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Alliance chief Mark Rutte set to meet defence groups at meeting in Brussels next week

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte will press European arms companies next week to increase investment and boost production, as the defence alliance seeks to strengthen the continent’s military capabilities and appease US President Donald Trump.

Rutte is set to meet top European defence groups in Brussels to urge them to move quickly and to lay the groundwork for key announcements at Nato’s annual summit in Ankara in July, people familiar with the matter told the FT.

Ahead of the meeting, companies have been asked to share information about major investments and their ability to boost production, with a particular focus on areas such as air defence and long-range missiles.

Rutte regularly meets with Europe’s top defence executives but gathering the representatives of a large number of companies at a single meeting is unusual, said people in the industry. His message on what the alliance expects from the groups also underscores the urgency inside Nato to demonstrate industrial expansion at the leaders’ gathering in Turkey.

Many of the continent’s biggest arms makers such as Rheinmetall, Safran, Airbus, Saab, MBDA and Leonardo were expected to send representatives to the meeting.

Airbus said: “We do not comment on the details of private, informal meetings.” Rheinmetall, MBDA and Leonardo declined to comment. Safran and Saab did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Nato wants Europe’s arms makers to help meet Trump’s demands for more spending on defence as the bloc seeks to address his anger over the alliance’s perceived failure to support his war against Iran. The investments are also aimed at reducing the continent’s reliance on the US amid rising concerns about Washington’s commitment to the region.

At last year’s Nato summit in The Hague, members agreed to Trump’s call to increase defence spending to 5 per cent of GDP. Focusing the Ankara meeting on arms deals would demonstrate the impact of that announcement and allow Trump to claim credit, said officials briefed on the preparations.

“It’s about making the defence spending increase look more real,” said one of the officials.

Rutte wants Europe’s defence companies to invest rapidly without waiting for significant new government orders.

European arms companies and defence ministries have clashed in recent years over the root cause of the continent’s lack of military production. Companies have accused governments of not signing enough long-term procurement contracts, while states argue the sector has failed to increase production capacity quickly enough.

Despite those tensions, Rutte also wants to hear from the companies about the barriers to increasing production to meet Nato’s needs, said two people in the industry.

While European groups have moved to address ammunition shortages, access to long-distance missiles is now one of the main problems for European capitals.

Berlin is trying to buy American Tomahawk cruise missiles to bolster its defences against Russia, an effort that has become more urgent after the Pentagon scrapped plans to deploy its own equipment. At the same time Europe is pressing domestic companies to accelerate plans to develop alternatives.

The Pentagon in early May announced plans to withdraw 5,000 troops from Germany amid a spat between Trump and Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the Iran war. That conflict has also caused the US to burn through “years” of critical munitions.

Both developments served as fresh “wake-up calls” to Europeans about the need to quickly bolster their production capacity and capabilities, some of the people said.

If European Nato allies hit the 5 per cent spending target, it would amount to a combined $1tn increase in annual defence expenditure in 2035 compared with 2024.

Nato officials say they want headline agreements in key areas where European armies rely heavily on the US: air defence, long-range missiles and intelligence and surveillance capabilities such as space satellites.

Some of the companies will present plans next week to address the need for more factories and personnel, securing crucial raw materials and strengthening supply chains, while one of the people added that talks would also discuss how to reduce dependence on Chinese and Taiwanese components.

“The secretary-general regularly meets with industry and financial institutions from across the alliance to encourage increased production, innovation and investment to meet our capability needs,” a Nato official said.

STOCK ANALYSIS

Smart Money 13F × Q1 2026 Earnings | May 16, 2026

GOOG/GOOGL — Q1 EPS $5.11 vs $2.63 BEAT +$2.48 | Rev +21.8% YoY Buffett tripled GOOGL (17.85M→54.25M), added new GOOG. Third Point, Lone Pine, Himalaya all in. Altimeter exited — poorly timed. Signal: STRONG BUY. Consensus validated.

