FT : The driverless car revolution is stuck in the slow lane

The driverless car revolution is stuck in the slow lane
There is still no consensus on how autonomous vehicles should work

The hype cycle of driverless cars is on yet another depressing downswing. Last week, Tesla boss Elon Musk admitted that full self-driving software was not yet ready to be used without someone sitting behind the wheel. Mobileye, Intel’s autonomous driving unit, cut its valuation expectation from $50bn down to $16bn. Multiple media outlets have published stories mocking the sector for its failings after billions of dollars of investment.

The peculiar thing is that this has all happened just as robotaxis arrive on the streets of San Francisco. For $10 or so, you can catch a driverless car from the famous Painted Ladies on Alamo Square to the bars of Nob Hill, watching from the back seat as the wheel turns itself to manoeuvre the car through traffic.

The test scheme was launched by Cruise, an autonomous vehicle business that is majority owned by General Motors. Like Uber, it has an app that you can use to call a car to meet you. Prices are similar too, though presumably the rides should be cheaper if it takes off.

It is disconcerting to see a driverless car pull up beside you and listen as a robotic voice tells you to put on a seatbelt and enjoy your ride. But every journey I have taken has been perfectly smooth. The cars are cautious drivers when they spot obstacles, which is very reassuring for nervous passengers. This could also be why there have been reports of cars stuck in the road and blocking traffic. After a crash with a speeding vehicle, Cruise recalled its robotaxis and updated the software. It now plans to expand the scheme to Austin and Phoenix.

Hailing a driverless car to get from one part of town to another feels like living in the future. It can sometimes seem as if all the money in tech is being poured into digital advertising, cryptocurrencies and consumer apps. Live in San Francisco for long enough your phone will fill up with apps for every conceivable convenience. But autonomous vehicles, an ambitious, difficult and potentially life changing sector, offer a more tangible example of tech progress.

It has been an outrageously expensive endeavour, of course. McKinsey put the total invested at over $100bn since 2010. Last year alone, funding into autonomous vehicle companies exceeded $12bn, according to CB Insights.

Development has been much slower than expected too. The dream of driverless cars has been around for almost as long as the automobile itself. The modern era can be dated back to Google’s self-driving project, now Waymo, which began in 2009. By the time I arrived in San Francisco in 2018 it seemed as if driverless cars would surely be on every road in a matter of months. Uber claimed that it would soon do away with human drivers while Waymo and Lyft were launching robotaxi schemes in Phoenix and Las Vegas. Everyone from SoftBank to Apple was investing in autonomous vehicles.

Since then, however, the sector’s fortunes have waned. The same year, an Uber self-driving car killed a woman who was crossing the street in Arizona. Tests were stopped and optimism collapsed. Two years later Uber sold its driverless car unit to local start-up Aurora.

The challenge remains substantial. Driverless cars do not just have to control the mechanics of a vehicle, they have to understand the world around them and make rapid decisions when circumstances change. There is still no consensus on how they should work either. Cruise maps the roads it drives by mixing road data collected by both cameras and lidar — laser-based sensors. Tesla has called lidar a “crutch”. 

If it was possible to build the infrastructure for driverless cars from scratch things would be simpler. Roads are busy and messy. They are full of different users making irrational decisions. Cars must not just see the obstacle ahead but know whether it is about to move and, if so, in what direction.

Cruise’s robotaxi test is a fairly conservative one. The cars can only drive between 10pm and 5.30am. If I want to show visitors the wonders of autonomous vehicles I have to wait for night-time and make sure I’m in the right part of the city.

Still, the money keeps coming. Either driverless cars are an example of sunk cost fallacy or their slow start is not seen as a hindrance to eventual adoption. Uber has signed a deal with Motional — the start-up that works with Lyft to offer autonomous vehicle rides in Vegas. Volkswagen’s automotive software subsidiary Cariad is investing $2bn in a partnership with Chinese chipmaker Horizon Robotics. Waymo is planning to expand its robotaxi service to Los Angeles and Cruise hopes to get regulatory approval for robotaxis without pedals or steering wheels.

It has been a slow and expensive road. It may still be years before the cars are widespread. But for many of the biggest companies in the world, driverless vehicles are still inevitable.

FT : Price of rich red wine to soar as UK abandons duty freeze

Price of rich red wine to soar as UK abandons duty freeze
Growers and importers warn that consumers will pay the price for tax changes that penalise stronger drinks

Prices for some of Britain’s favourite rich red wines are set to soar, growers and importers have warned, after ministers reversed plans to freeze duty rates ahead of an alcohol duty overhaul that will penalise stronger drinks.

The UK Treasury last month announced in its “mini” Budget a revamp of duty rules that will increase the payments due on most wines, including almost all reds, from August 2023.

New chancellor Jeremy Hunt subsequently scrapped a separate temporary freeze that would have protected duty on all types of alcohol from inflation-linked rises. Hunt’s change aims to save the public purse £600mn a year.

The scrapped freeze means that duty on wine will increase in February in line with inflation and again in August, with the earlier increase feeding through to bigger rises that growers had expected in August.

Hal Wilson, co-founder of Cambridge Wine Merchants in the UK, said: “We will see massive [price] increases on naturally made wines that are 14.5 per cent, 15 per cent. These come from Spain, Portugal, Australia, South Africa, Chile, North America, France.”

