FT : OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device vent

OpenAI and Jony Ive in talks to raise $1bn from SoftBank for AI device venture
ChatGPT creator in early discussions to create the ‘iPhone of artificial intelligence’

OpenAI is in advanced talks with former Apple designer Jony Ive and SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son to launch a venture to build the “iPhone of artificial intelligence”, fuelled by more than $1bn in funding from the Japanese conglomerate.

Sam Altman, OpenAI’s chief, has tapped Ive’s company LoveFrom, which the designer founded when he left Apple in 2019, to develop the ChatGPT creator’s first consumer device, according to three people familiar with the plan.

Altman and Ive have held brainstorming sessions at the designer’s San Francisco studio about what a new consumer product centred on OpenAI’s technology would look like, the people said.

They hope to create a more natural and intuitive user experience for interacting with AI, in the way that the iPhone’s innovations in touchscreen computing unleashed the mass-market potential of the mobile internet.

The process of identifying a design or device remains at an early stage with many different ideas on the table, they said.

Son, SoftBank’s founder and chief executive, has also been involved in some of the discussions, pitching a central role for Arm — the chip designer in which the Japanese conglomerate holds a 90 per cent stake — as well as offering financial backing.

Son, Altman and Ive have discussed creating a company that would draw on talent and technology from their three groups, the people said, with SoftBank investing more than $1bn in the venture.

Discussions are said to be “serious”, but no deal has been agreed, they cautioned, and it could be several months before a venture is formally announced. Any resulting hardware product is likely to take years to bring to market.

OpenAI, SoftBank and LoveFrom declined to comment. The Information previously reported some aspects of their product discussions.

Ive played a central role in the creation of the first iPhone, which was launched in 2007, ushering in a new era of personal computing.

But as the smartphone market reaches a plateau, many in Silicon Valley have been considering what might become the next big consumer electronics device.

Virtual reality headsets such as Meta’s Quest and smart speakers such as Amazon’s Echo have been billed as having potential. But nothing has come close to rivalling the smartphone, which has become an essential item for billions of people.


For Ive, the compulsive nature of many smartphone users’ behaviour has become a worry. He told the Financial Times in 2018 that Apple had a “moral responsibility” to mitigate the iPhone’s unintended consequences, such as addictive apps, and has said he limits his children’s screen time.

The project with OpenAI presents an opportunity to create a way of interacting with computers that is less reliant on screens, according to people familiar with his thinking.

This week OpenAI announced upgrades to its breakthrough chatbot, ChatGPT, including capabilities to control the app through voice or by uploading an image and which allow it to browse the web.

The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that OpenAI, which is backed by Microsoft, was considering a share sale that would value the San Francisco-based company at as much as $90bn, tripling its valuation in less than a year.

>>> Stoxx 600 Pre-Market Indications

  • Phoenix Group (1BF TH) +6.4%
    • PHOENIX GROUP 1H ADJ OP. PRETAX GBP266M
  • National Grid (NNGF TH) +2.1%
    • National Grid Overweight at Barclays, Pennon Top UK Water Pick
  • CTS Eventim (EVD TH) +2%
    • CTS Eventim Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 65 euros
  • Talanx (TLX TH) +1.7%
    • Talanx Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Outstanding Business Model
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.2%
    • MTU Aero Affirmed at Baa3 by Moody’s
  • Billerud (BNF TH) +1.2%
    • Billerud Raised to Buy at SEB Equities; PT 121 kronor
  • Fortum (FOT TH) +1.1%
    • European Utilities With Generation Exposure Favored at Barclays
  • Rio Tinto (RIO1 TH) +1%
    • Copper, Iron Ore Slip on Hawkish Fed, Slow Demand Before Holiday
  • Sartorius (SRT3 TH) +0.8%
  • BE Semiconductor (BSI TH) -0.3%
    • Watch European Chip Stocks as Micron Predicts Steeper Loss
  • Verbund (OEWA TH) -0.5%
    • European Utilities With Generation Exposure Favored at Barclays
  • Safran (SEJ1 TH) -0.6%
  • Engie (GZF TH) -1.4%
    • European Utilities With Generation Exposure Favored at Barclays
  • H&M (HMSB TH) -2.2%
    • H&M Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 175 kronor
  • AMS-Osram (DQW1 TH) -11%
    • AMS-Osram Plans to Secure EU2.25b Financing via Equity, Debt

