TheChek News Flow

Cover:

-In 2026, the initial public offering (IPO) landscape has drastically evolved, with upcoming mega-IPOs like SpaceX poised to redefine market expectations. Valued at nearly $2 trillion, SpaceX is expected to raise an unprecedented $75 billion this June, a move that may make CEO Elon Musk the first trillionaire. This trend of massive IPOs is not uncommon; companies like Anthropic, OpenAI, Databricks, and Stripe also eye valuations exceeding $100B. However, historical data indicate that large IPOs frequently underperform, with many yielding negative returns. As private investors anticipate substantial gains, new IPOs, including SpaceX, may exhibit erratic behavior in trading, diverging from typical stock patterns for an extended period. This volatility suggests that, although exciting, it could be wiser for investors to exercise patience rather than hastily engage in a tumultuous market. Facebook's IPO record of $81B in 2012 could soon be eclipsed, as SpaceX aims for a valuation over 20 times that size.

Interview:

-Cummins, a leader in diesel engine technology, is thriving amid the boom in artificial intelligence, particularly in the data center sector. CEO Jennifer Rumsey highlights the company's capability to manage fluctuations in AI demand, drawing from its history in heavy-duty truck engines. Despite a notable stock valuation, investors are questioning the relevance of traditional cyclical investment strategies in this context.

Tech Trader:

-During Nvidia's recent earnings call, CEO Jensen Huang emphasized a new segment reporting approach to counter negative investor sentiment, despite another strong earnings report that saw the stock drop nearly 3%. This change categorizes data center sales between major clients, like Amazon and Microsoft, and other smaller customers, aiming to depict a more diverse revenue stream. The initial results showed first-quarter revenue growth of 115% from hyperscalers, compared to 74% from smaller clients. However, the historical data Nvidia provided does not fully support Huang's case. The company has previously successfully employed similar strategies; in May 2024, they highlighted sales of networking chips, which surged 142% over time, solidifying Nvidia’s position as the leading data center networking-chip provider. This latest tactic mirrors those past efforts to shift investor focus beyond just graphics processing unit sales.

The Trader:

-The market is experiencing a strong performance, with the S&P 500 index rising 1.1% this week for its eighth consecutive gain, while the Nasdaq Composite increased by 0.8%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged by 2.4%, driven by significant spending on quantum computing that helped IBM achieve its best week in 25 years. Despite Nvidia's disappointing earnings, overall fundamentals show a healthy economy, highlighted by low jobless claims, robust pending home sales, and an expected GDP growth of 4.3% for the second quarter. This economic strength may prevent the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates. Corporate earnings have also been impressive, with 84% of S&P 500 companies exceeding forecasts, and earnings growth at 28% year-over-year, marking the strongest quarter since late 2021, particularly in tech and consumer sectors.

-Investors are looking for resilient stocks amid the dominance of artificial intelligence, and outdoor advertising, seen as a "HALO business" with significant assets and low obsolescence, fits this criteria. Billboards will remain prevalent, especially as commuters encounter advertisements frequently, whether on highways or public transport. Two prominent players in this sector, Lamar Advertising and Outfront Media, have reported gains of 20% and over 35% respectively this year, remaining classified as specialty real estate investment trusts. Analysts forecast annual revenue growth of 5% for Lamar and 8% for Outfront by 2025, highlighting robust ad spending in the out-of-home market. Notably, Lamar has already secured 75% of its revenue target for the year, marking strong performance post-COVID. Additionally, Outfront is poised for further growth due to anticipated advertising demand related to the upcoming soccer World Cup, with matches set in major U.S. urban areas.

Features:

-Carpenter Technology, founded in 1889 and based in Philadelphia, produces specialized alloys essential for aerospace, defense, and medical applications. It operates in a limited supply market, with only three U.S. companies able to manufacture these alloys, amid growing demand for aerospace and industrial gas turbines. This imbalance has led to record operating income, with the company's earnings per share reaching $2.77 after a 12% sales increase to $812 million. Carpenter’s competitive edge stems from the lengthy process (up to five years) required to establish new aerospace-grade nickel capacity, deterring OEMs from switching suppliers for minor cost differences. Aerospace and defense sectors, which account for two-thirds of revenue, are expected to maintain strong growth, benefiting from a recovery in commercial aircraft production and increasing demand.

