.4%, ALB -0.3%, ARLO -0.2%, ATRC -0.2%, FCPT -0.2%, KW -0.2%, NUS -0.2%, RPD -0.2%, RPT -0.2%, ACA -0.1%, DCP -0.1%, RMAX -0.1%, SUM -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: ATEC -5.9% (convertible notes offering), GPRE -5.4% (stock offering), SBRA -3.7% (CFO to retire), ESTE -1.5% (stock offering), DDOG -1.3% (launches Datadog Cloud Security Platform), QSR -1.3% (stock offering), ADMP -1% (to sell a significant portion of the assets of its US Compounding unit for up to $15 mln), LOTZ -0.4% (KAR increases passive stake to 6.3% from 2.5%), CMP -0.4% (postpones earnings report), KDMN -0.2% (REZUROCK added to cancer network clinical practice guidelines), CBOE -0.2% (reports July trading volume), NWN -0.2% (signs agreement with Element Markets to purchase NRG for Oregon customers), TPX -0.1% (H Partners lowers active stake to 4.6% from 5.6%), GVA -0.1% (wins $64 mln contract for Jurupa Road project)

>>> US Close Dow -0.92% S&P -0.46% Nasdaq +0.13% Russell -1.23%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The S&P 500 decreased 0.5% on Wednesday in a tired session. The more interesting action happened in the Treasury market, shares of Robinhood Markets (HOOD 70.39, +23.59, +50.4%), and a handful of other technology-related stocks in the Nasdaq Composite (+0.1%). 

The Nasdaq ended the session in positive territory, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average (-0.9%) and Russell 2000 (-1.2%) underperformed the S&P 500. 

Starting with the Treasury market since it's more tied to economic matters, the 10-yr yield traded as low as 1.13% after the July ADP Employment Change report missed expectations by a wide margin, stirring concerns about the Employment Situation report on Friday. The ADP estimated that private-sector payrolls increased by 330,000 in July (Briefing.com consensus 650,000). 

The 10-yr yield then jumped to 1.21% after the release of the July ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 10:00 a.m. ET, which increased to a record high of 64.1% (Briefing.com consensus 60.5%). The 10-yr yield settled the session at 1.18%, or one basis point above yesterday's settlement. 

The price action in the S&P 500 was more subdued amid continued consolidation activity (even though it eked out a record close yesterday). Nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors closed lower, including energy (-2.9%), industrials (-1.4%), and consumer staples (-1.3%) with losses over 1.0%. 

Energy stocks followed oil prices ($68.16, -2.41, -3.4%) lower, while the communication services (+0.2%) and information technology (+0.2%) sectors were the only sectors that closed higher. 

Robinhood, meanwhile, garnered a lot of media attention with its 50% gain that wasn't driven by any fundamental news. Interestingly, some of that frenzied activity carried over to Moderna (MRNA 419.05, +32.54, +8.4%), AMD (AMD 118.77, +6.21, +5.5%), and Zoom Video (ZM 400.58, +25.70, +6.9%), all of which climbed on heavy volume. 

Facebook (FB 358.92, +7.68, +2.2%) was another standout, rising 2% on below-average volume. CVS Health (CVS 81.55, -2.45, -2.9%), General Motors (GM 52.72, -5.16, -8.9%), and Lyft (LYFT 49.53, -5.85, -10.6%), on the other hand, declined noticeably following their earnings reports. 

Separately, Fed Vice Chair Clarida said he believes the necessary conditions for raising the target range for the fed funds rate will have been met by year-end 2022. The Fed-funds-sensitive 2-yr yield was unchanged at 0.17%. The U.S. Dollar Index increased 0.2% to 92.27. 

Reviewing Wednesday's economic data:

  • The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index for July increased to 64.1% (consensus 60.5%) from 60.1% in June. The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%. The July reading is a record high, eclipsing the former high of 64.0% seen in May, and marks the fourteenth straight month of growth for the services sector.
    • The key takeaway from the report is the understanding that services sector activity is running at a record pace while prices aren't far behind. The report is a testament to the unleashing of pent-up demand, which is running headlong into supply challenges on the labor and product fronts.
  • The ADP Employment Change report estimated 330,000 jobs were added to private-sector payrolls in July, which was well below the Briefing.com consensus of 650,000. The June increase was downwardly revised to 680,000 from 692,000.
  • The final reading for the July IHS Markit Services PMI checked in at 59.9, which was slightly higher from the preliminary reading of 59.8.
  • The weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index decreased 1.7% following a 5.7% gain in the prior week. 

Looking ahead, investors will receive the weekly Initial and Continuing Claims report and the Trade Balance for June on Thursday.

  • S&P 500 +17.2% YTD
  • Nasdaq Composite +14.7% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average +13.7% YTD
  • Russell 2000 +11.2% YTD

FT : SoftBank/Roche: Northstar reorients to embrace drug development

SoftBank/Roche: Northstar reorients to embrace drug development
The Swiss company and Japanese tech investor both have a taste for big data and disruption

SoftBank’s asset management arm Northstar has a reputation for hedge fund-style risk taking, losing some $5.6bn on derivatives. The latest $5bn investment in pharma giant Roche by the “Nasdaq Whale” looks a lot more conventional at first glance.

