Research Calls
- Upgrades:
- Clean Harbors (CLH) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman; tgt raised to $120
- First Republic Bank (FRC) upgraded to Neutral from Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $187
- Downgrades:
- BRC Inc. (BRCC) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
- Carvana (CVNA) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital Mkts; tgt lowered to $138
- Citizens Financial Group (CFG) downgraded to Mkt Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette; tgt lowered to $54
- Others:
- Affirm (AFRM) initiated with a Neutral at MoffettNathanson; tgt $50
- Armstrong World Industries (AWI) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $120
- AZEK (AZEK) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $29
- Bill.com (BILL) initiated with an Overweight at Wells Fargo; tgt $284
- Carlisle Cos (CSL) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $275
- CBRE Group (CBRE) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $111
- ClearPoint Neuro (CLPT) resumed with a Buy at B. Riley Securities; tgt $15
- Cushman & Wakefield (CWK) initiated with a Buy at Goldman; tgt $25
- CyberArk (CYBR) initiated with an Overweight at KeyBanc Capital Markets; tgt $217
- D.R. Horton (DHI) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $89
- Fortune Brands Home & Security (FBHS) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $90
- Hayward Holdings (HAYW) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $21
- Installed Building Products (IBP) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $95
- JELD-WEN (JELD) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $24
- KB Home (KBH) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $42
- Lennar (LEN) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $88
- Masco (MAS) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $50
- Meritage (MTH) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $103
- Mohawk (MHK) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $140
- PulteGroup (PHM) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $52
- Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $165
- Taylor Morrison Home (TMHC) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $32
- Toll Brothers (TOL) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $63
- TopBuild (BLD) initiated with an Outperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $235
- Trex (TREX) initiated with an Underperform at Credit Suisse; tgt $65
- Whirlpool (WHR) initiated with a Neutral at Credit Suisse; tgt $180
Early premarket gappers
- Gapping up:
- RCUS +13.1%, ANY +11.5%, KSCP +5.8%, TBPH +5.3%, CSTL +4.4%, CARS +3.9%, CUK +3.8%, SUPN +3.6%, LEV +2.6%, SNPS +1.8%, MARA +1.6%, ARGX +1.5%, RHP +1.3%
- Gapping down:
- XPOF -8.3%, TRIN -4.6%, FLDM -1.3%, BIIB -1.2%, CHPT -0.5%
Retail, Freight And Now Semis All On The Verge Of Recession
One week ago, RH (the stock-buyback/short-squeeze mogul formerly known as Restoration Hardware) reported dismal earnings which sent its stock plunging, but it was the company's earnings call that shocked Wall Street: in a nutshell, the company disclosed that it had seen a sharp deceleration in customer activity over just the last several days, prompting CEO Gary Friedman to give an ominous assessment of the overall macro situation.
While first quarter sales and margin strand to remain healthy due to the ongoing relief of our backlog, we have experienced softening demand in the first quarter that coincided with Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February and the market volatility that followed. We believe it is prudent to remain conservative until demand trends return to normal and -- we are providing the following outlook for the first quarter of 2022.”
What was remarkable about Friedman's admission is that whereas until now, management commentary had mostly lamented soaring commodity prices and supply-chain weakness, which management had then successfully passed on to consumers, this was a direct admission of tangible weakness in consumer end-demand. What was more ominous is that, unlike the Biden admin, Friedman did not blame the soaring inflation and the sudden bout of economic weakness on Putin. In fact, as the following excerpt from his earnings call commentary revealed, the CEO saw broad-based weakness in virtually every aspect of the economy.