-Kevin Warsh was inaugurated as the 17th chair of the Federal Reserve at a White House ceremony, where President Trump emphasized the importance of the Fed's independence. This contrasts with the pressure faced by Warsh's predecessor, Jerome Powell. Despite Trump's assurances, challenges abound, including persistent inflation and divided opinions among Fed policymakers regarding potential rate hikes. Warsh acknowledged the need for reforms at the Fed, advocating for a focus on price stability and employment. He aims to ensure that policy decisions are data-driven, rather than predetermined, and has proposed reducing the Fed’s sizable balance sheet.

Europe:

-Chrysler-parent Stellantis recently detailed its ambitious turnaround plan during its capital markets day, aiming to grow sales from €154B in 2025 to €190B by 2030, with a target operating profit margin of 7%. The plan includes cost-cutting measures and new model introductions, promising potential benefits for shareholders. Despite a concerning 30% stock drop this year and various challenges like inflated inventories and quality costs, analysts view the strategy positively. The stock recovered slightly post-event, closing at $7.56, though it remains significantly down over the past year and five years. Stellantis' operating profit reached €34B in 2023, but losses were noted earlier in 2025.

Emerging Markets:

-In the competition between emerging market stock ETFs, the iShares Core MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (IEMG) outperforms the Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (VWO) due to its exposure to South Korea's booming market. IEMG has seen a 38% increase over the past year and 18% in 2026, while VWO gained 22% and 9%, respectively. South Korea's stock market, driven by semiconductor leaders Samsung and SK Hynix, accounts for approximately 20% of IEMG and has surged nearly 75% this year. The classification of South Korea as an emerging market by MSCI is debated due to its robust economy, which resembles a first-world status, similar to Taiwan's situation.

Commodities:

-Energy was the top-performing sector of the S&P 500 last week, with the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF rising nearly 7%. Despite only representing about 4% of the index—historically low—its significance is expected to increase due to surging demands driven by AI's electricity needs. Chevron has demonstrated strong performance, gaining 25% year-to-date and 37% over the past year, while offering a nearly 4% dividend. Currently, it trades 11% below its 52-week high and showed a consistent upward trend last week. Technically, Chevron is establishing the right side of a cup base and is above a double bottom breakout. However, it experienced a 14% drawdown following a bearish evening star pattern before rebounding, supported by a bullish hammer formation. Phillips 66, another key player in the energy sector, operates the largest refinery systems in the U.S. and has risen 36% this year. Its weekly chart illustrates a recovery of the two-year cup base above the $174.18 pivot, originally surpassed in late March. Throughout February and March, the stock displayed robust momentum by trading consistently above the overbought RSI level of 70, indicating strong leadership.

Streetwise:

-After several delays, the release of Grand Theft Auto VI by Take Two Interactive Software is now anticipated for November, marking a significant moment for its stock performance. Historically, GTA titles launched rapidly, with multiple releases annually until GTA V in 2013, which introduced a multiplayer mode distinct from its continuing online revenue source, GTA Online. Over the past 13 years, GTA Online has proven to be a financial success, continuously generating income through game sales and in-game purchases. The necessity for a new title stems from advancements in mapping technology and demand for a fresh single-player storyline, which could enhance initial sales. Originally set for a previous year, GTA VI's launch has been postponed multiple times, but the company has reaffirmed the November 19 release date, buoyed by strong fiscal performance from existing franchises and acquisitions like Zynga.

Related ( TTWO SPCX IBM NVDA LAMR OUT AMZN ANTHROPIC.IPO PSX STLA MSFT RAGSX OPENAI.IPO STLA.NL )

Stocks are partying like it’s 1999. Americans haven’t been this gloomy in 70 years.

Americans are in a decidedly bad mood. The stock market is decidedly not.

This isn’t how it usually works. Instead, high stock prices have historically been associated with happy consumers, and vice versa. Here’s a look at what’s going on.

Just how bad is sentiment?

