>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of May 2022 V2(+)

>>> Up
* Ashtead Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 4,625 pence
* Cary Group Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 62 kronor
* HgCapital Raised to Buy at Stifel (+)
* Kongsberg Raised to Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 375 kroner
* Mediolanum Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 8 euros
* Scatec Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 118 kroner
* Simcorp Raised to Hold at Nordea (+)
* Swedbank Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Watches of Switzerland Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 1,330 pence

>>> Down
* Bakkafrost Cut to Hold at Nordea (+)
* Carvana Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $40
* Credit Suisse Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 8 Swiss francs
* Gecina Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 110 euros
* Peloton Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $14
* Peloton PT Cut to $19 from $32 at Morgan Stanley
* Vodafone Cut to Neutral at Redburn as Macro Risks Dent Cash Flow

>>> Initiation
* Maasoeval Rated New Buy at SpareBank; PT 58 kroner (+)
* Tesla Rated New Add at CTBC Securities; PT $880
* Trilogiq Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT 10.20 euros

>>> Call
* Alstom’s Results and Outlook Are ‘Encouraging,’ Citi Says
* Ahold’s Increased Outlook Reflects US Strength: Bryan Garnier (+)
* Brenntag Sees Strong Start on Margins, Supply Capability: Citi (+)
* Compass Buyback Is Earlier Than Expected After 2Q ‘Big Beat:’ MS (+)
* Market Turning Defensive Amid Growth Woes: Barclays Strategists (+)
* Credit Suisse Cut at Berenberg, Says It’s ‘Hard to Be Positive’
* Elis 1Q Beats, See Upside to Unchanged Guidance: Morgan Stanley
* Eiffage Stock Supported by Beat in Order Intake: Morgan Stanley (+)
* Pirelli 1Q ‘Good,’ Guidance In Line With Consensus: DB (+)
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Stocks to Correct Further
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Not Pricing In Slowdown
* Watches of Switzerland Raised at Goldman on ‘Resilient’ Sales

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Swedish Match (SWMC TH) +4.3%
    • Philip Morris Agrees to Buy Swedish Match for $16 Billion
  • Prosus (1TY TH) +4.2%
    • Watch European, U.S. Tech Stocks as Asian Peers Rally
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +3.8%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +3.5%
    • *THYSSENKRUPP RAISES FY SALES AND EARNINGS FORECAST
    • Thyssenkrupp Sees FY Adjusted Ebit at Least EU2B
  • Rational (RAA TH) +3.2%
  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) +2.3%
    • Watch European, U.S. Tech Stocks as Asian Peers Rally
  • TUI (TUI1 TH) +2%
  • Adyen (1N8 TH) +1.9%
  • ArcelorMittal (ARRD TH) +1.8%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +1.7%
  • Vestas (VWSB TH) -0.9%
  • Alstom (AOMD TH) -1.5%
    • Alstom Stems Cash Drain, Takes $465 Million Russia Writedown
  • K+S (SDF TH) -1.8%
    • K+S 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) -8.1%
    • Supreme Court Urged by US to Reject Bayer Roundup Appeal (1)

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) +1.9%
  • Delivery Hero (DHER TH) +1.8%
    • Watch European, U.S. Tech Stocks as Asian Peers Rally
  • VW (VOW3 TH) +1.4%
  • Porsche SE (PAH3 TH) +1.2%
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +1.2%
  • Bayer (BAYN TH) -7.1%
    • Supreme Court Urged by US to Reject Bayer Roundup Appeal (1)
MDAX:
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +4%
    • *THYSSENKRUPP RAISES FY SALES AND EARNINGS FORECAST
    • Thyssenkrupp Sees FY Adjusted Ebit at Least EU2B
  • Telefonica Deutschland (O2D TH) +2.4%
  • Evonik (EVK TH) +1.9%
  • Kion (KGX TH) +1.7%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +1.4%
  • Freenet (FNTN TH) +0.1%
  • K+S (SDF TH) -0.5%
    • K+S 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
  • Grand City Properties (GYC TH) -0.9%
SDAX:
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +6.6%
    • SMA Solar 1Q Ebitda EU15M
  • Bilfinger (GBF TH) +5.6%
    • Bilfinger 1Q Sales EU961M Vs. EU833M Y/y
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +3.8%
    • AUTO1 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
  • Wacker Neuson (WAC TH) +3.4%
  • About You (YOU TH) +3.2%
  • Shop Apotheke (SAE TH) +1.1%
  • Jenoptik (JEN TH) +0.7%
    • Jenoptik 1Q Ebitda EU21M Vs. EU16.5M Y/y
  • VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) -0.8%