... It's probably one of the most difficult guides since 2008 and '09, because we -- we're right in the middle of this disruption from Ukraine and Russia, which I think -- I don't think it's all Ukraine and Russia. I think it's triggered a greater awareness. It's like someone rang the bell, and everybody paid attention, and then all of a sudden, everybody started talking. All of a sudden, the Fed's off to the races and that creates concern. You've got housing prices at all-time highs. I mean, is it sustainable? I don't know for how long; doesn't make sense on what's happening in the housing sector and other places. And you've got inflation like I've never seen.Now I was telling people, when Yellen said, we're going back to 2%, we were just signing our new freight contracts, ocean freight contracts. I just wonder if the Fed has picked up the phone and called a business person and said, hi, what do you think is happening with inflation? How is ocean rates? How is this? How is that?I mean I don't think anybody really understands what's coming from an inflation point of view, because either businesses are going to make a lot less money or they're going to raise their prices. And I don't think anybody really understands how high prices are going to go everywhere. In restaurants, in cars and everything. And I think it's going to outrun the consumer. And I think we're going to be in some tricky space. So everything is kind of happening at once. And I think you got to prepare for war. I mean if you're going into a very difficult, unpredictable time, you just got to be super flexible, you've got to be able to improvise, adapt, overcome and kind of be ready for anything.And I don't mean that by playing defense. I mean it's by playing offense, but it's -- I wouldn't call it happy days right now. I'd call it pensive days. Be ready. And when we play like that, we usually have our best outcome. When we get overly optimistic, we have a higher likelihood to wind up in the ditch and get ahead of ourselves. So -- but if everything, if the war in Ukraine ends and inflation slows down some miraculous way, I don't know, everybody can sign new freight contracts because, I mean, most of the world all signed new freight contracts. Two years ago, price of the container for us went from 2,400 to 4,800? I'm not going to tell you what it just went to. But just let's say that looked like a nice increase.So either people are going to do stupid things like take quality down to make their goods look like it's better value or they're going to have to take prices up and where they won't take prices up and they'll hurt -- their margin profile is going to change. But it's not just us, it's everybody I know in every industry. And I just don't think it's like -- again, I don't want to scare everybody. But I talk about them, like there's the scene in The Big Short, where everybody is in that ballroom and the guy from Bear Stearns or someone is up there, and he's saying how they are going to buy back $1 billion of their stock, and then one guy on his BlackBerry, goes, can I ask the question, sir? In the 20 minutes that you've been talking, your stock is down like 55%. And everybody ran out of the room.
The call, which took place after the close on Wednesday, sent RH stock crashing and unleashed a pall over the broader retail sector. However, the recession blues quickly spread just 48 hours later when Craig Fuller, the CEO of Freight Waves, a supply-chain logistics expert and hardly the hyperbolic type, warned that a "freight recession is imminent", commentary which sent the transports index plummeting on Friday and which continued to depress the space on Monday as well.
... I wish the answers were different. I would prefer to say the U.S. trucking market was robust and the expansion will continue throughout 2022. But I can’t. Since I wrote the piece about the bloodbath, FreightWaves SONAR’s tender data continues to reinforce the perspective of a declining freight market.Tender rejections are the best indicator into real-time supply/demand in the truckload sector. The data comes from actual electronic load requests – “tenders” in the truckload contract market.A high rejection rate means that trucking companies have more options to choose from. A low rejection rate means carriers have fewer options in freight to pick from. Since this measures actual load activity and not load board posts or searches, it tells us what the market is actually doing.And since it measures the willingness of carriers that are contracted to accept or to reject a load they have a contracted rate for, if the rejection rate declines, it suggests capacity is loosening.
And so, the yield curve inverts and we immediately get management chatter about recession hitting retail and freight (i.e., transports), two of the most critical sectors propping up the US economy. Well, we can now add the beating heart of the tech sector - semiconductors - to the list too.
Last week, the chairman of Taiwan Semiconductor said that consumer electronics demand is showing signs of slowing amid geopolitical uncertainties and COVID-related lockdowns in China, The slowdown is emerging in areas "such as smartphones, PCs, and TVs, especially in China, the biggest consumer market," TSMC Chairman Mark Liu said.
Liu also warned that the cost of components and materials are rising sharply, pushing up production costs for tech and chip companies.
"Such pressure could eventually be passed on to consumers," Liu said on the sidelines of an industry event where he was speaking in his capacity as chair of the Taiwan Semiconductor Industry Association.
When TSMC speaks, or worse warns, everyone pays attention: a key Apple supplier, TSMC is the world's biggest contract chipmaker and a barometer of global electronics demand. Taiwan's semiconductor industry is the world's second-largest chip economy by revenue, behind only the U.S.
"Everyone in the industry is worried about rising costs across the overall supply chain... The semiconductor industry already and directly experienced that cost increase," Liu said, adding that the industry is also concerned about macroeconomic uncertainties this year.
And yet, despite the dire warning of slowing end-demand, TSMC - like so many of its peers - refused to accept what the new reality means for its top line, and instead has chosen to assume that the chip fab giant can just keep passing on all the soaring costs to a consumer that has already been tapped out: Liu said that TSMC is not likely to change its growth target and capital expenditure this year.
"Despite the slowdown in some areas, we still see robust demand in automotive applications and high-performance computing as well as internet of things-related devices," he said. "We still cannot meet our customers' demand with our current capacity. We will reorganize and prioritize orders for those areas that still see healthy demand." At least until those areas fall into the pre-recessionary void too.
