>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • Infineon (IFX TH) +0.4%
    • Watch European, US Chip Stocks as TSMC Delivers Sales Beat
  • Deutsche Bank (DBK TH) -0.3%
    • Volkswagen Is Said to Add More Banks to Porsche Sports Car IPO
  • Airbus (AIR TH) -0.9%
MDAX:
  • Kion (KGX TH) +1.1%
  • Knorr-Bremse (KBX TH) +1%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.8%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +0.8%
  • TAG Immobilien (TEG TH) -5%
    • TAG IMMOBILIEN RESOLVES ON €200M CAPITAL INCREASE
SDAX:
  • Indus Holding (INH TH) +1.3%
  • Kloeckner (KCO TH) +1.3%
  • SAF-Holland SE (SFQ TH) +0.8%
  • Hensoldt (HAG TH) -0.9%
  • MorphoSys (MOR TH) -0.9%
  • Heidelberger Druck (HDD TH) -1.2%

>>> What to look at today - 8th of July 2022

Stocks in Asia climbed on Friday, bolstered by the possibility of major stimulus in China as well as hopes that policy makers can get inflation under control without causing a global economic downturn. An Asian share index added over 0.5% after the best Wall Street session in two weeks swept up everything from speculative investments to technology titans.  China may let local governments sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of special bonds in the second half. The cash would mostly be used for infrastructure spending to shore up an economy hit by Covid lockdowns and a housing slump. Such outlays could aid metals and oil, which traded around $102 a barrel.  But the Asian share session came off the day’s high on reports that former Japanese Prime Minster Shinzo Abe collapsed and was left unconscious after apparently being shot. The development also pushed up the yen and Treasuries while weighing somewhat on US and European equity futures. On Thursday, Federal Reserve policy makers pushed back against market fears of a recession as monetary settings tighten. Governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed President James Bullard backed the need for restrictive policy to curb price pressures but argued the US can avert a contraction. Portions of the US yield curve remain inverted, stoking concerns that the threat of recession is elevated. High bond volatility also points to great uncertainty. All eyes will be on the US jobs report on Friday for further clues about the Fed’s policy path. the pound rose after Boris Johnson announced his intention to resign as British prime minister, easing the political chaos in the UK. US After Hours Summary: LEVI +3.6% higher on earnings; WDFC -9.3%, NUS -5% lower on earnings/guidance; GME -5.5% as its CFO steps down

Nikkei +1.43% Hang Seng +0.18% CSI +0.12% Shanghai +0.08% Shenzen +0.15%

Eur$ 1.0161 CNH 6.7081 CNY 6.7060 JPY 135.51 GBP 1.2031 CHF 0.9731 RUB 64.0353 TRY 17.2798 WTI$ 102.50 -0.21% Gold 1,741.33 +0.07% BTC 22,030.20 +1.94% ETH 1,253.33 +1.26%

S&P -0.32% Nasdaq -0.42% EuroStoxx +0.00% FTSE -0.37% Dax -0.08% SMI

Macro :
- Bitcoin Rides Stock Rally to Hit Highest Level in Over a Week
- Xi’s $220 Billion Stimulus Is Less Than Meets Eye: China Today
- Former Japan PM Abe Unconscious After Shooting; Man in Custody
- UK’s Boris Johnson Faces Pressure From Own Party to Speed Exit
- John Paulson Hid Billions in Secret Trusts, Wife Claims
- Bank of Japan Nears Rubicon of 50% Share of JGBs: Markets Live

