FoxNews : Newly amended California bill could punish parents refusing to ‘affirm

Newly amended California bill could punish parents refusing to ‘affirm’ child’s gender identity
Critics of the bill claim that it could open the door to legally declare non-affirmation of a child's gender identity child abuse across the board.

A California state bill was recently amended so that parents in custody battles may be liable for child abuse if they do not affirm the gender identity of their children.

AB 957, which passed in the State Assembly on May 3, originally proposed that courts deciding custody cases must consider whether each parent were gender-affirming of the child in question.

The amendment has added to the state’s standard of what constitutes parental responsibility for child welfare, requiring that parents must be affirming of a child’s gender identity if they are to be judged fit for providing for "the health, safety, and welfare of the child," in a court of law.

If the newly-amended bill were to go into law parents who do not affirm this new standard of health and safety for their children may be found liable for child abuse and have their young one removed from their home.

Critics of this amended bill claim that it could open the door to legally declare non-affirmation of a child's gender identity child abuse across the board.

Democratic Assembly member Lori Wilson wrote the original bill along with State Senator Scott Weiner, who also co-sponsored it. The bill was introduced into the legislative body last February.

Sen. Weiner has also advanced a separate bill requiring foster parents to affirm the gender identities of children coming into their homes. And last year, the state senator from San Francisco introduced SB 107 to make California a haven where LGBTQ children could obtain sex changes without parental consent.

After passing the state assembly and being introduced into the state senate, the bill was amended on June 6, so that its provisions would alter the California Family Code by making affirming gender identity one of legal standards parents have to meet in order to be recognized as providing for the "health, safety, and welfare of the child."

If parents embroiled in a custody battle were to deny the child’s gender identity, state courts would have the authority to under Section 3011 of California’s Family Code to remove the child from the parent’s home.

Conservative outlet The Daily Signal warned that the state requiring gender affirmation in standards of children’s health and well-being, opens the door for groups to direct charges of child abuse at parents unwilling to recognize their children as trans.

It stated, "Because of the addition of ‘gender affirmation’ to the qualifications of California’s standards for ‘health, safety, and welfare,’ California’s courts would now be able to accept reports of gender ‘abuse’ from progressive activist organizations—as long as they claim to provide ‘services to victims of sexual assault or domestic violence.’"

A spokesperson for Sen. Wilson tried to downplay concerns over the amendment, saying, "It's not saying [affirmation] is the most important factor or determining factor. It's one of many factors that the judge should consider while working out a custody agreement."

A state senate hearing AB 957 will be held on June 13.

FT : EU offers Tunisia over €1bn to stem migration

EU offers Tunisia over €1bn to stem migration
Brussels proposes €255mn in grants for Tunis, linking longer-term loans of up to €900mn to reforms

The EU has offered Tunisia more than €1bn in a bid to help the North African nation overcome a deepening economic crisis that has prompted thousands of migrants to cross the Mediterranean Sea to Italy.

The financial assistance package was announced on Sunday in Tunis after Ursula von der Leyen, accompanied by the prime ministers of Italy and the Netherlands, Giorgia Meloni and Mark Rutte, met with Tunisian president Kais Saied. The proposal still requires the endorsement of other EU governments and will be linked to Tunisian authorities passing IMF-mandated reforms.

Von der Leyen said the bloc is prepared to mobilise €150mn in grants “right now” to boost Tunisia’s flagging economy, which has suffered from surging commodity prices linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Further assistance in the form of loans, totalling €900mn, could be mobilised over the longer-term, she said.

In addition, Europe will also provide €105mn in grants this year to support Tunisia’s border management network, in a bid to “break the cynical business model of smugglers and traffickers”, von der Leyen said. The package is nearly triple what the bloc has so far provided in migration funding for the North African nation.

The offer of quick financial support is a boost for Tunisia’s embattled president, but longer-term support is contingent on him accepting reforms linked to a $1.9bn IMF package, a move Saied has been attempting to defer until after presidential elections next year.

Saied has refused to endorse the IMF loan agreement agreed in October, saying he rejected foreign “diktats” that would further impoverish Tunisians. The Tunisian leader is wary of measures such as reducing energy subsidies and speeding up the privatisation of state-owned enterprises as they could damage his popularity.