Wilson said the additional costs, in addition to Brexit-related paperwork, would deter some growers from selling into the UK market. “It’s a great market, and big, and people want to be in the market but we’re hearing from the Australians that there is a limit to how much money they’re prepared to lose.”

The changes will tip the typical price of a bottle of red wine produced in Australia over the £10 mark, a key level in the “price sensitive” UK market, said Richie Vandenberg, chief executive of South Australia’s Limestone Coast Winery. He said higher duty rates come at a time of “extraordinary input pressure and inflation” for growers.

The new pricing could unintentionally drive consumers toward lower quality wines or “ready-to-drink” wine-based products and away from “the big rich red wines which people love in the UK”, he said. “Ultimately the people that will pay for it are the punters.”

Australia’s wine growers had hoped that a new free trade agreement with the UK signed last year would help fill an export void left by China’s imposition of punitive tariffs in 2020. Limestone Coast, a bulk supplier that operates The Hidden Sea brand, is one of the country’s largest exporters and had hoped the trade deal would reduce the cost of its wine for British consumers while improving margins for growers.

Wine producers and trade groups have warned the UK government that the potential £26mn benefit for Australia’s wine growers from the agreement will be wiped out by an additional £70mn in costs related to the tax changes.

The duty overhaul to take effect in August 2023 will charge higher rates on drinks with a higher proportion of alcohol by volume, with lower rates for less alcoholic beverages, a system backed by health campaigners.

A bottle of wine at 14.5 per cent alcohol by volume is set to incur 58p more duty by February 2025, according to data from the UK’s Wine and Spirit Trade Association (WSTA), before adding the extra administrative costs of handling the different tax bands and broader inflation, which includes a steep rise in prices for glass bottles.

A temporary rate will apply to wines between 11.5 per cent and 14.5 per cent for the first 18 months after that, before the full new duty scheme, with 27 bands for wine, takes effect.

Port will also rise steeply in price, said Steve Moody, managing director of Fells wine distributors, with a duty rise of more than £1 a bottle from next August. “We could lose 10 per cent, maybe 15 per cent, of the volume from the category overnight,” he said.

Tony Battaglene, chief executive of trade body Australian Grape and Wine, said it was “disappointing” that the UK had persevered with the changes to duties, especially as it is the largest export market for Australian wine by volume.

Miles Beale, chief executive of the WSTA, said the increased tariffs would “make the UK a much less attractive destination for most [overseas] wines”, adding that “wine is the only [alcoholic] product that can’t dictate its strength. Its ABV [alcohol by volume] is all down to the sun.”

FT : US strong enough to avoid recession, says Biden economic adviser

US strong enough to avoid recession, says Biden economic adviser
Brian Deese brushes off fears that raising interest rates to fight inflation will stamp out the recovery

Joe Biden’s top economic adviser said the US economy had the “strength and resilience” to shield it from a recession, brushing off growing concerns that steep interest rate increases designed to fight inflation will quash the expansion.

Brian Deese, the director of the White House’s National Economic Council, spoke to the Financial Times as economists and chief executives are increasingly warning that the world’s largest economy will experience a downturn next year on the back of global weakness and much tighter monetary policy.

But the Biden administration is sticking to its view that the US will experience a form of “soft landing” with a shift to slower growth rather than a deep contraction, and a cooling of job growth rather than mass lay-offs.

“If we look at where the United States are, two things are clear. One is that we have a degree of strength and resilience in the labour market and household balance sheets and in business investment. That is continuing to move our economy forward, and that’s really important,” Deese said.

“The second is that we are in a stronger position than . . . frankly, any other country to navigate through this transition without having to give up those gains.”

Deese spoke ahead of midterm elections early next month with polls showing Republicans poised to regain control of the House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. He dismisses surveys showing that US voters disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy. “I’m a believer that good economic policy ultimately makes good politics because you know, people are quite sensible,” Deese said.

The Federal Reserve has ploughed ahead with large 0.75 percentage point rate rises — with a fourth consecutive increase of that size slated for early November — but the US economy has not suffered a big hit from the monetary tightening. Interest-rate sensitive sectors like housing have slowed considerably, but other segments of the economy have shown surprising resilience.

So far this year, monthly jobs growth has averaged 420,000 positions. Still a healthy clip, that is down from 562,000 a month in 2021.

Inflation, meanwhile, continues to run rampant, with consumer price growth accelerating again last month to bring the annual rate for the “core” measure — which strips out volatile items such as food and energy — to 6.6 per cent.

Traders in futures markets for the federal funds rate expect it to peak at 5 per cent next year, suggesting further large rate rises this year and early next. Fed officials are set to begin discussing how to slow the pace of its rate rises while committing to keep rates at a level that restrains the economy for some time.

Jay Powell, the chair of the Fed, last month warned that the higher rates rise and the longer they stay at a restrictive level, the lower the odds the Fed can get inflation under control without causing significant economic pain.

“No one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,” he said.

But most economists now expect the world’s largest economy to tip into a recession in 2023 as job losses mount.

Gregory Daco, chief economist at EY Parthenon, forecasts a 0.7 per cent contraction in growth next year, with the labour market shedding 2.8mn jobs and unemployment rising to 5.5 per cent. That is 2 percentage points higher than its current level. Other economists say it is more likely the unemployment rate will top 6 per cent.