American attitudes just hit a milestone of sorts. On Friday, the University of Michigan reported that its index of consumer sentiment fell to the lowest level ever recorded in 70-odd years of surveys.

Sentiment was already low at the start of this year, but it fell sharply after the Iran war began at the end of February and sent gas prices sharply higher.

Until this year, the previous lowest level was in June 2022, when inflation was running at the highest level in decades. Friday’s sentiment reading was 10% below even that number.

“Prices remain extremely high, labor markets have unambiguously weakened in the last four years, and now we’re in the middle of a war,” said Joanne Hsu, director of consumer surveys for the University of Michigan. “I don’t think the fact that we’re lower than June 2022 should come as a surprise to anyone.”

Just how good are stocks?

But if you look at the stock market, you would never imagine sentiment to be that low. Also on Friday, the S&P 500 notched its eighth consecutive week higher, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a record close for the second day in a row.

And it isn’t just that stocks are high. They also appear really expensive.

The S&P 500 is clocking a valuation of 40.8, as measured by its cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio. That’s a metric popularized by Yale University economist Robert Shiller, who won an economics Nobel in 2013 for his work on asset prices.

The only other time it was above 40 in the 145 years of Shiller’s data was in the years just before and after the peak of the dot-com bubble in early 2000.

The year 2000 was also when the Michigan sentiment index reached all-time highs. It has never approached even close to those levels since then.

Americans with hefty stock portfolios are on average feeling better than their peers, according to the Michigan survey. But unlike in past periods when stock valuations have been high, they are still relatively unhappy.

So what makes today such an outlier from the way that things usually work? Economists have a few ideas.

Back in 2000

Take the year 2000 as an example, when the typical pattern of strong stock markets and happy consumers held true.

Robert Barbera, director of the Center for Financial Economics at Johns Hopkins University, notes that back then the stock market and Americans were responding to a shared optimism. The economy was growing and adding jobs, and inflation was cool. The Cold War was over, China was opening up and the U.S. government was running a surplus.

Much like today with artificial intelligence, there was a transformational new technology taking hold. But the zeitgeist around the internet was that it would connect the world and improve lives. AI isn’t viewed as positively.

What 2026 feels like

Barbera points to three things that might explain today’s disconnect, none of which is entirely exclusive of one another.

First, stock prices could be out of touch with the fundamentals of where the U.S. economy is headed and in danger of moving sharply lower. In other words, consumers are right to be unhappy.

Second, stocks could be foreseeing a future that many Americans have yet to suss out—one, say, in which the war with Iran ends, inflation eases and growth picks up. In other words, stocks are right to look exuberant.

And third? The biggest thing driving enthusiasm in the stock market lately has been AI, which also has been the source of rising angst among many Americans. A world where companies can use AI to reduce labor costs and dramatically widen their profit margins is good for stocks. But that could also be a world where more people struggle to find work.

“The stock market on the moon and households in increasing gloom are reflecting on the same thing,” Barbera said.

Mecca prepares for annual Hajj with security forces on high alert; ‘not going to be business as usual’

More than a million pilgrims have poured into Saudi Arabia from across the world for the annual Hajj in Mecca, braving a war that has laid bare the Middle East’s modern fault lines.

Among them: tens of thousands of worshipers from Iran and Iraq, countries that have launched barrages of drones and missiles at Saudi Arabia and been struck by the kingdom in return. The latest attack was on May 17, despite the U.S.-Iran cease-fire, when the Saudis intercepted three drones launched from Iraq, where Iran-linked militias operate.

Diplomatic activity aimed at heading off fresh U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran continued Saturday, with mediators meeting Iranian negotiators. Renewed bombing during Hajj and the Eid al-Adha holiday that follows, when Muslims pray together and gather for meals, could be seen as provocative.

The Hajj involves a series of rituals harking back to Islam’s earliest days. It is required once in a lifetime for all Muslims who are physically and financially able. The Saudis exert tremendous effort to organize it, deploying legions of security forces, healthcare workers and guides.

They regulate attendance through an opaque system of visa quotas that roughly grants one spot per 1,000 Muslims in each country, though that can sometimes be negotiated. They have previously blocked people who espouse ideologies they oppose.

