FT : Tesla/Hertz: supercharged

Tesla/Hertz: supercharged
How to regain relevance as a meme stock.

Hertz Global Holdings Inc., barely four months out of bankruptcy, placed an order for 100,000 Teslas in the first step of an ambitious plan to electrify its rental-car fleet, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

It’s the single-largest purchase ever for electric vehicles and represents about $4.2 billion of revenue for Tesla Inc., according to the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private. While car-rental companies typically demand big discounts from automakers, the size of the order implies that Hertz is paying close to list prices. 

Great scoop! Now, you might be wondering what the market has made of it. After all, the reborn Hertz has a market capitalisation of almost $12bn, or $21bn if you include debt, so this one order represents a third of its entire equity value. Or, double the $1.8bn it had in cash and cash equivalents at last count at the end of June.

Quite an undertaking then, particularly given Tesla has a reputation for making cars that consumers love, until they have to get them serviced. Don’t take our word for it. Consumer intelligence company JD Power ranked Tesla 30th out of 33 automakers on reliability in its benchmark study of American car brands. While in 2019 a Swedish car rental company went bust citing “recurring technical problems” with its fleet of Teslas. Still, a $4.2bn order will likely buy Hertz lot of spare service capacity from Elon Musk’s car company. Or so you’d think.

What’s the stonk of all stonks doing? Well, true-to-form, in pre-market Tesla is hitting all new time highs -- up 4.3 per cent to $948.50. That’s a market cap of some $940bn. In other words, each car Hertz ordered has added $390,000, roughly ten times the per car ticket price, to Tesla’s market value. And, in case you were wondering, that $39bn pre-market move is roughly equivalent to half a General Motors.

Still, it was only a matter of time wasn’t it? After AMC decided to supercharge its own meme stock status with its decision to embrace crypto as a payments system. Hertz, once the meme stock de jour, needed to do something to regain relevance. And, as it turns out, that something involved both Tesla and Tom Brady.

WSJ : Volvo IPO Prices Lower Than Expected Despite Ambitious EV Plans

Volvo IPO Prices Lower Than Expected Despite Ambitious EV Plans
Pricing shows old auto is no match for valuations enjoyed by Tesla and other pure electric-vehicle players

Volvo Cars, the Swedish auto maker owned by China’s Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, on Monday set the price for its initial public offering at the low end of its target range, highlighting investors’ unwillingness to lend traditional car makers the valuations enjoyed by younger electric-vehicle companies.

Volvo said it has set the price of its shares at 53 Swedish kronor each, equivalent to $6.18, the bottom of its target range of up to 68 kronor. The offering values Volvo at just over $18 billion, shy of the $23 billion valuation that the company had hoped to achieve and the $25 billion that analysts had floated as possible.

Shares are set to begin trading on the Nasdaq Stockholm exchange on Friday, Oct. 29, the company said.

The lower pricing will reduce the anticipated proceeds from the IPO. It illustrates how even conventional auto companies with ambitious electrification plans continue to struggle to achieve the stellar valuations that have been readily handed to Tesla Inc., which boasts a market value of $900 billion, and new electric car makers such as Li Auto Inc., NIO Inc. and Xpeng Inc.

Li Auto’s American depositary receipts value the Chinese auto maker at around $33 billion, although it is a fraction of the size of Volvo. NIO’s ADRs give the company a market value of nearly $64 billion, and Xpeng touts a market value of nearly $37 billion.

Volvo ran into opposition from investors who balked at such valuations for a conventional car maker, according to people familiar with these conversations. Potential new investors refused to value Volvo’s business using the same math as used for new EV makers, saying Volvo’s transformation strategy was bold but still unproven.

Instead, they indicated to Volvo that they were willing to value the company based on the lower multiples that traditional auto makers attract, one person familiar with the discussions said.

Investors also valued Volvo’s near 50% stake in electric vehicle maker Polestar at a discount of its almost $10 billion valuation because Volvo has no plans to realize that value in the near term by selling down its holding, the person said.

