(ZH) 30 House Dems Urge Dramatic Shift In Biden's Ukraine Policy: 'Get Serious A

30 House Dems Urge Dramatic Shift In Biden's Ukraine Policy: 'Get Serious About Diplomacy Or Risk Nuclear Miscalculation'

In a wholly unexpected development, given that until just yesterday any prominent person wishing to talk Ukraine peace plan possibilities or who expressed hope for a negotiated end to the war was denounced and shouted down as a 'Kremlin agent', a group of 30 House Democrats is now urging the Biden administration to pursue a diplomatic track with Moscow.

The Washington Post, which detailed the contents of a letter sent to President Biden by the Congressional Dems, underscored they are calling for the US to "dramatically shift" its strategy on the Ukraine war for the first time, with the grinding conflict now reaching the eight-month mark.

"The longer the war in Ukraine goes on, the greater the risk of escalation — to widespread, devastating effect," Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), who is leading the efforts for a comprehensive strategy shift, told the Washington Post. "We should have no illusions about the challenge ahead of us, but ... my colleagues and I are urging the Administration to engage in a proactive diplomatic push in an effort to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire."


Rep. Pramila Jayapal and other Progressive Democrats, via The Hill.
Crucially, it seems the past month of heightened nuclear rhetoric is actually waking up some of the politicians who appeared to be sleepwalking straight into "Armageddon" - as Biden's own ultra-alarming remarks on October 6 put it. Biden had said at the time before a Democratic audience at a New York fundraiser, "We’re trying to figure out what is Putin’s off-ramp? Where does he get off? Where does he find a way out?" And he then asserted of the Russian president, "He is not joking when he talks about potential use of tactical nuclear weapons or biological and chemical weapons."

The group of 30 Dems in their letter seize on some of these past warnings of stumbling into WW3, addressing Biden as follows...

Crucially, you achieved this while also maintaining that it is imperative to avoid direct military conflict with Russia, which would lead to "World War III, something we must strive to prevent." The risk of nuclear weapons being used has been estimated to be higher now than at any time since the height of the Cold War. Given the catastrophic possibilities of nuclear escalation and miscalculation, which only increase the longer this war continues, we agree with your goal of avoiding direct military conflict as an overriding national-security priority.

Given the destruction created by this war for Ukraine and the world, as well as the risk of catastrophic escalation, we also believe it is in the interests of Ukraine, the United States, and the world to avoid a prolonged conflict. For this reason, we urge you to pair the military and economic support the United States has provided to Ukraine with a proactive diplomatic push, redoubling efforts to seek a realistic framework for a ceasefire. This is consistent with your recognition that "there’s going to have to be a negotiated settlement here," and your concern that Vladimir Putin "doesn't have a way out right now, and I'm trying to figure out what we do about that."

Except that there really hasn't been much in the way of earnest "efforts" seeking a "realistic framework" for ceasefire for a long time - really not since the opening three months of the war, which left off with the Istanbul negotiations. One exceptional bright spot to come out of Istanbul, however, was the UN and Turkey-brokered grain export deal, which it should be noted has been hanging by a thread.

This new push for the US to get serious about the negotiating table comes after leading Republicans signaled that in a future GOP-led house, there would be no "blank check" writing for Ukraine, after the US has already pledged an unprecedented tens of billions of dollars. So now it seems a contingency of Democrats are bracing for that distinct possibility given the nearness of the November mid-terms.


"We are under no illusions regarding the difficulties involved in engaging Russia given its outrageous and illegal invasion of Ukraine," the Democrats’ letter continues.

"If there is a way to end the war while preserving a free and independent Ukraine, it is America’s responsibility to pursue every diplomatic avenue to support such a solution that is acceptable to the people of Ukraine."

And yet, Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky has vowed to never negotiate or compromise on ceding territory (apparently including Crimea), especially so long as Putin is still in power. But likely Washington alone has the power to push Zelensky to back off this maximalist stance. It seems some within Biden's party realize such an intractable posture in Kiev is recipe for a lose-lose escalation leading to catastrophe in the making.