>>> What to look at today - 11th of May 2022

Most Asian stocks rose Wednesday amid a China rally sparked by declining Covid cases, which spurred hopes that growth-sapping lockdowns could be loosened. Treasuries were steady ahead of a US inflation report. Mainland Chinese bourses rose more than 1.5%, while technology stocks rallied in Hong Kong. New infections fell in Shanghai and the city reported none in the community. The cases were instead detected in quarantine facilities. A Wall Street advance Tuesday also brought some respite from this year’s equity rout, which has been fueled by fears of an economic downturn as borrowing costs jump. U.S. and European futures pushed higher. Treasury yields were little changed and a dollar gauge remained near the highest level since 2020 as investors parsed Federal Reservecomments on tightening monetary policy. Oil climbed past $101 a barrel.  Chinese inflation data showed factory-gate prices rose 8%, faster than expected. The US consumer-price index later is expected to moderate but stay above 8%. Disruptions linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine and China’s outbreak are stoking the cost of living.  Fed officials reinforced Chair Jerome Powell’s message that half-point hikes are on the table in June and July. But Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester told Bloomberg Television that “we don’t rule out 75 forever,” referring to a more aggressive, three-quarter-point increase.
Ukraine and Russia clashed over natural gas sent via pipelines to Europe in a spat that could disrupt supplies. Prices for the commodity jumped. US After Hours U -26.6%, COIN -16.4%, ICHR -10.5%, TTD -6.6%, RBLX -3.8% lower on earnings; PLBY +10.7%, REAL +10%, HRB +4.5%, EA +2.3% higher on earnings

Nikkei +0.29% Hang Seng +2% CSI +2.80% Shanghai +2.09% Shenzen +3.37%

Eur$ 1.0546 CNH 6.7418 CNY 6.7242 JPY 130.30 GBP 1.2337 CHF 0.9944 RUB 69.8725 TRY 15.3422 WTI$ 102.37 +2.55% Gold 1,837.68 -0.03% BTC 31,150 +1.65% ETH 2,383 +2.40%

S&P +0.32% NAsdaq +0.70% EuroStoxx +0.71% FTSE +0.51% Dax +0.26% SMI +0.05%

Macro :
- EU Weights Easing Green Standards as It Replaces Russia Fuel: FT
- Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Stocks to Correct Further
- Ukraine Grid Says Russia Flows Via Key Entry Point to Stop
- ECB’s Villeroy Says Governments Must Tackle Debt as Rates Rise
- Add China’s Housing Risk to List of Fed’s Worries: China Today