However, the Swiss company and the Japanese tech investor both have a taste for big data and disruption. There will be a thesis behind this investment, and it may be less far-fetched than many embraced by SoftBank.

Despite its size, Roche is not a staid business. It is renowned for placing big bets of its own. Focusing on unmet needs — illnesses for which inadequate treatments exist — is risky because failure rates are high. But the rewards from developing even a single ultra-successful drug can be huge.

Roche has bet heavily on the potential of big data as it looks for new growth areas. It has invested in genomics, a technology that is enjoying a renaissance after falling flat in the 1990s and 2000s. That is helping it take an early lead in personalised medicine.

It also has a notable blockbuster in multiple sclerosis drug Ocrevus. Analysts estimate its net present value at more than $30bn. That helps explain why Roche’s return on research and development investments beats the sector average. It is more than a percentage point higher than its estimated 8 per cent cost of capital, according to Berenberg DrugBank.

A successful drug for Alzheimer’s could have the biggest pay-off of all. Until June, investors had little hope that Roche’s candidate gantenerumab might work. That changed with a surprise decision by US regulators in early June to approve Biogen’s aducanumab, which has a similar mechanism.

Since then enthusiastic investors piled into the stock, which is up by a tenth, outperforming the STOXX Europe Total Market Pharmaceuticals. The shares now trade on a price/earnings ratio of 18, slightly above the sector mean and its own long term average.

That share rally should fade. Positive trial results, due next year, are far from certain. There is a fierce debate over whether Biogen’s aducanumab actually works. Meanwhile revenues at Roche, which has had to reduce its reliance on its ageing cancer drugs, are likely to be flat next year.

Even so, Roche looks well-placed to capitalise on the convergence of medical knowledge, technology and data science. Its enthusiasm for data-driven drug discovery, likely shared by SoftBank, should feed a promising pipeline.

FT : French fund manager to launch first EU-regulated bitcoin tracker

French fund manager to launch first EU-regulated bitcoin tracker
Melanion Capital seeks to tap into booming crypto interest with new Ucits vehicle

A French asset manager is set to launch an EU-regulated fund that closely tracks the price of bitcoin, marking one of the first times that investors will be able to access the hyper-volatile asset through mutual funds across the bloc.

Paris-based Melanion Capital, a derivatives and computer-driven fund manager that has been expanding into digital assets, has recently received approval from the French regulator to launch an exchange-traded fund that complies with the EU standards known as Ucits.

The fund will track a basket of up to 30 stocks in sectors such as cryptocurrency mining and blockchain technology, which Melanion says is up to 90 per cent correlated to the price of bitcoin.

The launch highlights how fund firms are becoming increasingly creative in the face of financial regulators who are often sceptical or slow-moving when it comes to the fast-evolving world of digital assets.

“I haven’t seen any funds launched yet that are focused on digital assets under the Ucits umbrella,” said Winston Penhall, a funds lawyer at Keystone Law in London. How regulators view bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies is “all somewhat up in the air”, he added.

Ucits funds, which are sold across the EU and are also popular in Asia and Latin America, are seen as an international gold standard of fund regulation. They form the bulk of European mutual funds and offer high levels of investor protections. But their rules were first established more than 30 years ago and do not directly address cryptocurrencies like bitcoin.

Most national regulators interpret the rules to mean digital assets cannot be directly held in funds, unless they are linked to listed securities. That makes it almost impossible to launch a Ucits fund investing predominantly in bitcoin that can be sold across the bloc and come with safeguards for consumers.

“Most pipes of the traditional financial system stop at access to bitcoin,” said Melanion CEO Jad Comair. “The ETF was a real challenge because of the sensibilities and politics currently surrounding bitcoin and bitcoin investing.” 

Among the top holdings in Melanion’s index, which the fund will track and which is calculated by German fintech Bita, are stocks such as crypto miners Argo Blockchain and Riot Blockchain, investment management firm Galaxy Digital, led by entrepreneur Mike Novogratz, and broker Voyager Digital. Stocks are weighted based on how sensitive they are to movements in the bitcoin price.

Ireland’s central bank last year said that it was “cognisant of both the important opportunities and material risks associated with crypto-assets”. However, EU regulator Esma noted in March this year that “some crypto assets are highly risky” and that most are unregulated in the EU.

A number of exchange-traded notes and products that track bitcoin exist, such as the $242m Wisdom Bitcoin ETP. While they are regulated as securities, they do not have the coveted Ucits wrapper.

In the US a range of fund firms, including Cathie Wood’s Ark Invest, have unveiled plans for bitcoin ETFs, although the Securities and Exchange Commission has yet to grant approval.