In an interview with The Wall Street Journal on Monday, Volvo CEO Hakan Samuelsson denied that the lower pricing suggested the company had run into difficulties selling the offering to investors, saying that the share price leaves room for new investors to profit on their investment.

“It’s important to leave a possibility for the new shareholders to have a good value development and really take part in the value creation,” Mr. Samuelsson said.

While the company will raise less money than hoped, Mr. Samuelsson said the proceeds would still be sufficient to secure financing for Volvo’s transition to a fully electric auto maker over the next few years.

Proceeds from the fully subscribed IPO will be equivalent to about $2.7 billion when the so-called greenshoe, or secondary offering, is exercised as planned, Volvo CFO Björn Annwall told the Journal. Initially, Volvo had hoped to raise 25 billion kronor through the primary offering alone, or about $2.9 billion.

“The important thing is securing our transformation,” he said.

Investors, especially those in the Nordic region, also pushed Volvo to end its two classes of shares in favor of just one Class B voting share that would give all investors equal rights. Under the old proposal, Geely would have still held around 97% of the voting rights, although its share ownership would have fallen to as low as about 80%, one person familiar with the discussions said.

Earlier this month, Geely agreed to scrap the nonvoting Class A shares and convert all of its shares to Class B voting stock in the wake of the Volvo IPO.

China’s Geely bought Volvo for $1.8 billion in 2010, when it was struggling under the ownership of Ford Motor Co. Volvo’s pricing values Geely’s post-IPO stake of 82% at around $15 billion, a huge gain that highlights the rags-to-riches transformation of the Swedish car marker under Geely’s ownership, one of the auto industry’s biggest turnaround stories.

Additional core shareholders include Swedish institutional investors Folksam and AMF, bringing the total share of Volvo’s future anchor shareholders to 86.3%. The remaining 13.7% of Volvo’s Class B voting stock, its only share class, will float freely.

Volvo extended the subscription phase of the offering by one day.

FT : Israel breaks out of its global isolation

Israel breaks out of its global isolation
A technology boom and geopolitical change are helping the Jewish state to expand its horizons

For decades it has suited both Israel and its enemies to portray the Jewish state as endangered and embattled. Israel’s bitterest foes have predicted that the “Zionist entity” will be swept away. Its liberal critics have insisted that Israel will never be secure until it makes peace with the Palestinians. The Israelis, meanwhile, have argued that external threats justify their continued occupation of Palestinian land and frequent recourse to military force.

Visit Israel, as I did last week, and you still hear regular dark warnings about Iran and terrorism. But what is far more striking is the mood of buoyant optimism among the country’s political and business leaders.

Israel has enjoyed more than a decade of rising prosperity and relative peace. Its per capita income is now higher than that of Britain. The country’s booming tech industry boasts more than 70 unicorns (tech start-up companies valued at $1bn or more), which is about 10 per cent of the global total. Venture capital is pouring into the country. Israel is also a world leader in the fight against Covid-19, vaccinating its population faster than any other country.

After two years of political crisis, Israel has a new coalition government, which stretches across the right-left spectrum and includes, for the first time, an Arab-Israeli party. Benjamin Netanyahu, who has dominated and polarised Israeli politics for many years, is now out of power and on trial.

Most intoxicatingly of all, Israelis feel that they are breaking out of the international isolation that has long threatened the country with pariah status. The immediate cause for this is the Abraham Accords, which have normalised Israel’s relations with the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain and, more tepidly, Morocco and Sudan.

Issawi Frej, Israel’s minister for regional co-operation, enthuses that the accords offer the country huge opportunities for economic growth. Frej, who is an Arab-Israeli, recently attended a meeting in Abu Dhabi with the Abraham accord countries, Egypt and Jordan. He predicts that more countries in the region will join the accords soon.

Despite the pandemic, it feels like every prominent Israeli has recently visited the UAE. They come back enthusing about the novelty of flying over Saudi airspace and the warmth of their reception in Dubai. “There’s even a kosher restaurant in the Burj Khalifa [the world’s tallest building],” marvels one Israeli venture capitalist.