>>> TradeGate Pre-Market Indications

DAX:
  • MTU Aero (MTX TH) +1.4%
    • MTU Aero Affirmed at Baa3 by Moody’s
  • Vonovia (VNA TH) +0.9%
  • Siemens Energy (ENR TH) +0.8%
  • Porsche AG (P911 TH) +0.6%
    • Volkswagen IT Glitch Halts Production in at Least Four Plants
  • Rheinmetall (RHM TH) +0.6%
MDAX:
  • Talanx (TLX TH) +1.9%
    • Talanx Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Outstanding Business Model
  • SMA Solar (S92 TH) +1.5%
  • ProSieben (PSM TH) +0.9%
  • Nordex (NDX1 TH) +0.7%
  • Thyssenkrupp (TKA TH) +0.6%
SDAX:
  • Adtran Holdings (QH9 TH) +3.8%
  • AUTO1 (AG1 TH) +1.8%
  • Suedzucker (SZU TH) +1.7%
  • VERBIO Vereinigte (VBK TH) +1.5%
  • Ceconomy (CEC TH) +1.5%
  • Deutz (DEZ TH) +1%
  • Thyssenkrupp Nucera AG & Co KGaa (NCH2 TH) +0.8%
  • Cancom (COK TH) +0.6%
  • 1&1 (DRI TH) -1%
  • Borussia Dortmund (BVB TH) -1.4%

FT : A trade reprieve won’t fix the EU’s failures on electric vehicles

A trade reprieve won’t fix the EU’s failures on electric vehicles
Proposed anti-subsidy duties are an admission that European companies and governments have been slow to innovate

Every 10 years or so, it seems, another industry is nominated to be the new primary combat theatre for trade wars involving China. (This is distinct from eternal wars of attrition such as the steel sector.) In the 2000s, it was clothes and shoes. In the 2010s, it was solar panels. The 2020s looked set to be the decade of wrangling over semiconductors, but electric vehicles are, as it were, coming up fast on the outside.

Two weeks ago, the EU broke into the open and threatened anti-subsidy duties on imports of EVs from China. European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen warned against repeating the experience of solar cells, where Chinese producers overtook an early European lead to dominate the EU and indeed the global market.

But the EU’s problem with EVs has not primarily been a naive opening of the European market. These poorly targeted and possibly counterproductive trade restrictions, which risk holding back the green transition by making EVs more expensive, are not a substitute for creating an environment in which European companies can compete.

In reality, even if anti-subsidy duties are granted, they probably won’t make much difference to competition between Chinese and European car companies. The single biggest source of made-in-China EV imports are the Tesla cars made in the US company’s plant in Shanghai province, not the indigenous Chinese brands, which have relatively small footholds. If the commission genuinely wanted to give European industry breathing space, it would have gone for a “safeguard measure”, which gives temporary protection against all imports, rather than singling out China.


Under EU rules, it’s hard to prove massive effects from trade-distorting subsidies, certainly compared with complaints of unfair pricing (anti-dumping). So anti-subsidy tariffs on Chinese EVs will probably only amount to about 10 per cent. Although there is some leeway to differentiate between producers, duties are also likely to hit imports of EVs made in China by European companies such as Volkswagen. It was the commission itself, under pressure from the French government, that initiated the EV investigation. The German car companies in particular, aware of the potential for damage to their exports and for retaliation in the Chinese market, aren’t enthusiastic.

And in one of the most telling issues, it’s only subsidies over the past year that are counted when calculating trade distortions. China has established a lead in EV manufacture — as in other green tech industries — by pouring in money for well over a decade in various forms, including subsidised credit, land and industrial inputs.

Now, it’s certainly true that the EU will always struggle to match that scale and type of government support. Member states, constrained by rules on state aid, have generally offered consumer subsidies to encourage EV adoption no matter where they were made.

By contrast, according to a report by the think-tank CSIS, more than a third of China’s government subsidy to EVs between 2009 and 2017 went to support domestic production, including research and development. (The US squared this circle in Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act via consumer tax breaks for EV buyers with domestic-content provisions that very likely break World Trade Organization law.)

However, even within these constraints, there has been a chronic lack of imagination and investment in the EU. European carmakers started with the massive advantages of globally famous brands and experience in building supply chains. But while China was establishing its EV base from the 2010s onwards and starting to capture the EU market in EV batteries, including through foreign direct investment in Europe, the German car industry was more focused on cheating emission tests in the Dieselgate scandal, with the help of weak regulators, and lobbying for delaying official targets for ending the sales of internal combustion cars.

Despite negative government bond yields during the 2010s offering a perfect incentive to borrow and upgrade Germany’s ageing infrastructure, Angela Merkel’s government was bizarrely obsessed with attaining the “schwarze Null” (black zero), a balanced public budget.

Germany’s car industry doesn’t lack government backing. Volkswagen in particular is a partly state-owned enterprise through the stake owned by the German state of Lower Saxony. It has an outsize impact on German and EU regulatory and trade policy. And yet while it did expand EV production in China, VW and the rest of the sector failed to change the paradigm at home, and governments did not press them.

This is not a counsel of despair. The European automotive industry retains great capacity for innovation. Chinese marques targeting the EU such as BYD are largely aiming at the low-value part of the market, leaving plenty of room at the higher end. European and global EV markets are expanding faster than China alone can supply them.

