FT : Ceres Power/hydrogen: hype bubble needs plenty of time to reflate

Ceres Power/hydrogen: hype bubble needs plenty of time to reflate
UK companies that help produce hydrogen will remain niche investments for a couple more years

Hydrogen is 14 times lighter than air. But market forces have brought any stocks related to the gas back to earth with a thud.

A hydrogen hype cycle in early 2020 lifted the market capitalisation of companies such Ceres Power close to that of FTSE 100 utility Centrica. Ceres, worth £2.7bn in early 2021, today is just £419mn.

Ceres has created technology that can produce hydrogen from steam. Its first 1 megawatt electrolyser will shortly be shipped to a Shell research and development centre in India, it said on Tuesday.

This is not the turning point for Ceres. The solid oxide electrolyser is just a prototype. Its fuel cell technology — which turns hydrogen and oxygen into electricity — is more advanced. But it does not intend to manufacture either product.

Ceres licenses its technology and hopes to reap royalties from manufacturing partners. It thus has a less capital-intensive business than say local peer ITM Power which does make its equipment.

Germany’s Bosch and South Korea’s Doosan are early fuel cell partners for Ceres. Both have factories due to open next year. However, a hoped-for joint venture in China is yet to materialise, despite agreeing basic terms last year.

Its growth investment rose 67 per cent last year to £58.4mn, including £12.4mn in capital expenditure as it developed its electrolyser prototype. This should soon peak. Meanwhile revenues, £22.1mn in 2022, are forecast to nearly triple by the end of 2025 as Ceres hopes to start receiving royalties. It should turn a profit in 2027, according to Visible Alpha estimates.

Cash should not be a concern for Ceres, though. It raised £181mn in early 2021. At the end of June, cash stood at £161mn. Though it should get through about £50mn this year, that pace will fall in coming years.

Cleanly produced hydrogen will be needed in large quantities to meet 2050 net zero targets. Even so, UK companies that help produce it will remain niche investments for a couple more years yet.

FT : Tech groups fear new powers will allow UK to block encryption

Tech groups fear new powers will allow UK to block encryption
Signal president urges ministers to clarify provisions in proposed legislation

Tech groups have called on ministers to clarify the extent of proposed powers that they fear would allow the UK government to intervene and block the rollout of new privacy features for messaging apps.

The investigatory powers amendment bill, which was set out in the King’s Speech on Tuesday, would oblige companies to inform the Home Office in advance about any security or privacy features they want to add to their platforms, including encryption.

At present, the government has the power to force telecoms companies and messaging platforms to supply data on national security grounds and to help with criminal investigations.

The new legislation was designed to “recalibrate” those powers to respond to risks posed to public safety by multinational tech companies rolling out new services that “preclude lawful access to data,” the government said.

But Meredith Whittaker, president of private messaging group Signal, urged ministers to provide more clarity on what she described as a “bellicose” proposal amid fears that, if enacted, the new legislation would allow ministers and officials to veto the introduction of new safety features.

“We will need to see the details, but what is being described suggests an astonishing level of technically confused government over-reach that will make it nearly impossible for any service, homegrown or foreign, to operate with integrity in the UK,” she told the Financial Times.

Previously, Meta and Apple, which offer encryption on WhatsApp, and iMessage and FaceTime, respectively, have warned that they will remove any services from the UK if the government seeks to compromise those features.

Meta plans to extend encryption, which prevents anyone other than the users communicating with each other from accessing the messages, to Facebook Messenger by the end of the year.

The messaging platforms have tens of millions of users in Britain.

Whittaker said it was “imperative” for tech groups to improve privacy settings to “defend core technical infrastructure from hackers and other hostile actors”, which was “clearly not comprehended by those behind these changes”. 

She added that the “lack of judicial due process” from the government was “deeply alarming”, although “sadly not out of character”.

TechUK, a trade group, warned in its response to the government’s consultation that new investigatory powers legislation as envisaged could oblige companies to comply with a warrant from the Home Office to hand over user data even while a review into the appropriateness of the request is ongoing.

Julian David, chief executive of TechUK, said that the Home Office had “simply not engaged sufficiently with businesses” over the legislation, “driving concerns that changes to the regime could be expansive and disproportionate”.

He added: “This must be rectified at the earliest opportunity to ensure that any changes . . . are effective, informed and focused on addressing any capability gaps the Home Office is able to evidence.”

The threats to remove services come amid a wider sector backlash against a range of government policies, which tech groups say threaten to undermine the privacy and the integrity of their products, including the online safety bill, which passed into law last month.

