Business Of Fashion : The DTC Watch Brands With Luxury Ambitions

The DTC Watch Brands With Luxury Ambitions
Timepiece start-ups like Baltic, which went from Kickstarter campaign to producing $50K collector grade watches, and Christopher Ward, who is on track to reach more than $40 million in sales this year, are leveraging collector communities and innovation to take on high luxury watchmaking.
Christopher Ward, one of the original digitally-native micro watch brands, is moving upmarket with products like its premium C1 Bel Canto. (Christopher Ward)

KEY INSIGHTS
  • With watches priced between $500 and $1,500, digitally-native watch sellers known as “micro brands,” have long attracted watch collectors who find legacy brands out of reach.
  • Now, those start-ups are moving beyond compelling design at an accessible price, with companies like Christopher Ward and Baltic creating higher-end products and attracting more luxury watch buyers.
  • Though these brands don’t have the cachet and reach of major luxury players, they have a close relationship with their consumers and the ability to be nimble in their supply chain.

One of 2022′s most talked about watches wasn’t the product of a decades-old Swiss giant like Rolex or Patek Phillippe, but a company founded in this century.

In November of last year, 18-year-old British watchmaker Christopher Ward launched its line of C1 Bel Canto automatic watches. The sonnerie — French for making sound — watches, which chime on the top of the hour, were priced at $3,795 to start. That cost was well above the average price for brand’s timepieces, around $1,200, but much less than a sonnerie watch at a legacy brand — Patek Philippe’s petite sonnerie watch will run you north of $1 million.

The initial release of the Bel Canto sold out in hours and is now a mainstay in Christopher Ward’s product offering. It’s sparked a period of growth for the company, which is on pace to double its revenue to around £40 million ($49 million) in 2023.

Christopher Ward is just one of several digitally-native watch sellers that are moving upmarket.

These so-called “micro” brands, which also include six-year-old Paris-based Baltic, along with AnOrdain, Brew, Furlan Marri and others, usually sell direct-to-consumer, bypassing authorised dealers that can be harder to enter than luxury department stores. Their watches are priced between $500 and $1,500, and have fewer purchase barriers, such as the long waiting list Swiss megabrands are known for. With that, they’ve been able to carve out a market in e-commerce — where watch sales, though growing, remain underpenetrated. They attract both watch collectors who find the luxury market out of reach because of price or access, as well as those who can afford premium timepieces but recognise the value in the more affordable brands.

“The rise of these [micro brands] have democratised the industry,” said Adam Craniotes, co-founder and president of RedBar Group, a global association of watch collectors. “People who have Rolexes, Audemars Piguet, Patek Philippe, still want these other brands.”

Now, these brands are adding more advanced complications — features in a watch that go beyond telling time to their product — and moving production in-house. The success of micro brands is all the more remarkable in a luxury watch market that has seen its volumes decline for years. While luxury watchmaking has seen its revenues recover in recent years, success stories have mostly been concentrated among the strongest and most expensive players. But micro brands are poised to take a bigger slice of the more than $100 billion global watch market as the next generation of watch enthusiasts look for more choices when buying well-made watches, industry experts say.

“The people that buy high-end watches, they’ve been part of our world for a long time,” said Blake Buettner, managing editor at online watch publication Worn & Wound. “What you’re starting to see [is micro brands] bringing a greater portion of that market into this space because of the interesting things they’re doing.”

Complicating the Process
Baltic officially entered the luxury conversation in 2021 when it sold a 1940s-inspired mechanical watch that lets wearers detect their heartbeat for $55,000 at the bi-annual OnlyWatch charity auction, where the world’s most famous watch brands sell exclusive pieces.

But it takes more than a one-off piece to move upmarket. Baltic, whose vintage-inspired automatic watches typically cost around €700, is creating a higher-end line, Baltic Experiments. Those watches will feature a perpetual calendar — an advanced feature that displays days and months — and will retail for as high as €25,000 ($26,300). Baltic partnered with Swiss watch manufacturer Maclef to develop and produce the calendar, which is among the most sophisticated types of complications.

The first will be available at the forthcoming OnlyWatch auction in 2024, and the Baltic Experiments line — about 30 pieces — will get a wider commercial release as early as 2024.

While the brand won’t abandon or stop developing watches at more accessible price points, the premium line offers Baltic a chance to innovate and entice the most advanced of watch collectors.

“It’s a more complex process, more expensive process and a more ambitious process,” said Etienne Malec, Baltic’s founder and chief executive. “It’s a new start for us.”

Other brands have made permanent changes to their supply chain to create higher-end products. Back in 2014, Christopher Ward merged with Swiss watchmaker Synergies Horlogères to bring the process of developing movements — the engine that powers the watch — in-house. Having those capabilities allowed it to eventually produce pieces like the C1 Bel Canto line.

“We have increasingly been developing our own calibres [another name for movements],” said Mike France, co-founder and chief executive at Christopher Ward. “We wanted that sort of horological expertise in our business, something that we could own, that allowed us to go in directions that others wouldn’t go in.”

In addition to making higher-priced watches, Christopher Ward’s overall productivity has increased. This year, the company will make more than 30,000 watches, up from 20,000 in 2022. That volume increase will help the brand reach £125 million in annual sales in the next four years, with nearly 20 percent profit margins, France said.

The DTC Advantage
In their aim to increase visibility with high-spending watch enthusiasts, digitally-native micro brands have several factors working in their favour.

For starters, a growing number of customers are buying watches online. E-commerce will account for around 30 percent of DTC watch sales by 2025, according to estimates by McKinsey. But luxury brands like Rolex, Audemars Piguet and Patek Phillippe still generate most of their sales through their own physical stores and retail partners.

With a smaller customer base and a DTC sales model, micro brands can also communicate with their customers more directly — an attractive proposition for watch enthusiasts who want to converse with their sellers.

At Christopher Ward, six months after its 2005 launch, a client in The Netherlands set up an independently-run forum dedicated to the brand. That digital community now has more than 15,000 users who regularly praise (and criticise) Christopher Ward’s products.