The main issue here isn’t the unfairness of emerging Chinese competition. It’s the time it’s taken that competition to prod Europe’s car industry and its complacent governments into action. The trade restrictions being proposed by the commission aren’t a cure so much as a symptom. The fix for Europe’s malady lies within itself.

FT : France explores windfall levy to ‘take back control’ of energy prices

France explores windfall levy to ‘take back control’ of energy prices
President Emmanuel Macron signals plans for new law aimed at containing electricity prices

France is exploring ways to cap national electricity prices without falling foul of EU subsidy rules, including a possible windfall levy to deliver President Emmanuel Macron’s pledge to “take back control” of prices.

One option under consideration is for the state to collect and redistribute some of nuclear power producer EDF’s revenues, according to people familiar with the talks. Such a move, part of a broader overhaul of the way power prices are regulated in France, would echo emergency measures authorised by Brussels during the energy crisis to collect “excess profits” when prices soared.

The mechanism would involve setting a ceiling for the price at which state-owned EDF sold its nuclear energy, including to other electricity distributors and industrial groups. Revenues above that threshold would revert to the government and be distributed back to end users.

The hope in Paris is that it might be able to operate such a framework without prompting objections from the European Commission, which polices state support to industries and households that distort the EU market.

But whether France could truly act unilaterally is still unclear. Macron’s use of Brexiters’ catchphrase this week sparked confusion in Brussels, where EU states and the commission are simultaneously trying to negotiate electricity market reforms.

“By the end of the year we’re going to take back control of electricity prices at a French and European level,” Macron said on Monday. He gave few details of how this would work beyond signalling France planned to introduce a new law to this end.

One senior EU diplomat said Macron’s pledge was worrying. “The last time someone was promising to take back control that didn’t end very well for the single market,” the person quipped, in a nod to Brexit.

Macron’s move reflects some of the frustrations France has expressed during talks at European level over a reform of the electricity market design, as Paris and Berlin clash over how the French nuclear power sector will be treated and whether it can benefit from certain subsidies.

A French official said the plan to create a national system to contain electricity prices was not incompatible with the reform in the works in Brussels. “Clearly we want a European agreement on market reform. But such an agreement wouldn’t solve everything,” the official said, adding that “if necessary”, France would act on its own.

Another French government official said Macron’s bid to “take back control” of the power sector had broader implications than just prices. It reflected a push for France to produce more of its energy domestically, the official said, and ensure it avoided a repeat of the reactor outages that forced it to become a net power importer for the first time in decades last year.

France has long vaunted its fleet of 56 nuclear reactors operated by EDF as a competitive advantage, underpinning its low carbon strategy and helping businesses and households, thanks to prices that had remained low until the energy crisis last year. But former monopoly EDF is state-owned and has a dominant position, and its every move involves wrangling with Brussels to ensure state aid and competition rules are respected. 

A current framework known as the Arenh — under which EDF sells a chunk of its power to rival distributors at a fixed price that has been agreed with the EU — is expiring at the end of 2025 and discussions around its replacement are partly what have led to the soul-searching on price mechanisms.

“France will in any case have to discuss its plans with its European partners,” said Nicolas Goldberg, a partner at energy specialist Colombus Consulting.

At EDF, chief executive Luc Rémont is open to a price-ceiling solution, people familiar with the matter said. But Rémont has clashed with the government over the level at which it should be set, adding another layer of complexity to the government’s plans.

A recent report by France’s energy regulator established that the cost of producing energy would be equivalent to €61 a megawatt hour for EDF for the coming years, and the state is pushing for a price as close to that as possible. 

EDF is arguing that it needs a higher one to be able to deliver on Macron’s plan to build at least six new reactors over the next decade at an estimated cost of €52bn.

The group declined to comment.

>>> What to look at today - 28th of September 2023

Shares in Asia tracked lower as a jump in global oil prices emboldened the higher-for-longer rates narrative, sapping risk sentiment as some markets in the region prepare for a holiday.   The US benchmark oil price hit $95 a barrel for the first time in more than a year after stockpiles fell at a major storage hub. The increase added to concerns that inflation would remain elevated, keeping the 10-year Treasury yield near the 4.6% it reached in the previous session, the highest since 2007.  Equity benchmarks in Japan and Hong Kong fell, dragging down a key index of regional shares. Stocks in mainland China were mixed ahead of an extended break for onshore markets, which will close Friday before reopening Oct. 9.  Chinese developers extended losses after falling to levels not seen since 2011 on Wednesday. Trading in China Evergrande Group was suspended in Hong Kong, another troubling sign for the sector that’s been embroiled in an yearslong debt crisis.   US futures ticked higher after Wall Street ended Wednesday flat. A widely-watched measure of global equities opened lower in Asia after falling for the ninth consecutive session, its worst losing streak in a dozen years. September has reasserted its tough reputation. It’s shaping up as the worst month for global stocks in a year, while the 10-year Treasury yield has also risen by the most in that period. An index of US investment grade corporate bonds has suffered its biggest monthly drop since February, pulling the benchmark to a loss for the year. The Bloomberg dollar index was steady after touching the highest level since November. The index has climbed for six sessions in a row, its longest run of advances in a year. Meanwhile. the yen strengthened slightly on Thursday but remained near 150 per dollar. Global stocks also face the risk of further selling linked to a large options position held by a JPMorgan Chase & Co. equity fund. Tens of thousands of protective put contracts held by the fund will expire Friday at a strike price not far below the current level of the S&P 500, creating the potential for market dislocations. Gold edged higher after a run of declines this week while Bitcoin traded above $26,000. US After Hours MU -4%, JEF -3.4% lower on earnings; PTON +16.8% pops on partnership with LULU; JCI -1.2% ticks lower on cybersecurity incident.

