WSJ : How the World of Work Will Change Over the Next 20 Years

How the World of Work Will Change Over the Next 20 Years
Five experts look ahead and imagine a future that looks totally different

  • Artificial intelligence could transform workplace performance measurement by analyzing real-time employee data to optimize workflows and collaboration.
  • A shrinking workforce in Europe, Japan and the U.S. could necessitate increased investment in vocational training and skill-based employee development.
  • The future workplace will integrate AI and human collaboration, potentially reducing middle management and emphasizing in-person connection and emotional intelligence.

The world of work has experienced seismic shifts throughout the past five years.

The pandemic ushered in an era of remote and hybrid work. Conversations once deemed taboo in the workplace, like mental health and shrinking boundaries between work and personal life, have become priorities for employers. People are working past the typical retirement age of 65, which means there are five generations in the workplace, all with different work and management styles.

The next two decades will bring even more consequential change, with artificial intelligence driving much of the reshaping of work. It’s already doing tasks once relegated to newly minted college graduates in many professions. It will have an impact on the role of managers, how organizations measure business outcomes and accelerate tasks that once took months.

With all of this in mind, we asked five workplace experts and practitioners to weigh in on the question: What is the future of work?

Data, data, data
AI’s measurement capabilities will dramatically impact the way leaders drive performance. What you measure you can impact, and there’s a well-researched connection between employee well-being and performance.

Instead of relying solely on self-reported data or sentiment surveys, we’ll start to see real-time signals across the employee experience and we’ll learn more about things like how someone’s working hour to hour, who they’re working with to drive outcomes, whether time or location meaningfully affects performance, or even how communication patterns and influence show up in ways that correlate with results.

Imagine knowing that a salesperson does her best work from 3:15 p.m. to 7 p.m. in New York while a teammate in Portugal performs best during complementary hours. AI-driven systems could reveal these patterns by analyzing output, quality and sales impact, and even integrate optional wellness data employees choose to share themselves from their devices. With these insights, AI agents could align workflows around each person’s natural rhythm, creating high-impact, efficient collaboration.

Today, many chief performance officers are focused on building strong AI governance to protect employee data and ensure privacy. Once that foundation is in place, the next era of work could look entirely different.

Cara Brennan Allamano, a former chief people officer at Lattice, an HR software platform, and co-founder of People Tech Partners, a group of HR leaders working to bring recruiting tools to the marketplace

A shrinking workforce
There will be fewer available workers in Europe, Japan and the U.S. over this time frame and the demographic shift will be profound.

In addition, there will be even fewer young adults available for colleges in the U.S., even if they decide the investment is worth it. The implications of this shift will be the need for more investments in vocational and trade schools, and the need to invest in skill-based, not pedigree-based training.

There will also be more on-the-job specific training. Companies will become classrooms. Companies that want a more sustainable relationship with employees will need an investment model versus a transactional one: We will invest in your skills so you can be a competitive professional in your domain.

Peter Fasolo, a former executive vice president and chief human resources officer at Johnson & Johnson, and director of the Human Resource Policy Institute at Boston University’s Questrom School of Business

My colleague, AI
In 25 years, the workplace will likely be unrecognizable, with employees and AI operating as one. Yes, there will be tasks and entire jobs taken over by AI, but we will all be elevated to a whole new superpower to make critical and creative decisions. The idea that work was once done strictly by people will seem quaint to some. Tasks that took entire teams, and months to complete, will be crunched down to a few minutes, with success measured on metrics we can’t imagine today.

The middle layers of management—so central to today’s corporate structure—could be a vestige of the past. The role of the leader too will change, as they directly oversee a collaboration of people and intelligent systems. The attitude toward in-person collaboration is growing and 25 years from now, counterintuitively, I believe face-to-face connection won’t just be indispensable, but invaluable. Emotional intelligence will still set leaders apart. Those who blend empathy with tech savvy will be the ones shaping the future.

Alan Guarino, vice chairman and CEO of board services at the global consulting firm Korn Ferry

The power of the gig worker
Advances in quantum computing and AI will enable entrepreneurs to reshape industries with a fraction of the resources they have traditionally required.

In similar fashion, democratized access to AI will power the gig economy, making it easier for companies to engage with skilled contractors as needed. Democratized access to AI tools has resulted in talent oftentimes having access to more powerful tools outside companies and being more adept at using them. For example, companies who are Microsoft clients will likely limit usage to MS Copilot given their need to realize a return on their license fees while a gig worker has the option of using the full suite of tools and capabilities of OpenAI, Google or Anthropic. This will result in greater value being delivered by gig workers than ever before.

Ravin Jesuthasan, senior partner and global leader of transformation services at the consulting firm Mercer

In with the generalists
The nature of work will shift toward generalist roles that value the ability to make connections, work across organizational silos and demonstrate creativity in problem-solving.

Management practices will focus less on planning and forecasting and more on agility. This will result in a reduction in strategic planning, operational planning and analytics roles and emergence of new roles in areas like scenario modeling and change activation. We will also see an increase in investment in building leadership capabilities broadly across all employees to enable the kind of rapid action at the edges of the organization that will be required in this new disrupted era.

Gaurav Gupta, a managing director and head of research and development at the management consulting firm Kotter International