Meloni, who laid the groundwork for the announcement after meeting with Saied on Tuesday, has been pushing Washington and Brussels for months to unblock financial aid for Tunisia. The Italian leader is concerned that if the north African country’s economy imploded, it would trigger an even bigger wave of people trying to cross the Mediterranean.

So far this year, more than 53,000 migrants have arrived in Italy by boat, more than double compared with the same period last year — with a sharp increase in boats setting out from Tunisia one factor behind the surge.

The agreement was “an important step towards creating a true partnership to address the migration crisis,” Meloni said on Sunday.

In February, Saied stoked up racist violence against people from sub-Saharan African countries by saying they were part of a plot to change Tunisia’s demographic profile.

His rhetoric has softened in an apparent bid to improve the image of the deal with the EU. Visiting a camp on Saturday, he criticised the treatment of migrants “as mere numbers”. However, he added, “it is unacceptable for us to play the policeman for other countries”.

The Tunisian Forum for Economic and Social Rights think-tank criticised the EU’s visit on Sunday as “an attempt to exploit [Tunisia’s] political, economic and social fragility”.

The financial aid proposal comes days after European governments agreed on a long-awaited migration package that will speed up asylum proceedings and make it easier for member states to send back people who are denied asylum.

The package also includes proposals to support education, energy and trade relations with the country, including by investing in Tunisia’s renewable energy network and allowing Tunisian students to take part in student exchange programme Erasmus+.

The presence of the Dutch prime minister, usually a voice for fiscally conservative leaders in the 27-strong bloc, indicated that approval of the package would not be as difficult to achieve as other foreign funding requests. The Netherlands, while not a frontline country like Italy, has also experienced a spike in so-called secondary migration, as many of the people who arrive in southern Europe travel on and apply for asylum in northern countries.

Calling the talks “excellent”, Rutte said that “the window is open, we all sense there’s this opportunity to foster this relationship between the EU and Tunisia”.

Insider Science : An extinct species buried their dead and carved symbols 100,00

An extinct species buried their dead and carved symbols 100,000 years before humans. The findings challenge our understanding of human evolution, researchers say.

A reproduction of the skull of a Homo naledi named Leti, found inside the Rising Star Cave System at the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site near Maropeng, South Africa.

  • An extinct species called Homo naledi buried their dead 100,000 years before humans.
  • These actions were previously thought to be associated with larger-brained species.
  • The findings challenge previous assumptions about the progress of human evolution.
Researchers have found that an extinct human species buried their dead and carved symbols on cave walls 100,000 years before humans, challenging previous assumptions about human evolution.

The species, called Homo naledi, had brains about one-third the size of a modern human's, according to CNN.

Until now, these behaviors had only been associated with larger-brained species such as Homo sapiens and Neanderthals.

The research is laid out in three studies accepted for publication in the journal eLife, CNN said.
"These recent findings suggest intentional burials, the use of symbols, and meaning-making activities by Homo naledi. They indicate that this small-brained species of ancient human relatives were performing complex practices related to death," paleoanthropologist Lee Berger said in a statement per CNN.

Berger was the lead author on two studies, a co-author on the third, and National Geographic Explorer in Residence.

"That would mean not only are humans not unique in the development of symbolic practices, but may not have even invented such behaviors," he said.

Homo naledi fossils were first discovered in the Rising Star cave system in South Africa in 2013, and Berger and his team have continued to explore the caves ever since.

The team found the remains of Homo naledi adults and children laid to rest in the fetal position and covered in soil, which pre-date any known Homo sapiens burials by at least 100,000 years.

Homo naledi walked upright and manipulated objects by hand like humans, Berger said, but they were shorter, thinner, had smaller heads, and were more powerfully built, per CNN.
Professor Lee Berger shows a reproduction of the skull of a Homo naledi named Leti, found inside the Rising Star Cave System at the Cradle of Humankind World Heritage Site near Maropeng, South Africa on November 4, 2021.
Luca Sola/AFP via Getty Images

The team also found symbols carved into the cave walls, which they described as resembling hashtags and other geometric symbols, according to CNN.

It is unclear what the symbols mean and whether the species used them to communicate.
The cave art was estimated to be between 241,000 and 335,000 years old.

"What we can say is that these are intentionally made geometric designs that had meaning for naledi," Agustín Fuentes, National Geographic Explorer, who was lead author on the third study, said, per CNN.