Nikkei -1.32% Hang Seng -1.02% CSI -0,22% Shanghai +0,13% Shenzen +0,43%

Eur$ 1,0501 CNH 7.3161 CNY 7.3124 JPY 149.42 GBP 1.2134 CHF 0.9214 RUB 97.0761 TRY 27.3447 WTI$ 94.59 Gold 1,875 BTC 26,333 ETH 1,603

S&P +0,19% Nasdaq +0,21% EuroStoxx +0,14% FTSE +0,11% Dax +0,27% SMI +0.09%

Macro :
- Germany Loses Out to China, Japan Amid Sick Man of Europe Debate
- Deutsche Bank Americas Head Sees More Stress on Midsize Banks
- Italy Targets Wider Budget Deficit in Challenge for Meloni
- JPMorgan’s Kolanovic Says Markets Today ‘Rhyme With’ 2008 Crisis
- JPMorgan ‘Options Whale’ Worries Resurface as Stocks Extend Drop
- BofA CEO Says Soft-Landing Projection Spurred by Strong Consumer
- SEC Nears Settlement With Wall St. Firms on WhatsApp: Rtrs
- If China Is So Weak, Why Are Commodities So Strong?: China Today

Keep an eye on :
- AIR FP : Airbus Starts China Factory Expansion to Double Plane Output
- AMS SW : AMS-Osram Plans to Secure EU2.25b Financing via Equity, Debt
- AAPL US : Apple App-Store Ruling Challenged at Supreme Court by Epic Games
- AAPL US : Apple iPhone 15 Pro Users Complain That Device Can Get Too Hot
- AUTN SW : Autoneum Sells Remaining Shares From Rights Offering
- BBVA SM : BBVA to Pay Interim Dividend of €0.16/Share, Up 33% Y/Y
- BEN FP : Beneteau Sees FY Operating Income Above EU210M
- BMPS IM : Italy’s Giorgetti Says Paschi Could Be Core of New Banking Hub
- BMW GY : BMW Halts North American Motorcycle Sales Over Emissions System
- BPSO IM : Pop. Sondrio Holder in Reverse Bookbuild for 46.3m Shrs: Terms
- BPSO IM : Unipol to Buy 10.2% Stake in Popolare di Sondrio (Sept. 27)
- COLR BB : Colruyt to Sell Part of Virya Energy Stake to Korys (Sept. 27)
- EDF FP : France Mulls Windfall Levy to Cap Electricity Prices: FT
- GLEN LN : Glencore among parties in Chalice’s Gonneville sale
- GLEN LN : Glencore’s Halt to Koniambo-Mine Funding Rids Profit Drag: React
- PLTR US : Palantir Wins $250 Million AI Deal With US Defense Department
- PTON US : Lululemon Strikes Deal With Peloton to Use Content (Correct)
- RYA ID : Ryanair May Need to Cut Fares to Stimulate Demand, O’Leary Says
- SBBB SS : SBB Delays Third-Quarter Report After Changing Group Structure
- 1SXP GY : Germany’s Schott Raises €813 Million in IPO of Medical-Glass Arm
- SNBN SW : SNB Chief Jordan Defends Focus on Inflation Amid Climate Crisis
- STLA IM : UAW Threatens to Strike More Plants Friday If No Progress
- TE FP : TechnipFMC awarded a large integrated engineering, procurement, construction, and installation contract by Equinor (EQNR) for its Rosebank project, TechnipFMC Climbs Postmarket on Equinor Contract Award
- TIT IM : Telecom Italia Grants KKR Extension to Oct. 15 for NetCo Offer
- UNI IM : Unipol to Buy 10.2% Stake in Popolare di Sondrio (Sept. 27)
- DG FP : Vinci Sees Charge of €260m for FY From Planned New Tax in France
- VOW GY : Volkswagen IT Glitch Halts Production in at Least Four Plants
- VSAT US : Viasat Falls After Musk’s SpaceX Wins US Space Force Contract
- VOW GY : Volkswagen Remedies IT Outage Affecting Global Production
- WPP LN : Uber is moving its $600 million ad account from WPP to Omnicom
- YCA LN : Yellow Cake Offers Up to $125 million Shares at GBp550/Share