Keep ane eye on :
- BAVA DC : US to Make 144,000 More Doses of Monkeypox Vaccine Available
- CNA LN : CNA LN (Cites speculation of interest from rivals, PE, infrastructure funds) - Times
- EBK GY : German Govt May Give VNG up to EU2b Guarantee in a Crisis: DPA
- EDF FP : France Earmarks EU12.7B for EDF Delisting, Other Operations
- ERA FP : French Startup Looks to Roll Out Lithium Plants to Boost Supply
- FFARM NA : Forfarmers Now Sees 1H Underlying Ebitda ‘Slightly’ Higher Y/y
- KER FP : Luxury Brand Tom Ford Is Said to Explore Potential Sale
- LSG NO : Leroy Prelim 2Q Harvest 33,100 Metric Tons
- TL5 SM : MFE Partial Bid for Mediaset Espana Accepted by 27% of Capital
- REP SM : Repsol 2Q Refining Margin Widens, Crude Output Drops
- RR/ LN : Rolls-Royce Sees Widebody Demand Recovering Faster Than Expected
- SAS SS : SAS Gets Court Nod to Continue Operating While in Chapter 11
- SGSN SW : SGS Buys Proderm in Germany; No Deal Tems
- SWMA SS : Activist Elliott Is Said to Build Stake in Swedish Match
- TEN IM : Tenaris to Buy Benteler Steel & Tube for $460m
- TGS NO : TGS Prelim 2Q Net Revenue Rises to About $230M
- UN01 GY : Uniper Extends Gains on Report Germany May Take Over 30% Stake
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Is Said to Add More Banks to Porsche Sports Car IPO

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 8th of July 20222

>>> Up
* Aker BP Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 407 kroner
* Ashtead Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4,115 pence
* Atlas Copco Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 125 kronor
* Capricorn Energy Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 265 pence
* EFG International Raised to Buy at Octavian; PT 8 Swiss francs
* Energean Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT 1,300 pence
* Experian Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 3,100 pence
* Ferrexpo Raised to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 215 pence
* Leonardo Raised to Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 12.50 euros
* Rexel Raised to Outperform at Exane; PT 18 euros
* u-blox Raised to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 110 Swiss francs
* Verbund Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 115 euros
* XPO Logistics Raised to Overweight at Morgan Stanley; PT $75

>>> Down
* EQT Cut to Sell at Citi; PT 180 kronor
* Global Fashion Group Cut to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 1.60 euros
* Intertek Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 4,450 pence
* Marks & Spencer Cut to Sell at Goldman; PT 140 pence
* Marston's Cut to Reduce at HSBC; PT 40 pence
* Melrose Industries Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 155 pence
* Mitchells & Butlers Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 205 pence
* OTP Bank Cut to Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 9,050 forint
* Telenor Cut to Hold at HSBC; PT 140 kroner
* Travis Perkins Cut to Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley
* Ubisoft Cut to Neutral at Exane; PT 45 euros

>>> Initiation
* Berkeley Resumed Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 3,900 pence
* Ediston Property Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 90 pence
* Persimmon Resumed Underweight at Morgan Stanley; PT 1,600 pence
* Taylor Wimpey Resumed Underweight at Morgan Stanley

>>> Call
* Ashtead, Experian Upgraded at Morgan Stanley, Intertek Cut
* Energean, Capricorn Added to Buy-Rated E&P Stocks at Jefferies

FT : China bonds: higher yields are required to repay debts

China bonds: higher yields are required to repay debts
Record issuance means that total liabilities have reached concerning levels for some companies

Just two years ago, foreign investors and issuers were captivated by the Chinese bond market. Falling yields across the US and Europe drove offshore funds to renminbi-denominated Chinese debt. Government bonds, including local issuance, hit a record. Now the risks are rising.

China issued more than Rmb1.5tn ($223bn) of local government bonds in June, a monthly record and up 80 per cent from the previous year. Issuance of bonds designed to fund infrastructure projects has exceeded Rmb2.5tn so far this year, triple last year’s figure. Infrastructure-related, state-owned groups such as China State Railway Group have ramped up issuance too.

Hopes that infrastructure projects would stimulate lagging economic growth helped drive the surge. Borrowers took advantage of low rates. China State Railway, for example, sold 2026 bonds last autumn at a yield of just 3.16 per cent.

That made sense when yields on 10-year US Treasuries were below 1 per cent. Now they exceed 2.9 per cent.

Meanwhile, local defaults are rising. Last year, 37 Chinese bond issuers defaulted. Of those, 12 were state-owned enterprises. Foreign investors have realised that these do not come with implicit government guarantees. Record issuance means that for some companies total liabilities have reached concerning levels. At China State Railway, they hit Rmb5.9tn last year.