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>>> Weekend Press Summary

FINANCIAL TIMES
-The US Department of Justice has released a limited set of heavily redacted documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, partially fulfilling a congressional order. This release included images of high-profile individuals, such as Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, alongside FBI testimonies. However, the release has also faced criticisms for Congress's failure to release all documents. The disclosures have reopened debates about Epstein's connections with influential figures, generating political controversy. Trump did not comment on the documents during their release.
-The Pretis weapons factory in Sarajevo, historically known for producing artillery shells, has seen dwindling operations since the 1990s. In spring 2024, the American Sitko Acquisition LLC began acquiring shares in Pretis and another factory, Binas, positioning itself as a significant private shareholder alongside the Bosnian government. Led by Will Somerindyke, a former Pentagon contractor and college baseball player, this move signals a new global arms supply chain, focusing on covert, privatized operations for conflicts without direct troop deployments. The ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened demand for specific munitions like 155mm rounds, perceiving them as essential commodities in contemporary warfare.
-The Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Elon Musk's $56B pay package, ruling that the 2024 cancellation was inappropriate. The court confirmed that while Tesla's board improperly approved Musk's 2018 share grant contingent on operational milestones, complete withdrawal was not a suitable remedy. It noted that Musk deserved compensation for his six years of efforts during which Tesla's market capitalization exceeded $1T. The ruling restored 303M shares to Musk, valued at nearly $150B today, despite a previous lower court's cancellation due to the board's ties to him.
-The US launched large-scale strikes against Isis in Syria in response to an ambush that killed two American soldiers and a civilian interpreter. Central Command stated that over 70 targets were hit using fighter jets, helicopters, and artillery, with support from the Jordanian air force. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth characterized the action as a “declaration of vengeance.” The strikes followed the deaths of US personnel during a counterterrorism operation and were part of broader military efforts that led to the killing or detaining of 23 terrorist operatives. As these events unfolded, Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the administration's foreign policy achievements, framing Trump as a "peacemaker" and emphasizing the need for compliance in peacemaking efforts. The Trump administration is focusing its security attention on the western hemisphere and drug trafficking, reducing focus on Europe and the Middle East.
-Oil prices increased after President Donald Trump announced a "total blockade" on US-sanctioned tankers to and from Venezuela, heightening tensions with President Nicolas Maduro. Trump suggested war might be possible, noting that the US is prepared to seize more tankers. The US has already captured the stateless tanker Skipper this month and enhanced its naval presence in the Caribbean. Satellite data reveals an increase in US aircraft in the region and the reactivation of the Roosevelt Roads naval base in Puerto Rico.
-The market for premium vintage champagne is experiencing a revival after a downturn. After the Covid pandemic, collectors invested in champagne, causing prices to double. But now, the increased inventories have triggered a significant price decline, with the Champagne-50 index falling over one-third since December 2022. Recently, trading volumes for vintage champagne have doubled, driven by increased interest in high-end brands like Salon and Selosse Millesime, amid renewed collector confidence sparked by US tariff increases on imported wines. A case of Jacques Selosse Millesime 2002 now trades around £10,000.
-Anne Neuberger, a former US national security official, discusses the potential of a "SpyGPT" that could revolutionize intelligence gathering. She mentioned a 2018 incident where the Israeli Mossad stole extensive Iranian nuclear documents, noting that AI could significantly speed up translation and analysis of such information. SpyGPT could analyze vast intelligence databases to reveal patterns, enhancing the usefulness of intelligence. However, Neuberger also warns that advanced technologies have made democracies susceptible to threats such as drone incursions, cyber-attacks, and disinformation campaigns, citing a recent interruption of an AI-driven cyber-attack by the company Anthropic, linked to a Chinese state-sponsored group.
-President Donald Trump’s tariffs are aiding US Christmas tree growers by increasing demand for real trees amid challenges faced by artificial tree retailers. Grower Bill Burrows reports a shift from artificial to real trees due to price hikes and availability issues with fakes. Despite difficult conditions for many American farmers, Burrows' customers prioritize value, finding real trees more affordable this year. Most growers have maintained their prices, as indicated by a survey from the Real Christmas Tree Board, while plastic tree promoters acknowledge difficulties in selling due to consumer cost concerns.
-The EU has not provided a clear growth roadmap in its revised climate policy, hindering Stellantis's ability to increase investments in Europe, said CEO Antonio Filosa. He criticized the lack of urgent measures needed for the automotive sector’s recovery and stated that without growth, further investment is unlikely, which in turn jeopardizes the supply chain critical for jobs and prosperity in Europe. His comments follow the European Commission's decision to eliminate a law mandating zero emissions from carmakers by 2035.
-Neil Shen’s investment group HSG has acquired the Italian luxury shoe brand Golden Goose for approximately €2.5B, signaling a shift in the company's prospects after it previously canceled its plans for an IPO. HSG is purchasing a majority stake from investors, including current owner Permira, while Temasek will take a minority stake. This acquisition nearly doubles Golden Goose's valuation since Permira bought it for under €1.3B in 2020. The brand had previously planned a Milan listing, which was abandoned due to market conditions; had it proceeded, it would have valued the company at €1.9B. Permira’s partner acknowledged that foregoing the IPO was the right decision given the challenging luxury market climate.
-Britons increasingly see their country as "broken," with optimism following the new government's election quickly diminishing. Housing crises drive this sentiment as many struggle with high rents and prices. While the government has ambitious plans to build 1.5M homes, its combative stance against environmental protections could hinder progress. The prevailing narrative suggests a false dichotomy between housing development and nature conservation, misrepresenting public opinion as divided between pro-development and anti-development sentiments.
NEW YORK TIMES
-The Justice Department released over 13,000 files related to Jeffrey Epstein, responding to congressional pressure and a recent law signed by President Trump. The files, which included photographs and investigative documents, were expected to clarify Epstein's activities and relationships with influential figures. However, the initial batch have not shown any new significant information regarding Epstein's conduct or links to powerful individuals. The Justice Department indicated that more documents would be released in the upcoming weeks.
-One Maria Farmer, who previously worked for Jeffrey Epstein, reported about the latter’s interest in "child pornography" to the FBI in 1996, nearly a decade before his predatory behavior was scrutinized. Farmer has long claimed to have contacted federal investigators that summer, but the FBI never publicly acknowledged her report. In the wake of the recent release of Epstein's files, Farmer spoke to The New York Times about a document dated September 3, 1996, which brought her to tears. She expressed her relief at being "vindicated" after 30 years, but also heartbreak over the F.B.I.'s failure to act on her complaint, stating, "They harmed all of these little girls. That part devastates me." She stressed her feeling of shame towards the agency for their inaction.
-Amid the standoff between the United States and Venezuela, both countries' military forces have been jamming satellite navigation signals in the Caribbean, increasing the risk of collisions or accidents for air and sea traffic. Analysis of data shows that US warships, including the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, have been actively jamming GPS signals to combat drug trafficking linked to the Venezuelan government. In retaliation to this military pressure, Venezuelan forces under President Nicolas Maduro have interfered with GPS signals surrounding critical infrastructure such as military bases, oil refineries, and power plants, as reported by the satellite data firm Spire Global.
-On Friday, the USA launched major airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) in Syria to avenge, as President Trump promised, the deaths of two US Army soldiers and a civilian US interpreter killed in a terrorist attack in the central part of the country last Saturday. The strikes involved fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery, firing more than 100 munitions at more than 70 suspected targets, including weapons storage areas and other buildings to support operations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that the US is not interested in reopening a major new war in the Middle East even as he said that there could be more attacks against IS.
-Over the past year, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has started to alter the childhood vaccination schedule, aiming to align it more closely to Denmark's approach, which uses fewer vaccines. This shift is backed by a related directive from President Trump. Kennedy should be announcing the new vaccination schedule in 2026. An overhaul of the schedule could dodge the evidence-based, committee-led process that has typically guided the USA’s vaccine recommendations, potentially affecting coverage by private insurance and government programs.
-On President Trump’s first day back in office, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill criticized his executive orders for failing to address the “affordability crisis.” This marked a significant shift in political dialogue, as affordability has emerged as a central theme, particularly in the wake of Sherrill's recent gubernatorial victory. The term has gained significant traction, with Trump having used it in his 2024 campaign to promise to “make America affordable again.” Both political parties are now focusing on affordability, which summarizes issues related to the costs of housing, child care, groceries, health care, and utilities. Surveys indicate that economic concerns are the top priority for Americans, who increasingly feel financially challenged.
-The Trump administration is escalating its efforts to deport individuals to countries where they have no prior ties, with a noticeable uptick in legal actions. In November, Dept. of Homeland Security attorneys filed nearly 5,000 motions to dismiss asylum claims, a dramatic rise compared to the few hundred filed monthly during the summer. This increase correlates with the federal government's negotiations for new asylum agreements with select countries like Honduras and Uganda, which are approved as part of the “safe third country” accords. These agreements entail that foreign nations are willing to accept a limited number of US asylum seekers, allowing them to apply for asylum within those countries. Therefore, immigration courts are witnessing government lawyers increasingly requesting judges to dismiss asylum cases without hearings, arguing that applicants should seek protection in these designated safe third countries instead.
-Nuno Loureiro, who grew up in Portugal, aspired to be a scientist. Having made significant contributions to physics in his 20s, he achieved tenure by age 40 and led a research lab at MIT. Colleagues noted his engaging teaching style, likening him to an "Einstein without the crazy hair." The 47-year old Loureiro was fatally shot at his home in Brookline, Massachusetts. His death was linked to a prior shooting at Brown University on December 13, where the suspect, Claudio Neves Valente, killed two and injured nine. Initially, authorities did not connect the two incidents, but later confirmed Valente was responsible for both shootings. Valente was found dead in New Hampshire. No motive was disclosed.
-On four occasions, Ukraine has used drones in the past few weeks to hit oil tankers from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” suggesting that Ukraine’s security services agency feels confident about its ability to launch audacious attacks and claim them publicly. One such attack occurred last Thursday night, some 1200 mi away from Ukraine in the Mediterranean Sea using aerial drones. The other three used sea drones in the Black Sea.
-The NYT has interviewed Raja Shehadeh, a Christian-Palestinian 74-year-old writer, lawyer, and human rights activist, who has lived in Ramallah, West Bank since his family fled Jaffa in 1948. He has rigorously documented life under Israeli occupation, earning acclaim for his precise descriptions and emotional depth, including winning Britain’s Orwell Prize for "Palestinian Walks" and being a finalist for the 2023 National Book Award for We Could Have Been Friends, My Father and I." As a co-founder of Al-Haq, Shehadeh maintains an optimistic belief in the possibility of peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and emphasizes the need for a fundamental reconsideration of narratives about the region. He stresses the importance of documenting the landscape's past and clarifying the historical context of legal and social conditions faced by Palestinians today, particularly regarding interactions with Israelis, which have been severely limited due to the occupation's structures.
-Lebanon's government pledged to disarm Hezbollah following a ceasefire after the recent conflict with Israel, but progress has been slow, frustrating Israeli and American officials. Despite claims of reduced presence and losses during the war, Hezbollah is reportedly attempting to rebuild its arsenal, raising concerns of a renewed Israeli offensive. Direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys have occurred, facilitated by a US ceasefire monitoring committee. US officials had urged disarmament to finish by the end of 2025; however, that is unlikely and any swift actions could destabilize Lebanon internally, given Hezbollah's dual role as a militant group and a political party.
NEW YORK POST
-GOP Representative Elise Stefanik has abruptly ended her campaign for New York governor and announced she will not seek re-election for Congress. Citing a desire to avoid a challenging primary battle, she expressed that focusing on family during the holidays influenced her decision. Despite support from county committee chairs, she deemed a lengthy primary contest an ineffective use of resources in New York's challenging political landscape, paving the way for Bruce Blakeman's nomination bid.
-Sony has acquired control over the Peanuts characters, including Snoopy and Charlie Brown, through a deal valued at over $450M, raising its stake in Peanuts Holdings to 80%. This acquisition was made from the Canadian children’s entertainment company WildBrain, which previously purchased the 'Peanuts' brand in 2017 and sold a 39% stake to Sony in 2018. The remaining 20% stake will stay with the family of 'Peanuts' creator Charles M. Schulz. Sony's involvement with the 'Peanuts' characters began in 2010 when it became the brand's agent in Japan. The total valuation of Peanuts Holdings now exceeds $1B. Despite this takeover, content featuring 'Peanuts' will continue to be available on Apple TV+ due to a licensing deal that extends until 2030. Peanuts originated in American comic strips in 1947, initially titled "Li'l Folks."