"That means they spent a lot of time and effort and risked their lives to engrave these things in these places where they're burying bodies."

He said that the discovery challenges assumptions about the progress of human evolution.

"The challenge here, then, is that we now know that Homo naledi, in addition to Homo sapiens and Neanderthals and Denisovans and a few others, were engaging in the kind of behavior that we, even just a few decades ago, thought was unique to us," he said.

Miss Tweed : Have store staff become a luxury?

Have store staff become a luxury?

The summer season is upon us. Fashion capitals such as Paris, Milan, London and New York expect tourists to arrive in droves to snap up luxury goods. However, insiders say even the hottest brands are struggling to recruit enough staff for their stores during the crucial shopping season.

If customers wait too long to be served, they head for the next shop. Boutiques that do not have enough sales assistants risk losing business, analysts say. Since the end of the pandemic, online fashion retail has stopped booming. People enjoy being able to spend time in shops and prefer to try before they buy. Customers want to feel special and get quality advice. Good service is what sets luxury brands apart from more accessible brands and partly justifies their high price. On average, between 80 and 85 percent of luxury goods are still sold in boutiques, not online. Hence, the shop remains the center of the action and staffing is fundamental for brands to meet sales targets.

Last week, the French government unveiled a historic €340 million three-year program to help fashion and luxury brands suffering from chronic staff shortages, hire and train more craftsmen. However, there are also serious staffing issues in the services sector. That includes hotels, restaurants and also boutiques. It’s a serious headache for industry leaders such as LVMH which has a built up a significant presence in that field since its $3.2 billion acquisition in 2019 of Belmond, a group that owns 45 hotels, cruise lines and the fabled Venice Simplon-Orient Express train service. Last summer, several five-star hotels in Paris had to close entire floors because of staff shortages. Although we are already in June, you can still see “hiring” signs in the front windows of fashion and luxury shops desperate to boost their teams.

THE NEXT BIG TOPIC
“Jobs in services are under tension,” said Alexandre Boquel, head of LVMH’s Métiers d’Excellence Institute that includes the training, hiring and transmission of skills applied in retail services and in the arts and crafts its dozens of brands use. “We may need a [government] program of the same scope,” he told Miss Tweed. “This is the next big topic.”

One oft-quoted problem is how sales assistants are perceived socially, particularly in countries such as France. These jobs are regarded as less prestigious than other white-collar professions in the liberal arts, law or medicine. That is partly why young people do not rush to apply for retail jobs, often preferring office work. It is less of an issue in countries such as the United States where people working in retail represent the country’s biggest workforce and there are fewer concerns about how it is perceived socially, industry experts say.

“This is a topic that should not be taken lightly,” said Jean Révis, managing partner at consultancy MAD. “If you want to properly manage the growth expected in the coming years, this topic needs to be anticipated and structured,” he told Miss Tweed.“Around seventy-five percent of sales on average will still be in stores in the next few years, so if you do not have enough staff, you will not be able to reach your full potential.”

Industry experts say most people working in service jobs such as restaurants, hotels and fashion and luxury boutiques did not return after the pandemic. They preferred less tedious professions. There has been a change of mindset. Wellbeing is a priority now and people are no longer willing to work long hours in shops and restaurants and endure customers’ whims.

“Since Covid, quality of life has become a more important factor in career choices,” says Delphine Vitry, managing partner at consultancy MAD. “People are less willing than before to work in difficult conditions, even for a luxury brand. They want flexibility and clear prospects for career progression.”

Even at Chanel, one of the world’s most desirable luxury brands, people applying for summer jobs or permanent jobs, want to have some weekends free and advance notice of their work schedule, staff at the French fashion house say. “But that is very difficult to do since we only get our schedules two weeks in advance,” said one sales assistant at a Paris store which this week was packed with customers eager to see the brand’s newly arrived ready-to-wear collection.

The power is now rather in the hands of applicants than the employer, industry specialists say. Even those people applying to work in boutiques ask to be able to work remotely at least one day a week, arguing that they can sell products and build relationships with customers from the comfort of their own living rooms.

Some brands such as Dior and Chanel allow sales staff to act as ambassadors and post photos of themselves or of colleagues wearing outfits, or sporting luxury bags, watches or jewelry on social media.