“We read it all the time. It’s a constant source of information and it keeps us honest,” said Mike France, Christopher Ward’s co-founder and chief executive. “It also helps us develop new watches because these guys spend months of the year talking and discussing Christopher Ward watches.”

Newer micro brands have even tapped the watch community for seed funding: Baltic launched in 2017 after a successful Kickstarter campaign, where they raised €500,000, against a €65,000 goal. Malec already had a presence in the watch community, posting on popular forums and attending local collectors’ meetings, which led to a built-in audience when he announced the campaign on his social media.

The company continues to keep an open line with its customers. Each year, the founder Etienne Malec travels to at least four watch shows in the US, where more the 40 percent of the brand’s annual sales come from, to meet avid fans in-person, along with hosting small parties for collectors in London, Hong Kong and New York. Baltic is expecting to generate around €10 million in sales ($11 million), up from nearly €4 million In 2021.

By contrast, legacy watch brands tend to have a carefully-crafted, heritage-driven image to maintain, which often creates a barrier between them and their customers. But the big companies are beginning to take note of the benefit of these strategies.

“Larger brands are looking back and seeing how they can access this enthusiast audience,” said Zach Weiss, co-founder and executive editor at Worn & Wound. Legacy brands, he added, have approached the editors of the site “asking why aren’t your readers as interested in our brand as a smaller brand.”

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 27th of October 2023

>>> Up
* Addlife Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 102 kronor
* Cargotec Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 49 euros
* Centamin Raised to Outperform at BMO; PT 140 pence
* Corem Property Raised to Buy at Nordea; PT 8 kronor
* Fondia Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 6.80 euros
* Glaston Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 80 euro cents
* Intel Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT $33
* MFE Raised to Buy at AlphaValue/Baader
* Paradox Interactive Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 250 kronor
* QT Group Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 65 euros
* Remedy Entertainment Raised to Accumulate at Inderes
* Revenio Raised to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 20.50 euros
* Seagate Raised to Hold at Summit Insights
* SEB Raised to Buy at SocGen; PT 107 euros
* Trainline Raised to Overweight at JPMorgan; PT 300 pence
* Varonis Systems Raised to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $35
* Vincit Raised to Buy at Inderes; PT 4.30 euros

>>> Down
* Altria PT Cut to $42 from $47 at Cowen
* BHG Group Cut to Hold at SEB Equities; PT 11 kronor
* Comcast Cut to Sector Perform at Scotiabank; PT $49
* Enphase Energy Cut to Neutral at Piper Sandler; PT $75
* Euronav Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT 17.51 euros
* Gaussin Cut to Reduce at Kepler Cheuvreux; PT 70 euro cents
* Kerry Group Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 84 euros
* Paradox Interactive PT Cut to 215 kronor from 315 kronor at Citi
* Reckitt Cut to Hold at Berenberg; PT 6,400 pence
* Sanoma Cut to Reduce at Inderes; PT 7.50 euros
* SpareBank 1 Sorost-Norge Cut to Hold at DNB Markets
* TietoEVRY Cut to Hold at Pareto Securities; PT 20 euros
* Transocean Cut to Hold at Arctic Securities; PT $7

>>> Initiation
* CrowdFundMe Rated New Buy at Corporate Family Office; PT 3 euros
* Hornbach Holding Rated New Buy at Dr. Kalliwoda Equity Research
* Sanlorenzo/Ameglia Rated New Outperform at Mediobanca SpA
* Telekom Austria Resumed Neutral at Citi; PT 7 euros
* Tronox Cut to Neutral at JPMorgan; PT $11
* Valica Rated New Outperform at EnVent S.p.A.; PT 8.36 euros
* Zion Oil Rated New Overweight at Guotai Junan Sec; PT $154.80

>>> Call

>>> What to look at today - 27th of October 2023

Asian equities advanced amid cautious optimism that solid post-market US tech earnings are set to spur a rebound on Wall Street.  Shares traded higher in Hong Kong, while Australian, Japanese and South Korean stocks were also in the green. Mainland Chinese shares fluctuated after data on industrial companies’ profit showed growth, though slightly softer than in the prior period. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 climbed in the Asian session after the underlying benchmark fell 1.9% on Thursday. Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. both gained in after-trading hours after the tech-heavy index hit its lowest since May. The advance in US futures points to an early rebound when trading begins on Wall Street after the S&P 500 came to the brink of closing in correction territory. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher after falling Thursday following a solid seven-year bond auction and a rise in continuing jobless claims, an indication the US labor market is starting to crack despite still strong economic growth. Traders are now awaiting the PCE deflator print on Friday to solidify bets the Federal Reserve will pause next week. Still, swaps contracts project a roughly one in three chance of another Fed hike in the current tightening cycle, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Elsewhere, China’s industrial companies saw profits rise in September for a second straight month, in a further sign that policy support is helping the manufacturing sector recover. In currencies, the dollar fell, while the yen was steady after Tokyo inflation, an indicator of Japanese consumer cost pressures, unexpectedly accelerated for the first time in four months. Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated officials are watching currency moves with a high sense of urgency. Also in focus is the meeting between China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington. In his US visit, Wang said the two countries should have “in-depth” dialog as they need to address common interests and reduce misunderstandings, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.  Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with Israel’s military saying it killed Hamas’s deputy head of intelligence, who it said was responsible for helping plan the Oct. 7 attacks. The army overnight also made a limited ground raid into northern Gaza while Iran escalated its rhetoric with the US. West Texas Intermediate oil traded around $84-a-barrel, set for a weekly drop on the back of bearishness in equity markets. Gold was steady after two days of gains as the conflict in the Middle East continues to offer support for the precious metal. US After Hours COUR +17%, DXCM +14.7%, DECK +10.6%, INTC +8.8%, AMZN +3.6%, CMG +2.6% on upside; ENPH -16.9%, OLN -5%, SAM -4.8%, F -4.4% on downside.