FINANCIAL TIMES
-The US Department of Justice has released a limited set of heavily redacted documents related to Jeffrey Epstein, partially fulfilling a congressional order. This release included images of high-profile individuals, such as Bill Clinton, Donald Trump, and Andrew Mountbatten-Windsor, alongside FBI testimonies. However, the release has also faced criticisms for Congress's failure to release all documents. The disclosures have reopened debates about Epstein's connections with influential figures, generating political controversy. Trump did not comment on the documents during their release.
-The Pretis weapons factory in Sarajevo, historically known for producing artillery shells, has seen dwindling operations since the 1990s. In spring 2024, the American Sitko Acquisition LLC began acquiring shares in Pretis and another factory, Binas, positioning itself as a significant private shareholder alongside the Bosnian government. Led by Will Somerindyke, a former Pentagon contractor and college baseball player, this move signals a new global arms supply chain, focusing on covert, privatized operations for conflicts without direct troop deployments. The ongoing geopolitical tensions have heightened demand for specific munitions like 155mm rounds, perceiving them as essential commodities in contemporary warfare.
-The Delaware Supreme Court reinstated Elon Musk's $56B pay package, ruling that the 2024 cancellation was inappropriate. The court confirmed that while Tesla's board improperly approved Musk's 2018 share grant contingent on operational milestones, complete withdrawal was not a suitable remedy. It noted that Musk deserved compensation for his six years of efforts during which Tesla's market capitalization exceeded $1T. The ruling restored 303M shares to Musk, valued at nearly $150B today, despite a previous lower court's cancellation due to the board's ties to him.
-The US launched large-scale strikes against Isis in Syria in response to an ambush that killed two American soldiers and a civilian interpreter. Central Command stated that over 70 targets were hit using fighter jets, helicopters, and artillery, with support from the Jordanian air force. US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth characterized the action as a “declaration of vengeance.” The strikes followed the deaths of US personnel during a counterterrorism operation and were part of broader military efforts that led to the killing or detaining of 23 terrorist operatives. As these events unfolded, Secretary of State Marco Rubio highlighted the administration's foreign policy achievements, framing Trump as a "peacemaker" and emphasizing the need for compliance in peacemaking efforts. The Trump administration is focusing its security attention on the western hemisphere and drug trafficking, reducing focus on Europe and the Middle East.
-Oil prices increased after President Donald Trump announced a "total blockade" on US-sanctioned tankers to and from Venezuela, heightening tensions with President Nicolas Maduro. Trump suggested war might be possible, noting that the US is prepared to seize more tankers. The US has already captured the stateless tanker Skipper this month and enhanced its naval presence in the Caribbean. Satellite data reveals an increase in US aircraft in the region and the reactivation of the Roosevelt Roads naval base in Puerto Rico.
-The market for premium vintage champagne is experiencing a revival after a downturn. After the Covid pandemic, collectors invested in champagne, causing prices to double. But now, the increased inventories have triggered a significant price decline, with the Champagne-50 index falling over one-third since December 2022. Recently, trading volumes for vintage champagne have doubled, driven by increased interest in high-end brands like Salon and Selosse Millesime, amid renewed collector confidence sparked by US tariff increases on imported wines. A case of Jacques Selosse Millesime 2002 now trades around £10,000.
-Anne Neuberger, a former US national security official, discusses the potential of a "SpyGPT" that could revolutionize intelligence gathering. She mentioned a 2018 incident where the Israeli Mossad stole extensive Iranian nuclear documents, noting that AI could significantly speed up translation and analysis of such information. SpyGPT could analyze vast intelligence databases to reveal patterns, enhancing the usefulness of intelligence. However, Neuberger also warns that advanced technologies have made democracies susceptible to threats such as drone incursions, cyber-attacks, and disinformation campaigns, citing a recent interruption of an AI-driven cyber-attack by the company Anthropic, linked to a Chinese state-sponsored group.
-President Donald Trump’s tariffs are aiding US Christmas tree growers by increasing demand for real trees amid challenges faced by artificial tree retailers. Grower Bill Burrows reports a shift from artificial to real trees due to price hikes and availability issues with fakes. Despite difficult conditions for many American farmers, Burrows' customers prioritize value, finding real trees more affordable this year. Most growers have maintained their prices, as indicated by a survey from the Real Christmas Tree Board, while plastic tree promoters acknowledge difficulties in selling due to consumer cost concerns.
-The EU has not provided a clear growth roadmap in its revised climate policy, hindering Stellantis's ability to increase investments in Europe, said CEO Antonio Filosa. He criticized the lack of urgent measures needed for the automotive sector’s recovery and stated that without growth, further investment is unlikely, which in turn jeopardizes the supply chain critical for jobs and prosperity in Europe. His comments follow the European Commission's decision to eliminate a law mandating zero emissions from carmakers by 2035.
-Neil Shen’s investment group HSG has acquired the Italian luxury shoe brand Golden Goose for approximately €2.5B, signaling a shift in the company's prospects after it previously canceled its plans for an IPO. HSG is purchasing a majority stake from investors, including current owner Permira, while Temasek will take a minority stake. This acquisition nearly doubles Golden Goose's valuation since Permira bought it for under €1.3B in 2020. The brand had previously planned a Milan listing, which was abandoned due to market conditions; had it proceeded, it would have valued the company at €1.9B. Permira’s partner acknowledged that foregoing the IPO was the right decision given the challenging luxury market climate.
-Britons increasingly see their country as "broken," with optimism following the new government's election quickly diminishing. Housing crises drive this sentiment as many struggle with high rents and prices. While the government has ambitious plans to build 1.5M homes, its combative stance against environmental protections could hinder progress. The prevailing narrative suggests a false dichotomy between housing development and nature conservation, misrepresenting public opinion as divided between pro-development and anti-development sentiments.
NEW YORK TIMES
-The Justice Department released over 13,000 files related to Jeffrey Epstein, responding to congressional pressure and a recent law signed by President Trump. The files, which included photographs and investigative documents, were expected to clarify Epstein's activities and relationships with influential figures. However, the initial batch have not shown any new significant information regarding Epstein's conduct or links to powerful individuals. The Justice Department indicated that more documents would be released in the upcoming weeks.
-One Maria Farmer, who previously worked for Jeffrey Epstein, reported about the latter’s interest in "child pornography" to the FBI in 1996, nearly a decade before his predatory behavior was scrutinized. Farmer has long claimed to have contacted federal investigators that summer, but the FBI never publicly acknowledged her report. In the wake of the recent release of Epstein's files, Farmer spoke to The New York Times about a document dated September 3, 1996, which brought her to tears. She expressed her relief at being "vindicated" after 30 years, but also heartbreak over the F.B.I.'s failure to act on her complaint, stating, "They harmed all of these little girls. That part devastates me." She stressed her feeling of shame towards the agency for their inaction.
-Amid the standoff between the United States and Venezuela, both countries' military forces have been jamming satellite navigation signals in the Caribbean, increasing the risk of collisions or accidents for air and sea traffic. Analysis of data shows that US warships, including the USS Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier, have been actively jamming GPS signals to combat drug trafficking linked to the Venezuelan government. In retaliation to this military pressure, Venezuelan forces under President Nicolas Maduro have interfered with GPS signals surrounding critical infrastructure such as military bases, oil refineries, and power plants, as reported by the satellite data firm Spire Global.
-On Friday, the USA launched major airstrikes against Islamic State (IS) in Syria to avenge, as President Trump promised, the deaths of two US Army soldiers and a civilian US interpreter killed in a terrorist attack in the central part of the country last Saturday. The strikes involved fighter jets, attack helicopters and artillery, firing more than 100 munitions at more than 70 suspected targets, including weapons storage areas and other buildings to support operations. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth suggested that the US is not interested in reopening a major new war in the Middle East even as he said that there could be more attacks against IS.
-Over the past year, Health Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has started to alter the childhood vaccination schedule, aiming to align it more closely to Denmark's approach, which uses fewer vaccines. This shift is backed by a related directive from President Trump. Kennedy should be announcing the new vaccination schedule in 2026. An overhaul of the schedule could dodge the evidence-based, committee-led process that has typically guided the USA’s vaccine recommendations, potentially affecting coverage by private insurance and government programs.
-On President Trump’s first day back in office, Democratic Representative Mikie Sherrill criticized his executive orders for failing to address the “affordability crisis.” This marked a significant shift in political dialogue, as affordability has emerged as a central theme, particularly in the wake of Sherrill's recent gubernatorial victory. The term has gained significant traction, with Trump having used it in his 2024 campaign to promise to “make America affordable again.” Both political parties are now focusing on affordability, which summarizes issues related to the costs of housing, child care, groceries, health care, and utilities. Surveys indicate that economic concerns are the top priority for Americans, who increasingly feel financially challenged.
-The Trump administration is escalating its efforts to deport individuals to countries where they have no prior ties, with a noticeable uptick in legal actions. In November, Dept. of Homeland Security attorneys filed nearly 5,000 motions to dismiss asylum claims, a dramatic rise compared to the few hundred filed monthly during the summer. This increase correlates with the federal government's negotiations for new asylum agreements with select countries like Honduras and Uganda, which are approved as part of the “safe third country” accords. These agreements entail that foreign nations are willing to accept a limited number of US asylum seekers, allowing them to apply for asylum within those countries. Therefore, immigration courts are witnessing government lawyers increasingly requesting judges to dismiss asylum cases without hearings, arguing that applicants should seek protection in these designated safe third countries instead.
-Nuno Loureiro, who grew up in Portugal, aspired to be a scientist. Having made significant contributions to physics in his 20s, he achieved tenure by age 40 and led a research lab at MIT. Colleagues noted his engaging teaching style, likening him to an "Einstein without the crazy hair." The 47-year old Loureiro was fatally shot at his home in Brookline, Massachusetts. His death was linked to a prior shooting at Brown University on December 13, where the suspect, Claudio Neves Valente, killed two and injured nine. Initially, authorities did not connect the two incidents, but later confirmed Valente was responsible for both shootings. Valente was found dead in New Hampshire. No motive was disclosed.
-On four occasions, Ukraine has used drones in the past few weeks to hit oil tankers from Russia’s so-called “shadow fleet,” suggesting that Ukraine’s security services agency feels confident about its ability to launch audacious attacks and claim them publicly. One such attack occurred last Thursday night, some 1200 mi away from Ukraine in the Mediterranean Sea using aerial drones. The other three used sea drones in the Black Sea.
-The NYT has interviewed Raja Shehadeh, a Christian-Palestinian 74-year-old writer, lawyer, and human rights activist, who has lived in Ramallah, West Bank since his family fled Jaffa in 1948. He has rigorously documented life under Israeli occupation, earning acclaim for his precise descriptions and emotional depth, including winning Britain’s Orwell Prize for "Palestinian Walks" and being a finalist for the 2023 National Book Award for We Could Have Been Friends, My Father and I." As a co-founder of Al-Haq, Shehadeh maintains an optimistic belief in the possibility of peace in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and emphasizes the need for a fundamental reconsideration of narratives about the region. He stresses the importance of documenting the landscape's past and clarifying the historical context of legal and social conditions faced by Palestinians today, particularly regarding interactions with Israelis, which have been severely limited due to the occupation's structures.
-Lebanon's government pledged to disarm Hezbollah following a ceasefire after the recent conflict with Israel, but progress has been slow, frustrating Israeli and American officials. Despite claims of reduced presence and losses during the war, Hezbollah is reportedly attempting to rebuild its arsenal, raising concerns of a renewed Israeli offensive. Direct talks between Israeli and Lebanese envoys have occurred, facilitated by a US ceasefire monitoring committee. US officials had urged disarmament to finish by the end of 2025; however, that is unlikely and any swift actions could destabilize Lebanon internally, given Hezbollah's dual role as a militant group and a political party.
NEW YORK POST
-GOP Representative Elise Stefanik has abruptly ended her campaign for New York governor and announced she will not seek re-election for Congress. Citing a desire to avoid a challenging primary battle, she expressed that focusing on family during the holidays influenced her decision. Despite support from county committee chairs, she deemed a lengthy primary contest an ineffective use of resources in New York's challenging political landscape, paving the way for Bruce Blakeman's nomination bid.
-Sony has acquired control over the Peanuts characters, including Snoopy and Charlie Brown, through a deal valued at over $450M, raising its stake in Peanuts Holdings to 80%. This acquisition was made from the Canadian children’s entertainment company WildBrain, which previously purchased the 'Peanuts' brand in 2017 and sold a 39% stake to Sony in 2018. The remaining 20% stake will stay with the family of 'Peanuts' creator Charles M. Schulz. Sony's involvement with the 'Peanuts' characters began in 2010 when it became the brand's agent in Japan. The total valuation of Peanuts Holdings now exceeds $1B. Despite this takeover, content featuring 'Peanuts' will continue to be available on Apple TV+ due to a licensing deal that extends until 2030. Peanuts originated in American comic strips in 1947, initially titled "Li'l Folks."

Le Figaro : Nucléaire, renouvelables, « surcapacité »… Ce que révèle le dernier

Nucléaire, renouvelables, « surcapacité »… Ce que révèle le dernier bilan prévisionnel de RTE sur l’électricité en France

Dans son dernier bilan prévisionnel, le gestionnaire du réseau de transport d’électricité (RTE) prévoit deux à trois années de surcapacités de production. De quoi tirer les prix vers le bas et favoriser les exportations. Mais si la situation actuelle se prolongeait, cela dégraderait le modèle économique des producteurs.

« Souvenez-vous, il y a trois ans, nous nous demandions si nous aurions assez d’électricité pour passer l’hiver », rappelle Xavier Piechaczyk, le président du directoire de Réseau de transport d’électricité (RTE). Trente-six mois plus tard, le paysage a changé. Les Européens ont sécurisé leurs approvisionnements en gaz et la production du parc nucléaire d’EDF est remontée en flèche, après que l’épisode de la corrosion sous contrainte l’a fait plonger (en 2022). Le niveau de risque en cas de vague de froid hivernal n’a jamais été aussi faible.