Investors should take the hint from foreign issuers who slashed offerings of renminbi-denominated bonds in China this year. Issuances of panda bonds are at less than half that of last year’s average.

Beijing’s strict zero-Covid policy continues to pressure domestic demand. Reaching the country’s full-year economic growth target of around 5.5 per cent is unlikely. Economists expect gross domestic product closer to 4 per cent.

Debt sales will not stop. Slowing growth means further infrastructure investments — and more borrowing — should be expected in the coming months. Chinese issuers will have to expand the spread between US and Chinese bond yields to attract the same level of investors.

FT : China developers face $13bn wall of dollar bond payments in second half

China developers face $13bn wall of dollar bond payments in second half
Foreign investors fear Beijing will favour onshore creditors as Shimao Group becomes latest to default

Chinese property developers face a $13bn wall of foreign currency bond payments in the second half of this year, as a mounting default tally darkens the market outlook.

China’s real estate sector has struggled to come to grips with slowing growth coupled with authorities’ efforts to rein in excess leverage. Waves of defaults have been triggered across the industry, unnerving fixed-income investors who frequently relied on developers’ offshore dollar bonds to deliver outsize returns during the era of ultra-low interest rates.

Real estate company Shimao Group’s default on a $1bn bond last Sunday has heightened concerns among bondholders with exposure to Chinese developers, who have long been a central driver of issuance in Asia’s high-yield dollar debt market. The Shimao bond had traded at just 12 cents on the dollar last week — pointing to high levels of financial distress — ahead of the payment deadline.

“It’s really just one after the other,” said one Asian fixed-income investor with experience trading Chinese developer debt. The investor added that most traders had stopped paying attention to yields and were instead looking at bonds’ dollar pricing — a switch that usually signals deep concerns or fears of imminent default.

“For the developers everybody thinks are still OK, it’s good if they’re in the high 60s or 70s,” the investor said, referring to the bonds’ value in terms of cents on the dollar. “Otherwise, you’re below 40.”

Data from Dealogic show about $13.3bn in dollar bond payments across more than 60 property groups will come due before the end of 2022, equivalent to 13 per cent of the sector’s more than $100bn in outstanding obligations to international bondholders.


The missed payment by Shimao, which has about $5.5bn in outstanding dollar debt, adds to a growing list of embattled developers, including Sunac and China Evergrande, the latter of which faces more than $300bn in total onshore and offshore liabilities.

Foreign creditors are increasingly concerned that onshore investors will be privileged over foreign bondholders and have described debt restructuring at Evergrande and other developers as “opaque” and “ad hoc”.

One Hong Kong-based bond trader, who asked not to be named, said there were few buyers left in Asia’s high-yield market and that investors with exposure were having a “hard time” as developers’ debt obligations mounted.

“Since around June, there’s been a lot of selling from global funds,” the trader said, adding that “it’s a bit late to sell, to be honest”.

Many expect that most of the distressed developers will seek debt extensions, “which lenders tend to agree to”, the trader added. Investors, for example, declined to accelerate other Shimao bond payments when it failed to make good on its recent $1bn bond bill.

Victor Shih, professor of Chinese political economy at the University of California, San Diego, said pressure on Chinese property developers had been further compounded by the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate rises, which have boosted yields provided by ultra-safe US government debt.

“It’s one thing if people were buying Evergrande [bonds] and getting 20 per cent yield, maybe it is worth it to bear the risk,” he said. “Notes that were issued [by developers] offshore a few years ago with a yield of 3 or 4 per cent, you can get that with the US Treasuries now,” he added.

Refinancing dollar debt had also become markedly more difficult for property groups, analysts said, as Covid-19 lockdowns have undermined consumer confidence and sapped demand for new housing in China.

Xiaoxi Zhang, China finance analyst at research group Gavekal, said “most Chinese developers have been shut out of the market and other Chinese high-yield issuers have also seen surging refinancing costs”.