Apple warned the government in its response to the consultation on the proposed legislation in July, that certain elements of the investigatory powers bill could force tech companies “to publicly withdraw critical security features from the UK market, depriving UK users of these protections”.

WhatsApp has also threatened to exit the UK if forced by the government to break encryption.

The Home Office said the bill would “deliver urgent and targeted changes needed to protect the British public from criminals . . . by enabling intelligence agencies and law enforcement to keep pace with these evolving threats”.

It added: “We have always been clear that we support strong encryption where public safety is designed in, but this cannot come at a cost to public safety and we will not outsource the security of our citizens to unaccountable multinational companies.”

Meta declined to comment. Apple did not respond to a request for comment.

FT : Iran’s interests are trumping the Palestinian tragedy

Iran’s interests are trumping the Palestinian tragedy
Tehran is staring at the very real prospect of confrontation with the US and Israel — and appears to have quietly decoupled its interests from those of the Palestinians

Lebanon, and perhaps much of the world, breathed a sigh of relief on Friday when Hassan Nasrallah, leader of the powerful Lebanese paramilitary group Hizbollah, finally spoke after four weeks of silence. He sounded like a warrior but didn’t declare war. Lebanon would be spared all-out confrontation with Israel — for now. Many Palestinians felt betrayed, not out of a desire for more conflict, but out of desperation for some back-up amid the devastating Israeli pounding of Gaza.

But Nasrallah’s speech was an opening gambit in Tehran’s negotiations with the US for its future place in the region, at a critical juncture not only for the Middle East but for the Islamic Republic. Tehran’s top priorities are regime stability, amid domestic political and economic pressures, safeguarding as many of its regional assets as possible and ensuring a smooth succession for the 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei when the time comes.

Iran has spent the past 44 years using the Palestinian cause to advance its own interests and enhance its standing with Arabs — it promises to liberate Jerusalem by using proxies to attack Israel far from its own borders, threatens America and generally plays a disruptive role. But the Palestinian element of the strategy appears to have run its course after Hamas’s incursion into Israel on October 7 brought not only retaliatory wrath down upon Gaza, but also the largest US military build-up in the region in decades.

Whether Iran knew of Hamas’s plans or not, it seems not to have anticipated the scale of the operation and the backlash. Tehran is suddenly staring at the very real prospect of direct confrontation with the US and Israel — and it appears to have quietly decoupled its interests from those of the Palestinians.

Over the past year, both Nasrallah and the head of Iran’s Quds Force, Esmail Qaani, spoke of co-ordinating Iran’s proxies and unifying fronts against Israel. But in his speech, Nasrallah said the Hamas operation was “the result of a 100 per cent Palestinian decision”. So much for unity.

This of course conveniently helps avoid direct retaliation. But Nasrallah added that those who thought the operation or its timing served Iran’s interests were wrong. Tehran is setting its own course.

Last month, Khaled Meshaal, a top Hamas official, complained that the group had expected more support from Hizbollah. But when he spoke, Nasrallah made clear the cavalry wasn’t coming. Iran views Lebanon as a forward defence base with Hizbollah as a key line of defence should the regime come under direct threat — it cannot sacrifice this asset for the Palestinians.

Instead, Tehran will increasingly poke America in Syria and Iraq while Hizbollah will do just enough from southern Lebanon to show it is helping Hamas. Sixty-one Hizbollah fighters have already been killed, a high number that has shocked their base, considering the low-intensity warfare on the border. Nasrallah explained it away by claiming that Hizbollah’s tactics are keeping one-third of Israel’s army busy on its northern border.

Nasrallah did warn escalation was possible if the war on Gaza doesn’t stop or if Israel oversteps the rules of engagement with Hizbollah. Nasrallah understands the rhythm of war well. He knows no US administration has ever called on Israel to cease fire within days or even a couple of weeks of a conflict erupting. He chose to speak after four weeks and more than 10,000 Palestinian deaths, his warning conveniently coinciding with President Joe Biden’s first call for “tactical pauses”. Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu now appears to have tacitly agreed to such pauses.

There are now two wars evolving in parallel: the direct one between Hamas and Israel, and the indirect one waged by Tehran. This also means parallel tracks of diplomacy: the first is the immediate urgent task of protecting Palestinian civilians, releasing Israeli hostages, bringing in aid to Gaza and reaching a ceasefire. Biden has also put the peace process and a two-state solution back on the agenda. But the longer Israel’s attack on Gaza continues, even with pauses, the harder it will be for Arabs to engage and for Saudi Arabia to salvage efforts at normalisation.