Aujourd’hui, la France produit plus d’électricité qu’elle n’en consomme, ce qui suscite une volée de critiques. Pour les uns, il faut arrêter les renouvelables ; pour les autres, ralentir les ambitions du pays dans le nucléaire. Ces positions sont justifiées par une consommation d’électricité qui ne décolle pas. Mais elles risquent d’empêcher le pays de relever les défis qui l’attendent dans les toutes prochaines années. Dans son nouveau bilan prévisionnel, RTE met en perspective deux trajectoires de consommation. La première à 505 TWh en 2035, et la seconde, dite de « décarbonation rapide », à 580 TWh. Loin des scénarios figurant dans son document de référence « Futurs énergétiques », publié en février 2022, et qui tablait sur une consommation comprise entre 525 et 615 TWh en 2035. Un écart que le président de RTE explique simplement : « En 2022, nous avions retenu trois scénarios : le premier incluait des objectifs de réindustrialisation et de décarbonation assurant le respect des engagements européens, le deuxième prévoyait un retard de trois à cinq ans sur ces objectifs et le troisième, dit “de mondialisation contrariée”, avec une consommation presque atone. Or nous assistons à la réalisation du premier scénario côté production et du troisième côté consommation. Cela crée un décalage. » Dès lors, faut-il arrêter d’installer des capacités de production en attendant que la consommation décolle ? RTE est très loin d’arriver à cette conclusion.

Souveraineté énergétique
« Nous sommes entrés dans un épisode de surcapacité, dans un moment d’abondance, souligne Xavier Piechaczyk. C’est une période transitoire, qui est avérée pour deux à trois ans. Mais cet épisode ne doit pas durer trop longtemps. » La situation actuelle présente néanmoins quelques avantages. Les exportations d’électricité se portent bien : 89 TWh exportés en 2024 (un record), 82 TWh au cours des onze premiers mois de 2025. L’année dernière, l’électricité a rapporté 5 milliards d’euros à la balance commerciale française, quand les achats de gaz et de pétrole lui en ont coûté 66 milliards. L’électricité est aussi un moyen de garantir la souveraineté énergétique de la France : elle est produite localement quand il faut importer les hydrocarbures. Avec tout ce que cela implique en termes de dépendance aux pays producteurs, jadis la Russie, aujourd’hui, les États-Unis.

Ces surcapacités permettent à la France d’afficher les prix de l’électricité les plus bas d’Europe, avec un différentiel de 30 euros du mégawattheure par rapport à l’Allemagne. Autre avantage, pour les consommateurs nationaux cette fois, les prix sont tirés vers le bas : un plus pour le pouvoir d’achat et pour la compétitivité industrielle. « L’abondance a des vertus, insiste Xavier Piechaczyk. En France, il n’y a pas de rivalité entre les secteurs. On peut à la fois réindustrialiser, décarboner et installer des data centers. Certains pays, comme le Royaume-Uni, l’Irlande ou les Pays-Bas par exemple, sont contraints de faire des choix faute de disposer de suffisamment de ressources électriques. » Un état de fait qui commence à avoir des conséquences concrètes dans les choix d’investissement de grands groupes internationaux.

Une industrie de coûts fixes
« Toute la difficulté est d’éviter les surcapacités structurelles qui soulèvent des enjeux techniques et économiques », alerte néanmoins Xavier Piechaczyk. Des surcapacités durables feraient grimper d’environ 7 % le coût du mégawattheure (MWh). En effet, la production d’électricité est une industrie de coûts fixes : pour rentabiliser les installations, il faut une utilisation optimale. La baisse durable des prix de marché, avec un prix spot moyen compris entre 35 et 50 euros du MWh, entraînerait une dégradation du modèle économique des producteurs, avec une perte de revenus de l’ordre de 20 milliards par an. Enfin, il y aurait un effet haussier sur les charges budgétaires liées au soutien public aux renouvelables.


Le vrai défi est donc de disposer des moyens de production adéquats à la fois pour éviter une catastrophe économique et pour accompagner la croissance attendue de la demande. Car RTE anticipe toujours une hausse de cette dernière. « Nos prévisions se basent aujourd’hui sur des projets concrets et non plus uniquement sur des prospectives », explique Thomas Veyrenc, directeur général stratégie chez RTE. Depuis 2022, le gestionnaire du réseau a engrangé des demandes de raccordement pour l’électrification de sites existants (par exemple, le verrier Verallia), de nouvelles usines (Gravithy, qui produit de l’acier décarboné, Holosolis, pour concevoir ses panneaux solaires…) et des data centers correspondant à 180 TWh de consommation supplémentaires.

Prudent, RTE estime qu’une partie seulement des demandes aboutiront et que les entités ne consommeront pas 100 % des capacités demandées. Malgré ces bémols, la demande devrait (enfin) augmenter d’ici à 2030. « Le bilan de RTE confirme la nécessité d’accélérer sur l’électrification des usages pour atteindre nos objectifs : transition écologique, des logements plus résilients, décarbonation de l’industrie et réindustrialisation, indépendance énergétique », a réagi Bercy, ajoutant que le premier ministre « souhaitait une stratégie d’électrification complémentaire à la programmation pluriannuelle de l’énergie (PPE) ». Alors que « des décisions concernant la PPE seront prises d’ici Noël ».

Le Monde : Pourra-t-on encore skier en France en 2050 ? Les projections de neige

Pourra-t-on encore skier en France en 2050 ? Les projections de neige dans vos stations favorites

Des modélisations réalisées par des chercheurs prédisent un fort impact du réchauffement climatique sur l’enneigement des massifs français. Les stations de sports d’hiver verront les saisons de ski se raccourcir fortement dès 2050.

A la fin du XXe siècle, il était encore possible de skier 151 jours par an dans une station comme Le Tourmalet (Hautes-Pyrénées) lors des bonnes années. D’ici à 2050, le nombre de jours skiables dans une telle station – nichée à 1 900 mètres d’altitude, dans le massif de la Haute-Bigorre – devrait dégringoler à 116. Et finirait sa chute à 86 jours à la fin du siècle.

Cette projection spectaculaire est tirée d’un travail de modélisation mené par des chercheurs du laboratoire écosytèmes et société en montagne de l’Institut national de recherche pour l’agriculture, l’alimentation et l’environnement (Inrae) en partenariat avec Météo-France. Ces données, que Le Monde a pu consulter, illustrent, au-delà de l’exemple pyrénéen du Tourmalet, l’impact du réchauffement climatique sur les montagnes françaises, avec une diminution généralisée du nombre de jours skiables, et des saisons qui commencent plus tard et finissent plus tôt.

Toutes les stations touchées par le réchauffement
Pour réaliser ces projections, les chercheurs se sont basés sur les prévisions de réchauffement climatique de la France qui font actuellement consensus : la trajectoire de réchauffement de référence pour l’adaptation au changement climatique (Tracc) prévoit un réchauffement de 2 °C par rapport à l’ère préindustrielle à l’horizon 2030, de 2,7 °C en 2050 et de 4 °C à la fin du XXIe siècle. Pour chacun de ces jalons, ils ont comparé le niveau prévisionnel d’enneigement à la période de référence 1976-2005 (marquée par un réchauffement de 0,6 °C).


Si l’ensemble des stations françaises vont perdre de la couverture neigeuse, « les conséquences du changement climatique ne se feront pas sentir avec la même intensité et à la même vitesse dans tous les massifs », commente Hugues François, chercheur en aménagement, spécialiste du développement touristique de la montagne à l’Inrae. La localisation (nord ou sud) et l’altitude (haute ou basse) vont, en effet, largement influencer le rythme du recul de la neige :

Parmi les stations des plus hautes montagnes, les Alpes du Nord seront les moins touchées dans une France à + 2,7 °C. Les Alpes du Sud, dont la moyenne d’altitude des domaines skiables est pourtant plus élevée, accuseront une perte plus importante, alors que dans les Pyrénées, l’activité des stations devrait être amputée de plus du tiers du nombre médian de jours skiables par rapport à celui constaté entre 1976 et 2005.
  • En moyenne montagne, la plus importante baisse devrait concerner le Massif central (avec une amputation de plus du tiers du nombre médian de jours skiable constatés entre 1976 et 2005), devant les Vosges et le Jura.
  • Enfin, les trois stations corses accusent la plus importante perte, de près de la moitié (moins 55 jours en moyenne) par rapport à la période de référence.
Si les données des chercheurs de l’Inrae et de Météo-France ne permettent pas de prédire l’enneigement futur de chaque station de sports d’hiver, elles en offrent une très bonne approximation : elles permettent, en effet, d’explorer, pour chaque massif et sous-massif français, les projections d’enneigement des domaines skiables situés à différentes plages d’altitude.

La production artificielle de neige ne suffira pas
Ces projections prennent en compte la production artificielle de neige. Initialement utilisée pour améliorer les conditions d’exploitation des domaines face à l’aléa de l’enneigement, elle est aujourd’hui vitale pour toutes les stations. Sans cette pratique, le nombre de jours skiables de la quasi-totalité des domaines se réduit comme peau de chagrin, et ce dès les 2 °C d’augmentation de température prévus pour 2030.

« La production [artificielle] de neige n’a pas la même capacité à amortir les conséquences du changement climatique en fonction des massifs », explique Hugues François. Plus les hausses de températures sont marquées, plus son efficacité diminue : les créneaux quotidiens de production sont moins nombreux, alors que les précipitations plus fréquentes sous forme de pluie que de neige entraînent un besoin croissant. Contrecarrer le déficit d’enneigement naturel devient peu à peu impossible.

Avec une augmentation des températures de 4 °C, « quels que soient les massifs, la situation est critique, et ce, quelles que soient les capacités de production de neige », insiste Hugues François. Augmenter la production de neige d’un domaine skiable à ce niveau de réchauffement ne sera possible que sur les parties les plus hautes des domaines, au détriment des zones les plus basses, qui resteront déneigées. Logiquement, les stations nichées dans les massifs les plus élevés compenseront l’évolution du climat en exploitant les plus hautes altitudes.

Un risque élevé d’années sans neige
Le dérèglement climatique devrait aussi accentuer l’imprévisibilité de l’enneigement, en augmentant la récurrence des très mauvaises années d’enneigement. Or, la variabilité de la ressource en neige plombe la viabilité économique des stations, en menaçant la rentabilité des lourds investissements dans les remontées mécaniques.

Les chercheurs mesurent cette variabilité avec un indice de risque. Un risque mesuré à 50 % indique que les pires années observées en moyenne tous les cinq ans sur la période de référence 1976-2005 se reproduiront une année sur deux.