Yet, so far those voices remain a minority. WaPo notes that despite the big Democratic Progressive names on the letter, including AOC, a major shift in administration policy in Ukraine remains unlikely for now. "The letter was signed by some of the best-known and most outspoken liberal Democrats in Congress, including Reps. Jamie Raskin (Md.), Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (N.Y.), Cori Bush (Mo.), Ro Khanna (Calif.) and Ilhan Omar (Minn.)," the report details.

Maybe the growing pressure from progressive anti-war activists had something to do with AOC doing some soul-searching on the Ukraine issue?...


WaPo concludes, "For now, their position remains a minority in the Democratic Party, which has overwhelmingly supported Biden’s denunciations of Russia and his spearheading of a global coalition to funnel massive support to Ukraine. Biden has framed the conflict as part of his broader view that the world is witnessing a historic confrontation between authoritarianism and democracy."

WSJ : Credit Suisse Nears Sale of Securitized-Products Group

Credit Suisse Nears Sale of Securitized-Products Group
Two bidding groups are vying for a unit that doesn’t fit the bank’s new shape

Credit Suisse Group AG CS 0.42% is racing to finalize the sale of a key unit, days before the beleaguered Swiss bank is set to give details of a revamp of its big Wall Street division.

The Swiss bank is selling billions of dollars worth of assets to help pay for a strategy change after a series of financial losses and scandals. It may still need additional capital to add comfort for investors that it can carry out plans to retreat from some businesses and countries that are no longer deemed core, analysts say.

The biggest disposal, now close to being completed, according to people familiar with that effort, is Credit Suisse’s CS 0.42% New York-based securitized-products group. The bank said in July it would sell all or part of the unit, which lends and trades in asset-backed financing markets.

Two bidding groups have emerged as the favorites for the business. One consortium includes bond manager Pacific Investment Management Co. and buyout firm Apollo Global Management Inc. In the second group, Centerbridge Partners has teamed with Martello Re Ltd., a life and reinsurance company, according to some of the people familiar with the effort.

Germany’s Allianz SE owns Pimco, while Massachusetts Mutual Life Insurance Co. is a minority investor in Martello Re. Centerbridge helped create the reinsurer and has an agreement to help manage its assets.

It couldn’t be learned whether the winning bidders would take over the entire unit with employees attached or take a majority stake in the business, for example, or what they might pay. Credit Suisse is updating investors on the and other strategic measures on Thursday, when it will also report third-quarter results.

The storied bank has been trying to find the right mix of businesses for a decade. It clung to a large Wall Street arm through earlier restructurings to avoid losing needed revenue. In July, amid a drought in deal making and other client transactions, new executives at the bank said it was time for hard decisions. They have been carving out units to sell and said costs must come down.

On Friday, Credit Suisse sold an 8.6% stake in funds distributor Allfunds Group for around $327 million and raised additional cash from a 30% stake in a fund manager. It put the Savoy Hotel in Zurich up for sale in recent weeks to raise potentially half a billion dollars.

Credit Suisse has been talking to investors about whether it needs additional capital. Among those considering investing are Saudi Arabia’s sovereign-wealth fund and some existing Credit Suisse shareholders, according to people familiar with the matter.

Credit Suisse’s restructuring is taking a page from other banks’ playbooks a decade ago, following the global financial crisis. Its main rival, UBS Group AG , pared back to be a wealth manager with a smaller investment bank competing in targeted areas. Now a group of former UBS executives are helping with the Credit Suisse cleanup, including Credit Suisse’s chairman and chief executive. They said earlier restructurings didn’t go deep enough.

In addition to selling the securitized-products group, Credit Suisse will exit from more than two dozen smaller wealth markets and put some assets in a resolution unit, The Wall Street Journal previously reported.