Iran also benefits from the war dragging on. It may be in a tight spot now but it is adept at turning moments of jeopardy into opportunity. This weekend, Nasrallah will speak again while Iran’s president, Ebrahim Raisi, will make his first visit to Riyadh to attend the summit of the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. The Saudis should ask Raisi not just what Iran wants but what it’s willing to give up, from Lebanon to Iraq.

WSJ : Signature Loan Sale Likely to Lower Commercial-Property Values

Signature Loan Sale Likely to Lower Commercial-Property Values
The bank’s assets are expected to sell on average 15% to 40% below their original face amount

The sale of Signature Bank’s $33 billion in commercial-property loans and other assets is expected to attract bids as much as 40% below face value, offering new evidence of how much property prices have eroded.

Regulators closed Signature Bank in March after a run on its deposits, marking the fourth-largest bank failure in U.S. history. Now, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is auctioning off thousands of Signature loans backed by apartment buildings and other commercial properties primarily in the New York region.

Bids are due Thursday on what is the biggest and most closely watched commercial-property sale of the year. Loans are expected to sell on average 15% to 40% below their original face amount, according to prospective bidders.

Those discounts will likely affect values of New York commercial property for a number of years. The market will get an initial data point from the coming loan sale and again when the loans are resolved, either through a payoff, a loan sale or a foreclosure, said D. Michael Van Konynenburg, president of real-estate investment-banking firm Eastdil Secured.

Signature’s loan sale will provide the ailing commercial real-estate market with one of the clearest benchmarks for how badly values have been eroded by the jump in interest rates and the weak return-to-office rate.

Most of Signature’s loans are performing. Nevertheless, the FDIC and Newmark Group, the real-estate firm running the sale, are going to have to sell them at discounts partly because they were made when interest rates were a lot lower than today. An investor would want a discount to buy a loan paying a 6% interest rate if comparable debt issued today is paying 9%.

Some of the loans are for lackluster midblock office buildings in Manhattan, which are suffering high vacancy rates because of the work-from-home trend of the pandemic. Buyers of the loans also will likely face problems down the road when borrowers have to refinance mortgages made when rates were lower.

About half of the offering consists of pools of loans backed by apartment buildings with rents regulated by a city board. Annual rent increases at these buildings are typically kept to very low levels.

Many of these buildings rapidly have declined in value since 2019, when the New York State Legislature ended special exceptions that had allowed landlords to increase rents in excess of the city board’s level.

Investors once spent billions bidding up the price of rent-regulated buildings because they knew they could achieve higher rents through those exceptions. “Now, anybody who bought with that expectation, those expectations are not going to be met anymore,” said Zachary Rothken, a real-estate attorney at Rosenberg & Estis.

Just how far values have fallen on these properties is difficult to pinpoint, but at some buildings where all apartments are regulated, values have fallen as much as 70%, according to the Community Housing Improvement Program, a landlord trade group that cited building-sales data and discussions with brokers.

The FDIC has said it plans to retain a 95% stake in the pools with a rent-regulated loan portfolio, partly because of its statutory obligation to preserve affordability for low- and moderate-income renters.

WWD : Valentino Unveils Mega Flagship in New York

Valentino Unveils Mega Flagship in New York
Located on 654 Madison Avenue, the flagship, which opens with an exhibition of works by artist Mario Schifano, marks an important strategic moment for the couture house's retail approach worldwide.

MILAN – The building housing the new Valentino flagship on 654 Madison Avenue “is a perfect synthesis of the best architecture in New York,” believes creative director Pierpaolo Piccioli, and is “an experience in itself.”

The store in the storied building — it previously was home to Calvin Klein’s iconic Manhattan flagship designed by John Pawson — opens to the public Wednesday and is based on Valentino’s new global retail concept, established last year in-house, directly by Piccioli and his team. But the designer said that for the New York store, he let himself “be led and inspired by the Genius Loci, the spirit of the location,” with its “permanent signs that allow you to recognize [it as]something already known to memory,” he contended. “There is a tangible familiarity that makes New York a bit of a special place for everyone, also for those who have not visited it yet.”

The flagship marks an important strategic moment for Valentino’s retail approach worldwide, after the opening of boutiques in Florence and Paris last June, followed by Shanghai at Plaza 66 a month later, among others.

“Our intention is to bring Valentino around the world,” said Piccioli, while respecting each location. “It is undeniable that every location is unique, and in particular in Madison we let the interiors determine the path we should take. I like to interact with the locations, to create an exchange based on respect and curiosity,” he continued. “I like to think that opening a store can also have a cultural value that is every time a possibility to bring who we are into the world.”