The French fund, called the Melanion BTC Equities Universe Ucits ETF, will be listed on Euronext in Paris and will charge a fee of 0.75 per cent.

Reuters - Lambda variant shows vaccine resistance in lab



From: Laurent Chekroun (MAKOR SECURITIES PAR) At: 08/04/21 13:47:49
Subject: Reuters - Delta infections among vaccinated likely contagious; Lambda variant sh
Delta infections among vaccinated likely contagious; Lambda variant shows vaccine resistance in lab

Aug 2 (Reuters) - The following is a roundup of some of the latest scientific studies on the novel coronavirus and efforts to find treatments and vaccines for COVID-19.

Delta breakthrough infections likely contagious

Among people infected by the Delta variant of the coronavirus, fully vaccinated people with "breakthrough" infections may be just as likely as unvaccinated people to spread the virus to others, new research suggests. The higher the amount of coronavirus in the nose and throat, the more likely the patient will infect others. In one Wisconsin county, after Delta became predominant, researchers analyzed viral loads on nose-and-throat swab samples obtained when patients were first diagnosed. They found similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, with levels often high enough to allow shedding of infectious virus. "A key assumption" underlying current regulations aimed at slowing COVID-19 transmission "is that those who are vaccinated are at very low risk of spreading the virus to others," said study coauthor Katarina Grande of Public Health Madison & Dane County in Madison, Wisconsin. The findings, however, indicate "that vaccinated people should take steps to prevent the spread of the COVID-19 virus to others," she added. In a separate study from Singapore, researchers found that while Delta viral loads were similar in vaccinated and unvaccinated patients, the viral loads decreased faster in the vaccinated group. The Wisconsin and Singapore studies were both posted on Saturday on medRxiv ahead of peer review.

Lambda variant shows vaccine resistance

The Lambda variant of the coronavirus, first identified in Peru and now spreading in South America, is highly infectious and more resistant to vaccines than the original version of the virus the emerged from Wuhan, China, Japanese researchers have found. In laboratory experiments, they found that three mutations in Lambda's spike protein, known as RSYLTPGD246-253N, 260 L452Q and F490S, help it resist neutralization by vaccine-induced antibodies. Two additional mutations, T76I and L452Q, help make Lambda highly infectious, they found. In a paper posted on Wednesday on bioRxiv ahead of peer review, the researchers warn that with Lambda being labeled a "Variant of Interest" by the World Health Organization, rather than a "Variant of Concern," people might not realize it is a serious ongoing threat. Although it is not clear yet whether this variant is more dangerous than the Delta now threatening populations in many countries, senior researcher Kei Sato of the University of Tokyo believes "Lambda can be a potential threat to the human society."

Third mRNA dose may boost antibody quantity, but not quality

Among fully vaccinated people who never had COVID-19, getting a third dose of an mRNA vaccine from Pfizer (PFE.N)/BioNTech or Moderna (MRNA.O) would likely increase levels of antibodies, but not antibodies that are better able to neutralize new virus variants, Rockefeller University researchers reported on Thursday on bioRxiv ahead of peer review. They note that in COVID-19 survivors, the immune system's antibodies evolve during the first year, becoming more potent and better able to resist new variants. In 32 volunteers who never had COVID-19, they found that antibodies induced by mRNA vaccines did evolve between the first and second shots. But five months later, vaccine-induced antibodies were "equivalent" to those seen after the second dose, with "little measurable improvement" in the antibodies' ability to neutralize a broad variety of new variants, said coauthor Michel Nussenzweig. Therefore, he said, giving those individuals a third dose of the same vaccine would likely result in higher levels of antibodies that remain less effective against variants. "At the moment, the vaccine remains protective against serious infection," Nussenzweig said. "Should we learn that efficacy is indeed waning for serious infection, which is not really the case to date," then a booster dose of "whatever is available" might become appropriate, he added. Should an updated vaccine become available that protects against specific variants, "then that would be the choice."

Majority of U.S. childcare providers are vaccinated

U.S. childcare providers have higher COVID-19 vaccination rates than U.S. adults in general, a new study suggests. Researchers sent surveys in May and June to nearly 45,000 childcare providers and received responses from 48%. Overall, 78% of respondents said they were fully vaccinated, compared with a rate of about 60% in the general U.S. population. Roughly 73% of home-based caregivers said they were vaccinated, compared to nearly 80% of those working in facilities. Rates varied widely by state, from a low of 54% in Wyoming to a high of 89% in Massachusetts. The patterns of relative differences in vaccination rates were similar to what is seen in the general population, the researchers reported on Sunday on medRxiv ahead of peer review, with younger, lower-income and Black or African-Americans reporting the lowest vaccination rates. "Efforts to promote COVID-19 vaccine uptake among childcare providers take on added significance when considering the emergence of the more transmissible Delta variant," the authors said. With young children ineligible for COVID-19 vaccination, "the limiting factor in ensuring an adequate supply of childcare services will be contingent on protecting the personal health of childcare providers," they said.