Zhang added that even in China’s onshore bond market, “life is not easy” for private developers seeking to refinance renminbi-denominated debt — although state-owned real estate groups still had more ready access to financing. “As the Chinese economy is facing downward pressure, investors embrace state backing more than ever, making non-[state owned] names hard to refinance at decent cost.”

Despite lagging growth and rising defaults, few investors or analysts expected Beijing to launch a bailout for the cash-strapped property sector. At best, the Asian fixed-income investor said, “a few of these privately owned enterprises may live — and by live, I mean hop along on a crutch”.

FT : US urges Japan to cut cryptocurrency operations in Russia

US urges Japan to cut cryptocurrency operations in Russia
Washington provided Tokyo with information on Russian mining operations with Japanese ties

The US has called on Japan to step up pressure on the country’s cryptocurrency exchanges and miners, urging them to sever ties with Russia in a bid to further financially isolate the country from the outside world.

The request from US diplomats was directed to several of Japan’s 31 officially licensed crypto exchanges that are still running in Russia, according to people close to the situation.

The diplomats asked Tokyo to focus on halting cryptocurrency mining operations based in the Irkutsk region in Siberia, said two people familiar with the matter.

The area is favoured for mining operations because its relatively low temperatures require less cooling and because of the availability of cheap hydroelectric power.

In response, representatives of Japan’s Financial Services Agency renewed demands that the Japanese exchanges they oversee cut any surviving relationships, according to people close to three exchanges.

Asked about the request, the FSA and the US embassy in Tokyo declined to comment. The US state department said Washington and its allies were “united in our determination to hold Russia to account” for the war against Ukraine. “We will continue to evaluate the impacts of our measures and are prepared to take further measures,” a state department spokesperson said.

Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the administration of prime minister Fumio Kishida has been at pains to remain in lockstep with the US and allies on sanctions against Vladimir Putin’s regime and efforts to minimise Japanese business in Russia.

Washington’s decision to supply information on possible Japanese crypto mining operations in Russia was part of an effort to maintain pressure on Putin as the war continues, said people briefed on the matter.

Japan’s FSA, which regulates the country’s licensed cryptocurrency exchanges, responded quickly to Russian’s invasion of Ukraine.

On March 14, the FSA formally asked the exchanges to monitor any accounts or transactions involved the movement of assets of any person or entity under sanctions.

The request followed an emergency change to Japan’s Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Act, which brought cryptocurrencies and other digital assets under its umbrella and strengthened the government’s powers to stem their flow in and out of Japan.

The FSA’s notice did not directly ask the exchanges to close any Russia operations but some companies interpreted it that way and several stopped running in the country that month, according to people close to the situation.

Decurret, a cryptocurrency exchange, said that after the invasion and the FSA’s notice it had decided to suspend its operations in Russia.

Many of the exchanges contacted by the FT said that they currently do not have any operations in Russia. A senior executive at one exchange said that they knew of at least one mining company that had cut its relationships with Russia in June after the US request.

However some exchanges and crypto mining businesses have evolved a complex network of subsidiaries to continue working with their Russian operations, an allegation also raised by US diplomats, said people close to the situation.

The former head of one exchange, under condition of anonymity, confirmed that Japanese crypto exchanges had encountered a recent intensification of pressure to relocate any mining or back-office operations out of Russia.

But the person added that they knew of at least one exchange that had decided to maintain its business there, skirting the regulation by setting up a shell company in Singapore and routing payments via that.

FT : Deconstructed watch: Panerai Submersible S Brabus Blue Shadow edition

Deconstructed watch: Panerai Submersible S Brabus Blue Shadow edition
The Italian watchmaker has partnered with German company Brabus for a special edition diving watch

Fans of souped-up Mercedes-Benz cars will be familiar with the name of Brabus, the tuning house established in 1977 by the then 22-year-old Bodo Buschmann who went on to grow it into a multimillion dollar, international business.

Buschmann died in 2018, but not before he had experimented with applying Brabus customising methods to boats having bought an 11.3-metre Axopar a couple of years earlier and having it upgraded by his engineers to boost its performance and enhance its looks.