>>> Europe : Brokers Upgrades & Downgrades - 28th of September 2023

>>> Up
* Bpost Raised to Buy at KBC Securities; PT 6.90 euros
* Elisa Raised to Hold at HSBC; PT 46 euros
* Lemonsoft Raised to Accumulate at Inderes; PT 6.40 euros
* NextEra Energy Raised to Buy at CFRA
* Redeia Corp SA Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 18 euros
* Severn Trent Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 3,360 pence
* Solaria Energia Raised to Overweight at Barclays; PT 21 euros
* Talanx Raised to Buy at Berenberg; PT 69 euros

>>> Down
* Capricorn Energy Cut to Add at AlphaValue/Baader
* Central Asia Metals Cut to Hold at Halyk Finance; PT 223 pence
* CTS Eventim Rated New Buy at SocGen; PT 65 euros
* Engie Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 18 euros
* H&M Cut to Hold at Deutsche Bank; PT 175 kronor
* Naturgy Cut to Underweight at Barclays
* United Utilities Cut to Equal-Weight at Barclays; PT 1,290 pence

>>> Initiation
* AB InBev ADRs Rated New Outperform at Cowen; PT $67
* Alfen Rated New Neutral at BNPP Exane; PT 45 euros
* Argenx Rated New Outperform at Oddo BHF; PT 600 euros
* BAT ADRs Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $33
* Diageo ADRs Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $152
* Fastned GDRs Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 38 euros
* Fortum Reinstated Overweight at Barclays
* Galapagos Rated New Neutral at Oddo BHF; PT 44 euros
* Hemnet Rated New Buy at Pareto Securities; PT 220 kronor
* Imperial Brands ADRs Rated New Market Perform at Cowen; PT $25
* Jumbo Rated New Equal-Weight at Morgan Stanley; PT 29 euros
* Kempower Rated New Outperform at BNPP Exane; PT 64 euros
* Macfarlane Rated New Buy at Berenberg; PT 145 pence
* National Grid Reinstated Overweight at Barclays
* Uniper Reinstated Underweight at Barclays

>>> Call
* European Utilities With Generation Exposure Favored at Barclays
* National Grid Overweight at Barclays, Pennon Top UK Water Pick
* Talanx Raised to Buy at Berenberg on Outstanding Business Model

WSJ : Saudi Arabia and Russia Win Big in Gamble on Oil Cuts

Saudi Arabia and Russia Win Big in Gamble on Oil Cuts
Brent crude is climbing toward $100 a barrel after the two OPEC+ nations made risky choice to slice production

Saudi Arabia and Russia have raked in billions of dollars in extra oil revenues in recent months, despite pumping fewer barrels, after their production cuts sent crude prices soaring.

The cutbacks were a risky strategy, both financially and politically. But they appear to be paying off for the two most important members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led allies, or the OPEC+ cartel. Price increases are more than making up for the reduction in sales volume, according to calculations by consulting firm Energy Aspects.

The inflows are helping Saudi Arabia, under Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, fund pricey domestic projects and continue an investment-driven campaign of overseas influence. The extra funds are also ensuring Russian President Vladimir Putin can sustain his war in Ukraine.

Oil revenues in Saudi Arabia this quarter are likely up by nearly $30 million a day compared with the April-June period, or an increase of about 5.7%, analysis by Energy Aspects shows. For the whole three-month period, that would equate to about $2.6 billion. Russian oil revenues are likely up by about $2.8 billion, the data shows.

These successes could prompt the cartel to consider even more restrictions to global supply, some market watchers say. “OPEC+ is very much in the driver’s seat. You could argue there’s even more to come,” said Saad Rahim, chief economist at Trafigura.

The cartel has been raising the pressure on oil markets for months, but until recently its actions were offset by worries about a global recession and sluggish Chinese growth, which kept oil prices trading in a fairly narrow range.

Last October, members said they would slash production by 2 million barrels a day, the biggest cut since the start of the pandemic. In May, a smaller, Saudi-led group introduced a second cut of more than 1 million barrels a day. The kingdom added a further 1-million-barrel-a-day cut in July. Then, Saudi Arabia and Russia said on Sept. 5 that they plan to extend their cuts through the end of the year.

Global benchmark Brent crude has climbed 25% this quarter and traded as high as $95 a barrel in recent days, though it has recently pulled back modestly. The most actively traded contract closed at $92.43 on Tuesday.

OPEC+ forecasters predict a global deficit of 3.3 million barrels a day in the fourth quarter, and many oil analysts now expect benchmark Brent to soon top $100 a barrel.

“It’s not such a bold call anymore,” said Livia Gallarati, an oil-markets analyst at Energy Aspects. “Prices are going to be grinding higher. Supply is fundamentally tight.”