META — Q1 EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 BEAT +$3.77 | Rev +33.1% YoY Tiger Global, Third Point, Altimeter all added. ValueAct trimmed modestly. One of the cleanest buy-and-beat stories of the quarter. Signal: STRONG BUY. Validated.

AMZN — Q1 EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 BEAT +$1.15 | Rev +16.6% YoY Ackman added aggressively (9.61M→11.45M). Tiger Global held 10M. Lone Pine exited — looks like an error. Signal: BUY. Ackman & Tiger validated.

NVDA — Last Q EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 BEAT +$0.08 | Rev +73.2% YoY Altimeter (8.1M→9.34M), Tiger (11M→12M), Soros added. Third Point near-fully exited (2.95M→190K). Signal: BUY with split. Buyers look more right.

AVGO — Last Q EPS $2.05 vs $2.03 BEAT +$0.02 | Rev +29.5% YoY Tiger, Third Point, Druckenmiller, Discovery all initiated. Lone Pine exited — lone dissenter. Signal: BUY. Broad institutional consensus.

TSM — Q1 EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 BEAT +$0.19 | Rev +40.6% YoY Tiger added (3.7M→5.6M), Altimeter added. Lone Pine cut heavily (3.05M→1.39M). Signal: BUY. Tiger & Altimeter validated vs Lone Pine.

MSFT — Q3 FY26 EPS $4.27 vs $4.05 BEAT +$0.22 | Rev +18.3% YoY Gates exited (7.69M). Lone Pine, Third Point, Tiger all sold. Ackman bought new 5.65M — stark contrarian. Stock +3% today on CNBC report. Signal: DIVERGENCE. Ackman contrarian buy, watch closely.

UBER — Q1 EPS $0.72 vs $0.69 BEAT +$0.03 | Rev slight miss | +14.5% YoY Altimeter added sharply (+42%, 5.59M→7.97M). Signal: BUY. Altimeter conviction validated on EPS.

APP — Q1 EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 BEAT +$0.12 | Rev +58.9% YoY Lone Pine near-doubled (0.78M→1.46M). Tiger trimmed. Signal: STRONG BUY. Lone Pine's best call of the quarter.

INTC — Q1 EPS $0.29 vs $0.02 MASSIVE BEAT +$0.27 | Rev +7.4% YoY Tiger (new 1.6M), Druckenmiller (new 411K) both initiated simultaneously. Signal: TURNAROUND BUY. Simultaneous elite initiation + huge beat.

DAL — Q1 EPS $0.64 vs $0.58 BEAT +$0.06 | Rev +9.4% YoY Buffett new position 39.81M shares — extraordinary given his historical airline aversion. Druckenmiller exited before Buffett bought. Signal: BUY (Buffett). Druckenmiller wrong on timing.

NCLH — Q1 EPS $0.23 vs $0.14 BEAT +$0.09 | Rev +9.6% YoY Elliott new 13.19M shares. Signal: BUY. Elliott bought ahead of a clean beat.

HPE — Q1 EPS $0.65 vs $0.59 BEAT +$0.06 | Rev +18.4% YoY Elliott added aggressively (18.63M→27.42M). Signal: BUY. Elliott validated.

FISV — Q1 EPS $1.79 vs $1.57 BEAT +$0.22 | Rev flat YoY Jana Partners doubled (2.25M→4.44M). Signal: BUY. Jana's best call — big beat.

KMX — Fiscal Q4 EPS $0.34 vs $0.20 BEAT +$0.14 | Rev -1% YoY Starboard new 6.2M. Signal: ACTIVIST BUY. EPS beat validates entry point.

CPNG — Q1 EPS -$0.15 vs -$0.09 MISS -$0.06 | Rev +7.5% YoY (decelerating) Altimeter exited 15.68M, Lone Pine exited, Druckenmiller cut 6.8M→2.7M. Tiger Global massively added (26.3M→34.6M). Signal: CONTESTED. Sellers validated by miss. Tiger is the contrarian — biggest single divergence of the season.