Nikkei +1,22% Hang Seng +1.72% CSI +1.34% Shanghai +1.06% Shenzen +1.76%

Eur$ 1.0567 CNH 7.3193 CNY 7.3160 JPY 150.11 GBP 1.2135 CHF 0.8988 RUB 93.6727 TRY 28.1703 WTI$ 84.67 +0.21% Gold 1;989 BTC 34,100 ETH 1,795

S&P +0,59% Nasdaq +0,86% EuroStoxx +0,37% FTSE +0,11% Dax +0,21% SMI +0.16%

Macro :
- Evergrande Talks With Holdout Creditors Ahead of Wind-Up Hearing
- It's Getting Ugly in Stocks as Critical Supports Are Breaking

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Accor Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast
- AFRY SS : AFRY AB 3Q Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- AIR FP : SkyWest (SKYW) orders 19 Embraer E175 aircraft valued at $1.1 bln, according to Aviation Source News
- AF FP : Air France-KLM, Apollo Sign €1.3 Billion Quasi-Equity Financing
- AF FP : Air France-KLM 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates, Air France-KLM Posts Profit Jump Led by Strong Summer Demand
- AMUN FP : Amundi 3Q Net Inflows Beats Estimates, Defies Risk Aversion With Better-Than-Expected Inflows
- AKBP NO : Aker BP Narrows 2023 Output Guidance as Profit Meets Estimates
- ATE FP : Alten Cuts FY Organic Revenue Forecast
- BAS GY : Chemours Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- IAG LN : IAG 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- CABK SM : CaixaBank 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- CLAB SS : Cloetta 3Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- CFN PL : Cofina Approves Sale of Media Unit to Expressao Livre at EGM
- COFB BB : Cofinimmo 9M Adjusted EPS EU5.33 Vs. EU5.29 Y/y
- COV1 GY : Covestro FY Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- DANSKE DC : Danske Bank Narrows FY Net Income Forecast
- DEEZR FP : Deezer 3Q Revenue EU120.7M Vs. EU115.2M Y/y-
- EPROB SS : Electrolux Professional 3Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- ELIS FP : Elis 2023 Objectives Confirmed
- ENI IM : Eni 3Q Adjusted Net Income Beats Estimates
- ENI IM : ENI Approves Provision Second Tranche in Place of 2023 Dividend
- EQNR NO : Recticel Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- FARN LN : Faron Pharma Offers EU6 million Shares via Carnegie
- MCAA US : FC Barcelona’s Barca Media Amends SPAC Merger Pact
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty Cuts FY Current Operating Income Forecast
- FPE GY : FUCHS SE 9M Revenue EU2.70B Vs. EU2.54B Y/y
- HOFI SS : Hoist Finance 3Q Operating Income SEK916M Vs. SEK595M Y/y
- HOLN SW : Holcim AG Sees FY Recurring Ebit Margin Above +17%, Holcim Lifts Margin Guidance on Roofing Systems Demand
- HYQ GY : Hypoport FY Ebit Forecast Beats Estimates
- JNPR US : Juniper Sees 4Q Adj. Oper Margin About 18.6%, Est. 18.3%
- ML FP : Michelin to Wind Down 53-Year-Old Tire Plant in Oklahoma
- MONC IM : Moncler 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- MONC IM : Moncler Consensus Estimates Likely to Be Trimmed
- MONT BB : Paradox Interactive PT Cut to 215 kronor from 315 kronor at Citi
- NWG LN : NatWest 3Q Pretax Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- ONTEX BB : Ontex 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- RECT BB : Recticel Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- RCO FP : *REMY COINTREAU SEES FY ORGANIC REV. -15% TO -20%, EST. -6.01%
- RWI LN : Renewi Rejected Macquarie’s 810p/Share Bid; Plans Dividend
- SAF FP : Safran 3Q Adjusted Revenue Beats Estimates
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain 3Q Like-for-Like Sales Misses Estimates
- SK FP : SEB 3Q Operating Result From Activity Beats Estimates
- SESL FP ; SES-Imagotag 3Q Sales EU182.5M Vs. EU181.8M Y/y
- LIGHT NA : Signify 3Q Comparable Sales Misses Estimates
- SKFB SS : SKF Puts Aerospace Businesses Up For Sale After Strategic Review
- SOP FP : Sopra Steria 3Q Revenue EU1.35B
- STOCKA FH : Stockmann 3Q Adjusted Ebit EU20.6M Vs. EU22.0M Y/y
- TFI FP : Television Francaise 1 SA 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- THULE SS : Thule 3Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies CEO Isn’t Looking for Big Deals to Match US Rivals
- UBI FP : Ubisoft 2Q Net Bookings Beats Estimates
- UCG IM : UniCredit Gets ECB Approval for EU2.5B Tranche of Buyback
- UMG NA : UMG 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- URW FP : Unibail Sees FY Adj. Recurring EPS at Least EU9.50, Est. EU9.49
- X US : U.S. Steel 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates: Snapshot
- FR FP : Valeo 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- DG FP : Vinci 3Q Like-for-Like Sales +8.3%
- DG FP : Vinci Order Book Strong, Revenue a Small Beat: Street Wrap
- MF FP : Wendel 3Q Organic Revenue +5%
- XXL NO : XXL 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates

>>> What to look at today - 28th of October 2023

Asian equities advanced amid cautious optimism that solid post-market US tech earnings are set to spur a rebound on Wall Street.  Shares traded higher in Hong Kong, while Australian, Japanese and South Korean stocks were also in the green. Mainland Chinese shares fluctuated after data on industrial companies’ profit showed growth, though slightly softer than in the prior period. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 climbed in the Asian session after the underlying benchmark fell 1.9% on Thursday. Amazon.com Inc. and Intel Corp. both gained in after-trading hours after the tech-heavy index hit its lowest since May. The advance in US futures points to an early rebound when trading begins on Wall Street after the S&P 500 came to the brink of closing in correction territory. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher after falling Thursday following a solid seven-year bond auction and a rise in continuing jobless claims, an indication the US labor market is starting to crack despite still strong economic growth. Traders are now awaiting the PCE deflator print on Friday to solidify bets the Federal Reserve will pause next week. Still, swaps contracts project a roughly one in three chance of another Fed hike in the current tightening cycle, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.  Elsewhere, China’s industrial companies saw profits rise in September for a second straight month, in a further sign that policy support is helping the manufacturing sector recover. In currencies, the dollar fell, while the yen was steady after Tokyo inflation, an indicator of Japanese consumer cost pressures, unexpectedly accelerated for the first time in four months. Japan’s Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated officials are watching currency moves with a high sense of urgency. Also in focus is the meeting between China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi and US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Washington. In his US visit, Wang said the two countries should have “in-depth” dialog as they need to address common interests and reduce misunderstandings, the official Xinhua News Agency reported.  Meanwhile, traders are keeping a close eye on geopolitical developments in the Middle East, with Israel’s military saying it killed Hamas’s deputy head of intelligence, who it said was responsible for helping plan the Oct. 7 attacks. The army overnight also made a limited ground raid into northern Gaza while Iran escalated its rhetoric with the US. West Texas Intermediate oil traded around $84-a-barrel, set for a weekly drop on the back of bearishness in equity markets. Gold was steady after two days of gains as the conflict in the Middle East continues to offer support for the precious metal. US After Hours COUR +17%, DXCM +14.7%, DECK +10.6%, INTC +8.8%, AMZN +3.6%, CMG +2.6% on upside; ENPH -16.9%, OLN -5%, SAM -4.8%, F -4.4% on downside.

Nikkei +1,22% Hang Seng +1.72% CSI +1.34% Shanghai +1.06% Shenzen +1.76%

Eur$ 1.0567 CNH 7.3193 CNY 7.3160 JPY 150.11 GBP 1.2135 CHF 0.8988 RUB 93.6727 TRY 28.1703 WTI$ 84.67 +0.21% Gold 1;989 BTC 34,100 ETH 1,795

S&P +0,59% Nasdaq +0,86% EuroStoxx +0,37% FTSE +0,11% Dax +0,21% SMI +0.16%

Macro :
- Evergrande Talks With Holdout Creditors Ahead of Wind-Up Hearing
- It's Getting Ugly in Stocks as Critical Supports Are Breaking

Keep an eye on :
- AC FP : Accor Boosts FY Ebitda Forecast
- AFRY SS : AFRY AB 3Q Operating Profit Misses Estimates
- AIR FP : SkyWest (SKYW) orders 19 Embraer E175 aircraft valued at $1.1 bln, according to Aviation Source News
- AF FP : Air France-KLM, Apollo Sign €1.3 Billion Quasi-Equity Financing
- AF FP : Air France-KLM 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates, Air France-KLM Posts Profit Jump Led by Strong Summer Demand
- AMUN FP : Amundi 3Q Net Inflows Beats Estimates, Defies Risk Aversion With Better-Than-Expected Inflows
- AKBP NO : Aker BP Narrows 2023 Output Guidance as Profit Meets Estimates
- ATE FP : Alten Cuts FY Organic Revenue Forecast
- BAS GY : Chemours Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- IAG LN : IAG 3Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- CABK SM : CaixaBank 3Q Net Income Beats Estimates
- CLAB SS : Cloetta 3Q Operating Profit Beats Estimates
- CFN PL : Cofina Approves Sale of Media Unit to Expressao Livre at EGM
- COFB BB : Cofinimmo 9M Adjusted EPS EU5.33 Vs. EU5.29 Y/y
- COV1 GY : Covestro FY Ebitda Forecast Misses Estimates
- DANSKE DC : Danske Bank Narrows FY Net Income Forecast
- DEEZR FP : Deezer 3Q Revenue EU120.7M Vs. EU115.2M Y/y-
- EPROB SS : Electrolux Professional 3Q Ebit Misses Estimates
- ELIS FP : Elis 2023 Objectives Confirmed
- ENI IM : Eni 3Q Adjusted Net Income Beats Estimates
- ENI IM : ENI Approves Provision Second Tranche in Place of 2023 Dividend
- EQNR NO : Recticel Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- FARN LN : Faron Pharma Offers EU6 million Shares via Carnegie
- MCAA US : FC Barcelona’s Barca Media Amends SPAC Merger Pact
- FNAC FP : Fnac Darty Cuts FY Current Operating Income Forecast
- FPE GY : FUCHS SE 9M Revenue EU2.70B Vs. EU2.54B Y/y
- HOFI SS : Hoist Finance 3Q Operating Income SEK916M Vs. SEK595M Y/y
- HOLN SW : Holcim AG Sees FY Recurring Ebit Margin Above +17%, Holcim Lifts Margin Guidance on Roofing Systems Demand
- HYQ GY : Hypoport FY Ebit Forecast Beats Estimates
- JNPR US : Juniper Sees 4Q Adj. Oper Margin About 18.6%, Est. 18.3%
- ML FP : Michelin to Wind Down 53-Year-Old Tire Plant in Oklahoma
- MONC IM : Moncler 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- MONC IM : Moncler Consensus Estimates Likely to Be Trimmed
- MONT BB : Paradox Interactive PT Cut to 215 kronor from 315 kronor at Citi
- NWG LN : NatWest 3Q Pretax Operating Profit Meets Estimates
- ONTEX BB : Ontex 3Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- RECT BB : Recticel Cuts FY Adjusted Ebitda Forecast, Misses Estimates
- RCO FP : *REMY COINTREAU SEES FY ORGANIC REV. -15% TO -20%, EST. -6.01%
- RWI LN : Renewi Rejected Macquarie’s 810p/Share Bid; Plans Dividend
- SAF FP : Safran 3Q Adjusted Revenue Beats Estimates
- SGO FP : Saint-Gobain 3Q Like-for-Like Sales Misses Estimates
- SK FP : SEB 3Q Operating Result From Activity Beats Estimates
- SESL FP ; SES-Imagotag 3Q Sales EU182.5M Vs. EU181.8M Y/y
- LIGHT NA : Signify 3Q Comparable Sales Misses Estimates
- SKFB SS : SKF Puts Aerospace Businesses Up For Sale After Strategic Review
- SOP FP : Sopra Steria 3Q Revenue EU1.35B
- STOCKA FH : Stockmann 3Q Adjusted Ebit EU20.6M Vs. EU22.0M Y/y
- TFI FP : Television Francaise 1 SA 3Q Revenue Misses Estimates
- THULE SS : Thule 3Q Net Sales Misses Estimates
- TTE FP : TotalEnergies CEO Isn’t Looking for Big Deals to Match US Rivals
- UBI FP : Ubisoft 2Q Net Bookings Beats Estimates
- UCG IM : UniCredit Gets ECB Approval for EU2.5B Tranche of Buyback
- UMG NA : UMG 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates
- URW FP : Unibail Sees FY Adj. Recurring EPS at Least EU9.50, Est. EU9.49
- X US : U.S. Steel 3Q Adjusted EPS Beats Estimates: Snapshot
- FR FP : Valeo 3Q Revenue Meets Estimates
- DG FP : Vinci 3Q Like-for-Like Sales +8.3%
- DG FP : Vinci Order Book Strong, Revenue a Small Beat: Street Wrap
- MF FP : Wendel 3Q Organic Revenue +5%
- XXL NO : XXL 3Q Ebitda Misses Estimates