Keep an eye on :
- ARL GY : Aareal Bank 1Q Operating Profit EU30M Vs. EU32M Y/y
- AED BB : Aedifica 1Q EPRA EPS EU1.11 Vs. EU0.97 Y/y
- AGS BB : Ageas 1Q Net Income EU271.8M Vs. EU295.9M Y/y
- AD NA : Ahold Delhaize 1Q Adjusted Operating Margin Beats Estimates
- AF FP : Air France Seeing Revival in Transatlantic Business Travel
- ALC SW : Alcon 1Q Core EPS Beats Estimates
- ALFEN NA : Alfen Boosts FY Revenue Forecast, Beats Estimates
- ALO FP : Alstom Stems Cash Drain, Takes $465 Million Russia Writedown
- ALO FP : Alstom in Talks to Sell TMH Stake to Russian Partners: BFMTV
- ASML NA : GlobalFoundries 1Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates
- AG1 GY : AUTO1 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Loss EU47.6M Vs. Loss EU14.3M Y/y
- BEKB BB : Bekaert 1Q Revenue EU1.39B Vs. EU1.13B Y/y
- GBF GY : Bilfinger 1Q Sales EU961M Vs. EU833M Y/y
- BNR GY : Brenntag 1Q Oper Ebitda Beats Estimates
- CABB IPO : Permira Mandates UBS For Swiss IPO of Chemical Maker: FAZ
- CWC GY : Cewe Stiftung Maintains FY Ebit Forecast
- DFDS DC : DFDS Sees FY Revenue +30%, Saw +23% to +27%
- EOAN GY : EON’s First-Quarter Earnings Drop Amid ‘Turbulent’ Energy Market
- EOAN GY : EON Sees ‘3 Digit Million’-Euro Drop on Nord Stream Investment
- EQNR NO : Storebrand to Vote Against Equinor’s Energy Transition Plan: DN
- EVT GY : Evotec SE 1Q Adjusted Ebitda EU18.9M Vs. EU21.1M Y/y
- FGR FP : Eiffage 1Q Like-for-Like Sales +9.1%
- ELIS FP : Elis 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- EVT GY : Evotec SE 1Q Adjusted Ebitda EU18.9M Vs. EU21.1M Y/y
- G IM : Mediobanca Could Weigh Option of Possible Generali Exit: Sole
- H24 GY : Home24 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Loss EU6.1M Vs. Profit EU0.6M Y/y
- ILTY IM : Illimity 1Q Operating Income EU33.5M Vs. EU19.5M Y/y
- INH GY : Indus Holding Maintains FY Ebit Forecast
- INPST NA : InPost 1Q Adjusted Ebitda 409.1M Zloty Vs. 332.2M Zloty Y/y
- JEN GY : Jenoptik 1Q Ebitda EU21M Vs. EU16.5M Y/y
- SDF GY : K+S 1Q Ebitda Beats Estimates
- TKWY NA : Tiger Global Cuts Stake in Just Eat Takeaway Amid Stock Slump
- LEG GY : LEG Immobilien 1Q Adjusted Ebitda Meets Estimates
- LHA GY : Lufthansa Apologizes for Blocking Orthodox Jews From Flight
- LUN DC : Lundbeck 1Q Core Ebit Beats Estimates
- MEKO SS : Mekonomen 1Q Ebit SEK190M Vs. SEK186M Y/y
- MOWI NO : Mowi 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- NEL NO : Nel 1Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- U US : Unity Software Plummets 34% After Results and Forecast
- ONTEX BB : American Industrial Partners Is Said to Consider Ontex Takeover
- PIRC IM : Pirelli Sees FY Adjusted Ebit Margin About 15%
- PNL NA : PostNL to Raise Deliverer Wages by 4% Twice in Two-Year Period
- RAA GY : Rational 1Q Ebit EU47.8M Vs. EU32M Y/y
- ROG SW : Roche Tiragolumab Skyscraper-01 Trial Misses Co-Primary Endpoint
- ROVI SM : Rovi Sees FY Operating Revenue +15% to +20%
- SGO FP : Bluebell Capital Calls for Shake-Up at France’s Saint-Gobain: FT
- SFER IM : Salvatore Ferragamo 1Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- ENR GY : Siemens Energy Says Full-Year Profit Will Be at Low End of Range
- S92 GY : SMA Solar 1Q Ebitda EU15M Vs. EU20M Y/y
- SLHN SW : Swiss Life 1Q Fee and Commission Income CHF579M Vs. CHF527M Y/y
- SWMA SS : Philip Morris Agrees to Buy Swedish Match for $16 Billion
- TATE LN : Soylent, Adopted Early by Tech Bros, Is Said to Explore a Sale
- O2D GY : Telefonica Deutschland 1Q Adjusted Oibda Beats Estimates
- TSCO LN : Investor Lobby Pushes U.K. Grocers to Improve Consumer Health
- TEVA IT : Teva, Allergan Poised to Pay $5 Billion to Resolve Opioid Suits
- TKA GY : *THYSSENKRUPP RAISES FY SALES AND EARNINGS FORECAST
- TKO FP : Tikehau-Backed SPAC to Buy Banijay in Deal Worth $4.3 Billion
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies Shutting Down Climate Tech Investment Arm: Axios
- TUI1 GY : TUI 2Q Underlying Ebit Loss EU329.9M, Est. Loss EU340.8M
- UBI FP : Electronic Arts 1Q Adj Rev Forecast Misses Estimates: Snapshot
- UCG IM : UniCredit Approves $3.2 Billion State-Backed Telecom Italia Loan
- UCG IM : UniCredit Launches Share Repurchase Program for Up To EU1.58b
- VLK NA : Van Lanschot Kempen 1Q Total Client Assets EU125.5B
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Is Bringing Back the Scout, the SUV Pioneer, as an EV -- WSJ
- ZURN SW : Zurich Insurance in Talks to Sell $21 Billion Book to Viridium