Why does all of this matter? Because with stocks still just shy of all time highs - following the recent torrid rally - we get retail, freight and semis all issuing very loud, and very troubling warnings that what is dead ahead is something, in the parlance of the RH CEO, straight our of The Big Short, a movie which we are confident he picked for obvious reasons. More importantly, it all happens within hours of the 2s10s yield curve inverting...
... which is also why Wall Street has spent so much in the past few days trying to convince anyone who still bothers to listen that a recession is not imminent... why would be lovely, if the companies themselves weren't telling us otherwise.
Introducing 'COVID XE': New Mutant Strain Found In UK As WHO Warns It's More Contagious Than Omicron
As China and Hong Kong continue to struggle with the worst COVID outbreak since Wuhan, the West has mentally moved on from COVID. That being said, COVID still isn't quite done with the West. Or at least that's what the 'experts' are saying.
As cases, hospitalizations, and even deaths have begun to creep higher once again in the US, Europe and the UK (for Americans, this trend has been made more visible by a flurry of headlines warning that senior Democrats have curiously tested positive, including Bill and Hillary Clinton) a new variant has recently been confirmed in the UK.
The new mutant, called XE, may be more transmissible than any strain of COVID so far, according to the WHO and local health authorities in the UK.
XE is a "recombinant" strain - that is, a mutation that combines features of the BA.1 and BA.2 omicron sub-strans. Recombinant mutations emerge when a patient is infected by multiple variants of COVID at the same time. The variants interbreed and combine their genetic material during replication, forming an entirely new mutated strain. A team of researchers from the UK said as much in a paper released this week.
The UK's health agency said that XE was first detected on Jan. 19. Since then, 637 cases of the new variant have been reported.
Authorities said 4.9 million people in the UK are believed to have contracted COVID in the week ending March 26 - that's 600,000 more than the previous week.
Despite the increasingly widespread use of home COVID tests, which make it increasingly difficult for authorities to track the true number o infections, global COVID cases on Sunday topped 490 million, according to the John Hopkins University data. Meanwhile, the world has confirmed over 6.15 million deaths attributed to the virus (although in many cases patients were counted as 'COVID deaths' even if they died from something unrelated - just because they tested positive for the virus).
Instead of rushing to label XE as a 'variant of concern' (which would entail bestowing the strain with its own Greek letter name), the WHO says the new strain will be counted as omicron until further notice.
In the US, states like New York and California have seen an increase in new cases, but the degree to which XE is contributing to this is unclear (if it's contributing at all). At least one case of the new strain has been confirmed in Thailand. But one Asian viral expert told Bloomberg that there's no need to panic about the new variant - at least not yet.
"We should monitor the new recombinants closely, but we should not panic at the moment," said Leo Poon, a virologist and University of Hong Kong professor who has tracked and written reports on the emergence of new strains.It’s not unexpected to see Covid recombinant variants, or a mix of two previous strains, particularly since the delta and omicron strains have been circulating widely, he said. It’s likely that some people would be infected by both strains. If a variant were to be detected in multiple regions and was spreading in the community, then that would be of concern, he said.
Finally, an epidemiological update published March 29 by the WHO estimated that XE could be as much as 10% more transmissible than BA.2. However, these findings require further confirmation.
In Australia, Central Bank Reveals More Hawkish Stance
RBA keeps interest rates at record-low level, but cautions on inflation
SYDNEY—The Reserve Bank of Australia kept its official cash rate at emergency settings, but nudged open the door to an interest-rate increase in the months ahead with a more hawkish outlook.
The country’s central bank on Tuesday said it would keep its benchmark rate at 0.10%, as economists had expected, but dropped remarks that it was prepared to be patient from policy guidance as it acknowledged signs that wage growth could accelerate.
“Over coming months, important additional evidence will be available to the board on both inflation and the evolution of labor costs,” RBA Gov. Philip Lowe said in a statement. The board will assess that data to find a policy path that will support full employment in Australia and keep inflation in line with its target, he said.
Economists said the statement was more hawkish than expected. Omitting earlier references to patience signaled the timing of Australia’s first rate hike since 2010 had been brought forward considerably, said David Plank, head of Australian economics at ANZ Bank. While the RBA appears to be pointing to a June interest-rate increase, a rise in May can’t be ruled out, he said.
The RBA has been an outlier among central banks, frequently preaching restraint on a return to rising rates despite climbing inflation.