There are also more tangible pay-offs. Many Israeli companies are doing deals in the UAE. Israel Aerospace Industries, a leading tech exporter closely linked to the military, has established a facility in Abu Dhabi. Like other Israeli companies, it sees the Gulf as a jumping off point for new global markets.

The diplomatic fruits of the Abraham accords are also evident. Last week, Yair Lapid, Israel’s foreign minister, took part in a quadrilateral meeting with Tony Blinken, US secretary of state, and the foreign ministers of India and the UAE. The “new quad” will establish a forum for economic co-operation.

One senior western diplomat in Israel says that 15 years ago diplomacy with Israel was “80 per cent Palestine, 20 per cent other things. Now it is 20 per cent Palestine, 80 per cent other things.” Israel’s technological prowess is key to changing its relationship with the outside world. As the diplomat puts it: “The world wants what Israel is selling.”

Shifts in geopolitics are also working to Israel’s benefit. For a previous generation of western leaders, such as Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, solving the Israeli-Palestinian conflict was the holy grail of international politics. For the current generation, other issues are more pressing. In Washington, the growing rivalry between the US and China is the defining issue. The governments of China, India and Russia see Israel primarily as a tech partner and a geopolitical actor. In the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf States are more worried by the threat from Iran than the fate of the Palestinians. The shared fear of Iran, in Israel and the Gulf, underpinned the Abraham Accords.

It would be nice to report that the surge in international acceptance of Israel also reflects significantly improved treatment of the Palestinians. But, on the contrary, Human Rights Watch issued a report this year arguing that Israel’s treatment of the Palestinians now meets the legal definition of “apartheid” — a charge the Israelis reject. HRW states that the “Israeli authorities methodically privilege Jewish Israelis and discriminate against Palestinians”.

An outbreak of fighting with Hamas in May saw at least 260 Palestinians killed by Israeli strikes on Gaza; with 13 people killed in Israel, mainly by Hamas rockets. But international condemnation of Israel subsided quickly. The Abraham Accords were not derailed and neither was the decision of Ra’am, an Arab-Israeli party, to participate in the new coalition government.

The implications for the Palestinians are bleak. Their cause remains high on the agenda of the left in the West. But with weakening support in the Arab world, the Palestinian ability to put pressure on Israel is weakening.

The pessimistic view is that an increasingly confident Israel will now feel free to press ahead with further colonisation of the West Bank. But there is an alternative path. Support for the peace process in Israel collapsed after the terror attacks of the second intifada from 2000-2005. A more secure and optimistic Israel could also be a more generous country.

FT : Just Eat Takeaway rebuffs call to sell Grubhub

Just Eat Takeaway rebuffs call to sell Grubhub
Activist investor Cat Rock suggests Amazon, Instacart and Walmart would be interested in US food delivery group

Just Eat Takeaway.com has insisted it has a “clear improvement plan” for Grubhub after coming under renewed pressure from an activist investor to sell or spin off the US food delivery business by the end of 2021.

Just Eat Takeaway.com completed its $7.3bn acquisition of Grubhub only four months ago but its share price has fallen more than 32 per cent this year, prompting investors to call for it to sell off assets or risk a hostile takeover.

Cat Rock, a Connecticut-based activist investor, has built a 6 per cent stake in Just Eat Takeaway.com and said on Monday that the board had so far “failed to fix the deep and damaging undervaluation of its equity by taking tangible action to unlock the value of its portfolio”.

It added that Just Eat Takeaway.com had been distracted by Grubhub and the acquisition had reduced the group’s financial flexibility.

Alex Captain, the founder of Cat Rock, said that the group’s recent capital markets day “only highlighted the magnitude of the problem” and that the company trades at less than eight times its projected earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortisation for 2022.

Cat Rock, which invested in Takeaway.com as early as 2017, suggested that selling Grubhub to Amazon Whole Foods to improve competition in the US food delivery market. It added that Instacart or Walmart could also use Grubhub to compete against DoorDash and Uber Eats.

Another large investor, Oceanwood Capital Management, has previously made similar calls for divestments.