RIG — Q1 EPS -$0.03 vs $0.08 MISS -$0.11 | Rev +19.3% YoY Elliott new 15.63M. Oil at $105/bbl today. Signal: SPECULATIVE. Revenue beats; EPS misses. Elliott playing offshore drilling cycle + oil price surge.

TRIP — Q1 EPS -$0.11 vs -$0.07 MISS -$0.04 | Rev -4.0% YoY Starboard added (9.6M→10.8M), Einhorn new 1.56M. Soros exited. Signal: ACTIVIST ONLY. Soros right to exit. Starboard & Einhorn playing restructuring/M&A.

LUV — Q1 EPS $0.45 vs $0.47 MISS -$0.02 | Rev +12.8% YoY Elliott cut massively (-41%, 51.13M→30.35M). Signal: EXIT. Elliott right — activist campaign stalling, miss confirms.

TOST — Q1 EPS $0.20 vs $0.27 MISS -$0.07 | Rev +21.9% YoY ValueAct near-doubled (8.02M→12.9M). Signal: ACTIVIST LONG-TERM. EPS miss near-term headwind but rev growth solid. ValueAct playing operational improvement.

PTON — Q1 EPS $0.06 vs $0.08 MISS -$0.02 | Rev +1.1% YoY Einhorn added aggressively (0.25M→10.11M, +40x). Signal: HIGH RISK TURNAROUND. Einhorn making a very large bet on recovery.

WULF — Q1 EPS -$1.01 vs -$0.20 MASSIVE MISS -$0.81 | Rev -1.1% YoY Lone Pine new 19.92M (biggest new position). Signal: PURE SPECULATION. Power assets & crypto infrastructure thesis — not an earnings story.

HLT — Q1 EPS $2.01 vs $1.98 BEAT +$0.03 | Rev +9.0% YoY Ackman exited 3.03M. Lone Pine added modestly. Signal: MIXED. Ackman sold a beater to rotate into MSFT.

ARM — Q1 EPS $0.60 vs $0.58 BEAT +$0.02 | Rev +20.1% YoY Altimeter new 1.72M. Signal: BUY. Clean beat, AI chip royalty story.

SNOW — FY Q4 EPS $0.32 vs $0.27 BEAT +$0.05 | Rev +30.1% YoY Altimeter reduced. Tiger maintained. Signal: HOLD. Beat but growth decelerating.

Q1 2026 13F Season Rankings | May 16, 2026

Bottom line: Buffett and Jana were the sharpest this quarter — both bought into stocks that subsequently delivered strong beats. Altimeter and Elliott showed disciplined conviction with earnings validation on most moves. The biggest open debate is Ackman (MSFT contrarian buy) vs. the crowd, and Tiger vs. consensus on CPNG. Both will be resolved next quarter.

SUMMARY SCORECARD

SMART MONEY REPORT — Q1 2026 13F Analysis

Crossed with Q1 Earnings Results & Price Performance | May 16, 2026

METHODOLOGY

Each major cross-fund theme is scored on three axes:

TIER 1 — HIGHEST CONVICTION TRADES (Multi-fund consensus + earnings validated)

🟢 GOOGLE (GOOG/GOOGL) — STRONG BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29): EPS $5.11 vs $2.63 est → MASSIVE BEAT +$2.48 | Rev $109.9B vs $107.0B | +21.8% YoY

Verdict: One of the most powerful signals on the sheet. Buffett tripling his Google stake is extraordinary. The Q1 earnings validated the move decisively — the $2.48 EPS beat is one of the largest surprise figures in Mega-cap history. Funds that bought GOOG/GOOGL ahead of the quarter were right. Altimeter's exit looks poorly timed in hindsight.