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 11th of May 2022

>>> Up
* Ashtead Raised to Outperform at RBC; PT 4,625 pence
* Cary Group Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 62 kronor
* Mediolanum Raised to Outperform at KBW; PT 8 euros
* Scatec Raised to Buy at SpareBank; PT 118 kroner
* Swedbank Raised to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Watches of Switzerland Raised to Buy at Goldman; PT 1,330 pence

>>> Down
* Carvana Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $40
* Credit Suisse Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 8 Swiss francs
* Gecina Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 110 euros
* Peloton Cut to Hold at Stifel; PT $14
* Peloton PT Cut to $19 from $32 at Morgan Stanley
* Vodafone Cut to Neutral at Redburn as Macro Risks Dent Cash Flow

>>> Initiation
* Tesla Rated New Add at CTBC Securities; PT $880
* Trilogiq Rated New Outperform at Grupo Santander; PT 10.20 euros

>>> Call
* Credit Suisse Cut at Berenberg, Says It’s ‘Hard to Be Positive’
* Elis 1Q Beats, See Upside to Unchanged Guidance: Morgan Stanley
* Morgan Stanley Strategists Say Europe Stocks to Correct Further
* Morgan Stanley’s Wilson Says US Stocks Not Pricing In Slowdown
* Watches of Switzerland Raised at Goldman on ‘Resilient’ Sales

FT : ETF assets will surpass $20tn by 2026, PwC predicts

ETF assets will surpass $20tn by 2026, PwC predicts
The accountancy firm canvassed executives representing more than 80% of global ETF assets

Assets managed by exchange traded funds globally could grow to more than $20tn by 2026, according to a PwC report, which revealed executives expect the ETF market’s “phenomenal momentum” of the past five years to continue.

In its new report, entitled ETFs 2026: The next big leap, the accountancy giant predicts that assets will grow to more than $20tn, representing a 17 per cent compound annual growth rate is achievable.

“Given global ETF AUM growth of 22 per cent over the past five years ending December 2020, combined with record inflows, new entrants, innovative products and distribution opportunities, we believe that a projection of over $20tn global ETF AUM by 2026 can be achieved,” the report said.

Global ETF assets nearly tripled from $3.4tn in 2016 to more than $10tn in November last year.

PwC said 58 per cent of respondents to its survey expected ETF assets to increase to at least $18tn by 2026, representing a 14.6 per cent CAGR between June 2021 and June 2026.

PwC conducted the survey among 60 executives from providers representing over 80 per cent of global ETF assets.

The poll also found that 45 per cent of respondents expect over half of their 2022 product launches to be focused on environmental, social and governance investing and that more than 80 per cent expect online platforms to represent the primary source of future demand for ETFs.

