FT : Gold funds shine after year of record highs

Gold funds shine after year of record highs
Top performers all had one thing in common: precious metals

Gold and silver funds have topped the charts as this year’s best performers, as the precious metals have rocketed to record highs.

The UK’s top 10 performing funds run by managers in 2025 were all invested in gold, miners or precious metals, according to Morningstar Direct, with the leader being Franklin Gold and Precious Metals, which returned 184 per cent in the year to mid-December.

The sparkling performance comes after gold and silver rallied to record highs, driven by geopolitical instability, a move by central banks to diversify from the dollar, persistent inflation, and a “fear of missing out” on the rally among investors.

The price of gold has surged by about 60 per cent this year to more than $4,300 a troy ounce. Silver also reached a record high in December of more than $60 an ounce, driven by a scarcity of supply and a surge in demand.



“Gold and precious metals have been leading the way in 2025 with some astonishing returns,” said Darius McDermott, managing director of fund rating service FundCalibre. “What is also worth observing is that there have been very strong returns from most equity markets this year, too, and not just the US.”

Among the top funds were SVS Baker Steel Gold and Precious metals, Schroder International Selection Fund Global Gold, BlackRock World Gold fund and the Jupiter Gold and Silver fund.

Similarly, the top 10 performing funds on sale in Europe were also focused on gold and precious metals.

Kenneth Lamont, principal at Morningstar, said that as a result of gold prices reaching record highs, Europe’s best-performing funds “are overwhelmingly concentrated in precious metal-focused strategies.”

However, he added that “India-focused funds feature repeatedly among the worst performers.

“Tariff [challenges] have weighed on growth expectations, while a tumbling rupee has pushed Indian equity returns into negative territory for UK investors this year.

“Funds with significant exposure to Indian technology stocks were hit particularly hard, as profits were squeezed by falling global demand for outsourcing and IT services.”



Daniel Casali, chief investment strategist at wealth management firm Evelyn Partners, noted that gold “can play a useful role in investment portfolios as an alternative asset that can provide diversification and balance to more traditional asset classes like equities and bonds.”

He added: “With Western public debt continuing to rise and gold’s proven role as an inflation hedge, as evident in 2022, when equities and bonds fell while gold held steady, holding bullion provides resilience amid geopolitical and financial uncertainty.”

Laith Khalaf, head of investment analysis at AJ Bell, noted that “the conditions which have created the gold rush don’t look like abating, and lower interest rates should be positive for the precious metal.

“However despite its reputation as the ultimate safe haven, gold is volatile, and buyers should beware there can be steep downdrafts and long periods in the wilderness.”

Still, gold’s rally has sparked a warning from the Bank for International Settlements. It said gold and US stocks showed the hallmarks of a bubble, noting the “exuberance” of retail investors as well as rocketing prices and hype.

“The past few quarters represent the only time in at least the last 50 years in which gold and equities have entered this territory simultaneously,” the BIS noted. “Following its explosive phase, a bubble typically bursts with a sharp and swift correction.”

The Information : Sports Betting Everywhere: Prediction Markets Explode

Sports Betting Everywhere: Prediction Markets Explode
As DraftKings, FanDuel and Coinbase jump on the prediction markets bandwagon, sports leagues are still figuring out what the explosion of betting upstarts will mean for them.

Prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket have gained popularity in the U.S. by letting people bet on everything from elections to Oscar winners to weather trends. But over the past year, a substantial portion of their wagers—and in Kalshi’s case the vast majority—have come from sports betting. And now traditional sportsbooks and crypto exchanges are crashing the prediction market party.

DraftKings, one of the two largest online sportsbooks in the U.S., launched its own prediction market yesterday, with rival FanDuel pledging to do the same this month. Crypto exchange Coinbase launched a prediction market on Wednesday, joining its peers Robinhood and Crypto.com, which introduced their own prediction markets in late 2024.

Not everyone is thrilled about the explosion of prediction markets. Operators of traditional casinos believe the markets are undercutting their business and skirting state and tribal regulations. And some sports leagues are spooked by the looser federal oversight of prediction markets compared to other forms of betting, which could increase the risk of point shaving by players or other potential scandals.

This week, for example, the NCAA slammed a preliminary step by Kalshi that could allow its customers to wager on college athletes’ decisions to switch schools, which could tempt players to bet on their own choices or otherwise manipulate markets.

All of these developments are coalescing into a broad debate over whether sports prediction markets are a form of sports betting, a question many expect the U.S. Supreme Court to eventually decide. The outcome could clobber either prediction sites or traditional sportsbooks.


Functionally, prediction markets operate as exchanges that allow customers to trade with each other on event outcomes—for example, whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates in January or whether Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce will get married this year. Prediction markets like Kalshi make money by charging a fee on transactions. In contrast, sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings set the odds on an event, then accept wagers and pay out winnings to bettors.

While prediction markets and sportsbooks work differently, they both allow people to essentially do the same thing: make or lose money on the outcomes of events, such as whether Alabama Crimson Tide will win a football game. The result is uncertainty about whether the activities on prediction markets constitute sports betting—Kalshi and Polymarket categorize them as “event contracts”—and who gets to regulate it.

Currently, prediction markets are under the jurisdiction of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, which is in charge of issuing federally regulated licenses to them (event contracts are considered a form of derivatives, which the agency is in charge of regulating). They got a boost this year under the Trump administration, which has largely taken a hands-off approach to regulating sports contracts. As a result, Kalshi launched sports contracts in January, which caused its trading volume to skyrocket. Sports contracts make up 70% of its trading volume.

Sportsbooks are regulated by states, where they typically face broader, stricter rules such as supporting the prevention of gambling addiction. Since the U.S. Supreme Court struck down a federal ban on sports-related wagers in 2018, 40 U.S. states and the District of Columbia have legalized the practice.

Predictably, many states aren’t thrilled about the prospect of prediction markets serving their residents, in some cases because they may hurt other forms of licensed gambling. Kalshi is suing several states, including Nevada, Maryland, New York and Connecticut, after they sent the company cease-and-desist orders alleging its offering constitutes illegal sports gambling. Meanwhile, Coinbase on Thursday sued three states—Michigan, Illinois and Connecticut—over their attempts to regulate prediction markets.


In the meantime, traditional sportsbooks like FanDuel and DraftKings are—if you’ll pardon the pun—hedging their bets by launching their own sports prediction markets in states like California where they can’t legally operate traditional sports-betting businesses. (They’re steering clear of doing so in states like New York, where sports gaming is regulated.)

Corey Gottlieb, chief product officer for DraftKings, said the company wants to give its customers access to prediction markets and other offerings that they find compelling, but it doesn’t want to do so while stepping on the toes of the state gaming authorities who license their sportsbooks. DraftKings Predictions, as its new prediction market is known, is available in 38 states with varying categories of contracts across sports, financial markets and other types of events.

“We certainly aren’t just like, ‘Hey, if people are offering this product, we gotta be there too, and we don’t really care how we do it,’” Gottlieb said.

Similarly, Coinbase and Robinhood are offering prediction markets as a way to keep users engaged by helping their platforms become one-stop shops for trading in all its forms, from equities to crypto. “What we’ve seen is that people are really interested in all forms of speculation and trading,” said Scott Shapiro, Coinbase’s head of trading. Prediction markets are “the intersection of entertainment and information with trading,” he said.

Their bets on prediction markets seem to be paying off. At Robinhood, prediction markets have become the company’s fastest-growing product line by revenue ever. It launched its first event contract—for the outcome of the 2024 U.S. presidential election—late last year. It soon added other events, including sports, which has become one of its biggest categories. Based on October figures, Robinhood’s prediction markets business is on track to achieve $300 million in annualized revenues, the company said. (Robinhood’s 2024 revenue was $2.95 billion.)