Several high-profile US business leaders, including David Solomon of Goldman Sachs, Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase, and Jeff Bezos, the executive chair of Amazon, have expressed their own concerns about a possible recession.

“The probabilities in this economy tell you to batten down the hatches,” Bezos wrote on Twitter this week.

Meanwhile, the IMF this month downgraded its own estimate of the US economic outlook, forecasting that output would be flat this year and grow by just 1 per cent next year, after a 5.5 per cent burst in 2021.

Deese said that the White House was “very focused” and was spending “a lot of time” on “the global challenges that are out there” — whether it was the war in Ukraine or the impact of China’s slowdown.

But he said “policy choices matter” on the domestic side and Biden was trying to remain “focused on what are those things that we can do to try to keep . . . our prospects as strong as they can be”.

Miss Tweed : Coperni seeks path to stardom, AMI and Jacquemus fight for top spot

Coperni seeks path to stardom, AMI and Jacquemus fight for top spot

Coperni's spray-on dress
Everyone has heard about the spray-on dress. Supermodel Bella Hadid appears half-naked on stage, her hands covering her breasts. Two men in black gently spray her body with a white substance that solidifies into a dress. A woman moves forward and slits it up to mid-thigh. The video goes viral. The bold stunt pays off and the young fashion brand Coperni becomes a global celebrity overnight.

In terms of visibility, Coperni’s show beat megabrands with much deeper pockets. According to the data analysis firm Launchmetrics, Coperni’s spray-on dress generated $26.3 million in media impact value, as much as the announcement last month that Rihanna would perform at the coveted U.S. Super Bowl half-time show in February.

Is such a PR coup enough for brand to take off? It certainly helps, as Miss Tweed found out. Other elements, come into play, however, such asconsistency between the brand’s story, its designs, distribution and the price at which it sells its wares. When these factors are perfectly aligned and coupled with strong management and execution, success is guaranteed, fashion experts say.

“What’s amazing is that a small brand like Coperni can beat the biggest brands just with a good idea,” notes Lucien Pagès who represents Coperni as well as many other promising young fashion brands. “That is also what democracy is about.” During the pandemic in 2021, Coperni stood out as one of the few brands that organized a real physical fashion show, which it held after dark in a parking lot. Cars turned on their lights as the model approached them, producing a refreshing and original effect. Some turned their lights off to let the green-light emitting sunglasses worn by some of the models glow in the dark. Earlier this year, Coperni produced two models of futuristic-looking sunglasses with Korea’s super-trendy eyewear maker Gentle Monster.

GROWING THE BRAND

Thanks to the spray-on-dress, Coperni has become one of the most talked-about brands in the highly competitive fashion galaxy. Bankers are already speculating that its biggest shareholder and global license partner, the investment firm Tomorrow London, is going to be approached by big groups such as Kering and LVMH to help Coperni grow bigger faster.

For now, Tomorrow says it is not interested in raising more capital, (although we all know that it would say that for the record). Its view is that it wants to grow Coperni over a period of years. So why would it give up such a great success story? “Overnight success is (relatively!) easy to attain,” saidStefano Martinetto, CEO of Tomorrow, told Miss Tweed.“But to grow a brand takes considerable patience, awareness, and commitment. On this, we are completely aligned withArnaud Vaillant and Sebastien Meyer,” referring to Coperni’s two founders.

“As with any emerging brandthatcatches the rocketship of explosive growth, the biggest challenge is to manage that growth in a sustainable wayto ensure longevity for the mid- to longer-term,” said Martinetto . Vaillant, who worked at Balenciaga, is the CEO of Coperni. His strength is in products and business. Meyer, who graduated from the Mod’Art International fashion school, is more focused on designs. The pair launched Coperni in 2013.

The name comes from the astronomer Copernicus. After winning the prestigious Andam fashion prize in 2014, Coperni was put on hold. Meyer and Vaillant paused their new-born brand in 2015 to work for Courrèges, a fashion label founded in 1961 which is trying to resuscitate Artemis, the family office of the Pinault family which controls Gucci owner Kering. The pair stayed for only three years. In the autumn of 2018, they met Martinetto who encouraged them to develop their own brand and offered financial backing and mentoring.

MODERN AND MINIMALIST

Vaillant and Meyer, both in their early 30s, are obsessed with innovation, technology and the Silicon Valley and do a great job expressing that sensibility through their designs, fashion experts say. Coperni’s style is modern and minimalist. One of its bestsellers is the swipe bag, a narrow tote with an ovoid handle inspired by the airplane mode on/off toggle on iPhones, but vertical rather than horizontal. The swipe bag was presented in March 2019 as part of Coperni’s first “return” collection after its four-year hiatus. Bags represent a significant part of its business already, the brand said, but it is not the bulk of it. Footwear is also growing, and so is ready-to-wear.

Coperni does not have its own boutique yet but it “is clearly an option we are exploring,”Martinetto said. It nowdepends on wholesale partners. Online, these include Ssense, MyTheresa and Net-A-Porter, and offline it works with department stores Neiman Marcus, Printemps and Selfridges and a few concept stores such as Tom Greyhound in Paris. Turnover on Coperniparis.com is approaching 10 percent of total revenue and “is growing quickly as consumers want to engage directlywith the brand,” Martinetto said.

