>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 2nd of August 2023

>>> Up
* Nemetschek Raised to Add at Baader Helvea; PT 72 euros
* Nestle Raised to Buy at HSBC; PT 120 Swiss francs
* Oshkosh Raised to Outperform at Baird; PT $137
* Siltronic Raised to Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 98 euros

>>> Down
* Allegro Cut to Accumulate at Erste Group; PT 41 zloty
* Aperam Cut to Underweight at JPMorgan; PT 22.70 euros
* ZoomInfo Cut to Peerperform at Wolfe

>>> Initiation
* Big Technologies Rated New Buy at Peel Hunt; PT 383 pence
* HUTCHMED China Rated New Buy at Citi; PT 321.75 pence

>>> Call
* Goldman Strategists Say Fade the Rally in US Cyclical Stocks
* Nemetschek Upgraded at Baader on Scope For Multiple Expansion

>>> What to look at today - 2nd of August 2023

Asia stocks fell as Fitch Ratings’ downgrade of the US sovereign rating soured risk sentiment following a strong recent run, while further support measures from China failed to reverse the mood.  An Asia Pacific equity gauge headed for the biggest decline in almost a month. Equities in Hong Kong and mainland China extended losses, while Japanese stocks dropped as a stronger yen dented the outlook for corporate profit. Some profit taking may be taking place after a broad uptrend in Asian shares following China’s Politburo meeting. Focus appears to be shifting to the effectiveness of the policy support as earlier optimism cools.  Fitch’s rating cut, announced before markets opened in Asia, initially pushed Treasuries higher before the moves stabilized, leaving the two-year yield down one basis point.  Investors say Fitch’s US downgrade to AA+ from AAA will do little to deter the top-notch status of US assets over the longer-term, citing a lack of alternatives and the economy’s solid growth. They are also taking cues from what transpired in the wake of a similar event in 2011, when S&P Global Ratings removed the highest rating for the US following an earlier debt-ceiling crisis. While that triggered a selloff in risk assets around the world, it boosted Treasuries as investors sought out havens. Contracts for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 were down around 0.5%. The S&P 500 had finished Tuesday with a small loss as the rally that drove the stock market up almost 30% from its October lows took a breather.  A gauge of the dollar ticked slightly higher, reversing an earlier loss. Still, the greenback was weaker against most of its Group-of-10 peers.  The latest US data suggested some softening in demand for workers in a still tight US labor market. The numbers weren’t enough to entice investors, who also grappled with a mixed bag of corporate earnings.    Advanced Micro Devices Inc. gained in late trading after the company topped second-quarter estimates and said it was making further inroads in artificial-intelligence computing. Starbucks Corp. dropped as its quarterly sales fell short of analysts’ estimates, a sign that momentum may be slowing for the coffee giant amid higher prices and tighter pocketbooks. Oppenheimer Asset Management’s John Stoltzfus now sees the S&P 500 index hitting 4,900 by the end of the year, leaving room for another 7% gain. The target change came a day after Morgan Stanley’s Michael Wilson, one of the market’s leading doomsayers, sounded less bearish than usual. 
Stoltzfus’s target would mark a new record for the gauge and one that plays out against bearish predictions by prominent Wall Street names such as Wilson, JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic and Bank of America Corp.’s Michael Hartnett. Oil extended its rally after an industry estimate pointed to a huge drawdown in US inventories, adding to signals the market is tightening. Gold edged higher. US After Hours US cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA"; CDLX +20.9%, ELF +16.9%, TEX +4.8%, AMD +3.8% higher on earnings; CMBM -23.9%, AXTA -13.6%, SEDG -11.8%, PAYC -8.5%, EA -3.4%, PINS -3.4% lower on earnings.