“What we’ve seen is our users for prediction markets are our typical users within Robinhood—these are mid-30s types of investors…who view it as part of their overall portfolio,” said JB Mackenzie, Robinhood’s general manager of futures and international, who leads its prediction markets. Prediction markets also attract new, young users to “enter into the investing world,” he said, because of the low costs for a bet. “You can do a $10 trade.”

While sports leagues have cozied up to traditional forms of betting in recent years, most of them are sitting on the sidelines when it comes to prediction markets.

Executives from the NFL, the world’s richest sports league, have repeatedly lobbied against sports prediction markets due to concerns that they aren’t sufficiently regulated and don’t have sufficient safeguards against potential market manipulation.

Roger Goodell, commissioner of the NFL, said at a conference earlier this month that the league “does not plan on participating in prediction markets without a regulatory framework in place as well as the need for more comfort on the risks to the integrity of the sport.”

In May, the NBA also sent a letter to the CFTC explaining its own concerns about the differences between how wagers are regulated at the state and federal levels. In the letter, which The Information viewed, NBA Vice President and Assistant General Counsel Alexandra Roth wrote that state gaming regulators must give approval to any new sports betting markets before they launch to the public, whereas prediction markets can launch by certifying the contracts themselves to the CFTC.

That “puts the burden of initiating any post-launch review on the CFTC and allows most contract markets to simply proceed unchecked,” Roth wrote.

The leagues’ sensitivities regarding prediction markets were on vivid display this week, when Kalshi filed with the CFTC to offer wagers on which college athletes may transfer between universities.

Ever since 2021, when the NCAA began allowing college athletes to accept endorsement money, the landscape for top talent has become a free-for-all. Star football quarterbacks, basketball point guards and others are transferring between schools more frequently, ostensibly to get the best marketing deals and playing opportunities.

But turning that player movement into betting opportunities on Kalshi could cause a number of problems. NCAA President Charlie Baker warned in a post on X on Thursday that such markets could worsen online abuse directed toward college athletes by disappointed bettors or could disrupt public trust in the outcomes of their games.

“It is already bad enough that student-athletes face harassment and abuse for lost bets on game performance, and now Kalshi wants to offer bets on their transfer decisions and status—this is absolutely unacceptable and would place even greater pressure on student-athletes while threatening competition integrity and recruiting processes,” Baker wrote.

Kalshi said in its own statement Thursday that it has “no immediate plans” to list college transfer contracts. It said it frequently obtains certification for markets that it does not end up offering to customers. Kalshi also said it has both internal and external surveillance systems that refer “suspicious market activity”—which could include insider trading by college athletes or their associates—to the CFTC for enforcement.

“We are engaging with all the leagues to make sure they understand how we work and how we don’t,” said Sara Slane, Kalshi’s head of corporate development. “Our message to all the sports leagues is that we want to work in partnership and promote integrity—that we have aligned interest.”

Specifically, Kalshi wants to use official league logos and data, and to work with the leagues to ensure it prevents prohibited people–such as athletes and team personnel—from trading on event contracts related to themselves.

“We are not tone-deaf to what has been happening in the space with online sports betting operations,” said Slane.

What’s been happening is a growing number of gambling scandals in which NBA and MLB coaches and players allegedly manipulated their performance to generate guaranteed payouts on prop bets—wagers on occurrences during full games, such as how many points a given player would score.

Slane said Kalshi doesn’t allow microbets—wagers on, say, an imminent basketball shot or pitch—which are easy for a player to manipulate and have seen major pushback by some states.

And while Kalshi offers prop bets, it only allows users to bet on whether an outcome would be above certain points rather than below them. “It’s a lot easier for a player to manipulate on the under side than it is on the over side,” said Slane.

“We put some parameters and restrictions around it to ensure that we are being sensitive to what’s happening right now,” she added.

Not every league is against the prediction market explosion.

The NHL, for one, signed commercial partnerships this fall with both Kalshi and Polymarket. In a statement, the league said the deals “actually put us in a better position to promote consumer protection and integrity—consumers can more readily identify contracts offered by NHL partners (who have met our reputational requirements) built using official NHL data.”

Meanwhile, not every crypto exchange is rushing out to offer a prediction market.

OKX, one of the biggest crypto exchanges, has no such plan, in part because of the regulatory uncertainty around these markets. “There’s a lot of counter-lobbying happening, so we’re watching cautiously,” said Haider Rafique, OKX’s global managing partner and chief marketing officer.

“If the volume ends up congregating on sports betting [on prediction markets], I think it also creates legal complexity for crypto platforms, because they’re now in a new territory of regulations,” Rafique said. “Don’t we have enough baggage already?”

Rafique is also not sure whether prediction markets are a fad or here to stay. “I would argue prediction markets are more pro-cyclical and volatile than traditional crypto, because it really relies on those big moments,” he said. “This feels a lot like the [non-fungible token] craze that happened post-Covid.”

FT : The sports business stories to watch in 2026

The sports business stories to watch in 2026
World Cup intrigue, F1’s Apple era, NBA expansion and more

Fifa’s World Cup money machine
The biggest sporting story of the year will surely be the Fifa World Cup in the US, Canada and Mexico. There will be plenty of political threads to pull on — such as whether the three host nations can be civil to each other throughout the five-week event and whether fans from certain countries will be let in.

But the commercial story will be fascinating to watch unfold too. The recent row over ticket prices is just an early salvo in a broader battle about what — and who — the World Cup is for. Is it football’s great coming together, a moment where the beautiful game silences all else? Or is it the one chance Fifa has each four years to reap a harvest of cash that it can then use to invest in the game? Can it be both?

In the months to come, those who want to challenge Fifa’s power through the courts will no doubt lean into the argument that the governing body has lost its way in pursuit of profit. The ticket price row adds fuel to the fire. Perhaps more so now than in the past, a few days of bad press could have real ramifications.

The Apple era begins at F1
Formula 1 made a big statement when it dumped Disney’s ESPN to partner with iPhone maker Apple. ESPN, which had broadcast F1 in the US since 2018, enjoyed a record-breaking final season, with an average of 1.3mn viewers per grand prix.

But US owner Liberty Media is looking to supercharge growth in the US. The big question is whether Apple can emulate the success of F1 The Movie, which starred Hollywood actor Brad Pitt and grossed more than $630mn globally at the box office.

F1 has played up the fact that there is more to the new partnership than broadcasting races on Apple TV, with plans to “amplify the sport across Apple News, Apple Maps, Apple Music, and Apple Fitness+”.

Developments on the track are also key to Liberty Media’s American dream. The grid is expanding thanks to Cadillac F1, the newly established 11th team owned by US billionaire Mark Walter, whose sports portfolio also includes the $10bn LA Lakers.

It’s never easy to succeed in F1, but at least every team is dealing with the massive overhaul of the sport’s regulations. New cars, new engines, new puzzles for engineers to solve. Which teams and drivers will adapt best?

Continuing to strive for F1 to be spoken about in the same breath as the Super Bowl or the NBA playoffs is vital to Liberty’s ambitions.

Private equity arrives in US college sports
Private equity and college sports spent much of 2025 circling each other. That changed last week when the University of Utah struck the first-ever private equity deal in college athletics with Otro Capital, which will invest in a for-profit company created in partnership with the public university. Then came news that the Big 12 — one of four top-tier conferences in college sports — was nearing a $500mn private capital deal with RedBird Capital Partners and Weatherford Capital.