The New York unit also reflects Valentino’s development since the arrival of chief executive officer Jacopo Venturini in June 2020, who worked with Piccioli on repositioning the brand as a couture house. This strategy is exemplified by the Madison Avenue flagship, said the executive, “with the goal to raise the values that characterize us in a strategic way in the city.”

North America accounts for 20 percent of global retail sales through directly operated stores. Taking wholesale and non-DOS into account, the weight is of around 25 percent.

As per the latest figures available reported in April, in the 12 months ended Dec. 31, sales at the Rome-based couture house reached 1.42 billion euros, climbing 15 percent compared with 1.23 billion euros in 2021. Venturini has been rebalancing wholesale versus retail by increasingly reducing the wholesale activity “to focus only on working with selected partners that reflect our brand values and sustain our business strategy and vision,” explained Venturini at the time.
The ground floor of the Valentino New York flagship.

Directly operated retail generated 62 percent of sales in 2022 compared to 54 percent in 2019. The goal is for that channel to represent 80 percent of the total by 2025 or 2026.

Valentino’s SoHo boutique in Manhattan will reopen by the end of 2023, said Venturini.

There are 30 Valentino directly operated stores and 27 doors in the U.S. The company is not forsaking wholesale entirely and in the U.S. it works with department stores including Saks Fifth Avenue, Bergdorf Goodman, Neiman Marcus, Nordstrom and Bloomingdale’s.

“Madison Avenue is a key location renowned around the world, which attracts local and international customers,” said Venturini. “We will offer an experiential, tailored and client-centric journey that also includes two VIP areas.”

Asked about the American consumer, Piccioli said that he would “rather think of people, and rather than a geographic area, think of a community.” Valentino’s customers, he said, “are people who choose to embrace a vision that is certainly communicated through a precise aesthetic but that draws strength also from sharing the same values.” There will be specific experiences that include capsule collections, “but all integrated and narrated through the same, shared sentiment.”

Set over three stories that include basement, ground floor, a mezzanine and a second floor, the nearly 12,333-square-foot’s store facade is marked by imposing columns and tall windows.

The building is monumental with ceilings as high as 23 feet, exposed steel columns running across all floors and a rough concrete finish over the perimeter punctuated by illuminated shelving for Valentino Garavani accessories.
The Valentino Garavani accessories on display in the New York flagship.

Each floor hinges on a distinctive visual narrative based on chromatic compositions and carefully curated materials and palettes, including Valentino’s signature red, rendered in several different iterations.

There is a striking contrast between rationalist architecture and warmer, cocooning spaces. Piccioli explained that, since concrete is a significant part of the construction, materials were a key focus, “integrating marbles and tracing the spaces almost in an intangible way through structures that, in addition to being useful as displays, also create thematic areas but in a fluid way, rather than schematic.”

The building’s mezzanine is a concrete box facing the boutique’s ground floor on one side and it will be dedicated to temporary art displays, debuting through a partnership with New York museum Magazzino Italian Art, presenting five large-scale paintings by Mario Schifano. This collaboration strengthens Valentino’s ongoing commitment to global art and visual culture and pays tribute to contemporary Italian painting.


The exhibition of Mario Schifano works at Valentino’s New York flagship.

“The idea of an artistic experience in the store is in sync with our intention to offer a welcoming location which will communicate the values of the brand, maximizing the opportunities that the location offers,” said Piccioli. The designer said that bringing Schifano to New York allows the brand to showcase one of the main artists in the world — from Rome, to boot, where Valentino is headquartered — “conceptually summarizing the way Valentino can be perceived in the world.”
With Magazzino Italian Art, Valentino will collaborate on a series of exhibitions featuring works by renowned Italian artists and talks will be hosted in the new store in the coming months, promoting cross-cultural dialogue. Magazzino has unveiled the new Robert Olnick Pavilion and the collaboration with Valentino is an extension of the exhibition “Mario Schifano: The Rise of the ‘60s”, currently on view at the museum in Cold Spring, N.Y.

Over the years the Valentino on Canvas projects have shined a light on contemporary and emerging painters and sculptors. In Shanghai and Beijing in 2020 and 2021, the house staged two physical experiences, “Re-signify Parts I and II,” where the codes of the fashion house were interpreted by and presented alongside contemporary art and visual research. Last year the company sponsored the Italian Pavilion at the 59th Biennale di Venezia, supporting the work of artist Gian Maria Tosatti in the pavilion’s first-ever sole exhibition. Recently Valentino collaborated with contemporary artists for Frieze in Singapore and Seoul and sponsored an exhibition dedicated to Italian contemporary painting slated to run to Feb. 11 at Milan’s Triennale museum.