Nikkei -2,43% Hang Seng -2,32% CSI -0,86% Shanghai -0,99% Shenzen -0,49%

Eur$ 1,0999 CNH 7,1897 CNY 7,1790 JPY 142,74 GBP 1,2786 CHF 0,8743 RUB 92,0158 TRY 26,9683 WTI$ 82,08 Gold 1949 BTC 29,630 +1,5% ETH 1,860

S&P -0,47% Nasdaq -0,66% EuroStoxx -0,79% FTSE -0,53% Dax -0,91% SMI -1,08%

Macro :
- Goldman Strategists Say Fade the Rally in US Cyclical Stocks
- JPMorgan’s Trading Desk Says Record S&P 500 ‘Feels Inevitable’
- BofA Says Wall Street Chasing Rally at Fastest Pace in Two Years
- Loeb’s Third Point Laments Missing ‘Obvious’ Tech Rally, Eyes AI
- MicroStrategy Returns to Profitability With Rebound in Bitcoin

Keep an eye on :
- AED BB : Aedifica 1H EPRA EPS EU2.76 Vs. EU2.36 Y/y
- ALT FP : Saade, Niel Interested in Altice France Media Operations: Figaro
- ARM LN : *SOFTBANK'S ARM IS SAID TO TARGET $60B-PLUS VALUE IN SEPT. IPO
- AG1 GY : AUTO1 Boosts FY Adjusted Ebitda Loss Forecast
- BNP FP : Inbursa Reaches Deal to Acquire 80% of BNP Paribas Mexico Unit
- DRW3 GY : Draeger Recalls Carina Ventilators Due to Possible Contamination
- DSFIR NA : DSM-Firmenich 1H Adjusted Ebitda EU929M Vs. EU1.18B Y/y
- FRE GY : Fresenius SE 2Q Ebit Before Special Items Beats Estimates
- FME GY : Fresenius Medical 2Q Revenue Beats Estimates
- HLAG GY : Chile’s SAAM Completes Sale of Port Assets to Hapag Lloyd
- BOSS GY : Hugo Boss 2Q Sales Beats Estimates
- ISP IM : Italy’s Cyber Agency Detected Attack Against 5 Banks: Repubblica
- IVG IM : Iveco Boosts FY Consolidated Adjusted Ebit Forecast
- JDEP NA : JDE Peet's 1H Revenue Meets Estimates
- LI FP : Klepierre Sees FY Group NCCF/Shr at Least EU2.40, Saw EU2.35
- KCO GY : Kloeckner Sees FY Adjusted Ebitda EU220M to EU280M
- LNZ AV : Lenzing 1H Ebitda -28% Y/y, Keeps Targets After Capital Hike (1)
- MANU US : Manchester United Shares Slide Most Since May in Heavy Trading
- MELE BB : Melexis Narrows FY Revenue Forecast
- MFEB IM : MFE 1H Ebit Beats Estimates
- OCI NA : OCI 2Q Adjusted Ebitda Beats Estimates
- PSH NA : Pershing Square Holdings July Net Performance +5.1%
- PPF Group : Emirates Telecom Targets Europe With €2.2 Billion PPF Stake
- RILBA DC : Ringkjoebing Landbobank Forecasts FY Results
- SCHP SW : Schindler Gets 5-Year Maintenance Contract in Miami-Dade County
- SHL GY : Siemens Healthineers 3Q Adjusted Ebit Misses Estimates
- SY1 GY : Symrise 1H Ebitda Misses Estimates, FY 2023 Targets Confirmed
- TEVA IM : FDA, DEA Ask Drug Companies to Make More Adderall
- URW FP : Mall REITs Approach Rent Inflection But Still Work to Be Done
- UNI SM : Unicaja Holder Oceanwood Capital Management Offers Shares
- YARA NO : Fertilizer Use Growing, Fertiglobe CEO Says After Profit Plunge
- WZZ LN : ISS Recommends Against More Time for Wizz CEO to Win £100m Bonus

WSJ : Crypto Is Illegal in China. Binance Does $90 Billion of Business There Any

Crypto Is Illegal in China. Binance Does $90 Billion of Business There Anyway.
Retaining its Chinese footprint will be crucial for Binance as it faces a global regulatory crackdown

Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, was supposed to leave China behind when the country made cryptocurrency trading illegal in 2021.

Almost two years later, users traded $90 billion of cryptocurrency-related assets in China in a single month, according to internal figures viewed by The Wall Street Journal and current and former employees. The transactions made China Binance’s biggest market by far, accounting for 20% of volume worldwide, excluding trades made by a subset of very large traders.