Considered one of the five pillars of Islam, the Hajj has taken place almost every year for the past 14 centuries. Despite Saudi bans on political activity, there is always a risk of disturbances among throngs of worshipers.

That risk is heightened this year. The Iran war has scrambled travel across the Middle East and drawn Saudi Arabia into direct conflict with Iran, which disputes its custody of Islam’s two holiest sites in Mecca and Medina. Rivalry between the Saudis and the Iranians has occasionally turned deadly at the Hajj.

“The Saudis got really good at controlling all of this…but it’s not foolproof, and this is the first time that these two countries are in an actual state of war,” said Kamran Bokhari, senior resident fellow at the Middle East Policy Council, a research institute in Washington, D.C. “So there’s always this chance that something could go wrong.”

Saudi Arabia’s media ministry and Iran’s mission to the United Nations didn’t respond to requests for comment.

The conflict complicates a delicate balance for Saudi Arabia. Control of Islam’s holiest sites generates prestige and revenue, but it also carries an obligation to keep them safe and accessible for all Muslims.

The issue is acute for de facto Saudi ruler Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is pursuing an expansion of Mecca’s capacity and has implemented liberalizing social reforms in the kingdom that critics say are inappropriate in the birthplace of Islam.

Mecca, nestled in Saudi Arabia’s western mountains, is within range of Iranian missiles and drones, but it is far from the locus of fighting in the Persian Gulf and generally considered off-limits by the belligerents. The closest attacks have hit Yanbu, a Red Sea port some 200 miles away.

A more likely scenario is disruption on the ground in Mecca, where emotions often run high. The biggest test could come on the second day of Hajj, when pilgrims gather for prayer and repentance at Mount Arafat, a granite hill and surrounding plains at the edge of Mecca.

Iran has previously encouraged its pilgrims to demonstrate against the U.S. and Israel. One of the worst bouts of violence came in 1987, when Saudi security forces confronted demonstrators, resulting in a violent clash followed by a stampede that left at least 400 people dead. Protesters in Tehran then attacked the Saudi embassy. Diplomatic ties broke down, with Riyadh cutting visas for Iranian pilgrims and Iran eventually boycotting Hajj.

In 1989, two bombs went off near Mecca’s Grand Mosque. The Saudis arrested and executed 16 Kuwaitis they said had planted the explosives with the help of Iranian officials.

Tensions erupted again in 2015, when some 2,000 pilgrims were killed in a crush. The largest number of victims came from Iran, which accused the Saudis of botching administration of the pilgrimage. Relations broke down a few months later and the Iranians skipped Hajj in 2016.

At public events this month, Saudi ministers said they were fully prepared but didn’t publicly address the risks posed by the war, which has forced the cancellation of major sporting events and conferences in the Gulf.

Turmoil hasn’t stopped pilgrims from flowing into Saudi Arabia from every corner of the world, even as some had to rebook travel after flights were canceled. A few thousand Americans are taking part, despite a State Department notice discouraging participation this year.

Ibrahem Aabed, a healthcare worker from West Chester, Ohio, said he and his wife are making the journey after losing the opportunity in 2020 because of the Covid-19 pandemic and then struggling to get a spot in subsequent years.

“I feel comfortable going no matter what, because we believe in destiny. We believe that God asks us and he wants us to go there,” he said. “The war is not making us change our mind, honestly, not even one percent…No matter what happens, God will take care of it.”

When the war began in February, during the holy month of Ramadan, thousands of Iranians were in Mecca and Medina for a smaller pilgrimage. Saudi authorities evacuated them overland.

It wasn’t clear at the start of the war whether Iranians would be able to attend Hajj, but around 30,000 of them have now arrived. That is less than half the number that have participated in recent years.

“Everybody’s acknowledged that the Iranians should be there [but] it’s not going to be business as usual,” said James Piscatori, emeritus professor of Islam and the Muslim World at the Australian National University in Canberra. “There are worries that it could lead to an uncontrollable security situation…so something which is not what the Iranians want but not their total exclusion either.”