WWD : Dior’s New Icons, Charlotte Tilbury’s Award, Khaite’s New Baby

Dior’s New Icons, Charlotte Tilbury’s Award, Khaite’s New Baby
Kim Jones has introduced a Dior Icons line, Charlotte Tilbury will be recognized at The Fashion Awards, Khaite links with Bonpoint.


ICONS ONLY: Known for his elaborately embellished designs inspired by the Dior haute couture archive, Kim Jones wants men to know he is down with quiet luxury, too.

Hot on the heels of his denim capsule collection, the label’s artistic director of menswear is introducing a collection of timeless wardrobe essentials known as Dior Icons. Think tailored coats, cashmere sweaters and minimalist wide-leg pants, mixed with more casual pieces like a leather bomber jacket and jeans.

The line is launching on Dec. 1 in Dior boutiques, in tandem with an advertising campaign starring brand ambassador Robert Pattinson.

“I talked about clothing and fabrication with Robert a lot because he has a huge interest in fashion. I thought it would be perfect for him to wear Dior Icons because we discussed it in the conception of the collection. He is a good friend of mine so it seemed it would be nice for him to model in it,” Jones said in a statement.

The images were photographed by Alasdair McLellan, with art direction by Ronnie Cooke Newhouse and styling by Ellie Grace Cumming. Peter Philips did the makeup and Anthony Turner the hair.

Pattinson has been the face of the Dior Homme fragrance since 2013. The “Twilight” actor has also appeared in a series of menswear campaigns for the French fashion brand, starting with the fall 2016 ads shot by Karl Lagerfeld.

In addition to attending scores of Dior shows over the years, Pattinson starred opposite Gwendoline Christie in the film screened during the fall 2023 men’s show.

Alongside wardrobe staples in muted colors including gray, a favorite of founder Christian Dior, the Dior Icons collection includes accessories such as the Dior Gallop shoulder bag, available in a mini version with an aluminum buckle, and Dior Buffalo derby shoes.

Dior has launched several variations on the wardrobe essentials concept in recent years. In 2020, it introduced the Modern Tailoring capsule, and prior to that, the Dior Essentials line. All featured a range of elegant and more casual pieces designed to stand the test of time. — JOELLE DIDERICH

TILBURY’S AWARD: Makeup artist Charlotte Tilbury will receive the Special Recognition Award at The Fashion Awards, which take place in London on Dec. 4 at Royal Albert Hall.

The British Fashion Council, which organizes the awards event, a fundraiser for students and emerging designers, said the entrepreneur was receiving the award for her “contribution to the fashion industry” and “her visionary and innovative approach to beauty, creating global trends which have transcended the runways and red carpet and reshaped the industry.”

The makeup artist’s portfolio is prolific. She’s worked on more than 180 magazine covers; more than 600 editorial and advertising campaigns and with numerous fashion designers during show season.

“Britain is a trailblazer in fashion, so inspiring, innovative and dynamic. I am so grateful to have worked with some of the greatest creative geniuses in the fashion world, from photographers to designers, editors, stylists, icons and models to create pure beauty magic,” said Tilbury, founder, president, chairman and chief creative officer of her eponymous beauty empire.

“From my earliest days working as a makeup artist on shows and editorial, I have seen for myself the transformative power of makeup to help everyone feel and look like their most confident selves, and it has been the honor of my life to share that mission with the world through my brand. I truly believe that when you feel your most confident, you can change the world,” she added.

The awards will have a definite British accent this season with the likes of Grace Wales Bonner, Martine Rose, Maximilian Davis and Kim Jones among the nominees.

Meanwhile, designer Valentino Garavani will receive the Outstanding Achievement prize at The Fashion Awards for his “groundbreaking couture creations” and red carpet gowns.

Pandora is becoming principal partner of the awards. — HIKMAT MOHAMMED

YOUNG AT HEART: One can never be too young to embrace some New York cool.

Buzzy womenswear brand Khaite is collaborating with Bonpoint, offering sweaters, leggings and voluminous tops for babies, toddlers and children up to age 10.

The collection drops this week at Khaite and Bonpoint locations, and on their respective online stores. Wholesale partners for the launch include Bergdorf Goodman in New York, Harrods in London, Le Bon Marché in Paris and Mytheresa.com. Items retail from $110 to $730 for a limited time.

Catherine Holstein, founder and creative director of Khaite, birthed the collection while she was about to become a mother. Designing the collection while pregnant “was very meaningful. It is exciting to be able to offer our customer something special, and personal, like this collaboration,” she said.

Pierre-André Cauche, chief executive officer of Bonpoint, called Khaite “the ideal fashion partner as they share our commitment to quality and design.”

“The cross pollination between an accomplished American luxury brand with our French established luxury childrenswear house resulted in a unique collection willfully modern and timeless,” he added.

The collection comprises 11 styles, including a Fair Isle sweater with a side-button closure, a long-sleeve onesie with a contrasting collar, a pleated skirt, a cardigan, a cotton top with a ruffled collar, a structured blazer, and corduroy pants.