China’s importance for Binance is openly discussed internally, according to the current and former employees. And despite the ban, the exchange’s investigations team works closely with Chinese law enforcement to detect potential criminal activity among the more than 900,000 active users in the country, according to some of the current and former employees.

Binance is facing a regulatory onslaught tied in part to the secretive way it operates around the globe. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in June sued Binance and its founder, Changpeng Zhao, for allegedly operating illegally and misusing customer funds. The Justice Department has a continuing investigation into Binance. Its market share among U.S. users has all but evaporated and the company recently cut over 1,000 of its 8,000 jobs globally.

Binance’s China footprint, previously undisclosed, offers a glimpse of how the crypto giant has managed to quietly operate on the fringes in places where it is, officially at least, unwelcome.

Binance has helped China users circumvent restrictions by directing them to visit different websites with Chinese domain names before rerouting them to the global exchange, according to an internal document laying out the procedure and viewed by the Journal. The document circulated inside the company before the 2021 ban but after China blocked the exchange’s website in 2017.

China’s central bank, which imposed the crypto ban, didn’t respond to a request for comment.

“The Binance.com website is blocked in China and is not accessible to China-based users,” a company spokesman said without commenting further.

Binance processes more cryptocurrency transactions around the world than most of its competitors combined. Holding on to its footprint in China will be crucial for Binance as it navigates a regulatory crackdown that executives internally worry threatens its future.

Binance has had a complicated relationship with China. Zhao, Chinese born but raised in Canada, founded the firm in Shanghai in 2017. Months later, the government issued the first of several rolling regulatory attacks on crypto exchanges. Officials feared the exchanges would be used to illegally move money out of the country. Zhao later said he moved Binance’s operations to Japan.

Binance kept dozens of staff in China, the Journal previously reported. Executives at its U.S. arm worried about the implications of the arrangement, including that developers in China had control over U.S. user data.

Zhao has said in the past that his and other employees’ Chinese heritage has been seized upon to paint a close relationship with the country.

“The greatest challenge that Binance faces today is that we (and every other offshore exchange) have been designated a criminal entity in China. At the same time, our opposition in the West bends over backward to paint us as a ‘Chinese company,’ ” he wrote in a blog last year.

China broadened its clampdown on the industry in 2021, and declared all cryptocurrency-related transactions illegal. The motive, it said, was to maintain national security and social stability.

At the time, Binance said it would conduct an inventory of platform users and would switch accounts from China-based customers to “withdrawal only” mode, meaning they would be forbidden from trading.

“Binance has always taken its compliance obligations seriously and has always strictly complied with the relevant requirements of local regulatory agencies,” it said in an October 2021 statement.

Chinese officials appear to have applied a soft touch on implementation of the all-encompassing ban.

“China’s cryptocurrency market remains strong, with healthy transaction volumes across both centralized and [decentralized] services,” said Kim Grauer, director of research at Chainalysis, a crypto research company. Despite an initial drop after the 2021 ban, the country is the fourth-largest market for crypto trading, according to Chainalysis.

Huobi, a rival exchange to Binance, has prompted Chinese users to apply for Dominican digital citizenship to allow them to trade on the platform.

Zhao was an initial promoter of a program in Palau that sells residency cards to foreigners, though Binance said it eventually dropped further association with the project. Binance’s interest in the Palau plan was in part motivated by wanting to help Chinese users, according to a person familiar with the project.

Crypto traders in China and elsewhere also use VPNs—an application that masks their location—to sign up on exchanges that are banned in their countries.

Binance’s China business dropped after the ban to 17% of its overall trading volume at the end of 2021 from 24% in the middle of the year, according to a former employee who viewed the data.

But it picked up again in 2022 and has stayed at high levels. China-based customers traded over $90 billion in cryptocurrencies in May 2023, according to an internal platform at Binance named “Mission Control.” Most of the trading was in futures contracts tied to cryptocurrencies. Futures trading for crypto is banned in the U.S.

There were 5.6 million China-based users registered at the exchange, of which 911,650 were active, according to Mission Control.

The second-biggest market for the exchange is South Korea, with a 13% share, followed by Turkey with almost 10%. All other countries comprise less than 5% of the volume traded at Binance.