“This allows sales advisers to do more than just process a purchase,” says Nicolas Rebet, consultant at Retailoscope, a company specializing in anonymous visits and analyzing the service provided by luxury brands in their stores. “It gives them a voice and lets them tell stories about the brand, under the control of the brand, of course.”

On Instagram, you can find luxury sales assistants who have more than 10,000 followers. He cited one working for LVMH’s Chaumet at its flagship store on place Vendome, Paris’ jewelry Mecca. He has an Instagram account called luca.vendome and described himself as a “Sales Ambassador.” The heading of his account says: “Send me a private message for all enquiries or boutique appointment requests.” Luca regularly posts beautiful videos of Chaumet diamond tiaras, necklaces and sapphire or ruby rings. He also shares photos of Chaumet’s special events and of his trips around the world from Sanremo to Abu Dhabi.

“It is interesting to see how staff can become key opinion leaders on social media,” says Catherine Blot, a luxury consultant who coaches young brands and founded the advisory company La Fabrique du Retail. “Sales advisers have become influencers but not everybody is capable of doing that.”

TRAINING IS FUNDAMENTAL
Universities specializing in luxury such as France’s Sup de Luxe, founded by former Cartier CEO Alain-Dominique Perrin in 1990, say students are not rushing to work in stores even though it is essential to understanding the business. “We struggle to make them understand that retail is fundamental,” says Clémentine de Goy Soulier, head of Sup de Luxe bachelor’s program. “They need to be confronted with clients and exchange with them.”

She says most students want to work in marketing, merchandising and digital communications. “Very few of them chose retail and that is partly why brands struggle to hire enough people.” Also, the weaker the brand, the more trouble it will have attracting recruits. Chanel and Hermès, for example, receive more applications than Tod’s or Ferragamo because they are perceived as more successful and popular brands.

Training is also fundamental for good service in store. Most groups, including LVMH, Kering and Richemont, have internal training programs. Kering launched its own in 2016. It focuses on training methods and recruitment and is run by each brand with its own specific features. In 2021, Kering launched a training program for its teams in China, taking advantage of the pandemic and the fact that shops were closed to spend time on investing in its retail teams. The program involves working for two different brands over 21 months, including Saint Laurent, Bottega Veneta and Balenciaga. Lastly, this year the French group launched a retail graduate program for students in Europe called Kering Keys Retail, but it declined to say how many students it aimed to enroll.

TIES WITH CLIENTS
Some brands, such as LVMH’s powerhouse Dior, have introduced career programs for people working in boutiques, promising them that, after a few years, they will be able to work in other departments such as marketing or strategy, or in more senior managerial jobs. However, internal sources at Dior say these programs apply mainly to young people, not to experienced sales staff who have been working for the brand for more than 10 years and have a solid address book. Dior is keen for them to stay where they are. They have built strong ties with local clients, particularly during the pandemic, and the company wants them to preserve these relationships. They are essential to keeping sales levels high.

“The big names in luxury are more accustomed to controlling their brand image as a house than as an employer,” says Vitry from the MAD consultancy. “It's not just a question of money, it's also important to give meaning to the job.”

In China, however, sales assistants care more about the money they make than the purpose of their jobs. The market there for recruiting sales staff is tighter than it has ever been. No-one expected the country to open up so quickly earlier this year and for demand to recover so strongly. “Before Covid, it was not easy to keep staff and recruit as people left easily for another brand and a higher salary,” said the Asia Pacific head of one of the world’s top five jewelry brands.

“Today, it’s become even more difficult to hire staff with experience in luxury and who speak English. Everyone needs to hire at the same time, so competition is particularly fierce right now.” In jewelry, sales staff make quite a lot of money from commissions. For example, if Bulgari wants to hire someone from Cartier, or if Tiffany wants to hire someone from Van Cleef & Arpels, the targeted employee will demand a guaranteed salary, whether he or she meets their sales target or not. Some sales advisers can make several hundred thousand euros a year, more than the regional CEO of a brand.

During the nearly three years of off-and-on lockdowns in China, many brands continued to pay staff to retain them and be ready for when the market opens. However, some left anyway because they were no longer getting commissions. Now brands are struggling to replace them, insiders say. The industry is betting on sales in China to make up for weakness in the United States. However, they will have to offer Chinese staff more money to come and work for them, putting their margins under pressure.