« Ça change tout pour un exploitant, avertit Samuel Morin, chercheur à Météo-France et au Centre national de la recherche scientifique (CNRS), à l’initiative de la création de cet indicateur avec Hugues Francois. Là où il pouvait composer avec un enneigement faible rencontré une année sur cinq en capitalisant un peu, en épargnant, en faisant appel à des mécanismes de solidarité ou d’assurance, la logique économique est complètement bouleversée si cet aléa se reproduit tous les deux ans. »


A nouveau, l’altitude et la localisation des massifs influeront sur ce risque de faible enneigement : l’impact pour les massifs les plus bas et les plus méridionaux sera important dès les premiers paliers de réchauffement.

Pour survivre, les stations devront se diversifier
Dans les stations de sports d’hiver, les hébergeurs réalisent en moyenne 75 % de leur chiffre d’affaires l’hiver. Ce chiffre monte à 85 % pour les magasins de sport et 95 % pour les remontées. L’impact économique local du déficit structurel d’enneigement à venir dépendra donc fortement du degré de dépendance de l’écosystème montagnard aux remontées mécaniques.

Dans un premier élan de résistance, un dispositif de solidarité « entre grandes stations vis-à-vis des plus petites, davantage touchées », a été créé en 2001 à l’initiative des Domaines skiables de France (DSF). Mais pour Laurent Reynaud, délégué général de cette association d’opérateurs de remontées mécaniques, l’adaptation au réchauffement climatique doit avant tout passer par une diversification des activités et par l’adaptation du ski « partout où ça a du sens », en fonction des projections fines d’enneigement dans les décennies à venir.

« Il faut vraiment imaginer des trajectoires qui vont être de plus en plus singulières en fonction de chaque station. D’un côté, des sites vont probablement arrêter le ski à brève échéance – c’est déjà le cas pour des microsites. Et pour beaucoup de stations moyennes et grandes, le ski sera toujours là, mais avec une part d’activité de diversification qu’on espère agrandie », conclut Laurent Reynaud.

WWD : Will Money Talk? Elliott Takes $1 Billion Stake in Lululemon, Pushes for R

Will Money Talk? Elliott Takes $1 Billion Stake in Lululemon, Pushes for Ralph Lauren Exec to Be Next CEO
Jane Nielsen is the activist investor's pick for the athletic brand's next top executive.

Lululemon Athletica founder Chip Wilson has been agitating for change, and the outspoken critic now has activist investor Elliott Investment Management weighing in on a potential chief executive officer candidate.

The activist is in a position to make moves, and with a stake reportedly valued at more than $1 billion, Elliott’s input might have more sway with the Lululemon board than that of Wilson. And with Lululemon CEO Calvin McDonald planning to step down on Jan. 31, the timing seems perfect for the activist to exert some pressure for the slumping yoga-inspired athletic brand.

The Wall Street Journal first reported that Elliott has been working with Jane Nielsen as a potential CEO candidate. Nielsen is a seasoned executive with a good reputation among the Wall Street crowd. A former chief financial officer at Tapestry Inc., she left in 2016 to join Ralph Lauren Corp. as its CFO and chief operating officer. Nielsen left the company this past April. That was about the time when Elliott and Nielsen are said to have started talking about Lululemon.

Lululemon said last week when announcing McDonald’s departure that it was working with a “leading executive search firm” to find its next CEO. Executives on Thursday did not respond to a request for comment by press time regarding either the activist’s stake or Nielsen as Elliott’s potential CEO candidate.

“We would applaud if the board ultimately chooses Jane as we have deep respect for her leadership and her experience in turning Tapestry and Ralph Lauren around,” BNP Paribas Research analyst Laurent Vasilescu said Thursday. “In our October upgrade, we highlighted the potential for activism and noted that there are four individuals that were consistently discussed with investors. While we didn’t mention any names in the note, Jane Nielsen was at the top of that list now that she has left Ralph Lauren and has voiced her desire to become the next Lululemon CEO.”

Vasilescu cited three approaches Nielsen could take in turning around Lululemon’s fortunes after its stock slide over the last two years.

Citing the mass layoffs at the brand this past summer — the company in June said it was cutting 150 corporate jobs — as well as talent exiting for competitor Arc’teryx, the BNP analyst said Nielsen could bring up morale at the brand — nothing that when at Ralph Lauren, she and CEO Patrice Louvet were able to retain the team during that brand’s turnaround pre-COVID.

Perhaps more importantly was Nielsen’s ability to bring “operational rigor” to the Ralph Lauren organization. “We used to refer to her in our research as ‘The Sheriff’ during the early days of the Ralph Lauren turnaround. She implemented operational disciplines on all fronts from the stock keeping unit rationalization with a focus on the core [to] rightsizing the store base, supply chain logistics as well as corporate overhead,” he said.

The analyst pointed out that Lululemon is currently expanding store square footage — the brand recently launched a new store concept in SoHo — despite the fact that comps are lacking. “We believe Jane’s operational discipline could unlock expense savings to bring Lululemon’s operating margins back to best-in-class levels,” Vasilescu said.

And finally, the analyst noted a series of misses at the athletic brand — from self care to its Mirror platform and secondhand apparel — plus a foray into footwear were all discontinued. He noted that if Lululemon returns to focus on its great core offering, the “core customer may reengage” with the brand again, with Nielsen as an “excellent fit for a potential turnaround.”

Jefferies analyst Randal Konik noted that with McDonald on the way out, “we believe a refreshed board, a thoughtful CEO with real leadership, and a return to Lululemon’s roots are critical.”

At the top of what Lululemon needs is a refreshment in leadership, the Jefferies analyst said. That warrants a management team with deep retail and brand-building experience. He said the priority should be a CEO with a “proven track record in revitalizing premium apparel brands, someone who understands both operational discipline and authentic brand storytelling.”

Other priorities include fixing the Americas first as the region represents 75 percent of sales, as well as rationalization of the store footprint and format. Konik wants to see an aggressive management of inventory levels and forecasting. “Elevated inventories and aggressive newness have led to excessive markdowns and cluttered stores,” the analyst noted.

In Lululemon’s most recent third-quarter results, it posted a 13 percent decline in net income to $306 million on a 7 percent rise in net revenues to $2.6 billion. Comparable sales in the Americas fell 5 percent, although comps rose 18 percent in its international business.

Investors reacted favorably to the news of Elliott’s input, sending shares of Lululemon up nearly 3.5 percent, or up $7.24, to close at $215.11 in Thursday’s trading session.

WWD : What Comes After the Great Creative Reset of 2025?

What Comes After the Great Creative Reset of 2025?
Headhunters expect fewer top creative searches at marquee brands and suggest that designers, idled by the shuffle, might migrate to the high street, technology companies — or China's burgeoning fashion landscape.

Fashion‘s revolving door — which has been spinning at top speed — should slow down considerably in 2026, according to executive search experts.

“It is expected that all recent nominations will be highly successful, limiting the great game of musical chairs for such top houses,” Floriane de Saint Pierre, founder of her namesake executive search and consulting firm in Paris, said in an interview.

She was referring to the fact that Dior, Chanel, Gucci, Balenciaga, Celine, Loewe, Givenchy, Maison Margiela, Fendi, Tom Ford, Jil Sander, Bottega Veneta, Mugler, Jean Paul Gaultier, Dries Van Noten and Lanvin were among European brands that made a designer switcheroo over the past year or so, marking a great generational change in luxury.

Some of those designers have moved to new roles, while others are looking for new jobs — or taking a break — and the changes are set to transform the industry for the first time in more than a decade. Jonathan Anderson logged 11 years at Loewe before moving over to Dior; Olivier Rousteing 14 years before recently stepping down, and Véronique Nichanian 37 years as men’s artistic director of Hermès. Next year, Grace Wales Bonner will succeed her.

Although de Saint Pierre is confident that the merry-go-round has stopped, Mary Gallagher, senior consultant at Find executive consulting, didn’t rule out some additional movement.

“Despite the domino effect of this past year, there are still some brands with open creative director chairs, some that might be rethinking their recent choices, contracts that might not be renewed by one or the other side, and management/investors wanting to reposition or to sell brands,” she said without naming specific brands. “In addition, there are probably going to be a few more surprising blindsides in 2026.”

One came early when Prada Group parted ways with Versace‘s newly appointed creative director Dario Vitale. The separation was announced only two days after Prada completed its acquisition of the brand on Dec. 2. Brioni followed up a few days later, saying it was parting ways with its design director Norbert Stumpfl after seven years.

Vitale’s exit could set up at least one major designer switch in 2026. Sources said the lead candidate to take over the creative reins at the Italian fashion house is Pieter Mulier, creative director of Maison Azzedine Alaïa. That would create a big gap, given Mulier’s success in growing the French brand, which is owned by Compagnie Financière Richemont.

Moira Benigson, founder and chair of The MBS Group, said that although 2026 should be “fairly settled,” the market is so volatile right now “there could be further changes.”

Besides Versace and now Brioni, the widely known empty seats include Bally, following designer Simone Bellotti’s move to the helm of Jil Sander.

Although the dust is now settling around top creative roles at big European houses, there has been a “knock-on effect across many departments in each brand, including design, marketing and communications,” according to Gallagher.

“Merchandising is a perennial recruitment, which doesn’t typically depend on a changing creative director. The most successful merchandisers are those who esteem creativity, speak a designer’s language, and can build the right structure so that the designer’s artistic vision will shine. If that relationship doesn’t gel, it probably won’t last very long,” she added.

Karen Harvey, chief executive officer at Karen Harvey Consulting, said merchant leaders — who can carry the title chief merchant or chief product officer — have been the most sought-after professionals over the past year.

De Saint Pierre agreed the next wave of recruitment “will likely focus on reinforcing the creative directors’ teams, particularly across product and image. Strengthening these areas will be essential to properly support the new creative visions and ensure cohesive execution.”

Yet she argued that the need for creative talent today “is much broader in terms of sectors and geographies,” which could open up a host of new searches.

“Any influential brands in any geography and sector — fashion, beauty, jewelry, hospitality, cars, food and beverage, etc. — need great creative talent, on products, visual expression and experiences,” de Saint Pierre said.

To be sure, there is some famous talent on the market.

Among the fallout of the colossal game of musical chairs that played out in fashion in 2025 is a growing list of idled creative directors.

John Galliano, Hedi Slimane, Olivier Rousteing, Dario Vitale, Francesco Risso, Kim Jones, Matthew M. Williams, Sabato De Sarno, Casey Cadwallader, Roland Mouret and Luke and Lucie Meier headline a growing list of designers currently taking a break, dabbling in one-off design projects, plotting their next move — or perhaps rethinking how they might reintegrate into a fast-changing, sometimes unforgiving fashion system. Other big names on the market include the likes of Riccardo Tisci and Kris Van Assche.

According to Emma Davidson, managing director of luxury fashion recruitment firm Denza, “there are fewer big names going around for another spin in the machine.”