About 100,000 Chinese users at Binance as of January were classified as “politically exposed persons,” according to internal company documents and a former employee. PEP designations are employed by banks and regulators to mark government officials, their relatives or close associates who require greater scrutiny due to their greater risk of involvement in bribery, corruption or money laundering.

Binance has in the past taken a relaxed attitude toward verifying the identity of its users in China, according to the internal documents and the former employee. Less than half of China-based registered users had gone through know-your-customer checks in the months after the ban at the end of 2021.

WWD : VF CEO Bracken Darrell: ‘This Company Has What It Takes’

VF CEO Bracken Darrell: ‘This Company Has What It Takes’
The Vans, The North Face and Supreme parent posted continued losses and lowered its annual revenue outlook given weakness at wholesale.

racken Darrell, who in previous lives supercharged Logitech and turned around Old Spice, has his work cut out for him at VF Corp.

The newly minted president and chief executive officer gave a few first impressions of the company — parent to Vans, The North Face and Supreme — on its first-quarter conference call with analysts. But out of necessity, his remarks came against a backdrop of continued losses, significant weakness in the wholesale business and a lower revenue outlook.

Darrell laid relatively low given that he’d been at the company for just 12 days, but was unsurprisingly optimistic in his remarks, saying VF had a “portfolio of globally powerful and iconic brands” that have both purpose and talent.

“These are the key ingredients needed to unlock the company’s significant value potential and return to strong sustainable and profitable growth,” the CEO said.

Darrell drew parallels to his time at computer hardware and software company Logitech, where he grew the company’s value tenfold — a stat that no doubt plays to the VF shareholder, who has seen the stock fall more than 57 percent over the past year.

He said Logitech transformed by “putting the customer at the center of everything we do.”

At VF, he has been doing a world tour, visiting the headquarters in Denver and stores in San Francisco, New York, London and beyond.

“I talk to customers everywhere I go and I started to dig into the brand equity data,” Darrell said. “My conclusion is that our brands are as strong as I expected. Our team is loaded with talent, our business is simply not performing at the level equal to those because of things in our control. I feel a strong sense of urgency with respect to the challenge we face and we collectively work with the team to get VF back on track through disciplined and thoughtful actions….This company has what it takes.”

But right now, it doesn’t have the results.

Net losses for the first quarter widened to $57.4 million from $56 million a year.

Adjusted losses per share of 15 cents were slightly weaker than the 12 cent deficit Wall Street analysts projected, according to FactSet.

Revenues for the three months ended June 1 slipped 8 percent to $2.1 billion from $2.3 billion a year ago and were in line with expectations.

While there were bright spots in the quarter — The North Face saw revenues grow 12 percent to $538.2 million while VF’s business in Greater China was ahead 31 percent, both in constant dollars — those wins were not enough to make up for weakness elsewhere.

Revenues at Vans, VF’s largest business, were down 22 percent to $737.5 million and were hit hard by weakness at wholesale in the Americas, which was down 39 percent. Across the company, wholesale fell 12 percent and the direct-to-consumer business slipped 3 percent.

The company stood by its earnings estimate for the year, which calls for EPS of $2.05 to $2.25, but expects continued weakness at wholesale to hit revenues.

VF is now looking for revenues this year to be “modestly down to flat” instead of the “flat to up slightly” projected in May.

Chief financial officer Matt Puckett, who did much of the heavy lifting on the conference call, said VF is continuing to focus on strengthening its supply chain and turning around Vans — two areas of historic strength for the firm.

But everything is being filtered through the balance sheet, another area where VF hasn’t been looking like its old self lately.

“While we have ample liquidity and financial flexibility to pursue our key priorities, our number one financial objective is to return VF to our historical balance sheet strength,” Puckett said. “Accordingly we will use any excess free cash flow to reduce debt, and you can be sure that any strategic decision we are making is through this lens. We expect to end this fiscal year with gross leverage of about 4-times and will continue to make progress on the path to moving toward our target of 2.5-times.”