A CERTAIN UNIQUENESS

A smart idea is great but other things also come into play. “What is needed to succeed is a certain uniqueness in communication, in the product and in the design,” explains Yann Rivoallan, president of the French Federation of Women’s Ready-to-Wear who has spent much of his working life helping fashion brands build a presence online. “You also need a good quality distribution network at the operational level, whether it is online, in-store or both,” he told Miss Tweed at the Hyères fashion festival which took place in mid-October.

The two brands that tick all these boxes are Simon Porte Jacquemus and AMI Paris, usually referred to as AMI and Jacquemus. They are France’s most often cited success stories. As such, they have become rivals which industry observers follow closely. Both are around 12 years old. Both are led by talented designers who are natural communicators.

The first is led by Simon Jacquemus, 32, who is from the South of France and celebrateslavender fields, the sea, Marseille and its proximity to North Africa. The brand appeals to young women with ties to those regions and there are many of them in France.

AMI,known for its Ami de Coeur logo,a heart atop of the letter A, is a shortened version of the designer’s name Alexandre Mattiussi.AMI is about Paris and France north of the Loire, says Vincent Grégoire of the Paris-based consultancy NellyRodi. “It is a more bourgeois, more cerebral brand. Unlike Jacquemus, it does not risk taking a stand on diversity.”

AMI and Jacquemus enjoy formidable growth. The two brands, which made tens of millions of euros a few years ago, are both projected to generate more than €200 million in sales by the end of this year. Yet their business models are quite different, as are their strategies.

Jacquemus makes 73 percent of its turnover online. Some 33 percent comes from online wholesalers and 40 percent from on its own website, which has been up and running from day one when the brand was launched in 2010. Back then, Jacquemus won immediate fame by staging a mock protest on Vogue Fashion Night (when luxury boutiques in Paris opened late) with supporters screaming his name and holding banners saying “Jacquemus en grève” (“Jacquemus on strike”) on the French capital’s chic Avenue Montaigne. Among them was the model and friend Jeanne Damas, who six years later would launch her own Rouje fashion brand.

Jacquemus opened its first stand-alone pop-up boutique at the end of September – just at the start of Paris Fashion Week – on Avenue Montaigne, where it all began. It is sandwiched between Gucci and Dolce & Gabbana. The brand plans to rent the space for six months to test demand and sell-through at full price. It does not want to commit yet to a bricks-and-mortar boutique. However, it will at some point.

CHINA CLOSED

AMI is the opposite of Jacquemus in its retail strategy. It has been frantically opening boutiques in the past 18 months, thanks to cash injected by Sequoia Capital China, the Asian arm of California’s Sequoia investment company which has made a fortune backing companies such as Cisco, PayPal and YouTube. The investment in AMI is the first overseas investment for the Chinese venture capital firm which has invested in Chinese Internet behemoths JD.com, Alibaba and Tencent. At the time the deal was announced in January 2021, no financial details were disclosed aside from the fact that AMI had made €50 million in sales in 2020.

CEO Nicolas Santi-Weiland Mattiussi retained minority stakeswhile the private equity firmNeo Investment Partners, which had sold its majority holding to Sequoia, kept a stake in the brand.AMI said itexpected sales this year to double after having reached €133 million in 2021.

It now has 32 boutiques worldwide and more than 715 points of sale at wholesalers. Earlier this month, it opened a boutique in Seoul, South Korea. To promote it, and flag its presence to Koreans, it organized a high-profile show at the city’s landmark Gwanghwamun Square, with performances by K-pop stars and attended by traditional brand ambassadors such as French actress Isabelle Adjani. In China, AMI has three stores in Shanghai and boutiques in four other cities including Chengdu andNanjing. However, the timing of AMI’s Chinese expansion has been unfortunate: much of China has been closed this year because of a resurgence in Covid cases. It may have to wait a while before it reaps returns from such significant investments in this crucial market.

By contrast, Simon Jacquemus still owns 100 percent of his fashion company - a remarkable achievement. The brand was so successful that many industry observers speculated LVMH was backing the brand. This turned out not to be true. As Miss Tweed was first to report in May, Jacquemus expects sales to reach €500 million in two-to-three years. Jacquemus is on track to become one of France’s first major fashion unicorns, private companies valued at more than US$1 billion. It has come a long way considering its turnover was€50 million in2019 andaround €25 million four years ago – the level where Coperni is roughly now.

STRONG IN LEATHER GOODS

Another important difference between AMI and Jacquemus is that the latteris much stronger in leather goods. AMI still sells mostly ready-to-wear. One of Jacquemus’s bestsellers is the trapezoid-shaped Chiquito bag, which starts at a couple of hundred euros for the smallest version and can cost up to nearly €1,000. However, it has been raising prices in the past year as part of the brand’s elevation strategy. Jacquemus’s biggest markets are France,the United States and the United Kingdom.Ithas not yet set foot in China and is not hurrying to do so. Thishasturned out to bea blessing considering how many fashion brands have suffered with shops closing because ofthe country’s strict zero Covid policy.

To take Jacquemus to the next level, CEO BastienDaguzan,38, who officially started in May after working undercover for the brand since its early days,will need to hire talented retailers.Daguzan previously led Puig’s Paco Rabanne brand and before that was CEO of Lemaire.

The team around him and Simon Jacquemus are dynamic and creative but many are in their 20s and relatively inexperienced, industry sources say. If Jacquemus is to conquer the world, Daguzan will need to hire professionals to open stores around the world in good locations.However, the designer is certainly doing a great job staying in the news and controlling his image while appearing accessible.