>>> US After Hours Summary: WEBR +24% on BDT Capital offering to acquire the com

After Hours Summary: WEBR +24% on BDT Capital offering to acquire the company; MEDP +20.2% on earnings and upbeat FY23 guidance; AAN +16.4% on earnings; CCK -16.5% on earnings miss and weak guidance

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: MEDP +20.2%, AAN +16.4%, ARI +13.2%, XM +9.9%, ADTN +7.4%, CALX +6%, ARE +5%, BRO +1.4%, CDNS +0.6%, AGNC +0.4%, RRC +0.3%, HXL +0.1%, AIN +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: WEBR +24% (BDT Capital offers to acquire WEBR at $6.25/share in cash), TM +4.9% (considering rebooting EV strategy, according to Reuters), COOK +4.3% (trading higher in sympathy with WEBR), FLR +1.8% (awarded contract for Canada diesel project), LAUR +1% (approves special cash dividend), HESM +0.4% (increases quarterly dividend), PCVX +0.2% (commences public offering of common stock)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CCK -16.5%, ZION -6.6%, WRB -5%, CR -3.7%, TBI -2.9%, DFS -2.3%, PKG -1.5%, SSD -0.1%, CADE -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: UEC -1.5% (stock offering by selling shareholders), AMZN -0.8% (freezes hiring in parts of AWS, according to NYPost), AVDL -0.7% (presents new data), BILL -0.3% (adds Google Cloud CMO to Board), FICO -0.1% (FICO Score 10 T validated)

>>> US CLose Dow +1,34% S&P +1,19% Nasdaq +0,86% Russell +0,35%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The stock market logged sizable gains today, building on last week's rally. The day started on a mixed note, however, with the major averages oscillating around the flat line as the 10-yr Treasury note yield tested the 4.30% level. Selling quickly subsided in the Treasury market and stocks built upside momentum. The S&P 500, which slipped below 3,500 on October 13, briefly traded above 3,800 before ending just below that level.

The 10-yr note yield ultimately settled up two basis points to 4.23%. The 2-yr note yield fell three basis points to 4.48%.

Notably, the stock market held up pretty well even as the 10-yr note yield reached its session high. Market participants remain drawn to the notion that the Fed could take a less aggressive rate-hike approach in December and beyond. Today's weak preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI data for October from IHS Markit supported this thinking.

Many stocks came along for the rally, which left nine of the 11 S&P 500 sectors in positive territory. Health care (+1.9%) held the top spot while materials (-0.6%) fell to the bottom.

One notable area of weakness was Chinese stocks and U.S. stocks with high exposure to the Chinese market. This comes after Xi Jinping secured an unprecedented, third five-year term to serve as China's leader. That wasn't surprising, but it did come as a shock to many investors that he managed to surround himself only with loyalists who are apt to help him pursue tighter regulations and the continuation of China's zero-Covid policy.

JD.com (JD 36.66, -5.49, -13.0%) and Pinduoduo (PDD 44.46, -14.51, -24.6%) were losing standouts for Chinese stocks while Las Vegas Sands (LVS 35.05, -4.02, -10.3%) and Starbucks (SBUX 83.76, -4.85, -5.5%) also suffered losses on concerns related to Xi's power grab. 

Energy complex futures settled in mixed fashion. WTI crude oil futures fell 0.3% to $84.64.bbl while natural gas futures rose 5.2% to $5.21/mmbtu.

Also, it has been reported that Rishi Sunak will be the next UK prime minister.

General Motors (GM), Valero Energy (VLO), Centene (CNC), UPS (UPS), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), PulteGroup (PHM), Haliburton (HAL), General Electric (GE), Raytheon Technologies (RTX), Biogen (BIIB), Coca-Cola (KO), and 3M (MMM) headline the earnings reports ahead of Tuesday's open.

Looking ahead to Tuesday, market participants will receive the following economic data:

  • 9:00 ET: August FHFA Housing Price Index (consensus -0.7%; prior -0.6%), August S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index ( consensus 14.0%; prior 16.1%)
  • 10:00 ET: October Consumer Confidence (consensus 105.5; prior 108.0)

Economic data today was limited to the preliminary October IHS Markit Manufacturing PMI, which came in at 49.9 versus the prior reading of 52.0 and the preliminary October IHS Markit Services PMI came in at 46.6 versus the prior reading of 49.3.