FT : Air traffic controllers shortage dents airlines’ post-lockdown recovery

Air traffic controllers shortage dents airlines’ post-lockdown recovery
Delays and reduced schedules highlight structural problems that will not be easy to fix

Staffing shortages at air traffic control have delayed passengers in Europe this summer and forced US airlines to cut flights, sparking an industry blame game on both sides of the Atlantic.

The shortages, combined with airspace closures in Europe, have fuelled a 37 per cent increase in delayed flights on the continent over the past year, according to air traffic manager Eurocontrol.

Air traffic control staffing and capacity issues were responsible for about half the delays in July, during the peak travel period, Eurocontrol added.

Across the Atlantic, the US Federal Aviation Administration asked airlines in March to cut back flying in New York’s crowded airspace due to air traffic control staffing shortages, while United Airlines chief executive Scott Kirby criticised air traffic control for disruption at the airline’s New York hub.

A report in June found widespread staffing shortages, with controllers at some facilities working mandatory overtime and six-day weeks to manage the shortfall.

The problems have threatened to dent the airline industry’s recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic. Airlines including British Airways owner IAG and Air France-KLM have recently reported booming profits off the back of high ticket prices and huge demand for transatlantic travel.

But air traffic control staffing shortages are costing airlines millions in foregone ticket sales and increased operational expenses. Last year in Europe, delays cost carriers more than €800mn, according to Eurocontrol figures.

While the scale of the problem is smaller than in 2022, when staff shortages afflicted the whole industry, the combination of increasingly congested airspace and a lengthy training process for air traffic controllers means the problem is unlikely to be resolved quickly.

Delta Air Lines chief Ed Bastian and easyJet chief executive Johan Lundgren are among several airline executives on both sides of the Atlantic who have voiced their frustration at traffic control problems.

“​​We needed a good recruiting and hiring plan coming out of the pandemic,” Bastian said. “The airlines had it. I’m not sure the air traffic control system did.”

Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has compounded the issue. The closure of a fifth of Europe’s skies has compressed tens of thousands of flights a day into a smaller sliver of airspace.


London’s Gatwick airport, a hub for easyJet, was a particular sore spot last week when scores of flights were cancelled. Labour unrest has made things worse for travellers in some places. French air traffic controllers have staged walkouts, while Eurocontrol has warned of a possible strike at its Brussels headquarters over the next six months.

Europe has a shortfall of between 700 and 1,000 air traffic controllers. This was largely due to lay-offs and recruitment freezes during the pandemic, coming after decades of under-investment, said Frédéric Deleau, executive vice-president for Europe at the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations.

In the US, both airlines and the government-funded FAA have been reluctant to make the investments in staffing and technology needed to manage increasingly crowded airspace, said industry analyst Seth Miller of aviation website PaxEx.Aero.

EasyJet’s Lundgren said that while his industry was “better prepared” than it was last year, “we still have these challenges that really sit outside the control of airlines and airports”.

Training a new air traffic controller takes two to three years, noted Deleau, who warned that retirement would put staffing under further strain.

In the US, weather has caused 70 per cent of the delays, according to data from the FAA. Staffing has been responsible for less than 3 per cent of delays this year, down from 12 per cent for the same period last year.

Still, 20 out of the 26 busiest air traffic control centres and towers in the US employ 85 per cent or less of their targeted staffing level, according to a report released in June by the inspector-general’s office of the Department of Transportation.


The number of fully certified controllers in the country dipped 9 per cent between 2012 and 2022, according to the inspector-general’s report. A workforce plan the FAA submitted to Congress in May said there were 10,600 fully certified air traffic controllers and 3,100 trainees in the year to October 2022.

In an attempt to catch up, the FAA is planning to hire 1,500 controllers this year and another 1,800 in 2024. But the National Air Traffic Controllers Association union disagrees with the agency over how many controllers are required.

A working group that includes the union said the FAA needs about 14,600 fully certified controllers — about 2,600 more than the agency’s target level.

Natca president Rich Santa criticised the FAA’s “flawed staffing model”. “The status quo is no longer sustainable,” he said.

Delta’s Bastian said the US should make it a “national priority” to invest in aviation infrastructure more broadly. The FAA and air traffic controllers “are hard-working, but they’re undermanned and underinvested in”, he said. “There’s no shortcut solution to this.”