A strategy to reduce output is risky because a big oil producer can lose market share to rival nations—and, if the shortfall fails to boost prices, can suffer a big drop in revenue. High energy costs are also unpopular in Washington, since they could introduce fresh inflationary pressures into the U.S. economy.

Production costs are low in Saudi Arabia and Russia, averaging $9.30 and $12.80 a barrel respectively last year, according to Rystad Energy estimates. Those low costs mean most of the revenue from oil exports can be converted into profit.

The higher prices are welcome for Saudi Arabia, which has a history of booms and busts linked to oil-market swings and a mixed record with big development projects partly as a result.

The country has stepped up capital outlays, spending 37% more in the first half of 2023 on capital expenditures than it did in the same period last year, according to Capital Economics. Work has started on a $500 billion megaproject for 2030, the new city-state of Neom, which is planned to be the size of Massachusetts.

The International Monetary Fund estimated earlier this year that Riyadh’s break-even oil price to balance its budget is about $81 a barrel. If Saudi Arabia keeps struggling to attract foreign investment to projects such as Neom, the break-even could rise closer to $100, analysts say.

Russia, meanwhile, is spending heavily to fight the war in Ukraine. In the first quarter of this year, spending jumped 35%, increasing by nearly two trillion rubles, or some $20.7 billion, compared with a year earlier, according to Oxford Economics. The government has run a budget deficit since the middle of last year.

Russia’s most popular oil variety, known as Urals, has traded above $75 a barrel in recent days. That is up from the second-quarter average of $56 reported by Russia’s central bank, and above a $60 cap imposed by the Group of Seven advanced nations to curb Russian oil revenues.

Last week, the Kremlin banned diesel and gasoline exports, adding a constraint to world energy supplies. Global diesel prices jumped, on worries about scarcer volumes in an already tight market.

“This is Russia weaponizing energy again,” said Helima Croft, head of commodity strategy at RBC Capital Markets. With markets for petroleum products “incredibly tight, this is really something to be concerned about,” she said. A fight between the Kremlin and oil companies including Rosneft because of fuel shortages was another factor in the ban, The Wall Street Journal reported.

Some economists still predict growth will slow in Saudi Arabia and Russia because of the production cuts. But that largely reflects a quirk in how real, or inflation-adjusted, gross domestic product is calculated, said James Swanston, an economist at Capital Economics. This measure of economic output is computed using volumes rather than prices, he said.

“If we just look at oil prices, their future’s looking brighter,” Swanston said. “It might not be an economic game-changer, but it does let them keep spending.”

Handelsblatt : Because of logistics problems: Insiders see Volkswagen's annual t

Because of logistics problems: Insiders see Volkswagen's annual targets in America shaky
North America should actually boost VW's sales significantly. However, thousands of vehicles have been piled up at a factory in Mexico since the summer. And alternative routes are expensive.

Dusseldorf, New York. Germany's largest car manufacturer Volkswagenis struggling with sales problems in the US market. As four insiders unanimously reported to the Handelsblatt, the group is currently particularly worried about logistics. Accordingly, there is a lack of railway wagons for the transport of VW vehicles produced at the Mexican plant in Puebla. The finished cars are backing up and cannot be delivered to dealers.

Volkswagen is working on fixing the problem. Nevertheless, company insiders fear that VW will not be able to meet its annual targets in the region. “Our goals for 2023 are shaky,” it says. A lack of sales in the summer jeopardized sales targets. The higher transport costs on alternative routes also weighed on profitability.

In July, CEO Oliver Blume capped the group's sales targets. Instead of 9.5 million cars, the Wolfsburg-based company is now expecting nine to 9.5 million vehicles to be sold. As a result, the ambitious sales targets for North America were also lowered. According to insiders, achieving these revised goals is anything but certain.

“We remain on track to achieve our sales targets in the region,” said a company spokesman when asked. VW in North America also points out that the situation is now better and the backlog is easing. VW is working “relentlessly” to “improve supply and increase capacity in the region,” said Andrew Savvas, regional sales manager. In the past two months alone, deliveries in the region have increased by 43 percent compared to the first half of the year. “We will continue to do everything we can to provide our dealers and customers with new vehicles,” said Savvas.


The problems in North America are all the more serious as demand in Europe and China is already weakening. North America is also an important growth market for Volkswagen. The company actually wants to strengthen the region in order to make itself more independent from China.

In Puebla, Volkswagen produces, among other things, the combustion engine models Jetta and Tiguan, which are considered bestsellers in theUSA . Typically, half of them are transported to North America by rail and the other half on specialized car ships.

Insider: In the summer, up to 30,000 vehicles were piled up at VW in Mexico
In Mexico, VW can produce up to 10,000 vehicles per week. Last year, 80 percent of the annual production of more than 300,000 cars was exported to the USA and Canada, with the remaining 20 percent going primarily to the Mexican market and South America.