The economics of college sports have transformed in the last five years. The legalisation of “name, image and likeness” (NIL) payments in 2021 allowed college athletes to earn money for endorsements. A landmark antitrust settlement in June permitted universities to share revenues with players. The amateur model is officially dead. 

US college sports generate tens of billions of dollars in media rights and sponsorship, largely driven by the popularity of American football and basketball. But university athletic departments, already notorious spendthrifts, face rising costs as college athletics increasingly resemble professional sports. Private equity thinks it has the solution.

The NBA answers exp
Talk of NBA expansion, both domestically and internationally, has been brewing for years. In 2026, we should finally get some clarity.

Commissioner Adam Silver said on Tuesday the NBA will decide on domestic expansion next year, mentioning Seattle and Las Vegas as potential targets. Seattle seems like a slam dunk should the league choose to expand. The city has a rich NBA history (SuperSonics relaunch, anyone?) and a deep-pocketed tech industry to tap into. Las Vegas already hosts the league’s annual Summer League and the later rounds of the NBA Cup — the relatively new in-season tournament that gave Knicks fans a (not quite real) championship to celebrate this week. But the NBA has reportedly been underwhelmed by local enthusiasm for the Cup, while Vegas has lost some of its shine since legal gambling exploded across the US. Could other options emerge? 

On the international front, the NBA has said it could begin fielding club bids for its planned European league early next year. It aims to combine existing basketball teams (think Real Madrid or Barcelona) with new ones in key markets such as London and Paris, where the Qatari owners of Paris Saint-Germain have shown interest in launching a franchise. The NBA would like to capitalise on passionate fan bases around the region. But commercial success in basketball hotspots such as Turkey or Greece could be a challenge — as will instilling basketball tradition in Europe’s football-mad metropolises.

WNBA and MLB: are lockouts looming?
The WNBA and its players are negotiating a new collective bargaining agreement that will reset the economics of the fast-growing women’s basketball league. The WNBA has reportedly offered significant salary increases, but players are seeking a larger slice of the revenue pie. Talks have been acrimonious. The players’ union voted overwhelmingly this week to authorise calling a strike “when necessary”. Facing a January 9 deadline to agree a new CBA, a work stoppage seems increasingly likely.

Meanwhile, the MLB’s 2026 season will be the last under its current CBA, and the league seems destined for a gruelling labour battle of its own. Owners may push for a salary cap, a third-rail issue for players (ahem, Bryce Harper). With MLB franchise valuations lagging behind other major US sports leagues, a salary cap could provide greater cost certainty and competitive balance. The Los Angeles Dodgers are already reloading after winning their second straight World Series last season. But are dynasties such a bad thing?

Who wins the war for Warner Bros Discovery?
The battle for Warner Bros Discovery is likely to have big implications for sport. WBD owns TNT Sports and Eurosport.

This is not just a US story. TNT Sports is the main UK broadcaster for English club rugby, The Ashes and has a slice of English Premier League games. Across Europe, it is a key broadcast partner for the Olympic Games and the tennis Grand Slams.

Suitor Paramount has been splashing huge sums recently to acquire rights to UFC in the US and the Uefa Champions League in several big European markets. If Paramount’s hostile takeover succeeds, the combined entity would become a new global powerhouse in sports rights.

If the bid from Netflix ultimately wins out, WBD’s sports business is set to be hived off, perhaps making a juicy acquisition target for someone else. We’ll be watching this one closely.

Real Madrid’s radical investment plan
Most analysts agree that Real Madrid is the most valuable football team in the world. Real estate tycoon Florentino Pérez, who has ruled at Spain’s most successful club for much of this century, wants to capitalise.

He has unveiled plans to bring outside shareholders into the inner circle at Real Madrid for the first time. Football Benchmark, the consultancy and data provider, values Real Madrid at €6.3bn including debt. Pérez thinks €10bn isn’t too fanciful.

But the club’s ownership model could be a hindrance. Navigating the 100,000 individual members, or socios, who own Real means Pérez and his advisers at Key Capital will have to be creative. A deal that puts a value on Real Madrid would set a new benchmark for the rest of football.

Private capital: the $2.5tn opportunity?
Apollo’s new sports investing vehicle has already made waves. Apollo Sports Capital has backed Wrexham AFC, the football team owned by Hollywood duo Ryan Reynolds and Rob Mac; Spanish football club Atlético Madrid; and Ari Emanuel’s MARI.

This as private capital firms increasingly see sport as an asset class. So how many more deals might we see?

“The business of sports has evolved from ticket sales and local sponsorships into a $2.5 trillion-plus global ecosystem spanning media, merchandise, wellness, and live entertainment, powered by scalable, multi-channel monetisation,” says Apollo in a white paper.

In fact, the argument goes, most sports franchises aren’t borrowing enough when you take into account record valuations. Even better for private capital, commercial banks have largely steered clear of sports.

Apollo adds: “Traditional lenders have long treated the sector as niche, leaving inefficiencies and gaps in the capital stack. Despite record valuations, most franchises remain under-levered at roughly 10 per cent loan-to-value, creating vast potential for hybrid and private credit solutions to unlock liquidity, optimise balance sheets, and capture equity-like upside, with credit-like risk.”

Sophisticated investors are entering an industry that is not known for financial sophistication. Who stands to benefit?

The Hundred’s big revamp
After raising more than £500mn from investors through the auction of stakes in eight team franchises in The Hundred, English cricket will start to feel the impact of the new owners.

Silicon Valley chief executives, New York hedge funds and Indian billionaires will all be directly in the short-form competition when it returns next summer. Expect to see a whole host of new commercial deals, name changes and big spending on top players. Will that be enough to take the competition to the next level?

Will the NFL renegotiate its media rights deal?
The NFL’s $111bn media rights deal contains an opt-out after the 2029-30 season, but commissioner Roger Goodell has signalled the league could begin renegotiating as soon as next year. The NFL would need its partners — Disney, NBCUniversal, Paramount, Amazon and Fox — to agree to come to the table early. But there’s little reason to believe they wouldn’t follow the NFL’s lead. The sport, by far the most-watched content on American television, is indispensable in today’s fragmented media landscape. As streamers’ hunger for live sport grows, renegotiation would allow the networks to lock up NFL rights for years to come. Expect the world’s richest league to get richer.

FT : Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money

Prediction markets barely make money; sportsbooks make money
Kalshi’s ‘truth machine’ is financialising differences of opinion (about sports)

Imagine a 30-minute interview with the CEO of OnlyFans where adult content is never mentioned. Given that it’s the focus of roughly 80 per cent of their video creators and is the main appeal of the site for its customers, you’d expect it to come up at least once.

It should seem equally strange, then, for Tarek Mansour, the CEO of the prediction market Kalshi, to give a wide-ranging interview and never talk about the thing driving more than 90 per cent of the activity on his site: sports betting.

In a talk this month at the Multicoin Summit in New York, Mansour discussed the long-term vision for his company, which allows people to trade shares of “event contracts”, priced based on the probabilities of various outcomes, and which recently raised $1bn from investors at an $11bn valuation:

Financialise everything. Everything can be a tradeable asset. The universe of what is tradeable today versus what it can be is so small . . . economic indicators, weather and climate, Covid, healthcare numbers, what Taylor Swift is going to do or not do . . . That can be applied to anything. Anything that has a difference in opinion can be traded someday.