Miller said airlines “have long tried to force too many flights and too many planes through the eye of the needle” of air traffic control.

“Who is at fault on any given day at any given time will move, but everybody is part of the blame,” he said. “It’s not a surprise that we find ourselves here.”

FT : Meloni under fire as Italy’s economic recovery falters

Meloni under fire as Italy’s economic recovery falters
Dismal data and decision to pull poverty relief scheme put pressure on Italian prime minister

Giorgia Meloni was exulting just last week that IMF forecasts showed Italy growing faster than Germany and France this year — proof, she said, of the “effectiveness” of her rightwing coalition government’s economic policies. 

But Italy’s prime minister received a rude shock on Monday, after data showed the country’s post-coronavirus pandemic economic rebound lost far more steam than was expected.

Italy’s economy shrank by 0.3 per cent in the second quarter of 2023, far worse than the zero growth forecast by most analysts. The eurozone as a whole, meanwhile, registered a 0.3 per cent expansion.

The grim reading highlights the challenges confronting Meloni’s government, which has been waging a dramatic campaign on high consumer prices, as it strives to keep growth on track and put Italy’s heavy debts on a more sustainable footing.

“This is a nasty surprise for Meloni,” said Francesco Galietti, founder of Rome-based political risk consultancy Policy Sonar. “She was focusing so much on inflation she probably did not expect growth to lose steam so quickly.”


Meloni’s coalition government is already facing a growing political backlash as it starts to phase out the controversial “citizen’s income” poverty relief scheme that the populist Five Star Movement launched in 2019. 

Rome has decided to impose stricter eligibility criteria amid employers’ complaints that the programme, which last year benefited an estimated 1.7mn households, discouraged Italians from taking up jobs, and created artificial labour shortages.

In recent days, about 160,000 people whom the government considers able-bodied and potentially employable received text messages that their benefits were being cut, leading to protests in Naples and elsewhere.

Opposition parties say the growth figure raises serious questions about Italy’s economic direction.

“This is not about economic downturns or bad luck, these are the results of the blatant inability of this government to manage economic processes and encourage investment,” Ubaldo Pagano, a lawmaker from the opposition Democratic party, said in a statement. 

Italy’s finance ministry blamed the contraction on global factors beyond Rome’s control, including the European Central Bank’s repeated interest rate rises — which have been fiercely criticised by various members of Meloni’s government.

“The results were influenced in particular by the decline in the international industrial cycle, the rise in interest rates and the impact of the prolonged phase of rising prices of the purchasing power of households,” the ministry said in its statement.

Filippo Taddei, senior European economist at Goldman Sachs, said Italy’s disappointing growth figures are part of a broader malaise affecting European manufacturing, including in Germany — which has seen growth stagnate in recent quarters — and Austria, as the export-oriented industry wrestles with weak global demand.

“[The Italian figure] was a downside surprise and below our expectations but the data are clearly saying that manufacturing is facing extended weakness,” Taddei said.

It also reflects conditions specific to Italy, particularly the Meloni government’s decision to put the brakes on its controversial “Superbonus” scheme.

The programme, which had offered Italians a 110 per cent tax credit to undertake energy efficiency-enhancing home improvements, fuelled a frenzied post-pandemic construction boom as people undertook costly home improvements at public expense.

Rome announced big changes to the scheme in February. Italian construction activity in May was down 3.8 per cent from first-quarter levels.

“It was fiscally prudent for the Meloni government to curb the Superbonus last February,” Taddei said. “The transition is not easy but it was well received by market participants and understandably so.”

Angelica Donati, president of the youth wing of Italy’s national builders’ association, said that Superbonus had revved up GDP growth and “it was impossible for the fact that it was essentially stopped cold in its tracks not to have a negative repercussion on the economy”.

At the same time, investments funded by Italy’s €191.5bn EU-funded Covid recovery scheme has progressed far more slowly than expected. “It was the perfect storm,” Donati said.

Analysts still expect Italy’s economy to regain momentum, enabling the country to reach the finance ministry’s 1 per cent GDP growth target for 2023.