“It’s natural that a time comes when someone has years of expertise and a stunning creative eye, but they are no longer able to connect with what is happening in the current market. And I think brands are savvy enough,” she said. “I love seeing new names in houses now. I just hope brands give the new names time for designers to find their way, really support the creative team.

“I don’t know where the most recruitment action is going to be, but the key recruitment request is for a creative who can bring a unique identity and refocus brand DNA,” Davidson added.

De Saint Pierre cited pockets of action in the U.S., where Calvin Klein recruited Italian designer Veronica Leoni; in Japan, where fast-fashion giant Uniqlo is stockpiling blue-chip creative talent, last year tapping former Givenchy and Chloe designer Clare Waight-Keller for a new Uniqlo C range, and in China, where Kim Jones and Kris Van Assche recently unveiled fashion project with Bosideng and Anta, respectively.

De Saint Pierre said “very solid career profiles combining vision and talent in tune with today’s society are always in demand, whether the profile is known or unknown. Some prefer to work as creative consultants, allowing them to collaborate simultaneously with multiple brands across a variety of fields.”

She noted that those who prefer to stay in fashion might consider a second-in-command role.

For example, former Lanvin creative director Bruno Sialelli is now head of design, ready-to-wear, at Phoebe Philo in London.

Find’s Gallagher said in an interview that creative directors currently “on pause” are for the most part “excited about what the future will hold and are not hung up on titles.”

“Creativity is their natural element so with or without a maison, they design things, be it consultations, collaborations, working in other industries, personal projects, or just taking time to regroup,” she said.

She added that working for a high street retailer can also be an attractive option. “There’s no longer a stigma or snobbism about going down-market when the project is exciting to a creative director who wants to build something.”

Besides Waight-Keller, other examples of runway designers pivoting to the high street are Zac Posen, now at Gap; Jonathan Saunders, recently named chief creative officer at & Other Stories, and Aaron Esh, taking on a similar role at AllSaints.

According to Benigson, “the high street is catching up, and has caught luxury napping, living in the past, and not keeping up with where customers are going.”

She pointed to “overinflated prices for goods that can be as nicely made and on trend on the high street” at places like Gap, Marks & Spencer, Uniqlo, Zara and H&M.

There are other frontiers that idled designers can consider, among them “technology specialists with AI, chief customer officer roles, and people who are forward-thinking looking at customer journeys,” Benigson said.

The most recent new recruits in luxury — Atlein’s Antonin Tron for Balmain; Meryll Rogge for Marni; Maria-Grazi Chiuri for Fendi, and Wales Bonner for Hermès — suggest there is demand for both famous and lesser-known names.

Denza’s Davidson came out on the side of younger, lesser-known names.

“I have adored Meryll Rogge’s work since her graduation. It does not surprise me at all that she has arrived at Marni,” she said. Davidson also applauded the earlier appointments of Miguel Castro Freitas and Duran Lantink at Mugler and Jean Paul Gaultier, respectively.

They don’t need to connect with the new generation of fashion consumers. They are already tapped in simply because of their age,” she said. “There has been a huge shift in fashion, and I think consumers are now wanting to express their individuality. And the brands that are flopping are the ones that are too safe. Even brands like Zara are striking out with unique branding.…I am so happy there are new names getting key positions in various companies. I have been so bored with the shows the last few years.”

Harvey noted with second-in-command designers comes “lower expectations, a little more time for them to get their feet on the ground with a brand, and naturally, due to where they are in their own stage of development, they are in touch with many of the important and changing dynamics with consumers.”

That said, she stressed that “product has never been more important, and we need that inherent design acumen that comes from creative directors raised in a generation where they had to have that important, more traditional training.”

According to Gallagher, “it’s not just about the designer’s provenance or even about a high profile, because the company may have new strategies and leadership who are steering the brand to a different place. Depending on where the brand wants to go, a marquee designer might be a ‘get’ for prestige, or a lesser known name might be touted as a ‘bold discovery.'”

Benigson also noted that some designers “seem to be put in for ‘show,'” mentioning the 2023 hiring of Pharrell Williams as men’s creative director at Louis Vuitton, and more recently Jaden Smith as men’s creative director at Christian Louboutin.

De Saint Pierre said fashion houses with revenues below 500 million euros probably “cannot afford a marquee name on an exclusive basis.”

“On the other hand, independent designers or number twos offer talent, expectations aligned with the size and the organization of the brand and a fresh name,” she opined.

There are other advantages to taking a risk on a number-two designer. Negotiations with marquee creative directors can often be complicated in terms of high salary and benefits demands, control rights, willingness to keep other consultancies or one’s own brand, not being open to relocate or not being interested in performance and data, de Saint Pierre said.

Gallagher added: “The most off-putting conditions are if there is no connection and understanding between the creative director and the CEO. Without a collaborative effort and a shared direction, it won’t be a long-term success.

“I think truly modern creative directors have rejected the ivory tower,” she explained. “Beyond experimenting with new ideas in every collection, they also want to be close to the business and image, and to understand the global customer, so the new breed welcomes input from cross-functions. The studio versus commercial is no longer church and state. Embracing merchandising’s expertise, while allowing for imagination, invention and innovation at the top tier, affords a designer real power to create a balanced collection the customer will desire.”

Harvey said it’s “not a one- or two-person show anymore to lead these brands. It’s a four-legged stool at best.”

In her estimation, “there is too much change, too much required in terms of always engaging with consumers across multiple platforms, and with the return of retail we must create end-to-end experience, and this is a lot.”

In addition, “as retail, hospitality, fashion and luxury finally converge, a creative director who’s going to be successful will need to understand that collaboration is not something we just do with outside brands, partners or influencers. It must happen inside brands.”

TechCrunch : Rocket Lab wins another defense-related space contract

Rocket Lab wins another defense-related space contract

Rocket Lab has won an $816 million contract — its largest to date — with the U.S. Space Development Agency as the company continues to diversify beyond its “rocket company” label.

The company said Friday that its subsidiary, Rocket Lab USA, was awarded a prime contract by the Space Development Agency (SDA) to design and manufacture 18 satellites. The satellites will be equipped with advanced missile warning, tracking, and defense sensors for the agency’s Tracking Layer Tranche 3 program.

This contract is separate from an existing $515 million award to deliver satellites for the SDA’s Transport Layer-Beta Tranche 2 program. That program aims to provide a satellite communications network in low Earth orbit that sends encrypted, low-latency data to the military.

Together, Rocket Lab has SDA contracts valued at more than $1.3 billion.

Rocket Lab has expanded into defense and has more recently said it would bid for multibillion-dollar Department of Defense initiatives like Golden Dome.

--> I understanf that Musk want to IPO SpaceX quickly, competition is growing and SpaceX advance is not so obviousanymore

FT : Inside the secret supply chain fuelling America’s wars

Inside the secret supply chain fuelling America’s wars
And what Will Somerindyke’s company, Regulus Global, means for the future of conflict

The Pretis weapons factory sits in a narrow valley on the northern edge of Sarajevo, pressed against the steep, forested slopes that rise behind the Bosnian capital. Inside, cold war-era machines hammer at glowing steel heated to more than 1,000C.

Factories such as Pretis once produced hundreds of thousands of artillery shells each year for a European land war that never arrived. After the 1990s, many of the Bosnian production lines fell silent. Skilled explosives workers retired, and state-owned plants only survived by exporting modest quantities of ammunition to faraway conflicts.

Then, in the spring of 2024, a newly formed American company began buying up shares in Pretis and in another Bosnian arms factory, Binas. The company — Sitko Acquisition LLC — had no website, no public staff and no footprint beyond a US post-office box. Through a series of discreet trades on the Sarajevo stock exchange, Sitko became the largest private shareholder in both factories, second only to the Bosnian government.

The purchases attracted little attention. But the few who noticed wondered who was behind them and why an unknown American firm was taking positions in one of the Balkans’ most sensitive industries.

The trail, buried in layers of corporate filings, led back to Virginia Beach, a US coastal city better known for its boardwalk hotels than for its role in the global arms trade. The Bosnian acquisitions were part of a new global weapons supply chain being assembled by a 47-year-old former college baseball hopeful, ex-Merrill Lynch stock broker and Pentagon contractor called Will Somerindyke.

Over the past decade, Washington has built a new architecture for projecting power. Rather than deploy its troops, the US has relied on covert and often privatised supply chains and contractors to equip proxy forces and partners from Syria to Yemen and Ukraine. That means battles are partly fought far from the front by a new breed of war entrepreneur who moves the weapons rather than fires them.

Shaped by pre-2008-crisis, boiler-room finance and experienced in covert Pentagon logistics operations, Somerindyke had already turned the small company he founded with his parents into a conduit for supplying ammunition to conflicts where Washington preferred distance.

Now in Bosnia, he had spotted an opportunity to make a leveraged, all-in bet on the modern shape of war. With Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, 155-millimetre rounds — heavy, simple, devastating — had suddenly become, in Somerindyke’s words, “the hottest commodity on the planet”.

In the summer of 1999, Somerindyke stood on the sidelines at the stadium of the Norfolk Tides, a Virginia minor-league baseball team, watching the pitchers work under the floodlights. He was 21 then, broad-shouldered and 6ft 2in. His face had the reassuring geometry of the American ballplayer: square jaw, clean lines, sturdy. Under the brim of his cap, his blue eyes followed each pitch, until it snapped into the catcher’s glove. He observed the player’s movements intensely, trying to pick up anything that might save his own wavering career.

Somerindyke had grown up on a naval base in Virginia Beach, dreaming of becoming a pro. Plenty of kids in his area fantasised about the majors, but as the son of a Navy chief, he was more disciplined than most. He practised for hours, beneath the roar of US Air Force jets flying sorties overhead. He obsessed over a single pitch: “the slider”, a ball that deceives a batter by drifting towards the plate, then drops sharply.

After high school, Somerindyke enrolled at Christopher Newport University, a small public college in Virginia, and earned a place on its baseball team. Professional scouts would occasionally come to watch him. But his throwing speed was unremarkable and his record middling. By his senior year, Somerindyke knew his chances were fading. The internship with the Tides, he realised, might be his last shot at going pro.

During the day, he replaced burnt-out bulbs in the scoreboard or crawled under the bleachers to make repairs. On nights like this, he lingered at the edge of the field, studying. Somerindyke’s pitching wasn’t fast enough, but he was convinced of his potential. Eventually, he worked up the courage to approach the Tides’ coach, Rick Waits, a former Major League pitcher, and ask for advice. “Coach Waits is working up a fall workout programme for me,” the young intern told a local reporter. “And I fully plan to follow it.”

But the scouts never came back. The following summer Somerindyke found himself on the 11th floor of the Dominion Tower in Norfolk, sitting in the offices of Merrill Lynch. Fresh out of college and his baseball dream over, he needed a job. He had an interview at the Wall Street brokerage whose hard-selling financial advisers were known as “the thundering herd”.