🟢 META — STRONG BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29): EPS $10.44 vs $6.67 est → BEAT +$3.77 | Rev $56.3B vs $55.6B | +33.1% YoY

Verdict: META's $3.77 EPS beat is exceptional and validates the bulls. The broadly distributed ownership among hedge funds combined with a monster quarter makes this an extremely high-quality signal. ValueAct trimming is likely rebalancing, not a thesis change.

🟢 NVIDIA (NVDA) — BUY SIGNAL (with nuance)

Most Recent Earnings (Feb 25): EPS $1.62 vs $1.54 est → BEAT +$0.08 | Rev $68.1B vs $66.1B | +73.2% YoY (Q4 FY26 — next report upcoming)

Verdict: The split between Altimeter/Tiger (adding aggressively) and Third Point (nearly exiting) is notable. Given NVDA beat its last Q and continues its AI infrastructure supercycle, the buyers appear more aligned with fundamentals. Third Point's exit may reflect portfolio concentration concerns rather than a bearish thesis. Today's price action (-4.4%) tied to geopolitical news, not fundamentals.

🟢 AMZN — BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29): EPS $2.78 vs $1.63 est → MASSIVE BEAT +$1.15 | Rev $181.5B vs $177.3B | +16.6% YoY

Verdict: A $1.15 EPS beat on $181B revenue is enormous. Ackman and Tiger holding/buying AMZN ahead of an outsized beat is a validated thesis. Lone Pine's exit looks premature given the quarter.

🟢 AVGO (Broadcom) — BUY SIGNAL (AI custom silicon theme)

Most Recent Earnings (Mar 4): EPS $2.05 vs $2.03 → BEAT +$0.02 | Rev $19.3B vs $19.3B | +29.5% YoY (slight beat — next Q1 coming)

Verdict: Broad consensus among top funds to add AVGO. The AI custom silicon thesis remains intact. Lone Pine's exit stands out as the lone dissenter among the group.

🟢 TSM (Taiwan Semiconductor) — BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (Apr 16): EPS $3.49 vs $3.30 → BEAT +$0.19 | Rev $35.9B vs $35.4B | +40.6% YoY

Verdict: TSM delivered a superb quarter — 40.6% YoY growth is exceptional. Tiger and Altimeter bought ahead of the beat. Lone Pine's significant reduction looks like a mistake in retrospect given the quarter's quality.

TIER 2 — HIGH CONVICTION, MIXED EARNINGS SIGNALS

🟡 MSFT — DIVERGENCE SIGNAL (Smart money split)

Q1 Earnings (Apr 29 — MSFT's Q3 FY26): EPS $4.27 vs $4.05 → BEAT +$0.22 | Rev $82.9B vs $81.4B | +18.3% YoY

Verdict: This is the most fascinating divergence of the filing season. MSFT beat earnings, yet some of the best funds were selling heavily. Ackman's buy-while-others-flee is a contrarian signal. His track record of making bold, concentrated bets makes this worth watching. The CNBC report on Ackman's MSFT position drove the stock +3% today. The broader fund selling may reflect rotation into more direct AI plays (NVDA, AVGO, TSM) rather than a bearish MSFT thesis per se.

🟡 UBER — BUY SIGNAL (slight miss, structural story intact)

Q1 Earnings (May 6): EPS $0.72 vs $0.69 → BEAT +$0.03 | Rev $13.2B vs $13.3B → slight rev miss | +14.5% YoY

Verdict: Altimeter's aggressive add ahead of Q1 paid off on EPS but revenue missed slightly. The +42% share increase suggests very high conviction. At +14.5% YoY growth, the structural ride-share / delivery thesis is intact.

🟡 APP (AppLovin) — STRONG BUY SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (May 6): EPS $3.56 vs $3.44 → BEAT +$0.12 | Rev $1.84B vs $1.77B | +58.9% YoY

Verdict: 58.9% revenue growth and an EPS beat make this one of the cleanest "right call" signals. Lone Pine's near-doubling of APP ahead of the quarter is a validated high-conviction trade.