While construction may remain weak due to the impact of the Superbonus phaseout, Taddei said manufacturers’ performance would “pick up”.

However, there were no signs of improvement in the fortunes of Italian manufacturers at the start of the third quarter. S&P Global’s monthly survey of purchasing managers found “output and new orders both fell at historically steep rates” in July, and estimated production had fallen the most since the pandemic hit more than three years ago.

“Slowing global demand, restrictive credit conditions and the impact of tightening monetary policy will continue to play a role in such [manufacturing sector] weakness,” said economist Loredana Maria Federico, of Italian bank UniCredit, though she was confident tourism would help growth rebound.

Lorenzo Codogno, a former senior Italian treasury official, said he expected households to spend more as inflation falls. As the Next Generation EU programme moves forward, that would support growth too.

“The economy is clearly weakening because of the tightening of monetary conditions by the ECB but not to the point to justify a recession,” he said. “There is so much stimulus in the pipeline.”

>>> USAfter Hours Summary: US cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA"; CDLX +20.9%, ELF

After Hours Summary: US cut by Fitch to "AA+" from "AAA"; CDLX +20.9%, ELF +16.9%, TEX +4.8%, AMD +3.8% higher on earnings; CMBM -23.9%, AXTA -13.6%, SEDG -11.8%, PAYC -8.5%, EA -3.4%, PINS -3.4% lower on earnings

After Hours Gainers:

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CDLX +20.9%, POWL +19.1%, ELF +16.9%, ROVR +16.3%, FRSH +12.1%, MTCH +11.2%, AZPN +10.7% (also terminates Micromine purchase; also authorizes new $300 mln share repurchase program), OLO +10.4%, OMCL +8.1%, VMEO +7.3%, MDXG +6.9%, MGY +5.4%, UIS +4.9%, TEX +4.8%, EHC +4.3%, AMD +3.8%, FLS +3.8%, INSP +3.8%, EXEL +3.7%, ENLC +3.3%, AFL +2.3%, ULCC +2%, VREX +2%, HPP +1.9%, AIZ +1.5%, ANDE +1.3%, PXD +1.2% (also declares base-plus-variable cash dividend of $1.84/sh), ADC +1.1%, TX +0.9%, CCCS +0.8%, FCPT +0.7%, LMAT +0.7%, BLKB +0.5%, KAI +0.4%, CHK +0.2%, QUAD +0.2%, AXS +0.1%, BXP +0.1%, HMN +0.1%, GPOR +0.1%

Companies trading higher in after hours in reaction to news: HMST +6% (exploring options, including a sale, according to Bloomberg), ERIE +4.7% (to join S&P MidCap 400), PAG +4.4% (to join S&P MidCap 400), GH +2% (GH and ILMN resolve pending litigation and enter into new agreement), NOG +1.6% (increases dividend), SMR +1.2% (US Nuclear Regulatory Commission accepts application for formal review), AGI +1.1% (reports new results from its ongoing exploration program), FTCH +0.8% (names new CFO), PRCT +0.2% (commences $125 mln stock offering; also files mixed shelf securities offering), NDAQ +0.2% (reports July volumes)

After Hours Losers:

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to earnings/guidance: CMBM -23.9%, MLNK -18.4%, AXTA -13.6%, SEDG -11.8%, NVRO -10.1%, PEN -9.7%, PAYC -8.5% (also will expand its payroll solution into Canada), SHLS -8.5%, SKY -8.1%, CWH -7.6%, DEI -7.1%, LUMN -6.9%, BXC -6.6%, ALIT -6%, COLM -4.9%, BFAM -4.6%, EXAS -4.3%, CACC -4.1%, LFUS -4%, OI -4%, SILK -3.8%, JBT -3.5%, EA -3.4%, PINS -3.4%, DENN -3.3%, SFM -3.3% (also CFO to retire), SPCE -2.8%, KWR -2.3%, DVN -2%, WTI -1.9%, SCI -1.6%, MSTR -1.3%, ALL -1.2%, NUS -1.1% (also acquries BeautyBio), AIG -0.9%, MOS -0.8%, UNM -0.7%, VFC -0.7%, PRU -0.6%, CZR -0.5%, FE -0.5%, MATX -0.5%, SBUX -0.3%, SAFE -0.2%, VRTX -0.2%, PECO -0.1%, STE -0.1%