Business Of Fashion : At Pitti and Milan Men’s, It’s Gorpcore vs. Quiet Luxury

At Pitti and Milan Men’s, It’s Gorpcore vs. Quiet Luxury
A host of buzzy emerging designers will bring the hipster-meets-hiking trend to Italy, while heritage labels are riding high on the craze for pricey, muted style. That, plus what else to watch for this week.

Milan men’s fashion week will see a shakeup in terms of focus, albeit partially unplanned. Satoshi Kuwata’s Setchu, fresh off winning the LVMH Prize for young designers, has maximum buzz heading into its presentation on Saturday. Magliano, which won LVMH’s Karl Lagerfeld prize, will show on Sunday.

Milan has been working hard to draw more buzzy, emerging brands — historically scarce on its the heritage-heavy calendar — and the spotlight from the prestigious prize could accelerate that shift. Meanwhile Gucci, theoretically a top draw since making its return to the calendar, has scaled back to a presentation while it waits for its new creative director to settle in (Sabato De Sarno’s debut is slated for September).

In Milan and at Pitti Uomo earlier in the week, look for signs of what’s next for two key menswear trends: gorpcore (think hipster-meets-hiking) and quiet luxury.

On the quiet luxury front, purveyors of classic Italian menswear like Zegna and Brunello Cucinelli are currently enjoying a surge in heat. Who else will manage to capitalise on the current love for tailoring and suiting? Smaller menswear houses like Caruso and Corneliani, which have struggled for years to attract younger customers and adapt to more casual tastes, face a rare opportunity.

A host of hip outdoors brands will also be present at Pitti, including Snow Peak, Goldwin and Hikerdelic, which takes an ‘80s acid house aesthetic to the woods.

It’s unclear to what extent rising interest in minimalism and dressier clothes will be incorporated by gorpcore and streetwear brands, not to mention big luxury houses like Fendi where logos and monograms are a key driver of sales. Some sporty labels are already rolling out more toned-down fare, like Asics, which launched a new sub-brand by Kiko Kostadinov. This week in Florence and Milan we’ll see which other influential brands jump on the bandwagon — or if quiet luxury really was another passing TikTok craze.

FT : George Soros hands over OSF leadership to his son

George Soros hands over OSF leadership to his son
Alexander Soros pledges as foundation head to ‘double down’ on defending voting rights and personal freedoms


George Soros, one of the world’s best-known investors and liberal donors, has handed over leadership of his multibillion-dollar foundation to his son Alex Soros. 

The appointment as chair of the Open Society Foundations (OSF), which was made quietly in December, places Alex Soros at the head of one of the wealthiest global philanthropic foundations. 

“We are going to double down on defending voting rights and personal freedom at home and supporting the cause of democracy abroad,” Alex Soros told the Financial Times through a spokesperson. 

His comments signal a more prominent role for the 37-year-old as US political parties gear up for the 2024 presidential election. George Soros has been one of the biggest donors to Democratic candidates in US politics. 

In his first interview after taking on the role, Alex Soros told the Wall Street Journal on Sunday that he is “more political” than his father. “As much as I would love to get money out of politics, as long as the other side is doing it, we will have to do it, too,” he told the newspaper. 

A source close to the family said the Soros’ priorities in US politics would be unchanged by Alex’s appointment. Leadership of the foundation will make Alex, who this week tweeted a photo of himself posing with US vice-president Kamala Harris, a potential target for the rightwing groups and leaders who have attacked his father.

In an opinion piece for CNN this month, Alex praised the Biden administration’s move to fight antisemitism and condemned attacks on his father by Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán and by Elon Musk. He also rebuked Trump for “dog-whistle language” in a campaign ad featuring George Soros.

The 92-year-old made his fortune as a prominent hedge fund investor, including his famous 1992 bet against the value of the British pound, on which he made a more than $1bn profit. 

Alex, a child of George’s second marriage to Susan Weber, studied history at New York University and earned a PhD from the University of California, Berkeley. 

While he has sometimes received media attention for his celebrity connections, he has also focused on his own philanthropic initiatives such as progressive Jewish organisations, environmental causes and aiding domestic workers in the US. 

He became his father’s deputy as chair of the OSF in 2017. Alex also sits on the investment committee for the foundation that oversees Soros Fund Management. The vast majority of SFM’s $25bn AUM belongs to OSF. 