Customers enter the new store through a pair of grand double doors with sculptural marble handles, their organic shapes modeled on works by artisans, whose work appears in different guises throughout the brand’s stores worldwide. The same handles with organic shapes are present inside the store made in ceramic and modeled by ceramicist Massimiliano Pipolo.

The space is divided into different functions through bespoke elements that include an imposing green onyx display unit placed at the center, and different materials and textures, such as marble carpets and concrete on the floors, outlining areas and functions.


Footwear is displayed in one area with floors and seating in a travertine red contrasting with the luminous onyx and concrete shelving. The brand’s ready to wear offer is separated from the main store by concrete shelving and an immersive, box-like effect is reinforced there by red velvet cladding walls and bespoke seating.

The women’s collections on the ground floor.

Leading upstairs is a monumental staircase that anchors the space from the back, with a rationalist, asymmetric composition of marbles, including red Travertino, white Botticino and black Nero Marquina. The staircase’s red stone forms the perimeter of the adjacent ready-to-wear box.

On the second floor, Valentino’s women’s rtw collection displays are defined by a giant red lacquered wardrobe structure and matching seating, contrasting with the checkered floor in white Botticino and black Nero Marquina marbles.
The women’s ready-to-wear area in Valentino’s New York flagship.

Here, there are two VIP areas where the ivory environment references the house’s ateliers and an apartment-like setting, each featuring a sitting room and dressing area. Bespoke seating and furniture are combined with contemporary chandeliers by American lighting specialist Roll & Hill, chairs by Charles Zana and ceramic objects by Massimiliano Pipolo.

The brand’s menswear in the basement is defined by a different color narrative, descending through Botticino, red Travertino and Marquina stairs. Here, stark concrete and black parquet contrast with brightly illuminated shelving.

Next door, a warmer environment is achieved with lilac flooring matched with mirrored columns, bespoke glass displays and angular green onyx shelving. A 1970s DeSede Snake sofa and Mario Bellini’s 1970s Camaleonda sofas and poufs from the same era appear throughout the boutique.
The menswear area of the Valentino Madison Avenue flagship.

FT : French prosecutors examine claims of market manipulation against Sanofi

French prosecutors examine claims of market manipulation against Sanofi
Preliminary probe looks into financial communications around 2017 launch of group’s blockbuster drug Dupixent

France’s financial prosecutor has opened a preliminary investigation of pharmaceutical group Sanofi over allegations of market manipulation related to the launch of its hit drug Dupixent in 2017. 

The prosecutor’s office, which opened the probe in March, is looking into allegations of “dissemination of false or misleading information and price manipulation” concerning financial communications by the group, according to a judicial official. The next step may or may not be a formal investigation, depending on the evidence.

Sanofi said: “We stand by the accuracy of our accounts,” adding that it “reserves the right to take legal action against any false or defamatory allegations”. The probe was first reported by French publication La Lettre A.

Dupixent, which is used to treat asthma and eczema, is Sanofi’s best-selling product. Sales increased 35 per cent in the first nine months of the year to €7.7bn, about a quarter of its total sales for the period. Shortly after he began in the role in September 2019, chief executive Paul Hudson said he wanted to increase sales of the drug and obtain approval for its wider use.

Dupixent sales subsequently quadrupled from €2bn in 2019 to €8.3bn in 2022. However, investors have become worried about the company’s dependence on Dupixent, which it developed with US biotech Regeneron. 

Sanofi has marketed new prescription drugs recently — including haemophilia treatment Altuviiio, and Beyfortus for respiratory syncytial virus in young children — as it works to improve its drug pipeline. The company also acquired a type 1 diabetes treatment as part of its $2.9bn takeover of Provention Bio in March. 

In October, Sanofi announced plans to spin off its consumer care division and increase investment in research and development as part of efforts to focus on new treatments for cancer and rare diseases. Sanofi said the spin-off could take place by the end of next year, most likely through a listing in Paris.

However, a cut to earnings forecasts because of the increased R&D budget caused shares to fall almost 20 per cent in one day, and they have remained in that range.

Shares fell 2 per cent on Tuesday to trade at about €84, giving Sanofi a market capitalisation of €106bn. 

As part of turnaround plans announced when he took over as chief, Hudson said he would shift the company to focus on speciality medicines for cancer and rare diseases, moving it away from the mass-market products that had been its core business. Sanofi has since restructured its consumer division as a standalone business within the company.