Federal Reserve officials last month voted to lift interest rates and penciled in six more increases by year’s end, the most aggressive pace in more than 15 years, in an escalating effort to slow inflation that is running at its highest levels in four decades.
But, unlike the U.S., where workers have been receiving much fatter paychecks, Australian pay raises remain below the 3.0% annual increase the country’s central bank has indicated as a key threshold for a pivot on rates.
Wage growth remained subdued at 2.3% in the fourth quarter of last year. Core inflation ran at under 3.0% in the same period.
In Australia, income growth has been moribund for a decade. Mr. Lowe has previously said rates shouldn’t rise until there is more evidence of increasing salaries, or it would risk pushing inflation back below the central bank’s target range.
The RBA wants to get inflation entrenched in a 2%-3% band again, after a yearslong lull.
Australia has a rigid wage-setting system, under which close to 40% of workers are part of industrywide pay agreements that could be years from being renegotiated. The enterprise-bargaining agreements have, meantime, locked in annual increases in many cases well below a pace that would satisfy RBA policy makers.
Once a heavily unionized country, today only a small proportion of Australian workers are represented by unions, skewing the power in wage negotiations toward employers.
On Tuesday, Mr. Lowe said wage growth on aggregate remains around the relatively low rates that prevailed before the pandemic. “There are, however, some areas where larger wage increases are occurring” and there is the prospect of further growth given the tightness of the labor market, he said.
Economists had been urging the RBA to begin signaling a rate increase on the horizon. Financial markets have for some time been pricing in the prospect of an interest-rate increase in June, followed by a rapid tightening cycle over the following year.
“The market has been widely expecting this pivot by the RBA for some time,” said Ivan Colhoun, global head of research at National Australia Bank. “Indeed, there are around 13 rate increases currently priced over the next two years.”
Many economists are expecting to see a sharp acceleration in consumer-price growth as recent floods have pushed up food prices, and soaring crude-oil prices have sharply raised gasoline prices at the pump.
Australia’s unemployment rate has headed toward its lowest point since the early 1970s, with job vacancies at record levels as a strong economic recovery tightens the labor market.
Still, the RBA’s decision to cut the reference to patience from its guidance led to a further jump in the Australian dollar, to a high of 76.26 U.S. cents from 75.40 cents before the statement. The gain extended a monthslong climb in the Australian currency that has been supported by rising commodity prices, most recently exacerbated by the conflict in Ukraine.
First-quarter inflation data, to be published later this month, and first-quarter wage-growth figures due in May will be critical for the central bank’s decision making and market pricing around the timing of a rate increase, said Robert Rennie, head of financial market strategy at Westpac. He said the Australian dollar could meantime climb further, toward 77 cents, given continuing support from elevated thermal-coal prices.
Roman Abramovich: The ‘billionaire from nowhere’ and his back-channel diplomacy
Abramovich’s diplomatic voyage
Roman Abramovich’s allies paint him as a philanthropist and football enthusiast who flung himself into attempts to stop Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
His critics say he’s a cunning businessman who, having made his money from buying oil group Sibneft in an auction (which critics allege was rigged), would do almost anything to preserve his carefully-constructed life in the West and salvage his overseas assets.
The role played by Chelsea Football Club’s owner in Russia-Ukraine peace talks, which Vladimir Putin personally approved, remains unclear, according to a source sympathetic to the Russian billionaire, who spoke to the FT for this deep-dive by DD’s Arash Massoudi and a team of colleagues.
“Could it be a double agenda? Sure, but who else could do that — to help Ukraine and stop Russia?” the person close to him said. “Roman’s the only one who’s trying.”
Orphaned from the age of three, Abramovich found his way into oil trading after the collapse of the Soviet Union and — thanks to a chance encounter in 1994 with the Russian tycoon Boris Berezovsky — was well placed to take advantage of the country’s pawning of its crown jewels.
During that period of turbulence, Abramovich acquired Sibneft with Berezovsky for about $200mn, a fraction of the $13bn for which he would sell it to state-owned Gazprom in 2005, a deal that provides the source of most of Abramovich’s wealth.
“He was a shadowy tycoon from Siberia [ . . .] then all of a sudden he is a legitimate British businessman with a fat cheque underwritten by the Russian government,” said Roman Borisovich, a former Russian banker turned anti-corruption campaigner.
The so-called “Billionaire from Nowhere” played down any suggestion that he was a close confidant of Putin as he snapped up a £200mn portfolio of UK property, various megayachts and the football club that made him a household name in Britain. (Side note: his 15-bedroom mansion in Kensington Palace Gardens was formerly the Soviet embassy.)