Companies trading lower in after hours in reaction to news: TMC -11.1% (provides update on expected development timeline), CLS -3.6% (announces proposed secondary offering of subordinate voting shares by ONEXF), ICFI -2.7% (awarded $14 mln DOJ contract), PTC -2.4% (announces 5.8 ml share offering by ROK), SNDR -2.3% (acquires M&M Transport Services), ILMN -1.7% (GH and ILMN resolve pending litigation and enter into new agreement), OPAL -1.4% (files mixed shelf securities offering), CVAC -1% (doses first participant in Phase 2 study of modified COVID-19 mRNA vaccine candidates), RPM -0.8% (files mixed shelf securities offering), SYM -0.5% (files mixed shelf; also stock offering by selling shareholders), GE -0.2% (GE's Aerospace division, TDG, and CVC Capital eyeing Avionics business being sold by LHX, according to Bloomberg)

>>> US Close Dow +0,20% S&P -0,27% Nasdaq -0,43% Russell -0,45%

Closing Stock Market Summary

The stock market encountered some selling pressure to begin the new month. Downside moves, though, were relatively modest. Selling interest was fueled by rising market rates and the feeling that the market is due for some consolidation. With today's losses, the S&P 500 is still up 19.2% for the year.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average outperformed (+0.2%), closing with a slim gain thanks to a big move higher in Caterpillar (CAT 288.65, +23.48, +8.9%), which reported pleasing quarterly results.

Some other notable companies that reported earnings endured sizable losses today. Norwegian Cruise Line Holdings (NCLH 19.41, -2.66, -12.1%), ZoomInfo Technologies (ZI 18.67, -6.90, -27.0%), and Uber (UBER 46.65, -2.81, -5.7%) were among the standouts in that respect after reporting less than perfect results and/or guidance. The aforementioned stocks experienced some consolidation after seeing big gains in the months leading up to their reports.

The action in the Treasury market created a headwind for equities today. The 10-yr note yield settled back above 4.00%, up nine basis points to 4.05%. The 2-yr note yield rose five basis points 4.91%. That move higher in yield stirred some valuation angst in the stock market that created a rationale to take some money off the table.

Only two of the S&P 500 sectors closed with gains, information technology (+0.3%) and industrials (+0.1%), while the utilities sector (-1.3%) saw the largest decline.

  • Nasdaq Composite: +36.5% YTD
  • S&P 500: +19.2% YTD
  • Russell 2000: +13.2% YTD
  • S&P Midcap 400: +12.0% YTD
  • Dow Jones Industrial Average: +7.5% YTD

Reviewing today's economic data:

  • The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI rose to 49.0 in the final July reading from 46.3 in the prior reading.
  • The July ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 46.4% in July (consensus 46.8%) from 46.0% in June The dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50.0%, so the sub-50.0% reading for July reflects a general contraction in manufacturing activity for the ninth straight month, albeit at a slower rate than the pace of contraction in June.
    • The key takeaway from the report, other than the manufacturing sector continuing to operate in a state of contraction, is that there are more signs of employment reductions in the near term to better match production. Those reductions are in-line with the Fed's thinking that its rate hikes will lead to some softening in the labor market.
  • Total construction spending increased 0.5% month-over-month in June ( consensus 0.6%) after increasing an upwardly revised 1.0% (from 0.9%) in May. Total private construction was up 0.5% month-over month while total public construction rose 0.3% month-over-month. On a year-over-year basis, total construction spending was up 3.5%.
    • The key takeaway from the report is that residential spending continues to be powered by new single family construction to meet demand that cannot be satisfied through the existing home market.
  • JOLTS job openings totaled 9.582 million in June following a revised total of 9.616 million in May (from 9.824 million)
  • The economic calendar tomorrow includes:

    • 7:00 a.m. ET: Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications Index (prior -1.8%)
    • 8:15 a.m. ET: July ADP Employment Change (consensus 185,000; prior 497,000)
    • 10:30 a.m. ET: Weekly EIA Crude Oil Inventories (prior -0.600M)