One small omission from that list:


It was not the only time recently that Mansour avoided mentioning the thing driving ~all of his business . . . nor the only time that he showcased his keen awareness of a certain pop-cultural phenomenon:

You know we're seeing incredibly strong evidence or attraction in the cultural markets, for example. I actually think like what's happening with Taylor Swift, healthcare numbers, what Taylor Swift is going to do or not do and how her albums are going to perform. There's a market here for something I care about, like, you know, there's markets on like what, you know, Taylor, how well the album for like the next Taylor Swift album is going to do. Nearly 33,500 markets on the company's platform, like who will be a bridesmaid in Taylor Swift's wedding. So you can trade, buy and sell yes or no shares on whether Brexit is going to happen, Trump is gonna win the election, whether it's gonna rain tomorrow, whether COVID is gonna come back or whether Taylor Swift is gonna release an album this year. I think that like-- Can you give us an example of like one market that like-- Yeah, I think like who's gonna attend Taylor Swift's wedding for example, like, I think that thing over time could rival the Super Bowl.


Prediction markets came into the spotlight last year when they began offering Americans the opportunity to bet on elections en masse. This could be done legally on Kalshi, after a long legal fight, or via VPN on rival Polymarket, which only recently acquired approval from the CFTC to operate legally in the US.

But a far larger shift has taken place in the months after the election. Kalshi, equipped with its requisite Trump family member, has pushed past previously acknowledged limitations on futures contracts and transformed itself into a sports betting site.

Kalshi first dipped its toes into sports betting in the spring, but the volume has exploded since the start of the American football season in September. To date, there has been $16.8bn in trading volume on sports on the platform, against $4.9bn on all other topics.

Some regular-season NFL games have seen more than $60mn in trades. The top two of these games, alone, saw more volume than the New York City mayoral election, the most popular political event of the year on the platform.

Those “volume” numbers are somewhat fuzzy, as they include both sides of every transaction and accumulate totals for shares that are re-traded before the market resolves. An $0.80 share that is bought, sold and re-bought would count as $3 towards volume — including the $0.20 shares traded by another bettor as a counterparty — while it would only have counted as $0.80 towards the “handle” of a traditional sportsbook.

Because of their fee structure, their trading revenues appear to be even more lopsided than the volume, with approximately 89 per cent of all fees ever collected on Kalshi trades coming from sports. In recent months, that figure seems to hover closer to 95 per cent. Even for DraftKings, one of the two largest American sportsbooks, sports betting represented only 52 per cent of their revenue in Q3, against roughly 90 per cent for Kalshi in the same period.


There are two pieces driving the sports domination of Kalshi’s trading revenue:

  1. The appeal to bettors and the very high volume this drives
  2. A fee structure which allows Kalshi to extract more money per share on an average sports trade

Consider the limitations of election markets: they are relatively infrequent, often lopsided with low returns for backing the favourite, and many of the high-profile events occur simultaneously. Even when a market is “informationally” resolved, it can remain open for days or weeks before it is technically resolved, which locks up bettors’ money or forces them to cut into their winnings by cashing out early.

Sports markets, on the other hand, feature many high-volume, time-limited, scheduled events, spread out throughout the year. They resolve reliably within an hour or so of a pre-determined time and can be highly volatile, even through the last few minutes of trading, offering bettors many entry points with the potential for quick returns. There is also a large ecosystem of resources offering information to give bettors a real or perceived edge.

The incentives for most bettors to trade on a market just do not necessarily correlate with its research value or usefulness in the “truth machine”. So long as you think you have an edge, a dollar made off of an NBA match-up is the same as a dollar made off the presidential election, and you can probably get that dollar a lot more quickly.

Unsurprisingly, about 40 per cent of all shares traded on Kalshi’s markets are exchanged within two hours of the market closing, including more than half of all shares priced at 90¢ or more.

The other thing driving the profitability of sports markets for Kalshi is the fee structure. In part by chance, in part by design, they are extracting significantly more for sports trades.

The vast majority of Kalshi’s fees are collected on the taker side of trades. For most markets, they only charge fees on orders that are immediately matched — though nearly all of the markets where they do charge maker fees are sports markets.

Their taker fee formula has a quadratic relationship to the price of the shares being traded (that’s the one that forms a pleasant, arching curve without the tails), which encourages liquidity on high-priced, low-potential-return shares. These fees also round up to the nearest cent, slightly penalising smaller trades:


An analysis of trade-level data from Kalshi shows part of why this fee structure may yield higher revenues on sports markets. Relative to other markets, a larger proportion of sports market shares are traded in those middle price ranges, where the highest per-share fees are charged:


And though trade-level fee data is not publicly available, by doing some careful math on the trade data that is available, it’s possible to derive a rough approximation of the fees per share across categories, which tracks with what we could infer from that share price distribution:


A few caveats here.

First, the rules around Kalshi’s maker fee structure have changed several times over the past year. Most notably, their maker fees weren’t introduced until this spring, and they were restructured significantly over the summer.

Second, since May 2025, Kalshi has had a Market Maker Program in place, where a set of large market makers, such as Susquehanna Investment Group, provide liquidity on the platform and receive reduced fees.

Information about the identities of these market makers, the structure of their reduced fees, and which trades they are responsible for is mostly locked away in classified CFTC filings. We do know that, in addition to Susquehanna, the market makers include Kalshi Trading, an affiliated company that somewhat controversially trades on the platform. There are also some restrictions on the market maker trading hours and volumes — such as confining trading on sporting events to pre-game periods.

Very large traders also qualify for partial rebates on their fees, so the nominal fee at trade time may not represent real revenue. Like the market makers, there isn’t enough publicly available information to estimate the size or shape of these rebates.

In short, I’ve done my best, but there’s some level of uncertainty. Consider any maker fees here to be a rough “upper limit”, but even so, they’re a relatively small part of the picture.

So why the shyness around the meat of their actual business?

First, there’s the fact that the “sports-related event contract exchanges” they are facilitating may actually constitute illegal, unregulated sports gambling, in violation of the Wire Act, the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act and state-level regulators.

Kalshi has taken advantage of a somewhat “lax” regulatory environment under Trump’s CFTC, which regulates Kalshi as a “designated contract market”. The agency — down to one of five commissioners and still without a permanent chair — has been unwilling or uninterested in taking action against sports-related event contracts.

These were previously considered off-limits under a CFTC regulation which prohibits event contracts on “gaming” — as well as those related to terrorism, assassination or war — but only if the commission makes an explicit determination that a market is against the public interest. Kalshi argues that the lack of action makes their sports markets legal event contracts and that the CFTC’s authority to regulate those event contracts pre-empts state-level gaming laws.

This has led to many legal fights, some of which Kalshi is not winning. It turns out that states and tribes that regulate and tax gambling aren’t too happy about something very “gambling-shaped” going unregulated and untaxed. Meanwhile, the states which don’t allow gambling are also not too happy about something very “gambling-shaped” advertising itself as “the first nationwide legal sports betting platform”. This latter group of states also notably includes Texas and California, and their 71mn residents.

Facilitating sports betting is also a less interesting story than being a “truth machine”. Kalshi talking about themselves as a sportsbook would be like WeWork talking about themselves as a commercial landlord.

Even if they have exploited a new “regulatory niche” here, it’s one that established gaming companies can, and are, jumping into. FanDuel and DraftKings, the two largest “traditional” American sportsbooks have each partnered with CFTC-licensed exchanges and plan to begin offering prediction market products.

Another well-resourced group that doesn’t see much of a distinction between prediction markets and gambling: the leagues themselves. They don’t seem particularly happy about an arrangement that involves significantly less regulatory oversight on platforms that may be susceptible to insider trading, at a time when integrity concerns are already under the microscope

If you try to place a bet on Kalshi on the Chicago Bears winning the Super Bowl (a boy can dream), you’d notice that there is no market for “Super Bowl winner”. Instead, there’s a market for “Pro Football Champion”, where “Chicago” is listed as an option, without a team name or logo. This is because the major sports leagues (with the notable exception of the National Hockey League) have not allowed prediction markets to use league data, logos or official designations.