Last August, he granted exclusive coverage of his wedding to Vogue France. Guests, many of them dressed in Jacquemus, were asked to leave their mobile phones at the door.“Jacquemus has mediatized his personal life,” explains Vincent Grégoire from NellyRodi. “This is why he appears to be very accessible.”

Like Simon Jacquemus, Mattiussi also comes across as genial and warm. And he is also a good communicator. Many remember the originality of the launch of his men’s wear line in a Paris bar. However, some critics say that years later they no longer understand what the brand stands for. AMI started with well-designed basic designs for men such as high-quality coats. Later, it branched out into women’s wear and critics say its designs are no longer unique or recognizable. “I am not really sure what is the brand’s story today,” an influential Paris-based senior fashion consultant told Miss Tweed, declining to be identified. “Before, it really had that refreshing take on men’s wear, it told something different. Now it sells lamé dresses to Asian girls which every brand can do. So, what does AMI stand for today?”

Well, the brand sells Paris now, or certain stereotypical images of the French capital – clearly targeting the Asian customer. That’s its main message. Earlier this year, AMI staged a show in Paris at the Sacré Coeur basilica, opened by French actress Audrey Tautou who was struggling to keep her balance as she strutted on high heels past the guests. On the front row sat actress Catherine Deneuve, singer Carla Bruni (wife of former French president Nicolas Sarkozy) and Isabelle Adjani - all celebrities past their prime who do not necessarily connect with the younger generation, fashion observers say.

AMI may be in the process of conquering the world but it risks losing some Parisian customers along the way. The competition between AMI and Jacquemus is bound to intensify. One has its eye on Asia, the other stays focused on the West. Who will win? Place your bets. It will be an interesting story to follow.

WWD : The October 2022 Guide to the Best Places in London

The October 2022 Guide to the Best Places in London
From what to see to what to watch, and where to eat.

Theo Fraser Steele in "A Single Man"; Chef Santiago Lastra’s KOL restaurant; "Two Men," 1987-88, Lucian Freud.

London is having its busiest period this fall: a state funeral; one big London Fashion Week, as well as a mini one; the Frieze Art Fair, and the BFI London Film Festival. The city is still jam-packed with multicultural offerings, from Israeli food, Iranian art to real stories told onstage.
Where to Eat
Miznon
Celebrity Israeli chef Eyal Shani is bringing his restaurant chain Miznon to London.
COURTESY OF MIZNON
Celebrity Israeli chef Eyal Shani is bringing his restaurant chain Miznon to London, after expanding in Paris; Vienna, Austria; Melbourne, Australia, and New York. The concept is an easy one: food for all, just as you would find in any Middle Eastern home. The menu includes roasted cauliflower and broccoli; ratatouille on tahini; lamb kebab; thin slices of rib eye steak, and more. Shani is about to become a name about town, the same way Yotam Ottolenghi has.

Milk Beach
A taste of Australia in London’s Soho.
COURTESY OF MILK BEACH
A taste of Australia in London’s Soho and Queen’s Park. The restaurant serves brunch all day featuring a heavy seafood menu, from kingfish crudo to a yellow monkfish and mussels curry. At the Queen’s Park branch, the parasol outside adds to the Aussie ambience.
Zēphyr
London’s Notting Hill is getting the Greek treatment with Zēphyr.
COURTESY OF ZĒPHYR
London’s Notting Hill is getting the Greek treatment with Zēphyr, a new restaurant from the Pachamama group whose other locations dish out Peruvian food. The venture is named after the Greek god of the west wind, which aptly fits the west London location. Greek South American chef John Skotidas is heading up the kitchen serving up tarama, a cod roe emulsion; soutzoukakia, spiced mince beef with cumin yogurt; crispy potato terrine, and Loukoumades, fluffy sweet honey balls that are the Greek version of doughnuts.
KOL
KOL is Mexican food not as you know it.
COURTESY OF KOL / CHARLIE MCKAY
KOL is Mexican food not as you know it. Chef Santiago Lastra’s concept restaurant is all about “simple flavors in bold combinations,” made with British ingredients. The autumn dishes on the menu include chicharrón with wild mushrooms; carnitas, which translates to little meats, using confit pork cheek, and elote, a sweetcorn cake with buttermilk ice cream and fig leaf. The restaurant has its own online store that stocks wine and mezcal.
What to See
Keeping It Surreal: Objects of Desire
The weird and wonderful is taking place at the Design Museum.
COURTESY OF DESIGN MUSEUM
The weird and wonderful is taking place at the Design Museum, which has been curated with the Vitra Design Museum. “Keeping It Surreal: Objects of Desire” tracks the movement of surrealism from 1924 to the present day featuring more than 300 objects on display, including Dalí’s Lobster Telephone and Man Ray’s The Gift (Le Cadeau). A part of the exhibition will focus on fashion’s relationship with surrealism demonstrated by pieces such as Daniel Roseberry’s contemporary take on Elsa Schiaparelli’s design and Maria Grazia Chiuri’s Salvador Dalí ensemble for Dior.
The Credit Suisse Exhibition Lucian Freud: New Perspectives
“Two Men,” 1987-88 by Lucian Freud (1922-2011); 106.7×75 cm; National Galleries of Scotland, Edinburgh; (Scottish National Gallery of Modern Art, Edinburgh, UK); © National Galleries of Scotland.
BRIDGEMAN IMAGES
The National Gallery has staged seven decades of Lucian Freud’s work, starting with his early pieces such as “Girl with Roses” from the 1940s; “Reflection With Two Children” in the 1960s, through to the 2001 portrait of Queen Elizabeth II. The exhibition includes more than 60 loans from museums and major private collections around the world.