🟡 INTC (Intel) — SPECULATIVE BUY (turnaround bet)

Q1 Earnings (Apr 23): EPS $0.29 vs $0.02 → MASSIVE BEAT +$0.27 | Rev $13.6B vs $12.4B | +7.4% YoY

Verdict: INTC beat by a massive margin on both EPS (+$0.27) and revenue (+$1.2B vs consensus). Two elite macro/growth funds initiating simultaneously, combined with an outsized beat, makes this a credible turnaround signal. Intel's AI chip ambitions and foundry services are the likely thesis.

🟡 DAL (Delta Air Lines) — BUY SIGNAL (Buffett conviction)

Q1 Earnings (Apr 8): EPS $0.64 vs $0.58 → BEAT +$0.06 | Rev $14.2B vs $14.0B | +9.4% YoY

Verdict: Buffett initiating 39.81M shares of DAL is one of the most headline-worthy moves of the filing season. Q1 beat on both EPS and revenue. The Druckenmiller-Buffett divergence on DAL is striking — Druckenmiller exiting while Buffett enters is a classic "passing the baton" in timing.

TIER 3 — CONTRARIAN / BEARISH THESIS TRADES

🔴 CPNG (Coupang) — SELL/EXIT SIGNAL

Q1 Earnings (May 5): EPS -$0.15 vs -$0.09 → MISS -$0.06 | Rev $8.5B vs $8.5B (in-line) | +7.5% YoY (decelerating)

Verdict: A rare case of near-unanimous smart money exit validated by a subsequent earnings miss. Three elite funds were right to exit — CPNG missed on EPS and growth is decelerating materially (from 10.9% to 7.5% YoY). Tiger Global's aggressive ADD to 34.6M from 26.3M is the massive contrarian bet. This is the single biggest fund-vs-fund divergence on the sheet.

🔴 TOST (Toast) — CAUTION SIGNAL (Overvalued vs. results)

Q1 Earnings (May 7): EPS $0.20 vs $0.27 → MISS -$0.07 | Rev $1.63B vs $1.63B (in-line) | +21.9% YoY

Verdict: ValueAct is taking a very concentrated, activist-style position. But Q1 missed on EPS, which may create near-term headwind. The +22% revenue growth is solid, suggesting ValueAct is playing a longer-term operational improvement thesis. Remains to be watched.

🔴 RIG (Transocean) — SPECULATIVE / HIGH RISK

Q1 Earnings (May 4): EPS -$0.03 vs $0.08 → MISS -$0.11 | Rev $1.08B vs $1.02B (rev beat) | +19.3% YoY

Verdict: Elliott bought RIG while it missed EPS badly. However, revenue beat and +19.3% YoY growth shows operational momentum. Elliott often takes positions in distressed/operationally improving companies ahead of restructuring catalysts. The offshore drilling cycle could be the thesis — especially as oil just broke $105/bbl today. High risk, high reward.

🔴 TRIP (TripAdvisor) — BEARISH VALIDATION

Q1 Earnings (May 7): EPS -$0.11 vs -$0.07 → MISS -$0.04 | Rev $382.4M vs $384.7M | -4.0% YoY (declining business)

Verdict: TRIP missed and is in revenue decline. Starboard and Einhorn are activist plays — they likely believe the company can be restructured or sold. Soros correctly exited before the miss. This is a pure "sum of the parts" activist bet, not a growth story.

🔴 WULF (TeraWulf) — HIGH RISK SPECULATIVE

Q1 Earnings (May 8): EPS -$1.01 vs -$0.20 → MASSIVE MISS -$0.81 | Rev $34M (in-line) | -1.1% YoY

Verdict: One of the riskiest calls on the sheet. Lone Pine made WULF their largest new position despite the company missing EPS by $0.81 and showing revenue decline. This is a pure crypto infrastructure / AI data center power bet — the thesis is not about current earnings but about future hashrate capacity and power assets. Needs monitoring.

• Elliott Management: massively cut from 51.13M → 30.35M shares (-41%)