In the spring, each of the three largest North American sports leagues — the NFL, NBA, and MLB — submitted letters to the CFTC expressing concerns about the ability of the agency to regulate gambling on these platforms. Last week, in a testimony submitted to the House Committee on Agriculture, the NFL’s vice-president for communications Jeff Miller was a bit more explicit:

Until such time that professional sports leagues and fans can be certain that effective game integrity and consumer protection measures can be enforced, sports-related events contracts should not be approved by the CFTC, and Congress should consider clarifying the definition of ‘gaming’ contracts in the prohibited categories of the Commodity Exchange Act. [h/t Dustin Gouker]

NCAA president Charlie Baker, who oversees college football, chimed in as well, warning that “prediction markets are not regulated at all . . . you’re basically talking about no rules, no oversight, no nothing. And that just feels catastrophic to me. Not just for us, but for everybody.” Major League Baseball sent a letter to its players as well, making clear that it considered prediction market trades to be gambling.

Suffice to say, it seems unlikely that the Chicago Bears logo will be appearing on Kalshi’s website anytime soon.

I’ll admit to (embarrassingly) being a bit of a sucker for the idea of the “truth machine” that these prediction market companies are trying to hold onto. Mansour wasn’t wrong when he recently described prediction markets as offering reporters “a tool, a stock, or a ticker or a market . . . a number now to all of these things that they’re talking about.”

As I described last year — in a piece that has admittedly not aged very well — the way that these markets move in response to news events can be informative, even if the specific prices aren’t necessarily “accurate”. This is particularly true for events that would be otherwise impossible to poll or model, such as Joe Biden dropping out of the 2024 presidential race, or who is likely to be the next Fed Chair.

It’s a compelling idea, even if the ethics of various markets can be pretty dubious. But for Kalshi, as it turns out, “truth machine” is more of a byproduct than a core business.

FT : How Ford’s bet on an electric ‘truck of the future’ led to a $19.5bn writed

How Ford’s bet on an electric ‘truck of the future’ led to a $19.5bn writedown
The F-150 Lightning economics did not add up but also reflected industry-wide miscalculation of US EV uptake

Ford chief executive Jim Farley declared his all-electric F-150 Lightning the “truck of the future” when it was unveiled in 2021. But this week the automaker’s flagship EV pick-up was consigned to the past as part of a spectacular $19.5bn writedown.

After its electric “Model e” division amassed more than $13bn in losses since 2023, the Michigan-based company’s tactical retreat was welcomed by Wall Street analysts and investors. Ford shares rose after Monday’s announcement, and are up almost 40 per cent this year as the company has pared back its EV ambitions.

“We expect the restructuring will help enhance the product portfolio, simplify operations and improve margins and free cash flow,” said Fitch Ratings analyst Eric Ause, noting that of the charges reported this week, “only about $5.5bn” would result in cash outflows.

Farley said this month that western automakers were in a “fight for our lives” amid growing Chinese EV competition. But he argued that pivoting to hybrid vehicles would allow them to generate profits to reinvest in future EV platforms when the market is ready.

With the Trump administration having recently eliminated a $7,500 consumer tax credit for EV purchases, as well as proposing to slash fuel efficiency requirements, some experts worry that the Detroit carmakers will face little incentive from the government, consumers or investors to make a renewed EV push.

Tim Bush, a Hong Kong-based battery analyst for UBS, said the slowing of the transition risked the US turning into the “Galápagos Islands of internal combustion engine vehicles”, making it a separate ecosystem characterised by a lack of innovation relative to the rest of the world.

“What we are seeing once again is short-term profit considerations being given precedence over long-term strategic moves,” he added.

Tu Le, founder of Detroit-based consultancy Sino Auto Insights, said the US car industry was growing increasingly vulnerable to a wave of foreign competition led by low-cost Chinese rivals that are storming other global markets — and which may not be kept out of the US forever.

“The automakers have much less time than they seem to think,” he said. “Now the same executives who bungled their first attempt at electrification are promising they will get it right next time.”

Ford rejects suggestions that it has botched its EV transition, arguing its losses were driven principally by unrealistic optimism across the industry about consumer demand for EVs.

“We are looking at the market as it is today, not just as everyone predicted it to be five years ago,” said Andrew Frick, the head of Ford’s petrol engine and electric businesses, this week.

Tom Narayan, global autos analyst for RBC Capital Markets, said US automakers had brought forward their expectations for EV demand growth in the early 2020s, amid low interest rates and a post-pandemic consumer spending spree that led to EVs “selling like hot cakes”.

But since then EV adoption has been buffeted by steep inflation and higher interest rates, as well as the effects of tariffs, vacillating government policy and inadequate fast-charging infrastructure in the US.

“The EV slowdown is not Ford’s fault,” Narayan stressed.

Ford insiders argue that the structure of the company means that its EV losses receive more scrutiny than those of its Detroit rivals because, unlike General Motors or Stellantis, it breaks down its financial results by business division.

GM said in November 2022 that it expected to have a “solidly profitable” EV business producing 1mn units a year by 2025. Instead, it has sold 144,668 EVs in the first three quarters of this year, recording a $1.6bn impairment charge in October.

But Bush of UBS said that specific decisions made by Ford’s leadership meant the EV slowdown hit the carmaker harder than its crosstown rival.

The weight and power demands of the F-150 Lightning meant it required a large, heavy battery pack with ultra-high energy-density cells and elevated fire risks, driving up costs and making it impossible for the company to deliver the vehicle at a price it initially promised.

Further, the Lightning’s cells were until this year provided by a plant wholly owned by its battery partner SK On. That meant Ford missed out on generous Biden-era federal manufacturing credits for battery producers, which would have mitigated its losses.

The economics of the Lightning “never stacked up”, said Tu Le at Sino Auto Insights.

“The only way the maths would have worked would have been if Ford had an unlimited supply of cheap un-tariffed batteries imported from China, but that was never going to happen.”

However, Narayan noted that despite its bruising experience of the past few years, Ford’s leadership had resisted pressure from some investors to ditch EVs altogether.

Ford’s joint venture with SK On will be scrapped, with an EV plant in Tennessee repurposed to produce petrol-powered pick-ups and a battery plant in Kentucky converted to produce batteries for energy storage. The next iteration of the F-150 Lightning will be an “extended range EV” hybrid.

“The F-150 Lightning is a groundbreaking product that demonstrated an EV pick-up can still be a great F-series,” said Doug Field, Ford’s chief EV, digital and design officer. “Our next-generation F-150 Lightning EREV will be every bit as revolutionary.”

It is also working on a new platform for smaller EVs and a partnership with Renault in Europe as it targets profitability for the Model e division by 2029.

John Bozzella, president of the Alliance for Automotive Innovation, a trade group representing the US auto industry, said that carmakers “need to invest and sell vehicles that customers want right now, while preparing for a future that will inevitably include more hybrids, EVs and super-efficient gas vehicles. That’s what’s happening.”

But UBS’s Bush said the risk was “not just lagging the Chinese, who can be kept out of the US market. The risk is lagging the Koreans, the Japanese, the Europeans and the American EV companies as well.”

FT : London St Pancras revamp aims to cut Eurostar waiting time to 15 minutes

London St Pancras revamp aims to cut Eurostar waiting time to 15 minutes
Planned £100mn overhaul of train station will seek to end ‘holding pen’ experience for passengers

Waiting times for Eurostar trains at London St Pancras could fall to as little as 15 minutes under a plan by the station owner to revamp the security and departure zones. 

London St Pancras Highspeed — the company that operates the station and train line that connects with the Channel Tunnel — plans to spend £80mn to £100mn on the project to emulate the “turn up and go” experience offered by London City airport. 