Just Eat Takeaway.com said that “while Grubhub has some specific challenges today, it is a large and growing business with good underlying profitability”. It added that it had a “clear improvement plan to refocus Grubhub” and remained “excited by Grubhub’s potential”.

However, it added that the business had “significant strategic value” and that it would take part in the wider consolidation of the US market.

“The management team expects to be involved in this consolidation when it comes and intends to do so from a position of strength that reflects the strategic value of Grubhub,” it said.

Just Eat Takeaway.com’s share price has fallen 4.5 per cent since its capital markets day on Thursday.

>>> US Gapping down

Gapping down
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • HNI -2.7%, LII -2.4%, KMB -2.3%, CBU -2%

Other news:

  • ERYP -28.8% (reports TRYbeCA-1 Phase 3 Trial of Eryaspase did not meet its primary endpoint of overall survival)
  • PINS -14.3% (In response to market rumors regarding a potential acquisition of Pinterest by PayPal (PYPL), PayPal stated that it is not pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest at this time)
  • FGEN -7.5% (announces analyses from Roxadustat Global Phase 3 Program at American Society of Nephrology Kidney Week 2021)
  • TPTX -2.1% (Presents Early Clinical Data for Repotrectinib)
  • SBSW -2.1% (discloses entry into negotiations with affiliates of funds advised by Appian Capital Advisory LLP, regarding the acquisition of both the Santa Rita nickel and the Serrote copper mines, located in Brazil)
  • ONDS -1.9% (files for 8,315,630 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • NVS -1.7% (reports top-line results for CANOPY-1 Phase III study did not meet its primary endpoints of overall survival)

Analyst comments:

  • BV -2.3% (downgraded to Underweight from Neutral at JP Morgan)
  • CCL -1.2% (downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Citigroup)

>>> US Gapping up

Gapping up
In reaction to earnings/guidance
:

  • MX +5.4%, OTIS +1.6%, QSR +1.2%, HSBC +0.6%

Select metals/mining stocks trading higher:

  • GDX +1.2%, GOLD +1%, NEM +0.9%, RIO +0.7%, FCX +0.6%, . 

Select oil/gas related names showing strength:

  • HAL +0.9%, XLE +0.7%, SLB +0.7%, BP +0.7%, USO +0.6%, XOM +0.6%, OIH +0.5%, RDS.A +0.5%, . 

Other news:

  • PAE +67.8% (enters into agreement to be acquired by Amentum for $1.9 bln)
  • PHUN +22.3% (continued volatility)
  • BRPM +18.8% (FaZe Clan to become a publicly listed company through merger with B. Riley Principal 150 Merger Corp)
  • PYPL +5.6% (In response to market rumors regarding a potential acquisition of Pinterest by PayPal (PYPL), PayPal stated that it is not pursuing an acquisition of Pinterest at this time)
  • APEN +5.4% (MERIT-Trial meets its primary endpoints for safety and efficacy)
  • DWAC +5.2% (continued volatility)
  • AUPH +4.8% (report that Bristol-Myers Squibb has expressed interest in acquiring
  • AUPH, according to Bloomberg)
  • LEV +4.5% (received a conditional purchase order for 1,000 all-electric LionC school buses from Student Transportation of Canada)
  • ALKS +3.4% (FDA grants Fast Track designation to nemvaleukin alfa (nemvaleukin) for the treatment of platinum-resistant ovarian cancer)
  • HUT +3.1% (provides third site status update)
  • BHIL +2.8% (files for 89,628,274 share common stock offering by selling shareholders)
  • TCRR +1.9% (announces clinical trial collaboration agreement with Bristol Myers Squibb (BMY) to evaluate gavo-cel in combination with Opdivo and Yervoy)
  • MTDR +1.3% (revises dividend policy; doubles quarterly dividend)
  • OWLT +1.3% (suspends certain Smart Sock shipments as it relates to recent FDA Warning Letter)
  • DRIO +1.1% (files for $200 mln common stock offering; contract with a U.S. National Employer to provide its full multi-condition suite digital therapeutic solutions)
  • CWEN +1% (announces sale of its thermal business to KKR)

Analyst comments:

  • FIVN +1.8% (upgraded to Overweight from Sector Weight at KeyBanc Capital Markets)
  • KNX +1.8% (upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS)

FT : The Squid and the Whale

The Squid and the Whale
Capital will be the next frontier of the US-China conflict

Some Swampians may know that this title was taken from the movie of the same name, in which two brothers endure the divorce of their Brooklyn parents in somewhat comic style (half of the movie involves looking for parking after dropping off the kids; the enormous fighting squid and whale that hang in New York’s Natural History Museum represent the parents). 