Soheila Sokhanvari: Rebel Rebel
The Love Addict (Portrait of Googoosh), 2019 © Soheila Sokhanvari. Courtesy of the artist and Kristin Hjellegjerde gallery.
COURTESY OF THE BARBICAN
The Barbican is hosting the first major U.K. commission by an Iranian artist. Soheila Sokhanvari’s show explores the lives of Iranian women between 1925 and the 1979 revolution. It’s a celebration of womanhood in 31 portraits, where all the subjects are captured with their hair uncovered.
The Horror Show!
Jake and Dinos Chapman, “Return of the Repressed 3,” 1997 2007.
COURTESY OF SOMERSET HOUSE
Somerset House is presenting the phenomenon of horror in three acts: “Monster,” “Ghost,” and “Witch,” with more than 200 works that examine how the genre has transformed in the last 50 years. The images on display look at the disruption of 1970s punk; modern witchcraft, and the global financial crisis of 2008. The artists used in the exhibition include Judy Blame, Leigh Bowery, David Shrigley, Marisa Carnesky, and more.
What to Watch
A Single Man
Theo Fraser Steele in “A Single Man.”
MICHAEL WHARLEY
Christopher Isherwood’s 1964 novel “A Single Man” is getting a West End stage take at the Park Theatre. It has the same premise as Tom Ford’s film, following college professor George as he grieves the death of his long-term partner, Jim. Theo Fraser Steele is set to play the main role and in November he will be starring in Netflix’s “The Crown,” as Princess Anne’s second husband, Timothy Laurence.
Light of Passage
“Light of Passage” will be performed at The Royal Opera House.
COURTESY OF THE ROYAL OPERA HOUSE
Critically acclaimed choreographer Crystal Pite is returning to The Royal Opera House for “Light of Passage,” based on her Olivier Award-winning ballet “Flight Pattern,” which is based on the refugee crisis. Pite has worked with the likes of the Paris Opera Ballet, the National Ballet of Canada and Nederland Dans Theater.
The Boy With Two Hearts
Brothers Hamed & Hessam Amiri are sharing their real-life experiences on stage at The National Theatre.
COURTESY OF THE NATIONAL THEATRE
Brothers Hamed & Hessam Amiri are sharing their real-life experiences on stage at The National Theatre. Their family fled Herat, Afghanistan, in 2000 after their mother spoke out against the Taliban. The family escaped their home by way of Russia and through Europe until seeking refuge in the U.K., by which the eldest son’s life-threatening heart condition worsens.

Tammy Faye
Elton John during the rehearsals for “Tammy Faye.”
MARC BRENNER / COURTESY OF ALMEIDA THEATRE
Elton John is spreading the gospel of Tammy Faye and Jim Bakker at London’s Almeida Theatre with a new musical about the couple that preached to millions of people 24 hours a day from their South Carolina studio. The true story is directed by the theater’s artistic director Ruper Goold. The Hollywood production “The Eyes of Tammy Faye,” starring Jessica Chastain and Andrew Garfield, won two Academy Awards in 2022.

WWD : Brunello Cucinelli Shares Soar on Back of Strong Nine-month Results

Brunello Cucinelli Shares Soar on Back of Strong Nine-month Results
The year 2022 is expected to be a record one for the company.

MILAN — Brunello Cucinelli shares climbed all day on Thursday, closing up 10.15 percent at 57.50 euros on the Milan Stock Exchange, following the release of strong nine-month figures the evening before and forecasting a record 2022. Shares over the past year have gained 17.68 percent and 13.3 percent in the past six months.

The Italian luxury company reported a 27.7 percent increase in revenues to 642 million euros in the nine months ended Sept. 30, compared with the same period last year.

On top of that, relying on its strong manufacturing pipeline, Cucinelli expects a 25 percent increase in revenues for the year and a 10 percent gain in the top line for 2023 based on the order intake for the men’s and women’s spring 2023 collections.

The company is poised to double sales ahead of its 10-year plan revealed in 2019 and introduced a new five-year plan beginning in 2023, considering 2022 a “non-linear year.”

Equity analysts Flavio Cereda and Kathryn Parker at Jefferies in their report stated that, “We continue to believe that [Brunello Cucinelli] is entitled to high multiples versus most peers,” and that revenues beat their expectations. The performance “validates our view that its unique brand profile at the top end is likely to be a safe haven” and rated Cucinelli shares as a “buy.” “Current trends look like a doubling of sales in six years versus the original stated assumption of 10.”

Cereda and Parker expressed their belief that Cucinelli’s “very resilient customer profile, category and geographical expansion opportunities will allow” the company to secure growth “but above all retain its unique characteristics that continue to distinguish it from all other players.” Jefferies estimated 2024 revenues to reach near 1.1 billion euros “and see no reason why 1.5 billion euros should not be comfortably achieved within five years.”