The project led to a joint venture with Axopar and now Brabus Marine offers a range of regular production and limited edition dayboats with suitably stealthy looks and levels of performance in-line with that of its cars.

Since Buschmann’s death Brabus has been run by his son Constantine who, mindful of the fact that the end of the road is nigh for new, internal combustion-powered road vehicles, is steadily diversifying the firm’s portfolio.

With that in mind, Brabus recently unveiled new 300bhp and 900bhp boats, a €40,000 KTM-based Brabus motorcycle and, through a collaboration with Panerai, what is expected to be an ongoing range of Brabus Marine-inspired watches.

The one shown here is called the Submersible S Brabus Blue Shadow edition and was first shown alongside the new Brabus Marine Blue Shadow boat during the Palma yacht show in April.

Limited to 200 examples and with a £40,600 price tag, it features a 47mm, 3D-printed titanium case and a unidirectional bezel made from Panerai’s carbon-fibre based Carbotech.

Decoration is taken care of by blue and grey dial detailing and a combination of blue SuperLuminova highlights for the minute hand and ‘12’ indicator and green for the remaining hour markers.

The most intriguing aspect of the watch, however, is its patented date display which takes the form of a laser-engraved glass plate topped with a polarised lens that magically avoids either revealing any unwanted parts of the date disc or hiding the workings of the skeletonised workings.

Comprising 341 parts, the in-house, P.4001/S automatic movement features a tungsten winding rotor, twin spring barrels, a GMT function and a power reserve indicator that’s visible through the sapphire case back.

Panerai’s patented crown locking lever (also made from Carbotech) helps to ensure water resistance down to 300 metres, to which end the watch is fitted with a practical leather and rubber hybrid strap.

FT : Jewellers and watchmakers grapple with when to enter the metaverse

Jewellers and watchmakers grapple with when to enter the metaverse
Luxury brands study the possibilities while some warn of danger of being left behind

For Jean-Christophe Babin, chief executive of Bulgari, the question is not whether luxury goods brands should enter the metaverse . . . but how. He worries about his high-end jewellery being “worn by a cubic avatar that looks like three pieces of Lego put together”. But he can imagine a Bulgari “gem discovery game”.

The metaverse is a term coined by Neal Stephenson, in his 1992 science fiction novel Snow Crash, for a “computer-generated universe” in which people communicate via avatars.

Today, its meaning varies. “[It is] partly a dream of the future of the internet and partly a way to encapsulate current trends in online infrastructure, including the growth of real-time 3D worlds,” according to Metaverse and Money: Decrypting the Future, a report published by Citi GPS in March.

Ronit Ghose, global head of banking, fintech and digital assets at Citi Global Insights, says the metaverse is “immersive, it’s persistent and it’s a shared virtual space”.

“If you have a business model that in any way touches the internet, or you think your next generation of consumers will be using the internet to experience, choose, decide, transact, then you have to be interested in the metaverse,” he argues.

“It’s just the next generation of the internet if you take that broad definition.”

Citi’s report estimates that the target market for the metaverse economy could be worth between $8tn and $13tn in 2030, so it is no surprise that watch and jewellery brands have increased investment.

At Bulgari, improving technology to make “more elegant” avatars is one of the tasks facing its innovation business unit, which was launched in 2020 and has a creative laboratory in Rome.

Meanwhile, Tag Heuer, the Swiss watchmaker, advanced its digital strategy last month with the launch of an non-fungible token viewer for its Connected Calibre E4 smartwatch. This feature, available as a free update, allows owners to display NFTs — digital tokens stored on a blockchain, representing unique assets such as art or media, and viewable on wallet apps — on their watchface. The watch connects to the owner’s wallet app in order to verify authenticity.
Frédéric Arnault, chief executive of Tag Heuer, which is owned by LVMH, says it “feels natural” for the company to investigate this world but that it doesn’t “want to jump on it too fast”. “We don’t want it to feel opportunistic,” he says. “We want to come with a real vision that we’ll be able to sustain and that will drive value.”