As insiders report, around 30,000 vehicles were piled up around the plant in Puebla in the summer, which affected production. Although the backlog is decreasing, it is said to have still amounted to just under 10,000 vehicles. According to insiders, the fact that the number of cars not being transported is decreasing is primarily due to VW logistics' efforts to find alternative transport routes.

Volkswagen has set itself ambitious goals for North America. Ten percent market share by the end of the decade is the target of regional boss Pablo Di Si, which he confirmed in the Handelsblatt last December. According to the data service provider Marklines, the group achieved a figure of 4.1 percent in the first half of the year, only recording a slight increase compared to the previous year.

However, the core VW brand shrank slightly in the growing market compared to the same period last year - from 2.1 to 2.0 percent market share. Sales of combustion engines in particular declined for the VW core brand in the first half of the year. Audi, on the other hand, was able to increase by around 30 percent.

In Wolfsburg, people have now become a little more reserved when it comes to US goals. CFO Arno Antlitz, who is also responsible for America, recently spoke to journalists about doubling the market share. That would still be significantly more than the company has ever sold in the USA, but less than the target of ten percent.

Missing rail cars disrupt VW's supply chain in North America
The news about the short-term delivery bottlenecks comes at a sensitive time for VW. In Europe, demand for the strategically important electric vehicles is stuttering; in China - by far the Wolfsburg-based company's most important sales market - sales figures in June, July and August were below the previous year.

The logistics problems in America are primarily due to a lack of rail cars - a problem that also affects other manufacturers. The double-decker wagons are standardized in the region and are used by all car manufacturers for transport. “During the coronavirus pandemic, thousands of wagons and locomotives were stored. “It takes time to reinstate them because they have to be re-approved by the regulatory authorities,” says an insider.

Many cars are currently congested in the northeast of the USA. Transporting them to Puebla in southern Mexico is expensive and time-consuming. “We are also a victim of geography,” said another insider: No other large car factory is as far south as the one in Puebla. It is also said that the promises made by the railway companies were not kept. The railway companies in the USA and Mexico are currently operating at high capacity, and there has been a lack of train drivers since the pandemic.

Anger is already growing among some VW dealers in the USA. “Americans want to drive straight from the farm. We can’t put them off with pre-orders,” says a manager. If there were no cars in demand, US customers would move away again - and if in doubt, buy from the competition.

Logistics problems at VW in America: ship charter and containers as an emergency solution
VW's logisticians have therefore become creative and are transporting the cars either by ship using the so-called roll-on-roll-off process or - in collaboration with the shipping companies MSC and Maersk– in 40-foot shipping containers with two cars per container, a process that is otherwise used for vintage cars. They have also opened a new, third port in Tuxpan, Mexico. However, the transport alternatives are considered expensive and are likely to weigh on profits in North America.

Another problem: Even if the cars are now arriving in America little by little, they cannot replace the lack of sales from the summer. “Production in Puebla was actually supposed to ramp up significantly in late spring,” explains an insider. The months of May to September are actually the main sales time for new cars. That's exactly where the transport stopped. “We parked cars everywhere we could.”

There is no exact number of how many vehicles could not be sold due to logistics problems - it would only be an estimate, according to US company circles. However, conclusions can be drawn when looking at the sales of other car manufacturers.

“Really bad weeks” in a time of strong sales
The US industry service Globaldata, referring to published sales figures, describes August 2023 as an exceptionally good month for most car manufacturers. Overall, demand across the entire industry increased by a whopping 17 percent compared to the previous year.

It was all the more bitter for VW that the logistics problems in Puebla reached their peak in July and August, as an insider explains: “They were really bad weeks.” Volkswagen North America is also expecting an increase in sales for the third quarter single-digit percentage range. However, the growth figures of many competitors are likely to look better in the US market.

But it is also true: Volkswagen is not alone with this issue. Other manufacturers have also recently had to struggle due to a lack of railway wagons. For example, Hondacomplained about“logistics and supply chain issues.” Also Hyundai, Ford and GMAccording to their own statements, they felt negative effects.

Some manufacturers seem to be able to deal with the problem better than others. At Honda, for example, sales rose by 56 percent in August. And also at Mercedes-Benzyou can see your own factory in Tuscaloosa is not affected upon request. It is located in Alabama - almost 2,500 kilometers further north than the VW plant in Puebla.

VW's US headquarters is in Chattanooga, the neighboring state of Tennessee. It is less affected by the logistics problems and produces the bestseller Atlas, which now has the greatest hopes for sales and profitability. The SUV was completely renovated in the summer and is well received by US buyers.

FT : China’s top developers lost close to $3bn due to weakened renminbi

China’s top developers lost close to $3bn due to weakened renminbi
US-dollar indebted Evergrande, Sunac and Country Garden head list of groups suffering forex risks


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Top Chinese property developers recorded almost $3bn in foreign exchange losses, mainly on their US dollar borrowings, during the first half of the year as the renminbi weakened, adding pressure to their struggle to secure cash to service mounting debts.