With U.S. bombing paused, Iran has reopened its airspace and resumed flights, allowing some pilgrims to fly directly to Medina, where they were welcomed by Saudi volunteers with flowers and chocolates, Saudi television showed. Others traveled overland.

One woman from Iran’s southwestern Khuzestan province, a 53-year-old homemaker, said she arrived in Mecca earlier this month after a three-day bus journey through Iraq. Her family stayed behind out of fear.

A trader in Tehran who imports cars and spare parts from China was still planning to attend, despite fears that Iranians could become targets there, and the increased costs from the devaluation of the Iranian currency. He said he trusted Iranian authorities to navigate tensions to keep pilgrims safe and was willing to accept any burden to fulfill his religious obligation.

US warns Japan of severe delays in Tomahawk deliveries due to Iran war

Missiles could come two years late as Pentagon works to replenish stocks depleted in Middle East military campaign

The US has warned Japan to expect serious delays in the delivery of 400 Tomahawk missiles as the Pentagon prioritises rebuilding weapons stockpiles that have been severely depleted during its military campaign against Iran.

US defence secretary Pete Hegseth told Shinjiro Koizumi, his Japanese counterpart, about the delay in a call earlier this month, according to several people familiar with the discussions.

The interruption is a big blow to Japan, which ordered Tomahawks for the first time in 2024 to enhance deterrence against China. The missiles have a 1,600km range, giving Japan a “counterstrike” capability to hit coastal China. The $2.35bn deal came after Washington had increasingly urged its Asian ally to increase its defence spending.

The Pentagon decision comes as the US military scrambles to replenish stockpiles of missiles that were used in large numbers during Operation Epic Fury. The FT reported last month that Washington had already warned several European allies, including the UK and Poland, to expect significant delays in the delivery of weapons systems they have ordered from the US.

The Tomahawk delays have repercussions for the Indo-Pacific where Japan is the most important US ally. Regional allies were already concerned about the Pentagon being forced to move weapons from Asia to the Middle East — which critics say undermines statements that Asia was the priority theatre after the western hemisphere.

“Despite repeated promises from top administration officials that they would prioritise Asia, the Pentagon is now giving precedence to the Middle East,” said Zack Cooper, an Asia security expert at the American Enterprise Institute. “Given the lengthy timelines for munitions production, Asian allies and partners will continue to feel the impact of the Iran War long after it ends.”

Japan had expected to receive two batches of 200 missiles each by April 2028. One person familiar with the situation said Washington had warned that the delays could add as much as two years to the current delivery schedule.

According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the US fired more than 1,000 Tomahawks out of an estimated prewar inventory of 3,100 during the five weeks of military operations against Iran. CSIS said that in took roughly four years to deliver Tomahawks to the US military from the time Congress has provided funding.

The high volume of missiles used against Iran coupled with the relocation of weapons — particularly interceptor missiles for the US-supplied Thaad system in South Korea — from Asia to the Middle East have intensified alarm about whether the US military has enough weapons to help Taiwan in a conflict with China.

Yuki Tatsumi, a Japanese defence expert at the Institute for Indo-Pacific Security, said the delays would cause a “considerable complication” for Japan as it prepares to update its national security and defence strategies this year.

“The current plan has been built on the assumption that Japan receives this delivery on time, with the ongoing revision [of the strategies] looking to potentially boost the acquisition of Tomahawk even further,” she said. “It is an integral part of Japan’s effort to enhance its deterrence capability.”

Kenji Minemura, an Asia defence expert at The Canon Institute for Global Studies, stressed that the Tomahawks were critical because Tokyo has almost no equivalent for China’s 2,000-plus long-range missiles that can hit targets in Japan.

“Closing this ‘missile gap’ is the purpose behind the counterstrike capability the Japanese government is now building, and the Tomahawk is its centrepiece,” said Minemura. “A delay in US deliveries of Tomahawks . . . will almost inevitably erode the joint US-Japan deterrent against China still further.”

Tatsumi and Minemura both said the Tomahawk delivery delays would force Japan to accelerate the development and mass production of domestic missiles, including the extended-range Type 12 and Hyper Velocity Gliding Projectile.

The Pentagon declined to comment. Japan’s embassy in the US said the two allies engage in frequent talks but declined to comment on the specifics of any issues discussed.