The namesake Cucinelli entrepreneur said he expects 2022 to be a record year and one of “total rebalancing, and along with the strong advancement in revenue after the pandemic period, we expect margins to completely rebalance, returning to ‘normal’ levels pre-pandemic.”

Growth in all markets and in the company’s retail and wholesale channels, as well as increases in both the women’s and men’s divisions, now representing almost a 50/50 balance, contributed to the strong nine-month performance.

WWD : L’Oréal’s Growth Streak Continues

L’Oréal’s Growth Streak Continues
Despite continuing to outperform the global beauty market in the three months ended Sept. 30, there were signs of weakening for the L’Oréal Luxe activity.

PARIS — L’Oréal continued its acceleration, registering third-quarter sales 20 percent above pre-pandemic levels and outperforming analyst expectations for the three months ended Sept. 30, despite a slowdown in growth for its Luxe division and ongoing difficulties in China.

The world’s largest beauty group on Thursday reported total sales of 9.58 billion euros for the three months ended Sept. 30, which represented a 19.7 percent year-on-year gain in reported terms and an increase of 9.1 percent on a like-for-like basis.

“In a context of unprecedented volatility, marked by the public health restrictions in China and inflation in the Western world, L’Oréal achieved a very solid quarter, continuing at a steady pace of growth compared to 2019,” said Nicolas Hieronimus, L’Oréal chief executive officer, in a statement released after the closure of the Paris Bourse.

“L’Oréal continues to shine,” wrote Bernstein analyst Bruno Monteyne in a research note. “What is remarkable is that L’Oréal still delivers double-digit organic growth, even when China doesn’t grow, confirming the success of its diversification across regions, across divisions and across price points.”

In a global beauty market that was up 6 percent in value in the first nine months of the year, L’Oréal’s sales gained 12 percent, Hieronimus told analysts during a conference call. The group benefited from its efforts to rebalance its geographic footprint and from exchange-rate effects, it said. It registered double-digit growth in all regions except North Asia and saw balanced gains across its divisions, all of which outperformed the beauty market overall, L’Oréal reported.

Nevertheless, the L’Oréal Luxe division, which includes brands such as Kiehl’s, Yves Saint Laurent and Biotherm, underperformed expectations. Its sales came in at 3.61 billion euros, an increase of 15.8 percent in reported terms and 4.6 percent on an organic basis, L’Oréal stated, numbers that Jefferies analyst Molly Wylenzek described as “well below expectations” — and below the results of its category peers, including LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton.

The division was penalized by the Chinese lockdowns, weaker than anticipated performance in the U.S., with the exception of fragrance, and sourcing difficulties, notably for scent bottles.

For perfumes, Hieronimus said during the call, L’Oréal’s growth continues to outpace the market, with sales up 28 percent year-to-date compared with a market up 16 percent. “We would have had an even better performance in [the third quarter] had we had all the glass bottles we needed,” he commented. Looking forward, Hieronimus said, the division will focus on “allocating our capacities to the best performing brands.” Addressing issues for the Luxe activity in the U.S., Hieronimus admitted, “We could have done more from the innovation side….It’s in our hands, we just have to do it.”

One major bright spot for L’Oréal’s portfolio in the third quarter was its mass-market Consumer Products division, where reported sales were up 19.1 percent, or 10 percent on an organic basis, to reach 3.55 billion euros. Driven by its premiumization strategy as well as by price increases, the division’s performance was particularly strong in emerging markets, L’Oréal said, including “spectacular gains” in India and Mexico, as well as “solid growth” in the U.S. and Europe.

The Active Cosmetics division saw third-quarter sales leap 38.8 percent year-on-year in reported terms to 1.32 billion euros, a rise of 26 percent on an organic basis. Professional Products revenues, at 1.09 billion euros, gained 15.7 percent in reported terms and 4.3 percent like-for-like.

“All in all, the beauty market has grown in [the third quarter] at the same pace as it has done in the first half of the year, despite all the perturbations…the continuous difficulties in China with lockdowns that…we had not anticipated, all the more as they were simultaneously happening in Hainan and mainland China, [and] inflation in Europe,” Hieronimus said.

For the Chinese domestic market, said group chief financial officer Christophe Babule, L’Oréal’s sellout in the third quarter was up 6.7 percent compared with an overall market that was down 4.7 percent, numbers that were roughly stable compared with the first half, and with all divisions except Consumer Products reporting gains.

With the all-important Singles’ Day campaigns fast approaching and China’s leading influencers now back online, “I hope that Double 11 will be a good vintage in a market that right now remains pretty chilly because of the lockdowns,” Hieronimus said.

For the third quarter, at 2.41 billion euros, L’Oréal’s sales in North Asia grew 11.3 percent in reported terms, but only 0.3 percent like-for-like.

In Europe, the group’s sales were up 12.1 percent in reported terms or 10.5 percent like-for-like, to 2.88 billion euros. With the exception of the U.K., the beauty firm is seeing no signs yet of consumers trading down. “As far as the slowdown in consumption or trading down…we don’t see any major changes with a few exceptions….In the U.K. where inflation is the highest…we see a little bit of trading down, people spacing their visits to the hairdresser, buying a bit less premium skin care,” Hieronimus said.

North American sales for the three-month period gained 27.7 percent in reported terms and 9.3 percent like-for-like to hit 2.82 billion euros. While the company had feared a slowdown Stateside early in the quarter, he added, consumers who had traveled abroad over the summer had returned strongly after the break. “When they came back to the U.S. in August and September, it was back to school, back to stylists and back to derms, so that was very positive.”