But I digress. The squid that I’m referring to here is Goldman Sachs, and the whale is China. Am I the only one amazed by the juxtaposition of China testing hypersonic weapons and Nato’s new mission to fend off the Middle Kingdom, with Goldman Sachs joining JPMorgan as the second independent bank to be allowed to operate freely in China without a local partner?

Well, freely may be an exaggeration. I’m quite sure that the Chinese Communist party makes it known what its desires and limits are, and that American financial institutions, like US tech giants, abide by them. But I find it rather incredible that even as decoupling is happening in the industrial and trade space, US financial institutions seem to be embedding more deeply in China.

The first question here is, why? For the US institutions, it’s clear. Desperate for fees, they are looking to do wealth management in what must be the most delicious greenfield market in the world. But for the Chinese, it seems to me more complicated. Sure, they have plenty of wealthy people who would like to be serviced by global blue-chip firms. And the country as a whole is still looking to improve its understanding and experience with the financial services market.

But China is also in the midst of a major debt crisis. I have actually been rather impressed by the country’s handling of Evergrande. Rather than waiting for a bubble to burst and bring the real economy down with it, as the US government did during the great financial crisis, Beijing is trying to deflate things in advance of that. The jury is out on whether it will work, but the effort is impressive.

Which brings me to the role of US financial institutions in China’s debt problems. Is the country hoping that US banks, but also entities like BlackRock (which told clients to triple down on China), are going to provide fresh cash to paper over the debt bubble, which has grown faster than any in history? And what might this mean for these firms’ Western investors, as well as the US government, which now views China as a major strategic adversary?

It’s hard for me to imagine that the US can have an entity list full of Chinese companies that can’t engage in cross-border trade, or have US investors, and yet it’s somehow OK for the country’s largest financial firms to move deeper into the orbit of Beijing (particularly as they claim to be focused on ESG). I’m already hearing rumblings about this in both conservative and progressive policy circles. (As per usual, it’s the neoliberal middle on both sides of the aisle that doesn’t think it’s a problem). 

For my money, I think it is a problem. I expect that capital will be the next frontier of the US-China conflict. China has made it very clear that it wants to move away from a dollar system. It wants to encourage the adoption of the renminbi and weaken the ability of the US to use its own currency as the single global reserve, which of course gives America incredibly outsized power — we can run higher debts than usual, sanction countries that need to do business in the dollar-based capital markets (on that note, see the Treasury’s report on how virtual coin could weaken that power), and so on.

I can’t imagine how, in this context, we aren’t going to see more limits on the ability of US financial institutions to engage in China — or at least much more scrutiny of whether they are breaking any existing entity list rules in doing so.

Readers, I’d love to hear how you all think this will play out.

>>> US Early premarket gappers

Early premarket gappers

  • Gapping up:
    • BRPM +17.8%, PYPL +6.8%, APEN +4.3%, PHUN +3.3%, BHIL +2.8%, HUT +2.8%, AUPH +1.8%, GDX +1%, GOLD +0.9%, TELL +0.8%, FCX +0.8%, NEM +0.8%, XLE +0.8%, SLB +0.8%, HSBC +0.8%, DWAC +0.7%, RIO +0.6%, BP +0.6%, AZN +0.6%, XOM +0.5%, MTDR +0.5%
  • Gapping down:
    • ERYP -33%, PINS -11.6%, DRIO -5.4%, TPTX -2.1%, ONDS -1.9%, NVS -1.4%, HON -0.8%

FT : Drilling shutdown would mean end of green transition, Norway PM warns

Drilling shutdown would mean end of green transition, Norway PM warns
Labour leader Jonas Gahr Store tells FT that country’s $1.4tn oil fund is ‘political’

Norway’s new prime minister has defended his country’s oil and gas industry by emphasising its shutdown would scupper the transition to greener industries such as renewable energy.