Incumbents are increasingly ceding ground to virtual rivals who pay to access their network

The UK’s biggest mobile operators experienced their worst year of customer losses on record in 2025, as established operators lost ground to cheap insurgent rivals.

BT, Virgin Media O2 and VodafoneThree lost a combined 972,000 mobile subscribers last year according to data compiled by Enders Analysis, which estimated that low-cost rivals including Lebara, iD Mobile and Sky gained more than 1.5mn by comparison. They lost 724,000 in 2024.

The losses come as a wave of challengers prepare to enter the UK telecoms market with cut-price offerings designed to entice customers, including those from bank Monzo and retailer Lidl, which will further intensify retail competition. 

Those brands are also likely to be joined by Digi, a Romanian-based operator which has already launched in several European markets such as Spain. Digi already offers WiFi services in the UK and said earlier this month that it planned to launch a UK mobile service.

Kester Mann, analyst at FDM CCS Insight, said the surge in growth of virtual providers reflected “a trend towards customers more actively seeking out affordable mobile plans amid the continued squeeze on household budgets.”

“This is supported by growth of online sales, lengthening replacement cycles for mobile phones and a growing willingness among consumers to consider non-traditional telecom brands,” he added. 

The new entrants are mobile virtual network operators, or MVNOs, which strike wholesale deals to use the networks run by large telecoms groups, meaning they do not need their own infrastructure.  

The set-up poses a double-layered challenge for network operators, who battle their MVNO rivals for customers while simultaneously trying to entice them into signing wholesale deals to use their infrastructure, rather than opt for that of their competitors. 

One mobile network executive lamented that MVNOs “subtract value” from traditional operators, saying they wished someone would “remove them” from the UK market.  

Others, however, have played down the MVNO threat.

“You’ve got to be careful, it’s a volume play with MVNOs,” BT boss Allison Kirkby told the FT, pointing to the fact that cheap tariffs mean a large number of customers are necessary for smaller groups to be viable.

“A lot of the customers that buy into MVNOs, they churn more frequently, much more frequently than the average customer that we have,” she added.

At the current rate, MVNO market share will grow from 21 per cent in 2025 to 26 per cent in 2030, according to estimates from FDM CCS.

Their growth has accelerated in recent years due to the advent of eSims, which allow customers to quickly sign up and download the service in a few clicks, as well as external factors such as the cost of living issues.

The 2025 merger of VodafoneThree also boosted MVNOs, after the two companies were forced to offer attractive wholesale offers to rivals in an effort to get the deal signed off by the UK’s Competition and Markets Authority. 

“Great deals for MVNOs have arguably been a collective strategic mis-step by the operators, but the VodafoneThree remedies now tie them to that for many years to come,” Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis said.

BT, Virgin Media O2 and VodafoneThree declined to comment.

Commerzbank rallies shareholders in fight for independence from UniCredit

At its annual meeting this week, the German lender’s long-suffering shareholders finally had something to cheer

Under siege from UniCredit’s hostile takeover attempt, Commerzbank this week sought to rally shareholders behind its independence at what could become the 156-year-old lender’s final annual meeting as a standalone institution.

In a Wiesbaden conference hall, hundreds of retail investors, employees in bright yellow T-shirts and fund managers gathered on Wednesday not just to celebrate a resurgent share price, but also to defend a lender that for years symbolised the frustrations of German banking.

The mood was defiant. Commerzbank shares are trading at a 15-year high after rising about 40 per cent over the past year, outperforming the Stoxx Europe 600 Banks index and marking a reversal for a stock long associated with chronic underperformance. About 1,000 shareholders attended the meeting — up from 740 last year — representing roughly 42 per cent of the bank’s capital.

Chief executive Bettina Orlopp received loud applause as she presented a strategy promising to return roughly half of Commerzbank’s current market capitalisation to shareholders by 2030.

Yet, the celebrations unfolded under the shadow of UniCredit, now the German lender’s biggest shareholder by far, with a stake that could command a majority at a typical AGM. With a €39bn hostile tender offer out in the market, UniCredit skipped the meeting.