PwC says in its report that “accelerating innovation is opening up a wealth of investment opportunities and customer choice within the ETF market” and that thematic, equity and cryptocurrency ETFs in particular “stand out as potential sources of demand and untapped opportunity”.

FT : French bibliophiles voice alarm over Vivendi takeover

French bibliophiles voice alarm over Vivendi takeover
EU regulators likely to require a package of ‘remedies’ to protect booksellers and authors over Lagardère deal

Victor Hugo once wrote: “The mind that does not read withers like the body that does not eat.” 

In the country that gave birth to the author of Les Misérables, such sentiment has meant that literature is not supposed to be a vulgar business like any other but rather an art form to be protected. So the pending acquisition of France’s biggest publisher Hachette by billionaire corporate raider Vincent Bolloré has set the local literary world on edge.

Bolloré’s media group Vivendi is in the midst of a tender offer to buy out the 55 per cent of Lagardère, which owns Hachette, that it does not already own. If finalised, the deal would make Vivendi the third-biggest publisher after Bertelsmann’s Penguin Random House and News Corp-owned HarperCollins, and be a key step in Bolloré’s rebuilding of the group after selling most of its biggest business Universal Music Group last year. 

Antitrust regulators in Brussels will have the final word as they are now reviewing the deal. But it is already clear that book publishing in France poses the biggest potential competition problem because Vivendi already owns the second-biggest player Editis and Hachette is number one. 

Competitors have already sounded the alarm. Antoine Gallimard, the owner of the third-largest French publisher, says the deal is “unthinkable” and “harmful”. One booksellers’ union likened the future group to a “financial and marketing bulldozer” that would block unknown or unconventional authors from making it to market, reducing the “biblio-diversity” of France.

They have a point. If Vivendi were to swallow Hachette, the new group would hold about 70 per cent of the French market for schoolbooks, and more than 50 per cent for paperbacks and tourism books, according to the economist Françoise Benhamou. Hachette and Editis combined made about €1.5bn in revenue in France last year, which would make the new entity about two and a half times bigger in terms of revenue than the next two largest players Madrigall (owner of Gallimard and Flammarion) and Média Participations (Seuil and La Martinière).

Regulators are likely to require a package of “remedies” to protect French booksellers and authors from being harmed if they approve the deal. This could include asset sales in particular book categories or in areas such as distribution and logistics. Vivendi has publicly acknowledged the need for remedies.

However, there is another factor causing the consternation in the literary world that may be harder to assuage: Vincent Bolloré himself. Although the 70-year-old industrialist recently officially handed off running his business empire to his sons, he still keeps a close eye on Vivendi, which he has turned into a dominant force across French media. The group owns television channels, radio stations, magazines and newspapers, an advertising agency, and a TV and movie production arm.

Under the politically-conservative Bolloré, the group has not hesitated to give some of those outlets a rightward tilt. It turned 24-hour news channel CNews into a raucous cousin of Fox News that launched the political career of far-right presidential candidate Éric Zemmour.

Would the book publishing business be affected by Bolloré’s politics? Antitrust regulators have little ability to weigh on such political questions, but if the example of the US is anything to go by, they are paying close attention to potential competition distortions in the sector. The US Department of Justice has sued to block another major merger, Penguin Random House’s proposed $2.2bn acquisition of Viacom’s Simon & Schuster, on the grounds that it would lead to lower advances for authors, fewer books and less variety for consumers.

French booklovers do already benefit from a much stricter regulatory framework than in the US that has helped insulate publishers and bookstores from the ravages of Amazon and changing consumer habits. In the 1980s, the government decided that books were not a product like any other and decreed a “single price” for books that in effect banned discounting, and it later extended the system to e-books. That has left less of a breach for Amazon to exploit so it has grabbed only 10 per cent share of the total book market compared with 40 per cent in the US. France also still has a lot of independent booksellers. 