The aggregate net foreign exchange losses for 24 of the top 30 mainland-listed Chinese developers by contracted sales before the Covid-19 crackdown in 2020 totalled Rmb21.25bn ($2.75bn) for the first six months of this year, according to research by Nikkei Asia.

The foreign exchange losses are on paper only and the actual loss or gain depends on the exchange rates of the respective due dates. But the figures act as a gauge of exchange rate risks involved with the foreign currency-denominated debts of distressed property developers, especially when the renminbi dipped to a 16-year low against the dollar on September 8.

Alicia García Herrero, chief Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, views the renminbi depreciation as a result of increased liquidity due to cuts in reserve requirement ratios and interest rates by the People’s Bank of China, which is under stress from the real estate sector.

“Both, together with the now negative portfolio flows into China, have weakened the yuan,” she said. The weak currency is seen as a byproduct of assisting distressed developers, but it is apparently adding to the financial burden for those highly exposed to dollar debts.

While Yango Group was forced to delist from the Shenzhen exchange last month and Hong Kong-listed CIFI Holdings failed to announce its mid-year earnings report by the August 31 deadline, four companies did not explicitly disclose and a few said such losses are included in a wider category of “finance losses”. The actual losses by renminbi depreciation could be larger.

China Evergrande topped the list with a net forex loss of Rmb4.14bn, or 12.5 per cent of the Rmb33bn net loss for the first six months. Among the Rmb625bn of total borrowings at the end of June, 26.3 per cent was denominated in US dollars and Hong Kong dollars. The value of the latter is pegged to the former.

Since the renminbi depreciated almost 10 per cent over the year until then, the value of Evergrande’s debts borrowed in the two foreign currencies are inflated when converted to the Chinese currency.

Country Garden reported more than Rmb3bn in net foreign exchange loss, contributing to a record half-year net loss of Rmb48.93bn. Global investors have been closely watching the Guangdong-based developer, as it initially missed a total of $22.5mn in interest payments to two of its dollar-denominated bonds last month.

Even though the company has recently been able to negotiate the redemption deadlines for certain domestic bonds — part of its Rmb257.9bn borrowings — management stated in its mid-year report that it is “facing more difficulties in obtaining financing through the issuance of new domestic corporate bonds and overseas senior notes due to the difficult and challenging debt financing environment”.


Sunac China, which has already defaulted on onshore and offshore bonds, said it has recorded a similar loss of Rmb3.24bn during the first half of the year. The Tianjin-based developer has not repaid Rm129.23bn, or more than 40 per cent of what it owes to creditors and bankers, as of the end of last month.

Cedric Lai, a Hong Kong-based analyst at Moody’s Investors Service, said this month that funding access for privately owned developers in general “will remain restricted amid damped market confidence” as he downgraded the overall credit outlook for China’s property sector to negative from stable.

Despite a slew of recent support measures, he expects a further decline in property sales nationwide as homebuyers’ concerns linger, especially as a negative credit development at Country Garden “has amplified their risk aversion”.


But a number of state-owned developers are less affected by the depreciation, as they are finding more domestic funding to stabilise their financials while diluting their foreign currency positions.

Li Xin, chair of China Resources Land, said the company had “actively reduced its non-[renminbi] net debt exposure” during the first half of the year. Foreign currency exposure at the end of June was 8.5 per cent of its total outstanding borrowings of Rmb231bn, down 8.3 percentage points from the end of 2022.

The company — a unit of China Resources, one of the 98 elite “central companies” under the direct control of Beijing — was able to issue six onshore bonds to raise Rmb10bn with coupon rates between 2.16 per cent and 3.39 per cent during the period. “[Renminbi] exchange rate fluctuations will not have a significant impact on the group’s financial status,” Li said.

The impact of the fluctuating dollar has been easing for Poly Developments, the largest listed developer by contracted sales and an entity connected to the People’s Liberations Army. Dollar-denominated bonds and short-term loans stood at slightly more than $1bn, down from $1.5bn a year ago.

Longfor, one of the few mainland private developers with investable corporate ratings from the three global agencies, is trying to manage currency fluctuation risks by hedging and gradually cutting back on debts denominated in US and Hong Kong dollars. The ratio of foreign currency-denominated borrowings is now 21.6 per cent, down 5.4 points from three years ago, with 97 per cent covered by rate swaps as of the end of June.

Despite the pessimistic outlook in the real estate sector, it is unlikely the central bank will take on much more risk subject to exchange rate fluctuations, analysts said.

“I believe US dollar-denominated debt from property developers is no longer a consideration for the PBoC in terms of currency,” Ju Wang, head of greater China forex and rates strategy at BNP Paribas, told Nikkei Asia.

“Even though the foreign exchange losses are quite large, the issue remaining is now only for a few distressed ones. Many others have been decreasing their positions or hedging their foreign currency exposures.”