Dow Jones Industrial Average: -13.3% YTD
S&P Midcap 400: -18.1% YTD
S&P 500: -20.3% YTD
Russell 2000: -22.1% YTD
Nasdaq Composite: -30.0% YTD

Business Of Fashion : Fashion’s Metaverse Obsession Has Cooled – But Don’t Count

Fashion’s Metaverse Obsession Has Cooled – But Don’t Count the Virtual World Out Yet
Meta’s earnings this week will provide an opportunity for the company to defend its vision for the metaverse. Fashion remains enthusiastic about the concept, though skepticism is growing.

For the last two years, fashion brands have unleashed a steady drip of metaverse experiments and experiences. Virtual fashion shows helped brands both big and small grab attention early in the pandemic, and operators of virtual worlds such as Fortnite, Roblox and Minecraft announced collaboration after collaboration. Brands have named executives to head up metaverse strategy.

Fashion hasn’t abandoned its obsession with virtual reality: Tommy Hilfiger’s September fashion show had a metaverse component, and Burberry will launch a Minecraft world in November. But there’s no denying that the pace of announcements has slowed. Fortnite hasn’t announced any new fashion collaborations this year. Many of those Roblox worlds are updated sporadically, if at all, and even on a busy day, see only dozens of users.

There’s no bigger symbol of the technology’s growing pains than Facebook parent Meta, which reports quarterly results on Wednesday. The company has positioned itself as the metaverse’s biggest champion, but has struggled to convince its billions of users to log on amid a seemingly endless storm of bad press. Recent reporting from The Verge, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times and others has painted a picture of empty virtual worlds that even Meta’s own employees have yet to embrace, as well as the usual issues with harassment and content moderation that come with any online platform. Meta continues to add new brands and items to its avatar store, which includes outfits designed by Balenciaga and Prada. But it’s not clear how many people are buying them, or can even find it.

Fashion brands have often met a similar reaction to their metaverse experiments, albeit on a smaller scale. Critics and ordinary consumers complain the clothes sent down those virtual runways are ugly. The process to create a virtual avatar can be confusing for new users, and it’s not always clear what you’re supposed to do with your mini-me once you create them.

The cooling economy is another impediment. All but the most innovative brands are at least five years away from the metaverse contributing meaningfully to revenue, according to the State of Fashion: Technology report put out earlier this year by The Business of Fashion and McKinsey & Co. That’s a long time to wait, especially when borrowing costs are rising fast and companies are worried about ensuring cash flow to make it through an impending recession.

It’s easy to be cynical about the metaverse. Some high profile projects are troubled, but the underlying concepts are slowly working their way into the fashion mainstream. Young consumers may be ignoring Meta’s Horizon Worlds, but they spend much of their time in the virtual worlds of Fortnite, Minecraft and Roblox. Roblox recently rolled out sleeker graphics that could make it easier for brands to release compelling content. Luxury brands, which are still reporting record sales and profits despite the worsening economic outlook, have plenty of resources to make available to their new chief metaverse officers.

Meta isn’t giving up either, and even incremental successes there will create enormous opportunities for fashion. Perhaps we’ll learn more on Wednesday.

9to5 : Apple is raising the price of Apple Music, Apple TV+ and Apple One from t


Apple is today increasing the prices of its Apple Music and Apple TV+ subscription services. The Apple One bundle price is also rising in unison.
The Apple Music monthly price has been upped by ~$1 for individuals and ~$2 for families. Apple TV+ is rising by $2 (which only has one tier and supports Family Sharing on all plans). Apple One is also going up by approximately $3 per month. Full pricing changes after the break …