In the emerging markets of the South Asia-Pacific, Middle East, North Africa and sub-Saharan Africa [or SAPMENA-SSA] zone, revenues gained 41.5 percent, or 30 percent like-for-like, to 787.7 million euros, while in Latin America, high inflation helped drive sales up 36.5 percent in reported terms — or 16.2 percent like-for-like — to 675.6 million.

While inflation accounted for a large part of sales gains in the third quarter as price increases were implemented at all of the divisions, volume sales were also positive for all but the L’Oréal Luxe division, said Babule. By region, volumes were up everywhere except North Asia, he said. “Besides the price increase, we see that in most of our business, whether by region or by division, we are in positive territory in terms of volume.” In the U.S., Hieronimus said, “consumers are kind of getting used to this inflation situation and they are considering spending money on beauty favorably.”

In the first nine months of 2022, the group’s sales grew 20.5 percent on a reported basis and 12 percent like-for-like, to reach 27.94 billion euros.

WSJ : Grindr Public Listing Can’t Keep It Casual

Grindr Public Listing Can’t Keep It Casual
Gay-dating platform will probably get slow fade from investors in this market

Investors will soon be able to hook up with the world’s most-popular gay-dating platform. A merger with the special-purpose acquisition company Tiga Acquisition, announced in May, values Grindr at $2.1 billion and is expected to close by the end of the year. As with any SPAC merger, historical details on the business are slim. In online dating, though, a snapshot often says all you need to know.

Grindr’s popularity relative to its total market size is impressive. A study commissioned by Grindr estimates the size of the LGBTQ+ population as of 2021 was just about 7% of the global tally. Meanwhile, Grindr had amassed 601,000 paying users as of last year, according to its registration filing, about 40% of the number of paying users of Bumble, the No. 2 dating app after Tinder.

Granted, Grindr is no spring chicken, having been founded when the iPhone was in its infancy. Attitudes toward a Pinterest-like grid of mostly shirtless men, organized by satellite location data, might have been less enlightened at the time. The world has evolved, even as Grindr hasn’t changed much—for better or worse. The company says it still has no proprietary matching algorithm, and there is no Tinder-like swiping. The app is still a very “visual experience,” as creator Joel Simkhai described it to the New York Times in 2014. It is used to find instant community—romantic or otherwise—wherever users go.

LGBTQ+ daters have the potential to be a valuable bunch. Pew Research Center data shows dating-app use varies significantly by sexual orientation. While just 28% of straight adults had tried a dating app or site as of a 2019 survey of U.S. adults, 55% of lesbian, gay or bisexual adults had tried one. Perhaps because of its first-mover advantage, Grindr says it has an 85% brand awareness among gay, bisexual, transgender and queer people, and is the best-known gay-dating app among the general population.

It hasn’t paid much for this. Grindr’s registration statement shows sales and marketing expenses amounted to less than 1% of its overall revenue last year. Match Group and Bumble spent nearly 19% and 28% of their revenue, respectively, on selling and marketing expenses over the same period.

Chalk some of that difference up to size. While on pace potentially to expand its top line faster than its competitors this year, Grindr’s run rate as of June 30 implies the company will put up about $180 million in revenue this year. Wall Street is forecasting that Match Group will generate about $3.2 billion. Most dating-app companies have several brands under their umbrellas. Match, for example, has more than a dozen, but Grindr has remained something of a lone wolf in the dating space.

Which raises the question: If Grindr’s brand was so valuable, wouldn’t a bigger company have bought it by now?

The concern could be a matter of the company’s past missteps, including periods of third-party data sharing of sensitive information such as users’ HIV status and the selling of other user information including location—problems the company says it has long since remedied. Or it could be the more delicate nature of Grindr’s mission. Lingering stigma on being “out” on a dating app persists to varying degrees by location and culture, which could crimp expansion potential. It is worth noting that predominantly straight dating apps such as Match’s Tinder enjoy many LGBTQ+ users.

Perhaps the biggest unknown is how quickly Grindr can increase monetization. Well over a decade into its existence, Grindr had nearly 11 million monthly active users as of last year across 190 countries, but its paid penetration was still under 6%. By contrast, Bumble had about 9% paid penetration as of September 2020 in less than half the time.

Grindr will tell you it has only recently started pushing its monetization efforts with the introduction of a few a la carte paid features this year. But the app’s simplicity could be working against it financially. While you have to pay to message suitors on Tinder before matching, Grindr is a bit like a digital bar, where users can approach and message whomever they see at no cost. While you can pay to see more (and avoid ads), freemium users can see 100 local singles on Grindr. That seems plenty to work with, given that Grindr’s users already spend an average of over an hour a day on the app.

The public market might not welcome Grindr with open arms. Stock-market investors since 2015 have lost an average of 37% of their investment on SPACs a year after the merger through the end of September, The Wall Street Journal reported this month. Meanwhile, Match and Bumble have shed an average of 68% of their market values over the past year as tech stocks have taken a beating and economic pressures have called into question near-term growth of nonessential spending.

Grindr’s latest valuation implies it is worth 17% of the dating giant Match, despite having fewer than 4% of Match’s paid users as of the end of last year.

That mismatch could break some hearts on Wall Street.