The Merrill executive asked him: “What are you going to do if you don’t get this job?”

“Well,” Somerindyke replied, “Smith Barney is right across the hall. I’m just going to go work for them and take every Merrill account I can possibly take.”

The executive looked him over. “You’re starting tomorrow.”

It was the year 2000, the height of the dotcom bubble. New brokers were expected to make hundreds of cold calls a day. Work started at 7am and often ended at midnight. The attrition rate was so high that nobody bothered to learn a recruit’s name until they’d lasted at least six months.

Somerindyke thrived. Making 300 calls a day meant learning to be funny when needed, charming when possible and relentless always. The goal wasn’t to get a “yes” so much as avoid a “no.”

But the adrenaline of finance couldn’t fill the void baseball had left. One day in 2004, over the din of ringing phones, Somerindyke turned to a colleague and asked: “Do you really think we can pull this off?”

He had discovered that a struggling Major League Baseball franchise in Montreal was looking for a new home. His part of Virginia — one of the largest population centres in the country without a professional team — seemed like a contender.

Convincing the league to move the franchise to Virginia Beach was an audacious goal for a 26-year-old with a few years’ experience in finance. Married by then, with a baby on the way, Somerindyke threw himself into the effort. He said he worked 100-hour weeks, slept four hours a night, sent emails at 2am and fuelled himself with Coca-Cola. He lobbied the mayor’s office, took out billboards, even painted city manhole covers to look like baseballs in an attempt to build local support.

One day, he cold-called Peter Angelos, the billionaire owner of the Baltimore Orioles. Somehow, he persuaded the tycoon’s secretary to put him through — and pitched him his idea. Angelos, Somerindyke told me, was receptive. But Major League Baseball was not. Not long afterwards, the franchise was awarded to Washington DC. Somerindyke’s baseball dream had died a second time.

By then, his professional life was also beginning to crack. After a failed attempt to juggle his brokerage job with a start-up selling kiosk advertising, state and industry regulators accused him of misleading an investor and violating securities rules. Somerindyke had taken $50,000 from a local dentist he had met playing amateur baseball to fund his start-up. When the business ran into trouble, Somerindyke was reduced to selling off the kiosks on Craigslist. The dentist lost his entire investment. 

Somerindyke denied the allegations, but a Virginia securities regulator later concluded that his conduct had amounted to “fraud against an investor”. The Financial Industry Regulatory Authority also fined him and suspended his licence.

Somerindyke had spent his twenties chasing one dream after another, each collapsing faster than the last. Now in his early thirties, out of finance and running out of prospects, he needed a new dream. And thousands of miles away, in the Middle East, events were beginning to unfold that would transform his life.

By late 2012, Syria had collapsed into a civil war in which President Bashar al-Assad had used chemical weapons on civilians. The brutality fuelled calls for action, but the Obama administration, drained by Iraq and Afghanistan, had little appetite for another direct intervention.

The US instead turned to covert action. The CIA launched a secret programme, Timber Sycamore, run out of Jordan to train and arm rebels with the goal of weakening or toppling Assad. In parallel, US Special Operations Command began its own covert effort to move large quantities of weapons into the country, according to numerous press reports and court documents.

But these fighters relied on Soviet-era rifles, rocket-propelled grenades (RPGs) and artillery the US didn’t produce. Supplying them meant finding intermediaries who could quietly buy up eastern European stockpiles and ship them into Syria without drawing attention.

Around the same time, Somerindyke was waiting in line in a municipal building in Virginia Beach to file a $35 new business licence that, in time, would put him at the heart of that system.

He’d spent the previous few years helping small police- and military-equipment firms market their goods overseas; a freelancer learning the basics of an esoteric trade. Now he wanted his own company. He mulled the name for days. Something solid, he thought. Something that sounded strong. When he slid the form across the counter, the company name read: Regulus Global.

He signed a lease on a 20,000 sq ft warehouse for $7,000 a month and began cold-calling small defence suppliers. His pitch was simple: he would sell whatever surplus inventory they couldn’t. He brought his parents out of retirement. His mother was the administrator; his father handled sales. “They probably thought I was batshit crazy,” he told me.

Regulus’s early deals were less than minor. Boxes of second-hand ballistic glasses, bought cheap and resold. Then crates of gun holsters, the smell of leather lingering in the high, echoing warehouse. On weekends, they drove to regional gun shows to sell a few hundred dollars’ worth of stock at a time. Sometimes, his father resorted to selling items on eBay.

In winter, the trio huddled around portable heaters that repeatedly blew the breakers. In summer, Somerindyke worked in boxer shorts and flip-flops. By the end of the first year, Regulus had crossed $1mn in revenue.

To go further, Somerindyke needed to meet the men who dominate the global trade. Arms expos in London, Paris and the Gulf were filled with them: defence-ministry officials in pressed fatigues, consultants in dark suits, standing beside missile mock-ups and glass cases displaying optics and sniper rifles. Somerindyke didn’t know them. But years of Merrill Lynch cold-calling had taught him that strangers were only strangers for the first 30 seconds of a conversation.

He began flying to the global conference centres and hotel suites where arms dealers negotiated under fluorescent lights. He treated every handshake as a lead. At night, he spread catalogues and business cards across his hotel desk, cross-referencing and annotating them. On a whiteboard, he mapped which factories made which weapons, which governments bought from which suppliers. “This business is old school,” he said. “People want to look you in the eye. If you’re in someone’s office, you can see what matters to them — photos of their kids, their favourite team.”

When he wasn’t flying, he was teaching himself the bureaucracy of the trade. He read the International Traffic in Arms Regulations, the dense legal code governing US exports, like a religious text. He learnt end-user certificates, state department licensing portals, transit rules, customs timing. He studied it all with the same intensity he once brought to the Norfolk Tides sidelines.

Regulus’s contracts slowly grew: night-vision goggles, printers, tactical uniforms. Each deal pushed Somerindyke closer to the core of the market: ballistics. He learnt which depots in eastern Europe still held cold-war stockpiles and which intermediaries were trustworthy. “The amount of stuff made during the cold war is beyond comprehension,” Somerindyke said. “You could go into the hills of Bulgaria and find storage facility after storage facility.”

The US military was about to need everything Somerindyke was learning to source. In 2014, the call came from the Pentagon. US Special Operations Command (Socom) needed contractors who could quickly locate and move Soviet-calibre weapons for rebels fighting in Syria. Larger firms were slow. Somerindyke’s pitch was speed: Regulus could deliver in less than 50 days, he told them, when others required six months.

Weeks later, he climbed aboard an Ilyushin Il-76, a Soviet-built cargo jet roaring on an airstrip in eastern Europe. Through the open ramp he watched chain-smoking loadmasters manoeuvre crates of weapons into place. “In any operation I’ve ever had,” he told me, “I’ve always been on the first flight. I want to see the entire operation myself.”

The steel beneath him vibrated as eastern Europe dropped away. Somewhere below, obscured by clouds, was the war the US wasn’t supposed to be fighting. By the time the aircraft touched down, Regulus had crossed an invisible line. Somerindyke was no longer a small-town broker selling holsters with his father at gun shows. He had become a part of the machinery of modern American war.

On June 6 2015, Francis Norwillo, a 41-year-old American military contractor with a beard and a baseball cap, stood on a shooting range in the Bulgarian mountains holding an RPG launcher. Next to him stood several other contractors, ex-soldiers and Navy veterans, sent to eastern Europe under a Socom programme to “train and equip” anti-Assad fighters.

“The location and activity are of a sensitive nature,” warned a Socom letter later released in US court filings, describing the Bulgaria contract. “Work on this effort may reach the Top Secret level.”

The plan was for the men to familiarise themselves with Soviet-made anti-tank weapons before flying to Muwaffaq Salti, a Jordanian Air Force base, where they would train Syrian rebels to use the same systems. They were not working directly for the US military. Socom had outsourced the training to a small company called Purple Shovel, which hired Norwillo. Purple Shovel, in turn, subcontracted the job of sourcing weapons to Regulus Global.

The arrangement hadn’t been smooth sailing. A few weeks earlier, it became clear that several simulators needed for the training were unavailable in Bulgaria. Somerindyke had proposed a workaround. He arranged for the contractors to travel to Belarus, a Russian ally, to practise on the required systems. Belarus was usually off limits for Americans. “I had to pull a ninja move to get all this training co-ordinated,” Somerindyke wrote in an email to executives at the subcontracting firms in late May. “IT IS VERY VERY IMPORTANT that the 3 guys do not mention to anyone Tuesday through Friday in Bulgaria that they were in Belarus . . . No loose lips . . . Learn the platforms and off they go.”

In Bulgaria, Norwillo pulled the trigger on the RPG. The grenade detonated instantly, killing him and sending shrapnel into another contractor nearby.

The munition, later found to have been manufactured in 1984, was defective. Norwillo’s widow sued Purple Shovel, Regulus Global and another subcontractor in US court, alleging they “knew that the US government had rejected those same grenades because they were defective, unstable and dangerous”. The case was later settled.

“I felt awful about what happened,” Somerindyke said, adding that he offered help repatriating Norwillo’s body. “But I had nothing to do with what had gone on.” He maintains that Regulus was responsible only for supplying equipment, not training or range safety, and that it had not supplied the grenade that killed Norwillo. “My job was to deliver equipment. I delivered equipment.”

The transition from selling surplus holsters to helping equip rebels with heavy weapons, he would later tell me, was simply “another line item. Just another SKU,” referring to the acronym for a stockkeeping unit. Explosives were just numbers on a spreadsheet.

By 2016, Regulus was growing quickly, with more than 15 employees and roughly $40mn in annual revenue, according to Somerindyke. The company had built a reputation for being able to source and move weapons to difficult places with unusual speed.

Somerindyke believed that by understanding how global supply chains worked — and how geography, energy and politics shaped conflict — he could anticipate demand for armaments before defence ministers asked. “Everything at the end of the day is economics. War is economics,” he said.

His team began predicting what weapons nations needed before they knew themselves. “If somebody was telling us, ‘This is what we need,’ we were already too late.” His relationships with foreign governments deepened, and he avoided making enemies. “You work with extreme personalities and big egos,” he said. “There are borderline psychopaths in this business.”

Somerindyke continued to travel relentlessly, attending meetings with defence ministries or monitoring cargo loading on airstrips. He still tried to ride the first transport flight on each major operation, toting a hammock with him to sleep in the belly of cargo planes. He became increasingly cautious about his own safety, avoiding large hotels and keeping stays abroad as short as possible. The pace took a toll. His marriage began to fail.