It wants to end the long queues and “holding pen” experience for passengers in an effort to encourage more people to travel by train to continental Europe. 

“The capacity issue is clear to everyone, it is busy at peak [times], the lounge is not big enough, and you have people sitting on the floor, which is unacceptable,” Robert Sinclair, chief executive of London St Pancras Highspeed, told the Financial Times. 

“At the moment, Eurostar asks customers to turn up 60 minutes before departure, sometimes an hour and a half. We both agree that the opportunity is to reduce that down to 15 minutes. We want it to be a ‘turn up and go’ service,” he added.

The centrepiece of the overhaul will involve turning the current queue lines sideways and extending them into the “empty arrivals hall”. 

That would allow for double the number of passenger security checks, helping the overall queue times to be shortened, in a similar approach used during security checks by some airports. 

“The speed of process is much faster in the airports than what we have in St Pancras, where we have short lanes that are highly congested,” said Sinclair, who previously ran London City airport. 

“We have taken a leaf out of London City where you can turn up and go through very quickly. A bad outcome at London City is 10 minutes. If we offer that same level of consistency, then people over time will begin to rely on it.” 

It would also allow passengers to board trains earlier, up to half an hour before departure instead of the current 10 to 15 minutes. 

“The whole idea is not to hold people in a pen in a departure lounge,” he said. “If people turn up earlier, they can have a coffee in one of our coffee shops in St Pancras, and then wait to go through.”

“If they get there with only 30 minutes to go, they can go straight through and sit on the train. The train and carriages are effectively a boarding gate. We don’t plan to fill that departure lounge with retail; what we want is more passengers.”

The next phase of the plan, which involves detailed drawings of queue systems, had been approved by London St Pancras Highspeed’s board and would take place next year, he said. The entire process should be completed before Virgin Trains begins its own Channel Tunnel service at the end of this decade. 

“We can complete this in four years. We will ensure we have capacity in place [before Virgin arrives],” he said. “We’re not building a new railway station here.” 

Virgin this year won access to the Temple Mills rail depot, which will allow it to service cross-channel trains and begin offering an international service from London. 

Eurostar has also outlined ambitions to extend its network, with routes to Cologne, Frankfurt and Geneva, and has an order for up to 50 trains. 

Sinclair said St Pancras had ample capacity for both operators to run, with the main congestion being the security and departure areas. 

Reducing queue times would help increase the appeal of rail travel to Europe, which he believed would win over environmentally conscious passengers who did not want to fly. 

Under the current system, Eurostar contracts and pays for border security checks as the station’s “principal international operator”. Once Virgin services begin operating, the company will have to pay Eurostar to access this. 

“Our working assumption [is Virgin will] want their own lounge and branding,” though St Pancras will operate a “common use area” like an airport where passengers are processed for any train, added Sinclair. 

>>> Weekly Market Update: Data and central bank moves keep markets in an ‘uncomf

Though equities remained near all-time highs, the wall of worry around the AI buildout theme continued to dampen sentiment in tech. By Wednesday Oracle shares had broken below $180 while Nvidia fell to 3-week lows, masking continued broadening away from tech heading into the final weeks of 2025. Bitcoin remained mostly heavy, unable to climb back above $90K. Initially crude prices dropped on lingering hopes of peace in the Ukraine before rebounding on signs the White House is considering military action against Venezuela. Brent dipped below $60/barrel for the first time since May. US Treasury yields remained range bound despite a cooler than expected inflation print and higher than forecast unemployment rate. For the week, the S&P edged up 0.1%, the DJIA lost 0.7%, and the Nasdaq rose 0.5%.
Key US economic readings that had been delayed due the government shutdown took center stage. The November US unemployment rate climbed to its highest level in more than four years at 4.6%. Wage growth was cooler than expected while October/November payrolls were short of expectations, largely on the back on declines in government jobs. November CPI data was unquestionably bullish, driven by the lowest core y/y print in nearly 4 years, but both economists and the bond market cautioned against reading too much into the report because of gaps in data collection during the long government shutdown. Separately, S&P PMI surveys pointed to slower growth amid stubborn inflation. Overall, the numbers didn’t change the narrative around the Fed likely standing pat in January. Friday, NY Fed President Williams leaned on that notion, indicating he thought both the CPI and unemployment rate were probably skewed by ~0.1% due to technical factors around the unusual circumstances. He underscored he wasn’t changing his outlook, reiterating the Fed remains well positioned to wait for additional data with no sense of urgency to act now. Conversely, Fed Governor Waller doubled down on his dovish outlook, making his case for the Chairman role ahead of a final White House interview. Press reports stated he is still in the mix ahead of Trump’s expected decision in early January, as some senior officials are said to have been questioning the front-runner Hassett’s suitability for the role.
Outside the US, the Pound and GILT yields both moved lower following a cooler than expected UK inflation print. The ECB left rates unchanged, as expected, and very well could be done with its current rate cutting cycle. The Bank of England cut by 25 bps, also expected, while expectations for 2026 cuts were ratcheted back slightly. Mexico, Chile, and Thailand central banks also cut rates. The Japanese Yen came under renewed pressure after the BOJ raised rates, as expected. Governor Ueda provided only limited clarity on the timing and pace of future rate hikes which markets appeared to interpret as a lack of strong commitment to aggressive tightening. The Yen hit a record low against the Euro and approached the lows of the year against the dollar despite an attempt by the Japanese Fin Min to verbally intervene.
AI continued to be a central focus of corporate news, but transports and consumer goods names also had important developments this week. Oracle shares sagged most of the week as ongoing worries about funding for its ambitious build out plans lingered. The company pushed back on a concerning report that funding for a $10B Michigan data center is in doubt. A blowout earnings report from Micron and speculation that OpenAI was in talks to raise a staggering $100B in its latest funding round perhaps helped turn the sentiment tide late in the week. Nike shares were hit after solid Q2 results were called into question over still decidedly weak China results and guidance for additional gross margin erosion next quarter. Among the transport names, Ford got a vote of confidence from investors after biting the bullet on the EV market and taking $19.5B in charges as it looks to shift focus to hybrid vehicles. FedEx reported strong results for Q2 and said the spinoff of FedEx Freight is on track for mid-2026. Cruise operator Carnival also reported strong quarterly numbers as it continues to see new record booking volumes, allowing management to reinstate its dividend which had been terminated during the pandemic. Also notable for the transportation sector, Maersk announced that for the first time in nearly two years one of its ships had transited the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea, a sign of some normalization in the region’s sea freight commerce.