In his first newspaper interview as prime minister, Jonas Gahr Store told the Financial Times that if Norway, the biggest provider of gas to Europe behind Russia, were “out of business shortly” then the continent would struggle to reach its green goals too.

“If we were to say from one day to the other that we close down production from the Norwegian shelf, I believe that would put a stop to an industrial transition that is needed to succeed in the momentum towards net zero . . . So we are about to develop and transit, not close down,” he added.

The return to power of Store’s Labour party in Norway means all five Nordic countries have left-leaning prime ministers for the first time since 1959 and caps a centre-left revival that includes the victory of Social Democrat Olaf Scholz in Germany.

Store said he had been and remained in close contact with Scholz, who is discussing the terms of a coalition with Green and liberal parties, and emphasised their similarities as part of the “recovery in social democracy”.

“One reason is that people are seeing this growing inequality, they are seeing the insufficiency of right-leaning governments in managing the social part of the political agenda but also the technological and modern part of the energy transition,” Store said. “The other part is that social democracy has needed to find back its roots of representing the interests of people doing decent work.”

Norway is western Europe’s largest petroleum producer but it is also ploughing significant money into green technologies such as electric cars, carbon capture and storage, and offshore wind.

Store agreed that this represented “a paradox” but argued it was not a Norwegian one but a global one as the world left behind “a couple of centuries of fossil fuel production”.

He stressed that Norway would meets its climate targets and obligations but claimed that the country of 5m people could make a bigger difference by developing green industry. “That will be important in Norway but it will have huge importance in Europe’s transition, in India’s transition, in Asia’s transition,” he added.

The new centre-left minority government is also keen to make its $1.4tn oil fund, the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund, more active in environmental matters. The government platform said it should become the leading asset manager in responsible investment as well as climate risk. The coalition also said it wanted more forceful regulation on the sale of shares in companies breaching human rights and International Labour Organization rules.

Store told the FT that the fund was “political”, a statement that marks a shift in a country where politicians have strived to say that it is not a tool of Norway’s foreign policy.

He stressed that it was run by professional managers, whose goal was to make “high returns within acceptable risk”.

But he added it was “the property of the Norwegian people, and it is up to the Norwegian government and parliament to set the framework. That makes it political, in my sense.”

The government was “clearly not picking winners or directing the details”, he said however.

Officials at the fund have long thought its biggest risk is being seen abroad as an arm of the Norwegian state. They have sought to counteract that by stressing that its responsible investment framework — which includes bans on producers of tobacco, nuclear weapons, and coal from the fund — is based on widely accepted international principles.

Store said that as the fund was owned by the Norwegian people and structured to “last for eternity”, “we would like to see the objectives and values of Norway reflected in the management of the fund”.

Store, a former foreign minister, showed a more internationalist inclination than his centre-right predecessor Erna Solberg, saying he would make an early trip to Brussels to discuss how Norway could help in the EU’s energy transition, and giving his first interviews to three European publications.

But he also criticised a European Commission suggestion to ban all oil and gas activity in the Arctic, which would affect Norway more than almost any other country due to activity in the Barents Sea.

“Resolutions coming out of continental Europe saying that everything north of the Polar Circle should arbitrarily be stopped — it doesn’t work like that. Norway is a coastal state from north to south, we have our rights and obligations to look after our economic zone and the activities in that zone,” he said.

But he added that his government would emphasise oil and gas exploration in “more mature areas and activities close to existing infrastructure”. This meant that the largely unexplored Barents Sea would be less in focus than the North and Norwegian Seas below the Arctic. Large oil companies, including state-controlled Equinor, have said they are scaling back their plans for the Barents Sea after a series of disappointing search results.