“There is still an elephant in the room,” Andreas Thomae, of Deka Investment, said of Commerzbank’s largest shareholder, comparing the Italian bank’s takeover approach to “an elephant in a china shop”.

Founded in Hamburg in 1870 to finance German foreign trade, Commerzbank grew into one of Germany’s biggest banks. But its takeover of Dresdner Bank during the 2008 financial crisis became a defining trauma, saddling the bank with billions in toxic investment banking assets and forcing Berlin into an €18.2bn bailout. The German government remains Commerzbank’s second-largest shareholder with a 12 per cent stake.

Years of restructurings, capital raisings and weak profitability turned Commerzbank into one of Europe’s least-loved banking stocks. Now, suddenly, the bank has become valuable again.

“We know that a high share price helps in the portfolio, but it also helps us remain independent,” said Markus Freyaldenhoven, an employee representative from Düsseldorf wearing a sweatshirt bearing the slogan “We own yellow” — the bank’s corporate colour. Freyaldenhoven proudly checked his portfolio on his phone: up 44 per cent on shares he bought himself and 12 per cent on stock received through an employee participation programme.

Employees-turned-shareholders in yellow hats and T-shirts sat in the shape of a heart in front of the stage, cheering for Orlopp — despite collectively owning less than 1 per cent of Commerzbank’s shares and management recently announcing another round of 3,000 job cuts.

Retail investors, many of whom had endured years of losses, also rallied behind management. “This is the decisive AGM for Commerzbank’s independence,” said 77-year-old shareholder Rainer Grobe, who called the government’s sale of shares to UniCredit in September 2024 which kicked off the Italian bank’s stake building “a blunder”.

Others were more resigned. Bettina Petzold from Wiesbaden, who bought shares shortly before UniCredit disclosed its stake, said: “Commerzbank doesn’t stand a chance — it’s going to be swallowed up.”

UniCredit has offered 0.485 UniCredit shares for each Commerzbank share, valuing the target at about €38.6bn on the day of the meeting — below Commerzbank’s own market capitalisation of roughly €40.9bn.

Chair Jens Weidmann urged investors not to tender shares into UniCredit’s exchange offer, while Orlopp warned a takeover could lead to “deep cuts, massive job losses and a retreat from entire business areas”.

UniCredit’s offer attracted only 0.02 per cent of Commerzbank shares ahead of the meeting. But investor representatives cautioned resistance alone would not be enough.

This period is widely regarded as the phoney war, before the Italian bank launches a takeover attempt in earnest. Hendrik Schmidt, of asset manager DWS, warned that hoping for a “white knight” investor to counter UniCredit was unrealistic. “For us, one thing is clear: UniCredit will not let up. It has the necessary financial resources and the time,” he said.

Klaus Nieding, of shareholder association DSW, said that “with crossing the 30 per cent threshold, the gate to a takeover is now wide open”. He urged UniCredit chief executive Andrea Orcel to abandon “tactics of creeping up and misinformation” and instead pursue talks about a possible “merger of equals”. UniCredit’s market capitalisation is €108bn.

Orlopp and Orcel held talks earlier this year after UniCredit unveiled its bid but failed to reach an agreement. Not all investors reject the idea of a deal outright. “I would be satisfied with €70,” one small shareholder quipped, roughly double Commerzbank’s current share price.

Records seen by FT show Tehran used procurement network in Gulf state that it later hit with missiles and drones

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards used a United Arab Emirates-based procurement network to buy advanced Chinese satellite equipment linked to its drone programme, according to records seen by the FT.

The deal is highly sensitive because it shows the Gulf state hosted a company supplying communications kit to the same branch of the guards that launched missiles at the UAE in response to US-Israeli strikes.

Leaked UAE commercial contracts and shipping records show how the IRGC’s Aerospace Force acquired the military-grade Chinese satellite communication technology in late 2025 through a UAE-based company.

The UAE bore the brunt of Iran’s retaliation to the US-Israeli assault, with the Islamic republic firing more than 2,800 drones and missiles at the Gulf state, including at civilian targets.

Despite Abu Dhabi’s hawkish stance towards the Islamic republic, before the war the UAE had traditionally been a centre for Iranian businesses operating offshore.