But as his Londongrad empire came under fire, Abramovich flipped the script that he had written for himself, using his personal relationship with Putin as his trump card and a source of leverage as a peacemaker as he jetted between Moscow, Israel and Turkey and even Kyiv.
“It looks like they have much closer relations than I believed. He was always closer to Putin than me, but I didn’t think he was this close,” said one oligarch who has known both men since the 1990s. “Nobody was aware. Nobody else could play this role.”
As Abramovich shuttles around, so too do some of his yachts. He owns or is linked to five yachts estimated to be worth almost $1bn, including several whose ownership remained secret until the FT first reported about their existence last week.
Solaris, which he reportedly owns, left a Turkish marina on Monday after the FT reported lawyers’ views that the UK-listed operator of the port risked violating sanctions by harbouring the vessel.
>>> Up
* Atrium Ljungberg Raised to Buy at Kepler Cheuvreux (+)
* Basler Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 135 euros
* NN Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 54.30 euros
* Prudential Raised to Neutral at Exane (+)
* Swedbank Raised to Buy at Deutsche Bank
* Teva ADRs Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT $13
* TGS Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 173 kroner
* Unipol Raised to Outperform at Exane (+)
* Vestas Raised to Outperform at Credit Suisse; PT 250 kroner (+)
>>> Down
* Berkshire Hathaway Cut to Hold at Edward Jones
* CareTech Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 750 pence
* Catena Cut to Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 590 kronor (+)
* Credit Agricole Cut to Sell at AlphaValue/Baader
* Enagas Cut to Sell at Alantra Equities; PT 20.64 euros (+)
* Kojamo Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT 24.25 euros
* Kongsberg Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 370 kroner
* Lloyds Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 58 pence
* M&G Cut to Underperform at Exane (+)
* Moneysupermarket Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 220 pence
* Munich Re Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 275 euros
* Next Fifteen Cut to Add at Peel Hunt; PT 1,580 pence (+)
* Olvi Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 37 euros
* Paccar Cut to Hold at Jefferies; PT $85
* Traton Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT 18 euros
* UnipolSai Cut to Underperform at Exane (+)
* Vale ADRs Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT $22
* Valmet Cut to Hold at Handelsbanken
* Virgin Money UK Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 225 pence
* Vodafone Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 145 pence
>>> Initiation
* Adyen Rated New Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT 2,201 euros
* Amedeo Air Four Plus Rated New Buy at Liberum; PT 38 pence (+)
* Darktrace Rated New Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 400 pence
* FastPartner Rated New Hold at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 110 kronor (+)
* Fiserv Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $122
* GSK Rated New Buy at Spin-Off Research; PT 1,800 pence
* Michelmersh Brick Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 160 pence
* PayPal Reinstated Overweight at Wells Fargo; PT $152
* Water Intelligence Rated New Buy at Arden Partners
>> Call
* Casino Gets ‘Important’ Boost From Mercialys Sale: Bryan Garnier (+)
* Lloyds, Virgin Money Cut on Mortgage Margin Headwinds: Barclays (+)
* Basler Now at Attractive Entry Point, Berenberg Upgrades to Buy
* Goldman Strategists See Case for European Dividend Strategies (+)
* Kion Guidance Removal No Surprise, But May Weigh on Stock: Citi
* M&S, Discounters Grow as U.K. Supermarket Sales Fall: Nielsen (+)
* Moneysupermarket Cut With More Upside Elsewhere: Barclays (+)
* Moonpig’s Recent Share Price Correction Is Overdone, Citi Says (+)
* Negative Real Rates Support Stock Valuations: Citi Strategists (+)
* Pirelli, Michelin Long-Term EV Winners, Shares Appear Oversold
* Truckmaker Estimates Cut at Jefferies, Traton Downgraded to Hold
* Vodafone Downgraded at Berenberg on M&A Risk, Consensus Concerns
April 05, 2022
Makor - Sanofi - Euroapi's Spin-Off
SANOFI (SAN FP)
Euroapi's Spin-Off
1/ Conclusion
Europa’s spin-off is almost irrelevant at the Sanofi’s level.
Indeed, Euroapi’s value represents less than 1% of Sanofi’s enterprise value.
There might be upside in Euroapi but the BpiFrance’s transaction will weight on Euroapi’s shares for a while.
The BpiFrance stake‘s acquisition implied a 42% discount to SFZN EV/EBITDA 22E and an implied price per share for Euroapi of €13.3.
The spin-off is being structured as a distribution in kind and will be taxable.
The distribution ex-date is May 06th.
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