For the campaign, Holstein conscripted photographer Hanna Tveite, who also recently welcomed her first child. It features Holstein’s newborn son, “capturing the essence and heart of this collaboration,” according to Khaite. — MILES SOCHA

FT : Chipmaker Western Digital walks away from Kioxia merger talks

Chipmaker Western Digital walks away from Kioxia merger talks
Opposition from rival SK Hynix puts brakes on Bain Capital’s ambitions to create US-Japan chip giant

Western Digital has abruptly walked out of merger talks with Kioxia, shattering Bain Capital’s ambitions to create a US-Japan memory-chip champion, according to three people with direct knowledge of the talks.

The collapse in negotiations come after South Korean chipmaker SK Hynix, which has a significant stake in Kioxia, declared its opposition to the deal amid concerns that the combined entity could challenge its position in the Nand memory sector. Analysts said the merged entity’s market share would be double that of SK Hynix.

The merger talks had received substantial behind-the-scenes support from the US and Japanese governments. The move was viewed by both as a means of solidifying co-operation on semiconductor supply chains, said people with direct knowledge of the situation.

One participant in the talks said Western Digital’s sudden walkout was “genuinely shocking” after years of negotiations seemed to be nearing a conclusion.

But others were keen to stress that there was still hope that the US side could, even now, be coaxed back to the table. Two people involved in the discussions said the situation was “still fluid”, adding that there were pathways to allow talks to resume in the future.

SK Hynix had invested about $3.5bn in the Bain-led consortium that made a bid for Toshiba’s semiconductor unit, later renamed Kioxia, for $18bn in 2017. An agreement from SK Hynix and other investors in the consortium was needed for the deal to go through.

The 2017 deal, which itself followed months of exceptionally tormented negotiations and reversals, was the biggest ever led by a private equity firm in Japan and came to symbolise the huge ambitions that the global PE industry had for dealmaking in Japan. At the same time, bankers said, the difficulties experienced by Bain in securing either an IPO for Kioxia or a merger with Western Digital also highlighted the rising challenges of achieving a clean exit.

Bain shelved plans to list Kioxia in 2020 due to the Covid-19 pandemic and geopolitical uncertainty created by deteriorating US-China relations. Talks between Western Digital and Kioxia started the following year, but a merger was repeatedly delayed after multiple clashes between management teams, according to people close to the deal.

Kioxia is still exploring an initial public offering, but a drop in global demand for memory chips and continuing losses at the Japanese group have made the option unlikely for now.

Other investors in the consortium had expressed concerns about whether the tie-up would be strong enough to compete against industry leader Samsung, the people said.

Shares in Western Digital fell as much as 16 per cent on Thursday following news of the breakdown, which was first reported by Nikkei.

Kioxia, Bain and SK Hynix declined to comment. Western Digital did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

TechCrunch : OpenAI forms team to study ‘catastrophic’ AI risks, including nucle

OpenAI forms team to study ‘catastrophic’ AI risks, including nuclear threats

OpenAI today announced that it’s created a new team to assess, evaluate and probe AI models to protect against what it describes as “catastrophic risks.”

The team, called Preparedness, will be led by Aleksander Madry, the director of MIT’s Center for Deployable Machine Learning. (Madry joined OpenAI in May as “head of Preparedness,” according to LinkedIn.) Preparedness’ chief responsibilities will be tracking, forecasting and protecting against the dangers of future AI systems, ranging from their ability to persuade and fool humans (like in phishing attacks) to their malicious code-generating capabilities.

Some of the risk categories Preparedness is charged with studying seem more . . . far-fetched than others. For example, in a blog post, OpenAI lists “chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear” threats as areas of top concern where it pertains to AI models.

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is a noted AI doomsayer, often airing fears — whether for optics or out of personal conviction — that AI “may lead to human extinction.” But telegraphing that OpenAI might actually devote resources to studying scenarios straight out of sci-fi dystopian novels is a step further than this writer expected, frankly.

The company’s open to studying “less obvious” — and more grounded — areas of AI risk, too, it says. To coincide with the launch of the Preparedness team, OpenAI is soliciting ideas for risk studies from the community, with a $25,000 prize and a job at Preparedness on the line for the top ten submissions.

“Imagine we gave you unrestricted access to OpenAI’s Whisper (transcription), Voice (text-to-speech), GPT-4V, and DALLE·3 models, and you were a malicious actor,” one of the questions in the contest entry reads. “Consider the most unique, while still being probable, potentially catastrophic misuse of the model.”

OpenAI says that the Preparedness team will also be charged with formulating a “risk-informed development policy,” which will detail OpenAI’s approach to building AI model evaluations and monitoring tooling, the company’s risk-mitigating actions and its governance structure for oversight across the model development process. It’s meant to complement OpenAI’s other work in the discipline of AI safety, the company says, with focus on both the pre- and post-model deployment phases.

“We believe that . . . AI models, which will exceed the capabilities currently present in the most advanced existing models, have the potential to benefit all of humanity,” OpenAI writes in the aforementioned blog post. “But they also pose increasingly severe risks . . . We need to ensure we have the understanding and infrastructure needed for the safety of highly capable AI systems.”

The unveiling of Preparedness — during a major U.K. government summit on AI safety, not so coincidentally — comes after OpenAI announced that it would form a team to study, steer and control emergent forms of “superintelligent” AI. It’s Altman’s belief — along with the belief of Ilya Sutskever, OpenAI’s chief scientist and a co-founder — that AI with intelligence exceeding that of humans could arrive within the decade, and that this AI won’t necessarily be benevolent — necessitating research into ways to limit and restrict it.

WSJ : Apple Faces Potential Watch Import Ban After Federal Trade Ruling

Apple Faces Potential Watch Import Ban After Federal Trade Ruling
The tech giant can petition Biden administration or look to other options after a ruling it violated patents related to blood-oxygen sensor

A U.S. federal trade agency on Thursday found that Apple AAPL -2.46%decrease; red down pointing triangle violated the patent of a rival tech company, a ruling that could lead to an import ban for certain models of the company’s smartwatch.

The case revolves around medical-technology company Masimo MASI -1.81%decrease; red down pointing triangle, which alleged in a 2021 complaint to the U.S. International Trade Commission that Apple violated its patents related to measuring blood-oxygen levels. Apple has included a sensor, called a pulse oximeter, in most new models of the Apple Watch since 2020.