Arnault, a collector of NFTs, says his brand is going after NFT enthusiasts. “It is very important as a starting point to acknowledge and respect the community, and so we deliver a feature and a product that is useful and exciting for the community,” he says.

In May, Tag Heuer started to accept 12 cryptocurrencies, including bitcoin and ethereum, for purchases on its US website, but it is yet to issue its own NFTs.

Thomas Chauvet, head of luxury goods equity research at Citi, believes that, apart from connected watches, brands are not yet ready to explore the commercial opportunities of the metaverse, in much the same way that they were initially reluctant to embrace ecommerce.

Instead, he says, they will focus on it as a “communication tool” or “authentication opportunity”.


Panerai, the Italian watchmaker, launched its first NFTs last month to “upgrade the customer experience”, according to Jean-Marc Pontroué, chief executive.

Buyers of the Radiomir Eilean Experience Edition watch — it is limited to 50 pieces — were invited to sail along Italy’s Amalfi coast aboard a classic yacht after which the watch was named, and received a digital wallet. This included an NFT artwork, by Skygolpe, which unlocked exclusive content, services, events and offers.

“We wanted to add this NFT to bring added value to customers to say we will connect with you before the experience starts, during the experience, and after the experience.,” says Pontroué. “The NFT is a modern platform to connect people who love our brand.”

Panerai, which is owned by Richemont, plans to give every watch a digital passport next year. This is something Breitling has done since 2020 to allow owners to prove a watch’s authenticity, as well as access the warranty programme.

Both watchmakers have partnered with Arianee, a French company that helps brands to create and distribute NFTs and leverage the tokens. Pierre-Nicolas Hurstel, Arianee chief executive, calls it “a new loyalty tool”.

It transforms the relationship between brands and communities, he says, because the customer keeps control of their data. At the same time, the brand regains control of its digital presence as it no longer has to rely on platforms such as Instagram to reach customers.

“The overarching goal is to build a decentralised database of owners that you can then engage thanks to the mechanisms of NFTs, to whom you can offer a seamless journey across [digital, physical and immersive] channels,” Hurstel says.

In March, Bulgari launched the Octo Finissimo Ultra, the world’s thinnest mechanical watch, which is limited to just 10 pieces. Each watch has a QR code on the barrel’s ratchet wheel which gives the owner access to an NFT artwork. They can also access a virtual 3D tour of the movement and practical data such as the maintenance logbook.

Two necklaces in the latest high jewellery collection, Bulgari Eden, the Gardens of Wonders, have QR codes that link to NFT artworks. The house also revealed the digital-only Beyond Wonder, its “first NFT jewel”, at the same time.

Babin says the challenge in expanding this technology is making the digital assets “really dynamic”. “But I believe that [with] this side of the metaverse we bind clients [to the brand] in a much more intimate, emotional, immersive way,” he says.

His first priority, however, is to create “more touch points” to reach potential clients as the metaverse opens the door to “better visibility” and a “broader audience”. He is conscious that, as a luxury brand, Bulgari has to be selective: its inroads will be “extremely beautiful”.

Last year, the Bulgari Colors exhibition attracted nearly 50,000 people in Seoul, South Korea. More than 10,000 people downloaded an app to experience a virtual-reality version of the show, in which users could style an avatar and explore pieces on display.

Users of Drest, a fashion game, could style a Kate Moss avatar with pieces from the supermodel’s high jewellery collection with Messika. The jeweller joined the app for two weeks this year to build brand awareness and nearly 4mn people saw the content.

“There are more and more younger people who are rich, and they want to know new brands, and this new generation has a new way of living, a new way of consuming [content],” says Valérie Messika, the founder of the French diamond house.

Ghose also points to the “huge amount of wealth generation in the technology industry” that luxury brands may wish to target, people who are “digitally native” and either invested or interested in the metaverse.

He says there is a lot of behind-the-scenes experimentation as companies adapt their digital strategies. “Ignoring [the metaverse] is going to be very dangerous in three years’ time,” he says.