MON 12-15
(CA) CANADA NOV CPI M/M: 0.1% V 0.1%E; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.3%E
(JP) Japan BOJ said to start selling ETF holdings by as early as Jan, 2026 - financial press
(US) DEC EMPIRE MANUFACTURING: -3.9 V 10.0E
(UR) Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) poll: 75% of Ukrainians (the same as in September) reject a plan that would, among other things, include the withdrawal of troops from Donbas, restrictions on the size of Ukraine’s army, and at the same time, would not contain specific security guarantees
Counterpoint Research: Sees 2026 global smartphone shipments -2.1% y/y (v +3.3% y/y) as a shortage of memory chips drives up costs and squeezes production
F Confirms to take $19.5B in EV-related charges; Raises FY25 EBIT guidance; Reinvests in trucks, hybrids, affordable EVs, battery storage

TUES 12-16
(DE) GERMANY DEC PRELIMINARY MANUFACTURING PMI: 47.7 V 48.7E (below all analyst estimates and lowest since Feb 2025) (42nd month of contraction)
(DE) GERMANY DEC ZEW CURRENT SITUATION SURVEY: -81.0 V -80.0E
(EU) Follow-up: EU set to propose softening emissions rules for new cars, scrapping an effective 2035 ban on combustion engines – press
(RU) RUSSIA DEP FOREIGN MIN RYABKOV: CERTAIN UKRAINE WAR RESOLUTION IS NEAR
(US) NOV UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.6% V 4.5%E (over 4-year high)
(US) OCT ADVANCE RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.0% V 0.1%E; RETAIL SALES (EX-AUTO) M/M: 0.4% V 0.2%E
(US) NOV AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS M/M: 0.1% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.6%E
(US) DEC PRELIMINARY S&P MANUFACTURING PMI: 51.8 V 52.1E (5th month of expansion but lowest since July); Manufacturing new orders fell for the first time in a year: Firms reported passing on the sharpest rise in costs for just over three years
(US) Fed's Goolsbee (hawkish dissenter, non-voter in 2026): Jobs market cooling at a "modest pace" - comments on CNN
AAPL Reportedly plans to expand iPhone lineup to seven models by fall of 2027; Up from the five currently in production - The Information
LEN Reports Q4 $2.03 ex-items v $2.23e, Rev $9.37B v $9.13Be; Margins under pressure due to 14% in incentives and price adjustments
ORCL Oracle 5-year CDS spread tested 151bps (now highest since 2009)
PFE Guides initial FY26 $2.80-3.00 v $3.08e, Rev $59.5-62.5B v $61.8Be; Cuts mid-point FY25 Rev $62.0B v $63.0Be (prior $61-64B); Affirms FY25 $3.00-3.15 v $3.13e

WEDS 12-17
(CN) Chinese researchers reportedly completed a working EUV prototype in early 2025; Targeting 2028 for working chips – sources
(DE) GERMANY DEC IFO BUSINESS CLIMATE: 87.6 V 88.2E
(JP) Japan govt panelist economist Toshihiro Nagahama: BOJ monetary policy appears to be influenced heavily by FX moves
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q3 GDP Q/Q: 1.1% V 0.9%E; ; Y/Y: 1.3% V 1.3%E
(UK) NOV CPI M/M: -0.2% V 0.0%E; Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.5%E (lowest annual pace since March and 1st negative M/M print since Jan)
(US) Fed's Waller (voter): Rates still 50-100bps above neutral; Prevailing view has come around to my view that labor market is very soft; Close to zero job growth
GOOGL Said to be working with Meta to expand support for AI chips; TorchTPU project aims to increase TPU compatibility on AI program-building tool Pytorch as an alternative to Nvidia – press
HUT.CA Signs $7B 15-Year, 245 MW AI Data Center Lease at River Bend Campus with Total Contract Value of $7.0B
NUE Guides Q4 $1.65-1.75 v $2.07e; Notes results driven by seasonal effects and fewer shipping days
OPENAI.IPO *Follow Up: Said to be in talks to raise funds at valuation of $750B; could raise up to $100B in the latest round - The Information
ORCL Oracle’s $10B Michigan data center in limbo after Blue Owl funding talks stall - FT (update)
WBD Confirms Board of Directors Unanimously Recommends Shareholders Reject Paramount Tender Offer; Determined that PSKY's tender offer remains inferior to the Netflix merger; Sees No Material Difference in Regulatory Risk Between PSKY Offer and Netflix Merger; Files 14D9 filing

THRS 12-18
(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) RAISES POLICY RATE BY 25BPS TO 0.75%; AS EXPECTED
(JP) BOJ GOV UEDA: DELAYING RATE HIKE COULD FORCE A SIGNIFICANT HIKE LATER; CAN'T DENY RISK OF GOING ABOVE NEUTRAL RATE
(DE) Germany Debt Agency (DFA) on 2026 issuance: Plans to raise record €512B in debt: with €318B from capital markets and €176B in money markets (analysts estimated would 'likely exceed €500B')
(EU) ECB Chief Lagarde: Economic activity has been resilient - Prepared Remarks
(FR) French Pres Macron: EU-Mercosur deal can't be signed; Will find technical solution to back Ukraine funding
(UR) Ukraine Pres Zelenskiy: Not ready to withdraw troops from Donbas; Ukraine team will be in US on Dec 19-20th
(UK) BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE) CUTS BANK RATE BY 25BPS TO 3.75%; AS EXPECTED
(UK) BOE DEC MINUTES: VOTED 5-4 ON TODAY'S DECISION TO CUT RATES (Bailey, Breeden, Dhingra, Ramsden and Taylor voted for cut)
(US) DEC PHILADELPHIA FED BUSINESS OUTLOOK: -10.2 V 2.3E
(US) INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: 224K V 225KE; CONTINUING CLAIMS: 1.897M V 1.92ME
(US) NOV CPI Y/Y: 2.7% V 3.1%E (slowest pace since July)
(US) PJM Interconnection reported fresh record-high capacityprices of $333.44/MW-day in its auction on Dec 17th; PJM noted that without the collar, clearing prices would have been $529.80/MW-day for the RTO and $542.83/MW-day for DOM, yet even at those levels, the reserve margin would only hit 15.4% - press (update)
ACN Reports Q1 $3.94 v $3.74e, Rev $18.7B v $18.6Be
FDX Reports Q2 $4.82 v $4.07e, Rev $23.5B v $22.9Be; Narrow FY guidance toward high end
KMX Reports Q3 $0.43 v $0.32e, Rev $5.79B v $5.73Be
LLY Orforglipron helped people maintain weight loss after switching from injectable incretins to oral GLP-1 therapy in first-of-its-kind Phase 3 trial; Achieved primary and all key secondary endpoints for weight maintenance vs. placebo at 52 weeks following weight loss on Wegovy or Zepbound
NKE Reports Q2 $0.53 v $0.37e, Rev $12.4B v $12.1Be; China sales remain weak
NKE Guides Q3 Rev 'down low single digits', gross margin -175 to -225 bps; Notes gross margin would be expanding ex-tariff effects - earnings call
ORCL TikTok signs agreements to sell US TikTok to JV controlled by American investors; Oracle, Silver Lake and Abu Dhabi's MGX will collectively own 45% of TikTok's US entity

FRI 12-19
(US) Pres Trump: I do not rule out war with Venezuela - NBC News
(US) White House President Trump: Tariff threat forced drug companies to reach a deal on pricing
(US) Trump: I'm going to call a meeting of insurance companies in Florida or DC; Insurance companies have gotten rich and need to get their prices down
(US) USTR Greer: Tariff plan is in good shape; If countries do not comply with deals, maybe we will talk more
(US) Fed's Waller (voter) reportedly had a 'strong interview' for Fed chair with Trump; The positive description of the Waller interview by officials was not necessarily an indication that he was a favorite candidate for the job – CNBC
(US) Fed's Williams (voter): Nov CPI was a bit encouraging; Dec CPI reading will be a better signal; Recent data has NOT changed by outlook; Don't have sense of urgency to act further now
(US) DEC FINAL UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN CONFIDENCE: 52.9 V 53.5E; 1-year inflation expectations 4.2% v 4.1% prelim
(US) NOV EXISTING HOME SALES: 4.13M V 4.15ME (highest in 9 months)
(EU) EURO ZONE DEC ADVANCE CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -14.6 V -14.0E
MAERSKB.DK *Statement: This morning a Maersk vessel completed a transit through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait and into the Red Sea (first time in nearly two years)
CCL Reports Q4 $0.34 v $0.25e, Rev $6.33B v $6.36Be; Last three months achieved record booking volumes for 2026 and 2027 sailings; Reinstates quarterly dividend at $0.15 (indicated yield 2.1%)
LW Reports Q2 $0.69 v $0.67e, Rev $1.62B v $1.59Be; Price/mix -8%; Raised dividend 3%

WSJ : U.S. Pitches ‘Project Sunrise’ Plan to Turn Gaza Into High-Tech Metropolis

U.S. Pitches ‘Project Sunrise’ Plan to Turn Gaza Into High-Tech Metropolis
The blueprint drafted by Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff could have the U.S. commit to roughly 20% of some reconstruction costs over 10 years


WASHINGTON—Beachside luxury resorts. High-speed rail. AI-optimized smart grids.