The commission found that Apple was in violation of U.S. trade law and issued a limited exclusion order on certain Apple Watches, banning their import into the U.S. The Biden administration has 60 days to overrule the trade commission’s decision.

There are several possible ways Apple could avoid a ban. The company also has the option to make changes to the Apple Watch—potentially in the software—that could avoid using the contested technology.

Apple could also seek to settle with Masimo. The two have been engaged in an ugly legal battle for the past few years, where Masimo has alleged that Apple stole its technology and poached its employees in order to launch a competing feature in the Apple Watch.

Apple said it would appeal the trade agency’s decision, which it said wouldn’t have an immediate impact on watch sales.

“Masimo has wrongly attempted to use the ITC to keep a potentially lifesaving product from millions of U.S. consumers while making way for their own watch that copies Apple,” an Apple spokeswoman said in a statement.

“Even the world’s largest company is not above the law,” Masimo Chief Executive Joe Kiani said in a statement. He said the ruling validated the company’s efforts to hold Apple accountable.

The relationship between Masimo and Apple began in 2013 when the two began exploring a partnership. Apple discussed potentially integrating Masimo’s technology into Apple products. The conversations between the two companies never ended up progressing.

At a later trial, it was revealed that Apple executives internally pitched the idea of buying Masimo and making Kiani vice president of medical technologies at Apple, according to court documents. But Apple decided against it because “acquisitions of this size aren’t our style,” an email reads. Masimo at the time of the talks was valued at more than $1 billion. Instead, Apple began hiring Masimo engineers and working on building the technology itself, Masimo said.

An Apple spokeswoman said that Masimo was one of many medical-technology companies it met with at that time. Apple opted to not work with Masimo because it viewed the company as more focused on clinical and medical applications rather than on consumers, the spokeswoman said.

A number of companies have complained about similar conduct by Apple over the years, The Wall Street Journal previously reported. The companies accused Apple of holding early partnership discussions with smaller companies and learning more about their technology. The companies said the conversations often don’t advance toward any type of partnership or acquisition—and they later see Apple launch a product or feature similar to theirs.

Apple has denied previous allegations that it copied smaller companies’ technology. When faced with claims of patent infringement, the company has said many of those patents are overly broad.

A company named AliveCor, which previously made Apple accessories that performed electrocardiograms, also alleged that Apple had violated its patents in launching similar health-sensing technology in the Apple Watch, starting in 2018. AliveCor said that in that year, Apple cut off access from its products, which previously integrated with the Apple Watch. The company sued Apple and complained to the trade commission, which ruled against Apple last year.

That ruling didn’t ultimately lead to negative repercussions for Apple. Apple was able to get AliveCor’s patents connected to the complaint invalidated through an appeal system at the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office. As a result of AliveCor losing the patents, the trade commission’s exclusion order on certain Apple Watches didn’t go through. AliveCor is currently appealing the patent office’s decision to revoke its patents.

FT : The era of relentless Swiss franc appreciation is coming to an end

The era of relentless Swiss franc appreciation is coming to an end
If the risk of wider regional conflict over Gaza recedes, the currency’s high valuation is unlikely to be sustained

Since the October 7 attacks carried out by Hamas in Israel, the Swiss franc has risen from already lofty levels to new all-time highs, reflecting its long status as a haven on currency markets in times of turmoil.

Clearly, the prospect of a wider regional conflict has spooked investors. Given the geopolitical uncertainties, it is, of course, too early to tell whether that risk occurs. But if the threat recedes, the franc’s current high valuation is unlikely to be sustained.

In June 2022, the Swiss National Bank started to favour a policy of implicit franc appreciation as a means of reducing imported inflation. It correctly judged that the rise in Swiss inflation had been driven largely by imported effects, and franc appreciation would reduce those effects. Since then, roughly speaking, the euro has fallen from 1.05 to 0.95 against the franc. Even the dollar, so strong against other major currencies recently, has fallen from 1.00 to a July level of 0.85.

The policy has been successful, since Swiss inflation is now back below 2 per cent, meaning that the SNB is the only major central bank currently hitting its inflation target. Its latest forecasts project headline inflation of about 2 per cent over the coming two years.

The key to this policy of nominal franc appreciation has been the use of the SNB’s large stockpile of foreign exchange reserves, built up over the previous decade. The SNB’s latest quarterly foreign exchange transaction data shows that since the first quarter of 2022, it has spent just over SFr100bn on interventions to prop up the franc, selling euros and dollars and buying the Swiss currency. Without these interventions, the franc would probably be weaker.


To get an idea of how overvalued the franc currently is, it is useful to look at its exchange rates with similar currencies. A cursory look shows that the Swiss franc is trading around 50 per cent above its pre-pandemic level against the yen. This is an astonishing development when we consider that relative inflation trends have been very similar.

At its September meeting, the SNB opted to maintain its deposit rate at 1.75 per cent, and indicated that it would remain on hold for a considerable period. In a typical “buy the rumour and sell the fact” move, the franc weakened as investors took profits on “long” positions in the currency. Investors then turned significantly short, betting on a fall in the franc, as shown by IMM futures data.


In its statement, the SNB noted that headline and core inflation were almost wholly domestically generated, meaning that imported inflation effects have more or less dissipated. With headline inflation set to continue falling in the major economies over the coming year, the implication is that the SNB will no longer need to spend its foreign exchange reserves to prop up the franc. The recent bout of risk aversion has clouded this development, but the principle remains intact. The upshot is that when the current phase of risk aversion passes, investors will look to short the currency once again.

The return of meaningful positive interest rates among the major G10 currencies means that carry trades are likely to come back into fashion. This involves selling low-yielding currencies and buying higher-yielding ones with the aim of pocketing the interest-rate differential. The spreads of nominal interest rates in Switzerland and big economies have widened meaningfully against the franc in recent months. And the “higher for longer” mantra from the major central banks means that these spreads will be sustained. This marks a big change from the last decade, when nominal rate spreads were absurdly low.