The OSF received $18bn from George Soros in 2018 and is expected to benefit from the bulk of his remaining fortune, estimated by Forbes at nearly $7bn. The foundation, which spent $1.5bn in 2021, supports a wide range of causes including recently backing “activists documenting war crimes” during the war in Ukraine, according to the organisation. 

Alex has travelled extensively as part of his work, taking an interest in international issues from Ukraine to the western Balkans, south Asia and Congo. “With my background, there are a lot of ways I could have gone astray. Instead I became a workaholic, and my life is my work,” Soros said.

Platformer.news : Twitter stiffs Google

Twitter stiffs Google
Musk won't pay his Google Cloud bill — and the company's trust and safety systems are hanging in the balance

Twitter has refused to pay its Google Cloud bills as its contract comes up for renewal this month, Platformer has learned, leading to a high-stakes conflict between the companies that could result in Twitter’s trust and safety teams being crippled.

While Twitter hosts some services on its own servers, the company has long contracted with Google and Amazon to complement its infrastructure. Prior to Musk buying Twitter last year, the company signed a multi-year contract with Google to host services related to fighting spam, removing child sexual abuse material, and protecting accounts, among other things.

Twitter has been trying to renegotiate its contract with Google since at least March, the Information reported that month. It had also delayed payments to Amazon Web Services, leading the company to threaten withholding advertising payments.

WSJ : Fueled by Long Credit Binge, China’s Economy Faces Drag From Debt Purge

Fueled by Long Credit Binge, China’s Economy Faces Drag From Debt Purge
Consumers, businesses and local governments are looking to deleverage

HONG KONG—After years of heavy borrowing, many in China are focused on paying down their debts this year—and the result could be weaker growth for a long time to come.

The world’s No. 2 economy binged for years on credit to finance everything from canyon-spanning bridges to new apartments.

Now China finds itself facing a protracted period of what economists call deleveraging—the painful process in which borrowers divert income to pay down debts instead of spending and investing.

Total credit to the nonfinancial sector was $49.9 trillion last September, more than triple the level 10 years ago, according to the Bank for International Settlements, a consortium of global central banks. But the figure has begun to drop: It is down from $51.4 trillion at the end of 2021.


Total social financing outstanding, a broad measure of credit and liquidity in the economy, expanded by 10% in 2022, compared with growth of 15% in 2017 and 19% in 2012, according to Wind, a Chinese data provider.

The issue isn’t the central government, whose debts are relatively low as a percentage of gross domestic product, but households, the private sector and local governments. Total debt as a share of GDP hit 295% in China last September, surpassing 257% in the U.S. and an average of 258% in the eurozone, BIS data show.

Consumers are hoarding cash, with many refusing to take out loans. Private businesses are barely investing, despite efforts by Beijing to encourage entrepreneurs to spend. Local governments are reducing expenditures on everything from roads to workers’ salaries to get their debts under control.

“Borrowers that are focused on paying down debt are less able to fund new projects that would increase GDP growth,” said Nicholas Borst, director of China research at Seafarer Capital Partners.

Other countries have been through similar processes, almost always painful.

In Japan, the collapse of a real-estate bubble in the 1980s and 1990s compelled corporations and individuals to pay down debt instead of taking out new loans, even after interest rates fell to zero. The ensuing drop in demand led to a vicious cycle of deflation and economic stagnation.

In the U.S., the buildup of subprime mortgage debt in the 2000s helped trigger a financial crisis. That led to years of deleveraging, weighing on consumption and growth.

A study by McKinsey found that in 45 episodes of deleveraging since the Great Depression, 32 followed a financial crisis.

Most economists don’t expect a financial crisis in China, or even a harsh recession, because they assume that the central government has the financial wherewithal and inclination to prevent either.

Economists at Société Générale in a recent report said Chinese policy makers need to learn lessons from Japan and prevent a deleveraging mind-set from becoming entrenched, by restructuring more debts or offering direct income support to households to boost consumption.

If not, the economists warned, China could fall into a trap in which even zero interest rates wouldn’t stimulate growth. “Such a danger seems increasingly relevant for China,” they wrote.

Others think Beijing will tolerate slower growth. Since 2016 it has discouraged off-balance-sheet borrowing by local governments, reined in private conglomerates that were snapping up hotels and other trophy assets overseas, and capped new lending to property developers. That had only limited success restraining debt.