As Regulus pursued bigger clients, Somerindyke found himself supplying US partners fighting wars far beyond previous moral boundaries. He travelled to places in the aftermath of mass death, where the stench of bodies lingered in the air. “You know, you pick up smells and stuff,” he said. “Seeing things is one thing. But smells — that’s what stays with you.”

By 2017, Regulus was brokering deals for the Saudi Ministry of Defence, supplying a war in Yemen that had triggered international outrage for mass civilian casualties. The year before, after more than 140 people were killed by air strikes targeting a funeral gathering in the Yemeni capital of Sana’a, the White House said that it would urgently review its support for the Saudi campaign.

A group of experts mandated by the UN Human Rights Council would later conclude “that parties to the armed conflict [in Yemen] have perpetrated, and continue to perpetrate, violations and crimes under international law”.

But the US-brokered weapons continued to flow. Somerindyke said Regulus delivered munitions to the Saudi military in this period “with US personnel on the ground” and always with the correct permissions from the US state department. “I comply with whatever the US government allows or asks me to do,” he told me.

In Syria, especially, the unexpected consequences of the US covert programmes were becoming clear. Some US-backed rebels were accused of executing detainees. A Pentagon plan that was supposed to field 15,000 fighters burned through hundreds of millions of dollars, yet only a handful of graduates ever reached the front lines.

On the ground, arms and money bled across borders and between factions, into Salafi-jihadist groups the US was also trying to kill and towards conflicts that outlasted the programmes meant to shape them. Jordanian intelligence officers were accused of selling weapons on the black market; Bulgarian-made rockets and Romanian machine guns procured under US contracts later turned up in Islamic State caches.

Then in February 2022, Vladimir Putin launched the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Officials in Kyiv scrambled to find weapons and ammunition for a war of national survival. What the Ukrainian army needed was exactly the sort of Soviet-era armaments Somerindyke had spent the past decade learning how to source. Within hours, he said, he began to receive urgent phone calls from Ukrainian officials.

Weeks after the invasion, Somerindyke was standing on the tarmac of an airstrip in eastern Europe in the middle of the night, watching crates of weapons being loaded through the nose of a Ukrainian state-owned Antonov An-124 Ruslan. Loadmasters shuffled six BM-21 trucks, dark green vehicles used to fire Grad rockets, into position alongside 152mm howitzers.

Once cargo was chained down, Somerindyke climbed a ladder to a seat in the rear of the aircraft. The endless rows of old wooden crates filled with weapons reminded him, he recalled, of the warehouse in Indiana Jones. Moments later, the aircraft was rolling down the runway towards Poland. They landed around sunrise at Rzeszów airport, about 100 kilometres from the Ukrainian border, guarded like a military base.

Then Somerindyke decided to go into Ukraine himself, driving overnight with a colleague from Budapest to Lviv to beat the military curfew, then on to Kyiv the next morning. “It was a war zone outside the city . . . bombed tanks everywhere you could see, roads ripped up, buildings blown out, destroyed,” he recalled.

He later travelled closer to the front lines to meet Ukrainian soldiers. “It was interesting to see how much they cared, just how passionate they were. You would have some guys that were very well equipped and some guys that were eating their boots, and they’re just fighting any way they could.”

Somerindyke had always prided himself on being able to “compartmentalise”, to never become emotionally invested. He had sold weapons into brutal conflicts where civilians had been killed and had smelt death. It was just business. “I’m very much an unemotional person,” he told me. But this time, “probably for the first time in my career, I am tied emotionally to this.”

By late 2022, the war in Ukraine had entered a phase few in Europe had foreseen. Soviet-era stockpiles that had languished in ammunition bunkers for decades were suddenly running low. Prices surged. “Nobody had ever said before there wasn’t stock available,” Somerindyke remembered. “You had the type of conflict that had just such an enormous volume of usage, that that was it.”

Ukraine had pushed Russian forces back from Kyiv, but its guns were starving. In the capital, Somerindyke met Oleksiy Petrov, then head of Spetstechnoexport, a Ukrainian state-controlled arms export agency. Petrov said Regulus claimed it could quietly source 155mm shells from countries that would not normally export them to Ukraine, using contacts in the US state department. For a government running out of ammunition, it was an unusually valuable proposal.

The deal Ukraine signed with Regulus, worth as much as $1.7bn, was one of the largest ammunition contracts of the war. For Somerindyke, it represented a kind of culmination. The cold-call hustle, the covert flights, the decade spent navigating shadow supply chains were suddenly marshalled towards a single, enormous undertaking.

But the scale of the contract also forced him into a role Regulus had never played before. Brokers could locate ammunition. They could not manufacture it. To meet Ukraine’s demand, Regulus acquired stakes in Pretis and Binas, the two Bosnian plants with cold-war machinery. Around the same time, according to Cypriot corporate records, the company purchased several Gibraltar-registered container ships, which it planned to use to ferry tens of thousands of shells from the Balkans to Poland. Somerindyke poured tens of millions of dollars into production lines, betting that Bosnia’s factories could be revived fast enough to keep pace with the war.

Then the deal began to fracture. Earlier this year, Spetstechnoexport alleged that Regulus had failed to meet its obligations. Petrov claimed the agency had sent $162.6mn in advance payments to secure badly needed ammunition, funds he said Regulus then used to finance its Bosnian acquisitions. “They used the money we sent them,” he said, “to buy new assets.”

Regulus strongly denies this. The company argues that Ukraine failed to provide the required 30 per cent pre-payment, around $500mn, and that it was this shortfall that caused the delays. The disagreement has since moved to international arbitration in London, where Ukraine is seeking to recover what it said was lost.

Inside Regulus, the strain intensified. Somerindyke was travelling constantly, trying to manage shipments while keeping the Bosnian production lines on track. “There is no sleeping,” he said. “A two-hour nap here, a two-hour nap there. I feel like I have two fire extinguishers on each side of my head. There are fires every day.”

In Bosnia, the difficulties mounted. Regulus complained that it had been denied access to financial reports and audits at Pretis. It pushed for the removal of the factory’s chief executive, citing “inefficient management”. Deliveries began to slip. Money paid in advance appeared to vanish inside the plants. In a letter to the Bosnian government, Regulus warned that the factories were in a “disastrous state” at precisely the moment when their output was most critical.

And then, as Somerindyke tried to hold the pieces together, another pressure emerged. In the US, Donald Trump re-won the presidency, pledging to end the war in Ukraine and drastically reduce American support for Kyiv. For Somerindyke, the implications were unambiguous. The conflict that had driven Regulus’s rapid expansion, and underpinned his bet on Bosnia, could be curtailed, even halted, by a single policy shift.

Over the course of a few months this year, I met with Somerindyke several times, as he explained Regulus’s operations and his view of the changing nature of the arms trade. On one occasion, in Virginia, Somerindyke picked me up in a pick-up coated in black Kevlar. In the back was a wooden baseball bat and a pitching glove. He apologised for the smell of pine tar, a sticky substance players use to get a better grip on the bat.

Up close, he has the same square jaw and broad shoulders of the baseball hopeful he was in 1999. But his beard was threaded with grey, and the years of long-haul travel had left faint lines around the eyes. We drove through Virginia Beach, past the Oceana naval base where he grew up.

Before taking office for the second time, Trump claimed on multiple occasions that he would end the Ukraine war in 24 hours. I asked Somerindyke — what would he do if the fighting stopped tomorrow? Surely that would leave his business and his vast investments in weapons in jeopardy. “I hope the war stops tomorrow,” he said. “It certainly needs to. But even if it did stop tomorrow, there will be a multiyear effort just to reinventory things that have been used.”

In an earlier conversation he had told me he disliked armed conflict. “Nobody likes war. Quite frankly, I don’t even like guns.” He shrugged. “Look, it would be great if it was all rainbows and sunshine, peace everywhere. But that’s not the world.”

On another occasion, we met outside Dallas at the site of Union, a new venture capital-backed defence manufacturer Somerindyke recently helped launch as chief executive. Union aims to become the first company to bring modern, automated manufacturing techniques — the kind used in the high-tech and automotive industries — to the production of 155mm artillery shells.

Union and Regulus are separate but have a strategic relationship. Regulus is a minority investor and early customer, while Union is designed to be a standalone manufacturer, using a very different approach from the decades-old machinery in Bosnia. Union is his attempt to define the future of war production.

Somerindyke admitted that part of Union’s positioning was a response to Silicon Valley’s recent expansion into the defence world. He wondered what would happen when the ethos behind autonomous drones and algorithmic targeting reached the munitions business. Union was his attempt to find out, before the field changed.

He handed me a rubber mock-up of a 155mm round, the type he hoped the factory would be producing. Inside the office, diagrams of the planned production line hung on the walls. A team of engineers, several of them former Tesla staff, watched digital simulations of machining steps on large monitors.

Outside, in a cavernous industrial space, dozens of workers in hard hats and hi-vis vests were assembling the line. Forklifts drifted past stacks of steel tubing. A stars and stripes as large as a double-decker bus hung from one wall. “I think the US government will end up being our biggest customer,” Somerindyke told me.

Regulus, he said, was on track to post $1bn in annual revenues next year — up from about $50mn before the Ukraine war — as it fulfils orders for large European governments buying shells on Kyiv’s behalf. The Bosnian operations, he added, were beginning to stabilise. Over time, the advanced manufacturing techniques being developed in Texas could be exported to the Balkans.

Later he told me about the championship game his local amateur baseball team had recently won. “I pitched the whole game; we won, went undefeated for the season. First time that’s ever happened in that league.”

The moment the game ended, he had to leave for the airport. “I got to celebrate for maybe 15 minutes,” Somerindyke said. “I’m literally in the parking lot wiping myself down. We landed in Switzerland at 8am for a meeting at 9.30am. That’s a perfect look at what my life seems to be.”

Baseball, with its churning statistics — batting averages, strikeouts, wins — had once offered Somerindyke the opportunity to quantify himself. He’d hoped to generate the numbers to become a success. But it was the arms trade — with its SKUs, tonnage, contract numbers — that had delivered on a field where everything could still be reduced to a score. “Everyone’s got competitive juices,” he said. “So yeah, sure, that’s maybe what drives me.” On another occasion he told me: “The worst thing I would ever want, is that by the time my end is here, they would say: ‘Man, he had potential.’”

A decade earlier, when he had first moved from selling holsters to supplying America’s 21st-century covert wars, the weapons were “just another SKU”. Bombs were stock codes that could be purchased, financed, shipped. He had thrived in a system where the difference between ammunition for Syria, Yemen or Ukraine was logistical, not moral.

Now the scale has grown, but the logic is the same. For governments, that makes him useful. For the industry, it makes him successful. The wars might change, the customers might change, but the products remain just another line item on a spreadsheet.