This implies that investors will increasingly look to use the franc as a funding currency once again, with the result that it will face modest weakening pressure. The franc has all the necessary characteristics to fulfil the role of a funding currency: Switzerland has low and falling inflation rates, stable interest rates and a current account surplus.

Franc-denominated capital flows are unlikely to match those of the period before the global financial crisis. We very much doubt that international regulators will allow individuals to take out franc-denominated mortgages as they once did, thus preventing any aggressive weakness in the currency such as that seen between 2002 and 2006.

However, it is clear that franc valuations have moved towards unsustainable levels on a bilateral basis, and we now have several catalysts for a change in the currency’s underlying trading regime. The era of relentless franc appreciation is indeed coming to an end.

FT : Opaque practices await UK regulators in private asset valuations probe

Opaque practices await UK regulators in private asset valuations probe
Insiders describe lack of transparency and poor methodology in some corners of the market

When UK regulators probe what private assets are really worth, they are likely to find a mix of rigour, guesswork and wishful thinking, industry insiders say.

The Financial Conduct Authority is expected to begin its review this year — a critical moment of scrutiny for a sprawling asset class that pension funds and other investors piled into as they hunted for returns during the long era of low interest rates.

Tracking the value of publicly traded stocks and bonds is easy. But private debt and equity and assets such as real estate and infrastructure are generally valued manually, and quarterly, using a wide range of techniques. Academics at business school Edhec wrote in a consultation paper submitted to the UK government last month that some of those methods for valuing infrastructure are “akin to fraud”.

“[It is] fundamentally a problem of data, which data is being used and how reliable is this data,” said Frédéric Blanc-Brude, founder of Scientific Infra, an offshoot of the French business school.

“Each one of those assets should say in the annual report how they are valued, all the details. If those numbers are strange or they never change, then that would prompt them to ask some questions and maybe avoid nasty surprises later on.”

His concern is primarily habitual poor practices on infrastructure valuations rather than the “rare” people who “may try to cook the books”. 

Even so, the FCA review reflects growing concern from global regulators about the potential for shocks in private assets, whose value hit $11.7tn last year, according to consultants at McKinsey. 

Regulators have three reasons to be worried.

Private assets more than doubled between 2017 and mid 2022, accounting for a record share of global financial assets, leading to fears that an upset there could ricochet across broader markets. 

Rising interest rates and slowing economic growth represent a danger to some private equity models, as highlighted by regulators including Iosco, which recently warned about difficulties in refinancing assets and potential fire sales.

The method for valuing the assets is a grey area. Owners are required to hold assets at “fair value” under accounting rules. Typically, private equity firms will use the valuations of comparable public companies as a guide for audits and investors. How accurate these are will only be determined when the asset is sold.

Carl Astorri, head of investments, Europe at AustralianSuper, Australia’s largest superannuation fund with about A$9bn in UK private markets, welcomed the review but said there is “an element of judgment in any valuation and its inputs. That, after all, is what makes a market.”

He added that AustralianSuper’s valuations are independently checked.

Judgment carries risks, especially when managers are incentivised to present a rosy picture for as long as they can, particularly if they are seeking to raise money from investors. It often also suits investors such as pension funds to cling on to upbeat, but stale, valuations.

“Private equity has the luxury of being able to kick the can down the road and hope for brighter tomorrow,” one valuations expert told the Financial Times, asking not to be named so he can speak freely on what he sees as questionable practices.

Valuation gaps are most apparent in listed private equity trusts, which trade on stock exchanges and should trade close to the value of their assets.

UK private equity trust net asset values are currently about 30 per cent above share price valuations, data from the Association of Investment Companies shows. That gap is close to a historic high, suggesting that share prices are cheap or asset valuations far in excess of what could be achieved in a sale tomorrow.

Nick Britton of the AIC said the private equity managers are “all saying the same thing: the valuations at which they’re holding investments on their balance sheets they believe are conservative and the evidence they’re presenting is that when they’ve exited investments in the last decade, it’s consistently been at an uplift to their valuation”.

While listed private equity has traded at a discount since the financial crisis, “they’re struggling to understand how extreme it is at the moment”, he added.

Real estate and infrastructure are particularly sensitive. Interest rate rises and infrequent valuations mean “there is potential for there to be some inaccuracies”, said Nick Knight, executive director of valuation advisory services at CBRE.

Infrastructure valuations rely on assumptions about future cash flows, which are heavily dependent on the inputs that Edhec says should be made public. If the inputs are outdated, valuations can miss an impending crisis, as illustrated by this year’s collapse of Thames Water.


The British Private Equity & Venture Capital Association said its members’ valuation methods were subject to regulation and annual external audits, and followed relevant accounting standards. Its members deliver “robust valuations to ensure global institutions can invest confidently in the asset class”.

But experienced market professionals describe issues in an industry increasingly targeting rich individuals alongside large institutions such as pension funds, and one with an influx of relative newcomers.

A valuations specialist recalled a call earlier this year with a private equity manager seeking advice on whether he would have to cut the value of an asset because of new regulations.

When the specialist said the cut was unavoidable, the chief financial officer of the private equity manager asked his team, also on the call, to “see which other assets we can increase the value of to offset this”.

Another issue, the valuations specialist said, was that private equity owners often presented investors with confusing marketing.

Chris Addy, chief executive of Castle Hall Diligence, a provider of due diligence services, said some private equity managers will “try to manipulate information and present the auditors with data . . . when the reality is that the underlying businesses are struggling in the market and may not be able to service their debt”.

The outcome of the UK’s review is not likely to become clear until the middle of next year, but regulators privately say they may act sooner on individual bad practices. 

Still, while private equity firms face their worst year for exiting their investments in a decade, the good news for them is that they are under no pressure to sell.

“The advantage of investment companies is that they don’t have a limited life, they are evergreen unless shareholders decide to wind up, so no pressure to sell investments at a disadvantageous time. Clearly it’s a long-term investment,” said Britton.  

“We’d say you’d look to hold this for 10 years at least. You’d expect these things to resolve themselves over time, rates normalise . . . but things can always get worse before they can get better.”