As a result, “the bias of policy will continue to be pushing down leverage wherever they can, even if it causes growth to go lower,” said Arthur Kroeber, founding partner of Gavekal Dragonomics, a research consulting firm.

He estimates that China’s underlying growth rate could slow to 2%-4% in the coming decade, from 6.2% in the past decade and 10.6% in the decade before that.

“The only way to keep China’s growth rate high is to let debts keep growing,” said Michael Pettis, a finance professor at Peking University. “It appears policy makers are choosing a harder constraint on debt.”

Consumers, who Beijing hoped would help drive growth this year, haven’t kept splurging after an initial burst in spending when the government lifted Covid controls late last year.

Despite low interest rates, many homeowners are rushing to prepay their mortgages. Li Si, who bought her first apartment in Zhongshan, a city in southern China, in 2019, said she decided to pay off her mortgage early after losing money investing in mutual funds over the past year. She said felt safer reducing her debt exposure.

“The economy feels far less certain now,” said Li, 33 years old, who works in the financial industry. “What if I lose my job tomorrow?”

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, a Santa Monica, Calif.-based asset manager, noted that household debt as a share of disposable income is nearing 110% in China, fast approaching where American households were around the 2008 global financial crisis.

“No amount of interest-rate cuts will change the behavior of consumers when they try to deleverage,” he said.

Chinese entrepreneurs, spooked by regulatory crackdowns on the internet and education sectors, are reluctant to assume more risk. Private investments grew by 0.4% in the first four months of this year from the same period last year, compared with 5.5% during the same period in 2019.

Real-estate developers, which once spent heavily buying land from local governments, have cut back dramatically.

Land sales by size in 300 cities fell 26% in the first five months of 2023 from a year earlier, according to the China Index Academy, a property-research institute. It added that most private developers are choosing to repay debt over making new investments.

Then there are local governments, which ran up trillions of dollars in debt in recent years and need to cut spending to avoid default. Local governments and their financing vehicles are on the hook to repay bonds worth close to 7% of China’s GDP, a record, according to Goldman Sachs.

FT : Will US inflation strengthen the case for a Fed pause?

Will US inflation strengthen the case for a Fed pause?
Market Questions is the FT’s guide to the week ahead

Will US inflation continue to slow?
US inflation is expected to have slowed meaningfully again in May after only a marginal easing in April, offering the Federal Reserve a strong justification for pausing interest rate increases in June.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics on Tuesday will release its latest US consumer price index report, which is expected to show that headline inflation was 4.1 per cent in May, year on year, according to economists surveyed by Reuters.

That would mark a dramatic improvement from the rate in April of 4.9 per cent, after March’s 5 per cent reading. Compared to the previous month, the consumer price index is expected to have risen 0.4 per cent.

The data comes ahead of the Fed’s June rate-setting meeting, which will conclude on Wednesday. The CPI figure is expected to add to the central bank’s conviction that a pause this month in its historic campaign to increase rates is warranted.

The decline in the headline rate is expected to have been driven by weaker energy prices, Bank of America analysts argued, citing data from the American Automobile Association. This shows that average regular petrol prices declined 2.1 per cent month on month.

Core CPI, which strips out the volatile food and energy sectors, is expected to come in at 5.2 per cent year on year, down slightly from the previous month’s rate of 5.5 per cent. The BofA analysts argued that core prices will have been kept high by used-car prices. Kate Duguid

How much higher will the ECB raise interest rates?
Eurozone inflation is falling and the currency bloc’s economy is shrinking slightly. But economists are still convinced that the European Central Bank will raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point when it meets next week.

There is more doubt about how much higher borrowing costs will go in the 20-country zone, so ECB-watchers will be listening closely to what its president, Christine Lagarde, says about likely future rate moves.

Annual inflation in the eurozone has fallen from a peak of 10.6 per cent in October to 6.1 per cent in May. But rate-setters are likely to still be worried that underlying inflation, which excludes volatile energy and food prices, is still too high, even though it dipped to 5.3 per cent last month.

“In essence, data continue to be conducive to the ECB raising rates,” said Andrzej Szczepaniak, an economist at Japanese bank Nomura, pointing out that accelerating eurozone wage growth will keep services inflation stubbornly high.

Investors are betting that the ECB will raise rates this week and again in July before pausing. A key signal on future policy will be whether the central bank lowers its inflation forecast but Szczepaniak thinks it is more likely to raise it.