Welcome to “Project Sunrise,” the Trump administration’s pitch to foreign governments and investors to turn Gaza’s rubble into a futuristic coastal destination.

A team led by President Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner and Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, two top White House aides, developed a draft proposal to convert the bombed-out enclave into a gleaming metropolis. In 32 pages of PowerPoint slides, replete with images of coastal high-rises alongside charts and cost tables, the plan outlines steps to take Gaza residents from tents to penthouses and from poverty to prosperity.

The presentation is labeled “sensitive but unclassified,” and doesn’t go into details about which countries or companies would fund Gaza’s rebuilding. Nor does it specify where precisely the 2 million displaced Palestinians would live during reconstruction. The U.S. has shown the slides to prospective donor countries, U.S. officials said, including wealthy Gulf kingdoms, Turkey and Egypt.

Some U.S. officials who have reviewed the plan have serious doubts about how realistic it is. They are skeptical that Hamas will agree to disarm in the first place for the plan to take effect—and even then that the U.S. could convince wealthy nations to foot the bill for transforming a dangerous postwar environment into a high-tech cityscape.


Others believe it offers the most detailed and optimistic vision yet of what Gaza could look like if Hamas laid down its arms and turned the page on decades of conflict.

“They can make all the slides they want,” said Steven Cook, a senior fellow for the Middle East at the Council on Foreign Relations think tank who just traveled to Israel but didn’t see the draft. “No one in Israel thinks they will move beyond the current situation and everyone is okay with that.”

“Nothing happens until Hamas disarms. Hamas will not disarm, so nothing will happen,” he said.

Asked for comment, a White House spokesperson said Trump continues to monitor Gaza and the peace plan. “The Trump administration will continue to work diligently with our partners to sustain a lasting peace and lay the groundwork for a peaceful and prosperous Gaza.”

The project, according to the draft, would cost a total of $112.1 billion over 10 years, though the U.S. would commit to being an “anchor” supporting nearly $60 billion in grants and guarantees on debt for “all the contemplated workstreams” in that time period. Gaza could then self-fund many projects over the following years of the plan, the proposal projects, and eventually pay down its debt as improvements fuel local industry and the broader economy.

Kushner, Witkoff, senior White House aide Josh Gruenbaum and other U.S. officials pulled the proposal together over the past 45 days, officials said, adding they received input from Israeli officials, people in the private sector and contractors. If the project gets under way, they plan to update and revise the numbers about every two years as it unfolds, officials said.

Supporters of the project insist that allowing Gaza to go undeveloped and let a burgeoning humanitarian crisis fester is a far worse alternative, adding it is better to realize Trump’s vision of turning Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East.”

The hurdles for developing the area are tremendous. After thousands of Israeli strikes on Gaza during the two year Israel-Hamas war, some 10,000 bodies lay under 68 million tons of rubble, officials estimate. The ground is toxic and littered with unexploded bombs. Hamas fighters remain entrenched.

The proposal acknowledges on the second page, bold and in red, that Gaza’s reconstruction depends on Hamas “to demilitarize and decommission all weapons and tunnels.”


If the security conditions allow, Trump officials said they could put the plan into action in as soon as two months.

“You are not going to convince anyone to invest money in Gaza if they believe another war is going to happen in two, three years,” Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Friday about the general situation in the enclave.

“We have a lot of confidence that we are going to have the donors for the reconstruction effort and for all the humanitarian support in the long term,” Rubio said.

Kushner, Witkoff and Gruenbaum met with officials from Egypt, Turkey and Qatar in Miami on Friday to discuss developments in Gaza, officials said.

A 20-plus-year road map shows the effort starting with the removal of destroyed buildings, unexploded ordnance and Hamas’s tunnels while residents are provided with temporary shelter, field hospitals and mobile clinics. Once cleared, the construction of permanent housing, medical facilities, schools and religious spaces would begin. Roads would get paved, power lines connected, crops planted. Only after that would the longer-term goals of lavish beachfront properties and modern transportation hubs be realized.

The rebuild would proceed in four phases, starting in the south with Rafah and Khan Younis before moving northward to “center camps” and, finally, the capital Gaza City.


One slide, titled “New Rafah,” sees it serving as Gaza’s “seat of governance” and home to more than 500,000 residents. They would live in a city with more than 100,000 housing units, 200 or more schools, and more than 75 medical facilities and 180 mosques and cultural centers.

The plan estimates the entire effort would cost $112.1 billion, including the public-sector payroll, over those 10 years, with much of it at the start going to humanitarian needs. Just under $60 billion would be financed by grants ($41.9 billion) and new debt ($15.2 billion) in that time period, with the U.S. offering to “anchor” 20% or more of the support. The World Bank would also play a financing role.


Costs are projected to taper off as Gaza makes money heading into the plan’s second decade. The proposal calls for monetizing 70% of Gaza’s coastline beginning in year 10, and estimates the glitzy riviera could lead to over $55 billion in long-run investment returns.

Before entering politics, Kushner built a career in commercial real estate, helping run his family’s property empire. Though he helped broker the Abraham Accords between Israel and Arab countries in Trump’s first term, nothing matches the scale or complexity of the undertaking taking shape in Gaza.

Since leaving the White House in 2021, Kushner has repositioned himself as an investor in a wide range of businesses. He founded Affinity Partners, a Miami-based private-equity firm that has raised more than $3.5 billion, much of it from Middle Eastern sovereign-wealth funds.

Affinity has taken stakes in sectors such as technology, infrastructure, energy and asset management, including investments in companies like an Israeli insurance and asset-management firm, and U.S. and Middle Eastern tech ventures.

Kushner also has been involved in other real-estate projects since leaving the White House. He has pursued a high-profile luxury resort development on Sazan Island in Albania, aiming to transform it into a flagship Mediterranean destination.

In the Middle East, breaking ground on Project Sunrise would only come toward the end of a long and fragile peace process between Israel and Hamas.

A three-phase plan is still in “Phase 1,” as Hamas has yet to hand over its last hostage—the body of Ran Gvili. If that happens, Israeli forces can begin their withdrawal from Gaza in “Phase 2” as Hamas lays down its arms, vowing never to seek power in the enclave again. Only then, with Gaza no longer home to Hamas militants or occupied by Israeli forces, could the multi-year rebuild begin in “Phase 3.”

The U.S. has considered other similar proposals for Gaza, including one called the Gaza Reconstitution, Economic Acceleration and Transformation Trust—or The GREAT Trust. Under this proposal, the enclave would turn into a high-tech, AI-fueled megacity the U.S. would initially help administer while Palestinians could voluntarily relocate.

But that plan, which the Washington Post reported in September, was devised by Israelis supportive of a controversial aid-distribution plan for Gaza while financial planning was done by a team at Boston Consulting Group. It was created before the October cease-fire between Israel and Hamas.

U.S. officials say “Project Sunrise” shows the administration is now directly engaged in nation building in Gaza, even if senior Trump aides reject that characterization.

“If you say something enough people will believe it so if they say they aren’t nation-building, they hope people will believe it,” said Cook, the CFR senior fellow. “But they are nation-building.”