As it has become the region’s dominant trade hub over the past two decades, the UAE’s various emirates established free zones where supervision of trade is less effective, analysts say, fuelling concerns that they can be exploited for illicit trade and sanctions busting.

The equipment for the guards was routed through Telesun, located in the emirate of Ras al Khaimah. The company arranged for the shipment of roughly 1.8 tonnes of Chinese-made satellite antenna equipment from Shanghai to Iran, via the Jebel Ali container port in Dubai.

FT analysis of satellite imagery and shipping location data has found that an Iranian ship that was used for the final leg of the delivery in November broadcast false navigational information about itself to other ships in an effort to disguise the fact that it ever travelled to Iran.

Together, the documents and shipping analysis reveal how the IRGC continued to draw on commercial networks in the UAE to acquire strategically sensitive communications technology even after western sanctions targeted its military procurement apparatus.

The IRGC later used these capabilities in attacks that severely damaged US military bases around the Middle East, killed 13 US service personnel and left hundreds injured. The UAE has borne the brunt of Iran’s retaliation to the US-Israeli assault, with the Islamic republic firing more than 2,800 drones and missiles at the Gulf state.

UAE invoices, packing lists and ocean freight records seen by the FT show that Telesun arranged delivery of a Chinese-made 4.5-metre motorised satellite antenna manufactured by StarWin to be sent from Shanghai to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas aboard the vessel Zhong Gu Yin Chuan.

FT analysis has confirmed that the Zhong Gu Yin Chuan, a Chinese container ship, arrived from Shanghai into Dubai at the Jebel Ali Container Terminal 1 on August 28. Documents seen by the FT state that it left a container in the port that was collected by the Rama III, an Iranian ship, which called at the same quayside on November 23.

The Rama III then set off a day later. According to GPS signals broadcast from the ship, it sailed out of the Gulf before taking a brief pause off the coast of Oman.

But satellite imagery taken on November 25 reveals the vessel was not at its reported position. This suggests that the ship was “spoofing” — sending out false position reports to neighbouring ships in an effort to disguise its movements.

On November 29, a vessel of the same size, colour and shape as the Rama III appears in satellite pictures in Iran’s Shahid Rajaee port in Bandar Abbas.

This is the port named in the documents seen by the FT as the delivery destination for the consignment.

The shipment — dated October 2025 and described in customs documents as “antenna and accessories” — weighed nearly 1.8 tonnes. It arrived in six cases and was consigned to Ertebatat Faragostar Kish (EFK) in Iran.

According to a contract seen by the FT, Telesun acquired the Chinese equipment on behalf of EFK, an Iranian telecommunications company working on a project for Saman Industrial Group, another Iranian group.

The US Treasury sanctioned Saman in December 2023. It said the company “serves as a commercial front company” for the Aerospace Force Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization, the research and development arm of the guards’ ballistic missile, electronic warfare and drone programmes. EFK is not under any western sanctions.

The US also alleged that Saman helped the guards acquire drone-related equipment through intermediary companies spanning multiple jurisdictions, including antennas, servomotors and other “UAV-applicable items”. The EU has separately sanctioned the Self Sufficiency Jihad Organization, and said it has provided Iranian drones to Russia.

Telesun describes itself as a UAE-based provider of fixed and mobile satellite communications systems across the Middle East and North Africa, offering services from “design to installation & commissioning”.

Telesun did not respond to questions from the FT. The UAE foreign ministry and Iranian embassy in London did not respond.

The shipping agent in Iran was Blue Calm Marine Services, according to the bill of lading. Blue Calm was sanctioned by the US in 2023 for facilitating shipments for a company that provided parts to develop missile propellant to the Iranian defence ministry.

Last month the FT reported that the guards’ Aerospace Force had secretly acquired a satellite — launched by the Chinese company The Earth Eye — that it used to monitor US military bases and Gulf infrastructure before attacks in March.

Earlier this month, the US sanctioned The Earth Eye for supporting Iranian military operations. “The United States will continue to take action to hold China-based entities accountable for their support to Iran,” the State Department said. “The targeting of US service members and partners will not go unanswered.”