Dirk Schumacher, an economist at French bank Natixis, expects Lagarde to “stress that an end of the hiking cycle will crucially depend on a further decline in the core inflation rate in the coming months and that additional rate hikes remain a clear possibility”. Martin Arnold

Will UK wage growth add to inflationary pressures?
UK economic data is expected to show an acceleration in wage growth next week, driven by a higher minimum wage and the economy returning to growth in April, which could bolster higher interest rates expectations.

Economists polled by Reuters forecast that total annual pay growth, published on Tuesday, will have accelerated to 6.1 per cent in the three months to April from 5.8 per cent in the previous three months, reflecting around 1.6mn people benefiting from a 9.7 per cent rise in the minimum wage that took effect in April.

“From the point of view of reducing aggregate cost pressures on inflation, higher earnings growth would not be helpful,” said Sandra Horsfield, an economist at Investec. Strong wage growth could support current market expectations that the Bank of England will raise the bank rate above 5 per cent as it tries to bring inflation back down to its 2 per cent target.

The expected acceleration in wage growth comes despite analysts forecasting that the unemployment rate will reach 4 per cent in the three months to April, up from 3.9 per cent in the three months to March.

A stronger than expected rise in gross domestic product, due out on Wednesday, could support the view that the economy will be able to withstand more interest rate increases. Analysts forecast that GDP grew 0.3 per cent between March and April, reversing the 0.3 per cent contraction in March, partially because of fewer strikes in the transport and education sectors.

That would mean that the economy largely stagnated in the three months to April as it has done for the previous six months. Yet “the fact that the UK economy managed to avoid an outright contraction over the winter months considering the many headwinds to growth, particularly from the energy space, is a success story,” Horsfield said. Valentina Romei

FT : US expected to begin unloading oil from seized Iranian tanker

US expected to begin unloading oil from seized Iranian tanker
Tit-for-tat maritime incidents increase tensions between Washington and Tehran

The US is expected to soon begin unloading oil from an Iranian vessel it seized which is now anchored off the coast of Texas, threatening to escalate a shadow tanker war with Tehran.

The Suez Rajan arrived offshore of Galveston on May 29 and is at anchor some 70 miles from the Texas port, according to transponder location data and satellite imagery.

The US Department of Justice seized the Suez Rajan under a court order with co-operation from at least one company involved with the vessel, the FT previously reported. The ship has been the subject of scrutiny since last year following claims it took on board a cargo of Iranian oil, then intended for China, from another ship near Singapore.

The case of the Suez Rajan is one of several recent maritime incidents involving the US and Iran and threatens to increase tensions between the countries as Washington and its European allies have renewed discussions on how to engage Iran on its nuclear activity.

The US seized the ship in April, prompting Iran to seize the Advantage Sweet, which was carrying Kuwaiti crude oil for US energy company Chevron.

The Biden administration recently increased patrols to respond to Iran’s ship seizures in the Strait of Hormuz, where about a third of all seaborne oil cargoes pass through each day.

The Suez Rajan’s arrival off the coast of Galveston probably indicates that the US government has reached a deal with the owners and operators of the vessel over criminal penalties, said a former official in the Joe Biden administration.

The vessel is carrying about 800,000 barrels of oil, a cargo worth about $56mn.

The ship received a licence from the US Treasury department to import Iranian oil, according to the American Bureau of Shipping, which boarded the vessel to conduct a safety inspection upon its arrival off Texas. The ship is expected to come into the Galveston port in the coming days. Typically, court documents related to a government’s seizure tend to be unsealed after the assets are taken.

The US will sell the oil if it has not already and the proceeds are likely to go to a fund created by Congress for US victims of state-sponsored terrorism, former US officials said.

However, the government has leeway over what it can do with the funds from the sale and could choose to distribute them in other ways, such as for those who are standing up to the Iranian regime, the former Biden administration official said.

The DoJ declined to comment. Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control declined to comment.

Iran was once a major source of imported oil for the US, but this changed after the Iranian Revolution in 1979 and the steady deterioration of relations in the decades after.

US imports of sanctioned Iranian oil since then have been extremely rare — the US imported 2mn barrels in 2021, which it sold after seizing an oil tanker off the coast of the UAE and 507,000 barrels in 2022, believed to be connected to the seizure of two tankers with Iranian oil.