In such an environment, it would be a brave regulator not to insist on protection for Victor Hugo’s beloved pastime if Bolloré’s Vivendi buys Hachette.

>>> US After Hours Summary: U -26.6%, COIN -16.4%, ICHR -10.5%, TTD -6.6%, RBLX -3.8% lower on earnings; PLBY +10.7%, REAL +10%, HRB +4.5%, EA +2.3% higher on earnings


After Hours Summary: U -26.6%, COIN -16.4%, ICHR -10.5%, TTD -6.6%, RBLX -3.8% lower on earnings; PLBY +10.7%, REAL +10%, HRB +4.5%, EA +2.3% higher on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: GSM +11.3%, PLBY +10.7%, REAL +10%, CELH +8.4%, ELY +7.9%, HCAT +7.7%, ABCL +7.1%, PRPL +7.1%, ZETA +6.4%, PAYA +5.5%, ORGO +4.9%, ARLO +4.7%, MTTR +4.5%, HRB +4.5%, BOOT +4.3%, AXON +3.7%, FNF +3.5%, GFS +3.5%, SOFI +3.2%, GO +3%, EA +2.3% (also increases dividend), OSUR +2.3%, MSP +2.2%, ALC +2.1%, SKIN +1.5%, KGC +1.3%, DAR +1.2%, EXEL +1.2%, HALO +0.8%, EGHT +0.4%, MODN +0.4%, WES +0.3%, ARWR +0.3%, DV +0.1%, GMED +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: FMC +4.7% (receives pre-suit injunction in China for patent infringement), RAIL +4.7% (CEO to retire in 2023), NVVE +4.5% (to integrate its vehicle-to-grid GIVe platform with Power Electronics charging station tech), HOLX +1.7% (FDA approves Aptima CMV Quant assay for human cytomegalovirus), RTX +1.6% (awarded $270 mln Navy contract), CDLX +1.2% (authorizes new $40 mln share repurchase program), IVZ +0.1% (reports April AUM), AMK +0.1% (reports performance highlights for April), DAN +0.1% (DAN announces long-term supply agreement with LEV)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: U -26.6%, INO -19.3% (also names new CEO), COIN -16.4% (also files mixed securities shelf offering), BIRD -15.7%, GRWG -15.7% (also to delay its 10-Q), VUZI -15.1%, GOEV -11.9% (also notes a going concern issue; also files mixed securities shelf offering), ICHR -10.5%, OLO -9.8%, YELL -8.4%, CRCT -7.7%, TTD -6.6%, FLYW -5.4%, ARRY -5.3%, RBLX -3.8%, RKT -3.8%, WBT -2.3%, DOMA -1.4%, KIND -1.3%, OXY -1.2%, GBDC -1.2%, AKA -1.1%, DOUG -0.4%, NSTG -0.4%, RXT -0.3% (also evaluating strategic alternatives and options), SWCH -0.3%, WYNN -0.2%, JXN -0.1%, PAR -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: APP -8.5% (in sympathy with weak earnings from peer U), FOLD -6.4% (FDA extends review period by 90 days for the BLA for cipaglucosidase alfa and the NDA for miglustat), RYI -6.2% (stock offering), CO -5.4% (announces receipt of petition from Blue Ocean Structure Investment), MRCY -3.6% (signs collaboration agreement with LMT to develop new sensor processing technologies), WKHS -3% (finalizes purchase order for 10 battery EVs to add to Amerit's fleet), ARKK -2.9% (U and COIN are both top 10 holdings), TCDA -1.8% (files for $350 mln mixed securities shelf offering), AQN -1.5% (expands renewables partnership with FB), AB -0.7% (reports April AUM), LEV -0.3% (DAN announces long-term supply agreement with LEV), NOVT -0.2% (files mixed securities shelf offering), RXRX -0.2% (files mixed securities shelf offering), AMRC -0.1% (awarded $7.9 mln Army contract)