This represents the first time Apple has raised the subscription price of Music, TV+ and Apple One in the United States.
Apple said the increase in Apple Music subscription price was due to increased licensing costs. The company said artists and songwriters will earn more per stream as a result of the pricing tier changes. Regarding Apple TV+, the company said the increased price reflects the growing catalog of original TV shows and movies:
From an Apple spokesperson:
The subscription prices for Apple Music, Apple TV+, and Apple One will increase beginning today. The change to Apple Music is due to an increase in licensing costs, and in turn, artists and songwriters will earn more for the streaming of their music. We also continue to add innovative features that make Apple Music the world’s best listening experience. We introduced Apple TV+ at a very low price because we started with just a few shows and movies. Three years later, Apple TV+ is home to an extensive selection of award-winning and broadly acclaimed series, feature films, documentaries, and kids and family entertainment from the world’s most creative storytellers.
This translates to increases of $1 to $2 per service, with Apple One tiers going up about $3 at the same time. Here’s the full pricing breakdown for the United States:
Apple Music
  • Individual: $10.99 per month (from $9.99)
  • Family: $16.99 per month (from $14.99)
  • Individual Annual: $109 per year (from $99)
Apple TV+
  • Monthly: $6.99 per month (from $4.99)
  • Annual: $69 per year (from $49.99)
Apple One
  • Individual: $16.95 per month (from $14.95)
  • Family: $22.95 per month (from $19.95)
  • Premier: $32.95 per month (from $29.95)
If you are in an International market, you should also expect to see proportionally similar price increases go into effect beginning today. Current subscribers will receive notifications of the planned price increases 30 days prior to the service renewing at the higher price.
Apple clearly believes the prices of its content services remain competitive. Unlike its competitors, Apple’s services include more features as standard.
For instance, Apple Music includes lossless audio and Spatial Audio at no additional charge, unlike Spotify which doesn’t offer these features today — and is actually expected to charge extra for them when they are introduced. Similarly, TV+ does not upsell for better video quality; 4K HDR is included as standard.

FT : Morgan Stanley: Mortgagepocalypse Soon

Morgan Stanley: Mortgagepocalypse Soon
Unsafe as houses

Rishi Sunak is prime minister, after the UK managed to get through an entire BoJo Cycle (opportunism, boosterism, lies, humiliating betrayal of the loyalists) in a matter of mere days — who says the national productivity puzzle can’t be solved?

Given the brief boost given to the pound by Johnson demonstrating he can, in fact, pull out, FT Alphaville is inclined to speculate the former PM simply wanted to make his next holiday a bit more affordable. With stable leadership now in place, it’s now plain sailing for the United Kingdom.

Oh, but the economy.

A lot of discussion over the past year has been about the cost of living crisis in terms of price inflation and energy bills. But the other major element is of course mortgage costs. Another vicious cycle: price are soaring —> your friendly, local central bank hikes rates —> now your mortgage is more expensive too. Thanks.

For anyone feeling relieved that the future of the UK is no longer in the hands of the Conservative party membership (we’re not going to get on our high horse about who has a mandates here), Morgan Stanley has a note out today that’s perfectly-timed to wipe the smile off your face. 🥰

A new PM for the UK is incoming, but we think the fiscal course is already changed. A recession awaits, and we forecast the BoE to hike much less than markets next year as growth slows…

Given short fixed-rate periods, 35-40% of UK mortgages may see higher rates in the next 12 months. Resets are significant for both banks and borrowers; ~6% new rates versus ~2% rates in the back book. With higher utility bills, a 6% mortgage rate could mean that 30-40% of UK households struggle to pay their mortgage.

Read that again. Up to four in ten UK mortgaged households may struggle to stay current on their house over the next year.

On the plus side, Andrew Sheets, Morgan Stanley’s chief cross-asset strategist, argues that “mortgage underwriting was of significantly higher quality than pre-GFC”. Bank investors may be (a little) relieved; households are probably not.

The further slides are . . . grim:

When Johnson’s leadership fell apart in the early summer, there was a sense that the Conservatives were operating in effectively suspended animation: determined to spend the summer playing to the party faithful despite the tough looming winter.

Now, three-and-a-half months later, we‘re down a monarch and a chunk of credibility, and up some kind of energy bill relief (although exactly what form it will take still seems somewhat up in the air). It would be a great thing to have a fully-functioning government right now. We know that’s a lot to ask though.